Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On July 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.42% to close at 3505.0 points, with a trading volume of 646.852 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% to close at 10744.56 points, with a trading volume of 965.196 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.3%, with a trading volume of 347.378 billion yuan. The opening price was 6452.0, the closing price was 6442.83, the highest price was 6472.53, and the lowest price was 6381.56 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.03%, with a trading volume of 246.077 billion yuan. The opening price was 6018.63, the closing price was 6018.76, the highest price was 6049.79, and the lowest price was 5973.8 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.38%, with a trading volume of 79.806 billion yuan. The opening price was 2758.72, the closing price was 2747.23, the highest price was 2765.5, and the lowest price was 2731.32 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 19.48 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Computer, Communication, and Medicine & Biology had a significant positive impact on the index, while sectors such as Utilities, Basic Chemicals, and Power Equipment had a significant negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 2.1 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Electronics, Computer, and Machinery had a significant positive impact on the index, while sectors such as Utilities, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Coal had a significant negative impact [2]. - The SSE 300 Index increased by 1.39 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Communication, Electronics, and Computer had a significant positive impact on the index, while sectors such as Food & Beverage, Non - Banking Finance, and Banking had a significant negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 10.58 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Computer and Medicine & Biology had a significant positive impact on the index, while sectors such as Food & Beverage, Non - Banking Finance, and Banking had a significant negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 12.73, IM01 was - 80.73, IM02 was - 150.28, and IM03 was - 328.84 [12]. - For IC futures, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 8.86, IC01 was - 64.74, IC02 was - 118.36, and IC03 was - 241.68 [12]. - For IF futures, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 8.45, IF01 was - 23.55, IF02 was - 35.98, and IF03 was - 68.25 [12]. - For IH futures, the average daily basis for IH00 was - 7.04, IH01 was - 10.23, IH02 was - 11.38, and IH03 was - 9.94 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at 15 - minute intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [22][24][26].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.2%，成交额 1.64 万亿元。中 | | | | 1000 0.3%，中证 500 0.03%，沪深 300 证 指数下跌 指数下跌 指数上涨 | | | | 0.03%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.38%。通信板块领涨，多数板块回调，板块轮动 | | | | 继续。6 月经济和金融数据发布，二季度我国 GDP 同比 5.2%，6 月社零同 | | | | 比 4.8%，规模以上工业增加值同比 6.8%，固定资产投资累计同比 2.8%， | | | | 房地产开发投资累计同比-11.2%，需求扰动仍在，投资继续回落；金融数据 | | | | 方面，M1 同比 4.6%，表现亮眼，企业短期贷款同比多增明显。近期中央财 | | | | 经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五 | | | 股指 | 统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企稳的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The September contract of corn showed an increase in positions and an upward trend on Monday, with the futures price closing as a doji with a long lower shadow. After the main contract broke through the support level last week and the futures price dropped rapidly, it was significantly at a discount to the spot price. This situation attracted buying on Monday, driving the futures price to rebound. However, the spot price of corn in the Northeast and North China continued to decline over the weekend, and the market supply was relatively loose. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 for the September contract, and consider short - selling after the rebound ends [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean meal and soybeans closed lower on Monday as the market expected good growth of US soybeans. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week, and higher than the market expectation of 67% and 68% in the same period last year. The market expects the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, a 4% month - on - month decrease. Domestically, the protein meal prices rose under the general upward trend of commodities, with rapeseed meal rising more than soybean meal. The operation idea is to maintain a long position in the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal [1]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The weakening of the Malaysian ringgit and the international oil price reaching a three - week high provided support. Domestically, the futures price of palm oil continued to rise, and the increase in palm oil and soybean oil was better than that of rapeseed oil. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading on a single - side basis [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Monday. After the egg price dropped to a new low this year last week, the terminal demand increased, boosting the short - term spot price to rebound from the low level. After the price rebound, the demand became stable. In the future, after the plum - rain season ends, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season of the year, but considering the pressure on the egg price from the supply side, the expected peak price will be lower than that of last year [1]. - Pigs: The main 2509 contract of live pigs weakened in the morning and rebounded slightly at a low level in the afternoon on Monday, finally closing down 0.42%. The downstream demand was weak, and factors such as high temperatures and school holidays led to a significant decline in the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses. The pig price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - On July 13, the EU and Indonesia reached a political agreement on promoting the EU - Indonesia Free Trade Agreement, which is regarded as an effort by the EU to find a new balance in the global trade pattern [3]. - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3]. - Analysts expect the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members is expected to be 1.374 billion pounds [3]. - In the first half of this year, the decline in the import prices of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans in China pulled down the overall import growth rate by 2.7 percentage points [4]. - The Chinese and US teams are accelerating the implementation of the results of the London framework, and China hopes that the US will continue to cooperate with China to promote the global trade system to return to fairness and openness [4]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - Contract spreads: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the spreads is given [5][6][8] - Contract basis: The report provides charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the basis is given [13][14][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 14, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 3.71% to 66,480 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 64,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 900 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons [3]. - Affected by the news from Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, market sentiment was influenced. In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. The exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - The news hype affects market sentiment, the warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which stimulate the price to rise in the short term. However, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is relatively high. Attention can still be paid to short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of the price, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 66,480 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 66,200 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 682 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,450 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,650 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 64,650 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 63,050 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 51,970 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) remained at 8 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 50,550 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan to - 7,230 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 13 yuan to - 227.2 yuan [5]. - Precursors & Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) remained at 75,405 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) remained at 75,860 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained at 71,470 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) remained at 89,795 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 200 yuan to 106,360 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased by 100 yuan to 115,255 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained at 111,070 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) remained at 142,880 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 220 yuan to 31,275 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) increased by 215 yuan to 29,845 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 210 yuan to 27,590 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (power type) remained at 32,250 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) increased by 250 yuan to 29,250 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained at 220,400 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells & Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells remained at 0.383 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at 0.4 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan to 4.31 yuan/piece; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained at 0.321 yuan/Wh; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) remained at 0.33 yuan/Wh; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 5.52 yuan/Ah; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan to 0.3 yuan/Wh [5] 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16] - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21] - Precursors & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39] - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [41][42]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report. - The core view of the report is that on July 14, the industrial silicon futures contract 2509 closed at 8,695 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.27%, and the open interest increased by 35,078 lots to 403,000 lots. The reference price of the industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,938 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon increased to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a discount to a premium of 435 yuan/ton. The polysilicon futures contract 2508 closed at 42,090 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.81%, and the open interest decreased by 7,597 lots to 78,328 lots. The SMM price of N-type polysilicon feedstock rose to 41,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon feedstock rose to 41,500 yuan/ton, with the spot shifting from a premium to a discount of 265 yuan/ton to the front-month contract. Market news indicates that Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices and major manufacturers may not resume production, causing the price of industrial silicon to continue rising due to increased costs. However, there are many market disagreements, limited overall market transmission, and high difficulty in sustaining the upward trend. The strategy of shorting at the upper end of the trading range can be continued. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved, and market transactions are almost stagnant. Futures follow the spot prices and are more driven by speculative demand. In the short term, the market is filled with true and false news, increasing the volatility of the trading volume and the risk of unilateral trading [2] Group 2 - On July 14, the industrial silicon futures settlement price for the front-month contract decreased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of the 421 grade silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a discount of 65 yuan/ton to a premium of 435 yuan/ton. The price of the front-month contract for polysilicon futures decreased by 5,535 yuan/ton, the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon feedstock remained unchanged at 41,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 170 yuan/ton to a discount of 265 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil in the organic silicon market increased by 2,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of other products remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,800 tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased to 274,000 tons [4]. Group 3 - The report includes various price charts and data comparisons of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, and cost-profit analysis. The price charts are divided into four categories: industrial silicon and cost, downstream products, inventory, and cost-profit [5][13][22]. - The price charts for industrial silicon and its cost include prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - The price charts for downstream products include prices of DMC, silicone products, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - The inventory charts cover industrial silicon and polysilicon inventories in different locations and warehouses, as well as total social inventories [4]. - The cost-profit charts analyze the cost and profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon in different regions and production locations [28][36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to a lack of substantial positive drivers in the domestic market, with attention on daily production changes, spot trading, and overall market sentiment [1] - Soda ash futures prices are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillating