Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as higher-than-expected production in Malaysia, slower export growth, potential inventory accumulation, and uncertain Indonesian biodiesel policies [33] - Soybean oil is likely to experience short - term oscillations. Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and the potential resumption of soybean trade between China and the US are key factors, along with high domestic inventory [33] - Rapeseed oil is also expected to have short - term oscillations. Tensions in China - Canada relations, low domestic rapeseed inventory, and potential supply relief from Australian rapeseed are important considerations [33] Market Review - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, 3 million tons higher than the current B40 policy, and the exportable supply will drop significantly [4] - The US government shutdown has suspended the release of key information, and attention should be paid to US biodiesel policies and Sino - US relations [4] - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026, which may affect soybean crushing demand [5] - In the 11th week of the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed export slowed down, with exports of 124,000 tons in the week ending October 19 [5] Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons [7] Demand - As of October 24, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 7,032 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,799 tons [8] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 66,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons [8] - As of October 24, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 14,510 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] Inventory - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,400 tons, or 5.45% [9] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons, or 2.15% [9] - The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, or 2.72% [9] Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,094 per ton, the import cost was 9,332 yuan per ton, and the hedging profit for November and December shipments was negative [10] Production and Trade - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 10.77%. From October 18 - 24, 4 new palm oil purchase ships and 1 wash - out ship were added in China [11] - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, and the soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [11] Spot Prices - As of October 24, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,240 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,090 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton [13] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation Production - In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%. From October 1 - 20, production is estimated to increase by 10.77% [15] Inventory - In September, the inventory was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [16] Export - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. From October 1 - 20, export volume increased compared to the same period in September [17] Consumption - Malaysia's domestic palm oil consumption was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [17] India's Palm Oil Import - In September, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, with 829,000 tons imported, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [19] Domestic Palm Oil Situation - In September, domestic palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [21] - In September, palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [23] - As of October 24, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan per ton [26] Domestic Soybean Oil Situation - As of October 24, the oil mill operating rate rose to 65.13%, and soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [28] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [29] - In September, soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [29] Domestic Rapeseed Oil Situation - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with cost support and high inventory pressure coexisting, limiting the upside potential of prices. Future focus should be on the release of new production capacity in the north and the rhythm of production cuts in the south [7]. - The silicon ferro market is in a stalemate between cost support and weak demand. Short - term prices are resilient due to macro - sentiment but have limited upside potential. Future focus should be on changes in production in major producing areas and terminal demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Viewpoints Silicon Manganese - **Price**: As of October 24, the prices of silicon manganese 6517 in most major producing areas remained stable, with a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: Costs in various regions generally decreased or remained stable, with profit losses showing differentiation. The overall profitability was still poor but with local improvements [4]. - **Supply**: As of October 24, the operating rate and output of silicon manganese enterprises continued to decline, and the supply pressure continued to ease [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 24, the daily output of molten iron decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Factory - end inventory continued to increase, especially in Ningxia. The inventory of steel mills decreased slightly but remained at a medium - high level overall [5]. - **Manganese Ore Supply and Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased, with significant changes in the inventory of different types of manganese ore at different ports [6]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon manganese market continued to oscillate last week. Supply pressure eased, but high - inventory limited price increases. Demand was acceptable, and cost support was enhanced. Overall, it will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Silicon Ferro - **Price**: As of October 24, the prices of silicon ferro 72 in major producing areas generally increased, and market sentiment improved [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased overall, and profit performance was differentiated, with losses deepening in some areas [8]. - **Supply**: As of October 24, the operating rate and output in major producing areas increased slightly, and the supply pressure remained high [8]. - **Demand**: Steel mills' procurement of silicon ferro increased slightly, but it was still in a "peak - season without peak" state. Non - steel demand was weak [9]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise - end inventory decreased, with significant destocking in Inner Mongolia, while steel - mill inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Blue Coke Supply and Inventory**: The price of blue coke increased, supply recovered slightly, and inventory accumulated [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon ferro market showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern last week. Supply pressure remained high, costs increased, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends at the enterprise and steel - mill ends. It will remain in a stalemate and fluctuate within a range in the short term [10]. Part Two: Silicon Manganese Supply - Demand Tracking - **Price Spread Tracking**: Multiple price spreads of silicon manganese contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [14][19]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions are provided, and the port prices of manganese ore remained firm [26][31]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore is tracked, with a significant decline in the inventory of South African ore in Qinzhou Port [46]. - **Enterprise Operating Rate and Output**: The operating rate and daily output of 187 sample silicon manganese enterprises are shown [55]. - **Steel - Mill Demand**: The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills and the demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products are presented [58]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese in sample enterprises in different regions and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [62][66]. Part Three: Silicon Ferro Supply - Demand Tracking - **Price Spread Tracking**: Multiple price spreads of silicon ferro contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [70][75]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of silicon ferro in different regions increased [79]. - **Cost Factors**: The spot price of blue coke continued to rise, and the electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased [84]. - **Enterprise Operating Rate and Output**: The operating rate and daily output of 136 independent silicon ferro enterprises are shown [94]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon ferro in the five major steel products and the monthly output of crude steel are presented [96]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon ferro in sample enterprises and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [104].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Negotiations Look Promising, Sharp Rise in US Soybeans Boosts Soybean Meal" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1] - The report is from the Financial Research Institute of Hongye Futures, written by Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Soybean No. 1 2601 contract continued its oscillating rebound. The spot price slightly increased; the market price of Fuyin soybeans rose from 4000 yuan/ton to around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the premium on the futures decreased [4] - The Soybean Meal 01 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of soybean meal recovered; the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rose from 2870 yuan/ton to around 2910 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures maintained a slight premium [4] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion with quality differentiation. As of October 24, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang reached 95%, 75% in Anhui, 70% in Henan, and 75% in Shandong. Heilongjiang's soybeans are of good quality, while those in North China are of poor quality [4] - Soybean supply is abundant, and initial Sino-US talks are promising. In September, domestic soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the previous month and a 13.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year. There is a possibility of purchasing US soybeans. As of October 24, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.145 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and the port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, also a slight decrease but at a recent high [4] Group 4: US Soybean Situation - US soybeans rebounded significantly. The US government is still shut down, but some agricultural services are open, and subsidy funds have been issued. The US soybean harvest may be near completion. The positive expectation of Sino-US negotiations boosted US soybeans to a nearly one-year high [5] Group 5: Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills continued to rise, and soybean meal inventory increased again. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans declined due to high costs. As of October 24, the operating rate of oil mills was 65.13%, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, reaching a recent high. The soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.513 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.87 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.0546 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.2125 million tons, a further decline from the previous month [5] Group 6: Feed Demand - Feed demand is strong. In the pig farming sector, pig prices rebounded from a low level, and the loss margin narrowed. As of October 24, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -289.07 yuan per head, a significant loss, while the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -185.68 yuan per head, with the loss narrowing. In the poultry sector, egg prices declined again, and egg-laying hens were in a loss-making situation, with insufficient culling, and the inventory in September remained at a historical high. As of October 24, the inventory days of soybean meal at feed mills were 7.95 days, a slight increase from the previous month [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion, with quality differentiation, and prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic soybean supply is high, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US negotiations. The operating rate of oil mills is rising, and soybean meal inventory is increasing again. Demand is strong. Soybean No. 1 will oscillate and rebound, and soybean meal will oscillate and stabilize. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price is close to a new high due to macro - positive stimuli. The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic. The copper price may continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term and could potentially break through historical highs following the trend of gold [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Market Performance - Today, the US dollar rose slightly while the RMB soared. Non - ferrous metals remained strong throughout the day. Shanghai copper, London copper, and domestic spot copper all increased. