Report Title - 2025 Q4 Lithium Carbonate Strategy Report [1] Report Date - September 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of this year, the lithium carbonate futures price bottomed out and stabilized. After reaching a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in late June, the price strengthened due to supply-side disturbances. The supply of lithium carbonate increased by over 40% year-on-year, while downstream demand showed rapid growth, especially in the output of lithium iron phosphate. The total inventory turnover days have decreased, but downstream inventory has increased significantly. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday restocking momentum will gradually weaken. The issue of lithium mine mining license changes in Jiangxi after the holiday remains uncertain, which affects market sentiment. The price center hovers around 73,000 yuan/ton, with increased volatility. If the projects in Jiangxi resume production without issues, the bullish logic will be further weakened, and the price trend will depend more on demand. If production cannot resume as scheduled or other projects shut down, the price center will continue to rise. Considering that 2026 is expected to be the last major year of supply capacity expansion in this cycle, the supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year. A new cycle will require further demand growth [7]. - The price range is expected to be between 60,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory 1 Price, Spread, and Positioning - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 2 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import-Export Profit - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 3 Inventory - As of the end of September, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was about 137,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the peak of 143,000 tons in July. The total inventory turnover days decreased to 39 days [6][30] 4 Supply 4.1 Global Lithium Resource Supply and Cost - In 2025, the global lithium resource supply (including recycling) is expected to be 1.651 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.022 million tons. The 80th percentile of the含税 cash cost of lithium resources is about 60,000 yuan/ton, and the 90th percentile is 65,000 yuan/ton [10][36] 4.2 Lithium Ore Production, Import, and Chilean Shipment - From January to August 2025, the domestic lithium ore production increased by 44% month-on-month to 145,000 tons, with a significant increase in spodumene and lepidolite. The cumulative import of lithium concentrate in China from January to August 2025 was 3.85 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. Imports from Canada increased significantly, those from Australia increased slightly, and those from Zimbabwe decreased significantly. From January to August 2025, Chile's shipment of lithium sulfate to China increased by 127% year-on-year to 60,000 tons [10][45][48] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium carbonate production increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 683,100 tons, with a significant increase in lithium extraction from spodumene. From January to August, the cumulative import increased by 4% year-on-year to 150,000 tons [10][58] 4.4 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hydroxide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 214,000 tons [10][70] 4.5 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by 40% year-on-year to 176,000 tons [10][73] 4.6 Waste Recycling - From January to August 2025, waste recycling increased by 8% year-on-year to 180,000 tons [10][76] 5 Demand 5.1 Total Demand - From January to September 2025, the two major cathode materials consumed a total of 697,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 51%. All demand consumed 826,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 44% [10][83] 5.2 Specific Materials - From January to September 2025, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year-on-year at 620,000 tons. The production of ternary materials increased by 11% year-on-year to 567,000 tons. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 66% year-on-year to 2.513 million tons. The production of cobalt acid lithium increased by 30% year-on-year to 86,000 tons, and the production of manganese acid lithium increased by 25% year-on-year to 105,000 tons [10][88][91][94][97] 5.3 Battery Production - From January to August 2025, the battery cell production increased by 50% year-on-year to 1,050 GWh, with power battery cells increasing by 47% and accounting for about 71%, and lithium iron phosphate power battery cells accounting for 70%. Energy storage battery cells increased by 59%. The lithium battery production increased by 48% year-on-year to 1,105 GWh, with lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 65%. The lithium battery installation increased by 43% year-on-year to 418 GWh, with LFP increasing by 65% to 340.5 GWh and NCM decreasing by 10% to 77.3 GWh [10][12][101][103][105] 5.4 Terminal Demand - **China's New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 7.556 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a retail penetration rate of 51% and an export volume of 2.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 58% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, new energy vehicles will enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax [10][12][109] - **US New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, US automobile sales remained at 10.55 million year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 5% to 1.03 million, with a penetration rate increase of 0.4 pcts to 9.8%. The US House of Representatives passed a tax and expenditure reform bill, and the federal tax credit for new electric vehicles ($7,500) and used electric vehicles ($4,000) will end on September 30 [10][12][111] - **European New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, European automobile sales increased by 0.4 to 8.69 million, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% to 2.32 million, with a penetration rate increase of 4 pcts to 27% [10][12][117] - **Energy Storage**: From January to August 2025, the shipment of energy storage battery cells in China increased by 71% year-on-year to 307.45 GWh, and the global energy storage market is booming [10][12][119] 6 Supply-Demand Balance - Supply disturbances have raised the bottom price, and the next cycle will be driven by demand. