Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: Corn prices showed a weakening trend on Monday. Futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices declined. Mid - term operations should maintain a bearish outlook, focusing on the impact of new grain costs on forward prices [1] - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to improved export prospects and hot weather in the production areas. Domestic bean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, and the supply concerns eased. The strategy for bean meal is short - term trading [1] - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to improved export expectations and a positive MPOB report. Domestic palm oil led the increase among the three major oils, reaching a three - year high. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1] - Eggs: The main egg contract continued to decline on Monday. Although spot prices rose slightly, the short - term fundamentals remained weak. However, there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, but the high point is likely to be lower than last year [1][2] - Pigs: The main pig futures contract rebounded in the morning and then declined on Monday. The supply side exerts pressure on pig prices, while policies provide support. The market is expected to remain volatile [2] Group 3: Market Information - Indonesia: The Indonesian trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local sales to lower prices and maintain the DMO level at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January [3] - Soybean Pressing: The domestic soybean pressing volume decreased slightly last week to 2.18 million tons and is expected to rebound to 2.3 million tons this week [3] - Malaysian Palm Oil: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month, inventory increased by 4.02% month - on - month (lower than Reuters' expectation), imports decreased by 12.82% month - on - month, and exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month [3] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][17][23][25] Group 5: Research Team - Wang Na: Director of the Agricultural Product Research Department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won many awards and has rich media experience [27] - Hou Xueling: Soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [27] - Kong Hailan: Researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with experience as a guest analyst on financial channels and participation in many research achievements [27]

1. Index Trends - On August 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points with a trading volume of 751.329 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to close at 11291.43 points with a trading volume of 1075.644 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.55% with a trading volume of 401.163 billion yuan, opening at 6850.57, closing at 6943.94, with a daily high of 6957.4 and a low of 6850.57 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% with a trading volume of 277.034 billion yuan, opening at 6335.43, closing at 6391.76, with a daily high of 6404.83 and a low of 6335.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 360.686 billion yuan, opening at 4110.29, closing at 4122.51, with a daily high of 4134.25 and a low of 4103.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.03% with a trading volume of 90.334 billion yuan, opening at 2791.35, closing at 2789.9, with a daily high of 2800.89 and a low of 2783.65 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 105.81 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 68.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 17.54 points from the previous close, with sectors such as food and beverage, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 0.73 points from the previous close, with sectors such as food and beverage, non - banking finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banking pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 4.24, IM01 was - 75.76, IM02 was - 265.4, and IM03 was - 447.73 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 6.74, IC01 was - 72.91, IC02 was - 228.99, and IC03 was - 368.34 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was 0.18, IF01 was - 11.76, IF02 was - 41.12, and IF03 was - 73.78 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.63, IH01 was 1.52, IH02 was 3.18, and IH03 was 2.99 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data for IM rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [24][25]. - Data for IC rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [26]. - Data for IF rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [27]. - Data for IH rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 11, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 9,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.83%, and the position increasing by 33,258 lots to 272,000 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,540 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.34%, and the position increasing by 2,143 lots to 139,800 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton. [2] - Industrial silicon production in the north and south continued to resume, and the production of downstream crystalline silicon increased significantly, resulting in a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces have put forward a joint initiative against involution, and relevant news may become an important driver for guiding the industrial silicon market in the short term. After the polysilicon market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market is trading a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices showed different trends on August 11. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, and polysilicon fluctuated higher. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is a double - increase, and it is affected by coal - coke sentiment and industry association initiatives. The polysilicon market is affected by news such as capacity storage. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,585 yuan/ton on August 8 to 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 355 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 8,645 yuan/ton to 8,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. [4] - **Industrial Silicon Spot**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions showed different degrees of increase or remained stable. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China increased from 9,100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang increased from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,790 yuan/ton on August 8 to 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11, an increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the settlement price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,790 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. [4] - **Polysilicon Spot**: The prices of some types of polysilicon increased, such as the price of N - type granular silicon material increasing from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged. [4] - **Organic Silicon Spot**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton. [4] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 420 to 50,760; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons; the factory inventory increased by 4,100 to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 to 444,000 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,080 to 4,700; the weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons; the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [19][22] - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main producing areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [25][27][28] 4.