Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price dropped nearly 2% overnight. The resumption of production in Iraq and the expected increase in Russian oil exports under a potential peace agreement in Ukraine may lead to a downward trend in oil prices in the medium to long term, with increased volatility in the short term due to the game between positive and negative news [1]. - Precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. With the U.S. economic data being mixed and the high probability of interest rate cuts priced in, attention is focused on Powell's statement at the Fed meeting. It is not advisable to chase high in the precious metal market before gold breaks through the previous resistance [1]. - The prices of various metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [1 - 45]. Summaries by Related Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped nearly 2%. Iraq restored production at the West Quran oil field, and the market expects increased Russian oil exports if a peace agreement is reached. There is a greater inventory accumulation expectation in Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices in the medium - long term remains [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals continued to oscillate at high levels. The probability of Fed rate cuts is over 80%. Gold should not be chased high before breaking through the previous resistance [1]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated at high levels. There is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause this week. If the Fed cuts rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the high - priced copper may correct. Long positions can be held along the MA5 moving average with partial active profit - taking [2]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. In the medium term, the upward - oscillating trend continues, but in the short term, due to the approaching Fed meeting, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased. With tight scrap aluminum supply and unclear tax policy adjustment, it is worth paying attention to the possible narrowing of the spread with Shanghai aluminum at the end of the year [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to operate weakly, but the short - term downward space on the futures market may be limited [5]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and zinc prices are expected to rise and may break through the annual line [6]. - **Lead**: The decline in both domestic and foreign inventories supports lead prices, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is restricted. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are expected to turn bearish in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to high - level risks, and it is advisable to arrange out - of - the - money put options for distant contracts [8]. Energy - related Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. Supply reduction is less than expected, and demand is shrinking. The market is mainly supported by leading enterprises [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has fallen to the lower limit of the range. With potential supply and demand pressures at the end of the year, the price may further decline if production cuts in Xinjiang are limited [10]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are oscillating weakly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the prices are expected to oscillate [18]. - **Asphalt**: Supply has slightly increased, while demand has decreased. The commercial inventory depletion rhythm has slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [19]. - **Urea**: The urea futures price dropped significantly. Supply is abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures price continued to fall. Port inventories remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene has fallen. Although there is expected inventory accumulation in December, the supply - demand pressure will be relieved in the future. It is advisable to consider positive spreads for month - to - month contracts at low prices [22]. - **Styrene**: The domestic supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance. The short - term price may continue to rise [23]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are firm, while polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene is in a seasonal demand off - season [24]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is operating weakly, and caustic soda is also in a weak trend. Both industries face high inventory pressure [25]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA prices slightly declined. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to recover [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. The medium - term trend is weak [27]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - grade chip demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is relatively good [28]. Steel and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price weakened. Supply is relatively abundant, and the long - term trend has a downward pressure [12]. - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated downward. There is an expectation of a second price cut, and the price may oscillate weakly [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated downward. The supply is abundant, and the price may oscillate weakly [14]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. The port inventory has a structural problem, and the bottom support needs to be observed [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The supply has decreased, and the demand is still resilient. The bottom support needs to be observed [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures price oscillated weakly. South American weather has improved, and attention is paid to the USDA report. There are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [32]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term, and the palm oil is