gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) EIA周度数据显示美国原油累库，汽油库存超预期大幅累库。委内瑞拉11月石油出口升至92.1万桶/ 日。普京表示俄罗斯无法接受欧洲试图对美国所提俄乌"和平计划"作出的修改。多艘俄罗斯货轮 在土耳其海岸附近的黑海海域遇袭。短期消息面多空交织，油价波动加剧。中长期基本面供需宽松 扩大,油价中枢存下行压力。 【责金属】 隔夜美国11月ADP就业减少3.2万人不及预期,就业走弱继续得到验证。12月降息概率接近90%已基 本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜追高。今晚关注美国周度初请失业 金人数。 【铜】 隔夜铜市增仓创高,LME注销仓单占比从低位快速升至35%,虽在中性水平,但引发市场对伦铜潜在 出库预期。LME0-3月现货升水88美元,市场关注物流流向,包括美国铜市仍具备吸引力以及国内延 续出口方向。海外投行上调铜及均价预期;艾芬豪稳定刚果KK矿年产量目标,嘉能可延续近年产出 压力。国内现铜高价跟涨,且沪粤维持升水,等待今日社库。多单持有,关注接近记录水平的量价 表现。 【铝】 隔夜铜价刷新历史新高，铝价跟随强震荡。铝市基本面矛盾 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Not clearly defined in the given content - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. Fed Chair Powell's speech at Stanford University did not cover the economic situation and monetary policy. After silver reached a new all - time high, its upward momentum slowed. Before gold breaks through the previous high resistance, precious metals as a whole should be treated as in a fluctuating state, and chasing high prices is not advisable. Platinum has a supply shortage this year, and its historical supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium. Attention should be paid to tonight's US ADP employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data [1] 3. Other Information from Related News - Trump said the US will soon launch a land strike against drug - trafficking groups [2] - Putin threatened to cut off Ukraine's sea lanes, vowed to strengthen strikes on Ukrainian facilities and ships. He said Russia cannot accept the European "peace plan amendment" and is ready for war if Europe wants one. Putin held a nearly 5 - hour meeting with a US envoy, and the Russian side said the meeting was fruitful and both sides agreed not to disclose the essence of the negotiation [2] - The OECD maintained its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next, and expects the interest - rate cut cycle of major economies to end next year [2]

| 11/11/2 | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月03日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，盘中跌幅较大。棉花现货主流销售基差变动不大，总体持稳。虽然今年新锦增产幅度较大,但商业库存并 不高，销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。市场对 于国内新年度的种植有一定的利多预期，目标价格或有所变化。关注郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月27 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has a downward pressure on the central price due to the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals, despite a short - term rebound from geopolitical factors [3] - The core driver of the fuel oil market lies in the supply side, with different influencing factors for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, and the supply - demand structure needs further attention [4] - The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in prices, with weak demand and slow inventory reduction, expected to continue the weak trend [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - API data shows an increase in refined oil and crude oil inventories in the US [3] - The SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, under maintenance since mid - November, is expected to resume operation within the next seven days, faster than the original plan [3] - After the rebound pricing due to geopolitical tensions, there is a sign of giving back some geopolitical premiums, and the expanding supply - demand surplus determines the downward pressure on the oil price center [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The short - term support comes from the decline in Middle East shipments and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and previous coking profits and quota shortages boosted its feedstock demand [4] - The early issuance of domestic crude oil quotas may divert this demand [4] - Although the Russia - Ukraine negotiations send positive signals, the risk premium will not completely disappear before clear implementation, and sanctions will continue to affect the shipment of high - sulfur resources [4] - In the medium term, logistics difficulties have led to floating storage inventory accumulation, and the loose pattern remains unchanged [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply fluctuations mainly come from unplanned overseas refinery maintenance [4] - The return of the Bintulu refinery and the postponed restart of the Azur refinery have slightly relieved short - term supply pressure, but weakening refined oil cracking continues to put pressure on it [4] - Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from continuous overseas refinery restarts and whether the year - end shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve the supply - demand structure [4] Asphalt - The spot price of the domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation trend [5] - Demand in the Northeast and North China regions is gradually stagnant, with traders mainly stocking up in warehouses; the South China market has weak trading sentiment due to a low contract price from a Hainan refinery, and prices are weakly stable [5] - The weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a near - four - year low [5] - Social inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has gradually expanded after a turning point from a decrease to an increase in late October; refinery inventory has increased slightly month - on - month, and the de - stocking rhythm of overall commercial inventory has significantly slowed down [5] - The BU is expected to continue the weak trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are supported by supply - demand factors, while others are affected by cost, inventory, and market sentiment [2][3][4] - For most metals, there are specific price trends and trading suggestions based on their individual fundamentals and market conditions Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, SHFE copper increased in positions, fluctuated, and closed up. The spot copper was reported at 88,980 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 140 yuan and a shrinking premium in Guangdong to 85 yuan. It has resilience in the previous trading - intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions should be held based on the MA5 daily moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of SHFE aluminum have limited contradictions. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major areas has shown narrow fluctuations this week. It is testing the resistance near the previous high of 22,000 yuan. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and SHFE aluminum has expanded to over 800 yuan, with potential for narrowing at the end of the year [3] - Alumina has a high operating capacity, with increasing industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - Domestic smelters have a strong production - reduction expectation, and overseas smelters have a mediocre production - increase expectation in the fourth quarter. The supply constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, and the zinc price is expected to rise, possibly breaking through the annual line [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel's rebound is under pressure, and it is mainly in a low - volatility, range - bound operation. The inventory of stainless steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased in positions and rose again. It is not recommended to chase the high price, and a medium - to - long - term short - position with a hedging strategy is advisable [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates narrowly. The market has a large divergence. The total market inventory has decreased, and the price of Australian ore remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a weakening trend. The supply in the main production areas of Sichuan and Yunnan may decrease during the dry season, and the demand may be suppressed by the joint production cuts of silicone enterprises, but the price decline is expected to be limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon strengthened again today after a callback due to position limits yesterday. The main driver is the expectation of tight delivery products. In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate due to potential regulatory rules and national meetings [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Hot Rolled Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and policies, with a generally weak domestic demand and a high but declining export. The market shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with strong supply and weakening demand. The market is expected to