有色金属团队介绍 - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience, mainly responsible for precious metals and serving as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, with in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, with a focus on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy. [33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 11, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 74,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 72,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 67,490 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [2]. - CATL suspended mining operations after its mining license for the Yichun project expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, which has little impact on the company's overall operation [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. The social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with upstream and other links reducing inventory and downstream replenishing inventory [2]. - Against the backdrop of anti - involution and booming demand, short - term production suspension has pushed up market sentiment, driving up prices and volatility. However, the impact of the suspended mines on production is about 10,000 tons of LCE per month, and the suspension time is not clear. As prices rise, some enterprises are resuming production, and overseas imports may also gradually increase [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - **Price Changes**: The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices all increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons [2]. - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations in Yichun and is applying for a mining license renewal, with little impact on overall operations [2]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Supply increased week - on - week and is expected to rise in August. Demand for cathode materials is expected to increase in August. Social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term production suspension boosts prices, but the impact of suspended mines is limited, and production resumption and increased imports may occur as prices rise [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Mineral Prices**: The main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures, as well as prices of various lithium ores, all increased from August 8 to August 11 [4]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices all rose during the same period [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials also increased [4]. - **Cell and Battery Prices**: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged from August 1 to August 8 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [8][10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and others [15][16]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate [20][23][26]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 2024 to August 2025 [33][35]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [37][38]. 4. Research Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: The director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won multiple industry awards [41]. - **Wang Heng**: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, and has made contributions in risk management for listed companies [42]. - **Zhu Xi**: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel, and has written many in - depth reports [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the black commodity sector. However, it provides individual outlooks for each commodity: - Steel: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Iron ore: Expected to be volatile [1] - Coking coal: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Coke: Expected to be volatile and moderately strong [1] - Manganese silicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to be volatile and slightly strong [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It considers factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, price movements, and market sentiment to provide short - term outlooks for each commodity. For example, steel exports are high, which eases domestic supply pressure, while the market has expectations for anti - over - competition policies and potential production restrictions due to the approaching parade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.15%) from the previous trading day. Spot prices also increased slightly, and trading volume rebounded. National building material and hot - rolled coil inventories increased. However, high steel exports and market expectations for policies and production restrictions are likely to support the short - term upward trend of the rebar futures [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 798 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (1%) from the previous day. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. Iron ore demand and inventory levels also changed. Considering the market's focus on parade - related production restrictions, the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1256 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton (2.36%). Some coal mines in Shanxi are controlling production, and coke prices are rising for the sixth time, which boosts the demand for coking coal. The short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%). Rising coking coal prices have increased production costs, and coke prices are rising to transfer the cost pressure. With the approaching parade, market sentiment is positive, and the short - term outlook is volatile and moderately strong [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 6100 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. Supply is increasing, and demand is also picking up during the steel procurement season. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract closing at 5830 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. Cost support has increased, and demand has also shown a slight increase. The short - term outlook is volatile and slightly strong [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their环比 changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon over different time periods [19][20][22][24] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [28][32][33][34][36][37][39] - **3.3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][44][46] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格弱势波动，09 合约收盘价 1722 元/吨，跌幅 0.98%；01 合约收盘 价 1751 元/吨，跌幅 0.34%。现货市场同步偏弱，主流地区现货价格下调 10~50 元/ | | | | 吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1730 元/吨、1740 元/吨，日环比分别跌 | | | | 30 元/吨、40 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，行业日产量昨日 19.30 万 | | | 尿素 | 吨，日环比增 0.12 万吨。需求端跟进依旧不足，农业需求淡季，工业需求支撑有限， | 震荡 | | | 尿素企业新单成交略显乏力。昨日主流地区现货产销率分化明显，仅个别地区能达到 | | | | 100%及以上。出口消息扰动仍存，但当前市场情绪回落，难寻利好支撑。预计短期尿 | | | | 素期货价格偏弱震荡运行，关注主力合约移仓换月影响、出口政策相关动态、现货市 | | | | 场成交氛围。 | | | | ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated August 12, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures and related price data [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - The closing price of I05 is 768.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 is 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan; I01 is 789.0 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread of I05 - I09 is -28.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; I09 - I01 is 7.5 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan; I01 - I05 is 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] 2. Basis Data 2.1 Basis Data Table - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafen), its price is 879 yuan/ton today, up 6.0 yuan from the previous day, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other varieties like BRBF, Newman fines also have corresponding price and basis changes [6] 2.2 Basis Policy Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The number of deliverable varieties has increased by 4, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0. The brand premiums of existing varieties have been adjusted, and the quality differences and premiums of substitutes have been modified [11] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread of PB lump - PB fines is 142.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan; PB fines - FMG mixed fines is 70.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan. There are also spreads and changes for other variety combinations [13] 4. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional titles in the iron ore and related industries [24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Cotton: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a slightly upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [1] - Sugar: Expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - **Cotton**: Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with a high probability of a September interest rate cut and potentially three cuts this year, supporting US cotton prices. Domestically, the 09 contract's position reduction has slowed, and the position and position/warehouse receipt ratio are relatively high. The current low commercial cotton inventory (a decrease of over 600,000 tons in July) provides support for cotton prices. The 01 contract faces the pressure of expected high new - cotton yields and low opening prices, but the 2025/26 domestic cotton supply - demand pattern has no major contradictions, and the current cotton price is at a relatively low level [1] - **Sugar**: Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production has dropped below 150,000 tons, a record low in over 100 years. The spot sugar market has average transactions and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. On the international front, the raw sugar price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to buying support, and with low Brazilian inventories, there is less willingness for prices to hit new lows. In the domestic market, there is a lack of new drivers near the previous lows, so short - term narrow - range fluctuations are expected [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.36% to 66.84 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.15% to 13,680 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 14,595 lots to 246,200 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index Class 3128B was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [1] - For