Hong Yuan Qi Huo
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贵金属日评:美国贸易政策不确定性或支撑贵金属价格-20251013
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of US trade policy, weak employment market concerns, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, the US federal government shutdown crisis, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 897.74 yuan/gram, with a change of -13.64 yuan compared to the previous day and 44.84 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 71,242.00, and the open interest was 211,162.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was -117.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of -87.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 450.00 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 605,570.00, and the open interest was 544,232.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,035.50 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 154.70 US dollars compared to the previous day and 44.40 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 273,357.00, and the open interest was 379,094.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.52 US dollars/ounce, with a change of -0.14 US dollars compared to the previous day and 0.65 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 141,909.00, and the open interest was 128,281.00 [1] Important Information - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed down to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder impressed Bessent. Fed Governor Waller is most worried about the employment market and is open to a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] - For the first time in modern US history, the White House "steward" announced that the Trump administration has started permanent layoffs. The release time of the US September CPI report is set for October 24, 9 days later than the interest rate decision [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly establish long positions after price pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 790 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 940 - 1,010 yuan/gram; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 30 - 37 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 57 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,200 - 8,500 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 13,000 - 14,800 yuan/ten grams [1]
工业硅、多晶硅日评:承压-20251013
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:58
Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side still shows a certain increase, the improvement on the demand side is limited, the industrial silicon remains in an oversupply situation, and the silicon price will continue to be under pressure due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, the polysilicon price is consolidating at a high level. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to rise further, which may suppress the futures market. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.52% to 8,685 yuan/ton. [1] - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged. [1] Inventory and Production - On October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with before the National Day. [1] - In September 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 420,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,100 tons (9.1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 33,300 tons (7.3%). From January to September 2025, the cumulative output was 3.0177 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In October, the total planned production is expected to increase by 8.5% month - on - month. [1] Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area will gradually enter the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply side will tighten. [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an output increase in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited. [1] Investment Strategy - Keep holding out - of - the - money put options. [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re -投料, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, while the closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.55% to 48,965 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly. [1] - On the demand side, the market transactions during the National Day were light, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October. [1] Investment Strategy - Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1] Other Products - For silicon wafers, the prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm remained unchanged. [1] - For battery cells, the price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged. [1] - For components, the prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided, 182mm and 210mm) remained unchanged. [1] - For organic silicon, the price of DMC remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased 3.14% to 11,500 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan/ton. [1]
尿素早评:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下-20251013
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:35
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, urea prices dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's response to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: On October 10, UR01 in Shandong was 1597 yuan/ton (-0.75% compared to October 9), in Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton (-0.65%), UR05 was 1666 yuan/ton (-0.66%), and UR09 was 1702 yuan/ton (+0.06%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, it was 1530 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Hebei, 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Northeast China, 1630 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 1550 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 126 yuan/ton (+1 yuan compared to October 9), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 69 yuan/ton (-1 yuan) [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1612 yuan/ton, the highest was 1614 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1593 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1601 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 338,864 lots [1].
原油周报:中东局势缓和预期推动地缘溢价回落-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 14:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices may continue the weak and volatile market due to the pressure of production increase and the expectation of easing in the Middle East situation. After the holiday, domestic oil prices opened lower to make up for the decline and continued to decline weakly on Friday. The domestic SC was weaker than the external market due to inventory pressure [4][75]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of macro - economic improvement. Crude oil may benefit as an asset choice for hedging inflation and de - dollarization, and the bullish sentiment is expected to improve [4][75]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Oil prices fluctuated during the holiday**: Oil prices were affected by production increase and the expectation of geopolitical easing. OPEC+ continued to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, less than market rumors. After October 6, prices rebounded, but geopolitical premiums declined due to the expected easing in the Middle East. As of October 9, WTI closed at $61.52 per barrel, Brent at $65.23 per barrel; as of October 10, SC closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel [4][9][75]. - **Inter - monthly spreads fluctuated weakly**: The inter - monthly spreads showed a weak and volatile trend [11]. - **WTI fund net long positions were at a low level**: As of the week ending September 30, Brent's net long positions were 202,480 lots, a decrease of 9,903 lots from the previous week. As of the week ending September 23, WTI's net long positions were 26,483 lots, a decrease of 10,316 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 412 lots, diesel by 3,200 lots, and heating oil decreased by 2,483 lots [16]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The actual production increase rate was lower than the planned rate. In the planned production of the eight major countries from May to August, there was a difference of about 150,000 barrels per day between the planned and actual production in July and August. The actual monthly incremental production was different from the planned values. This gap was based on Kazakhstan's over - production. If Kazakhstan was also restricted by the production cut compensation plan, OPEC+'s actual production increase might be further revised down. On October 5, OPEC+ chose a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, and its future production increase might depend on market stability and oil price performance [21][25][30]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. The production increase ability was limited due to the previous low oil prices and uncertain future demand. Institutions had revised down the production increase expectations for US shale oil. When WTI was between $55 - 65 per barrel, it was difficult to see a significant increase in shale oil production, and below $55 per barrel, production might decline slightly [31][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand for refined oil rebounded, with distillate demand performing better than gasoline. As of the week ending October 3, the demand for gasoline, distillate, and aviation kerosene showed different trends, and the total demand for petroleum products increased. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel were at a neutral level, and refinery profits were moderately high. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4% as of the week ending October 3, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year [36][45][49]. - **China**: The demand was better than expected. From June to August, the crude oil processing volume and refined oil production increased year - on - year. The main refineries had a significant increase in operation since June and remained at a high level, while local refineries had only a certain improvement in operation [55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil had a slight inventory build - up, mainly due to increased domestic supply and net imports, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the week ending October 3, the crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week. The SPR inventory was 406.985 million barrels, an increase of 285,000 barrels from the previous week. The Cushing area's inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels from the previous week. In the refined oil market, there was a slight inventory drawdown due to improved demand [61][62][67]. - **OECD**: The surplus pressure was gradually increasing. With OPEC+'s production increase, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and the OECD continued to build up inventory. In September 2025, the global monthly supply - demand gap was 3.88 million barrels per day, and the OECD's inventory at the end of September was 2.878 billion barrels, an increase of 39 million barrels from the previous month [71].
镍与不锈钢日评:反弹高度有限-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 14:37
Report Summary 1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251010: Limited Rebound Height [1] 2. Core View - On October 9, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 130,864 lots (+3,674) and an open interest of 86,038 lots (+9,898). LME nickel rose 0.91%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the rebound height of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased on October 9 compared to previous dates. For example, the near - month contract closed at 124,260 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 130,864 lots, an increase of 3,674 lots. The open interest was 86,038 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while LME nickel inventory increased. The total LME nickel inventory on October 9 was 236,892 tons, an increase of 5,580 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed. For example, the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active Shanghai nickel futures contract changed from - 2,430 yuan/ton on September 24 to 1,000 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Stainless Steel Futures - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts also had changes. The near - month contract closed at 12,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan compared to September 24 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless steel futures contract was 88,195 lots, a decrease of 39,957 lots compared to September 24. The open interest was 60,514 lots, a decrease of 7,320 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai stainless steel futures decreased. The inventory on October 9 was 86,551 tons, a decrease of 418 tons compared to September 24 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different - term Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For example, the basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active futures contract was 970 yuan/ton on October 9 [2]. Other Market Data - **Nickel Ore Prices**: The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8%) remained flat [2]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The prices of nickel - related products such as nickel pig iron, battery - grade nickel sulfate, and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate had different changes [2]. 4. Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the validity period of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to one year, and required general mining license (IUP) and single - commodity mining license (IUPK) holders to re - apply for RKAB in 2026 and 2027 [2]. 5. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Short at high prices [2].
沪铜日评:美元指数走强扰动铜价上涨节奏-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 14:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The strengthening of the US dollar index may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices, despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, fiscal easing in multiple countries, and disruptions in overseas copper mine production. Pre - existing long positions should be held cautiously, or new long positions can be established after price corrections. Attention should be paid to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,750, up 3,640 from the previous period. The trading volume was 137,816 lots, a decrease of 18,253 lots. The open interest was 221,715 lots, an increase of 7,856 lots. The inventory was 29,703 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was - 1,010, a decrease of 1,140 [2] - **SMM Copper - related Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,740, up 2,500. The average price of SMM flat - copper premium/discount was - 5, an increase of 25. The average price of SMM premium - copper premium/discount was 80, an increase of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 9, 2025, was 10,776.5, up 75.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 24.9, an increase of 4.62. The LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 94.17, an increase of 24.45 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on October 9, 2025, was 5.14, up 0.051. The total inventory was 661,883, an increase of 4,585 [2] 2. Important Information - It is expected that by 2025, the top 20 global copper mines will contribute about 36% of global production, but most mines face geological, operational, and social challenges. BMI has significantly raised the forecast of the copper supply gap in 2026 from 72,000 tons to 400,000 tons. Citibank warns that if copper prices cannot effectively stimulate new production capacity, a supply shortage may occur in 2027 [2] 3. Long - Short Logic - **Supply Side**: There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, tightening the supply - demand expectations of domestic copper concentrates. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a slight increase in the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand Side**: The sharp rise in copper prices has made downstream buyers purchase mainly based on rigid demand [2] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Hold pre - existing long positions cautiously or establish new long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support level of 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]
尿素早评:向上驱动未现供给压力驱动向下-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 07:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Although India issued a new round of tenders during the National Day, the domestic market reaction was limited due to export policy uncertainties. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high - supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, since the current urea valuation is low, it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 9, compared with September 30, UR01 dropped from 1670 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton (-3.65%); UR05 dropped from 1717 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.33%); UR09 dropped from 1742 yuan/ton to 1701 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-2.35%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.50%); in Shanxi, it dropped from 1490 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-2.01%); in Henan, it dropped from 1590 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.26%); in Hebei, it dropped from 1640 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Northeast China, it dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.21%); in Jiangsu, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.88%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong dropped from 2930 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton (-1.02%), and in Henan, it dropped from 2520 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton (-0.79%). The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b) Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR remained unchanged at - 117 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread decreased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1]. c) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 310689 lots [1].