oscillate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by downstream demand, carbon element supply, and inventory. Coke prices are likely to continue the rebound, while coking coal prices may be dragged down [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by supply, demand, and raw material factors. Their prices are oscillating, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The market oscillated today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled steel demand declined, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production declined, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. Steel mills continued to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level [2] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices were relatively strong in the off - season. With positive policy expectations, the market will continue to oscillate and strengthen, but the rhythm may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, and domestic arrival volume was high. Port inventory continued to accumulate and was approaching the annual high [3] - **Demand**: Steel's apparent demand was low, in the off - season and with poor profitability. Iron - water was in a production - cut trend, and iron - ore demand had room to further weaken [3] - **Market Outlook**: The macro atmosphere was warm, and there were expectations for policy benefits. The market was expected to oscillate [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, with a slight rebound due to expectations of downstream replenishment [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream demand had some resilience, but steel mills had a strong desire to lower raw - material prices [4] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to continue the rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, rebounding due to expectations of downstream replenishment [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking - coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average with mostly falling prices, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory increased slightly [6] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be dragged down by high Mongolian coal imports in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day. Manganese - ore spot prices increased due to the futures rebound [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production decreased seasonally, weekly silicon - manganese production decreased slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly [7] - **Market Outlook**: Supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day [8] - **Supply and Demand**: There were expectations for coal supply guarantee, leading to expectations of lower electricity costs and semi - coke prices. Iron - water production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium production increased. Overall demand had some resilience. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Market Outlook**: Observe the bottom - support strength [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly rated - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating short - term balance and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: 女女女 - Ethylene Glycol: 女女女 - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ななな - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are in a state of supply - demand balance, while others face supply or demand pressures. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely, with good downstream demand and rising offers. Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillate. Polyethylene has limited market drivers and a weakening cost - support. Polypropylene may see a slight increase in production as some maintenance devices restart [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are in a low - level oscillation, with a slight rebound in East China's spot and rising buying interest in Shandong. There is a downward pressure due to high arrival expectations and falling demand. Styrene futures rise, supported by an improved supply - demand structure [3] Polyester - PX and PTA fall as the impact of the blending market weakens. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA may continue with cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has a weak medium - term outlook but limited downward space. Short - fiber has a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - grade PET has a weakening demand and over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures oscillate and correct. The port inventory may remain high, and the market may continue to oscillate in a range. Urea futures rise, and production enterprises are destocking. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the downstream chasing sentiment may decline [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Export may improve, but domestic demand is weak. Supply pressure may ease, and it is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda continues to decline due to high supply, low demand, and still - profitable conditions [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash falls. The industry is destocking, and the supply is expected to oscillate at a high level. The demand for heavy soda is shrinking. Glass futures are weak, with low demand and a need for further cold - repair to drive up prices [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current silver price trend shows dual - wheel drive characteristics, with the core being the increased instability of the credit currency system and the indication by the gold - silver ratio that the global economy is moving towards re - inflation [1]. - The fundamental aspect of silver is generally strong, but its strength is mainly based on investment and allocation needs rather than consumption - based demand [1]. - New industrial demands, especially the explosive growth of photovoltaic demand for silver, form the base of silver demand, while financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand for silver [1]. - The gradual repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of each silver bull market, and it also measures market risk preference this year [2]. - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage, but there are still many factors supporting the continued strengthening of silver prices, and the strong price state will last for a long time [2]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Core drivers, sustainability, and fundamental changes of silver price increase - The core drivers are the instability of the credit currency system and the indication of re - inflation by the gold - silver ratio. The fundamental aspect of silver is strong, and the strength comes from investment and allocation needs [1]. 2. Roles of new industrial and financial factors in silver demand - Photovoltaic demand has increased from less than 5% to 20% in the past five years, forming the base of silver demand. Financial factors are the leading force in the incremental demand [1]. 3. Nature of the gold - silver ratio repair - The repair of the gold - silver ratio is a core feature of the silver bull market and measures market risk preference this year. When market risk aversion eases, the gold - silver ratio decreases, often leading to an independent silver market [2]. 4. Stage of the silver bull market - The silver bull market is in the middle - to - late stage in terms of time, but there are many factors supporting the continued rise of silver prices, and the strong price will last for a long time [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities having their own supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. For most commodities, the short - term trend is mainly volatile, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors such as supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and geopolitical situations [2][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. External market oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although the SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is expected to resume operation earlier than planned, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's feed demand was previously boosted by coking profits and quota shortages, but the early issuance of crude oil quotas may divert feed demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is pressured by the weakening of refined oil cracking. The short - term supply pressure of both has been relieved, but the medium - term supply is still in a loose pattern [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in spot prices. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, and the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has slowed down significantly. It is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Silver's upward momentum slowed after hitting a record high, and gold broke through the previous high. Overall, precious metals should be treated as volatile, and chasing high prices should be cautious. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium's supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, approaching the short - term moving average. SHFE copper shows certain resilience in the previous trading intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the spot discount has slightly widened. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and the seasonal inventory performance is neutral. The casting aluminum - alloy and SHFE aluminum price gap may narrow at the end of the year [5] - **Alumina**: Overnight, alumina hit a new low since listing. The domestic operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It will mainly operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [6] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, while overseas zinc ingots are in short supply. LME zinc is operating at a high level, and the export window is open, pulling up the domestic market. The bottom support of zinc is strong, but consumption is restricted. SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transmitting the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic social inventory is at a low level of 35,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure is limited. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and medium - and long - term short positions can be paired with hedging strategies [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the correction of polysilicon prices. The current supply - demand shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The subsequent focus should be on the price trend of DMC [10] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices declined. Thread's apparent demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory decreased slowly. The overall steel mills are in a loss state, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The steel price is expected to continue the rebound trend with fluctuations [12] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The global shipment is strong, the domestic arrival volume is high, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend. The demand for iron ore has the possibility of further weakening. The market expects policy benefits, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [13] - **Coke**: The intraday coke price fluctuated strongly. The market has certain expectations for downstream restocking. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coke price is expected to maintain the rebound rhythm in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The intraday coking coal price fluctuated strongly. The market may expect downstream restocking. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday manganese silicon price fluctuated. The spot price of manganese ore has increased due to the rebound of the futures market. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing, and the inventory is slowly accumulating. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [16] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The intraday silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and semi - coke prices. The overall demand has some resilience. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [17] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to fluctuate upward. The production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory, and short - term exports relieve some supply - side pressure. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range [21] - **Methanol**: The night - session methanol price fell slightly. The port inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and the production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The market is in a state of multi - empty game, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term [22] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The weekly device operating rate decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume is expected to be high, and the downstream demand decreased. The market is expected to continue the low - level fluctuation pattern [23] - **Styrene**: The cost side of styrene is under pressure due to the continuous inventory accumulation expectation of pure benzene. The supply - demand structure is stable, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene's chemical - downstream demand has some support, and the price has a slight upward trend. The overall supply of polyethylene changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may ease. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and weakening trend, with high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [26] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA are driven down by the decline in oil prices. PTA continues to reduce production, and the short - term demand impact is negative. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to continue the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the supply has marginal improvement. The price is mainly volatile, but it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term trend is weak [28] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and the production efficiency is still poor. The long - term pressure is over - capacity, and the price is mainly cost - driven [29] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different, with Brazil normal and Argentina slow. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the upward breakthrough needs further observation [33] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation, with supply reduction having marginal benefits. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. Soybean oil is expected to be supported by the expected strong performance of US soybeans [34] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price continues to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans show a sideways and slightly strong oscillation. High - protein soybeans have a tight supply, and US soybeans are expected to be strong. The short - term focus should be on the domestic spot market and policy guidance [36] - **Corn**: The spot price drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The supply - demand mismatch still exists, and the short - term 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a callback [37] - **Hogs**: Hog futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price continues to decline slightly. The short - term supply and demand are both under pressure, and the medium - term price is likely to have a second bottom - testing [38] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rose sharply during the day and then fell back. The far - month contracts are not recommended to chase high prices, and the near - month contracts may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation should be temporarily observed [40] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good, and the subsequent production situation should be concerned [41] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The short - term price is strong due to the decrease in inventory, but the long - term far - month contracts may have inventory pressure. The focus should be on the inventory reduction situation [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The low inventory provides certain support, and the operation should be temporarily observed [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the demand is weak. The medium - term trend is expected to be in the range - bound state, and the operation should be temporarily observed or short - term [44] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market fell with reduced trading volume, and the index futures contracts all closed down. The short - term macro - liquidity factor is uncertain, and the strategy should be mainly observation and defense [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillate and consolidate. The bond market sentiment is generally cautious, and the short - term bond market is difficult to break through the oscillating market. The long - end interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase, and the yield curve may flatten slightly [46]