农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 在连续两日的期货调整过程中，玉米期价领跌，现货强于期货，基差回归。近期玉米 5 月合约持仓 | 震荡 | | | 本周，玉米期价窄幅波动。玉米主力合约围绕 2300 元关口震荡，7 月合约持仓增加，期价基本收平。 | | | | 下降，7 月合约增仓，加权合约持仓增加，说明多空参与意愿逐步恢复。现货市场方面，东北玉米 | | | | 价格暂无明显调整，虽成交情冴一般，但贸易商心态较为平稳，低价出库意向一般。北港水分 15% | | | | 贸易粮价格表现一般，但 14.5%呕吐毒素不超的玉米价格表现良好，呈现出优质优价的状态。华北 | | | | 地区玉米价格整体维持稳定，主流价格不变。山东深加工企业早间到货车辆增加，基本能够满足企 | | | | 业生产需求，个别企业价格窄幅调整。河北、河南深加工企业价格基本维持稳定。基层购销清淡， | | | | 贸易商陆续出货。深加工企业亏损，企业开工率下滑，同时下游饲料企业小麦替代逐渐展开，抑制 | | | | 玉米需求。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 0.4% to 70,500 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 74,025 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 29,262 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 574 tons to 17,388 tons, mainly from spodumene - based lithium extraction. The expected output in April is nearly 80,000 tons, and the daily average output increased by 4% month - on - month. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials increased significantly month - on - month, the output of lithium iron phosphate remained the same month - on - month, and the daily average consumption of lithium carbonate increased by about 5% month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of ternary cathode materials increased slightly, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. The weekly inventory increased by 585 tons to 131,605 tons, with a decrease in other aspects and an increase in both upstream and downstream [3]. - The price is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, attention should be paid to the upstream production suspension and reduction, warehouse receipt inventory, and lithium ore price trends. In the medium term, the equilibrium price center will move down, the market purchasing activity is average, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract and the continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures was 70,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 809 US dollars/ton. The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton, except for the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea, which remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 58,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 2,650 yuan/ton. The difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 6 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, except for the prices of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) which decreased by 50 yuan/ton and ternary material 811 (power type) which decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.02 yuan/piece, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells decreased by 0.003 yuan/Wh, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.05 yuan/Ah. The prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: There are charts showing the price trends of metallic lithium, average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - Price differences: There are charts showing the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [20][26]. - Lithium battery prices: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][32]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 15, 2024, to April 3, 2025 [34][36]. - Production cost: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [42]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 39440 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.33%，持仓增仓 2106 手至 56218 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2560 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9015 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.93%，持仓 减仓 10944 手至 12.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10335 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 60 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9200 元/吨，现货升水扩至 140 元/吨。日内新 疆大厂出现减产消息，力度相对有限，未引发市场反弹情绪。工业硅供需双减，基 本面乏善可陈，延续弱势盘整，仍需关注后续减产扩大动向。多晶硅下游交货周期 延长，叠加 430 抢装潮进入尾声后，需求逐渐向弱预期靠拢，硅片排产出现下滑， 价格负反馈开始向上传导。晶硅逐步转入供需失衡阶段、存在延续探底压力。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | 分 项 | | | 202 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | | 震荡 | | | 周四尿素现货市场继续弱势下调，主流地区价格下行幅度 10~20 元/吨不等，目前山东、河南市场价格 分别回落至 1880 元/吨、1870 元/吨，期货盘面主力移仓换月后 09 合约及近月合约贴水幅度仍较为明 | | | | 显，后期基差修复方向仍值得关注。基本面来看，尿素供应日环比稳定，昨日日产量仍为 19.10 万吨， | | | | 同比依旧偏高。需求端跟进缓慢，昨日主流地区产销均在 20%-50%区间，对市场支撑力度有限。本周 | | | | 尿素企业库存增幅 8.70%，不利于企业挺价及中下游采购情绪释放。整体来看，短期尿素市场情绪依旧 | | | | 偏弱，期货盘面仍将延续偏弱震荡趋势。不过，3-5 月仍处于旺季周期，价格跌至低位后采购需求也仍 | | | | 有释放可能，关注下旬及月底中下游备货情况，另需关注尿素现货成交情况、尿素日产水平、宏观情绪 | | | | 变化及商品市场整体情绪。 | ...

