农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约减仓下行，端午假期结束后的首个交易日，期价承压下行， 技术上重回弱势表现。与期货下跌相比，玉米现货维持偏强表现。端午假日期间 期货市场缺少盘面的指引，北港主流收购价格维持稳定，产区深加工主流收购价 | 震荡下跌 | | | 格也暂无明显调整。端午节期间，华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。麦收之 | | | | 前部分贸易商仍然继续出货，东北粮源持续流入，华北市场整体供应尚可，部分 | | | | 企业玉米价格上调 6-20 元/吨。端午节假期，销区市场玉米价格基本稳定。假期 | | | | 期间下游企业采购较少，使用前期订单及库存为主，产区价格暂时稳定，部分销 | | | | 区市场港口贸易商报价小幅上调。技术上，7 月合约是主力合约，今日期价表现 | | | | 受制于 20 日均线的压制，一根长阴线收复此前连续一周的上涨。从技术端和心 | | | | 理上恢复了悲观的预期。这样玉米市场中，现货强、期货弱，基差走强的表现还 | | | | 在继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, up 0.24% to $9,638.5/ton; SHFE copper main contract rose 0.5% to 78,180 yuan/ton. The US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased, easing market concerns about the economy and job market. The Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while the domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons to 153,000 tons. With the arrival of the off - season and the end of the phased export rush, downstream and terminal procurement is cautious. The US tariff policy and the 232 investigation may support copper prices. The current copper price is at a directional crossroads, and if it breaks through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it may rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina and Shanghai aluminum both trended stronger. AO2509 closed at 3,036 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and AL2507 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price slightly declined to 3,275 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 110 yuan/ton. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the ore cost provided short - term support. The electrolytic aluminum demand has both off - season pressure and structural resilience. The price is supported by the low - level destocking at the beginning of the month, and the overall operating center may decline slightly with the cost. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,475/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.25% to 121,860 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons. The nickel ore price was stable. In the stainless - steel industry chain, the raw material nickel - iron trading was sluggish, and the cost still provided support. The supply at home and abroad decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased. However, the overall demand was weak. In the new - energy sector, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak. Short - term nickel price may rebound after a rapid decline, but it is still in a volatile state and needs new driving factors to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed from macro, inventory, demand, and policy aspects, pointed out the factors affecting copper prices and the current price trend and resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and suggested paying attention to inventory [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors, and judged the short - term price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, inventory changes in different exchanges, and import and export indicators [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, covering market prices, nickel - ore prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, TC prices, and inventory changes [5]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] - **LME Inventory**: Included charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Contained charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel social inventories from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46] 3.4 Team Introduction - **Exhibition Dapeng**: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [49]. - **Wang Heng**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [50].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 65.98 cents per pound, and CF509 dropped 0.08% to 13,260 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 6,780 to 539,100 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan. Internationally, macro - factors, Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. economic data limit the upside of U.S. cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton lacks continuous upward drive but also has limited negative factors. With weak demand and expected high - yield new cotton, cotton prices face pressure, but the probability of breaking previous lows is very low. It is expected to trade in a slightly weak range in the short term. Monitor macro and weather conditions [2] - **Sugar**: The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation estimates the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons and the production in the 2025/26 season to reach 35 million tons. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar groups decreased. The expectation of increased supply in India suppresses the futures price, which hit a 4 - and - a - half - year low. With the opening of the import sugar profit window due to the fall in raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are under pressure. A bearish view is maintained. Pay attention to May's production - sales data and future import data [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 5; the main - contract basis was 1,293, down 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [3] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 spread was 122, up 7; the main - contract basis was 413, up 16. The Nanning spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan [3] Group 4: Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,062, down 40 from the previous day, with 374 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,445 yuan/ton, Henan 14,568 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,570 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,785 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.1, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.7, up 0.7; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, up 0.2 [4] - **Sugar**: On June 3, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,731, down 289 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of each commodity, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, conducts fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21]

