Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified with a clear rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Styrene: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Propylene: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PVC: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - PX: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - PTA: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the rating description but implies a certain upward - biased trend [1] - Glass: ★★★, representing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][9] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market [1][9] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, meaning there is a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability on the market is not strong [1][9] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose in some sectors, while demand varies by product. Some products are in a seasonal demand slump, and the market support from the supply - demand fundamentals is relatively weak. However, some products have positive factors such as inventory reduction and strong raw material expectations, which bring upward impetus [2][3][5] - For different chemical products, different investment strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, cost changes, and market trends, including short - term and medium - long - term strategies [3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. The overall supply was relatively loose, but the low - price transactions improved, and the production enterprises' willingness to stabilize the market was prominent [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of polyethylene remained at a high level for a long time, and the downstream demand decreased. The polypropylene was in the seasonal demand off - season, and the demand release was limited in the short term [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The unified benzene futures price fluctuated at a low level during the day. The port inventory continued to rise, but there were expectations of device maintenance and downstream load increase in the future, and the supply was expected to increase. In the medium - term, considering the de - stocking expectation in the first half of next year, it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the monthly difference at a low price [3] - The styrene futures main contract continued to rise during the day, breaking through the upper limit of the previous consolidation range. Driven by the strength of aromatics and export negotiations, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price support of styrene became stronger [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectation continued to drive the price up, and PTA increased its positions and followed the rise. In the short term, PX supply was expected to increase, and PTA was expected to maintain a low - load de - stocking state. The upward drive mainly came from raw material PX. In the medium - term, a long - position strategy was recommended [5] - The ethylene glycol price fluctuated mainly. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester had a load - reduction expectation, but the decrease in arrival volume and device maintenance alleviated the inventory - accumulation pressure. In the long - term, it was still under pressure due to large - scale device production [5] - The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuated with raw materials. In the demand off - season, the basis and processing margin weakened. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern was relatively good. The bottle - chip demand declined, and the spot processing margin was better than the futures, but the overall situation was still not ideal, with over - capacity being the long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures fluctuated within a range. The port inventory increased significantly due to the recovery of import unloading speed and weakening of inland demand. In the short term, the inventory was high, and the market might fluctuate weakly within the range. In the long - term, there was an upward driving force, and it was advisable to enter the positive spread of the 5 - 9 monthly difference at a low price [6] - The urea futures fluctuated strongly. The production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly, and the market sentiment promoted good transactions. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the daily output decreased, and the reserve demand continued to advance. The short - term supply - demand gap tightened, and the market fluctuated strongly [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The start - up rate decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and the supply pressure was expected to ease in 2026. The downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to operate in a low - level range [7] - Caustic soda showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed, which supported the price of liquid caustic soda. The downstream replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory pressure was still high. The supply pressure was large, and the expected upward range was limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The weekly output decreased slightly but was still above 700,000 tons, and there was new production capacity release in the future. The inventory continued to decrease, and the demand was mainly for downstream replenishment. In the long - term, it faced the pressure of supply - demand surplus, and a high - selling strategy was recommended. A long - glass and short - soda ash 05 strategy could be considered at a low level [8] - Glass showed a fluctuating and upward - biased trend. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the spot market was average. The production capacity decreased slightly, and the profit was compressed. The processing orders were sluggish, and the demand was insufficient. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needed to reduce production capacity to achieve balance [8]

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月26日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ななな | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | 20号胶 ★★★ 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，商品整体偏强，棉花也加速上涨，基本面暂无新的变化,逻辑仍以前期为主。棉花现货主流销售甚差总体 持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但 需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内 商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]

Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coils recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory reduction accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand during the off-season [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Weekly Data - **Rebar**: Weekly production was 39.184 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.71%; factory inventory was 14.006 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.52%; social inventory was 29.419 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.81%; total inventory (factory + social) was 43.425 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.29%; weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 20.268 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.96% [1] - **Wire Rod**: Weekly production was 774,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 43.32%; factory inventory was 805,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 72.33%; social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10.60%; total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13.50% [1] - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: Weekly production was 1.63 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.90%; factory inventory was 3.0704 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.76% [1] - **Cold-Rolled Coil**: Weekly production was 864,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%; factory inventory was 392,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.69%; social inventory was 1.2425 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88%; total inventory was 1.6348 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.19% [1] - **Medium Plate**: Weekly production was 823,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.50%; factory inventory was 1.1372 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.30%; social inventory was 1.5978 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.02% [1] - **Total of Five Varieties**: Weekly production was 8.7256 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.15%; total inventory was 12.5799 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.67% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory continued to be depleted. The demand for hot-rolled coils recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory depletion accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand during the off-season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production, Inventory, and Consumption Data**: - For all five major steel products combined, the weekly production was 872.56 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.15 million tons. The total inventory (factory + social) was 1257.99 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption (excluding imports and exports) was 833.61 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.11 million tons [1]. - Rebar: The weekly production was 39.29 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.71 million tons. The factory inventory was 140.06 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.52 million tons. The social inventory was 294.19 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.81 million tons. The total inventory was 434.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 18.29 million tons. The weekly consumption was 202.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.96 million tons [1]. - Wire rod: The weekly production was 77.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.32 million tons. The factory inventory was 80.52 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.16 million tons. The social inventory was 296.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.60 million tons. The total inventory was 377.22 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 13.50 million tons. The weekly consumption was 43.7 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.42 million tons [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: The weekly production was 307.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8.76 million tons. The factory inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The social inventory was 196.02 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.80 million tons. The total inventory was 359.50 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.61 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Cold-rolled coil: The weekly production was 86.48 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.39 million tons. The factory inventory was 39.23 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.69 million tons. The social inventory was 124.25 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons. The total inventory was 163.48 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.19 million tons. The weekly consumption was 86.67 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 million tons [1]. - Medium plate: The weekly production was 82.3 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons. The factory inventory was 113.72 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 million tons. The social inventory was 159.78 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.02 million tons. The total inventory was 273.50 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.72 million tons. The weekly consumption was 79.68 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.88 million tons [1].

燃料油方面当前市场交易逻辑仍主要围绕供应端展开:乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港口及海上物流导致年末出口减量, 委内瑞拉出口受阻对重质原油供应构成潜在干扰,短期内地缘因素仍将对价格形成一定支撑。但陆上库存及海 上浮仓均处于高位且继续累积,中期来看供应宽松仍是主要逻辑。疏燃料油方面,近期供应呈现增加趋势;丹 格特RFCC装置已进入检修,而阿祖尔CDU装置计划在年底前重启,两者均将带来边际供应增量。在此压力下，低 硫燃料油预计将延续弱势运行格局。据悉2026年第一批成品油1900万吨和低硫燃料油800万吨出口配额下发，规 模与2025年首批配额水平一致。 【沥青】 | 模 S = | | --- | | 4 72 15 | | 25 | | 1 1 | | . | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月25日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.c ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold, silver, and palladium are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recent Fed easing prospects and geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Israel, and other regions have supported the strength of precious metals, with each variety hitting new highs and forming a resonant breakthrough [1] - After the short - term sharp rise, market volatility will increase during the Christmas holiday when the overseas market is closed, so attention should be paid to position control [1] - In 2026, platinum is expected to remain in short supply, and the supply gap of palladium will narrow significantly. The supply side of both is fragile. With a long time until delivery, funds are actively bullish on the future price of platinum, and the price difference between platinum and palladium exceeds 130 yuan/gram [2] - In the bull market cycle of precious metals, funds have strong control, and the mid - line strategy is to increase positions on dips. The implied volatility (IV) of platinum and palladium options continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Geopolitical and Policy News - US officials suggest they prefer sanctions over military action against Venezuela [3] - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved, and Russia wants to modify the US proposal [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggests a possible further interest rate hike next year and expresses increasing confidence in achieving the sustainable price target [3] Market Performance - The preparation for the delivery of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is progressing smoothly. The overnight overseas palladium price plunged, and panic spread. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened lower with a gap. Palladium fluctuated weakly near the daily limit, while platinum opened low and closed higher, with strong long - short competition among funds [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing investment ratings and operational suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory factors of each commodity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, with stable overall spot sales. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand remained stable in the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing reached 648.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 82.0 million tons. As of December 15, commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished product inventory was not high. Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong upward trend, and industries could consider hedging opportunities, with a strategy of buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, after the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which might lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year. However, rainfall increased in December. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. In November, Guangxi's sugar production progress was slow, and the output decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limited the rebound of sugar prices. In the long term, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods for the market and bought less from fruit farmers. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The de - stocking volume was 70,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers might affect the de - stocking speed. Currently, demand was in the off - season, and the overall demand decreased. The reluctance to sell also affected the sales speed, increasing the bearish sentiment in the market. The operation strategy was to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose, while the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) fell. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the external butadiene port price rose, and the Thai raw material market price mostly fell. Globally, natural rubber supply was entering the low - production period, with Yunnan and Hainan in China and Vietnam gradually stopping production. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 515,200 tons, while the domestic butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 433,000 tons. The strategy was to expect a rebound in RU&NR and to wait and see for BR [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp prices fell today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space was restricted. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of major Chinese paper pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of paper pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supported softwood pulp, and the external quotes of both increased recently. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for刚需, and the increase in raw paper prices was relatively weak. The paper pulp market was highly competitive. The operation strategy was to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. The external quote decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Although it was the off - season, the average daily outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters, indicating fair demand. As of December 19, the total port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The low inventory supported the price, and the operation strategy was to wait and see [7]