Guo Mao Qi Huo
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宏观金融数据日报-20251229
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 07:00
if 市 场 与 性 亿元逆回购到期,其中周一、周二、周三、周日分别到期673亿元、593 亿元、260亿元、4701亿元。其中,周日到期的7天期逆回购金额为2701 亿元,到期的14天期逆回购金额为2000亿元。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 4657 | 0.32 | IF当月 | 4657 | 0.5 | | 上证50 | 3045 | 0.41 | IH景月 | 3048 | 0.5 | | 中证500 | 7459 | 0.65 | IC当月 | 7456 | 0.8 | | 中证1000 | 7606 | 0.35 | IM当月 | 7595 | 0.6 | | IF成交量 | 118846 | 36.4 | IF持仓量 | 287905 | 6.0 | | IH成交量 | 51085 | 57.6 | IH持仓量 | 92844 | 11.5 | | IC成交量 | 149544 | 38.5 | IC持 ...
股指期权数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 11:14
投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/26 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 820. 76 上证50 28. 27 3032. 8414 0. 25 3853. 56 沪深300 4642. 5357 0. 18 139. 43 7579. 3791 0. 97 228. 74 中证1000 4344. 19 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 1. 17 0. 70 0. 60 2. 95 0. 66 1. 88 1. 95 4. 90 5. 58 沪深300 8. 39 2. 81 0. 50 16. 26 6. 64 0. 69 9. 62 中证1000 23. 96 14. 33 0. 67 26. 04 9. 63 13. 09 12. 95 0. 99 中证1000PCR走势 沪深300PCR走势 ...
国贸期货股指期权数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 07:14
股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/26 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 820. 76 上证50 28. 27 3032. 8414 0. 25 3853. 56 沪深300 4642. 5357 0. 18 139. 43 7579. 3791 0. 97 228. 74 中证1000 4344. 19 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 1. 17 0. 70 0. 60 2. 95 0. 66 1. 88 1. 95 4. 90 5. 58 沪深300 8. 39 2. 81 0. 50 16. 26 6. 64 0. 69 9. 62 中证1000 23. 96 14. 33 0. 67 26. 04 9. 63 13. 09 12. 95 0. 99 中证1000PCR走势 沪 ...
国贸期货日度策略参考-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 07:10
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].
国贸期货纸浆数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 06:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of the new round of price increase letters is good, domestic inventories have decreased, and the market is expected to be in a volatile and bullish trend [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On December 25, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5,532 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day-on-day and up 2.03% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day-on-day and up 2.32% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5,604 yuan/ton, down 0.28% day-on-day and up 1.89% week-on-week [6] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, with no change day-on-day and week-on-week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle had a calculation error; the price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 0 yuan/ton, down 100% day-on-day and week-on-week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: The foreign quotes of Chilean Silver Star were 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish were 580 dollars/ton, up 3.57% month-on-month; and Chilean Venus were 620 dollars/ton, with no change month-on-month [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4,749 yuan/ton, up 3.53% month-on-month; and Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan/ton, with no change month-on-month [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% from October; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% from October. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly. Suzano announced a global price increase for broadleaf pulp in January 2026 [6] - **Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated. Currently, the demand side remains weak, with the prices of cultural paper in mainstream wood pulp paper products continuing to decline, while tissue paper and white cardboard have slightly increased [6]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows complex trends. The shipping rates of various routes have different degrees of increase or decrease, and the market is currently in a state of shock. The main contract has fully factored in the optimistic expectations for the future SCFIS index. If the actual index does not meet the expectations, the market may face a significant correction. The market is currently gambling on the time point of the pre - holiday spot shipping rate peak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Rate Index - **Spot Shipping Rate Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1506, with a 7.79% increase from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, with a 0.29% increase. The shipping rates of various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also increased to varying degrees, with increases ranging from 4.11% to 19.00% [3] - **Contract Shipping Rate**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the increase or decrease is relatively small, with the largest increase being 1.06% and the largest decrease being - 0.04% [3] - **Position and Month - Spread**: The positions of different contracts have different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the position of EC2610 has increased by 277, while the position of EC2606 has decreased by 19. The month - spreads of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 also have small changes [3] Market News - **Maersk**: Maersk has taken a "significant step" towards returning to the Red Sea. A Singapore - flagged ship passed through the Mandeb Strait controlled by the Houthi rebels, but Maersk emphasized that this does not mean a large - scale return to the Red Sea route [3] - **European Ports**: European major ports are preparing for the situation where ships bypassing the Cape of Good Hope and ships passing through the Suez Canal arrive at the ports simultaneously, which will have a chain reaction on the entire supply chain [3] - **Hapag - Lloyd**: Hapag - Lloyd has abandoned the plan to resume using the Suez Canal on the India - US East Coast route due to customer opposition. As of November this year, it accounted for about 23% of the market on this route, with an annual cargo volume of about 303,500 TEU [3] Market Analysis - **Market Trend**: The market trend is in a state of shock. The spot prices of shipping companies such as Maersk, ONE, and CMA have different price adjustment strategies. Maersk's quotes for the first week of January are 2500, and 2600 - 2700 for the second week, the same as in early December, and it previously planned to raise the price to 3500 [4] - **Market Logic**: The main contract has fully factored in the optimistic expectations for the future SCFIS index. If the actual index does not meet the expectations, the market may face a significant correction. The time value consumption risk is prominent, and the market is currently gambling on the time point of the pre - holiday spot shipping rate peak [5] - **Investment Strategy**: The recommended investment strategy is to wait and see [6]
蛋白数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the domestic customs meeting rumors, the soybean meal futures market showed strength today. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic relevant policy dynamics. With the expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the South American premium is expected to face selling pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot and Basis Data - On December 25th, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot contracts in different regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) decreased by 32 compared to the previous period. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 108. The M1 - 5 spread was 315 with an increase of 5 [4] Spread and Price Difference Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 84 with an increase of 13. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 547 with a decrease of 6 [5] Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1.776 billion tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. The rumor of a 25 - day customs clearance delay has increased concerns about the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with a high premium [7] Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory level in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month period. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were normal, and the提货 performance was good [8] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises increased this week [8]
日度策略参考-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:36
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].
贵金属数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:31
the first 1)行情回顾: 12月25日,沪金期货主力合约收跌0.39%至1008.76元/克,沪银期货主力合约收涨2.64%至17397元/千克。 行情殊词_2)影响因素分析:澳外进入圣诞假期,外盘休市,市场消息面嘉淡,黄金价格整体维持高位运行,自银则受到资金情绪助推,价格弹性进一步释放,沪银主力突 戏玩作品 i r800元/千克关口,再创历史新高。展望后市,贵金属价格短期科维持高位偏强运行,但目前白银呈现较为显著的加速上涨态势,场内杠杆风险继续累积,后续 群《个人 散火000元》中范文目,何创办奖机构》次至唐书,灵宝热分相组组的演绎风险。综合,背略:单边短期建现双形基 l3)中长期观点:中长期来看、美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步墙 加美元信用风险,全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈科。国资新货力求准确可靠,但不对上达德息的准辟性及完整性收任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的设资目标、仅务 ...
瓶片短纤数据日报-20251226
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]