| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 短期偏强 | 去产能反内卷带动黑色系上行，市场情绪转强。钢材基本面变化不大，钢 | | 螺纹钢 | 厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本 | | | 持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好，供需矛盾比较有限。基差修复背景叠 | | | 加预期改善，行情短期偏强运行。【3060，3100】 | | 热卷 短期偏强 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。基本面变化不大，上行主要受情绪改善推 | | | 动，短期表现或偏强。【3190，3230】 | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | 铁矿石 区间参与 | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构环比转 | | | 弱。观点：短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【720,750】 | | 焦炭 震荡 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， | | | 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供需变化不 ...

生活用纸 2025 年 07 月 07 日 豪悦护理（605009.SH） 制造强者品牌启新章 投资要点： ➢ 吸收性卫生用品制造龙头，自主品牌加快布局。公司是国内个人卫生 护理用品领域领先的制造商，产品涵盖婴儿纸尿裤、成人纸尿裤、经期裤、 卫生巾、湿巾等一次性卫生用品。公司以 ODM 起家，多年沉淀研发制造优 势领先，成功绑定 Babycare 等优质客户，在婴儿纸尿裤领域较早研发新型 无木浆多维复合芯体、也是行业内较早实现经期裤规模化生产和销售的企 业。近年加快自主品牌布局，目前拥有纸尿裤、成人纸尿裤、湿巾自主品 牌，2024 年公告收购湖北丝宝集团、旗下拥有洁婷卫生巾品牌，正式进军 国内卫生巾自主品牌领域。2024 年，公司实现营收 29.29 亿元、同比+6.25%， 归母净利 3.88 亿元、同比-11.65%，25Q1 营收、归母净利分别同比+42.42%、 +5.67%。 ➢ 纸尿裤行业价升驱动为主，25 年公司主业经营有望回暖。据欧睿，2024 年中国纸尿裤行业零售规模约 411 亿元，同比-6.9%，其中销售量下滑 6.9%、 均价基本持平；欧睿预计未来 5 年中国纸尿裤行业 CAGR 约- ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 基础化工 证券研究报告 D-阿洛酮糖获批，TDI、DMF 价格上涨 上周指 25 年 6 月 23-29 日（下同），本周指 25 年 6 月 30 日-7 月 6 日（下同）。 本周重点新闻跟踪 7 月 2 日，国家卫健委官网发布《关于 D—阿洛酮糖等 20 种"三新食品"的公 告》，根据《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定，审评机构组织专家对 D-阿洛酮 糖等 5 种物质申请作为新食品原料，氨基肽酶等 9 种物质申请作为食品添加剂新品 种，月桂酸铵等 6 种物质申请作为食品相关产品新品种的安全性评估材料进行审查 并通过。 本周重点产品价格跟踪点评 本周 WTI 油价上涨 1.5%，为 66.5 美元/桶。 重点关注子行业：本周 TDI/DMF/乙二醇/电石法 PVC 价格分别上涨 6.7%/5.1%/0.5%/0.1%；VE/重质纯碱/轻质纯碱/聚合 MDI/醋酸/纯 MDI/钛白粉/VA/橡 胶/烧碱价格分别下跌 7.6%/7.4%/5.5%/4.3%/2.3%/1.8%/1.5%/0.8%/0.7%/0.5%；氨纶/乙烯 法 PVC/尿素/固体蛋氨酸/液体蛋氨酸/粘胶长丝/粘胶 ...

PTA：供需恶化预期下，TA9-1价差或继续压缩 MEG：供需利好有限，MEG震荡整理为主 正信期货聚酯周报 20250707 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势整体趋于缓和，且下周OPEC+将召开会议，预计短期油价偏弱运行。PX方面，PX供需基 本面维持去库，但原油预期偏弱，同时终端支撑不佳，PX缺乏持续利好支撑，预计短期偏弱运行。 供应端：PTA：逸盛海南有提负预期，以及独山能源重启，PTA有增量预期。乙二醇：国产量快速提升， 进口收沙特装置影响由缩量预期，乙二醇总供应增幅有限。 需求端：逸盛海南、逸盛大连、重庆万凯以及部分短纤工厂计划进入7月后减产、检修，聚酯产能利用率 高位下滑预期较强。当前纺织市场谨慎偏空，终端消费持续疲软叠加传统生产淡季，下游订单表现可持 续性不足。随着淡季深入，订单表现欠佳，秋冬打样氛围清淡，终端需求持续走弱，后市来看织造行业 仍存降负预期。 策略：PTA：PTA供应有提升预期，终端季节性淡季来临 ...

Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is entering a new cycle due to the simultaneous decline in pig production capacity and the turning point in chicken prices, with a stronger supply-demand imbalance leading to potential price drops and reduced profits for farmers [1] - The supply side shows steady growth in market pig supply and increasing fat pig inventory, while the demand side is currently weak due to the summer off-season, resulting in a challenging pricing environment [1] - Policies are being implemented to optimize production capacity, including a reduction in the target for breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million and stricter environmental regulations [1] Chicken Industry Insights - The lowest point for yellow chicken prices may have passed, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year due to improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - The current yellow chicken production capacity is at a low level, and the price elasticity is primarily influenced by demand-side changes, with potential for price increases in 2025 [2] - The industry is facing challenges with many producers experiencing losses, which may limit their willingness to invest in new stock, while recent bankruptcies among top companies could further reduce supply [2] Company Analysis Pig Farming Business - The company is integrating farmer resources and innovatively entrusting the breeding of sows to farm owners, which enhances farmer participation and allows for rapid expansion of output [3] - The company has developed a competitive breeding system that reduces the age at which pigs are ready for market by 12 days and lowers feed conversion ratios, resulting in significant cost advantages [3] - Through precise management practices, the company has achieved a reduction in feed consumption per sow and improved feed formulation, maintaining industry-leading cost levels despite unfavorable raw material conditions [3] Chicken Business - The company has established a leading research and development system in yellow chicken breeding, with a diverse genetic resource pool that meets market demands [4] - The company's market share in yellow chicken has doubled from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by an optimized product matrix [4] - The company is focusing on developing medium and slow-growing chicken products to align with changing consumer preferences and improve product quality [4] Slaughtering Business - The company is expanding its slaughtering and processing operations to create a comprehensive food ecosystem, leveraging vertical integration to enhance efficiency [5] - Collaborations with leading international firms are being utilized to adopt advanced technologies and management practices in food manufacturing [5] Investment Outlook - The new cycle logic in the pig farming sector is strengthening, with expectations of production capacity fluctuations and clearer cyclical trends [6] - The company is projected to achieve an average profit of approximately 300 RMB per pig, supporting a market valuation of 330 billion RMB based on expected output [6] - Given the anticipated market conditions, the company's stock price could see significant upside potential, with a target price exceeding 140 RMB, translating to over 154 HKD [6]

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is pp2509. The Middle - East conflict has led to significant cost fluctuations, but from a fundamental perspective, over - capacity has further intensified the supply - demand pressure. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, with a concentrated release in June and July, increasing production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load remains stable. Supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is only slightly improved [1]. - Polyethylene is also in an oscillating downward phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The contract is 12509. The Middle - East conflict has caused cost fluctuations, but fundamentally, the supply - demand situation remains weak due to over - capacity. In 2025, new device installations will continue throughout the year, resulting in huge production and sales pressure. The existing production load is acceptable, and supply is higher than in previous years, while demand is in a off - season [7]. - In the first half of 2025, although the prices of polyolefins declined as expected, the decline was not large compared to other chemicals. PP showed an oscillating downward trend, while L had a more fluent decline. In Q2, macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict dominated, causing polyolefins to fluctuate widely. Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the impact of trade wars and geopolitical issues fades, the focus may shift back to the fundamentals, which still feature high production and a balanced supply - demand situation. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and cost disturbances such as those from crude oil and methanol need to be noted [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price: In Q1, polyolefin prices oscillated downward, with a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to increased supply pressure and a slowdown in downstream demand. In Q2, they fluctuated widely due to macro - factors such as trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The 12505 contract rebounded due to strong demand for agricultural films in North China [8][14]. - Basis: In mid - January, the basis of polyolefins declined, especially for L. In February and March, the basis changed little. After late March, the basis trends of PP and L diverged, with PP's spot price being stronger and L's basis oscillating downward [14]. - Spread: The PF59 monthly spread showed an upward trend, especially in March and April, mainly reflecting the expected pressure from future production [14]. - Disk Spread: Since January, the L - P spread has been declining, mainly due to the alleviation of L's supply shortage after new device installations. After the Spring Festival, L strengthened again due to better downstream demand. In April, the L - PP spread further declined and then rebounded slightly [26]. - Methanol Price: Methanol prices have been weakening since January, but rebounded strongly after the Israel - Iran conflict, causing MTO profits to deteriorate [26]. 2. Supply Domestic Capacity Installation - PP: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that over 700 million tons of new devices would be installed, mainly in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.855 million tons of 6 new devices were installed, slightly lower than expected, but the capacity pressure continued to increase. The main installation processes were oil - based (1.855 million tons) and coal - based (1 million tons) [47]. - PE: At the beginning of the year, it was expected that 5.8 million tons of new PE devices would be installed, with a relatively even quarterly distribution. In the first half of the year, a total of 3.03 million tons of new devices were installed, exceeding half of the plan. The installation progress was smooth, and the pressure of new installations will continue in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, more standard - grade products were installed, while in the second half, non - standard products will be the focus [48]. Production - End Profits - Crude Oil: In Q1, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. The price increase in December was driven by increased heating demand and concerns about supply shortages. In January, prices started to decline due to factors such as the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel. In Q2, prices fluctuated widely due to trade wars and the Israel - Iran conflict. The production profit of polyolefins from oil first recovered and then deteriorated, but the pressure on enterprises was not significant [62]. - Coal: High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits [62]. - Methanol: Since late February, methanol prices have first rebounded and then declined, causing MTO profits to first deteriorate and then recover slightly, but overall profits were not good [62]. Domestic Production Volume and Load - PP: Since 2025, due to good production - end profits, enterprises have been more willing to start production, and the number of maintenance days was less than expected. With the high - load operation of existing capacity and the installation of new devices, PP production has continuously reached new highs. As of June, the total production volume was 19.4186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. All production processes, including oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based, have increased production [102]. - PE: PE supply has also increased significantly, but production decreased in May due to increased maintenance. As of June, the total PE production volume was 16.1505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.05%. The increase mainly came from LLD and LD products [110]. Import and Export - PP: As of May, the import volume was 1.3949 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.17%, and the export volume was 1.3286 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.56%. The net import volume was 26,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.71%. Affected by the squeeze of domestic supply, the import - export pattern of PP has further reversed, and China has become a net exporter since March [125]. - PE: As of May, the cumulative domestic PE import volume was 5.9651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the export volume was 415,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. The cumulative net import volume was 5.5499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The import - export of PE has both increased, and the pattern is relatively stable, but the reduction in imports caused by previous trade conflicts will start to be reflected in June [131]. 3. Demand PP Demand - In the first half of the year, demand was weak during the Spring Festival, but recovered quickly after the festival and entered the peak season in March and April. However, in Q2, demand from downstream industries gradually weakened, and export demand was affected by trade wars. In the future, as the off - season continues, market demand will remain weak [155]. PE Demand - PE demand has more obvious seasonal characteristics. In January, it was in the off - season, but after the Spring Festival, demand for agricultural films recovered, driving up prices. However, after April and May, demand declined as the agricultural film season ended [209]. 4. Inventory - PP Inventory: During the Spring Festival, inventory accumulated seasonally but less than expected. In March, inventory decreased due to high downstream demand. In Q2, inventory remained at a high level, reflecting the high - supply situation [221].

