| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 | | | 今日盘面继续震荡反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步下降，库存延续去化态势。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍 有待缓解。 轶水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大, 关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从11月统计数据看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward/downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating rules [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are diverse, with different trends and influencing factors for each metal. Some metals are in a state of price adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper's open interest dropped to the MA10 moving average. The current copper price was 91,700 yuan, with a 125 - yuan discount in Shanghai and a 150 - yuan premium in Guangdong. The adjustment range may expand to the integer level if the open interest drops below 600,000 lots. It's recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widening. The medium - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is still oscillating upward, but short - term support at the 40 - day line should be watched. The price of Baotai ADC12 dropped by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, and the spot price is more likely to fall [3] Zinc - The LME zinc's term structure changed, with the 0 - 3 - month spot shifting from premium to a 31.61 - dollar discount per ton. There is a phased cross - market reverse arbitrage space. The decline of Shanghai zinc is expected to be less than that of the outer market, and support is seen at 22,800 yuan per ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel dropped to a new low for the year. Stainless - steel spot trading was extremely light, and prices generally declined. With inventory accumulation and提货 pressure, the "price - for - volume" strategy has limited de - stocking effects. It's advisable to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin's open interest decreased, and the price decline reached the MA10 moving average. The domestic spot tin price dropped by 3,600 yuan to 320,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the open - interest reduction range and the MA10 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is oscillating at a high level. The overall inventory has decreased. The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong, putting short - sellers at a disadvantage [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is weak, with the price dropping near the northwest cost line. There is an expectation of production reduction in the northwest due to weather and pollution. Before actual production reduction, it will maintain a low - level oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose to 60,000 yuan per ton during the day and then gave back some gains. The spot price is stable. There is an expectation of a significant price increase, but it has not been confirmed. It is in a game between strong policy - driven clearing expectations and weak reality, with a high - level oscillation trend [11]

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年12月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | なな☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【大豆&豆粕】 近期南美天气持续好转,拉尼娜影响暂时未显现。大连豆粕跟随美豆震荡偏强。国内方面,上周进口大豆和豆 箱库存均有所下降。大连豆粕期货价格呈现出近强运弱格局,近月合约延续进口大豆通关进度放缓逻辑，表现 相对更强。美豆期货价格已回落至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities remained basically unchanged this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of non - ferrous and agricultural products decreased. The precious metals sector was relatively strong, and the agricultural and chemical sectors were relatively weak. The internal differentiation of the agricultural products sector widened [2]. - For different commodities, the performance of various factors and comprehensive signals varied. For example, in methanol, the demand factor weakened, the inventory factor increased, and the synthetic factor strengthened, with a bullish comprehensive signal this week. In iron ore, the comprehensive signal changed from bearish to neutral, and different fundamental factors had different trends [4][13]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No information about industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Strategy Net Value: The demand factor weakened by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.05%. The comprehensive signal this week was bullish. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of imported methanol decreased, with a slightly bullish supply; the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefin enterprises decreased, and the acetic acid device operation increased, with a neutral demand; methanol ports and inland areas both destocked last week, with a bullish inventory; the bullish strength of the methanol regional spread factor weakened, with a neutral spread [4]. Iron Ore - Strategy Net Value: The supply factor decreased by 0.08%, the inventory factor increased by 0.67%, and the comprehensive factor strengthened by 0.2%. The comprehensive signal changed from bearish to neutral this week. - Fundamental Factors: Shipments from BHP and Vale increased, and the arrival volume at northern ports rose, with a weakening bullish feedback on the supply side and a neutral signal; the consumption of sintering ore powder by steel mills and the daily port clearance volume both increased slightly, with an enhanced bullish feedback on the demand side and a bullish signal; the inventory of sintering ore powder in steel mills accumulated, and the average available days of imported iron ore increased, with an enhanced bearish signal on the inventory side; the freight rate decreased, and the spot price center moved down, with an enhanced bearish feedback on the spread side and a neutral signal [10][13]. Aluminum - Strategy Net Value: The demand factor strengthened by 0.38, the inventory factor decreased by 0.13%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.45%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.18%. The comprehensive signal remained bearish this week. - Fundamental Factors: The spot price of silver increased, and the supply - side signal changed from neutral to bearish; the LME lead and SHFE warehouse receipts both accumulated, with an enhanced bearish feedback on the inventory side and a neutral signal; the lead refined - scrap price spread narrowed, and the bearish signal strength of the spread side weakened [13]. Float Glass - Strategy Net Value: The supply factor decreased by 0.46%, the demand factor weakened by 0.49%, the profit factor strengthened by 1.