1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to strengthen. After the Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying, the easing trade is expected to continue. Attention is paid to this week's US November non - farm and CPI data [1] - Short - term silver hit a new high, and gold is approaching the October high. If the resistance is broken, precious metals may remain strong. Platinum and palladium hit new highs, and long - term allocation is clear [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Fed's Policy and Officials' Views - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, announced to buy $40 billion short - term bonds in the next 30 days. There were internal differences, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years [1] - Powell said the risk of employment decline increased, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The meeting was overall neutral, and restarting bond - buying was earlier than expected [1] - After the meeting, several officials still expressed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. Last week's employment data was mixed, with the number of job openings in October increasing to 7.67 million and the weekly initial jobless claims increasing by 44,000 to 236,000 [1] - Goolsbee: Wait for more data before cutting rates, and expect more rate cuts in 2026 than the median; Schmid: Inflation is still too high, and a moderately restrictive monetary policy should be maintained; Paulson: More concerned about employment risks, and the monetary policy is restrictive; Harker: Tend to adopt a slightly more restrictive policy stance [2] Market Performance of Precious Metals - Short - term silver continued to hit a new high, showing strong financial attributes and tight spot supply under the enhanced expectation of Fed's rate cut. Gold rose to near the October high [1] - Platinum and palladium prices hit new highs on Monday, with the outer market breaking through the previous high and accelerating. They follow the bull market of precious metals, are favored by long - term funds, and have macro premium and potential demand from the commercial space and hydrogen sectors [1] Other News - Trump prefers to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the next Fed chairman [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed to give up joining NATO during a five - hour talk in Berlin. The US envoy said the talks made "significant progress" but did not disclose details [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic driving crude oil prices remains the pressure of oversupply, and geopolitical events have a limited impact on price increases [3]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand rhythm mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will be an upward pressure in the medium term; the low-sulfur fuel oil market will continue to be weak [4]. - The demand for asphalt is differentiated between the north and south, and the price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals and falling oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - US crude oil drilling and fracturing activities are at a low level at the end of the year. A tanker carrying about 1.85 million barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude was seized, but the geopolitical factors have limited impact on boosting oil prices due to the oversupply situation [3]. - Geopolitical developments related to Russia are making the crude oil supply-demand structure more relaxed, and the core of price fluctuations is the pressure of oversupply [3]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil High-sulfur Fuel Oil - On the supply side, the geopolitical impact continues. The shipments from the Middle East have decreased slightly in the past two weeks, with Saudi exports rising and Iranian and UAE exports falling, possibly due to sanctions and logistics disruptions. US seizure of an Iranian tanker is expected to continue affecting Middle East supply. Russian shipments have also significantly declined since early December [4]. - Singapore and Middle East inventories are rising, and floating storage due to logistics blockages has accumulated, resulting in sufficient supply. On the demand side, low crack spreads and improved coking profits boost feedstock demand, and the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak may support bunker demand. Short-term crack spreads may be supported by supply-demand mismatches, but high inventories will be a pressure in the medium term [4]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market remains in a loose pattern. Domestic production is expected to decline due to limited low-sulfur quotas in December, which may increase import demand. However, overseas supply pressure still exists, and future supply is expected to gradually increase, so it will continue to be weak [4]. Asphalt - Demand is differentiated between the north and south. In the north, winter storage is the main demand, but buyers are cautious due to high prices. In the south, supported by real demand, refineries have reduced production, and inventory has decreased. Recently, some major refineries in East and South China have offered significant shipping discounts, and the de-stocking of social and refinery inventories has slowed down. The price is under pressure due to falling oil prices and weak fundamentals [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending December 12th, the A - share market showed a structured and volatile trend. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 260 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The three major indexes showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.34%. There was relatively limited information on short - term incremental policies and economic data, and market structural characteristics emerged [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 6 points [1]. - In terms of term structure, the weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of the ending positions of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 0.33%, - 2.32%, - 4.16%, and - 9.95% respectively, and the discount of far - month contracts widened again [1]. - The net value of the quantitative CTA strategy for financial derivatives did not change last week. In the long - term, although the social financing data slightly exceeded expectations, the credit data such as M1 and M2 showed sub - seasonal declines and were lower than expected. The credit factor put pressure on stock index futures, with a relatively large decline in IC. In the short - term, the high - frequency real estate and consumption sectors were still weak. The RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, and the capital situation remained relatively loose, but the short - term increase was relatively limited. In terms of positions, the risk appetite significantly recovered compared with the previous week. IF and IH remained relatively neutral, while IC and IM had relatively large declines. The overall comprehensive signal was in the neutral range. For bond futures, the capital situation remained loose. After a short - term rise, the positions of bond futures significantly declined. The stock - bond seesaw effect shrank, and the bond market was insensitive to fundamental feedback. The position factor of TF slightly declined, and institutional year - end allocation behavior was relatively cautious. The comprehensive signal was in a neutral and volatile state [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - For economic kinetic energy indicators, including blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc., different indicators showed different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The scores for stock index futures and bond futures were both 8 points [2]. 3.2 Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The scores for stock index futures and bond futures were both 8 points [3]. 3.3 Liquidity Indicators - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The score for stock index futures was 9 points [4]. 3.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as price - to - earnings ratio, price - to - sales ratio, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The score for stock index futures was 10 points [5]. 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Stock - index - related market sentiment indicators such as margin trading balance, northbound capital inflow, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The score for bond futures was 9 points [6]. 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators such as the yield of 10 - year government - developed bonds, the VIX index, etc. had different weekly changes, numerical values, historical quantiles, and correlations with the bond index. The score for bond futures was 6 points [7]. 3.7 Strategy Introduction (Quantitative CTA Strategy) - The product pool includes stock index futures and bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - related high - frequency financial data. The long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic low - frequency indicators. The position data is synthesized considering institutional long and short positions [15]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by the signals of three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Signals are shielded 7 days before the delivery date. The stop - loss point is set at a daily decline of more than 1%, with equal - weighted allocation of capital. Consecutive two - day same - direction signals are shielded [16][17]. 3.8 Last Week's Situation - The data of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts from December 8th to 12th, 2025 were all 0 [18]. 3.9 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The three - factor model is constructed using PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression, with signals divided into three types: '1', '0', and '- 1'. The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading is carried out when there is resonance. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [19]. 3.10 TF and T Main Contract Trading Signals - From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the N - S model and trend regression model signals of TF and T main contracts showed different situations [22].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report - Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 8th to December 12th, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and planned to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days. Globally, stock markets were divided, bond markets oscillated, and commodities declined significantly. In China, stock markets were also divided, bond markets rose, and commodities declined. Overall, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > stocks > commodities. The market will focus on the performance of recent macro - data and its short - term impact on the prices of major asset classes [2][5][20] Group 3: Summary of Global Major Asset Performance 3.1 Global Stock Market - From December 8th to December 12th, due to the implementation of the US dollar interest - rate cut and increased concerns about AI, major global stock markets showed mixed performance. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index stabilized at a low level weekly. US stocks performed poorly [7] - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.53% weekly, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34%. In the European market, the CI Europe rose 0.67%. In the American market, the MSCI US fell 0.68%. In other markets, the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.85% [10][11][12][13] 3.2 Global Bond Market - In the week of December 8th - 12th, although the December FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, there were significant differences among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment. The New York Fed planned to buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 4BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield rose 5BP to 4.19%. The bond market oscillated strongly weekly, with high - yield bonds > Treasury bonds > credit bonds globally [14] 3.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.59% weekly. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar showed mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate oscillated strongly [15] 3.4 Global Commodity Market - Supply surplus pressured oil prices, causing international oil prices to fall significantly weekly. The decline of the US dollar index led to rising precious - metal prices. Most agricultural and non - ferrous metal prices declined [17] Group 4: Summary of Domestic Major Asset Performance 4.1 Domestic Stock Market - With the implementation of important domestic policies and stable market sentiment, major A - share broad - based indexes showed differentiated trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style performed better. Sectors such as communication and military industry led the gains, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34% weekly [21] 4.2 Domestic Bond Market - From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 4.7 billion yuan. The bond market was strongly trending weekly, with Treasury bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds overall [22] 4.