Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA is in a production hiatus, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain. PTA may have a recovery expectation after its processing fee hits a recent low. The supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - In 2026, ethylene glycol (MEG) faces significant production pressure. Potential capacity and high overseas supply pose risks to the market. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of MEG is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - In 2026, due to the continued slowdown of global economic growth, domestic demand is weak and requires more policy support. Exports may continue to be mainly for rigid demand. Despite the pressure on terminal exports, polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices. The new supply pressure of bottle chips in 2026 is not large, but the capacity of existing devices is still high. Overall profit may have an improvement expectation, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **PTA**: In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The market price declined due to seasonal inventory accumulation and tariff increases. The new device put into operation in the second half of the year put pressure on the market, and the main contract price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. Three new devices were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 7.1%, and the cumulative output was expected to be 7390 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [19][23]. - **MEG**: In 2025, the futures price of ethylene glycol showed a phased downward trend. Three new devices with a total of 170 tons were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 3.7%. The cumulative output was expected to be 2080 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [23]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2025, the domestic sales growth of textile and apparel was slow. Exports were volatile, with a significant decline in exports to the US. The polyester segment had good production but poor profits due to raw materials and demand. The cumulative new capacity of polyester in the whole year was expected to be 446 tons, and the cumulative output from January to December was expected to be 7990 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 6.8% [24]. 2. PTA: More Maintenance under Low Processing Fees, with Expectation of Supply - Demand Improvement - **Raw Material End**: From 2024 - 2025, there was no new PX production capacity. The average operating rate in 2025 was 82.8%, and the estimated output was 3.84 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In 2026, new production capacity is mainly planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain [30][37]. - **Processing Fee**: In 2025, the average spot processing fee of PTA was only 262 yuan/ton, the lowest in recent years. In the second half of the year, the processing fee fell below 200 yuan/ton, leading to more maintenance [39][45]. - **Export**: In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports totaled 3.096 million tons. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to exports, but the future new production capacity in India may affect exports [45]. - **2026 Outlook**: There is no new PTA production plan in 2026. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fees to recover [47]. 3. MEG: Supply Pressure is Prominent - **Actual Supply Increase**: In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly twice, and the end - of - year futures price hit a five - year low. The actual output increased significantly. The proportion of naphtha - based MEG is still about half, and the proportion of coal - based ethylene glycol is about 36% [50]. - **Cash Flow and Operating Rate**: In 2025, the average cash flow of naphtha - based MEG was - 120 US dollars/ton. The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.6%. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate was relatively high, and the profit situation improved significantly [64][65]. - **Inventory and Import**: In 2025, the main port inventory first increased and then decreased, and then increased again at the end of the year. From January to October, the import volume was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The overseas supply is generally abundant, and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level [70]. - **Future New Production**: From 2026, the planned production capacity of ethylene glycol will increase again. The future supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread between PTA - MEG [72][73]. 4. Demand: Polyester Shows Resilience, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the Terminal - **Polyester Growth**: In 2025, it is expected that a total of 4.46 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be put into operation. The average operating load for the whole year reached 90%. The expected output for the whole year was about 79.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2026, the planned new polyester production capacity is 5 - 6 million tons, and the output is still expected to reach about 85 million tons [86][100]. - **Staple Fiber**: In 2025, the effective production capacity of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by about 4%, and the output increased by 10.1%. The inventory decreased to a low level, and the average operating rate was 91%. In 2026, the supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase. Pay attention to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices [106][122]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the new production scale of bottle chips narrowed, and the average spot processing fee dropped to a record low of 386 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure was transferred in the third quarter, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the new supply pressure is not large, and the profit may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [125][134]. - **Terminal Market**: In 2025, the domestic demand for textile and apparel improved moderately, and exports were affected by international trade. In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support, and exports may be mainly for rigid demand. Polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to [141][162]. 5. 