研 究 院 货 金 融 宏观利好不断，铜价继续上行 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 弘 业 期 货 金 融 研 究 院 周五美国核心PCE物价指数低于预期，美联储降息预期继续强化。今日中央政治局会议信息发布，预计很快召开年 度经济工作会议，同时11月中国出口数据明显超预期。午后市场情绪受到较大带动，有色金属全线拉升。日内美元下跌， 有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。铜价直线拉升大涨，再创历史新高。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报92970，现货报92270，沪铜午后拉升大涨，现货较期货贴水-700点。今日现货基差升水 上升至130点，现货成交不佳。LME现货升水下降至23美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存上升，沪铜库存下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率稳定，洋山铜溢价上升至41美元，国内现货需求好转。铜 价伦沪比上升至7.99，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1182点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史新高，在11727美元附近运行。沪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a situation of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices fluctuating in the short - term. There are expectations for macro policies, but the improvement in the fundamental situation is limited [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 1.8931 million tons (-167,700 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1431 million tons (-47,000 tons). Rebar production decreased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production remained at a high level despite the decline [5][36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1698 million tons (-109,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.1486 million tons (-53,600 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.0381 million tons (-266,700 tons), social inventory was 3.6113 million tons (-236,200 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4268 million tons (-40,500 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.0035 million tons (-5,500 tons), social inventory was 3.2043 million tons (-24,500 tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7992 million tons (+19,000 tons) [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 133 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 20 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [8][14]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a 1.3% week - on - week increase. The iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 80.16%, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.72%, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.82%, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5, the average rebar price in major domestic cities was 3,326 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase, and the average hot - rolled coil price was 3,328 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [11]. 3.2. Raw Materials - **Raw Material Price**: The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,505 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [17]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of December 5, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, and the iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.51%, a 2.43% week - on - week increase [21][30]. 3.3. Market Demand - **Building Steel**: As of December 5, the weekly average building steel trading volume was 99,000 tons, remaining at a low level [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of December 5, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,700 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 855,200 tons, a 7,600 - ton week - on - week increase [48]. 3.4. Inventory - **Overall Steel Inventory**: As of December 5, the Tangshan billet inventory was 541,600 tons, a 18,100 - ton week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of major steel products was 9.7826 million tons, a 293,500 - ton week - on - week decrease [52]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 276,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 236,200 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 40,500 tons [55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 5,500 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 24,500 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 19,000 tons. The overall hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level [60]. 3.5. External Market - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase, and new - energy vehicle sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing starts was 19.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion was 16.9%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 6.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales was 9.6%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 9.7% [72].

研 究 院 货 金 融 铝价创出新高，短线延续强势 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 数据来源：WIND、弘业期货金融研究院 研 究 院 周五美国核心PCE物价指数低于预期，美联储降息预期继续强化。今日中央政治局会议信息发布，预计很快召开 年度经济工作会议，同时11月中国出口数据明显超预期。午后市场情绪受到较大带动，有色金属全线拉升。日内美元 下跌，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝下跌。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报22275，现货报21920，现货较期货贴水-355点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至- 100元，今日现货成交较好。本周国内电解铝社会库存下降，氧化铝库存下降。上期所铝库存小幅上升，现货需求好 转。LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水小幅扩大至-29美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率稳定，铝价沪伦比明显上 升至7.73，内盘走势强于外盘。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油小幅上涨，伦铝小幅上涨，在2912美元附近运行。沪铝今日小幅上涨，收于22275，技术 形态偏强。沪铝成 ...

