Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability and a suggestion to wait and see [1] - Apple, Natural Rubber, 20 - rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market has a tight inventory expectation for cotton, while the downstream demand for pure cotton yarn is insufficient. The trend of US sugar is downward, and Zheng sugar is weak. Apple demand enters the off - season, and the market focuses on the new - season yield estimate. For natural rubber, downstream demand is average, supply increases, and inventory rises, with an export performance exceeding expectations. Pulp demand is weak with relatively loose supply. Log supply has certain positive factors, but the price rebound power is insufficient [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton maintained a narrow - range shock. Domestic cotton trading was average with a firm - to - strong basis. The positive news from Sino - US negotiations boosted prices, but details remained to be seen. Pure cotton yarn trading was light due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. As of the end of May, the commercial cotton inventory was 345.87 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease of 69.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54 million tons. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, the lowest in the past 10 years. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil's central - southern region, the production data in the second half of May was bearish, with an increase in cane crushing volume and sugar production year - on - year, and a continuous rise in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In June, the rainfall in the main production areas was low, which was conducive to cane harvesting. In China, Zheng sugar fluctuated weakly. In May, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, an increase of 33.31 million tons year - on - year. The import volume increased significantly due to rising import profits and the issuance of licenses. Although Guangxi's sugar production increased this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. The demand entered the off - season. Although the cold - storage apple inventory was low, the increase in seasonal fruit supply and hot weather reduced apple demand, and the price increase slowed down. The sharp decline in litchi prices also affected apple demand. The market's focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The cold wave and strong winds during the flowering period in the western production areas might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality, but the impact of low - temperature in April on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The overall flower quantity in the production areas was sufficient, and the yield estimate was relatively bearish. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber - The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged. RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR rose marginally. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally increased. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline last week. In May, China's tire exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate continued to decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded. The all - steel tire inventory continued to decline, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao rose to 60.7 million tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the general - trade inventory increased. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose slightly to 1.37 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.84 million tons. The strategy is to be bullish [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 6050 yuan/ton, Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen were quoted at 5250 yuan/ton, and the broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 4100 yuan/ton. As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 million tons, a 2.8 - million - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. In May, China imported 301.6 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 1554.7 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory was high year - on - year, pulp demand was weak, and supply was relatively loose. Pulp valuation was low with strong support near the previous low. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In June, the log quotation in New Zealand stopped falling and stabilized, and the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased month - on - month. After the increase in foreign quotations, the spot price bottomed out and rose, supporting the futures price. After entering the off - season, the average daily port delivery volume was about 60,000 cubic meters, showing relatively good demand. As of June 13, the total log inventory in national ports was 3.45 million cubic meters, a 60,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous period. The radiata pine inventory was 2.72 million cubic meters, a 30,000 - cubic - meter decrease. Radiata pine continued to destock, reducing inventory pressure. Although the supply had certain positive factors, the price rebound power was insufficient due to the off - season domestic demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [8]

| 11/11/2 | 国版斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月19日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ★☆★ | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 纯藏 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 伊朗甲醇装置大面积停车减产,霍尔木兹海峡航运安全风险加剧。但现阶段港口库存 ...