expected to oscillate within a range. Attention is paid to the MPOB report [33]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed meal and oil futures prices may continue to be weak in the short term. Attention is paid to the USDA report [34]. - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans oscillated horizontally. Short - term attention is paid to the spot and policy [35]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a short - term high - level oscillating correction. Attention is paid to short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract [36]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price rebounded. The long - term pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [37]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price may be weak in the near - term and the far - term high is expected to be established [38]. - **Cotton**: The U.S. cotton price continued to fall, and the domestic cotton price oscillated. The downstream demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and attention is paid to the production in India and Thailand and in China's Guangxi [40]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillated at a high level. The short - term price is strong, and attention is paid to inventory depletion [41]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index slightly increased. The price may be adjusted at the end of December, and the 02 contract may reflect the peak - season level. The far - term contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation [17]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillated. Low inventory supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price fell. The inventory decreased, and the medium - term trend may be range - bound. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [43]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rose strongly. The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies. It is advisable to increase positions at low prices after major central bank meetings [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. After the improvement of liquidity, there are opportunities for rebound in some varieties [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 1st to December 5th, the important data released by the US boosted the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations showed no significant progress. The US dollar index continued to decline weekly. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, in US dollar terms, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][7]. - In China, the November RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 49.9, falling into the contraction range, and the November RatingDog service industry PMI was 52.1. Stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][21]. - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Global Large - scale Asset Performance Global Stock Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the market expected a high probability of a US dollar interest rate cut in December. Global major stock markets generally rose. The Asia - Pacific region led the gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index declined weekly [9]. - Specific stock market performance data for different regions are provided, such as the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rising 1.10% weekly, the South Korea Composite Index rising 4.42% weekly, etc. [12][13][14] Global Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000. The September core PCE price index year - on - year met market expectations. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 12BP weekly to 4.14%. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the US November ISM manufacturing index was 48.2, lower than expected and the previous value, and the November ISM service industry index was 52, better than expected and the previous value. The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Most major non - US currencies against the US dollar rose, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated. The US dollar index fell 0.46% weekly [17]. Global Commodity Market Overview - The slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations led to a weekly rise in international oil prices. Supply - side disturbances drove up international copper and silver prices significantly. Major agricultural product prices declined, and non - ferrous metal prices generally rose [18]. Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market Overview - During the domestic policy window period, the market sentiment was positive. A - share major broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. The growth style performed better. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and communications led the gains, while real estate and media performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% weekly [22]. Domestic Bond Market Overview - From December 1st to December 5th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market was weak weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24]. Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the chemical industry performed poorly [26]. Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, and the market's focus will shift to the operation of the US dollar monetary policy next year. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting this week [30].

2025-12-08 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现先跌后涨的趋势，绝大部分指数收涨，其 中创业板指数领涨，周度涨幅达 1.86%。板块方面，有色金属和通 信等行业板块表现突出，周度涨幅分别为 5.35%和 3.69%；传媒和 房地产等板块走势偏弱，周度跌幅分别约为 3.86%和 2.15%。上周 市场的焦点集中在美元流动性修复的可持续性。一方面，特朗普 暗示可能提名哈塞特担任美联储主席，增强了市场对 12 月降息的 积极预期。另一方面，中法领导人会晤等地缘事件推动局势向积 极方向发展。国内方面，目前人民币汇率震荡偏强，但受日债收 益率飙升的溢出效应及国内债市波动影响，市场流动性受到扰动。 政策上，中国证监会主席吴清于 12 月 6 日表示将强化分类监管， 以"扶优限劣"为核心，对优质机构"适度松绑"，适度打开资本 空间和杠杆限制。预计短期国内市场或将延续震荡偏强格局，继 续关注后续国内债市的流动性变化以及政策端的信号。 ⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，各品种金融期权隐波（IV）普遍下降，多数 已处于年内较低水平。其中科创 50 期权隐波降幅最深，达 13%。 当前科创 50 期权（IV=24%）和创业板指期权（I ...