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 88,370, and the spot price was 88,340. The spot was at a discount of - 30 points to the futures. The spot basis turned to a discount of - 45 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 26 dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continued to rise significantly this week, London copper inventories decreased, and Shanghai copper inventories increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose significantly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to 34.5 dollars, showing weak domestic spot demand. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rose to 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper increased to 595 points, with the foreign price - to - value ratio higher than the domestic one [3] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Technically, London copper surged today, trading around 11,050 dollars. Shanghai copper also rose sharply, closing at 88,370, hitting a recent high with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, and market sentiment was optimistic. Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and global monetary policies are becoming more accommodative, which is a medium - term positive for copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, mine production in places like Indonesia has declined, but short - term spot demand remains weak, inventories are high, and there is growth potential for medium - to - long - term copper demand, presenting a generally neutral situation that requires attention [3][4] Future Events to Watch - In the short - term, important macro events to follow include the results of Sino - US talks, the Fed's interest - rate meeting early Thursday, the APEC meeting at the end of the month where Sino - US leaders may meet, and the end of the US government shutdown. In the medium - term, it is necessary to monitor whether Sino - US relations can continue to improve, whether the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle can persist, when the current weak domestic and foreign spot demand will improve, and whether AI - related demand can materialize [4] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures and Spot Spread | Main Contract London - Shanghai Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Oct 21 | 7.1269 | 450 | 35 | - 23 | 8.05 | | Oct 22 | 7.1256 | - 320 | 34 | - 30 | 8.03 | | Oct 23 | 7.1246 | - 520 | 40 | - 6 | 8.05 | | Oct 24 | 7.1259 | - 1170 | 39 | - 12 | 7.97 | | Oct 27 | 7.1136 | - 30 | 34.5 | - 26 | 8.09 | [5]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and General Situation - The sentiment in the futures financial market is positive, with the market expected to fluctuate upward in the future [3] - The Sino - Malaysian negotiation may achieve important results, and Chinese and US leaders may meet at the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's industrial enterprise profits in September exceeded expectations, leading to an optimistic market sentiment [4] Group 2: Aluminum Market Data - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,360, and the spot price was 21,160, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 200 points. This week, the spot discount of Shanghai Aluminum widened to - 60 yuan, and today's spot trading was poor [4] - This week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly, the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory also decreased slightly. The LME spot premium dropped to 3 US dollars, indicating improved overseas demand [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose significantly this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.48, with the domestic market performing weaker than the overseas market [4] - From October 21st to October 27th, the RMB exchange rate, spot premium, and other aluminum market indicators changed. For example, the RMB exchange rate decreased from 7.1269 to 7.1136, and the spot premium changed from 0 to - 60 [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Today, crude oil rose slightly, and London Aluminum soared, trading around 2,884 US dollars. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated upward and closed at 21,160, with a strong technical pattern [4] - The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum both increased, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly this week, and the spot trading was average [4] - The hype about anti - involution subsided, and alumina fluctuated slightly. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, and tariff news has a great impact on the market. In the short term, the market sentiment is strong, and aluminum prices will rise with copper prices. In the medium term, attention should be paid to changes in spot demand [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Slightly Weaken, Futures Market Ranges" - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251027 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Guisheng [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The current iron ore supply and demand situation is slightly weak, and it will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. The report suggests a range - bound trading strategy and advises to pay attention to changes in macro sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading Logic - **Supply**: From October 20th - 26th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3388.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.8 million tons. Australian shipments were 1984.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, while Brazilian shipments were 941.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2029.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 490.2 million tons. As of October 24th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 47.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07%. Mine concentrate inventory was 91.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of October 24th, the daily average pig iron output was 239.