【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 【原油】 | 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 亚盘时段国际油价震荡，SC08合约涨4.7%表现持续偏强。伊以冲突仍在持续，且美国直接个入的可能性增加。据悉 欧洲官员将与伊朗外长周五在日内瓦举行核谈判,但在美国确认参与前伊朗的能源基础设施及霍尔木兹海峡通行相 关的供应风险仍存。 上周美国DOE原油库存因净出口增加而大幅下降1147.3万桶。原油仍持震荡偏强判断，投资者 仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含硫原油的供应犹动 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: No rating [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, policies, geopolitical conflicts, and supply - demand relationships to provide insights into price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Beans 1 saw a decline with reduced positions. Domestic soybeans performed weaker than imported ones. In the medium - term, weather is the main price - influencing factor for imported soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy is bullish in the long - term, providing support to GBOT soybeans. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Due to the escalating Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil fluctuated widely, and US soybeans remained strong, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in positions and price. The strong performance of domestic oil futures may limit the rise of soybean meal. On June 19, CBOT was closed. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean planting. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose today, with 12 million tons of imported soybeans arriving in June. The oil mills' operating rate is high, and soybean meal is in a stock - building cycle. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the oil market and weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Driven by the biodiesel theme, soybean oil remained strong. The profit of soybean crushing improved, which is beneficial for China to purchase forward soybeans. The market showed a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. As the oil price on the futures market rose, the spot basis weakened. In the long - term, the biodiesel development is likely to support vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a critical growth period, and its price is supported by weather premiums and changes in the crude oil market. Canadian old - crop inventories are tight, and new - crop prospects are promising, so the medium - term price is likely to rise. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The main boost to rapeseed oil prices comes from import uncertainties. In the weather - sensitive period, rapeseed futures prices may rise in the medium - term but face short - term pressure from demand [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated upwards. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policies weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is around 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. After the wheat minimum purchase price policy was announced, the actual price increase was small. Corn traders expect future price increases. North and South port inventories are decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is falling, with inventories remaining stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of corn is not obvious, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures declined significantly in the near - term contracts and slightly in the far - term ones. The spot price remained stable. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices by reducing the inventory of breeding sows, but the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter in the medium - term due to high production capacity and the number of new - born piglets. Attention should be paid to the weight - reduction rhythm [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated within the range formed yesterday. Spot prices rose across the country. As egg prices entered a low - level range, bottom - fishing sentiment emerged, and demand was released in advance due to the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival. However, due to continuous capacity release and normal old - hen culling progress, the egg price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★伊以-①哈梅内伊称伊朗不会投降,不接受强加的战或和。②据悉如果美国干预以色列和伊朗的冲突,俄 罗斯威胁将介入。③美媒：特朗普私下批准对的伊朗攻击计划,但未下达最终命令。④美国驻以色列大使馆 人员开始撤离以色列。⑤特朗普称伊朗请求与美谈判，伊方否认。随后美媒报道称，伊朗将接受与美会谈的 提议。⑥特朗普：美国不寻求停火，而是要求伊朗没有核或器。与伊朗谈判的大门仍然敞开。认为伊朗仅需 几周就能获得核武。不想卷入中东局势。此前特朗普对是否介入冲突含糊其辞。⑦德国外交消息人士：德法 英外长和欧盟高级外交官周五将在日内瓦与伊朗外长举行核谈判。 ★特朗普重申美联储应降息:应降200 ...

| | | 铁矿 今日盘面震荡。 供应端，全球发运处于旺季，未来存在季末冲量预期，国内到港量阶段下降，根据船期推算未来将出现反 弹，港口库存预计将逐步止降转增，供应压力边际加大。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，钢厂仍有利润，主动减产意愿不强，铁 水产量变化不大，预计短期维持相对高位。宏观层面，国内仍然等待增量政策出台，外部地缘政治风险上升，市场短期不确定 性依然较强。我们预计铁矿走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡上行。铁水小幅回落，整体维持在241，焦炭存在第四轮提降预期，焦化利润有所收缩，焦化日产较年内高位有 所回落，持续性有待观察。焦炭整体库存小幅下降，贸易商采购意愿依旧较低。整体来看，碳元素供应端切较充裕，下游铁水 稳定在241以上，关税依旧对行情产生影响，受原油价格大幅上涨影响，焦煤价格有所反弹。焦炭盘面基本平水，在库存压力 下，焦炭价格一定程度上受到原油带动。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 ...

