股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-07 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨 152.8 点，电子,计算机等板块对指数向上拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨 108.51 点，计算机,电子等板块对指数向上拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨 37.97 点，电子,非银金融,计算机等板块对指数向上拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨 14.56 点，非银金融,电子,机械设备等板块对指数向上拉动明显。 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -10 0 10 20 30 40 电子 计算机 电力设备 机械设备 有色金属 通信 传媒 基础化工 汽车 医药生物 国防军工 非银金融 公用事业 交通运输 建筑装饰 房地产 商贸零售 家用电器 食品饮料 农林牧渔 纺织服饰 建筑材料 轻工制造 钢铁 环保 煤炭 美容护理 石油石化 社会服务 综合 银行 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -5 0 5 10 15 20 计算机 电子 电力设备 有色金属 非银金融 机械设备 国防军工 医药生物 基础化工 汽车 传媒 通信 家用电器 钢铁 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [2] Group 2: Core Views - A-share market rose significantly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.83% and turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. Although the decline in A-share market revenue growth has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, it is still below the policy rate. The net profit in Q1 increased by about 4% year-on-year, but ROE is still at the bottoming stage. The index has limited short-term upward momentum. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal measures to boost domestic demand remain the main focus. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%, indicating an active fiscal policy. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. Overseas, the essence of the US tariff policy is to relieve the pressure of insufficient capital account surplus by reducing the current account deficit, which is difficult to solve in the short term. The tariff policy is a means rather than an end, and its real purpose is to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations. During the negotiation process between other economies and the US, the US tariff policy on China may become a bargaining chip, and China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea may be marginally affected on the demand side. This policy also has a long-term impact on the A-share market, and China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes can focus on sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high capital expenditure [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract up 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.04%, the 2 - year main contract down 0.06%, and the 10 - year main contract basically stable. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 1.087 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively balanced, with the DR001 rate down 7bp to 1.71% and the DR007 rate down 7bp to 1.73%. The current bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors. Monetary policy mainly relies on structural policy tools, and the need for short - term interest rate cuts is low. The bond market has priced in the weakening of the fundamentals and interest rate cut expectations in advance, and there is insufficient downward momentum for treasury bond yields. In the short term, it is expected to move sideways [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes in the Second Quarter - For stock index futures, the IH rose from 2,609.2 to 2,629.6, an increase of 0.78%; the IF rose from 3,716.2 to 3,766.2, an increase of 1.35%; the IC rose from 5,497.0 to 5,622.0, an increase of 2.27%; the IM rose from 5,801.4 to 5,953.2, an increase of 2.62% [3] - For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose from 2,633.2 to 2,647.7, an increase of 0.55%; the SSE 300 rose from 3,770.6 to 3,808.5, an increase of 1.01%; the CSI 500 rose from 5,631.8 to 5,740.3, an increase of 1.93%; the CSI 1000 rose from 5,950.1 to 6,102.9, an increase of 2.57% [3] - For treasury bond futures, the TS fell from 102.37 to 102.31, a decrease of 0.06%; the TF fell from 106.10 to 106.06, a decrease of 0.04%; the T rose from 109.00 to 109.05, an increase of 0.04%; the TL rose from 120.76 to 120.97, an increase of 0.17% [3] 2. Market News - On May 6, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated at a regular press conference that the tariff war was initiated by the US, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: ready to fight to the end if the US wants to fight, and the door for negotiation is always open. Lin Jian emphasized that the US has recently expressed its hope to negotiate with China, and there are no winners in tariff and trade wars. If the US really wants to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and pressuring and conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their corresponding basis [6][7][8][9][10] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - delivery spreads for different - term treasury bond futures, the historical trends of cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [20][21][22][24][25] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, research on key industry sectors, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile. Although short - term geopolitical disturbances and potential declines in US crude oil production have led to a short - term upward repair in market sentiment, the over - production of Kazakhstan and Iraq, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may put pressure on prices [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand. However, the low raw material procurement demand and the arrival of Middle - East supplies will also have an impact [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects with the warming weather will support demand, but attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the increase in supply [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in the prices of PX, PTA, and EG, the weak sales of polyester yarns, and the maintenance of some devices all indicate a weak market [2][4]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although Thailand's proposal to reduce import tariffs and the postponement of the rubber tapping season may support the market, the high raw material prices may lead to high tapping enthusiasm, and the weak terminal demand will still put pressure on prices [4][5]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand will remain relatively stable in May, leading to a loosening of spot price support [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Although the supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, the demand will enter the off - season, and the inventory decline will slow down [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the approaching implementation of the Indian BIS certification may lead to a decline in exports [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI June contract closed at $59.09/barrel, up $1.96 or 3.43%; Brent July contract closed at $62.15/barrel, up $1.92 or 3.19%; SC2506 closed at 465.9 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan or 1.77%. Kazakhstan and Iraq have over - produced. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output in 2025 will be 13.42 million barrels, about 100,000 barrels less than last month's forecast [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2507 closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; LU2506 closed at 3,405 yuan/ton, up 1.73%. The reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2506 closed at 3,424 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. With the repair of processing profits, supply is expected to increase. The expected acceleration of special bond issuance and the start of terminal projects will support demand [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,362 yuan/ton, down 1.62%; EG2509 closed at 4,130 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The sales of polyester yarns in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are weak, and some devices are under maintenance [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2509 closed at 14,815 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; NR closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Thailand proposes to reduce import tariffs, and the rubber tapping season is postponed, but the terminal demand is weak [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,420 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will remain relatively stable in May [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decline due to refinery maintenance, but the demand will enter the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the price in the East - China PVC market decreased. The real - estate construction off - season will reduce the demand for PVC downstream products, and the inventory pressure will increase [6][7]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on May 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with April 30, 2025 [8]. Market News - The US API data shows that in the week of May 2, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.49 million barrels, and the analysts expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [13]. - On May 6, the EU announced a plan to terminate the import of Russian energy by 2027 [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][46] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [61][62][65] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the field of energy and chemical research [73][74][75]

Research View - The research view on various agricultural products is mostly "sideways." Corn is in a sideways state, with long positions shifting to the July and September contracts. The spot market continues to show a strong performance driven by the futures. Northeast corn prices are rising, with a general increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and traders' enthusiasm for shipping is average. In North China, corn prices are also running strongly. Technically, the July contract has broken through the previous high [1]. - Soybean meal is also in a sideways state. CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to trade - related tensions and farmers' eagerness to plant soybeans. In the domestic market, the futures have raised the margin, and the market is mainly sideways. The spot supply of soybean meal is still tight, but it is expected to improve in May [1]. - Fats and oils are in a sideways state. BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and the weakness of competing vegetable oils. Domestically, palm oil led the decline with reduced positions, and the oils market was weakly sideways. The increase in domestic ship purchases has pressured the spot and futures prices [1]. - Eggs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, egg futures fluctuated. The spot price has been weak recently, but the May Day holiday has a certain boosting effect on terminal demand. After the plum - rain season, the egg price is likely to decline [1]. - Pigs are in a sideways state. On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs fluctuated downward. Although the May Day holiday has increased the slaughtering enterprises' stocking demand, the impact on the pig price is limited. The market generally believes that the second - fattened pigs will be slaughtered more actively around May [2]. Market Information - The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations and 120,000 tons of corn to Spain, all for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year [3]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement a hog production capacity regulation plan, aiming to reduce the proportion of grain in the feed consumed by the national aquaculture industry to about 60% and the proportion of soybean meal to about 10% by 2030 [3]. - As of the end of the 17th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 97,000 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 37.00%. The coastal inventory was 84,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 31.90% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][7][9][13]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of various agricultural products, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][19][21][25]. Research Team Members - The agricultural product research team members include Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, an analyst of beans at Everbright Futures; and Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29]

光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 764.0 | 763.0 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | 55.0 | 52.5 | 2.5 | | I09 | 709.0 | 710.5 | -1.5 | I09-I01 | 24.5 | 26.5 | -2.0 | | I01 | 684.5 | 684.0 | 0.5 | I01-I05 | -79.5 | -79.0 | -0.5 | 光期研究 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 0 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格震荡走弱，主力09合约收盘价1735元/吨，跌幅2.09%。现货市 | | | | 场 中偏强 行，山东、 河地区价格小幅反弹，其余地区价格多数维稳。目 | | | | 山东、河南市场价格分别为1800元/吨、1820元/吨，日环比分 上涨10元/吨 | | | | 、20元/吨。基本面来看， 期尿素日产 持在20万吨以上 平波动， 日20.51 | | | 尿素 | 万吨。 求端继续跟进， 业 单成交明 增加，多数地区产销继续维持100% | 震荡 | | | 以上，但河南、山东价格小幅上涨后市场跟进有所放缓。整体来看，节前企业 | | | | 收单情况良好或继续支撑市场情绪， 一 期期 尿素现货市场或坚挺运行。 | | | | 期货盘面 期 增驱动有 ， 出口消息扰动增强， 期 最后一个交易日资 | | | | 金及持仓变化值得关注。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格偏强震荡，主力09合约收盘价1376元/吨，微幅 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.44%至 9446.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.19%至 77740 元/吨；国 | | | 内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人，大幅低于预期 | | | 750 万人和前值 756.8 万人；美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数降至 86，创 2020 年 5 月份 | | | 以来新低。美国总统特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽车关税政策带来的冲击。这也表明 | | | 虽然美政府态度仍会反复，但在发债压力下总体相比 4 月份将缓和。库存方面来看， | | | LME 库存下降 300 吨至 20.25 万吨；Comex 库存增加 2372.31 吨至 12.49 万吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 2842 吨至 34042 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 100 吨至 9863 吨。需求方面，总体来 | | | 看订单较为平稳。外围宏观情绪缓和，国内旺季成色较足，快速去库下看空情绪偏弱， | ...

Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On April 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3286.65 points with a change of -0.05% and a trading volume of 430.881 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9849.8 points with a change of -0.05% and a trading volume of 591.202 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 5903.38 points with a change of 0.45% and a trading volume of 219.412 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5604.91 points with a change of 0.12% and a trading volume of 158.033 billion yuan [1]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2645.51 points with a change of -0.22% and a trading volume of 53.894 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3775.08 points with a change of -0.17% and a trading volume of 197.463 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index rose 26.32 points. Sectors such as machinery, computer, and electronics had a significant positive impact, while the public utilities sector had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 6.61 points. Sectors like computer, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage had a positive impact, while national defense, power equipment, and public utilities sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 300 Index fell 6.54 points. Sectors including electronics, machinery, and household appliances had a positive impact, while food and beverage, public utilities, and power equipment sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 5.72 points. Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceutical, and machinery had a positive impact, while non - banking finance, power equipment, and banking sectors had a negative impact [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was -39.94, IM01 was -136.95, IM02 was -297.78, and IM03 was -425.98 [13]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was -33.17, IC01 was -119.32, IC02 was -246.92, and IC03 was -340.05 [13]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was -15.5, IF01 was -48.3, IF02 was -104.23, and IF03 was -131.19 [13]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was -4.81, IH01 was -21.88, IH02 was -54.45, and IH03 was -59.08 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the annualized costs and 15 - minute average point differences for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts during roll - over periods [22][24][25][27].

Research Ratings for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market declined yesterday. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume decreased. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar has improved, the impact of tariff policies on steel exports will gradually emerge, and the decline in cold - rolled demand may spread to hot - rolled products. There are also rumors about crude steel production cuts, which affect market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract declined yesterday. Supply has increased significantly, while demand, represented by hot metal production, has also risen. With the increase in port and steel mill inventories, and under the influence of long - and short - term factors, the iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to information related to crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market declined yesterday. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation for the May Day holiday has been completed. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and spot purchases are scarce. Although the operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises has slightly increased, their coking coal inventory is sufficient. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more support policies may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market declined yesterday. The production of coking enterprises in the main production areas is normal, and the supply is relatively loose. The steel billet price has dropped, which has put pressure on raw material prices. Although steel mills have a good demand for coke, their profit margins are limited, so they are cautious about coke prices. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and more policy support may be implemented in the second quarter [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore has remained stable recently. It is expected that the silicon manganese futures price will be weak and fluctuate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened in a fluctuating manner on Tuesday. The production profit is still in the red, and the production decline has narrowed. The downstream steel procurement price is falling, and the demand support is limited. The cost is relatively stable. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 15,300 lots in positions. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The current supply - demand situation has improved, but there are potential negative factors such as tariff policies and production cut rumors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 was 709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 3,000 lots in positions. The supply has increased, and the demand has also risen. The inventory at ports and steel mills has increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 932 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 4,849 lots in positions. The domestic supply is stable, and downstream inventory preparation is completed. Traders are on the sidelines [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. The production of coking enterprises is normal, and the supply is loose. Steel mills are cautious about prices [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The main silicon manganese futures contract was reported at 5758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day, with an increase of 15,565 lots in positions to 405,400 lots. The supply is still relatively high year - on - year, and the terminal demand is weak [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main silicon iron futures contract was reported at 5608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day, with a decrease of 15,383 lots in positions. The production profit is negative, and the demand support is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 28.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was 49.0, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 120.0, an increase of 9.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 99.2, a decrease of 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 762.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar futures profit was 110.7, a decrease of 22.0 from the previous day; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 110.0, an increase of 2.0 from the previous day [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Price**: The report provides historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][9][10][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [24][25][29][31][32][34][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It includes the historical spread charts of the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, and silicon manganese and silicon iron [38][39][41][43]. - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: It provides the historical profit charts of rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Currently serves as the assistant director of the Research Institute of Everbright Futures and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Currently serves as the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many industry awards [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Currently a black researcher at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [51].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 1.47%，报收 66.56 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 1%，报收 12840 元/ | | | | 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 2557 手至 57.3 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13982 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 16 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14244 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日增加 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期驱动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数重心上 | 震荡偏 | | | 移，美棉价格震荡走弱，基本面变化有限，持续关注宏观数据。国内市场方面，近 | | | | 期郑棉期价重心小幅下移，基本面支撑稍显不足，但我们认为短期下方空间有限。 | 弱 | | | 一是中美关税税率较此前再度恶化空间不大，二是新棉种植期，国内棉花种植面积 | | | | 较此前预估或小幅下降，未来天气若有扰动则是利多，三是对未来国内宏观政策的 | | | | 预期。综上，我们认为短期郑棉底部有 ...