2026 Market Outlook and Strategies - **PTA**: In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA may see its processing fee recover, and the supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - **MEG**: In 2026, the production pressure of ethylene glycol is large. The inventory may continue to rise at the beginning of the year, improve in the second quarter, and enter the inventory accumulation cycle again in the third and fourth quarters. The supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support. Exports may be mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and the profit of bottle chips may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the valuation repair in the A-share market in 2025, the main driving force in 2026 is expected to shift more towards the substantial improvement of the profit fundamentals. The core logic of this profit recovery lies in the gradual re - balancing of the supply - demand pattern. With the continuous deepening of the "anti - involution" policy and the natural clearing of the production capacity cycle, enterprise profit margins have stabilized first, and asset turnover is also expected to gradually pick up. The moderate recovery of PPI will drive the profit margin repair of the mid - stream manufacturing industry, and the gradual entry of AI technology into the commercial application stage will also promote the accelerated growth of revenues in related industries [3][54]. - The capital side is expected to remain generally abundant, supported by three aspects: the continuous transfer of domestic residents' asset allocation to equity products, the potential return of foreign capital to the A - share market as the external environment stabilizes, and the steady entry of long - term funds such as pensions and insurance funds, which will provide stable liquidity support for the market [3][54]. - Overall, the reasonable level of the valuation side and the positive factors on the capital side will provide strong support for the performance of the A - share market in 2026 [3][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Index Review - Since the beginning of the year, all major domestic stock indices have shown an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index having the largest increase and the Composite Index having the smallest increase. In terms of structure, small and medium - cap indices performed better. As of December 15, the ChiNext Index rose 49.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 36.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 27.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 26.18%. The small and medium - cap 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index rose 25.66%, 25.22%, and 23.72% respectively. In addition, the CSI 300 Index rose 16.42%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.04%, the SSE 50 Index rose 11.54%, and the Composite Index rose 11.29% [10]. - In 2025, the A - share market showed an "N" - shaped upward trend, mainly centered around the triple game of external environment disturbances, internal policy adjustments, and technological industry breakthroughs. It was affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut policy and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches from risk aversion to confidence repair, then to trend - up and structural digestion [12]. 3.1.2 Sector Review - In the first half of 2025, most sectors showed an upward trend. As of December 15, among the primary industries, the materials and information technology sectors led the gains, with annual increases of 47.22% and 44.03% respectively. The industrial sector rose 27.32%, the communication services sector rose 20.30%, the healthcare sector rose 16.22%, and the optional consumer sector rose 14.48%. The annual increases of the finance, energy, utilities, and real estate sectors were all less than about 10%. The only sector that declined was the daily consumer sector, which fell 1.68% [17]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Review - The overall trend of stock index futures in 2025 was consistent with the index market, showing an "N" - shaped trend. As of December 15, the SSE 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 Index rose 12.60%, 20.21%, 38.61%, and 39.66% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. In terms of trading volume, the average annual daily trading volumes of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 35,000 lots, 70,000 lots, 63,000 lots, and 147,000 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, the average annual daily open interests of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 56,000 lots, 143,000 lots, 105,000 lots, and 175,000 lots respectively [19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Economic Progress - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's economic growth rate showed a pattern of high at the beginning and stable later. The GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the full - year growth rate of the previous year [22][27]. - **PMI Data**: Since the beginning of the year, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI have fluctuated around the boom - bust line (50). In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points but remaining below the boom - bust line. The service industry index in November was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [30]. - **Inflation Data**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall price level has shown a pattern of low - level CPI fluctuations and continuous negative PPI growth. However, there are positive structural changes. The core CPI has continued to rise since the second quarter, and the decline of PPI has significantly narrowed since August, showing signs of stabilization [31]. - **Consumption Data**: From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, faster than the same period and the full - year of the previous year. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to decline. Service consumption grew rapidly, and the consumption of cultural and sports services maintained double - digit growth [38][39]. - **Fixed Investment Data**: From January to November, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while project investment excluding real - estate development investment increased by 0.8%. Investment in emerging fields showed good momentum, and investment in some traditional industries also expanded. Policy effects continued to appear, and equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 12.2% year - on - year [41]. - **Outlook for the 2026 Economy**: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve "repair - type" growth and structural re - balancing under policy support, showing a "stable at the beginning and rising later" trend. The GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5%, inflation is expected to enter a moderate recovery channel, and policies will focus on boosting consumption [44]. 