地缘局势和经贸谈判关键窗口期，联储再度短期观望 ——2025 年 6 月份美联储议息会议点评 国投期货研究院 朱赫 期货投资咨询号 Z0015192 靳顺柔子 期货投资咨询号 Z0014424 事件：货币政策方面，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25% 至 4.50%，符合会议前的市场预期。总的来看，尽管声明上美联储指出了近期关税的"不 确定性"，且"滞胀"的风险有所降低，但在点阵图上又传递了关于今年降息门槛更高 的信号，因此两方面因素共同作用下仍然是一个中性的信号，和此前美联储的观望状态 变化不大。美股冲高回落整体呈现震荡格局，美债价格亦冲高回落，中概股收跌，原油 和黄金主要还是根据伊以局势的发展总体呈现小幅震荡回调。 点评： 一、会前关注点：观望立场开始松动？ 在 5 月份的议息会议上，美联储决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场预期。会议声明偏中性，美联储在此次决议中表示出观望态度，警示了 关税带来的潜在的滞胀风险，并再次明确了"不确定性增加"，同时重申不急于采取先 发制人的决策。目前 Fed Watch 数据显示 6 月议息会议大概率维持利率不变。 ...

周四沪铜收低,伦铜再次测试MA20日均线,若失守价格短线将再回9500美元。国内现铜报78680元,上海升水缩 至145元，周内社库减少1800吨至14.59万吨。隔夜美联储维持利率不变，继续下调经济增速预期。空头持有。 (铝&氧化铝) 今日沪铝小幅回落，华东现货升水收窄10元至180元。今日铝锭社库较周一下降0.9万吨，铝棒增加0.3万吨。近 期低库存状态造成Back结构加深短期有利于多头，指数持仓激增至60万手以上警惕资金转向。下游开工持续走 弱,预计现货价格向上空间有限,关注负反馈能否在库存上兑现以及月差收窄后的盘面洁空机会。铸造铝合金 期货盘面小幅上涨，保太ADC12报价回落100元至19600元，旺季合约出现一定升水。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩 大至千元以上，但盘面AL2511与AD2511价差仅在400元左右，如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。近期氧化铝现货成交 稀少,各地指数价格持续回落至3200元以下,几内亚矿石在75美元趋稳对应山西成本在3000元附近。行业利润 修复后国内运行产能连续四周回升至9200万吨以上,过剩压力下期货贴水如继续修复考虑反弹治空参与。 【锌】 6月13日当周LME锌投资基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and the spread of SC over Brent is expected to rise [1]. - Precious metals are recommended to be on the sidelines due to the repeated risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - Short positions in copper are recommended to be held [3]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, consider taking a long position in AD and a short position in AL when the spread widens [5]. - For alumina, consider short - selling on rebounds if the futures discount continues to repair [6]. - For zinc, short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Short positions in nickel are recommended to be held [9]. - A small number of short positions in far - month tin contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main trend remaining bearish [12]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly downward trend [13]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate [15]. - The upward space of coke and coking coal prices should not be overly optimistic [16][17]. - The price of manganese silicon is still under pressure [18]. - For ferrosilicon, observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [20]. - The cracking of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be under pressure [21]. - For asphalt, wait for the layout opportunity after the risk of geopolitical premium of crude oil is removed [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. - The urea futures market remains strong, but be wary of the tightening of export policies [24]. - For methanol, closely monitor relevant data and be wary of a high - level decline in the market if the conflict eases [25]. - For styrene, the price is mainly guided by oil prices, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [26]. - For polypropylene and polyethylene, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement [27]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and caustic soda is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX and PTA are strong in the short term but have potential risks in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene glycol is bullish in the short term and expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [30]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the short - fiber supply - demand is improving, while the bottle - chip has potential for processing margin repair but with caution [31]. - Glass is recommended to be operated with caution due to the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern [32]. - For natural rubber and its related products, the strategy is to be bullish [33]. - Soda ash is recommended to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [34]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - For vegetable oils, a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - For soybeans No.1, pay attention to weather guidance [38]. - Corn futures are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the weight - reduction rhythm of large farms [40]. - Egg prices are considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - For cotton, the operation strategy is to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43]. - For apples, wait and see and pay attention to bagging data [44]. - For wood, wait and see due to the weak price [45]. - For pulp, wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. - For stock indices, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the subsequent development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices oscillated. Brent 08 contract fell 1.44%, while SC08 contract rose 2.1%. The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the US may directly intervene. European officials will hold nuclear negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister. Supply risks remain before the US confirms participation. Last week, US DOE crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 1.1473 billion barrels due to increased net exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oil prices rise due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil - related futures follow suit but with smaller increases. The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for shipping and power generation is affected by high cracking valuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rise, and asphalt follows. The increase in asphalt production is limited. The shipments of 54 sample refineries are increasing, and terminal demand is expected to improve. Current inventory is declining, but the BU cracking is under pressure before the geopolitical risk of oil prices is removed [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. Domestic chemical demand is recovering, but there is pressure on margins due to rising import costs. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure may lead to a decline. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the dot - plot shows a split on rate - cut expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict intensifies, and risk - aversion sentiment is repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the change in US copper tariff premium. The Fed maintained interest rates and lowered economic growth expectations. Short positions are recommended to be held [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum oscillated. The low - inventory situation deepens the Back structure, which is beneficial to long positions in the short term. However, downstream开工 is weakening, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [4]. - **Zinc**: The actual delivery of SHFE zinc 06 contract was 8,675 tons, and the 07 contract has a high position. The supply - demand in June is weak. Short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The high inventory of the outer market may open the import window. The market rumor of Tianneng's production cut led to a decline in SHFE lead. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel declined. The upstream price support weakened, and inventory increased. It is in a bearish trend, and short positions are recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the import of tin concentrates in May. A small number of short positions in far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is in the peak season, and port inventory is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated upward, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. Coking coal prices oscillated narrowly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the upward space of prices is limited [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices oscillated downward, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure. Ferrosilicon prices oscillated, and the supply - demand contradiction is small. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18][19]. - **Steel**: Night - session steel prices rose first and then fell. The off - season demand for rebar is weakening, and the inventory reduction slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, but inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: Iranian methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases. However, port inventory is low, and the expected rapid inventory build - up is likely to fail. The market is excited, but be wary of a decline if the conflict eases [25]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks lead to large oil - price fluctuations, which guide styrene prices. The supply of styrene increases, and the demand maintains a rigid support [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Geopolitical risks drive the polyolefin market. The demand for polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement. Polypropylene is also in the off - season, and the supply pressure increases [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA opened high and then fell. The polyester filament sales are weak, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol fluctuated overnight. The supply is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and the industry supply - demand is slightly weakening. There are plans for large - scale plant maintenance, which may support the price [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Israel - Iran conflict affects oil prices and soybean meal. The US soybean good - rate is slightly lower than expected, and weather is favorable for growth. Pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Vegetable oil prices are rising, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips due to the development of biodiesel [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of external factors is not fully digested. The risk of dry weather in North America adds a weather premium. The short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak overnight. The substitution of wheat for corn exists, and inventory is going through destocking. The futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Live Pigs**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and the policy aims to stabilize prices. However, there is still pressure on pig supply in the later stage [40]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price is stable. There is short - term support from demand, but it is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton good - rate decreased, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is average, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, ICE sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data is bearish. Domestic sugar imports are low, and inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. Market demand is declining, and the focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price oscillated. The import volume of radiata pine is expected to be low in June, and demand is relatively good in the off - season. Inventory is going through destocking, but the price is weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp futures price rose slightly. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The price is low, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. Financials - **Stock Indices**: A - shares oscillated narrowly. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the geopolitical situation is tense. Pay attention to investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the development of macro - factors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond market oscillated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The consumer goods trade - in policy is ongoing, and the bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [48].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强，中美谈判别好对于价格有所提振，但具体细节仍有待观察。纯棉纱成 交依旧偏清淡，主要淡季行情下下游需求仍旧不足，市场信心弱，看涨情绪不高。从目前中美谈判情况来看，虽然表态比较积 极，但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨，环比减少 69.39万吨，同比减少31.54万吨，棉花消化仍然偏好。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，探化降2万吨。操作 上暂时观望或逢低轻仓做多。 | | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月18日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F02 ...