1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.91% and a decrease in open interest by 16,085 lots to 379,800 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,111 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon rose to 8,700 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2508 closed at 42,945 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.5% and an increase in open interest by 1,962 lots to 71,783 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 555 yuan/ton [2]. - Market news indicates that Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices, and large - scale production cuts may not be restarted. As the cost of industrial silicon increases, its price continues to recover. However, there are many differences in the market, the overall transmission is limited, and it is difficult to continue to rise sharply. It is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved, and the market transactions are almost stagnant. The futures follow the spot price and are more based on the logic of speculative demand trading. In the short term, there are a lot of true and false news in the market, the volatility of the market increases, and the risk of chasing up rises [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,765 yuan/ton on July 15 to 8,680 yuan/ton on July 16, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The price of most spot varieties increased slightly, such as the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China rising from 8,900 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from - 60 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 43 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 42,470 yuan/ton on July 15 to 42,945 yuan/ton on July 16, an increase of 475 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The lowest deliverable price remained at 43,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 1,030 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market increased from 11,000 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of other organic silicon products remained unchanged [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, while the inventory of polysilicon increased [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][33].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面继续小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 弱势整理 | | | 价格下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 0.26%，持仓减少 1.68 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安 | | | | 普方坯价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.74 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量增加 3.19 万吨至 419.2 万吨，社库增加 8.64 万吨至 538.64 万吨， | | | | 厂库增加 14.8 万吨至 330.93 万吨，建材表需下降 13.71 万吨至 395.76 万吨。建材产量小幅回升，库存累 | | | | 积幅度加大，表需继续回落，市场供需有所趋弱。1-6 月地产、基建、制造业投资数据均有所走弱，对市 | | | | 场情绪形成一定影响。预计短期螺纹盘面或将弱势整理运行。 | ...

Research Views Corn - On Wednesday, the September corn contract first rose and then fell, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through the support level and declined rapidly, with the futures price significantly lower than the spot price. This attracted buying at the beginning of the week, driving the futures price up, but the rebound was limited, and the price was weak. The import corn auction on Tuesday had a negative impact on the market, with the futures market showing low - level fluctuations and the spot price also being average. Northeast deep - processing factories continued to lower their corn purchase prices, while the price in North China remained stable. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing factories decreased, and some enterprises' prices rebounded slightly. In the sales area, the corn price continued to fall. The futures price had been falling for many days, and the import corn auction had an average transaction rate, leading to faster sales by traders, but the downstream's purchasing attitude was lukewarm. Feed mills mainly used wheat, and corn was only for rigid - demand restocking. Technically, the September contract price was under pressure at the 2300 - yuan integer mark and was expected to continue to decline [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to hopes of increased US export demand. The US Department of Agriculture announced a 120,000 - ton large - order sale and a 219,000 - ton export to Mexico last Friday. The market was optimistic about the export sales report to be released on Thursday. On the 15th, the US and Indonesia reached an agreement where Indonesia promised to buy $15 billion worth of US energy products, $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft. Domestically, soybean meal fluctuated with a decreasing price volatility. Oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but the terminal's inquiry intention was low, mainly for short - term rigid - demand purchases, and the inventory of soybean meal was accumulating rapidly. Some factories suspended spot quotations or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market closely watched the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading idea was a slightly bullish oscillation, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal should be held [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose following the uptrend of the surrounding markets. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.29% - 6.2% month - on - month. SPPOMA data indicated that from July 1 - 15, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06%. The increase in production and slowdown in exports limited the rise of palm oil. Domestically, the oil market continued to show a differentiated trend. The decline in the outer - market oil price brought pressure and led to long - position profit - taking. The phenomenon of urgent delivery of soybean oil was still serious, and the inventory was accumulating. The palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, while the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. However, the recent improvement in the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market limited the rapeseed oil price. The oils mainly oscillated, and single - side intraday trading was recommended, with the 9 - 1 positive spreads held [1]. Egg - On Wednesday, the main egg 2509 contract oscillated weakly, closing down 0.66% at 3591 yuan per 500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price was 2.72 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous day. In the production area, the prices in some places were flat, and in the sales area, some prices were stable while some increased. After the plum - rain season, eggs would gradually enter the peak - demand season, but considering the supply - side pressure, the price peak was expected to be lower than last year. In the short term, the futures price would continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the egg's supply - demand structure and feed - raw material prices on the futures price [1][2]. Pig - On Wednesday, the main pig 2509 contract oscillated weakly during the session and declined from the phased high, closing down 1.68% at 14,010 yuan per ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the national average daily pig price was 14.42 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, and