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the energy sector performed poorly [24] Group 5: Outlook for Major Asset Prices - With the implementation of recent important policies in China and the US, the market will focus on the performance of recent macro - data and its short - term impact on the prices of major asset classes [2][28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - On December 15, 2025, the platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit a record high since listing and recorded the first daily limit. Platinum, with industrial and financial attributes, follows the logic of a precious - metal super - bull cycle. [2] - Platinum and palladium are still favored by long - position funds in the context of strong gold and silver prices. With the synchronous easing of the Sino - US monetary cycles, they have more macro - premiums. In the long - and medium - term, the rhythm of multi - allocation for platinum and palladium is clear. [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Event - On December 15, 2025, the platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange reached a new high since listing and recorded the first daily limit. [2] Analysis of the First Daily - limit Logic - In the precious - metal super - bull cycle, funds shift from high - valued to low - valued varieties. Since November 2025, silver has led the precious - metal sector with a 29.3% increase. On December 15, 14.12 billion yuan of funds flowed out of Shanghai silver futures, while 6.84 billion yuan flowed into Guangzhou platinum futures, with an increase of 7055 lots. [2] - The supply of platinum is highly brittle, and the prospect of large - scale hydrogen energy applications boosts consumption expectations. Although the current platinum consumption in hydrogen energy accounts for less than 1% of the total, once the demand side breaks through, platinum's scarcity will increase. [2] - There is a re - balance between "money" and "resources". In the context of Western anti - globalization, countries scramble for key resources. China's dependence on platinum imports exceeds 80%, so platinum is a natural multi - allocation variety. [3] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum futures have prominent independent pricing ability. On December 15, 2025, the Guangzhou platinum futures hit the daily limit, while the NYMEX platinum main contract rose less than 2.5% and the London platinum spot price declined slightly, indicating that it is mainly driven by domestic funds. [3] Outlook for the Future - Platinum and palladium prices are at record highs and generally follow the precious - metal super - bull cycle. They are still favored by long - position funds due to their relatively low valuations. The synchronous easing of the Sino - US monetary cycles provides more macro - premiums. The development of commercial space and hydrogen energy sectors gives room for imagination in platinum and palladium consumption. With strong supply constraints, the long - and medium - term multi - allocation rhythm is clear. [3]

| Million | > 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月15日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，市场传言明年新疆种植面积将因政策因素出现减少，关注后续情况。棉花现货主流销售甚差总体持稳。虽 然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平，销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体 持稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨，环比增加17 ...

| | | | 11/11/11 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月15日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡小幅反弹。螺纹表需继续下滑，产量同步下降，库存延续去化态势。热卷供需依然双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍 有待缓解。 轶水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大, 关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从11月统计数据看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Overall, some products face weak demand and supply pressure, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - policies [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures rose and then fell, closing below the moving - average system. The expected increase in supply over demand will suppress market sentiment and push prices down. For plastics, imports are expected to increase, and demand support is weak. For polypropylene, production is expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and rebounded, with a slight decrease in import pressure and stable port inventory. There is an expectation of de - stocking in the first half of next year. The main contract of styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with no obvious positive drive from the cost side, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX and PTA oscillated and declined last week due to falling oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded but are still under pressure. Short - fiber's supply - demand seasonally weakens, and bottle - chip demand fades [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated within a range. The port is de - stocking, but there is an expectation of significant inventory accumulation. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly. Urea prices oscillated weakly, with a high - level daily output and a loose supply - demand pattern [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC rose due to positive macro - policies, but demand is still weak. Caustic soda also rose, with high inventory and supply pressure, and demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose due to positive policies, with high production and supply pressure. Glass rose, but the de - stocking trend may not be maintained, and demand is insufficient [7]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月15日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为震荡偏强,现货价格坚挺,国产大豆新作供应端收紧,市场也存在惜售情绪,对大豆价格一直 是存在支撑的。政策端本周仍然在进行购销双向竞价交易,进口大豆方面也在进行拍卖。短期持续关注政策和 现货端的表现。 ...

成长因子收益边际回升 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 权益市场风格 2025年12月15日 周度报告 操作评级 中信五风格-成长★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 截至2025/12/12当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南华 商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为0.26%、0.11%、-1.21% 。 公募基金市场方面，近一周纯债策略收益小幅回升；权益策略中 普通股票策略收益表现相对偏强，贵金属ETF收益继续走高，白 银期货ETF上涨9.27%，能源化工与豆粕ETF有所回撤。 中信五风格方面，上周成长风格收涨，其余风格收跌；风格轮动 图显示成长与金融风格相对强弱边际提升，稳定风格相对强弱动 量显著走低。公募基金池方面，近一周金融风格基金平均超额表 现相对偏弱，从基金风格系数走势来看市场对周期风格偏移度有 所下降；本周拥挤度指标相比上周小幅回升，当前周期风格基金 拥挤度上升至近一年以来偏高分位区间，而金融与消费风格拥挤 度位于近一年偏低分位区间。 中性策略方 ...