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the float glass futures showed a trend of "bottoming out and then rebounding oscillating". The market in December will continue the pattern of supply - demand game. The supply - side cold - repair capacity may accelerate, and the demand side will enter the seasonal off - season. The futures price is likely to oscillate in the range of 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and focus on the cold - repair implementation rhythm and inventory reduction situation [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Trend - In November, the main contract of float glass futures (FG2601) showed an oscillating repair trend of "bottoming out in the early stage and rebounding at the end of the month". The closing price on November 28 was 1053 yuan/ton, up 4.9% from the end of October. The whole - month low was 1002 yuan/ton, and the maximum rebound amplitude was 5.1%. The monthly trend can be divided into three stages: continuous bottom - seeking from November 1 - 18, stop - falling and stabilization from November 19 - 24, and oscillating rebound from November 25 - 28 [5]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Structure - In November, the linkage between the float glass futures and spot markets increased significantly. The spot price oscillated and rebounded synchronously with the futures. By November 28, the national average spot price was 1090 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the end of October. The basis of the FG2601 contract changed from +45 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 37 yuan/ton at the end of the month. Regionally, there were obvious differences. Overseas, the import and export volumes decreased, and the overseas market had limited support for domestic prices [6]. 2. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals 2.1 Supply Side - In November, the supply side of float glass showed the characteristics of "local contraction, overall looseness". The average monthly start - up rate was 74.51%, down 2.3 percentage points from October. The weekly output decreased from 111.02 tons to 110.39 tons. Due to profit differentiation, the industry was difficult to form a concentrated production cut. The inventory first increased and then decreased, and was still at the second - highest level in the same period of history [16][17]. 2.2 Demand Side - In November, the demand side of float glass showed the differentiated characteristics of "marginal improvement in completion, weak terminal procurement". The real - estate completion area increased, driving a slight rebound in architectural glass demand, but the new - start area decreased significantly, and the medium - and long - term demand growth was insufficient. The downstream deep - processing link was dull, and the demand in other downstream fields was mixed [23]. 2.3 Cost Side - In November, the cost of float glass showed a downward trend, and the cost support for price weakened. The average production cost was 1085 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from October. Cost differentiation further intensified the structural differences on the supply side [37]. 3. Market Outlook for December 2025 3.1 Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - side contraction is expected to accelerate in December. The demand side will enter the seasonal off - season, and the total demand is expected to decline by 5% - 7% month - on - month. The inventory is expected to continue the slow de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [45]. 3.2 Cost Side - In December, the cost of float glass is expected to remain stable, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced. The average production cost may rise to 1090 - 1100 yuan/ton, forming a bottom support for the futures price [46]. 3.3 Technical Aspect - Technically, the FG2601 contract is in the middle of the 1020 - 1070 yuan/ton range. The short - term bullish momentum is still there, but the rebound momentum has weakened. The upper pressure level is 1065 yuan/ton, and the lower support levels are 1030 yuan/ton and 1020 yuan/ton [46]. 4. Operation Strategy Suggestions for December 4.1 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy in the 1030 - 1065 yuan/ton range. - Medium - term strategy: Pay attention to long opportunities brought by unexpected supply contraction. - Hedging strategy: Producers can sell - hedge above 1060 yuan/ton, and deep - processing enterprises can buy - hedge below 1030 yuan/ton [47].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The main corn 2601 contract has seen a rare continuous sharp rise and formed a squeeze market, with a premium over the far - month 2605 contract. The spot price has risen steadily but with a small increase, and the corn basis has continued to weaken. The main starch 2601 contract has followed the corn's continuous rebound, and its basis has weakened in an oscillating manner. The new grain sales are accelerating, the market's grain - grabbing and stockpiling sentiment is rising, but the main futures price of the 2601 contract has shown an irrational rise. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods on dips and moderately increase safety reserves, and traders buy low and sell high. Do not chase the high of the 2601 contract, and pay attention to the low - price opportunities of the 2605 contract [4][7] Group 3: Summary of Key Factors Supply - side Factors - **Grain - grabbing and hoarding in the Northeast**: Due to the serious differentiation of grain quality in North China, the damaged corn offsets the impact of the national corn production increase. Industrial players go to the Northeast to stockpile grain actively. The cold weather makes corn easy to store, and farmers are reluctant to sell, expecting price increases. As of December 4th, the national grain sales progress was 36%, 5% faster than the same period last year, with the Northeast region being 34%, 9% faster [4] - **Port inventory and downstream demand**: As of November 28th, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 136900 tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 53500 tons, a decline from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 18100 tons and continued to decline, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 33600 tons, a slight increase. Downstream deep - processing procurement has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still increasing their inventory. As of December 5th, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 275400 tons, a slight increase, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 28.67 days and continued to rise, but still lower than the same period in previous years [4] - **Grain substitution and imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed to around 177, and substitution is still not feasible. In October, domestic corn imports rebounded significantly, with 35900 tons imported, a five - fold increase from the previous month and a 114.