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year [7][12][132]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization and recovery of fixed - asset investment growth require the central government to increase fiscal leverage, as real - estate storage and infrastructure funds face challenges [2][8]. - China is undergoing an economic re - balance from investment to consumption. The government's assessment method may shift from GDP to increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP. Future policies may reform the social security system to release consumption potential [2][25]. - A moderate recovery of inflation is a prerequisite for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery will drive corporate profit improvement, increase residents' income, and then achieve consumption recovery. Future inflation is expected to stabilize and rebound [2][52]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Investment: Central Fiscal Leverage Expected to Increase - **Real - estate**: The downward inertia is large, policy support is gradually increasing, but demand - side stimulus policies have under - performed expectations. The progress of real - estate storage is accelerating, and central fiscal funds are crucial for breaking the "impossible triangle" among storage parties, sellers, and commercial banks [9][10][11]. - **Infrastructure**: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is declining. As of September 14, the proportion of new special bonds invested in land reserves is 14.3%. If the scale of land - reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the funds for traditional infrastructure may be less than in 2024. The infrastructure investment structure will continue to be divided, with central - government - led projects stronger and local - government - led projects weaker. The estimated overall infrastructure growth rate in 2025 is about 2.6% [14][18][20]. - **Manufacturing**: "Anti - involution" in emerging industries mainly restricts capital expenditure and capacity expansion, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth [22]. 3.2 Consumption: Structural Reform of Economic Re - balance - **Policy Support**: A series of consumption - related policies have been introduced, including measures to expand service consumption, financial support for consumption, and special action plans to boost consumption. These policies address both the supply and demand sides of consumption [25]. - **Problems in Consumption**: China's consumption rate is relatively low, mainly due to low household consumption rates. Factors include income polarization, large urban - rural income gaps, an imperfect social security system, and a low proportion of service consumption [28][33][37]. - **Solutions**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses key consumption issues from multiple aspects such as income increase, consumption capacity support, service supply improvement, and policy support. Future consumption policies may focus more on service consumption [41][42][50]. 3.3 Inflation: An Important Tool to Stabilize Expectations and Promote Consumption - **Relationship with Consumption**: A moderate recovery of inflation is necessary for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery drives corporate profit improvement, increases residents' income, and promotes consumption recovery [52]. - **CPI Differentiation**: There are two significant differentiations in CPI. The core CPI and CPI are diverging, and service consumption and commodity consumption within the core CPI are also diverging. Future consumption policies may shift towards service consumption [55]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Considering the central bank's stance and the expected increase in "anti - involution" policies, future inflation will stabilize and rebound. Although inflation is in a state of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the second half of the year, the data recovery may occur in the first half of next year [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is facing a situation where raw material production is imminent, leading to a pattern of loose supply and demand. In Q4 2025, prices of PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as cost - end crude oil price fluctuations, new device productions, and changes in supply - demand relationships [2][135][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Cost - end Crude Oil Price is Under Pressure - From June 30 to September 23, 2025, prices of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different trends. For example, the price of Brent crude oil increased slightly by $0.2 per barrel, while the price of PTA decreased by 579 yuan/ton [4]. - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also declined from June 30 to September 24, 2025, with PTA down 3.6%, MEG down 0.8%, and PX down 2.9% [7]. 2. PX: Newly Added Device Capacity is Limited - In 2025, the average operating load of Asian PX was 74.29% from January to September, a year - on - year decrease of 1.07 percentage points, while that of China was 82.37%, a year - on - year increase of 0.16 percentage points. The new PX device of Yulong Petrochemical has a capacity of 300 tons/year but only produces MX currently [14]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of PX was 615.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. However, the import volume is expected to shrink in Q4 due to more TA maintenance and weakened market demand [21]. 3. PTA: New Devices are Put into Production, and Supply - demand is Loose - From January to September 2025, the average operating load of domestic PTA was 77.54%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.84 percentage points, and the average processing fee was 241 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton. In Q3, Sanfangxiang's 320 - million - ton new capacity was put into production, and in Q4, Dushan Energy's 300 - million - ton capacity is planned to be put into production [24]. - From January to August 2025, PTA production was 48.45 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 2.5302 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.86%. Overall, PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q4 [27][33][34]. 4. MEG: Coal - based Profit is Good, Device Restart is Active, and Inventory Accumulation Expectation is Strengthened - From January to August 2025, the domestic production of ethylene glycol was 13.398 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 69.71%, a year - on - year increase of 5.24 percentage points, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a year - on - year increase of 7.32 percentage points [42][43]. - In 2025, the planned production capacity of MEG devices is 1.6 billion tons, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.0284 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. There is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 [45][48][49]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Demand is Advanced, and Q4 Demand is Weak - In 2025, many domestic polyester devices are being put into production, and the planned production capacity in Q4 is mainly for filament. However, the current terminal performance is lower than expected, showing a situation of "Golden September and Silver October" not being prosperous [56][57]. - From January to August 2025, the total export volume of Chinese polyester products was 96.196 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. However, India has launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese polyesters, which may affect future exports [65]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - On September 25, 2025, compared with June 30, 2025, the total position volume of PTA decreased by 260,054 hands, that of MEG decreased by 5,251 hands, and that of PX increased by 46,758 hands [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side is under pressure, while the fundamentals of polyester staple fiber are fair. Upstream TA and EG are expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, putting pressure on prices. PX has a loose fundamental situation, and with crude oil under pressure, PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. PTA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and if the planned