3.2.2 Macroeconomic Policies Supporting the A - share Market - The "anti - involution" policy will continue to deepen, aiming to optimize the industrial structure and enhance global competitiveness. Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to continue. The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to remain at about 4%, the scale of new special bonds may reach 4.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase to 1.6 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate is expected to be between 7.7% and 8.1%, with possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts of 50 basis points and interest - rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points [46][48]. 3.2.3 Tariff Uncertainty Disturbing the A - share Market - In April 2025, the US announced a series of tariff policies, which led to significant fluctuations in the A - share market in the short term. In the long term, it accelerated the transformation of A - share listed companies in two aspects: diversifying export markets and strengthening the "self - controllable" logic [49][50]. 3.2.4 Overseas Liquidity Loosening Supporting the A - share Market - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points. This has two main impacts on the A - share market: expanding domestic policy space and boosting market risk appetite. However, the medium - and long - term trend of the market still depends on the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals and policy effects [51][52]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, stock index futures were affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and Fed interest - rate cut policy changes and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches [53]. - In 2026, the A - share market is expected to be driven more by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and the capital side is expected to remain abundant, providing strong support for the market [54].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price increases and differentiation, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][65]. - Looking ahead, the reshaping of the global trade pattern has damaged the US dollar's credit, and the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver, with its "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute" triple - drive, is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold [1][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **External and Internal Markets**: Both New York gold and silver and Shanghai gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern in 2025. New York silver and Shanghai silver had greater increases than their gold counterparts. As of December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce with a 52.86% annual increase, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce with a 101.40% increase. Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram with a 52.39% increase, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram with an 88.75% increase [6][7]. - **Five Trading Phases**: The trading logic of the precious metal market in 2025 can be divided into five phases: from January to March, driven by risk - aversion sentiment; from April, affected by tariff policies; from June to September, focused on the repair of the gold - silver ratio and industrial attributes; from September to November, driven by rate - cut expectations; from November onwards, influenced by silver supply - demand relationships [9][10][12][13]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio continued to rise at the beginning of the year and then gradually repaired. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, and the ratios in domestic and foreign markets are gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Fundamentals** - **GDP**: The release of the Q3 2025 US GDP data was postponed. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%, and the Q3 forecasted growth rate was 3.9% [19]. - **PMI**: In November, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.2%, indicating accelerated contraction, while the service PMI was 52.6%, continuing to expand. However, the employment index in both sectors was in a contraction state [23][24]. - **Inflation**: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. In September, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, and PCE and core PCE both increased by 2.8% year - on - year [26][28]. - **Employment**: In September, non - farm employment increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, but subsequent data such as challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims alleviated market concerns [32]. - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, it was driven by economic data and Fed policy expectations, and in the long term, it was affected by fiscal sustainability and global monetary policy differentiation. Overall, the long - term trend may be weak [37][38]. - **Tariff Policy**: Tariff policy changes in 2025 can be divided into four stages: full - scale tariff increases from January to March, the establishment of a "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustments from November to December. The impact of tariffs on precious metal prices weakened in the second half of the year [39][44]. - **Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: The Fed's rate - cut path in 2025 can be divided into three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to employment data, and rate cuts and internal differences becoming public at the end of the year. The rate - cut path in 2026 is uncertain [45][48]. - **Geopolitics**: In 2025, the change in the global geopolitical pattern increased market uncertainty, driving up the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven. Geopolitics will remain a core variable in the precious metal market in 2026 [51][52]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Gold**: In 2025, the global gold supply increased steadily, while the demand side showed significant structural differentiation. Investment demand, including ETFs and central bank purchases, was strong, while high prices suppressed traditional gold jewelry consumption [53][54]. - **Silver**: The silver market in 2025 continued to face a supply - demand imbalance. Supply was rigid due to factors such as mine strikes and limited recycling growth, while demand was driven by both industry (especially photovoltaics) and investment. The World Silver Association estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces for the whole year [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economy and changing trading logic supported precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. The Fed's rate - cut cycle and the weakening US dollar will support precious metal prices. Silver is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold due to its supply - demand situation and multiple attributes [1][65].