Research Views - After the holiday on June 3, polycrystalline silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 34,360 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.65%, and the open interest decreasing by 5,800 lots to 71,600 lots. The price of SMM polycrystalline silicon N-type silicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 2,140 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,070 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.39%, and the open interest decreasing by 8,304 lots to 200,200 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 575 yuan/ton [2]. - The downward adjustment of electricity prices during the wet season in Southwest China has led to the resumption of production, while large manufacturers in Northwest China will not cut production as they did in previous years, and downstream procurement has shrunk significantly. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out, with the support from the cash cost line of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the pressure from high inventory and increasing supply. A defensive short - selling strategy is maintained. The polycrystalline silicon self - discipline meeting in June will be held again. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas under the pressure of collapsing demand. In the near - term, due to the constraints of warehouse receipts, the one - sided decline is limited and the volatility increases. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new electricity price regulations and the dynamics of warehouse receipts [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 7,170 yuan/ton on May 30 to 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract also decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 7,075 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 150 yuan/ton for 421 silicon in Tianjin Port. The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 7,750 yuan/ton to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 5 yuan to 575 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63,253. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the inventories in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming Port, and industrial silicon factories decreased, with the total social inventory of industrial silicon decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 35,600 yuan/ton on May 30 to 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 1,095 yuan/ton to 36,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polycrystalline silicon material, dense material/single - crystal use, and cauliflower material/single - crystal use remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 900 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton [3]. - The polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, with the total social inventory of polycrystalline silicon decreasing by 0.1 million tons to 26.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged at 1.03/1.58 yuan/piece. The price of single - crystal M10 battery cells remained unchanged at 0.285 yuan/watt, while the price of single - crystal G12 battery cells decreased by 0.28 yuan/watt [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polycrystalline silicon weekly inventory [20][21][23] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polycrystalline silicon cost and profit [26][28][29] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [33][34]

黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2928 元/吨，较上一交 易收盘价格下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅为 1.11%，持仓增加 0.18 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山 地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2860 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，全 国建材成交量 9.45 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.11%至 390.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 0.22% 至 180.37 万吨，建材库存继续下降，热卷库存则有所累积。美国宣布将对进口钢材和铝材加征双倍关税， | 弱势整理 | | | 从现行的 25%翻倍，6 月 4 日起实施。钢材关税政策不断扰动，对市场情绪形成一定影响。而焦煤价格持 | | | | 续下跌，对钢材成本形成一定拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 端午假期后第一个交易日尿素期货价格下挫明显，主力09合约收盘价1761元/吨， | | | | 跌幅0.96%。现货市场多数稳定，河北、安徽等局部地区价格小幅探涨。昨日山东 | | | | 、河南地区市场价格分别稳定在1870元/吨、1850元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水 | | | | 平高位继续提升，昨日行业日产量20.77万吨，日环比增0.27万吨。需求端当前仍较 | | | 尿素 | 为分散，主流农作物产区麦收进行时，对农资采购较为分散。昨日主流地区尿素产 | 震荡 | | | 销率仍有分化，部分地区突破100%及以上，多数地区维持20-70%区间。整体来看 | | | | ，当前尿素市场供需博弈，短期多数地区产销尚能维持平衡。麦收结束后需求及出 | | | | 口仍有放量预期，但价格上方天花板依旧存在。预计尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，日内 | | | | 关注超跌反弹可能，关注需求释放节 、本 库存数据。 | | | | 端午假期后 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 0.33%至 59940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 400 元/ 吨至 60300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 400 元/吨至 58700 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 300 元/吨至 62820 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 300 元/吨至 67965 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库减少 60 吨至 33397 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格延续下跌，据市场消息最低成交价下跌至 600 美元/吨。供应端，周度产量环比 增加 487 吨至 16580 吨，需要注意的是部分企业此前经过检修拟在 6 月复产，6 月预计产量仍环比 有增加。需求端，正极排产数据来看表现一般，但正极库存连续消化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天 数已经明显下降，电芯端延续放缓，但终端销售仍然亮眼，渗透率维持高位。库存端，周度库存环 比下降 208 吨至 131571 吨，下游库存小幅增加，上游和中间环节减少。 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with a downward bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [4] - Polyolefins: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to a reduction in crude oil supply, supporting oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound due to short - term demand support and geopolitical disturbances [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ maintaining the production increase rate eases the pressure on oil prices at the cost end. Short - term prices of FU and LU are expected to stabilize and rise. The spread between LU - FU is expected to be stable, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - term anti - arbitrage market of FU07 may continue, but the profit margin may be limited [2]. - For asphalt, although there is support at the bottom in the short - term due to factors such as low production plans and inventory control, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show a pattern of short - term high - level oscillation and medium - term downward pressure [2]. - For polyester, with the supply recovery of TA and the high operating load of the downstream polyester end, under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - For rubber, the fundamentals are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to decline. The price of butadiene rubber is also weak due to weak demand [4]. - For methanol, although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity [4]. - For polyolefins, the marginal change in demand is not significant, and the market is in the off - season. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the fundamentals are loose in June, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The main contract V2509 has the expectation of a peak season, but the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals. The price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and the basis and inter - month spread will gradually strengthen [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The WTI July contract closed up $0.89 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.42% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a 1.55% increase; the SC2507 closed at 469.0 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% increase. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. EIA data showed that before the driving season, the average retail gasoline price in the US before the Memorial Day weekend was 14% lower than last year, and the gasoline consumption during the Memorial Day weekend increased by 2% compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.85% at 2,913 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2507 closed up 1.47% at 3,509 yuan per ton. The inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes from Northwest Europe to the Singapore market is expected to increase in June, but the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily tight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Russia is expected to continue to rise, but Iran's exports remain low, and the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa is expected to increase significantly [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.22% at 3,482 yuan per ton. In June, the rainy weather in the south restricts the release of terminal demand, but the planned production level of refineries is not high. With the slow release of demand in the north and the low supply in North China, the supply in Shandong is expected to decrease, which provides bottom support for the asphalt price in the short - term. However, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show high - level oscillation in the short - term and downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,628 yuan per ton yesterday, down 1.53%; EG2509 closed at 4,306 yuan per ton, down 0.99%. An East China 3 million - ton PTA plant restarted yesterday, and a 340,000 - ton/year MEG plant in East China has restarted. A large domestic polyester bottle - chip manufacturer has recently reduced production, involving nearly 700,000 tons of production capacity, and there are plans for further production reduction. The PX fundamentals are expected to be positive, supporting the PX price and PXN profit repair. Under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed up 45 yuan per ton to 13,450 yuan per ton; the main NR contract closed down 55 yuan per ton to 11,810 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 270 yuan per ton to 10,875 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of rubber are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. The price may continue to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply of butadiene rubber changes little in June, but the downstream and terminal automobile demand weakens significantly, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,275 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1,862.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $254 - 258 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $318 - 323 per ton. Although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was between 6,990 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The demand side changes little, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Refineries need to reduce prices to destock. In the off - season of demand, the market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market was weakly adjusted. The market is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in June, with the basis and inter - month spread gradually strengthening [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on June 4, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. - Kazakhstan reaffirmed its willingness to cooperate closely with OPEC and countries participating in coordinated production cuts to ensure the stability of the oil market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production, PP production, and LLDPE production [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures are rated as "volatile" [1] - Treasury bond futures are rated as "volatile" [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed a general upward trend on June 3, 2025, with the Wind All A index rising 0.52% and a trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan. The consumer and banking sectors were strong, while the real estate upstream and downstream sectors were weak. The economic data in April showed a certain decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the M2 growth rate at 8% year-on-year. The joint statement between China and the United States laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policies, and the financial regulatory authorities will promote the entry of long - term funds into the market. These measures are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations [1] - On June 3, 2025, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively. After the cross - month period, the capital market became looser, and the DR007 decreased by 12BP to 1.55%. In June, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - following market and will show a sideways volatile pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, IH rose from 2,667.2 to 2,668.6 (0.05%), IF from 3,822.4 to 3,824.8 (0.06%), IC from 5,627.8 to 5,638.4 (0.19%), and IM from 5,966.0 to 5,998.0 (0.54%) [4] - **Stock indexes**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose from 2,678.7 to 2,687.3 (0.32%), the CSI 300 from 3,840.2 to 3,852.0 (0.31%), the CSI 500 from 5,671.1 to 5,694.8 (0.42%), and the CSI 1000 from 6,026.6 to 6,070.0 (0.72%) [4] - **Treasury bond futures**: On June 3, 2025, compared with May 30, 2025, TS fell from 102.40 to 102.35 (-0.04%), TF from 106.02 to 105.96 (-0.06%), T from 108.73 to 108.69 (-0.04%), and TL rose from 119.41 to 119.45 (0.03%) [4] 3.2 Market News - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down from the previous value of 50.4 [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: The report provides the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends from January 2024 to January 2025 [7][8][11] - **Treasury bond futures**: The report provides the trend charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18] - **Exchange rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][26]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-04 一、指数走势 06 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.43%，收于 3361.98 点，成交额 4682.93 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.16%，收于 10057.17 点，成交额 6731.17 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.72%，成交额 2342.97 亿元，其中开盘价 6009.18，收盘价 6070.04，当日最高价 6086.62，最低价 6008.54； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.42%，成交额 1599.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5653.67，收盘价 5694.84，当日最高价 5710.42，最低价 5653.3； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.31%，成交额 2267.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3833.46，收盘价 3852.01，当日最高价 3863.3，最低价 3832.72； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.32%，成交额 590.77 亿元，其中开盘价 2674.77，收盘价 2687.3，当日最高价 2697.39，最低价 2671.34。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...