Group 1: Research Views - ICE U.S. cotton rose 1.11% to 67.11 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 rose 0.16% to 12,890 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 19,061 lots to 512,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,032 yuan per ton, down 97 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,200 yuan per ton, down 52 yuan from the previous day. Short - term Zheng cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1]. - The spot sugar quotes in Guangxi were 6,130 - 6,240 yuan per ton, with some up 20 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan were 5,940 - 6,000 yuan per ton, up 10 - 30 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price rebounded. Domestically, the spot quotes rose slightly yesterday. In the short term, it will follow the raw sugar's rebound, but in the medium term, with the import window open, the price will fluctuate [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 195, down 20; the main contract basis was 1,310, down 112. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,032, down 97, and the national spot price was 14,200, down 52 [2]. - For sugar, the 5 - 9 contract spread was 174, down 6; the main contract basis was 234, down 12. The Nanning spot price was 6,170, up 40, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,150, unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On April 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,833, an increase of 118 from the previous trading day, with 2,828 valid forecasts [3]. - On April 17, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,032 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,174 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,283 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,203 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On April 17, the yarn comprehensive load was 55.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 21.3, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 54.4, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.7, up 0.1 [3]. - On April 17, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,170 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. - On April 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 27,410, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 1,366 valid forecasts [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. He has won multiple analyst titles [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile category senior analyst title in 2024 [21].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心大幅上移，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘上涨 2.21 美元至 | | | | 64.68 美元/桶，涨幅 3.54%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘上涨 2.11 美元 | | | | 至 67.96 美元/桶，涨幅 3.20%。SC2506 以 495.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 16.3 元/桶，涨幅为 3.40%。由于特朗普加大了对伊朗能源出口的 | | | | 施压力度，同时美国与几大主要贸易伙伴的谈判带来了有望达成 | | | | 协议的乐观预期，油价连续第二天上涨。此前美国总统特朗普发 | | | | 布最新政策，制裁所谓的海外"茶壶"炼油厂，这加剧了市场对 | | | | 供应的担忧。且特朗普表示他有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议，美日 | | | 原油 | 之间的谈判也进一步提升了市场对达成协议、避免关税最严重影 | 震荡 | | | 响的预期。欧盟正考虑对部分对美出口产品实施限制，作为对美 | | | | 总统上个 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 04 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 统计局公布多项一季度经济数据：中国一季度 GDP 录得 5.4%；3 月社零同 | | | | 比 5.9%，消费端对经济总量形成超额贡献。这也与此前公布的社融高于季节 | | | | 性水平的数据基本一致。受到关税影响，二季度相关数据可能出现回落。截 | | | | 止 2025 年 4 月 12 日，美国对华关税税率加增 125%。美国海关等机构发布 | | | | 关税豁免清单，对符合门槛的中国进口商品中的美国技术部分免征关税。对 | | | | 部分国家实施暂缓关税政策。中国国务院发布《中美经贸关系中方立场白皮 | | | 股指 | 书》，阐述中方立场。美国本轮关税政策的本质是当局试图以降低经常账户 | 震荡 | | | 逆差的方式缓解资本账户顺差不足的压力，这一问题短期难以解决。关税政 | | | | 策仍是手段，而非目的，其真实目的仍是通过点对点的谈判重塑全球贸易格 | | | | 局。在其他经济体与美国谈判过程中，其对华关 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 点评 16 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 40265 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.06%，持仓增仓 4673 手至 54112 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1735 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9020 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.28%，持仓 减仓 12645 手至 13.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10395 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 32 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9200 元/吨，现货升水扩至 65 元/吨。日内新 疆大厂出现减产消息，力度相对有限，未引发市场反弹情绪。工业硅供需双减，基 本面乏善可陈，延续弱势盘整，仍需关注后续减产扩大动向。多晶硅下游交货周期 延长，叠加 430 抢装潮进入尾声后，需求逐渐向弱预期靠拢，硅片排产出现下滑， 价格负反馈开始向上传导。晶硅逐步转入供需失衡阶段、存在延续探底压力。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅日报 三、图表分析 3.1 工业硅及成本端价 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.3 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.7%，报收 12830 元 | | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 18452 手 49.34 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14129 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 90 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14252 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日下降 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面影响仍在继续，特朗普宣布对中国对华 | | | | 关税税率加征至 245%，鲍威尔昨夜讲话，偏鹰，降息预期延后。美元指数再度下 | 弱势震 | | | 行跌破 100 整数关口。基本面扰动有限，美棉持续播种中，进度略慢于往年同期， | | | | 市场关注重心仍在于宏观层面，预计短期仍有反复。国内市场方面，市场情绪仍有 | 荡 | | | 波动，多数商品下跌，郑棉期价重心随之下移。基本面来看，下游纺织企业开机负 | | | | 荷略有下降，终端需求 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜表现偏强；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，海外方面，昨晚美联储主 席鲍威尔讲话仍无视特朗普降息呼声，一方面，他认为加征关税等政策让经济面临很高 | | | 的不确定性，联储要等到形势更明朗再考虑降息、要避免关税持久推升通胀。关税推高 | | | 通胀，让经济增长放缓，被视为提出了滞胀的担忧。另一方面，他警告投资者，面对不 | | 铜 | 确定性，美股等金融市场会继续波动，但否认联储会大规模"救市"。鲍威尔讲话加剧 | | | 了美元金融资产的撕裂。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 3775 吨至 216250 吨。需求方 | | | 面，铜价剧烈波动，下游开工和订单保持平稳。美政府政策的不确定性正日益加重市场 | | | 的担忧，一是美滞胀忧虑，二是全球经济和贸易的波动，所以铜价虽出现修复性反弹， | | | 但担忧情绪下，预计本轮反弹高度受限。短期铜需求维持韧性下仍以偏强看待，关注 | | | 78000~80000 元/吨阻力区间，情绪上关注美股及 LME ...