Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

研究报告-贵金属专题报告 金融研究院 财富千年不贬值的奥秘 --行情展望 近期相关报告列表： 前三季度，黄金市场呈现"避险拉升—政策缓和 回调—新一轮突破"的阶梯式上行格局。进入四季度 以来，由于美国政府停摆、中美贸易局势、地缘政治 因素等多重因素的博弈之下，波动加大，甚至在 10 月中旬以后一度呈现震荡整理态势。 展望四季度，金价预计将在高位运行，但波动可 能加剧。支撑金价的长期逻辑（去美元化、央行购金） 依然牢固，美联储货币政策转向将是核心驱动变量。 然而，金价已计入较多降息预期，需警惕预期差带来 的调整风险。同时，需密切关注中美关系、地缘政治 等风险事件的演变。白银在工业属性与金银比修复逻 辑下，表现有望强于黄金。 （摘要） 研究员：张天骜 从业资格证：F3002734 投资分析证：Z0012680 助理分析师：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 报告日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 | 1 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1.1 国外 . | | 1.2 国内 . | | 2 美国经济数据 . | | 2.1 GDP 数据 | | 2.2 PMI 指数 b | | 2.3 通胀数据 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply - side contraction due to shrinking profits of domestic zinc smelters and tight ore supply is favorable for zinc prices. The continuous opening of the domestic export window is expected to relieve the high domestic inventory pressure, and zinc may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, after the end of the downstream peak season, the weakening consumption of refined zinc may limit the increase in zinc prices. [1][47][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In October, zinc prices at home and abroad ended the previous downward trend, rebounded after volatile consolidation. In the first and middle of the month, the domestic zinc supply - demand situation weakened, and inventory continued to accumulate. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then trended lower. In the late month, the domestic export window opened, the oversupply of domestic inventory was relieved, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a continuous rise in SHFE zinc. - In November, zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, further compressing the profits of zinc smelting enterprises. Some high - cost enterprises reduced production, intensifying the expectation of supply - side contraction. With domestic supply contraction and the opening of the export window, the domestic inventory pressure is expected to be relieved, but the weakening demand and high domestic inventory may limit the increase in zinc prices. [7] 3.2. Analysis of Zinc Influencing Factors 3.2.1. High - speed Increase in Global Zinc Ore Supply - With the resumption of production of global zinc mines and the ramping - up of new projects, global zinc ore supply increased at a high - speed year - on - year. In August, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In 2025, the main driving force for the increase in global mine production came from the resumption and increase of production of overseas mine projects and new production capacity in Xinjiang, China. - In September, domestic zinc concentrate production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the production of some mines in Anhui and Guizhou was planned to resume, but as domestic mines gradually entered the seasonal supply off - season, the zinc concentrate production continued to decline. Overall, overseas mines are recovering rapidly, with a long - term expectation of global mine oversupply, but currently, domestic ore supply is gradually decreasing. [13][14] 3.2.2. High - level Domestic Zinc Ore Imports - In September 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import of zinc concentrate from January to September was 4.008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. The top three import source countries in September were Australia, Peru, and Oman. - In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased slightly month - on - month, maintaining a high level in recent years. Although the import window for zinc ore was closed in September, the arrival of locked - price and long - term contract zinc ores and strong demand for winter storage led to a continuous import volume. In October, the import window remained closed. Considering the strong demand for winter storage by domestic smelters but unfavorable import ratios, the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. - Due to factors such as increased demand for winter storage by domestic smelters, seasonal production cuts of domestic mines, and expanded losses of imported ores, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have been adjusted downward. [15][16][17] 3.2.3. Gradual Expansion of Global Zinc Supply - demand Surplus - In August 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, and the demand was 1.179 million tons, with a monthly supply - demand surplus of 47,900 tons. From January to August, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 9.1482 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.14%, and the cumulative demand was 8.9683 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.19%. The cumulative global refined zinc supply - demand surplus from January to August was 179,900 tons. [19][22] 3.2.4. Expected Contraction of Domestic Zinc Supply - In October 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 617,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. The cumulative production from January to October increased by 10% year - on - year, lower than expected. In November, with the rapid decline of domestic and imported processing fees, the comprehensive smelting profits of smelters were severely compressed, and some high - cost areas faced the risk of losses. Some smelters in the northwest and central China may actively reduce production in November. - In September 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In October, zinc ingot import losses reached a record high since 2022, severely suppressing imports, while the export window remained open, relieving domestic inventory pressure. [27][28][29] 3.2.5. Downstream Demand Enters the Off - season - In the galvanizing industry, after the holiday, the galvanizing start - up rate rebounded month - on - month but then remained stable. In October, due to the mediocre performance of black metal prices, the consumption of galvanizing was lower than expected, and the start - up rate showed a downward trend. - In the die - casting zinc alloy industry, in early October, the start - up rate declined slightly month - on - month due to the holidays. In the middle of the month, it increased significantly but then weakened. In November, with the arrival of the traditional off - season, orders are expected to be sluggish, and the start - up rate may further decline. - In the zinc oxide industry, the start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises first decreased and then increased in October. Overall, the start - up rate was relatively stable compared with previous years, but the peak - season effect weakened. The demand in traditional fields was weak, and the increase in the