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 million tons. The profitability rate dropped significantly this period, and pig iron output continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. There was some rigid demand for restocking support, but the steel mills' profitability continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port decreased by 17 to 107. The congestion situation decreased significantly, and the inventory transferred to the port, increasing the port inventory pressure. Steel mills' inventory remained at a low level [5] - **Basis**: The basis of contracts 01 and 05 fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [7] - **Ore Powder Spread**: The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, were both in low - level oscillations [13][17] - **Contract Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread did not fluctuate much, and the basis of contract 01 oscillated at a low level [21] - **Relative Valuation**: The rebar - ore ratio oscillated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillated downward [28] 3.3 Supply Details - Global shipments increased slightly, and non - mainstream ore shipments also increased slightly [34] - Australian ore shipments to China decreased slightly, while Brazilian ore shipments continued to increase [38] - FMG shipments to China decreased, while BHP shipments increased slightly [42] - RT and VALE shipments both increased slightly [46] - The freight rate index fluctuated slightly [50] - The arrival volume continued to decline [54] - The output of domestic iron concentrate changed little [57] 3.4 Demand Details - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces rebounded at a low level [63] - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased, and pig iron output decreased [69] 3.5 Inventory Details - The port's ore handling volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to increase [78] - The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continued to increase [82] - The coarse powder inventory oscillated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory continued to increase [89] - Steel mills' consumption decreased slowly at a high level, and the inventory of imported ore remained at a low level [97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry have improved, but downstream demand remains weak. The price of coking coal and coke has increased this week, strengthening cost - side support and limiting the downside space for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 2.0707 million tons (+59,100 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2246 million tons (+6,200 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2601 million tons (+62,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2673 million tons (+111,800 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 6.2211 million tons (-189,400 tons), social inventory was 4.3748 million tons (-189,300 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.8463 million tons (-1,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1492 million tons (-42,700 tons), social inventory was 3.3757 million tons (-37,700 tons), and steel mill inventory was 773,500 tons (-5,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: Futures fluctuated, and the basis was volatile [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease; pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, a 0.44% week - on - week increase, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a 0.99% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease [5]. 3.2. Macro Aspect - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and the two sides reached a preliminary consensus. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that in key areas, the total steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited [6]. 3.3. Raw Materials - **Prices**: This week, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton (a 40 - yuan increase), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,575 yuan/ton (no change), and the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/ton (no change) [17]. - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: Pig iron output continued to decline, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased. As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.44% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99% week - on - week, and pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [19][21]. 3.4. Steel Mill Profitability As of October 24th, the profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease. The increase in cost - side prices squeezed steel profits [29]. 3.5. Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate As of October 24th, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.44%, a 1.76% week - on - week increase [33]. 3.6. Steel Production As of October 24th, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production increased by 44,100 tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 6,200 tons week - on - week and remained at a high level [38]. 3.7. Demand - Rebar consumption increased by 62,600 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 111,800 tons week - on - week [44]. - As of October 24th, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 100,500 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level. The weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,900 tons. Downstream cold - rolled production was 860,700 tons, a 13,400 - ton week - on - week decrease with an increased decline [47][52]. 3.8. Steel Inventory - As of October 24th, Tangshan billet inventory was 540,100 tons, a 96,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The inventory of major steel products was 10.9942 million tons, a 261,000 - ton week - on - week decrease [55]. - Rebar total inventory decreased by 189,400 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 189,300 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 1,000 tons week - on - week [57]. - Hot - rolled total inventory decreased by 42,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 37,700 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 5,000 tons week - on - week [62]. 3.9. Steel Exports In August, steel exports were 9.41 million tons, a 330,000 - ton month - on - month decrease; from January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year - on - year increase [65]. 3.10. Automobile Production and Sales - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million tons, a 209,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. 