| 国投诉货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月08日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属震荡。 上周美国经济数据喜忧参半， 11月ISM制造业PMI48.2连续第九个月处于收缩区间， 11月 ADP就业人数减少3.2万人为2023年3月以来最低水平，不过周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人创2022年9月以 来新低，缓解劳动力市场急剧恶化担忧。周五发布的推迟数据9月核心PCE物价指数年率回落0.1个百分点至 2.8%，创三个月低位,通胀压力有限。利率市场隐含降息概率波动不大维持在80%之上, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Plastic: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - PVC: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - PTA: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clear from the given star - rating description [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins show different trends. Propylene prices are rising due to low supply and good demand, while plastics and polypropylene are falling because of weak demand [2] - Pure benzene prices are pushed up by factors such as low valuation, expected supply - demand improvement, and rising oil prices. Styrene is also rising due to tight supply - demand balance [3] - In the polyester industry, PTA is cost - driven, ethylene glycol has supply pressure, short - fiber follows raw materials, and bottle chips are affected by cost and have over - capacity issues [5] - In the coal - chemical industry, methanol has a weak supply - demand pattern, and urea prices are expected to decline due to high supply and cooling demand [6] - In the chlor - alkali industry, PVC and caustic soda are both in a weak state with high supply and low demand [7] - Soda ash and glass are in an oversupply situation in the long - term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly sorted. Market prices in Shandong are rising due to no actual increase in supply, low inventory, and good downstream purchasing [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are falling. Polyethylene has weak demand, and polypropylene has a weakening new - order situation and low - cost raw material suppression [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are rising. The weekly load of pure benzene devices is decreasing, and there is an expected supply - demand improvement. Consider long - short spreads in the positive set [3] - Styrene futures are rising. The overall domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is an expected decline in port inventory [3] Polyester - PTA prices are rebounding. PX load is slightly down, PTA output is slightly up, and the industry chain has limited supply - demand drive but cost support from oil price rebound [5] - Ethylene glycol has supply pressure. Its weekly output is rising, port inventory is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [5] - Short - fiber is running at a high load, with a slight increase in inventory. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good [5] - Bottle chips have weakening demand, stable weekly load, weak processing margins, and over - capacity issues [5] Coal - chemical - Methanol ports are de - stocking, but the inventory remains high. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short - term, and it will fluctuate weakly in the range [6] - Urea prices are falling. Although there is inventory reduction in production enterprises, the market trading is cooling due to high supply and slow procurement [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC is weakly operating. Supply pressure may be relieved if enterprises are forced to overhaul, and the export situation has improved, but overall demand is weak [7] - Caustic soda is also in a weak trend. The industry is accumulating inventory, supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is insufficient [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are falling. The industry is de - stocking, but supply pressure is high, and it shows a long - term oversupply pattern [8] - Glass prices are fluctuating slightly. The industry was de - stocking last week, but the sales may not be maintained this week. It has a long - term oversupply situation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, same as iron ore [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is developing [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure. With the decline of hot metal production, the furnace materials are under pressure in the negative feedback pattern. The steel market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes need to be monitored [2] - The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the seasonal decline of hot metal. The demand for raw materials has some resilience, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices. The prices are likely to be weak and oscillating [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have complex supply - demand situations. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating, and the silicon iron supply is decreasing with a small decline in inventory. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures market continued to fall. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly with pressure to be relieved [2] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production continued to decline, the supply pressure was gradually relieved, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, and the steel mills' profits were still poor. The real estate investment continued to decline sharply, the infrastructure growth rate continued to fall, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the domestic demand was generally weak. The steel exports remained at a high level in November [2] - **Price Trend**: The steel prices were mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes needed to be monitored [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased compared with the previous period, much stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries increased significantly, and the shipment from Brazil decreased from the high level but was still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [3] - **Demand**: The terminal demand was at a low level in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability was poor. The hot metal production continued to decrease last week [3] - **Price Trend**: The iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. There were short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium - to - long - term, with the gradual oversupply, there was a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] Coke - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The market still expected the second round of price cuts for coke. The coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The coke inventory decreased slightly. The downstream purchased in small quantities as needed, and the inventory changed little. The traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [4] - **Price Trend**: The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [4] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [6] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The terminal inventory decreased slightly, the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [6] - **Price Trend**: The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. The Comilog quotation increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the reported volume decreased [7] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: There was a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance was relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursued the most cost - effective option and changed the manganese ore formula. The hot metal production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [7] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. The market's expectation for coal mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power cost and semi - coke price [8] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production rebounded to a high level. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had some resilience. The silicon iron supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [8]

| E T 1 | 2 P | | --- | --- | | N | | | 1 | 1 90 1 | | D | | | 1 . | | | 2 | | 【沥青】 近期河北鑫海、温州中油、山东胜星等停产或转产渣油，克石化及辽河石化提产，整体供应微增。周度出货量 不足40万吨，环比减少3.4%，位于近四年同期低位水平。社会库环比小幅下滑，同比来看，自10月下旬出现由 减转增的拐点后同比增幅逐步扩大;炼厂库存环比小增，整体商业库存去化节奏明显放缓。BU走势承压。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月08日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 中国1-11月原油进口量同比增加3.2%。近期俄乌和平谈判维持僵局,关于基辅的安全保障及俄罗斯实控领土问 题 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with limited operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Tin: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper increased in position and continued to rise. The spot price followed the increase. The premium of Shanghai copper and Guangdong copper changed, and the premium of Yangshan copper expanded. The refined - scrap price difference converged rapidly. The social inventory increased slightly over the weekend. There is a probability that the upward trend of SHFE copper will pause this week. If certain conditions are met, the copper price at a record high may回调. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average. If there is strong position volume cooperation, the upward trend of SHFE copper may expand to 95,000 - 97,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Today, SHFE aluminum first declined and then rose in a high - level shock. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China expanded. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was basically flat compared with last Thursday. Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of aluminum price is oscillating upward, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. It is not advisable to chase the rise. The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited follow - up increase, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly in a weak operation [2] Zinc - The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and the expectation of overseas smelter production increase in the fourth quarter is mediocre. The supply - side constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, supporting the upward movement of the disk. The U.S. employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is strong. Zinc is not considered for short - selling allocation. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and SHFE zinc is expected to test the annual line and may even break through it [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of SHFE nickel accelerated, and the market trading was active with increasing positions. The stainless - steel market was sluggish. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled the price limit and then lowered the price. The supply side actively cut prices to sell goods, but the trading volume was cold. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel changed. The bullish themes of SHFE nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak operation with a downward - shifting center of gravity [4] Tin - The short - term two - way fluctuation range of SHFE tin is large. The MA5 moving average can be used as the boundary of strength. The supply - loss themes and actual supply constraints in 2025 are the core basis for raising the average tin price. In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, there is a high probability of a supply - side turning point, and the recovery speed is faster than demand. The social inventory of SMM tin increased. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased. The visible inventory in the two markets is neutral. Attention should be paid to the high - level risk, and a hedging strategy is still needed for medium - long - term supply - demand allocation. It is inclined that the tin price is approaching the adjustment time point [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the continuous progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the strong performance of the traditional vehicle sales peak season, and the short supply of energy - storage batteries. Some phosphoric - iron - lithium enterprises promoted price increases, but the increase amount was low. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. The sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments are the focus of the market, and it is regarded as a short - term strong - side fluctuation [5] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the key support level at the lower edge of the range. From the supply side, the marginal reduction effect of the dry - season production cuts in the southwest region is expected to weaken after December, and the supply pressure may gradually stabilize. From the demand side, both the silicone and polysilicon industries face demand contraction pressure in December. The inventory reduction of industrial silicon at the end of the year is still under pressure. In the short term, the orange weather warning and safety - production notice in Xinjiang may support the market sentiment, but if the actual production cuts of local factories are limited, the price may further decline [5] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. On the supply side, the production - cut intensity of upstream enterprises has not met market expectations, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the silicon - wafer production plan in December decreased by 16% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream's willingness to accept the spot purchase price of polysilicon decreased. The current spot market is mainly supported by leading enterprises' price - holding. The announcement of new brands of polysilicon by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last Friday had a negative impact on the market, and subsequent warehouse - receipt generation needs to be tracked [6]

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