sugar, Cuba's 2024/25 sugar production was below 150,000 tons. The Guangxi sugar - making group's quote was 5,900 - 5,980 yuan per ton, with only Nanhua raising the price by 10 yuan per ton; the Yunnan sugar - making group's quote was 5,740 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the processing sugar factory's mainstream quote was 6,000 - 6,500 yuan per ton, with most prices adjusting by 10 - 150 yuan per ton, up or down [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan, down 40 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1,281 yuan, down 257 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,047 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,161 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 106 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main - contract basis was 397 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 3. Market Information - On August 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,172, down 80 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 282 [3] - On August 11, the cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions were: 15,089 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On August 11, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.7, down 0.1; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, up 0.3; the staple - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the sugar spot prices were 5,960 yuan per ton in Nanning, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and 5,970 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3] - On August 11, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,240, down 305 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4] 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented including those showing cotton and sugar's main - contract closing prices, basis, spreads, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17] 5. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures such as urea and soda - ash glass [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market comes from three logics: long - term, the market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards the consumption - promotion area and domestic inflation to rise after the Sino - US relationship eases, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend is high, and infrastructure investment on the demand side increases, which benefits upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, capital market liquidity is relatively abundant, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation under the weak US dollar and improved enterprise deposit and loan data, leading to more entity liquidity flowing into the stock market. The market is currently divided, and investors can adjust their positions after the policy and market trends become clearer [1] - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, but in the short term, after the "anti - involution" policy expectations have basically ended, and with weak credit data expectations in July, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the A - share market rose with heavy volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.99% with a trading volume of 1.85 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices had different increases. The育儿 subsidy system has been officially implemented nationwide. The market expects the central bank to buy national bonds to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support plans. The market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can wait for clearer trends [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 11, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased. The bond market is under pressure from the strong stock market but may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, IH rose 0.14%, IF rose 0.53%, IC rose 1.15%, and IM rose 1.73% [3] - **Stock Indices**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, the SSE 50 rose 0.03%, the SSE 300 rose 0.43%, the CSI 500 rose 1.08%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.55% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From August 8 to 11, 2025, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.10%, T fell 0.13%, and TL fell 0.60% [3] Market News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)", clarifying the scope of export goods, cross - border sales of services and intangible assets, and the applicable rules for multiple tax rates and levy rates [4] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts and related stock indices [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [2] - Asphalt: Volatile [2] - Polyester: Volatile [2] - PX: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [4] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefins: Volatile [6] - PVC: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Monday, oil prices stopped falling. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. The market is waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may ease sanctions on Russian oil. However, there is still uncertainty in the market, and oil prices need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell on Monday. Supply is sufficient, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in summer is weakening. The upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Monday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves. The asphalt market in August is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a range [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures rose on Monday. The supply of PTA and EG is recovering, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the spot prices of PTA and EG will fluctuate in the short term [2][4]. - **PX**: The supply and demand of PX continue to recover, and the PXN is slightly strong. PX prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber futures rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, demand expectations are improving, and inventories are stable. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian methanol plants has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly, suppressing near - month prices. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the downward space is limited. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure and fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The检修 season is coming to an end, and supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, demand is expected to increase. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **PVC**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and inventories are expected to decline slowly. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the market's short - selling power may recover. PVC prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: WTI September contract closed up $0.08 to $63.96/barrel, a 0.13% increase; Brent October contract closed up $0.04 to $66.63/barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2509 closed at 494 yuan/barrel, up 1.5 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. OPEC+ July production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting 300,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day. Russia increased production by 70,000 barrels per day but was still below the quota [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 1.39% to 2,760 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.92% to 3,463 yuan/ton. Supply is sufficient, and the spot premium of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a four - month low [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract (BU2509) fell 0.51% to 3,512 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.47% at 4,706 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.68% at 4,414 yuan/ton; the main PX contract (509) closed up 0.77% at 6,778 yuan/ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu have declined [2]. - **PX**: Supply and demand continue to recover, and prices are expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts (RU2601, NR, BR) rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2,382 yuan/ton. Iranian plant load has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 is 7,020 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - **PVC**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China has little change. Supply remains high, and demand is gradually picking up [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If no peace agreement is reached, sanctions on Moscow may be tightened [10]. - OPEC+ July crude oil production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day, and non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the historical price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [12][14][16][18][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [57][62][63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the historical production profit charts of various energy and chemical products [66][67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy and chemicals, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [75].