the price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was also down. The breeding end had a certain enthusiasm for selling, but the downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were making losses. Under the situation of oversupply, the pig price continued to decline. The futures price adjusted from the high due to the falling spot price. Considering the current fundamentals, there was no obvious change. With supply pressure and policy support, the pig price was expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. Market Information - Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on Wednesday to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, which would harm the interests of small farmers and producers. Ukraine is an important oil - seed producer and exporter in Europe [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - Russian agricultural consulting agency Sovecon raised its forecast for the 2025 grain total output to 130.5 million tons from the previous 129.5 million tons, and the wheat output forecast was raised to 83.6 million tons from 83 million tons [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the US renewable fuel blending credits in June increased compared to May. The ethanol (D6) blending credits in June were about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credits increased from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that from July 1 - 15, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presented contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1, but no specific data analysis was provided [5][6][8]. Contract Basis - The report also presented contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to experience volatile consolidation. The decline in real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment data has affected market sentiment, and short - term steel prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to remain in high - level volatility. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, and the demand for iron ore has also declined, the inventory at ports has decreased, and attention should be paid to the steel demand during the off - season [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend. The resumption of coal mine production and the change in the urbanization stage have affected market expectations, and the short - term prices are likely to fluctuate [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile. Although the cost and steel tender prices have some support, the overall fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward space is limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined slightly, and the spot price also decreased. The investment data of real - estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing from January to June weakened, and the short - term rebar futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the port spot price showed mixed trends. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore declined. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price declined, and the spot price in some areas increased. With the resumption of coal mine production and the change in urbanization stage, the short - term coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase of coke was lower than expected, and the terminal demand increment expectation was disappointed. The short - term coke futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The cost support increased, and the steel tender price was higher than expected. However, the supply - demand pattern was relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened. The steel tender price increased, but the supply - demand was at a low level, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased by 14.0, and the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore decreased by 1.5 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar increased by 14.0, and the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore increased by 0.6 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties changed differently. For example, the spot price of Shanghai rebar decreased by 10.0, and the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of various varieties also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit decreased by 19.3, and the coil - rebar spread increased by 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][14][17]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][32][33][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report includes the inter - variety contract spread charts of the main contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit charts of the rebar main contract, including the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of black industry chain research [52]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures combination [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 0.21% to 66,660 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton to 64,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1 ton to 11,203 tons [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. In terms of imports, lithium salt exports from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month - on - month. In July, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - Market sentiment is affected by news speculation. Warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in market news, which short - term stimulate price increases. However, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is high. Short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 66,860 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 681 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4605 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 57,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 51,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 49,900 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7480 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 221.6 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 75,275 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 75,710 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 71,340 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 89,445 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 106,270 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 115,165 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 110,970 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 142,630 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,330 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 29,905 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 27,650 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 32,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 29,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 220,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.383 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.4 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.31 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.321 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.33 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 5.52 yuan/Ah, up 0.01 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.3 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Research Views Corn - Corn futures on the September contract first rose and then fell on Tuesday, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through support and declined rapidly, with futures significantly at a discount to spot prices. On Monday, this attracted buying, driving up the futures price. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China declined, and in North China, prices continued to fall due to high arrivals at deep - processing plants and enterprises' price - cutting purchases. Traders sold actively to realize profits, and the market supply was relatively abundant. With continuous import corn auctions and poor trading results, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Technically, the September contract should pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the recommendation is to continue shorting after the rebound ends. The view is bearish [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to good growth of US soybeans. The crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week and higher than the market expectation of 67%. NOPA data indicated that the US soybean crush volume in June was 185.709 million bushels, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. US soybean oil inventory dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year decline. In the domestic market, oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but terminal demand was weak, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly. Some factories either suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - supporting strategy. The market is closely watching the development of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The view is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to hold long spreads for the September - January and January - May contracts of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - BMD palm oil fell 2% on Tuesday due to profit - taking and weak export data. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.3% - 6.2% compared with the same period last month, indicating weakening export demand. The decline in crude oil prices also exerted pressure on palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June reached an 11 - month high. In the domestic market, the fats and oils market continued to oscillate, with palm oil and soybean oil slightly rising and rapeseed oil slightly falling. The decline in overseas fats and oils prices led to profit - taking by long positions. The spot demand for soybean oil was strong, and inventory was accumulating. Palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the improvement in rapeseed crushing margins limited the price of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to conduct intraday trading for single - side positions and hold long spreads for the September - January contracts [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract shifted from August to September. The August 2025 contract continued to oscillate, closing down 0.38%, while the September 2025 contract rebounded slightly from a low level, closing up 0.36% at 3615 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices remained flat. Terminal demand was normal, and most traders bought and sold in line with the market. After the plum - rain season, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season, but considering supply pressure, the expected price peak will be lower than last year. With the contract roll - over, the September contract rebounded slightly from a low level, and its subsequent performance should be monitored. The view is oscillating [1][2]. Pigs - On Tuesday, the main pig contract for September 2025 first rebounded in the morning and then declined, closing down 0.25% at 14,250 yuan/ton. The average daily price of live pigs in China was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price increased by 0.04 yuan/kg, while prices in Guangdong remained flat, and those in Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning decreased slightly. Farmers' selling enthusiasm was fair, but downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were operating at a loss. With supply slightly exceeding demand, pig prices continued to decline. In the short term, the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the view is that pig prices will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on futures prices [2]. Market Information - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the conditions of US crops mostly improved in the past week. As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of corn remained at 74%, that of soybeans increased by 4 percentage points to 70%, and that of spring wheat increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. Analysts expect favorable weather conditions for crops to continue [3]. - Shipping survey agencies ITS and Amspec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% and 5.29% respectively compared with the same period last month [3]. - A US Bank survey of global fund managers in July showed that 47% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, about one - third expect one cut, 10% think the rate will remain unchanged, 8% expect three cuts, and only 1% predict more than three cuts [3]. - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China emphasized at a meeting on July 15 the need to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties, strengthen high - standard farmland construction, and prevent disasters [4]. - The IMEA reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, from July 7 - 11 was 443.58 reais/ton, down from 458.28 reais/ton in the previous week. The state's soybean meal price was 1482.06 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5879.53 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][20][24][25].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 718.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 closed at 767.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I01 closed at 738.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - I05 - I09 spread was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 - I01 spread was 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - I01 - I05 spread was 20.