| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心。 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/6/12 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年6月11日 | HMH | 周环比 | | | 2025年6月11日 | 日刊十 HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5270 | -0. 23% | 0. 38% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6150 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5346 | -0. 56% | 0. 91% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5350 | 0. 00% | 0. 56% | | | SP2509 | 5260 | -0. 45% | 0. 46% ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro-financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro-Financial Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Market Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -1.41bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -0.63bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with an 8.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a -0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a -10.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.41 with a -0.25bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.50 with a 0.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.49 with a -2.00bp change [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% the previous day. With 4545 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 2559 billion yuan [3] - This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2149 billion, 1265 billion, and 1350 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively [4] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 3865 with a -0.51% change, IF current - month contract at 3841 with a -0.7% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2676 with a -0.39% change, IH current - month contract at 2660 with a -0.6% change; the CSI 500 closed at 5758 with a -0.82% change, IC current - month contract at 5718 with a -0.8% change; the CSI 1000 closed at 6162 with a -0.92% change, IM current - month contract at 6114 with a -0.9% change [5] - IF trading volume was 98975 with a 12.2% change, IF open interest was 238881 with a -1.6% change; IH trading volume was 26839 with a 28.1% change, IH open interest was 84465 with a 0.1% change; IC trading volume was 86124 with a 12.8% change, IC open interest was 219085 with a -0.7% change; IM trading volume was 212759 with a 23.5% change, IM open interest was 338127 with a 4.2% change [5] Market Analysis and Suggestions - The domestic factors have weak driving force for the stock index. The fundamentals are weak, with prices remaining low and export growth slowing. The policy is in a relatively quiet period [6] - Overseas factors dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Without obvious positive news, the possibility of the stock index breaking through upwards is low. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount: current - month contract 23.10%, next - month contract 15.22%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 5.91% [7] - IH premium/discount: current - month contract 22.37%, next - month contract 17.01%, current - quarter contract 7.18%, next - quarter contract 3.71% [7] - IC premium/discount: current - month contract 25.22%, next - month contract 18.22%, current - quarter contract 13.97%, next - quarter contract 11.48% [7] - IM premium/discount: current - month contract 28.37%, next - month contract 22.09%, current - quarter contract 17.95%, next - quarter contract 14.85% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has no prominent contradictions, with prices oscillating at low levels. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot-rolled coils and rebar are around the 20-day moving average on the surface, which is also the point range for re-entering hedging [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, coking coal auctions remain weak, but the lower support on the futures price is strong. Although the medium - and long - term bottom of coking coal has not been determined, short - term rebounds may continue due to capital games. There may be a short - term restocking market similar to that in March if the futures price continues to rise [6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets have fluctuating sentiment and enhanced price elasticity. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a trend of marginal increase in supply and a decline in costs. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - The iron ore market is mainly influenced by short - term news and sentiment. The downward trend remains unchanged, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in iron ore inventory and steel exports after the peak season [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - On June 10, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2970 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; HC2601 at 3085 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 at 663.5 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; J2601 at 1364.5 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; JM2601 at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; HC2510 at 3089 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2509 at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; J2509 at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; JM2509 at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [3]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of various varieties also showed corresponding changes on June 10 [3]. Spot Market - On June 10, the prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan/ton, and the prices of other spot products also had specific values and changes [3]. Market Analysis of Different Varieties - **Steel**: The spot trading is lackluster. There is no strong upward - driving force in the industry. The recent coal - coke market fluctuations are due to short - covering by short - sellers. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal auction is weak, with many unsuccessful auctions. The cost of coal for furnaces is decreasing, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The futures price of coking coal may continue to rebound in the short term, but the medium - and long - term bottom has not been determined [6]. - **Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon**: Supply has recovered, direct demand has weakened marginally, and cost support has declined. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed significantly. The downward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory and exports after the peak season [6]. Investment Suggestions - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [6]. - For coking coal and coke, be aware that the short - term rebound may not be over [6]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, participate through buying options due to the high price elasticity at low levels, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The spot market for shipping is showing signs of price increases in late June, and the futures market is experiencing upward fluctuations, especially in the near - month contracts. A 12 - 4 positive spread strategy is recommended to be held [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2240, up 8.09% from the previous value of 2073. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is currently 1155, a 3.34% increase from 1118. Other routes like SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show significant increases, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the highest increase of 29.62% from 1252 to 1623 [2]. 3.2 Forward Contracts (EC) - **Price and Position Changes**: For forward contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices show mixed trends. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1932.0, down 0.85% from 1948.6. In terms of positions, EC2508's position has increased by 1367 to 45494, while EC2506's position has decreased by 535 to 7268 [2]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6]. - **Export Data**: In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Exports to the US were 28.819 billion US dollars, a 34.5% year - on - year decrease with a larger decline than in April. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 14.8% and 12% respectively [6]. - **Sino - US Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9. Both sides expressed that the talks were going well, and the international community hopes that the talks can resolve differences and strengthen cooperation [7]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23508 US dollars/FEU, and the high - end (75th percentile) transaction price was 27000 US dollars/FEU. Although the Far - East to Nordic route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, market sentiment can push up freight rates due to potential capacity shortages [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upward. Near - month contracts (June and August) are more affected, with the August contract having greater elasticity, while more distant contracts follow fundamental logic [8][14].

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2023- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-08 2024-06 01 01 05 09 02 09 01 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 FDY现金流 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【 一 国贸 期货 | | | | | 技资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/6/11 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/10 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4830 | 4855 | 25.00 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4382 | 4376 | (6.00) | 现货资讯: 短纤:涤纶短纤跌54至6358。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4602 | 4612 | 10. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格僵持运行,贸易商价格偏暖震 | | MEG收盘价 | 4256 | 4269 | 13.00 | 荡,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6575 | 0.00 | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 场价格在6360-6660现款现汇含税自提 ...

| 指标 | | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 大连 日照 | -51 -171 | -12 -32 | 2500 1000 500 | | | ------ 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 | | | - 23/24 - 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -91 | -12 | 1500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -151 | -32 | -500 | | | | | | | | | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 | | | 174 | | | | | 东莞 | -181 | -22 | | | | 18-6W | | | | | | 湛江 | -141 | -22 | 1000 | ------ 2019/20 | | ----- ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | 2025/6/11 | | | | 农产品研究中心 | | | 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年6月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年6月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5282 | -0. 26% | 0. 84% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6150 | 0. 00% | -0. 81% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5376 | -0. 33% | 1. 36% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5350 | 0. 00% | -0. 93% | | | SP2509 | 5284 | -0. 11% | 1. 19% | | 阔叶浆 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/6/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团自 | | 地区 | 2025/6/10 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6170 | 0 | 0 | 453 | 17 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5900 | 0 | -100 | 283 | 17 | | いで貨 | 云南 | 大理 | 5820 | -10 | -140 | 243 | 7 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6185 | 0 | 100 | 368 | 17 | | 数盘 | | SR09 | 5717 | -17 | SR09-01 | | -7 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5580 | -10 | | 137 | | | म्ब ...