| | | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入淡季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格走势转弱。早熟苹果方面,新季早熟苹果开始陆续供应市场。目前主要上市品种为光景 晨阳,运城地区65#黑上市价格同比上涨0.2-0.3元/斤,贸易商看涨意愿较强,关注后期早熟苹果价格走势。从交易逻辑来看, 市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到案湖和花期大风的影响，但是低温对产量的影响不大，主要曾加了果锈 的风险。另一方面,今年产区整体花量较足,产量预估相对偏空,操作上维持偏空思路。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ...

今日盘面弱势震荡。螺纹表需环比有所回升，产量延续上升态势，库存继续缓慢下降。热卷需求温和回落，产量维持高位，库 在继续小幅累积。铁水产量有所回落，整体维持相对高位，负反馈担忧缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回 暖缺乏持续性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，制造业整体仍有韧性。 "反内卷"的实质性措施尚有 待落地，关税政策仍有不确定性，市场乐观情绪降温，盘面短期承压，关注终端需求及国内外相关政策变化。 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 签任 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜减仓收阴,周内关注2507合约建仓速度。国内消费淡季明显,SMM社库增加1.1万吨至14.29万吨，铜 ...

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落。上周美国6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率更是与预期反向下 降0.1个百分点至4.1%. 就业市场保持韧性令市场放弃七月降息押注。其他多项数据来看,ISM制造业 PMI49、职位空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平，周度初请失业金人数维持低位均体现经济并未显著走弱, 周内鲍威尔在活动中讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步行动将完全取决于数据 表现。在地缘风险阶段性降温，经济数据压制降息预期后，本周市场关注点转向即将于7月9日到期的美国对 等关税政策变化,周五特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴,设定新的单 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月07日 (原油) 上周油价有所反弹，布伦特09合约涨3.27%，SC08合约涨1%。0PEC+8月增产计划54.8万桶/天进 一步提速，快速增产路径叠加能源转型背景下的石油需求降速，原油市场中期供需宽松、库存累积 的压力依然存在；但三季度旺季宏观及地缘因素存在阶段性利多支撑，7月9日对等关税豁免到期大 限临近，最终博弈结果参考美越贸易协议或总体弱于4月2日最初版本，伊核问题相关的中东地缘风 险亦未彻底消除，我们预估油价运行区间或较二季度抬升，布伦特以63-70美元/桶为主、INE SC以 480-510元/桶为主，下行风险在旺季过后扔将释放。 【铜】 上周五铜价收跌，市场关注美国关税进展，不确定性大,美国将前期关税执行时间延至8月1日。本 周继续关注沪铜交割月减仓变动。技术上，上周沪铜阻力8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关注高位空 配。 【铝】 周五夜盘沪铝小幅回落,市场等待美国关税政策落地。上周铝市消费负反馈有所显现,铝锭铝棒小 幅累库，现货转向贴水，铝棒加工费维持极低水平。沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位体现市场分歧极 大,资金博弈 ...

| | | | Million | 国投前货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by supply - side reform expectations, with short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policy changes [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to follow the trend of finished products, showing a relatively strong oscillation in the short term [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure on the futures due to inventory, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact currently [4][6]. - The silicomanganese market has limited fundamental improvement, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. - The ferrosilicon market has a general driving force for continuous price rebound [8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures rose first and then fell. Thread demand recovered, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly, production remained high, and inventory accumulated slightly. Iron - making water production decreased but remained high. Concerns about negative feedback eased. The infrastructure recovery lacked sustainability, real - estate sales remained low, and the manufacturing industry had resilience. The supply - side reform expectations dominated the market, but substantial measures were yet to be implemented [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures oscillated, and the basis narrowed to a low level. Global iron ore shipments ended the end - of - season rush, with a downward expectation. Domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory was basically flat. Terminal demand in the off - season was resilient, steel mill profitability was okay, and iron - making water production declined from a high level. Supply - side contraction expectations strengthened, and market sentiment improved. The iron ore fundamentals had limited contradictions, and it was expected to follow the finished products with a relatively strong oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices rose today. Coking plants had price - increase expectations, with meager profits, and daily production declined. Coke inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a four - round premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Coking coal mine production increased, spot auction improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downward today. Due to previous production cuts, inventory decreased, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory increased. Manganese ore inventory was expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the current inventory was low, with stronger price - holding intentions of mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore were scarce, and the August 2025 shipment price to China decreased slightly. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, silicomanganese followed the upward trend of thread, but its fundamentals improved limitedly, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downward today. Iron - making water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production increased, and secondary demand remained high. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market transactions were average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, ferrosilicon followed the upward trend of thread, but the driving force for continuous price rebound was general [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Staple Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term market trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy news, showing different trends of narrow - range fluctuations, shock - strengthening, or high - pressure [2][3][4] - The long - term trends of some products are under pressure due to factors like supply increase and demand decline [8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a continuous shock adjustment, with the East China basis dropping significantly and port inventory accumulation expectations being gradually realized [2] - Domestic device operation rate is down, and the operation rates of traditional downstream industries in the inland are also decreasing, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory [2] - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to Iranian shipments and the operation of coastal olefin devices [2] Urea - The urea futures price first rose and then fell during the day, mainly driven by market rumors of the release of the second batch of export quotas [3] - After precipitation in the mainstream areas, downstream procurement was concentrated, and production enterprise inventory decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, the port inventory increased significantly [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but in the later period, as agricultural demand enters the off - season and supply remains sufficient, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures main contract continued to be narrowly sorted during the day, lacking short - term directional guidance [4] - The supply of polyethylene increased, while demand support was limited. The operation rate of the polypropylene device decreased, and downstream orders were insufficient, with the overall operation rate declining [4] Styrene - The styrene futures main contract rose slightly during the day, maintaining a sideways trend [6] - The cost - side support is insufficient, and there is obvious supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak and stable, with a possibility of a slight decrease [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and declined, and the industrial supply - demand pattern changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, basis, and spreads under pressure [7] - The import of ethylene glycol is uncertain, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock trend [7] - The prices of staple fiber and bottle chips followed the decline of raw materials. The operation rate of staple fiber increased, but downstream demand decreased. The bottle chip industry reduced production, and the spot processing margin was repaired [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a shock operation. There is an expected increase in supply in the future, while domestic demand is weak, and export orders may decline. In the long term, the futures price may be in a low - level shock [8] - Caustic soda is trending strongly. In the short term, it is driven by cost, but in the long term, it is under pressure due to supply increase [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices declined during the day. Although the sales in some areas improved and inventory decreased, processing orders were weak, and there is limited room for price increase [9] - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory, and the futures price was weak. With reduced demand and short - term supply contraction, it is difficult for the price to rise significantly [9]

| Million | 国投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金弱银强略有分化。美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百 分点至4.1%,就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温,报告公布后利率期货交易员放弃了对7月美 联储降息的押注,对九月份美联储降息的概率约为80%,低于非农就业报告公布前的98%。短期贵金属延续震 荡，关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。美国总统特朗普称将于周五开始向贸易伙伴发送关 税通知函单方面设定关税税率,相关国家须从8月1日起支付税款,关税税率将在10%-20%到60%-70%之间浮 动。" ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为 ...