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%. The comprehensive signal was bearish this week. - Fundamental Factors: The operating rate of float glass enterprises remained the same as last week, with a neutral supply; the inventory of glass production enterprises continued to decrease, with an increased bullish strength on the inventory side; the spot price of Hubei glass released a bearish signal, with a bearish spread; the daily after - tax gross profit loss of pipeline - gas - made float glass intensified, with a continued bearish profit [15]. 4. Factor Performance and Returns Overall Factor Returns | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | This Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.00 (in some cases - 0.46, - 0.08) | Ranging from - 0.36 to 0.56 | | Demand | - 0.07 (in some cases - 0.49) | Ranging from - 0.88 to 1.25 | | Inventory | 0.12 (in some cases 0.00, 0.67) | Ranging from - 0.21 to 1.45 | | Spread | 0.00 | Ranging from - 0.26 to 0.82 | | Profit | 1.07 | 1.82 | | Grand Total | 0.05 (in some cases - 0.32, 0.20) | Ranging from - 0.36 to 0.72 |[3][7][10] Factor Performance by Sector | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Products | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 |[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

2025-12-15 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现先跌后涨的震荡走势，大多数指数略微收 涨，其中创业板指数领涨，周度涨幅达 2.74%。板块方面，通信和 国防军工等行业板块表现突出，周度涨幅分别为 6.27%和 2.80%； 煤炭和石油石化等板块走势偏弱，周度跌幅分别约为 3.64%和 3.52%。上周市场的焦点集中在国内重要会议与美联储的表态上。 近期召开的政治局会议和经济工作会议均强调明年经济工作要坚 持"稳中求进，提质增效"。宏观政策基调整体偏积极，更注重经 济结构平衡与产业升级。美联储在议息会议上表示将通过扩大资 产负债表来维稳美元流动性，此举在一定程度上抑制了美元走势。 总体来看，美元走弱支撑股指震荡偏强，但市场若要开启趋势性 上涨，仍有待国内经济政策的进一步细化与落地。预计短期国内 市场或延续震荡偏强格局，继续继续关注美元流动性变化以及国 内政策的具体落地。 ⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，各品种金融期权隐波（IV）继续下降，均处 于年内较低水平。其中科创 50 期权隐波降幅最深，达 8.66%。当 前科创 50 期权（IV=23%）和创业板指期权（IV=23%）隐波已回落 至近一年中位数以下。 50 ...

地产月月览：2025年1-11月 �� 国投期货 黑金研投团队 2025/12/15 11月单月增速 10月单月增速 主要指标 累计值 累计同比 1-10月增速 2024全年增速 开发投资完成额 (亿元) 78591 -15.9% -30.3% -23.0% -14.7% -10.6% 房屋新开工面积 (万平米) 53457 -20.5% -27.6% -29.5% -19.8% -23.0% 商品房销售面积（万平米） 78702 -7.8% -17.3% -18.8% -6.8% -12.9% 房屋施工面积（万平米） 656066 -9.6% -9.4% -12.7% 房屋竣工面积 (万平米) 39454 -18.0% -25.5% -16.9% -28.2% -27.7% 数据简评：从11月数据看，房地产市场整体依然疲弱，主要指标继续大幅下滑，投资降幅持续扩大，关注后续政策变化及市场内生动能修复情况, 房屋施工面积增速($) 房地产开发投资增速(%) 房屋新开工面积增速(*) 商品房销售面积增速(*) 累计同比 单月同比 20 累计同比 电月同比 器计同比 单月同比 累计同比 1( 30 0 o 0 -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the price, price change, implied volatility (IV) data, and related quantile information of various ETFs and indexes over a 7 - day period from December 11 - 15, 2025, along with historical data on price, IV, skew index, and other aspects, aiming to help investors understand the market conditions and volatility characteristics of these financial products [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price fluctuated, with a - 0.38% drop on the 11th, a 0.45% increase on the 12th, and a - 0.03% drop on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 11.63% on the 11th to 11.04% on the 12th and then rose to 11.49% on the 15th [1]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 9.70%, 4.00%, 7.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 8.50%, 3.60%, 7.30% [1]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 98.60 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.72% on the 11th, increased by 0.56% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.58% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 12.70% on the 12th and then rose to 13.17% on the 15th [3]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 28.50%, 9.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.20%, 11.00% [3]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.37 [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.73% on the 11th, increased by 0.55% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.52% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.86% on the 11th to 13.14% on the 12th and then rose to 13.66% on the 15th [6]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 20.40%, 12.20%, 16.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.50%, 14.10%, 21.40% [6]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.33 [11]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.30% on the 12th, and increased by 0.49% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.52% on the 11th to 15.67% on the 12th and then rose to 15.78% on the 15th [13]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.20%, 15.50%, 17.50%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 17.30%, 11.80%, 12.60% [13]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 110.66 [16]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.77% on the 11th, increased by 1.20% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 16.97% on the 11th to 15.48% on the 12th and then rose to 15.55% on the 15th [20]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 12.