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 129200 tons, a 90.2% decrease year - on - year. Imports of barley and other grains decreased month - on - month. If the domestic corn supply is tight in the later stage, there may be a possibility of expanding and resuming imports [5] - **Foreign market situation**: The US corn in the external market has continued to rebound in an oscillating manner, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report [5] Demand - side Factors - **Feed demand**: Pig prices are low, and pig farming is suffering large losses. As of December 5th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was -$259.39 per pig, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was -$167.69 per pig, both with increasing losses. The adjustment of the sow inventory is slow. In September, the national sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30000 from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. The sow inventory of large - scale farms increased in October. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to decrease. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen, egg - laying hen farming has continued to lose money, chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old hens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens in production decreased slightly. Feed demand is relatively strong. In October, the national industrial feed production was 2.907 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [6] - **Deep - processing demand**: The processing profits of starch processing enterprises have been differentiated, and the operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. As of December 5th, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 61.66%, a month - on - month increase. Starch inventory remains at a high level and continues to decline. Alcohol processing enterprises are still in a loss, but the operating rate is at a high level of 70.28%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises is insufficient, while the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: In November, PTA was in a balanced state. With multiple device overhauls implemented and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the supply pressure was relieved, and the spot processing fee was repaired. In December, the inventory accumulation expectation decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around a wide - balance, with an optimistic outlook on the absolute price [1][10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price of MEG dropped to a near - three - year low due to the long - term oversupply situation. After some device shutdowns, the load declined, and it was expected to decline slightly in December. Although overseas supply was abundant, the recent improvement in the supply - demand situation limited the downside space of the futures price [2][10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The short - fiber operating load was at a high level with good inventory, but the spot processing fee decreased compared to last month. The bottle - chip was still the segment with the greatest supply - demand pressure in the polyester industry, and its spot processing fee narrowed. The overall resilience of the polyester load delayed the inventory accumulation expectation of raw materials [2][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Logic - PTA: Multiple device overhauls since November alleviated the pressure of new capacity. The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to exports. With reduced supply, the spot processing fee was repaired, and the December inventory accumulation expectation decreased [10]. - MEG: In late November, the futures price hit a near - three - year low due to long - term oversupply. After some device shutdowns, the load decreased, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas supply was abundant, but the supply - demand situation improved recently, limiting the downside space of the futures price [10]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. The short - fiber had a high operating load and good inventory, while the bottle - chip had great supply - demand pressure. The terminal market was mediocre in November and might improve slightly in December. The polyester load's resilience delayed raw material inventory accumulation [11]. 3.2 PTA Overhaul Increases, Supply - Demand Pressure Eases 3.2.1 PX Pattern is Good - In November, oil prices were weak. PX had a strong supply - demand structure. Its inventory was low, and new capacity was expected to be supplied in the second half of next year, with concentrated overhauls in the second quarter. The PX - N spread rose above $260/ton [15]. 3.2.2 PTA Supply Narrows, Processing Fee Improves Slightly - This year, three new PTA devices were put into operation, increasing the effective capacity by 10% compared to the end of last year. In November, multiple device overhauls postponed the new capacity pressure. With polyester operating at over 91%, the PTA supply - demand was in a wide - balance. The spot processing fee recovered from below 100 yuan/ton to 150 - 200 yuan/ton, but the industry was still in an overall loss [17][21]. 3.2.3 PTA Balance Forecast - The cancellation of India's BIS certification was beneficial to China's PTA exports in the short term. In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports to India were 20.1 million tons. In November, the PTA output was 6.26 billion tons with a 10 - million - ton inventory increase. In December, the first half - month had less supply pressure, and the overall market was not pessimistic [24][25]. 