Group 1: Financial Instrument Prices and Changes - DROO1 closed at 1.31, down 0.53bp; DR007 closed at 1.42, down 3.65bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.54, up 21.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.49, up 1.00bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.33, up 1.20bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53, up 0.10bp [3] - 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.74, down 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.09, down 0.20bp [3] - IF当月 closed at 4646, up 0.1%; IH当月 closed at 3018, unchanged; IC当月 closed at 7293, unchanged; IM当月 closed at 7471, up 0.4% [5] - IF成交量 was 115046, down 17.7%; IF持仓量 was 270097, down 0.4% [5] - IH成交量 was 51158, down 19.2%; IH持仓量 was 96979, down 2.6% [5] - IC成交量 was 140206, down 3.5%; IC持仓量 was 254358, unchanged [5] - IM成交量 was 229133, down 9.5%; IM持仓量 was 362939, up 0.2% [5] Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3373 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [3] - This week, 20680 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 3373 billion, 4753 billion, 5577 billion, 3426 billion, and 3551 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 0.27% to 4653.4; the SSE 50 rose 0.16% to 3016.4; the CSI 500 rose 0.04% to 7333.6; the CSI 1000 rose 0.42% to 7538.1 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 21071 billion yuan, a decrease of 2107 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with shipbuilding, gaming, culture and media, coal, photovoltaic equipment, power supply equipment, petroleum, mining, and airport sectors leading the gains, while small metals, batteries, and jewelry sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, as positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations are gradually released, market sentiment may shift from relatively optimistic to cautious, and the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. In the medium - to - long term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid [6] - The strategy suggests taking advantage of opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantages of medium - to - long - term long - position strategies [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF升贴水 was 3.14% for the current - month contract, 3.17% for the next - month contract, 2.48% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.71% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IH升贴水 was - 0.84% for the current - month contract, - 0.07% for the next - month contract, - 0.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.12% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IC升贴水 was 11.28% for the current - month contract, 10.17% for the next - month contract, 9.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.43% for the next - quarter contract [7] - IM升贴水 was 17.95% for the current - month contract, 14.75% for the next - month contract, 12.20% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.67% for the next - quarter contract [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices declined slightly. In the future, steel production is expected to gradually decrease, which may initially suppress furnace materials and later lead to a joint upward movement of the sector [2]. - The sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined, and prices oscillated. They are likely to face pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - There is a strong expectation for the third round of price hikes for coking coal and coke to be implemented. However, considering the weakening steel demand, the possibility of the coking coal and coke market returning to a volatile state increases [2]. - The upward pressure on iron ore prices is obvious, and prices are falling. It is advisable to hold short positions [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On November 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3304 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan, - 0.63%), I2605 at 760.5 yuan/ton (up 14.5 yuan, + 1.87%), J2605 at 1908.5 yuan/ton (down 21.5 yuan, - 1.11%), JM2605 at 1347.5 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan, - 1.03%) [1]. - For near - month contracts (main contracts), RB2601 closed at 3079 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan, - 0.96%), HC2601 at 3295 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan, - 0.60%), I2601 at 782.5 yuan/ton (down 14.5 yuan, - 1.82%), J2601 at 1771.5 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan, - 1.17%), JM2601 at 1284.5 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan, - 0.85%) [1]. - On November 3rd, the cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605 were - 66 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 were - 9 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), I2601 - 2605 were 22 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), J2601 - 2605 were - 137 yuan/ton (down 1.5 yuan), JM2601 - 2605 were - 63 yuan/ton (up 2.5 yuan) [1]. - For spreads/ratios/profits of main contracts on November 3rd, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 216 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.93 (up 0.05), the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.38 (unchanged), the rebar surface profit was - 155.63 yuan/ton (up 4.63 yuan), and the coking surface profit was 63.12 yuan/ton (down 3.51 yuan) [1]. Spot Market - On November 3rd, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar were 3210 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin rebar 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), Guangzhou rebar 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tangshan billets 2950 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the Platts Index was 105.85 (down 1.55) [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3300 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coils 3340 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Guangzhou hot - rolled coils 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), the billet - product spread was 260 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special fines were 723 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), a certain type of ore was 775 yuan/ton (unchanged), coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1420 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1530 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PB fines at Qingdao Port were 800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - On November 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 5 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), RB main contract was 131 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan), I main contract was 27 yuan/ton (unchanged), J main contract was - 91.34 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), JM main contract was 165.5 yuan/ton (up 31.5 yuan) [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading; for futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for the opportunity for futures - cash positive arbitrage [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, adopt a wait - and - see approach for the time being [2]. - For coking coal and coke, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support, and consider going long in the medium - to - long - term. Industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [2]. - For iron ore, hold short positions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and are likely to further stabilize. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [5] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the unsustainable US debt and intensifying great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With central banks' gold purchases continuing, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **15 - point price tracking of internal and external gold and silver on November 3, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4017.06 per ounce, London silver spot at $48.86 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4028.00 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.58 per ounce, AU2512 at 922.58 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11455 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 919.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11424 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the price changes were 0.2%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [4] - **15 - point price tracking of spreads and ratios on November 3, 2025**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 31 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.32 yuan per gram, silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 1022 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 80.54, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 82.91, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.82 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 24 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the changes were - 5.4%, - 38.0%, - 10.8%, - 7.8%, - 0.1%, 0.2%, - 7.8%, and - 4.0% respectively [4] 3.2 Position Data - **As of October 31, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1039.2 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15189.81735 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 30, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 87816.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 658851.00 kilograms. As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38168047 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 482438705 troy ounces. Compared with the previous period, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.01%, - 0.20%, and - 0.14% respectively [4] 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. As of October 31, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.73, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, VIX was 17.44, the S&P 500 was 6840.20, and NYMEX crude oil was $60.88 per barrel. Compared with the previous period, the changes were - 0.02%, 0.19%, - 0.28%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 0.26%, and 0.98% respectively [4] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market review**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.47% to 922.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.39% to 11455 yuan per kilogram [4] - **Analysis and short - term outlook**: The new gold tax policy mainly aims to standardize the gold market, strengthen tax supervision, and has limited impact on prices. With factors such as decreased market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown, precious metal prices are in a range - bound oscillation. However, the divergence within the Fed on a December rate cut and the strong US dollar index will suppress the short - term upside of precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and may further stabilize [5] - **Medium - and long - term outlook**: In the long run, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainties, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained. [6][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On November 3, 2025, among the futures prices, SP2601 was 5306 with a daily increase of 1.80% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2511 was 4890 with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 0.78%; SP2605 was 5346 with a daily increase of 1.63% and a weekly increase of 0.91%. [6] - Among the spot prices, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, Russian softwood pulp was 5100, and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, all with no daily or weekly changes. [6] - In the foreign market quotes (in dollars), the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month. [6] - In terms of import costs, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month. [6] Fundamental Data - In terms of imports, in September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.10 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp was 135.60 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month. [6] - Regarding domestic production, on October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.7 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 million tons. [6] - For inventory, on October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 million tons. [6] - In terms of demand, on October 30, 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 20.60 million tons, coated paper was 8.60 million tons, tissue paper was 28.39 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons. [6] Valuation Data - On November 3, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 210 with a quantile level of 0.9, and the basis of Silver Star was 610 with a quantile level of 0.866. [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557. [6] Supply - demand - inventory Situation - Supply: Chilean Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star price in October was 680 dollars per ton, down 20 dollars per ton; hardwood pulp Star was 540 dollars per ton, unchanged; and chemimechanical pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, unchanged. [6][11] - Demand: White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but it remains to be seen whether the price increases can be implemented. Overall demand is still weak. [11] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a narrow - range inventory accumulation compared with the previous period. [11]

Group 1: Report's Core View - Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, but the situation has not exceeded market expectations, and market optimism has declined [2] - PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. China's polyester exports are still optimistic [2] - Although there are rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information from the meeting, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200. The industry profit is still constrained by over - capacity caused by new device commissioning [2] - Despite the end of the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", export demand may improve under the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry is expected to last until November [2] Group 2: Data Summary Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4510 to 4535, and the closing price rose from 4586 to 4596 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4106 to 4068, and the closing price dropped from 4018 to 3970 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6405 to 6390 [2] Other Indicators - Short - fiber basis decreased from 174 to 131, and the 12 - 1 spread decreased from 38 to 46 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 [2] - Polyester bottle sheet average price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained flat, and the spot processing fee increased from 466 to 475 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price and 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1005 to 990 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 49.00% to 47.