3.11. Real Estate Data From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the newly started housing area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the completed housing area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the funds in place decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [71][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in Shanghai lead prices is mainly driven by overseas funds, but there is a large expectation that the domestic fundamentals will gradually weaken, and overseas lead supply is not scarce. The upward trend of lead prices lacks sustainable driving force. In the short - term, lead may remain relatively strong, but the risk at high levels is increasing, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Market - The cancellation ratio of LME lead inventory warrants has exceeded 60%, and the risk of overseas warrants is relatively large. Although the LME lead inventory has decreased recently, it is still at a high level in recent years, and the overall supply - demand of lead is relatively loose, so the driving force at the spot warrant level is difficult to last [2] Domestic Market - **Supply Side**: Pre - maintenance primary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and the supply has increased month - on - month. The supply pressure of recycled lead is also expected to increase in the medium term. Since mid - October, the cost of waste batteries has decreased, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been continuously repaired, and the willingness to resume production has increased. Although short - term environmental protection control has affected the transportation of recycled lead and adjusted the resumption plan of some refineries, the medium - term supply recovery momentum still exists [4] - **Demand Side**: The demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [4] - **Inventory**: As of October 20, domestic lead inventory has continued to decline to 32,800 tons, at an absolute low in recent years, indicating that the supply side has not weakened yet. The vehicle control in Hebei has affected the transportation of waste batteries and lead ingots, and short - term environmental protection control has supported lead prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain harvest is in the second half, with significant pressure from increased production in Northeast China and damaged grain quality due to mold in North China. Demand is strong, and there may be a shortage of high - quality corn in the later period. It is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality wet grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - Corn main contract 2601 oscillated and stabilized. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan rose from 2150 yuan/ton to around 2180 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port remained stable at around 2310 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, with the futures slightly at a discount. - Starch main contract 2601 stopped falling and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened oscillating [4]. Supply - side Situation - **Grain Quality Differentiation**: In the second half of the autumn harvest, grain quality differentiated. Corn production increased in Northeast China, and the harvest was nearing completion with good quality but pressure from increased supply. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, previous continuous rainy weather led to poor grain quality such as mold and germination. High - quality corn in Northeast China was favored, and the public auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation had a large - volume transaction. On October 20, 14,217 tons were put up for auction and all were sold [4]. - **Channel Inventory**: As of October 17, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 959,000 tons and continued to rise; the weekly shipping volume reached a high of 804,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to decline to 118,000 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory rebounded to 362,000 tons. The inventory of downstream enterprises varied. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, reaching 2.622 million tons as of October 24, while the corn inventory of feed enterprises decreased to 24.04 days, remaining at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Grain Substitution and Imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn widened to around 200, and wheat lost its substitution advantage. The auction of policy rice stopped. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80.7%; from January to September, a total of 936,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, imports were expected to remain low [5]. - **Foreign Market**: The US corn in the foreign market oscillated and rebounded. There was significant pressure from the concentrated harvest of US corn, and production increased. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture's reports were suspended [5]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed Demand**: Pig prices were low, and pig farming suffered large losses. As of October 17, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 244.7 yuan per head. Even leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan had started to incur losses. Policy regulation of production capacity was lagging and insufficient, and short - term inventory reduction was difficult. Although the inventory of breeding sows had been adjusted downward, the adjustment was small, and the overall progress was slow, far from the regulation target. Pig inventory might still increase inertia. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell again, and egg - chicken farming suffered losses again. The inventory of laying hens in production increased in September. The loss and cycle of egg - chicken farming were insufficient, leading to a delay in production - capacity adjustment. In September, the feed production volume was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production volume was 246.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Feed demand remained strong [6]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises might pick up, and the peak season was gradually approaching. A large amount of low - priced moldy corn could only enter the deep - processing sector, significantly reducing the cost of deep - processing enterprises. The starch - processing profit was fully profitable, and the operating rate increased. As of October 17, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 55.62%, showing an overall upward trend recently. Starch inventory decreased. Some alcohol - processing enterprises had profits, and the operating rate increased to 61.67%, also showing an overall upward trend recently. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises was weak, while that of paper - making enterprises was strong [7].