TA maintenance in the fourth quarter is implemented as scheduled, it will bring some improvement to the fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a loose fundamental pattern and expected inventory accumulation in the future, so its price is expected to be under pressure. [73] - On the supply side, the operating load of polyester staple fiber is at a historical high. From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. In terms of device changes, a 200,000 - ton staple fiber device of the former Jingwei resumed production in April, and a 100,000 - ton (including 20,000 - ton staple fiber) device of Xinhongxiang (formerly Xinghong) resumed production in May. It is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [73] - On the demand side, there is a pattern of a non - prosperous peak season. As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [73] - Overall, compared with other polyester products, the fundamentals of staple fiber are relatively better. The supply operating rate is at a high level, the finished - product inventory is being depleted, and downstream has the ability to digest staple fiber. The performance in October may be similar to that in September. With upstream prices under pressure, it will benefit the profit repair of downstream staple fiber. If the demand for staple fiber exceeds expectations, the price elasticity of staple fiber will be relatively large. [73] Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Prices - From June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF main contract closing price decreased from 6,542 yuan/ton to 6,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 246 yuan/ton or 3.8%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6,805 yuan/ton to 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton or 5.1%. The basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99 yuan/ton or 37.6%. [4] - Regarding the price difference of polyester staple fiber, from June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 price difference changed from 22 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 409.1%. The PF05 - PF09 price difference changed from - 82 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or - 24.4%. The PF09 - PF01 price difference changed from 60 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 116.7%. [9] - For raw material prices, from June 30 to September 25, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased from 4,798 yuan/ton to 4,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The MEG closing price decreased from 4,267 yuan/ton to 4,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.5%. The PX closing price decreased from 6,796 yuan/ton to 6,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton or 1.8%. [12] 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost Side: Pay Attention to the New Device Commissioning - For PTA, from January to September 2025, the average operating load of domestic PTA was 77.54%, a 1.84 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year. The average processing fee was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. In the third quarter, Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton new production capacity was put into operation, and two 1.2 - million - ton old production lines were shut down. In the fourth quarter, Dushan Energy's No. 4 3 - million - ton production capacity is planned to be put into operation. From January to August 2025, the PTA production was 48.45 million tons, an increase of 1.61 million tons or 3.4% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.5302 million tons, a decrease of 0.5133 million tons or 16.86% compared to the same period last year. [15][19] - For ethylene glycol, from January to August 2025, the average operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 69.71%, a 5.24 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. The average operating load of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a 7.32 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol production was 13.398 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons or 7.8% compared to the same period last year. The production of the syngas oxalic acid hydrogenation catalytic process was 4.919 million tons, an increase of 0.5795 million tons or 13.4% compared to the same period last year. The production increase of non - syngas - based devices was 0.3905 million tons, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative ethylene glycol import volume was 5.0284 million tons, a 16% increase compared to the same period last year. As of September 22, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 467,000 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons compared to June 30. [22][25] 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply Side: Sustained High - Level Operation - From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. Some devices resumed production this year, and it is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. [73] - As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [34][73] 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand Side: Slow Order Recovery - As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. [38][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. [43][73] - As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [46][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) in China was 1.0964 million tons, an increase of 0.2499 million tons or 29.52% compared to the same period last year. [49] 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Expected Contraction of Terminal Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export value of textile and clothing was 197.27 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Among them, the export value of textiles was 94.51 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.6%, and the export value of clothing was 102.76 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.7%. [53] - From January to August 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods of above - quota units in the city were 8.967 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 6.874 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3%. From January to August, the online retail sales of physical goods were 8.0964 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to July and 1.8 percentage points faster than the same - period total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to August, among the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use goods increased by 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively. From January to August 2025, the clothing retail sales reached 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 1.7 percentage points weaker than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. [59] 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - As of September 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 30,803 lots, 244 lots, and 3 lots respectively. Compared with June 30, 2025, the positions of PF2601 and PF2605 increased by 29,031 lots and 230 lots respectively, while the position of PF2509 decreased by 70,497 lots. [65] - There are also relevant analyses of the historical volatility and option volume and position put - call ratios of polyester staple fiber options. [66][72]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].