甲醇日评20251010:高库存压制现货价格-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The high inventory suppresses the spot price of methanol. In the short - term, the methanol price may be weakly volatile. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - MA01 decreased from 2328.00 yuan/ton on September 30, 2025, to 2290.00 yuan/ton on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 1.63%. MA05 decreased from 2362.00 yuan/ton to 2346.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. MA09 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Among spot prices, prices in most regions decreased, except for Hubei which increased by 1.28% from 2340.00 yuan/ton to 2370.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Methanol Basis and Related Prices - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 90.50 yuan/ton to - 80.00 yuan/ton [1] - Coal and natural gas prices were relatively stable, with slight decreases in some coal prices and no change in industrial natural gas prices [1] 3. Methanol Profit Situation - Coal - made methanol profit decreased from 334.80 yuan/ton to 324.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99%. Natural gas - made methanol profit remained unchanged at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO profit in the Northwest decreased by 55.86% from - 58.00 yuan/ton to - 90.40 yuan/ton, and in the East by 0.76% from - 590.07 yuan/ton to - 594.57 yuan/ton [1] - Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid increased by 0.96%, MTBE by 4.94%, formaldehyde by 1.83%, and dimethyl ether by 4.29% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell, opening at 2321 yuan/ton, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 545,698 lots and open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons restarted. Currently, all plants are operating, with only a few at low loads. The daily output is gradually increasing. The overall loading volume is around 243,000 tons, a decrease compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Market Logic and Strategy - Market logic: During the holiday, the methanol spot price dropped. High imports and blocked freight during the holiday led to high port inventory and supply pressure. The downstream's short - term restocking power was insufficient before the holiday, and the traditional downstream peak season is ending. The supply side's drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter [1] - Trading strategy: Wait and see [1]
铅锌日评:震荡整理-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:34
| 铅锌日评20251010:震荡整理 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/10 指标 单位 今值 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 16,800.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,115.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | | 1.03% | | | | 元/吨 -315.00 沪铅基差 | | | | | -175.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -10.00 | | | | | -10.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -29.64 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -68.30 | | | | | 7.66 5.90 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 | 价差 | | | | 500.00 | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 -20.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 ...
碳酸锂日评:低位震荡-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - On October 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased. Both supply and demand were strong. The inventory pressure of upstream producers was not significant. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction weakened, and the downstream inventory reached its peak. The demand inflection point had arrived. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Wait for the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the reserve report [1] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Futures contract closing prices: The closing price of the near - month contract was 72,740 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract was 72,880 yuan/ton [1] - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 361,093 lots (+43,635), and the open interest was 229,022 lots (-2,942) [1] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory was 42,379 tons (+670), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelting plants, downstream, and others decreased [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton (-60), the spread between the first - and second - continuous contracts was -40 yuan/ton (-20), and the spread between the second - and third - continuous contracts was 0 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 750 yuan/ton (-540) [1] Spot Market Data - Lithium ore prices: Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price was 843 US dollars/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 1,110 yuan/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,835 yuan/ton (-20), etc. [1] - Lithium compound prices: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) average price was 73,550 yuan/ton (0), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) average price was 71,300 yuan/ton (0), etc. [1] - Other battery material prices: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 90,450 yuan/ton (+3,500), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 122,350 yuan/ton (+1,500), etc. [1] Supply and Demand Information - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased [1] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The 3C product shipments were average. In September, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Industry News - German resource company Neptune Energy announced that an international evaluation company found that the lithium ore resources in the Altmark region of Saxony - Anhalt, Germany, had a lithium carbonate equivalent of 43 million tons. The company plans to produce battery - grade lithium from local brine lithium resources using the DLE direct lithium extraction method [1]