Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Asphalt: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: A clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities (★★★) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, and short-term geopolitical factors have limited impact on price rebounds. It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy combination of high-level short positions and call options [2] - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the space for further compression of the high-low sulfur spread is limited. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of expanding the high-low sulfur spread on dips [3] - The asphalt futures continue to oscillate within a range, with the bottom support remaining and limited downside space [4] - The short-term price-to-oil ratio of LPG is expected to be strong, with good bottom support on the spot side. Attention should be paid to the peak-season stocking market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract falling 1.87%. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels more than expected due to a significant increase in exports, while the increase in middle distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut did not bring more-than-expected positive news [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, the main crude oil contract declined, and fuel oil futures also fell, with the decline of FU being relatively limited. Since the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline, and the continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The incremental consumption of marine fuel in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high-sulfur marine fuel sector [3] - The third batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas is only 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low-sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year-on-year. However, considering the still low quota utilization rate, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited [3] Asphalt - Crude oil continued to correct, and asphalt futures continued to oscillate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, with the decline slowing down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and spot prices in South China and Hebei have remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong, and the overall sentiment is bullish under strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks. In South China, imports have decreased due to the impact of typhoons. At the same time, the chemical profit margin remains good, and the high operating rate pattern can still be maintained. The short-term price-to-oil ratio is expected to be strong [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of crude oil prices remains bearish, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply disruptions. For precious metals, after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, they may enter a phase of consolidation. For various metals and non - metals, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and policy expectations. Financial products like stocks and bonds also show different trends under the influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut and other factors [2][3][47][48] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices fell overnight. US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected last week due to increased exports, while the increase in middle - distillate product inventories raised demand concerns. The Fed's 25bp interest - rate cut did not bring unexpected positive effects. The medium - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical factors may cause supply disruptions, but the rebound space is limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has been declining. The increasing start - up rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil. The third - batch export quota of low - sulfur fuel oil is 700,000 tons, lower than last year's 1 million tons, but the supply pressure is limited due to the low quota utilization rate. It is recommended to consider a strategy of buying the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils at low levels [21] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures continued to fluctuate within a range. Factory and social inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and the prices in South China and Hebei remained stable. There is still support at the bottom of the futures price [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected, and precious metals fluctuated weakly. The Fed's risk - management interest - rate cut was not dovish enough, and after the decline of the interest - rate cut trading, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated overnight, and long - position sentiment cooled after the Fed's interest - rate cut. Domestic social inventories decreased, and copper prices may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [4] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. Downstream start - up continued to increase seasonally, and the inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to be at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point yet. The current industrial driving force is not strong, and there is resistance at the March high [5] - **Zinc**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer level again. The supply of zinc mines is increasing globally, and the general direction of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged. Focus on the changes in LME zinc inventories [8] - **Lead**: The supply of aluminum ingots was tight in the short term, and the fundamentals improved. However, after the rebound of lead prices, the profit of recycled aluminum was restored, and the expectation of the resumption of production of recycled aluminum smelters was strengthened. Pay attention to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton for the rebound of lead [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel declined after the interest - rate cut. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel iron decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and foreign tin prices broke through the previous trend support. Pay attention to the performance of the MA60 moving average in the short term. The inventory risk overseas has decreased. The adjustment of tin prices is conducive to inventory reduction. Wait and see [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium prices fluctuated weakly, and market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The futures price of lithium carbonate showed support at a low level, and the overall trend was weak after the interest - rate cut [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals is limited, and more positive factors are needed to break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures of polysilicon fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The industry's production schedule in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [13] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures continued to weaken, and market confidence was insufficient. The daily output continued to rise, and production enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand improved, and there was a phased replenishment expectation in the agricultural downstream. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply and demand, and the market fluctuated at a low level [23] - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol continued to fall. The import volume decreased temporarily, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down. The short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, but the high - inventory pressure persists, and the boost to the market is limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions in the long term [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene returned to the 6,000 - yuan/ton level and fluctuated at a low level overnight. The weekly output increased slightly. The supply - demand situation in the domestic pure benzene market may improve in the third quarter, but the high - import volume expectation suppresses market sentiment [25] - **Styrene**: The Fed's interest - rate cut had limited impact on the market. There was an unexpected reduction in supply recently, but the demand entered a dull period. It is expected that northern enterprises may have low - price promotions before the National Day, which will suppress prices [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The demand for propylene improved, and the price was supported. The supply of polyethylene increased in demand due to the rise in downstream factory start - up rates, and the supply decreased due to more domestic maintenance enterprises. The improvement of the polypropylene supply - demand fundamentals is limited [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC was in a weak operation with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The performance of caustic soda varied by region. The futures price of caustic soda may fluctuate [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA followed the decline in oil prices and external sentiment. The demand for PTA continued to improve, but the inventory of polyester yarn was moderately high and the profit was poor. The valuation of PX/PTA may be dragged down by weak macro - demand [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by new - device expectations and weak external sentiment, ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected port arrival volume increased slightly. Pay attention to the commissioning of new devices [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the soybean meal futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view on soybean meal [35] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of US soybean oil declined. The long - term trend of soybean and palm oil is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices continued to fall. The supply bottleneck of domestic rapeseed products still supports prices, but the change in import expectations will put pressure on prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans stopped falling and entered a sideways shock. The expected opening price of new - crop soybeans is low. Pay attention to the confirmation of the positive expectation of trade relations and the policy guidance of new - crop soybeans [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low overnight. Spot prices in different regions showed differentiation. Pay attention to the operation of Dalian corn before and after the new - grain opening price and the possible policy guidance [39] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs continued to fall and hit a new low this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish thinking should be maintained after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [40] - **Eggs**: The egg futures reduced positions significantly, with the near - term contract being weaker than the far - term contract. The spot price began to correct. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - term contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - term contracts [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The weekly signing data of US cotton was good. The domestic cotton spot sales were poor. The Xinjiang cotton production is likely to be a bumper harvest. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still oscillating [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated overnight. The domestic sugar sales were fast, and the inventory pressure was light. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season increased. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43] - **Apples**: The futures price of apples fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, but the supply - side lacked positive drivers. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term [44] - **Timber**: The futures price of timber fluctuated. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand during the off - season was good with smooth inventory reduction. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fell slightly. The port inventory in China increased, and the supply was relatively loose. The demand was average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within the range [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market fell yesterday, and the stock - index futures contracts all closed down. A shares may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillating upward trend in the short term. It is advisable to allocate more to the technology - growth sector in the medium term and consider allocating to the cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market is waiting for the next interest - rate cut opportunity. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The frequent price cuts of shipping companies reflect the high pressure of cargo collection at the end of the month. The freight rate center is expected to move down further, and the October contract may fall below 1100 points. The spot weakness will suppress the sentiment of far - month contracts [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has a complex situation with mixed demand and supply factors, and the market is affected by macro - policies and 'anti - involution' [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to supply - demand balance and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by cost expectations from policies such as anti - involution and coal production inspections, and there are opportunities for callback buying [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have good demand, but their price highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to 'anti - involution' information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel recovered, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. The demand for hot - rolled coil declined, production continued to rise, and inventory re - accumulated [1] - High - furnace production has recovered rapidly, and hot - metal production remains high, but poor steel profits limit further production increases. Pay attention to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [1] - In August, real - estate investment declined more, infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowed, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, market optimism cooled, but the 'anti - involution' policy provided support to the futures [1] Iron Ore - Today, the iron - ore futures fluctuated. Globally, shipments are at a high level, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory is stable with no significant short - term pressure to accumulate [2] - Terminal demand is relatively weak, but hot - metal production is high again. Steel mills need to replenish inventory before the holidays, so short - term demand for iron ore is supported [2] - The market expects macro - policies, and the 'anti - involution' policy still affects the futures. The Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations. Short - term iron - ore futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] Coke - Coke prices declined today. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but some coking plants proposed a first - round price increase due to low profits, intensifying the game [3] - Coke inventory increased, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The market expects coal production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, which are expected to increase coke costs. Coke prices mainly follow coking - coal prices [3] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium, and prices are greatly affected by 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3] Coking Coal - Coking - coal prices declined today. Due to high expectations of production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, prices are relatively strong [5] - Coking - coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and prices followed the futures down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total inventory increased [5] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium. Against the background of policy expectations, buying on callbacks is recommended [5] Silicon Manganese - Today, silicon - manganese prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [6] - Silicon - manganese weekly production continued to increase, reaching a high level. Inventory did not increase, and both spot and futures demand was good [6] - Manganese - ore forward quotes increased slightly, and spot prices were boosted. Manganese - ore inventory increased slowly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [6] Ferrosilicon - Today, ferrosilicon prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. Magnesium - metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand decreased marginally. Overall demand was okay [7] - Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, market demand for both spot and futures was good, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [7]

隔夜国际油价回落,SC11合约日内跌1.6%。上周美国原油库存受出口大增影响超预期下降928.5万桶,而中质馏分 产品的库存增加则引发市场对需求的担忧,美联储降息25bp亦未构成超预期利好。原油价格中期偏空趋势不变, 短期地缘因素或对供应有阶段性犹动,但反弹空间愈发受限,继续关注高位空单与看涨期权相结合的策略组合。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 | 国投票报 | | 能源日报 2025年09月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 今日燃油系期货均跟随原油回调。俄罗斯炼厂频繁遇袭以来俄罗斯燃料油周度装船量持续回落 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Apple: Bearish (★☆☆) [1] - Timber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Natural Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and suggesting corresponding trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined significantly, with most cotton spot prices stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There are concerns about possible over - pre - sale and potential price hikes from ginneries, but the impact is expected to be manageable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macro factors like Sino - US trade talks and Fed rate cuts are also under consideration. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, but the sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, suggesting potential high sugar - making ratios next year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. Domestic sugar sales are fast, with lower inventory and less pressure. The market focus is on imports and next - season's output, and the impact of weather on the 25/26 season's output is uncertain [3] Apple - Apple futures are oscillating. Early - maturing apples have good demand, but the supply of late - maturing apples in the 25/26 season is expected to be stable, and there is a high expectation of increased cold - storage inventory. It is expected that the futures price will decline in the short term, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, commodity futures prices fell. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operation rate decreased last week. Chinese tire production and export data show a mixed performance, with overall market conditions being okay. Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao declined, while butadiene rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see due to approaching holidays and low risk - appetite [5] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly, with stable spot prices. Chinese pulp port inventory is high year - on - year, and the August import volume decreased. Domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and PPI shows marginal improvement. Pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Timber futures are oscillating, with stable spot prices. Last week's timber arrival volume decreased, and the New Zealand radiata pine price dropped in September. Domestic importers are less willing to import due to high foreign prices. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. Inventory is low, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but there is limited short - term upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyethylene price is expected to rise due to the support from the demand side, but the price rebound may be limited because of the continuous pressure from the supply side [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. New Capacity Continues to Be Released, and Domestic Production Increases Significantly - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the concentration of new ethylene cracking device launches was high, increasing the supply pressure of domestic production, and the expansion was mainly in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition [1]. - As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025, and the total planned production capacity for the year is 663 million tons [1][2]. - From January to August, the maintenance loss of polyethylene in China was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The polyethylene production was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2 [4]. - There are still multiple device launches planned for the later period, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited pressure on linear polyethylene launches, and most launches are concentrated at the end of the year. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from H1, and the production release in H1 still poses a significant threat to H2 [4]. 2. Demand in the Traditional Peak Season Remains to Be Released, and the Room for Improving the Supply - Demand Contradiction May Be Limited - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has further declined year - on - year this year, and insufficient demand support has been a persistent problem. During the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the demand of most downstream product industries has increased, but overall it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand has further increased, and the industry is in a full - production peak season. The operating rate is expected to increase by 20 percentage points and reach its peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders have been released intensively, and the inventory preparation expectation has increased. Some export enterprises have seen an improvement in order - taking [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the traditional off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of the municipal infrastructure and real estate industries is insufficient, restricting market recovery. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint The price of polyethylene has an upward expectation due to the support from the demand - side, especially with the arrival of consumption seasons. However, the supply - side pressure from the continuous release of new production capacity is hard to relieve, so the price rebound height is expected to be limited. Technically, the plastic main contract faces obvious pressure at the gap on the K - line chart, and it's difficult for the price to break through the levels of 7450 and 7650 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 New Production Capacity and Output Growth - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the new ethylene cracking device investment is highly concentrated, increasing the domestic supply pressure, especially in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition. As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025 [1]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's polyethylene maintenance loss was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The output was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%. The industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2. More devices are planned to be put into production later, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited linear production pressure, and most are scheduled for the end of the year [4]. - Multiple companies have new polyethylene device investment plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 663 million tons. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from the first half of the year, and the output release in H1 still affects H2 [2]. 3.2 Demand in Traditional Peak Season - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has been lower year - on - year, and demand support has been insufficient. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the demand of most downstream products industries has increased, but it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand is increasing, and the industry is in the peak production season. The operating rate will gradually reach the annual high, with a 20 - point increase space, and the demand will peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders are concentratedly released. Export orders for some products are increasing, and the demand for rigid products is expected to rise [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of relevant industries is insufficient, and the demand recovery amplitude may be limited. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ (White stars indicate a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ (Two stars represent a clear bullish/bearish stance, with an obvious upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ (Same as above) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, but exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market optimism has cooled. The steel trading floor has support below, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by cost expectations and "anti-involution," and it's advisable to consider buying on dips. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices follow the rebound of the black series, but their highs are restricted by fundamentals [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Today's trading floor declined. Rebar demand improved, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot-rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. High iron water restricts further production resumption space, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is less optimistic, but the trading floor has support [1] Iron Ore - Today's trading floor fluctuated. Supply is at a high level, with a slight decline in domestic arrivals. Port inventory is stable, and there is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory. Terminal demand is weak, but high iron water production and pre-holiday restocking needs support demand. The market expects macro policies, and "anti-involution" affects the trading floor. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The price declined during the day. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but due to low profits, some coking plants proposed a first-round price increase. Inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing intention is average. Cost expectations and "anti-involution" affect prices, and it's advisable to consider buying on dips [3] Coking Coal - The price declined during the day. High expectations of overproduction checks and "anti-involution" make the price relatively strong. Mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total inventory increased, and short-term production disruptions had little impact on inventory. It's advisable to consider buying on dips [5] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and production increased to a high level. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory accumulated slowly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [6] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and export demand remained stable. Metal magnesium production declined slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply recovered to a high level, and inventory decreased slightly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. The overall market is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand fluctuations, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts opened high and closed low. Propylene demand improved as prices hit a low, but supply increased. Some companies raised prices due to better sales [2] - Polyolefin futures contracts declined. Polyethylene demand increased with higher downstream开工率, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance. Polypropylene supply may decrease slightly, but downstream procurement was restricted by low profits [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene dropped. Although new production was added,开工率 decreased slightly. The domestic pure benzene market may improve in Q3, but high import expectations dampened sentiment [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. There were unplanned supply reductions, but demand entered a dull period. Northern companies may have price promotions before the National Day [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened. PTA price was driven by raw materials. Terminal demand improved, but filament inventory was high and profit was poor [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory was low [5] - Short - fiber prices fell. New capacity was limited this year, and demand in the peak season was expected to boost the industry. Bottle - chip basis and processing margin rebounded, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol contracts declined. Import arrivals decreased, and short - term supply - demand gap was expected to narrow. High inventory persisted, and long - term attention was on overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea prices weakened. Supply was sufficient, and industrial demand improved. Agricultural demand had a phased replenishment expectation. Domestic urea remained in a loose supply - demand situation [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was weak. Supply pressure was high, and cost support was not obvious. Attention was on pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differences. Overall inventory was small, and prices were expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices dropped. Production remained high, and heavy - soda demand increased slightly but slowed recently. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment in the short - term and face over - supply in the long - term [8] - Glass prices fell. Inventory decreased, capacity increased slightly, and processing orders improved. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment at a low - valuation level [8]