approach, as market sentiment has improved but fundamental drivers remain weak, and focus should be on supply levels, downstream production, macro sentiment, and overall market sentiment [1] - In the short term, glass futures prices may continue their bullish trend, but industry supply - demand contradictions are difficult to fundamentally change, and investors should be cautious about this rise, paying attention to overall market sentiment, the macro - environment, and production policies [1] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Urea**: On Monday, the urea futures price oscillated weakly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1764 yuan/ton, a slight 0.64% decline. The spot market also weakened, with mainstream regional prices dropping by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly to 19.53 tons per day, and demand sentiment weakened, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios between 30% - 40%. Export news will continue to have an impact, but the domestic market lacks positive drivers [1] - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed up 1.31% at 1241 yuan/ton. The spot market was mostly stable, with some regional prices still falling. The transaction price in the Hebei region for heavy soda ash increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1221 yuan/ton. Supply increased, with the industry's operating rate rising to 84.76%. Demand was average, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, but recent market sentiment improvement led to some demand release [1] - **Glass**: On Monday, the glass futures price oscillated widely at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase. The spot market was stable, with the average domestic float glass price at 1174 yuan/ton, and some regions seeing a 10 - 20 yuan/ton increase. Glass daily melting remained stable at 15.84 tons, and demand sentiment improved recently, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios above 90% and Hubei's reaching 150% [1] Market Information - **Urea**: On July 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 2630, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0. The industry's daily production was 19.53 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons from the previous workday but an increase of 1.80 tons compared to the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 84.34%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. Small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1820 yuan/ton (- 40), Henan at 1840 yuan/ton (- 10), etc [4] - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On July 14, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 3394, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 576; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 797, unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash spot prices varied by region. The industry's operating rate was 84.76%, up from 82.58% the previous workday. The average price of the float glass market was 1174 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily production was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [6][7] Resource品团队研究成员介绍 - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards in relevant fields [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [21] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, ferroalloys, etc., and has won relevant honors [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated July 15, 2025, from Guangqi Research [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides comprehensive data on iron ore futures contracts, including prices, spreads, and basis, along with relevant contract adjustment information and graphical analysis [3][6][11] 3. Key Points by Content 3.1 Futures Contracts - I05 closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; I01 remained unchanged at 736.5 yuan/ton [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 was -49.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 30.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [3] 3.2 Basis - For various iron ore varieties, the basis values and their changes are presented. For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] 3.3 Contract Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - The brand premiums of some existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while others are 0 yuan/ton [11] - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators was adjusted, and a more detailed quality premium system was introduced [11] - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Variety Spreads - The spreads between different iron ore varieties are provided, such as the spread of PB lump - PB fines was 145.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan from the previous day [13] 3.5 Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [26]

1. Index Trends - On July 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to close at 3519.65 points, with a trading volume of 623.102 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to close at 10684.52 points, with a trading volume of 835.636 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.02%, with a trading volume of 302.637 billion yuan, opening at 6465.51, closing at 6462.31, with a daily high of 6474.93 and a low of 6443.56 [1] - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.1%, with a trading volume of 226.291 billion yuan, opening at 6033.18, closing at 6020.86, with a daily high of 6042.89 and a low of 6011.69 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.04%, with a trading volume of 90.039 billion yuan, opening at 2761.48, closing at 2757.81, with a daily high of 2774.23 and a low of 2757.81 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 1.21 points from the previous close. Machinery, power equipment, and automotive sectors significantly pulled the index up, while media, non - bank finance, and computer sectors pulled it down [2] - The CSI 500 rose - 6.22 points from the previous close. Pharmaceutical biology, machinery, and public utilities sectors significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, media, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 300 rose 2.86 points from the previous close. Banks, non - ferrous metals, and household appliances sectors significantly pulled the index up, while national defense and military industry, computer, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] - The SSE 50 rose 1.04 points from the previous close. Banks, pharmaceutical biology, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, food and beverage, and non - bank finance sectors pulled it down [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 13.34, IM01 was - 80.4, IM02 was - 149.25, and IM03 was - 329.11 [12] - IC00 average daily basis was - 9.63, IC01 was - 64.69, IC02 was - 114.85, and IC03 was - 238.97 [12] - IF00 average daily basis was - 8.32, IF01 was - 22.73, IF02 was - 32.29, and IF03 was - 61.46 [12] - IH00 average daily basis was - 6.87, IH01 was - 10.48, IH02 was - 11.07, and IH03 was - 9.58 [12] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides detailed data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [21][23][25]