3.3 MEG Supply - Demand Improves, Short - term Downside Space is Limited 3.3.1 Supply Narrows - In late October, the MEG load reached a recent high, and the supply was abundant. In the long - term, new devices added to the supply pressure, causing the price to hit a near - three - year low. Since November, the load has dropped by about 2%, and it might decline slightly in December. Overseas, the overall supply was high [30]. 3.3.2 Overseas Supply is Not Low - Currently, the overall domestic and overseas supply is abundant. In December, Middle - East supplies will shrink moderately. Since September, the East China terminal inventory has nearly doubled, and the import volume in October increased to 654,000 tons, expected to continue rising in November and December [35][36]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Forecast - In late November, the MEG factory inventory decreased, and the polyester factory's raw material inventory increased slightly. In December, with the polyester load at 90 - 91%, MEG was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the downside space was not overly pessimistic [38]. 3.4 Downstream Demand is Resilient 3.4.1 Polyester Improves Month - on - Month - In November, the polyester load was maintained at around 91.3%. The cancellation of India's BIS certification increased the export of polyester filament. In November, two new filament devices were put into operation, and two more will be released in December, increasing the demand for raw materials. The short - fiber production increased significantly in November, with good inventory control. The export growth rate was high, and the market was expected to follow raw material fluctuations. The bottle - chip supply pressure was high, the processing fee was weak, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with limited future driving forces [44][51][62]. 3.4.2 Terminal Demand is Average - In terms of domestic demand, from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth of retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 3.5%. In October, the domestic retail sales increased by 7%. In terms of exports, in October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.6%. From January to October, the cumulative export was $243.94 billion. The weaving order days decreased in November, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 72%. Domestic sales demand weakened, and exports might improve slightly [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market for soybeans and soybean meal is in a state of oscillation. Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, ensuring sufficient soybean supply. Oil mills' operating rates are average, and soybean meal inventory remains high, while demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will return to an oscillatory state, and soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory trend [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The soybeans No. 1 2601 contract continues to oscillate. The spot price is stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans No. 1 oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market is maintained. - The main soybean meal contract is shifting to 2605, showing an oscillatory trend. The spot price of soybean meal has a slight increase, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,980 yuan/ton to around 3,020 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market narrows [5] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales and Supply - The sales of domestic soybeans are relatively fast. The production of new - season domestic soybeans has slightly decreased to 20.9 million tons, and the quality in North China and other regions is differentiated, with high - protein soybeans in the Northeast being popular. As of November 28, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 74%, in Anhui to 73%, in Henan to 76%, and in Shandong to 81%. Recently, the auction of state - reserve soybeans has been suspended [5] 3.3 Import and Inventory of Soybeans - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is high, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. In October, China imported 9.48 million tons of soybeans, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 28, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.405 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period; the port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period [5] 3.4 US Soybean Market - US soybeans are undergoing high - level adjustments. The November supply - demand report of the US Department of Agriculture has reduced the yield per unit and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The production in South America has not been adjusted, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases [5] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the soybean meal inventory has increased again. As of November 28, the operating rate of oil mills was 60.54%, a decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level in recent years; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2008 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period. The soybean meal production was 1.7386 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.2032 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period and at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3.881 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.17 days, rebounding compared to the previous period [6] 3.6 Feed Demand - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and farming is suffering significant losses. As of November 28, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 248.82 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 147.99 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory in large - scale farms is delayed, with a slight increase in the inventory in October; the number of piglets born has increased again, while the sales volume has continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the herd; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening has increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price has dropped again, and farming continues to suffer losses, with an increase in the number of culled poultry. The inventory in October decreased slightly from the previous month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decline from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; feed demand remains strong [7]

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]