Core Insights - The report by AlixPartners predicts that out of 129 electric vehicle brands in China, only 10 to 15 will achieve financial sustainability by 2030, indicating a significant market consolidation [1][3] - The surviving brands are expected to capture 76% of the Chinese electric vehicle market, equating to approximately 20 million units sold, with an average annual sales of 1.02 million units per brand [1] Industry Dynamics - The integration of Chinese electric vehicle brands is anticipated to be slower than in other regions due to local government support for less profitable brands, influenced by economic and employment considerations [3] - The average capacity utilization rate for Chinese automakers is projected to drop to 50% in 2024, the lowest in a decade, complicating profitability for many companies [3] Competitive Landscape - Despite calls from regulators to halt price wars, indirect price competition continues through methods like insurance subsidies and zero-interest loans, impacting profit margins [5] - Chinese manufacturers have innovated operational and manufacturing models, reducing new vehicle development cycles from five years to about eight months, and lowering overall costs by 30% compared to global averages [5] Global Market Implications - By 2030, surviving Chinese brands are expected to double their market share in Europe to 10%, while European automakers will see a decline in capacity utilization [7][8] - Chinese automakers are projected to add 800,000 units of production capacity in Europe, while European manufacturers will close down 400,000 units of capacity, equivalent to 1.5 large factories [8] Strategic Shifts - The growth rate for new car sales in the Chinese domestic market is expected to slow to around 3%, prompting leading companies to accelerate international expansion [10] - Chinese brands are anticipated to capture 67% of the domestic market by 2025, reflecting a significant shift in market dynamics [12] - The global ADAS market is projected to reach $50 billion by 2030, with China expected to account for 45% of this market, highlighting the competitive edge in advanced technologies [12]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,250.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.57% observed [1] - Demand for synthetic rubber is weak, particularly in the semi-steel tire sector, leading to difficulties in inventory reduction [1] - The supply of butadiene is expected to continue to decline, with a significant gap between butadiene and downstream capacity, which may lead to price volatility due to low circulation [1] Group 2 - Recent weak performance in the raw material market and ongoing selling pressure have led to cautious market sentiment, with a slight decrease in overall inventory for domestic butadiene rubber producers [2] - Tire manufacturers are experiencing a decrease in capacity utilization rates, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which negatively impacts overall production [2] - As maintenance periods conclude, production is expected to recover, potentially boosting overall capacity utilization for tire manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Supply pressure has slightly eased, but demand improvement remains limited, with cost factors expected to support a stabilization and potential rebound in the market [3]