start - up rate in the later stage was limited. - From the perspective of zinc terminal industries, the real estate industry remained weak, infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the automobile industry showed good production and sales data. In November, downstream terminal demand entered the off - season, and demand may gradually weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [31][33][37] 3.2.6. Obvious Differentiation of Domestic and Overseas Zinc Inventories - In October, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 33,800 tons at the end of the month. Currently, LME inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. Although LME plans to introduce policies to restrict large near - month positions, overseas spot premiums have fallen from high levels. With the narrowing of domestic export profits, the low - inventory situation overseas may continue. - In October, domestic zinc social inventory continued to rise and then slightly declined from the high level at the end of the month. Currently, the inventory is still at a high level in recent years, with relatively large inventory pressure. In November, as downstream demand enters the off - season and domestic zinc supply is expected to shrink, the domestic inventory pressure may be further relieved. [42][44] 3.3. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, there is great uncertainty in the external environment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting improved market sentiment in the short term, but Trump's policies are still variable. The Fed's interest rate cut with a hawkish stance and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress zinc prices. Domestically, policies form a support. The suggestion to set a production capacity cap for zinc and the "15th Five - Year Plan" boost long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. - On the supply side, global zinc mine supply is growing at a high - speed year - on - year, and the long - term ore supply shortage is easing. However, in the short term, the increase in mine production mainly flows into China, and overseas ore supply remains tight with low inventory. Due to various factors, domestic and overseas zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased, and domestic smelting enterprises' profit compression is expected to lead to supply contraction. The opening of the export window relieves domestic inventory pressure. - On the demand side, the real estate industry remains weak, infrastructure investment declines month - on - month, and the domestic automobile industry grows steadily. However, downstream demand enters the off - season, and demand may further weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [47][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean supply in China will not be in short - supply in Q1 2026. The soybean market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign trade agreements, harvest conditions, and oil - mill operations. The price of soybeans and the inventory of soybean meal are under the influence of multiple factors, with soybeans expected to fluctuate strongly and soybean meal expected to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The DCE Soybean No.1 2601 contract rebounded to around 4140 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4040 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans fluctuated strongly, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The DCE Soybean Meal 01 contract rebounded to around 3060 and then faced pressure for adjustment. The spot price of soybean meal rebounded, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rising from 2910 yuan/ton to around 2970 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, and the futures price maintained a small premium [4]. Supply - Side Factors - **Domestic Harvest**: The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end, with quality differentiation. Northeast soybeans are popular. As of October 31, the remaining grain ratio of Heilongjiang soybeans dropped to 92%, while that of Anhui, Henan, and Shandong increased to 90%, 80%, and 90% respectively [4]. - **Import Situation**: China and the US have reached an agricultural product agreement. China will purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. After the China - US trade agreement, the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and China has additionally ordered 20 ships of Brazilian soybeans, with 10 ships to be shipped in December. Although some enterprises have bought US soybeans, due to high tariffs, large - scale imports are not expected before the tariff reduction. As of October 31, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.885 million tons, a month - on - month decline, and the port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, also a month - on - month decline but still at a high level [5]. - **US Soybean Market**: The US - China soybean import agreement has boosted the price of US soybeans. The US government shutdown has broken the previous record, and the US Department of Agriculture is expected to release the November supply - demand report. The cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariff reduction [5]. Oil - Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly, but the inventory of soybean meal increased again. As of October 31, the operating rate of oil mills was 61.99%, a month - on - month decline; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.108 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The output of soybean meal was 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decline; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1.153 million tons, a month - on - month increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 4.205 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.02 days, a slight month - on - month increase [6]. Demand - Side Factors - The demand for feed is relatively strong. In the breeding industry, the pig price has rebounded from a low level, and the loss of breeding has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the loss was narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.33 yuan per head, and the loss was also narrowing. The adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the inventory of reproductive sows in the country was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. In the poultry industry, the egg price has dropped again, and egg - laying hens are in a loss state, but the inventory in September still increased to a historical high. The demand for feed is strong [6]. Market Outlook - The domestic soybean harvest is coming to an end. With quality differentiation, Northeast soybeans are popular. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient due to imports. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure persists. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, affected by the cost increase of US soybeans and the pressure of increased supply [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment for copper is strong, and copper prices may experience high - level fluctuations. Mid - term macro expectations and spot demand are in conflict, with high uncertainty. [4] 3) Summary by Related Aspects Market Environment - After the Fed's hawkish speech, the market continued to lower the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the market's optimistic sentiment declined, and the US dollar rose to a new high since August on Friday. The non - ferrous metals showed a strong trend. [3] - China's October manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, and China issued a large number of opening - up policies, which improved market sentiment. [3] - The US dollar rose slightly, the RMB soared, and the sharp rise in crude oil and energy drove the non - ferrous metals to rise in the afternoon. [3] Copper Market Performance - Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, while domestic spot copper fell. Today, Shanghai copper closed at 87,300, and the spot price was 87,020. The spot was at a discount of - 280 points to the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 5 points, and spot trading was poor. [3] - The LME spot discount narrowed to - 14 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. [3] - US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, LME copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. [3] - The RMB exchange rate fell sharply this week, the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34 US dollars, and domestic spot demand was poor. [3] - The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 7.97, the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 535 points, and the external price ratio was higher than the domestic one. [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, LME copper rose slightly and traded around 10,900 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly and closed at 87,300, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [4] - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's rate - cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. [4] - In terms of supply and demand, the output of mines in Indonesia and other places has decreased, but the short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot end in the future. [4] Future Concerns - Future concerns include when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's rate - cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve. [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oct 28 | 7.0962 | 1220 | 34.5 | - 24 | 8.03 | | Oct 29 | 7.0968 | - 950 | 34.5 | - 20 | 7.95 | | Oct 30 | 7.1106 | 140 | 35.5 | - 20 | 8.00 | | Oct 31 | 7.1225 | 600 | 35.5 | - 21 | 8.01 | | Nov 3 | 7.1173 | - 280 | 34 | - 14 | 7.97 | [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The current global iron ore shipment volume decreased month-on-month, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a slight decline. Meanwhile, the arrival volume increased significantly, and the domestic iron ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply is relatively loose. On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and profit decline, the molten iron production decreased significantly. As the terminal demand gradually weakens, the future demand will continue to decline. In general, the current iron ore supply and demand are gradually weakening, and the peak season is coming to an end. Coupled with the implementation of macro policies, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of terminal demand. The strategy is to expect range-bound fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price rebounded with fluctuations [6]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded from a low level, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder also rebounded from a low level [12][16]. - The 1-5 spread rebounded slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw-ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore-coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27]. Group 3: Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume of non-mainstream ores fluctuated slightly [33]. - The shipment volume of Australian ore to China and Brazilian ore both decreased slightly [37]. - The shipment volume of FMG to China decreased, while that of BHP increased slightly [42]. - The shipment volume of RT and VALE both increased slightly [46]. - The shipping freight index fluctuated slightly [50]. - The arrival volume increased significantly [54]. - The production of domestic iron ore concentrate changed little [57]. Group 4: Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces continued to weaken [63]. - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the molten iron production decreased significantly [69]. Group 5: Inventory - The port clearance volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [78]. - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore fluctuated at a high level [82]. - The inventory of coarse powder fluctuated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore decreased slightly [88]. - The consumption of steel mills decreased from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore decreased from a low level [96].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals, the PX market showed a "peak season without peak" characteristic. With cost - side rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, it is expected to oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weakening downstream supply - demand expectations [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish. Short - term decline space is limited, but there is still an oversupply expectation in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Styrene market: In the traditional peak season, styrene prices are under pressure. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but high port inventories remain. It is expected to continue its low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The naphtha price is 573 dollars, and the PX CFR price is 816 dollars. The APEC summit and OPEC+ meeting have different impacts on the cost side [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 73.74 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 87.93%, up 1.6% week - on - week. Asian PX capacity utilization is 78.09%, up 0.88% week - on - week [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 78.38%, a 2.40% week - on - week increase and a 2.18% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents PX price trends, production and device status, supply - demand situation, and various spread data [7][9][12][14]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and the spot in East China narrowed and then stabilized [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September 2025, the total supply was 271.2 tons, and the total demand was 259.3 tons. There was a double - reduction in supply and demand, with supply exceeding demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.9 tons, a 10.0% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss state, while aniline still has profits and the margin is slightly expanding [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract has been weakly oscillating, and the spot price has declined. The port inventory remains at a high level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China this week was - 454 dollars per ton, with a reduced loss of 102 dollars per ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rate**: The total production of styrene plants in China was 32.34 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Downstream**: The production of UPR and EPS increased, while the capacity utilization rates of PS, ABS, and SBR decreased slightly, resulting in a slight decrease in overall styrene demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 27, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.3 tons, a 4.69% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the port inventory will slightly increase [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling under the combined influence of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. In the first half, strong raw material prices, continuous inventory reduction, and positive macro - expectations supported the rise of rubber prices; in the second half, after the macro - positive factors materialized, the market sentiment turned cautious, and rubber prices declined. In the future, heavy rainfall in major producing areas will limit rubber tapping, and raw material prices are expected to remain firm. On the demand side, tire companies still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. Overall, raw material prices will provide short - term support, but there is a lack of substantial positive factors on the demand side. Therefore, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate next week [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - As of October 30, the mainstream price of domestic full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. The US dollar price of Thai - produced 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [3] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of ANRPC member countries' natural rubber output and China's natural rubber imports are presented [10][11][12] Tire Output - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of tire output are presented [13][14] Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. Some enterprises suspended or restricted production this week, dragging down the operating rate [3] Tire Enterprise Inventories - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of the number of days of available inventory in semi - steel and full - steel tire factories in Shandong are presented [20][21][22] Natural Rubber Inventories - As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18% [3]

Report Title - The report is titled "Polyester: Favorable Tariff Policy Expected to Boost the Market" [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy is favorable, which is expected to boost the polyester market. Trade friction alleviation and potential policy support are likely to drive market improvement, though some segments face supply - related challenges [4][7][10] Summary by Catalog PX - PX processing fees are relatively strong. Due to sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, some domestic refineries are worried, but PX supply is abundant as some plants are set to restart. PX - N is currently at $247/ton, nearly $30 higher than early October. The short - process processing range has also increased, and PX开工意愿 is strong, fluctuating with oil prices [5] PTA - There is a large potential supply pressure. New installations have increased PTA capacity by 10% compared to the end of last year. Although some plants are under maintenance in November, the supply increase pressure is just postponed. November is near the supply - demand balance, but the inventory accumulation expectation increases from December. The PTA processing fee is low, and it may continue to rebound with the support of the tariff policy, but the rebound strength is not optimistic [6] MEG - Domestic supply is at a high level in recent years. Coal - to - MEG load has reached a record high of 83%. Multiple new installations are scheduled to start production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Import volume is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. Current port inventory is around 500,000 tons, and the visible inventory will increase. MEG is trading sideways at a low level but may rebound under tariff policy support [8] Terminal Demand - Affected by cooling and "Double Eleven" orders, the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has reached a high of 76% this year, but it is 6% lower than the same period last year. Polyester product inventories have decreased, and polyester load is expected to remain between 90% - 91% in November. The cancellation of the "fentanyl tariff" and the suspension of the 24% counter - tariff are expected to improve the terminal export market [7][10] Short - fiber - The short - fiber starting rate has slightly increased to around 95.5%. Factory inventories are at a low level, and the processing fee has slightly decreased to around 1,100 yuan/ton. Downstream pure - polyester yarn factories' starting rate is 73%, and product inventories have slightly decreased. With the support of the tariff policy, demand may improve significantly, and the processing fee is not expected to be pessimistic, with the absolute price fluctuating strongly [13] Bottle - chip - From January to September 2025, domestic demand was 7.357 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and exports were 4.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. The profitability of bottle - chips has improved but has declined recently. With new installations planned to start production and the expected seasonal decline in the soft - drink market, the market pressure remains, and the processing fee increase space is limited. However, the absolute price may rebound with raw materials under the tariff policy [14]