Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.4 cents/pound, CF601 fell 0.82% to 13350 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 4260 to 530,600 hands. The pressure of new cotton's concentrated and large - scale listing and limited short - term downstream digestion ability are the main factors, but there are also some supporting factors, and the futures price has reached a phased low level. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase situation [1]. - Sugar is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot sugar prices in some regions have adjusted, and raw sugar prices are boosted by the impact of crude oil on ethanol prices. The market focuses on Brazil's production progress, and after the holiday, it will focus on Inner Mongolia's production progress and September import data. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 declined, with the main contract positions decreasing. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the domestic market is under pressure from new cotton listing. The short - term trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Sugar**: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different trends, raw sugar is affected by crude oil, and the market focuses on production and import data. The futures market is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis in Xinjiang is 1603 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spot price in Xinjiang is 14942 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the national spot price is 14953 yuan, down 48 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 41 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis in Nanning is 366 yuan, down 11 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5780 yuan, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5845 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 224 to 3173, with 22 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on September 19 are different. On September 29, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 50.2, the inventory remained flat at 25.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 52.4, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On September 29, the sugar spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5845 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 483 to 8981, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China cotton price index, as well as sugar's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 点评 29 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8610 元/吨，日内跌幅 4.33%， 持仓减仓 34235 手至 20.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨， 较上一交易日下调 34 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/ 吨，现货贴水转至升水 290 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 51280 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.27%，持仓减仓 7718 手至 15.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货升水扩至 1220 元/吨。节前下游囤货规模不高，节后硅厂 降库压力较大，政策带盘的效果有限，集中备货型回暖也不具有续航 力，节前资金存在减仓离场动向，工业硅期货逐步止涨，建议观望为 主或轻仓短线操作，关注西南地区减产政策的实际落地情况。多晶硅 随着能耗标准公布，市场计价已充分反映政策预期估值，资金逐步形 成回调节奏。关注终端需求能否承接以及库存能否实质去化，警惕政 策预期落空后的回调风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The urea market is expected to operate weakly and stably around the holiday. With high domestic supply and demand pressure and expected inventory accumulation, investors are advised to hold light or no positions during the holiday [1]. - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue a wide - range oscillating trend. Although some fundamental indicators have improved, market pessimism about future supply and demand and expected inventory accumulation during the holiday may lead to potential price cuts by alkali plants. Light or no positions are recommended for the holiday [1]. - The glass futures price is expected to be relatively firm. Despite expected inventory accumulation during the holiday due to potential demand slowdown, positive macro - policies may boost market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On September 29, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 7,211, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with 114 valid forecasts. The daily production was 196,800 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous day but an increase of 5,700 tons compared to the same period last year. The开工 rate was 84.12%, 1.59 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The spot prices in some areas were flat or slightly decreased [4]. Soda Ash - On September 29, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 6,352, an increase of 600 from the previous trading day, and there were 3,096 valid forecasts. The daily开工 rate was 89.14%, up from 88.58% the previous day. The spot prices varied by region [6][7]. Glass - On September 29, the glass futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The market average price was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The daily production was 161,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price differences between different contracts and the price differences between related commodities [9][11][13][16][18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly. The US existing - home sales index in August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, reaching a five - month high, and mortgage rate cuts boosted the housing market. Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting was held on the 29th, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. LME copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 837 tons to 293,211 tons, and domestic copper social inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons. Due to the approaching holiday, downstream purchases were cautious. The impact of the mine accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has not been fully eliminated, and it will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. The copper quarterly average price is expected to rise, and investors are advised to go long on dips. They can also focus on the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and international markets [1]. Aluminum - Alumina was oscillating weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,878 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, and open interest increasing by 11,494 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum was oscillating strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,770 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.31%, and open interest decreasing by 2,320 lots to 202,000 lots. Aluminum alloy was also oscillating strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,982 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, short - position holders took profits and reduced positions, and the downward pressure on alumina eased. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, avoid shorting at low levels, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Due to the double - festival and typhoon - related shutdowns, the processing industry's holiday this year is slightly longer than last year. The market is pinning its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. During the holiday, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI and non - farm payroll data, and investors should be cautious about large external market fluctuations. They are advised to hold light positions during the holiday and focus on the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots during the holiday and the inventory - consumption trend after the holiday [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.12% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.78% to 122,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 96 tons to 25,057 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 325 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable. Stainless steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the mainstream markets at 984,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. The cost of ferronickel increased, strengthening cost support, but supply increased month - on - month. In the new energy sector, ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but cobalt policies may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The weekly social inventory of primary nickel in LME and domestic markets increased slightly. Due to macro factors, supply - side disruptions, and rising raw material prices, the bottom