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3] 2. Basis Data 2.1 Basis Numerical Data - For different iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (卡粉), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, price change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. from October 2024 to June 2025 [8][9][10] 3. Exchange Rule Adjustments 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands and Premiums - Added 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11] - Adjusted the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest 0 yuan/ton [11] - Added 4 more deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton [11] 3.2 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums - Adjusted the allowable range of iron grade to be greater than or equal to 56%, and set the allowable ranges for silicon dioxide, aluminum oxide, phosphorus, and sulfur [11] - Introduced a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element index (X), with different values of X corresponding to different price ranges of the settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [11] 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Numerical Data - The report provides the spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., along with their changes from the previous day [13] 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts show the spread trends of different iron ore varieties including block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc. [15][17][19] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On July 15, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.81%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 4397000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9111 yuan/ton, an increase of 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 60 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon 2508 closed at 42470 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.78%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 69821 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1030 yuan/ton. Market news indicated that Xinjiang might cancel the subsidized electricity price and large - scale plants' shut - down capacities would not restart, leading to continuous price recovery of industrial silicon due to cost increase. However, there were many disagreements in the market, with limited overall transmission and high difficulty in continuous upward surges. It was advisable to continue short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain in price support increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and market transactions were almost at a standstill. Futures followed the spot price and were more driven by speculative demand. In the short term, there were a lot of true and false news in the market, with increased volatility of the disk and higher risks of chasing up [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased by 220 yuan/ton and 695 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the price increase of different grades ranging from 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium shifted to a discount of 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts both increased by 705 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, and the current lowest deliverable price stayed the same. The spot premium decreased by 705 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 168, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 7360 tons. The total industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 4800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was flat, and the total polysilicon social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presented charts on the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts showed the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts included the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts presented the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][29][35]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th best non - ferrous metal industry futures research teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [37]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [37]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [38].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.15%至 9657.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.18%至 78070 | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，为 2 月以来 | | | 最高纪录，略超过预期 2.6%和前值 2.4%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%符合预期，高于前值 | | | 2.8%。该数据显示受关税影响，美国通胀小幅回升，但仍较温和，不过这也意味着美联 | | | 储可能不会提前降息，7 月和 8 月数据将更受关注。市场继续关注关税方面，继特朗普 | | | 单方面向向各大经济体发关税函后，一些经济体也做出相应的反馈，如欧盟和巴西表 | | | 示将公布对等反制措施，而印尼等国表示接受。国内方面，中国 6 月社融增量 4.2 万亿 | | | 元，新增人民币贷款 2.24 万亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小，中国 6 月按美元计出口同比 | | 铜 | 增长 5.8%，进口增长 1.1%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to be volatile. ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 68.57 cents/pound on Tuesday, while CF509 decreased 0.36% to 13,850 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest dropped by 11,044 lots to 546,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang increased by 4 yuan/ton to 15,286 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B rose by 7 yuan/ton to 15,302 yuan/ton. With the US CPI data in line with expectations and core CPI lower than expected, the market anticipates two interest rate cuts this year, with the next one likely in September. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly, but the night session strengthened. The previous factors supporting the cotton price increase - weather and low inventory - have limited sustainability. With strong expectations of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, the cotton price may fluctuate in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [1]. - The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the second half of June, Brazil's central - southern region had a 12.86% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume to 42.706 million tons, a decrease in ATR, an increase in the sugar - making ratio, and significant year - on - year decreases in ethanol and sugar production. Domestic sugar prices showed mixed trends, with some price adjustments. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the domestic sugar market has a large divergence between bulls and bears, with import pressure on the upside and basis and raw sugar support on the downside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.66%, CF509 fell 0.36%. The main contract's open interest decreased. Xinjiang cotton arrival price and the China Cotton Price Index increased. US CPI data met expectations, and the market anticipates interest rate cuts. Domestically, the futures price declined slightly during the day and strengthened at night. The factors supporting the price increase have limited sustainability, and the new cotton harvest is expected to be good with weak demand [1]. - **Sugar**: In the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, ATR, ethanol, and sugar production decreased year - on - year, while the sugar - making ratio increased. Domestic sugar prices had different trends, with some adjustments. The Brazilian production is uncertain, and the domestic market has a large divergence between bulls and bears [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The main contract basis was 1452 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 173 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 288 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The Nanning spot price was 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Market Information - On July 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 91 to 9716, with 223 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - On July 15, the sugar spot prices in Nanning were unchanged, and those in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 114 to 22,602, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures. She has won multiple honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [21].