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the PX market showed characteristics of "low at first, then stable, and supply-demand tightening". The price was affected by multiple factors in the first half and returned to a strong fundamental in the second half. The market shifted from high inventory to a tight balance, supporting price rebound [1][147]. - The pure benzene market in 2025 presented a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and profit pressure". The price of the newly - listed futures first rose and then fell, with a significant downward shift in the price center at home and abroad [1][148]. - The styrene market in 2025 was significantly influenced by cost - side price decline and macro - policies. The basis widened in the second quarter and then converged, and the industry profit was generally poor [2][149]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX 2025 Market Review - **PX Main Contract Situation**: The PX futures market in 2025 had four stages. The price fluctuated and declined in the first quarter, dropped sharply due to tariff policies in the second quarter, continued to fluctuate in summer, and rebounded at the end of the year. The basis showed different trends in different periods [9]. - **PX Spot Price and Operation Situation**: The PX spot price also had four stages. It was low and fluctuating in the first quarter, dropped sharply and then rebounded in the second quarter, fluctuated in the third quarter, and rose in the fourth quarter. The domestic PX operation rate decreased in the first half and increased in the second half [12]. - **PX Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The annual PX import volume was about 9.84 million tons, similar to 2024. The estimated annual output was about 37.908 million tons, and the import dependence was below 20%. The downstream demand was about 48.305 million tons, an increase from 2024. The social inventory decreased continuously to 2.155 million tons at the end of the year [23][26]. - **PX 2026 Planned Production Situation**: In 2026, there are plans to put into production 3.5 million tons of PX. The overall supply - demand pattern will continue to be tight, supporting the price [39]. 3.2 Processing Margin Situation - The cracking spread in 2025 showed a pattern of "low at first, then stable". The BZ - N processing margin was continuously compressed, the PX - N spread fluctuated between $200 - 300 per ton, and the PX - MX spread was above $100 per ton in the fourth quarter [44][46]. 3.3 Pure Benzene 2025 Market Review - **Pure Benzene Main Contract Situation**: The pure benzene futures first rose and then fell after listing in July 2025. The price was under pressure due to weak supply - demand on the spot side, high port inventory, and other factors [56]. - **Pure Benzene Spot Price Situation at Home and Abroad**: The prices in Asia, America, and Europe dropped significantly in 2025. The Asian market was affected by US tariff policies, and the domestic East China spot price also declined continuously [61]. - **Pure Benzene Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The total domestic pure benzene production capacity reached 27.716 million tons in 2025, and the total output was estimated to be 26.4308 million tons. The demand was estimated to be 31.1864 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. The inventory situation was relatively complex, and the overall supply was loose [66]. - **Pure Benzene Operation Profit and 2026 Planned Production Situation**: The profit level and operation rate of the domestic pure benzene industry weakened in 2025. In 2026, it is expected that there will be 2.208 million tons of new production capacity, which will intensify the supply - surplus pressure [75][78]. 3.4 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil Situation - In 2025, the disproportionation and blending - for - oil profits of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain were poor. The blending - for - oil spread was "not prosperous in the peak season" in summer and rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter. The toluene disproportionation was in a loss state [85]. 3.5 Styrene 2025 Market Review - **Styrene Main Contract Situation**: The styrene futures market in 2025 had four stages. The price fluctuated and declined in the first stage, rose and then fell in the second stage, entered a weak period in summer, and showed a weak - to - strong trend in the fourth quarter. The basis widened in the second quarter and then converged [100]. - **Raw Material Ethylene and Styrene Spot Price Situation**: The ethylene price weakened in 2025, and it was difficult to provide strong support for styrene. The styrene international market price was high at first and then low, and the overall center of gravity moved down [106][112]. - **Styrene Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The domestic styrene supply changed from "both supply and demand increasing" to a tight balance in the first half, then to a loose balance in the third quarter, and finally to a supply - less - than - demand situation at the end of the year. The port inventory showed an "M" - shaped fluctuation [117][124]. - **Styrene 2026 Planned Production Situation**: In 2025, the domestic styrene total production capacity increased to 23.577 million tons, and the output was estimated to be 17.904 million tons. In 2026, there are still plans for new production capacity [132]. 3.6 Main Downstream Operation Situation of Styrene - The prices of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) of styrene declined significantly in 2025. The profits were in theoretical losses at some stages, and the operation rates showed a step - by - step decline. The overall terminal demand was weak [136]. 3.7 Summary and 2026 Outlook - **PX Outlook**: In 2026, the cost side may oscillate at a low level in the first half of the year, and the PX market may rebound during the maintenance season in the second quarter. It is still a variety with relatively strong supply - demand performance in aromatics [147]. - **Pure Benzene Outlook**: In 2026, the pure benzene market is expected to remain loose. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change, but there is a possibility of improvement in the second - quarter supply - demand structure [149]. - **Styrene Outlook**: In 2026, new devices may force old - fashioned devices to reduce loads or stop production. The turning point may occur in the spring maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy - related news [150].