of nickel prices may rise slightly, but inventory remains a resistance to price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of flat - copper was 82,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from September 26th; the premium of flat - copper remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 74,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong decreased by 270 yuan to 2,284 yuan; the prices of oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,114 tons to 292,371 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons to 21.6 million tons [3]. Lead - Market prices: On September 29th, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from September 26th; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China decreased by 10 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts decreased by 2,818 tons to 31,946 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: On September 29th, the Wuxi quotation was 20,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 26th; the Nanhai quotation was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi spread increased by 10 yuan to - 70 yuan; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 515,600 tons, and the SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.5 million tons to 59.2 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons to 7.2 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan from September 26th; the price of 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased by 50 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 826 tons to 29,008 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 21,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% from September 26th; the SMM 0 spot price was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 12.84 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 272,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from September 26th; the SMM spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,300 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 429 tons to 6,559 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 tons to 2,670 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventories, SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][16][24][30][36][42]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Index Trends - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% to close at 3862.53 points with a turnover of 968.212 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05% to close at 13479.43 points with a turnover of 1193.249 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.36% with a turnover of 419.535 billion yuan, opening at 7415.13, closing at 7497.83, with a daily high of 7517.12 and a low of 7376.91 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.51% with a turnover of 433.864 billion yuan, opening at 7251.52, closing at 7350.56, with a daily high of 7377.22 and a low of 7216.74 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.09% with a turnover of 189.969 billion yuan, opening at 2940.04, closing at 2973.04, with a daily high of 3000.48 and a low of 2922.01 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.54% with a turnover of 693.395 billion yuan, opening at 4555.03, closing at 4620.05, with a daily high of 4647.57 and a low of 4541.43 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 100.24 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 109.65 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, non - bank finance, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 70.0 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 32.02 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 33.34, IM01 of - 117.12, IM02 of - 191.69, and IM03 of - 412.21 [12]. - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 31.0, IC01 of - 100.17, IC02 of - 150.99, and IC03 of - 329.66 [12]. - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.02, IF01 of - 17.61, IF02 of - 23.81, and IF03 of - 50.41 [12]. - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.54, IH01 of 0.15, IH02 of 1.98, and IH03 of 0.3 [12]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Various data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures are presented in the report, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc. For example, for IM futures at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23][25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 71,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 150 yuan/ton to 73,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - Due to the suspension of raw material supply from Ningde Times' Yichun lithium mine, the joint - venture company Longpan Times of Ningde Times and Longpan Technology stopped production on September 25. It is expected to resume production in November. Longpan Technology is actively expanding procurement sources [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the inventory increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the inventory increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - Approaching the National Day, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. Position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract price increased by 0.93% to 73,920 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices declined, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 790 tons to 41,119 tons [3]. - **News**: Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 due to raw material supply issues and is expected to resume in November. The company is actively seeking new procurement sources [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, with different changes in various production methods. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased in both production and inventory. The overall inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Near the National Day, price support exists, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project resumption has uncertainties [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore**: The main and continuous contract closing prices of lithium carbonate futures increased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose by 1 US dollar/ton, while other lithium ore prices remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased, except for the unchanged price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials mostly increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 16,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.3 yuan/Ah, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [39][41]. - **Production Cost**: The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [45]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, focuses on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, mainly studies lithium and nickel [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bonds: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market fluctuated at a high level, with the Wind All A index rising 1.37% and a turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The market should closely monitor policy announcements during the holiday and the progress of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but its stance was cautious, and there were differences within the Fed regarding the path of interest rate cuts this year. The market expects three interest rate cuts this year. The logic of loose domestic and foreign liquidity and the rise in A-share valuations remains unchanged. Short-term volatility may increase, and there is potential for further upward movement in the long term. After November, the market may gradually return to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to the year-on-year revenue growth rate in the A-share third-quarter reports and other indicators [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with declines in the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts. The central bank conducted 2886 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 decreased, while that of DR007 increased. Currently, loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but the cooling of expectations for monetary policy interest rate cuts and the increase in quasi-fiscal tools restrict the bond market. With the continuous advancement of anti-involution policies and the bullish stock market, bond market sentiment is cautious, and the sideways and bearish trend continues. During the holiday, attention should be paid to the September PMI data and holiday consumption and travel data [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The A-share market showed a high-level shock, with different indices rising to varying degrees. The market needs to pay attention to policy announcements during the holiday and the progress of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The Fed cut interest rates, but there were differences in the path of interest rate cuts. The logic of loose liquidity and rising valuations remains unchanged, with short-term volatility expected to increase and long-term upward potential. After November, the market may return to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to relevant indicators [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 changed. Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and the increase in quasi-fiscal tools restrict the bond market. With the bullish stock market, bond market sentiment is cautious, and the sideways and bearish trend continues. Attention should be paid to relevant data during the holiday [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The prices of IH, IF, IC, and IM increased, with increases of 1.07%, 1.76%, 2.15%, and 2.06% respectively [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all rose, with increases of 1.09%, 1.54%, 1.51%, and 1.36% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased, with decreases of 0.02%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.41% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds changed, with changes of -0.94, 0.33, 0.11, and 1.1 respectively [3] Market News - On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it is promoting the work of new policy-based financial instruments with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, all of which will be used to supplement project capital. The funds will be invested in specific projects, and local governments will be urged to accelerate project construction to promote economic development [4] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trend charts of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trend charts of each index [6][7][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trend charts of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund interest rates [13][14][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the trend charts of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and various currency pairs [23][24][27]

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the impact of the rainy season on bauxite mines will gradually fade, and the long - term agreement price may be slightly lowered. The loose pattern of alumina will continue, and the margin is expected to gradually converge. It is recommended to continue the strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term, while being vigilant against policy tightening at the Guinean mine end and irregular production cuts caused by environmental protection during the heating season or losses, which may lead to a phased oversold rebound. - In the fourth quarter, with the continuous implementation of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the price of electrolytic aluminum above the 20,000 - yuan mark will continue to be more likely to rise than to fall. It is advisable to mainly go long on dips. Whether the demand can be substantially improved after the Double Festival may determine the final high of the aluminum price this year. Attention should be paid to the demand fulfillment and the remaining two interest - rate cut dynamics of the Federal Reserve this year. - In the fourth quarter, with the cancellation of waste - aluminum tax rebates and the recovery of peak - season demand in November, aluminum alloys will strengthen relative to electrolytic aluminum, presenting an AD - AL arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt registration and subsequent delivery [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price - In the third quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of September 25, the main contract closed at 2,942 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,765 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.9%. The aluminum alloy futures, which were listed in June, fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,385 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3% [6][8]. Supply - Alumina: From January to September, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 66.606 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The operating capacity rose to 91.35 million tons, and the operating rate rose to 82.8%. The domestic alumina supply has increased slightly, with new domestic and overseas alumina production capacities being put into operation at an excessive speed, and the pace of release slowing down after a significant narrowing of profits. - Electrolytic aluminum: From January to September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 32.757 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The operating capacity rose to 44 million tons, the operating rate rose to 96.3%, and the molten - aluminum ratio rose to 76%. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, with technological transformation projects in Guangxi and early replacement projects in Guizhou and Yunnan gradually starting production [4][6]. Demand - The peak - season effect and the high - price suppression of inventory replenishment coexist. The average operating rate in the third quarter was 60.1%, a year - on - year decline of 2.51%. From June to August, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the average processing PMI at 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and cables declined significantly year - on - year, while aluminum profiles showed relative resilience [4][6]. Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 96,000 tons to 114,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 33,400 tons to 128,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 172,000 tons to 517,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons; the aluminum - ingot inventory increased by 139,000 tons to 617,000 tons; the aluminum - rod inventory decreased by 36,500 tons to 123,000 tons [4][7]. Aluminum Ore - Production: Mines in Shanxi and Henan first resumed production and then were restricted by environmental protection. Domestic ore production first increased and then declined. - Import: In the third quarter, affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the proportion of ore imports gradually decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume was 1.82898 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [32][34]. Downstream - Operating rate: The operating rates of multiple downstream sectors declined year - on - year. The declines in the plate, strip, foil, and cable sectors were significant, at 6%, 5%, and 6% respectively. - Orders: From June to August, the average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI was 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth [56][62]. Capacity - Domestic alumina: The new incremental level is large, and the over - supply pressure will further increase. The total planned new capacity is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [71]. - Overseas alumina: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned new capacity is 14.4 million tons [72][73]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new capacity is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [74]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: There are regional differences and a lag in rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into operation in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [75]. Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina continues to be in surplus. From January to August, the overseas alumina and primary - aluminum production was 39.86 million tons and 19.66 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a decline of 0.1% [91]. Supply - Demand Balance - Alumina: It is expected to turn to a state where the surplus margin narrows in the fourth quarter. - Electrolytic aluminum: The demand will turn to a tight state in the fourth quarter [93][94]. Options - The report also analyzed the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes of alumina options and Shanghai aluminum options [96][103][107].