Report Information - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" [1] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given report content Detailed Summaries Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - I05 closed at 785.5 yuan/ton today, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan; I01 closed at 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan [3] - The I05 - I09 spread was 20.5 yuan/ton today, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day; the I09 - I01 spread was -40.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 20.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [3] Basis Data - Various iron ore varieties showed different price changes and basis values. For example, the price of Carajás fines (卡粉) was 933 yuan/ton today, up 3.0 yuan, with a basis of 90 yuan, up 1 yuan from the previous day [5] Contract Rule Changes - Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukraine concentrate) were added, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10] - Brand premiums for existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while others are 0 [10] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [10] Variety Spreads - Different variety spreads showed various changes. For example, the PB lump - PB fines spread was 134.0 yuan/ton today, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day; the PB fines - Super Special fines spread was 68.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan [12] Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24]

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and failed to continue the upward trend. The domestic spot copper imports were in a loss state. The US economic data showed resilience and inflation persistence. The labor - market slowdown concerns were alleviated. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,564 tons to 291,260 tons, and the domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.01 million tons. The Freeport McMoRan Indonesia Grasberg mine accident will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. Although investors were cautious due to the cryptocurrency fluctuations and domestic holiday uncertainties, the supply reduction in Q4 will strongly support copper prices, and the quarterly average price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to Comex - LME copper and internal - external price spreads [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated weakly with AO2601 closing at 2919 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decline.沪铝 (AL2510) fluctuated strongly, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot remained at par. The domestic bauxite mines have not resumed production, and the ore inventory is declining. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not reached the actual de - stocking inflection point. With the approaching of the double festivals, the downstream is in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years, and the downstream purchasing willingness has declined, which restricts the upward momentum of aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to $15,240/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.86% to 121,680 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory remained at 230,586 tons, and the domestic SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons to 25,105 tons. The stainless - steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the national mainstream market stainless - steel 89 - warehouse social inventory at 984,500 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. The cost of ferronickel has strengthened, but the supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, the ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but the cobalt policy may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The nickel price may rise slightly at the bottom, but inventory is a resistance to the price increase [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 82,465 yuan/ton, up 2,460 yuan from the previous day. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, the上期所 (SHFE) copper warrants increased by 243 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons. The domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Aluminum - On September 25, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai price was 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, the SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 3,328 tons, and the total SHFE inventory decreased by 765 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 63.8 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - On September 25, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan from the previous day. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2,334 tons. The nickel social inventory increased by 429 tons [4]. Zinc - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of zinc was 21,965 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. The LME zinc price remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.92 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of tin was 273,150 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10]. 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - There are charts showing the spread between the first - and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. 3.3 LME Inventory - There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.4 SHFE Inventory - There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. 3.5 Social Inventory - There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.6 Smelting Profit - There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, etc., with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on aluminum - silicon research. Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - **Spreads**: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a state of narrow - range consolidation or oscillation in the short term due to various factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price had a narrow - range fluctuation. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply - demand data improved, but there was still some pressure. The price was expected to be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price rose. The supply decreased slightly, while the demand increased. With the inventory increase, the price was expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price rose. There were minor production restrictions in some coal mines, and the downstream procurement was still active. The price was expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price rose. The main coking enterprises initiated a price increase, but the consumption was lower than expected. The price was expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The futures price strengthened with oscillation. The market sentiment was boosted, but the fundamental driving force was limited. The price was expected to follow the overall trend of the black sector [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price strengthened with oscillation. The market sentiment was positive, but the fundamental driving force was limited. The price was expected to follow the overall trend of the black sector [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The 1 - 5 - month and 5 - 10 - month spreads of various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. showed different changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts of various commodities also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different regions of various commodities had certain fluctuations or remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different commodities had different changes, such as rebar's profit and spreads between different commodities [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The charts showed the historical trends of the main contract prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The charts presented the historical trends of the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. for different years and months [17][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The charts showed the historical trends of the spreads between different contracts of various commodities, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][29][30][31][32][34][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spread**: The charts presented the historical trends of the spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: The charts showed the historical trends of the rebar's main contract's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodity research [53][54].