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 供需偏弱，双焦持续走弱 双焦周报 20251215 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率85.31%（-0.28%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量75万吨（-0.37），314家洗煤 厂产能利用率38.21%（+1.68%），精煤日均产量27.92万吨（+0.8），矿山开工率和矿山精煤日均产量环比继续回 落，洗煤厂产能利用率和精煤产量小幅回升。进口煤方面，上周甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量小幅回落维持高位，整 体供应恢复缓慢。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量229.2万吨（-3.1），高炉开工率78.63%（-1.53%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.82天（-0.06），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数13.2天（+0.52），钢厂高炉开工率和铁水日均产量持续下 滑，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数微降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数回升，需求持续走弱，下游采购意愿低 ...

平台公司提振，多晶硅偏强震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251215 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格偏弱。截至2025年12月12日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周下跌100元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约大幅走低，截至12月12日主力合约收8390元/吨。 供应：新疆地区因上周新增硅炉产量释放，目前硅价低位北方大厂有协商自律意愿，且冬季空气污染多发，石河子重 污染天气预警对硅企生产有所影响，关注开工变化情况；云南地区开工维持低位；四川地区在产硅企季节性减产，在 产硅企稀少。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，周内有部分粉单订单招标；有机硅开工小幅下降，下游持稳为主；铝合金企业开工 率小幅下降，重庆地区因天气污染有减产。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月11日工业硅全国社会库存共计56.1万吨，较上周增加0.3万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供需偏弱，高库存去 ...

需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：需求淡季，钢价震荡承压 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为178.78万吨（-10.53），热轧当周产量为308.71万吨（-5.6）。钢厂检修增加，钢材产 量下降。 （2） 需求： 钢材需求季节性偏弱。上周螺纹表观需求为203.09万吨（-13.89），热轧表观需求311.97万吨(-2.89）。 （3）库存： 螺纹钢维持去库，幅度放缓。螺纹钢总库存479.5万吨(-24.31），社会库存338.7万吨(-22.43)，钢厂库存140.8万吨 (-1.88); 钢材周报 20251215 热卷小幅去库，厂库累积。热轧总库存397.09万吨(-3.26),社会库存万吨(-7.37)，钢厂库存万吨(+4.11)。 （4）基差：基差走强，螺纹主力合约基差210元/吨（+77），热卷主力合约基差8元/吨（+28） （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比下降0.43%; 铁水产量229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。 高炉开工率7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (December 1st - 5th), the oil and fat sector showed a divergent trend. Palm oil and soybean oil rebounded in a volatile manner, while rapeseed oil trended weakly in a volatile way. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to supply - demand pressure; soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with uncertainties; rapeseed oil will trend weakly in the short - term, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply shortage [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased, with MPOA showing a 4.38% month - on - month decrease in production from November 1st - 30th. Export was weak, with ITS data showing a 19.7% month - on - month decline in November exports, AmSpec showing a 15.89% decrease, and SGS showing a 39.21% decrease. November inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders, and there is an expectation of resuming palm oil procurement, causing palm oil to rise in a volatile manner [4] Soybean Oil - China's import of US soybeans slowed down as US soybean prices are higher than Brazilian soybeans. As of Friday, 462,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China, and the confirmed sales since the end of October reached 2.7 million tons, accounting for 22.5% of the 12 million - ton procurement target. The US EIA indicated that the use of soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025 was 1.053 billion pounds, higher than that in August, strengthening the market's expectation of continuous increase in future soybean oil use [4] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: This week, 4 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, with all ship dates spanning from December to January, and no new cancellations. Due to mainly rigid domestic demand, the palm oil purchase volume is low. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 205.58 tons, with an operating rate of 56.55%, a 6.59% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level. The soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease. The domestic soybean port inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Pay attention to the crushing situation in December after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] Demand - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 700 tons, a 7,900 - ton month - on - month decrease, with mainly rigid domestic demand. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 136,900 tons, a 61,500 - ton month - on - month increase, but the demand is still weak. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 5th, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 220 tons, a 10 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [7] Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. - Soybean oil: As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 1.34% decrease, but the inventory still has pressure. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 4.98% decrease. The rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, and the supply is tight [8] Cost and Profit - As of December 5th, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,049/ton; the import cost price was 8,864 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [9] 3. Conclusion Palm Oil - Recently, the precipitation in Southeast Asia has increased, and Malaysia and Indonesia have experienced floods. Malaysian palm oil production has decreased, but Indonesia said the floods have not had a significant impact on production. Exports are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation. Indonesia has lowered the export tariff in December to increase competitiveness. Pay attention to the MPOB report. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Soybean Oil - China's procurement of US soybeans has slowed down. Domestically, the soybean arrival volume has increased significantly, the soybean supply is loose, the oil mill operating rate has decreased but is still at a high level, the soybean crushing volume is still high, the soybean oil production has decreased month - on - month, the soybean oil inventory has decreased but still has pressure, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the domestic inventory reduction rhythm, and the US biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It will fluctuate in the short - term [12] Rapeseed Oil - China still maintains the anti - dumping policy against Canada, and the China - Canada relationship has not progressed. The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, the oil mills are shut down, the rapeseed oil production is 0, and the inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil have changed little. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds may relieve the tight supply of rapeseed oil. Pay attention to the crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It will trend weakly in a volatile way in the short - term [12] 4. Spot Prices - As of December 5th, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8,570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,740 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase. - The spot price of Nantong Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,870 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease [14] 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data Production - In October 2025, affected by the increase in working days and favorable weather, the Malaysian palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula was 1.1171 million tons, a 6.56% month - on - month increase; the production in Sarawak was 481,200 tons, a 14.65% month - on - month increase; the production in Sabah was 445,600 tons, a 19.50% month - on - month increase [16] Inventory - In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it is at a high level compared to the same period [17] Export - In October, the Malaysian palm oil export volume was 1.6929 million tons, an 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] Consumption - The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 6. Indian Palm Oil Import - In October, India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil, a 226,600 - ton month - on - month decrease, a 27% decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [24] 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data Import and Inventory - As of December 5th, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 30,200 - ton month - on - month increase, a 4.62% increase. In October, the domestic palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, a 70,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the import volume rebounded [27] Consumption - In October, the palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a 23,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is at a low level compared to the same period [30] Import Profit - As of December 5th, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 66 yuan/ton, a 143 - yuan/ton month - on - month increase [33] 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 5th, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 56.55%, the soybean oil production was 390,000 tons, a 27,500 - ton month - on - month decrease, and it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.163 million tons, a 15,800 - ton month - on - month decrease, but the inventory still has pressure [35][36] 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 5th, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a 18,200 - ton month - on - month decrease, the inventory continued to decline, and it is at a low level compared to the same period. The first shipment of Australian rapeseeds has arrived. Pay attention to the customs clearance and subsequent crushing of Australian rapeseeds [38]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market last week had a slight increase in supply, a continuous decline in demand, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall coking coal supply was stable while demand was weak, and it remained weakly operational. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The current situation of coke is strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a medium level, and the coke price is still under pressure. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Views Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.59% (-0.42%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 75.37 tons (-1.04). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.53% (+0.21%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.12 tons (+0.54). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 247.01 tons (-2.38), the blast furnace operating rate was 80.16% (-0.93%), and the available days of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants decreased. The demand continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was cautious [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 223.92 tons (+23.09), and the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 321.4 tons (+16.09). The inventory of steel mills and coking plants decreased slightly, and the inventory at major ports increased slightly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 30 yuan/ton (-16). The capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking plants increased, and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills also increased slightly [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline, and the demand support weakened [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 4.68 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The overall social inventory of coke decreased slightly [5]. Part 2: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The content mainly lists some macro - real estate data, including the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry and manufacturing industry, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18] Part 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, and the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, etc., to track the supply and demand of coking coal [21][26][33][36] Part 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, and the coke inventory and available days of inventory in relevant enterprises and ports, etc., to track the supply and demand of coke [62][64][66][70]