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, and recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Although there are rumors of anti - involution in the polyester industry, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200 due to lack of information. Industry profits are still affected by over - capacity. In the context of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is still low, port arrivals are limited, and overseas imports are expected to decline. New capacity puts pressure on prices, and low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. Sino - US trade negotiations may increase export demand for textile and clothing [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, to 467.9 yuan/barrel on November 3, 2025, an increase of 9.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA futures price rose slightly, with the main contract rising from 4586 yuan/ton to 4596 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price rose from 4510 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 122.1 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 198.1 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main contract price of MEG decreased from 4018 yuan/ton to 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The domestic market price decreased from 4106 yuan/ton to 4068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 820 to 819, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 239 [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased by 100 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 30 yuan/ton. The cash flow of POY, FDY, and DTY all improved [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.21%, PTA start - up rate remained at 79.66%, MEG start - up rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load increased from 89.34% to 89.56%, an increase of 0.22% [2]. 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - For PTA, although the Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, the market's optimistic sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the low inventory situation and the impact of new capacity on prices should be concerned [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "going long" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely. Driven by macro - level and fundamental factors in the natural rubber market, rubber prices continued to rise. However, due to the impact of typhoons and heavy rainfall in overseas and domestic production areas, raw material supply was restricted, and processing plants' eagerness to purchase raw materials at higher prices strengthened cost - side support [6]. - Currently, raw material prices have strong support, mid - stream inventories are continuously decreasing, downstream demand remains stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. In the short term, rubber prices may maintain a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan and Hainan increased. In Thailand, although the northeast had normal supply growth, the south faced supply constraints due to heavy rainfall, and raw material prices rose. In Vietnam, raw material supply was tight due to excessive rainfall, and prices were firm [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will fluctuate slightly in the next period, and some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance in November [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU on the SHFE decreased, while that of 20 - number rubber increased [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. After the holiday, the spread between RU and mixed rubber widened, and the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR also widened [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex narrowed, while the loss of the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk latex improved [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Neutral. The suspension of relevant Sino - US tariff policies has reduced previous negative disturbances, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, rubber prices continued to rise. As of October 31, the RU main contract closed at 15,085 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton (-1.63%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,230 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 275 yuan/ton (-2.20%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [9]. - **Position**: RU positions were low, and NR positions decreased. The spread between RU and NR widened [17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting raw material supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to September, China imported 4.7172 million tons of natural rubber (+19.65%). In September, the import volume increased significantly, and Thailand was the largest source country [86][92][99]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to decline. As of October 26, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.0389 million tons, a decline of 1% [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the next period [109][117]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventories in Shandong decreased slightly [118]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, China exported 7.28 million tons of rubber tires (+5%) [137][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk latex was in a loss state [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [168].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation has made some progress, but the situation exceeding market expectations has not occurred, and market optimism has declined [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, polyester production has remained stable, and the polyester load has been maintained above 90%. The export of domestic polyester remains optimistic [2]. - Although there have been rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information on anti - involution in the meeting, the PTA processing fee has been compressed to less than 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning [2]. - Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October", against the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow [2][3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4510, a decrease of 25 [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4147 to 4106, a decrease of 41 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4570 to 4586, an increase of 16 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4032 to 4018, a decrease of 14 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6430 to 6405, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 140 to 174, an increase of 34 [2]. - 11 - 12 spread decreased from 28 to 46 (the description in the text may have an error, assuming it is a decrease of 18) [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1030 to 1005, a decrease of 25 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5814 to 5798, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 447 to 466, an increase of 19.11 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10320 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3890 to 3915, an increase of 25 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14540, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1539 to 1557, an increase of 18.46 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7010 to 7020, an increase of 10 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 543 to 588, an increase of 45.11 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7420 to 7480, an increase of 60 [2]. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production factories has remained stable, the price of traders has declined, downstream buyers have purchased as needed, and the market transaction has been tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is between 6160 - 6510 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pickup), in the North China market is between 6280 - 6630 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market is between 6170 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - In the bottle chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5680 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures have fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the market trading atmosphere has been cold, the purchasing willingness of downstream terminals has been low, and the market center of gravity has shifted down [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 43.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 6.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors. The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, but the short - term nature of the agreement may not bring long - term confidence to importers. The EC market is in a volatile state, and in the short - term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will support the market, but the market has already factored in some premiums [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1551, up 10.49% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1021, up 2.89%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have all increased significantly [3][4] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most have seen a decline in value compared to the previous period. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1379.6, down 1.69% from the previous value. In terms of positions, most contracts have increased in position size, such as EC2606 with a position increase of 110 [4][5] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 12 - 02 month - to - month spread is currently 250.4, down 10.4 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 642.9, down 25.0; and the 02 - 04 spread is 392.5, down 14.6 [5] Market Analysis - **Sino - US Trade Policy Impact**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the relaxation of some trade policies, which alleviated the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on US routes, it also improves the outlook for European routes. However, the short - term nature of the agreement may not provide long - term confidence to importers [5] - **EC Market**: The EC market is in a volatile state. Spot prices vary among different shipping companies. Key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term contract variables. The recommendation is to go long on the main contract at low prices and closely monitor suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [6] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report In the short - term, with the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report earnings, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and various asset prices are expected to be in a volatile stage. Policy support and abundant macro - liquidity provide support for the market, but there are also factors that suppress price increases in different sectors [1]. Summary by Related Categories Macro - finance - **Stock index**: In the short - term, the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually stabilize [1]. - **Silver**: With multiple factors in play, the silver price may remain volatile [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the copper price has corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is limited industrial - side drive recently, and after the digestion of macro - positives, the aluminum price fluctuates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental weakness pressures the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The overall macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the LME zinc squeeze risk has decreased but still exists. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate, with high inventory still suppressing. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The short - term stainless steel futures may oscillate. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - **Tin**: Considering the unrepaired raw material end and good new - demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Northwest production capacity is resuming, polysilicon production in November is decreasing, and it is affected by the spill - over of polysilicon [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The new energy vehicle peak season is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure [1]. Black metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Direct demand is good with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates price fluctuations [1]. - **Coking coal**: Coking coal is challenging the previous high, but there is uncertainty about whether it can break through. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot for hedging when the price rises [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: It still faces the dual pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short - term, but may rebound if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The agreement to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months may bring a loose supply expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The current price has fully priced in the selling pressure, and the downward space is limited, but the basis and price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have seasonal upward momentum in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the supply situation restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. It is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live pigs**: The short - term futures price may weaken following the spot price, and there is still pressure on slaughter in November [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and market sentiment has eased [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, it follows crude oil, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, with sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Natural rubber**: It is supported by raw material costs, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support of butadiene has declined, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose [1]. - **PTA**: The news of the "anti - involution" policy and production cuts have pushed up the price [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal - based cost support has strengthened, and polyester demand has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the cost closely, and the basis has strengthened with the rise of PTA price [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene has decreased [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and "anti - involution" [1]. - **PVC**: The market has returned to fundamentals, with reduced maintenance, more near - month warehouse receipts, and a weakening trend [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are plans for alumina production in Guangxi, less concentrated maintenance, and problems with warehouse receipt digestion [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1]. - **Container shipping (European line)**: The price has fallen to a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound. It is entering the contract - changing stage and is expected to stop falling [1].