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 19.80%, 9.20%, 13.80%, 9.60% [20]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 105.56 [25]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.44% on the 11th, increased by 0.89% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.70% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.11% on the 11th to 23.78% on the 12th and then rose to 24.94% on the 15th [26]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 53.10%, 49.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 60.20%, 51.40%, 61.00% [26]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.91 [30]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.32% on the 11th, increased by 0.58% on the 12th, and decreased by 1.22% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 24.69% on the 11th to 18.19% on the 12th and then to 17.82% on the 15th [34]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 83.60%, 33.80%, 31.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 79.30%, 38.80%, 35.30% [34]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 108.31 [37]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.63% on the 11th, increased by 1.87% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.05% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 25.66% on the 11th to 24.11% on the 12th and then rose to 25.41% on the 15th [43]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 31.40%, 42.10%, 39.60%, 54.70%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 23.60%, 29.40%, 36.70%, 52.40% [43]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 99.79 [45]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.53% on the 11th, increased by 1.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 2.11% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 26.48% on the 11th to 23.94% on the 12th and then rose to 26.69% on the 15th [48]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 26.10%, 30.20%, 33.30%, 49.80%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 38.30%, 46.00%, 33.30%, 49.20% [48]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 100.71 [54]. 3.10 300 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.86% on the 11th, increased by 0.63% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.63% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 13.38% on the 11th to 11.78% on the 12th and then rose to 12.03% on the 15th [60]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 25.70%, 7.30%, 10.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 22.60%, 5.10% [60]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 107.95 [65]. 3.11 1000 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 1.30% on the 11th, increased by 0.81% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.84% on the 15th. The IV data was not available [66]. - **IV quantiles**: All IV quantile data was not available [66]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 125.24 [71]. 3.12 SSE 50 Index - **7 - day data**: From December 11 - 15, 2025, the price decreased by 0.39% on the 11th, increased by 0.59% on the 12th, and decreased by 0.25% on the 15th. The monthly IV decreased from 12.19% on the 11th to 10.54% on the 12th and then to 9.88% on the 15th [72]. - **IV quantiles**: The near - 1 - year monthly IV quantiles were 12.60%, 1.60%, and the near - 2 - year monthly IV quantiles were 11.20%, 1.00%, 0.20% [72]. - **Skew index**: The skew index on December 15, 2025, was 112.40 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to strengthen. After the Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying, the easing trade is expected to continue. Attention is paid to this week's US November non - farm and CPI data [1] - Short - term silver hit a new high, and gold is approaching the October high. If the resistance is broken, precious metals may remain strong. Platinum and palladium hit new highs, and long - term allocation is clear [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Fed's Policy and Officials' Views - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, announced to buy $40 billion short - term bonds in the next 30 days. There were internal differences, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years [1] - Powell said the risk of employment decline increased, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The meeting was overall neutral, and restarting bond - buying was earlier than expected [1] - After the meeting, several officials still expressed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. Last week's employment data was mixed, with the number of job openings in October increasing to 7.67 million and the weekly initial jobless claims increasing by 44,000 to 236,000 [1] - Goolsbee: Wait for more data before cutting rates, and expect more rate cuts in 2026 than the median; Schmid: Inflation is still too high, and a moderately restrictive monetary policy should be maintained; Paulson: More concerned about employment risks, and the monetary policy is restrictive; Harker: Tend to adopt a slightly more restrictive policy stance [2] Market Performance of Precious Metals - Short - term silver continued to hit a new high, showing strong financial attributes and tight spot supply under the enhanced expectation of Fed's rate cut. Gold rose to near the October high [1] - Platinum and palladium prices hit new highs on Monday, with the outer market breaking through the previous high and accelerating. They follow the bull market of precious metals, are favored by long - term funds, and have macro premium and potential demand from the commercial space and hydrogen sectors [1] Other News - Trump prefers to choose former Fed governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett as the next Fed chairman [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed to give up joining NATO during a five - hour talk in Berlin. The US envoy said the talks made "significant progress" but did not disclose details [2]