Report Core View - Traditional factors in the current market, such as volume-price factors based on trading volume and price data and fundamental factors based on economic data, are facing the risk of invalidation. In the context of high strategy crowding and over - mining of big data, alternative factors are becoming new important aids for describing price expectations. The report focuses on sentiment factors with a wide range of applications, which can not only depict the current market heat and sentiment but also quantitatively grasp the strength and weakness of sectors and varieties by refining, processing and analyzing text information such as news, media and research reports [1] Other Key Points - The formula for the emotional intensity in the futures market is the sum of the correlation degree between news/reports and futures varieties multiplied by the emotional score of news/reports [2]

Report's Investment Ratings for Different Metals - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as holding certain option strategies, participating in hedging, and being cautious in trading [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper market reduced positions and fluctuated, recovering intraday losses. The impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs on copper is limited. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum increased positions and rose. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed. The short - term rise is driven by funds, deviating from the fundamentals. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum plants can consider selling hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is light. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of pre - consuming, and the demand may not be weak in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - The SMM 1 aluminum has a discount to the near - month contract. The import window is open, and the overseas surplus can be transmitted to the domestic market. The recycled aluminum production has increased after profit repair. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has improved. The stainless steel inventory has decreased. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions and traded around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot price has support at the integer - level high. The option strategy of selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be held until maturity [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has slightly improved. The price center is slowly rising, and the mine - end price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and closed slightly down. The supply side has production cuts, and the demand side has reduced demand. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after the limit - down. The market's expectation for capacity clearance has changed. The supply is still high, and the price is seeking cost support [11]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Chemical Products - **Positive Outlook (Red Stars)**: Methanol, Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Propylene are rated ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities; Urea, PVC, and Soda Ash are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - **Negative Outlook (Green Stars)**: There are no products with a green - star rating in the report. - **Balanced Outlook (White Stars)**: Polypropylene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Glass, and Caustic Soda are rated ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The chemical market shows a mixed performance. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, cost factors, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends in price, production, and inventory [2][3][5]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some products, such as far - month pure benzene, consider long - short spreads; for soda ash, use a right - side short - selling strategy; hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy; for glass, look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [3][8]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract rose slightly. Production enterprises had smooth sales, and multiple plants planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance, boosting market sentiment [2]. - **Polyethylene**: Market sentiment was strong, downstream factories replenished stocks, and production enterprises raised factory prices. The market price trended upward, and low - price transactions were acceptable [2]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply was tight, and some petrochemical factory prices were high, leading to a price - support intention. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, and trading volume decreased [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price in East China was stable. Hydro - benzene production increased, imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. The industry profit improved, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to rise. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate, and consider long - short spreads for far - month contracts [3]. - **Styrene**: The main futures contract rose but was pressured by the semi - annual line. Production enterprises had stable sales, inventory decreased, but the accumulation of raw material pure benzene suppressed the price rebound [3]. 3.3 Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices declined. The terminal market weakened, polyester cash flow was low, and production started to decline. The overnight oil price increase slightly boosted the market. PX was expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin moderately recovered [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New domestic plants were about to start production, and overseas plants shut down due to low profitability. Polyester production was expected to decrease, port inventory continued to accumulate, and it will fluctuate at a low level around the Spring Festival. Supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but it will face long - term pressure [5]. - **Short - fiber**: Enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Profits were thin, and downstream factories would gradually take holidays after mid - January. The price fluctuated with raw materials, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [5]. - **Bottle chips**: Demand weakened, downstream buyers restocked as needed, the spot price was slightly lower, and the price followed raw materials. Before the Spring Festival, production and demand will decline, and over - capacity will be a long - term pressure [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemicals - **Methanol**: The trading floor saw intensified long - short battles. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and future imports were expected to decrease significantly. However, high coastal inventory and downstream negative feedback may suppress the market [6]. - **Urea**: The price slightly declined, and enterprise inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Gas - based plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for immediate use. The daily output was expected to increase, but the decline space was limited due to the upcoming spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: The price declined. Maintenance decreased, production increased, downstream demand was weak, and exports were mainly from ethylene - based enterprises. The calcium carbide price increase provided cost support, and the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuated. The chlorine market was good, integrated profits were acceptable, and production was at a high level. Downstream alumina production was high, but the industry was generally in the red. Liquid caustic soda inventory continued to accumulate, and the alumina production cut expectation will suppress the price rebound [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: The price was weakly fluctuating. Supply pressure was high as production increased. Recent trading was mainly by futures - cash arbitrageurs, and downstream buying sentiment was low. Float and photovoltaic glass industries continued to cut capacity, and soda ash inventory continued to accumulate, facing oversupply. Consider short - selling on the right - side and hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The price fell from a high level. The spot market continued to destock, and prices varied by region. All three fuel - based production lines were in the red, and production capacity was compressed to 150,000 tons. Processing orders were weak, and demand was insufficient. After the capacity drops below 150,000 tons, supply - demand will reach a weak balance, and look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: Soybean, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product futures market shows a mixed trend, with different varieties affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions [2][3][4] - For most varieties, short - term market trends need to be continuously monitored, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures is in an adjustment state at a high level, and the spot price of domestic soybeans is rising. Jilin Province will conduct a competitive auction of trade grains in mid - January [2] - South American new - season soybeans maintain the annual production forecast, and the supply - side risk is low. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and market guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the January supply - demand report next Tuesday. Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.229 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will be 292 million bushels [3] - The US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2025 is expected to be 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase year - on - year. South American soybean production is expected to rise slightly [3] - If the South American weather does not change significantly, the soybean meal price will follow the US soybean price and fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are continuing to rebound. Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy [4] - The Malaysian palm oil market is at risk of further inventory accumulation. The overseas soybean supply - side risk is low, and the palm oil inventory pressure in Malaysia is expected to continue. The market is expected to be volatile [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products show a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil rises due to the increase in international crude oil prices, while rapeseed meal is pressured by the expectation of improved China - Canada economic and trade relations [6] - The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week. It is expected that the market will be in a weak and volatile state [6] Corn - Corn futures are oscillating at a high level. The spot price in Northeast China has risen slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price [7] - The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn has a high transaction rate and premium. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are continuing to oscillate, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is still high, but the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low [8] - There may be an accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the supply pressure is large. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is stable. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the egg - laying hen inventory will decline rapidly from January 2026 [9] - With pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take a long position in the first - half - year contracts of 2026 or adopt a long - near and short - far strategy [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is concerned about the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's reciprocal tariffs, but the impact on copper is limited. The focus is on the US December non - farm employment indicators at night [2]. - Short - term funds are boosting Shanghai Aluminum to hit a record high, with a certain deviation from the fundamentals. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and its spot price is under pressure [3]. - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the demand may be "not off - season in the off - season" in 2026. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure at 17,800 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The stainless steel market is affected by policies, and the social inventory is accelerating to be depleted. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. - Shanghai Tin is in a position of increasing positions and gaming at the 350,000 - yuan mark. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level, with strong resilience. The price center is slowly and continuously rising [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in the northwest [10]. - Polysilicon prices are seeking cost support due to policy changes, and participation should be cautious [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai Copper reduced positions and oscillated, recovering losses during the session. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum increased positions and rose. Spot discounts in some regions narrowed, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and it is in significant surplus. The alumina spot price is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. Aluminum - SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The import window is still open. The recycled aluminum profit has recovered, and the refined - scrap price difference is 150 yuan/ton. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is still light. SMM zinc inventory has risen to 118,500 tons. In 2026, the consumption is expected to be moderately advanced. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel oscillated with active trading. The upstream price has started to rebound. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. Tin - Shanghai Tin increased positions and played around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot tin price dropped to 349,750 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,390 yuan to the delivery month. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream has a mentality of hoarding goods, and the downstream has a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The price center is slowly rising, and the market inventory has increased in the first week [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and went high, closing slightly down. There is a technical rebound, and there is news of enterprise production cuts. The supply side shows reduced production by large factories in Xinjiang, and low - level operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The demand side has a decrease in raw material demand from polysilicon and organic silicon. It is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after hitting the daily limit yesterday, with continuous capital outflows. The market expectation has changed, and the price is seeking cost support. Participation should be cautious [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides analyses and operation suggestions for various soft commodities, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market conditions such as supply - demand changes, production progress, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct, with the position of the main contract decreasing. Spot sales were average, and the basis was stable. As of the end of December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 110.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.96 million tons. Sales progress was fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, demand was generally stable. As of December 25th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang was implemented, but the reduction data was lower than market expectations. Spinning mills still had demand for raw materials, with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the short - term focus was on the production expectation difference in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress was fast, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, while Thailand's production progress was slow and the output was lower than expected. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. In December, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons; sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 1.0571 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62,100 tons. The sales volume decreased significantly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the production progress was slow. If the output cannot increase later, the futures price will repair upwards. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking price of some soft semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and purchased less from farmers. As merchants started to stock up for the Spring Festival, the cold - storage trading volume increased. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 287,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the sentiment of hoarding among traders and farmers was strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all decreased. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand varied. Globally, the natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan about to fully stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, with the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, the finished - product inventory of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tires continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 548,300 tons, with both the bonded area and general trade inventory increasing; the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In general, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is stable, and market sentiment is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp price increased slightly. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,500 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 billion tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory - accumulation trend. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support to coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas quotes of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have both increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the price of base paper has relatively weak follow - up increases. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable. In terms of supply, the overseas quote decreased, and the domestic spot price remained weak, with the short - term arrival volume expected to decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports across the country was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. As of January 2nd, the total log inventory at ports across the country was 2.67 billion cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory was relatively low, with relatively low inventory pressure. Overall, the low inventory provided some support to the price. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] Core View - Overnight precious metals first declined and then rebounded, with the downward trend easing. The weekly initial jobless claims in the US stood at 208,000, remaining at a low level. Geopolitical turmoil persists globally at the beginning of the year, and market sentiment drives significant price fluctuations. The impact of the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index is not sustainable. After a high - level consolidation, precious metals are still expected to test previous high resistance. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Attention should be focused on the US non - farm payrolls data tonight [1] Other Summaries Fed - related - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 150 basis points in 2026. Trump claims to have decided on the next Fed chair nominee. Bessent urges the Fed to cut rates further and expects Trump to announce the nominee this month [2] Venezuela Situation - related - The US Energy Secretary says Venezuela's oil production may increase by 50% in 18 months. The US Senate seeks to limit Trump's actions against Venezuela, and Trump threatens five "defecting" Republicans. US media reports that Trump is planning to control Venezuela's state - owned oil company with the goal of pushing oil prices down to $50 per barrel. Venezuela reaffirms its commitment to deepening economic and trade agreements with China [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak domestic demand and high exports. The market sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] - The coking market's fifth - round price cut is on hold. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement volume next week [4] - The coking coal market has an abundant supply of carbon elements. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6] - The silicon manganese market has a structural problem in port inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies. The demand is still resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly rebounds, and inventory begins to accumulate. The hot - roll demand declines, production slightly rebounds, and inventory is slowly depleted with pressure to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, blast furnaces are gradually restarted, and hot - metal production rebounds in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed [2] - Real estate investment decline continues to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to fall, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high [2] - The market's optimistic sentiment cools, the trading floor is under pressure to fall back, and it is mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments decline seasonally, domestic arrivals remain high, port inventory rises significantly this week, and the number of stranded ships increases [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, steel mill profitability declines, hot - metal production increases but there is no obvious restart in the short term [3] - Steel mill imported ore inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level, and there is still a certain expectation of winter storage replenishment [3] - The commodity market sentiment is volatile, and the iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively loose, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. The fifth - round price cut is on hold, coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Coke inventory hardly changes, and attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume increases next week [4] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [4] - The coke trading floor has a premium, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles [6] - Coking coal mine production slightly decreases, and the mine restart situation is good after the New Year's Day [6] - Spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price rises slightly driven by the trading floor price increase, and terminal inventory slightly increases [6] - Total coking coal inventory increases significantly, and production - end inventory rises significantly [6] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [6] - The coking coal trading floor has a premium over Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [6] Silicon Manganese - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Driven by the trading floor rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises [7] - There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - Silicon manganese smelters pursue the most cost - effective option and change the manganese ore blending formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - Last week, the manganese ore spot transaction price rose. On the demand side, hot - metal production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production slightly decreases, and silicon manganese inventory slightly decreases [7] - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [8] - The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increases, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices [8] - On the demand side, hot - metal production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - Metal magnesium production increases month - on - month, secondary demand increases marginally, and overall demand is still resilient [8] - Ferrosilicon supply drops significantly, inventory slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8] - It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the start of 2026, egg spot prices have shown signs of strengthening, and they are expected to gradually gain upward momentum from January [2] - Due to continuous losses in chicken farming in 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicken seedlings in the second half of the year reversed compared to the first half, leading to a significant decline in the pressure of newly - opened laying hens in the first half of 2026 [5][8] - With supply shrinking and demand increasing during the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, spot prices are expected to start rising [12] - In the first half of 2026, a long - position thinking should be maintained for egg futures, with strategies such as buying on dips for futures contracts in the first half of 2026 or adopting a long - near - short - far strategy [15] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chicken Farming Profit - In 2025, the egg - chicken farming industry almost suffered losses throughout the year, with only small profits during the egg - price rebounds at the beginning of the year and in September [5] Chicken Seedling Replenishment - Since July 2025, the sample chicken - seedling replenishment volume (accounting for 50% of the actual replenishment) has been declining year - on - year, with the decline rate increasing monthly in the second half of the year. The year - on - year decline rates of single - month sales from August to December were 9.4%, 14.1%, 12.7%, 13.4%, and 13.9% respectively [8] In - production Laying Hen Inventory - It is estimated that from January to May 2026, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain at a low level, and the in - production inventory in the industry is expected to gradually decrease [8] - The data shows the in - production laying hen inventory, newly - opened hens, hens to be culled, and their ratios from December to May, with the newly - opened hens being about 10% less than the hens to be culled each month from January to May [10] Demand - During the period from after New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, both the procurement demand of food factories and the household procurement demand of residents are expected to increase due to festival demand [12] Strategy - In the first half of 2026, maintain a long - position thinking for egg futures, buy on dips for futures contracts in the first half of the year, or adopt a long - near - short - far strategy. Pay attention to the risk of basis convergence and the trading rhythm between expectations and reality [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is mainly driven by a loose supply - demand situation, with a downward trend in the central price. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, while low-sulfur fuel oil faces a supply - driven loose situation. The cost of asphalt is expected to rise due to supply shortages and high alternative costs. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The current crude oil market is in a pattern of inventory accumulation due to oversupply. In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure. The situation between the US and Venezuela is unlikely to provide sustainable fundamental support for oil price rebounds. If US sanctions on Venezuela are relaxed, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The recent strengthening of the cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors. The Venezuelan situation suppresses crude oil prices but supports high-sulfur fuel oil cracking. There are concerns about potential disruptions in heavy - product supply, which may increase the demand for fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production. Geopolitical uncertainties in high - sulfur resource regions continue to affect raw material and high - sulfur fuel oil supply expectations. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to face supply - driven loosening pressure and its fundamentals remain weak. [3] Asphalt - Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp drop in shipments to China. It is expected to significantly impact domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later, although January arrivals are still sufficient according to Kpler data. The current futures price has factored in the increase in premiums and is now in a sideways trend. If domestic refineries switch to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian crude as alternatives, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude supply and the rising cost of alternative raw materials are expected to drive up asphalt production costs. [4]