Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference last week, the overall tone was moderate, with no mention of real - estate support policies. The pricing focus of the steel market has returned to fundamentals, and the previous macro - premium has been reversed. [1] - The supply of molten iron is decreasing due to seasonal patterns and steel enterprise profitability. However, recent raw material price concessions have improved blast furnace and electric furnace profits, potentially slowing down the steel production cut. [1] - Seasonal weakness in demand is the core issue for steel prices. Real - estate steel demand is shrinking, and cold weather restricts construction. New steel export regulations may reduce exports next year, weakening the support for steel prices. [1] - The overall inventory of the five major steel products is decreasing. Rebar inventory reduction is relatively healthy, but hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is slower than expected. [1] - The main contradiction currently lies in the furnace materials. Iron ore port inventory is increasing, and its valuation is high, but there is support from winter stockpiling. Coking coal supply is relatively abundant, and its price is weak, but it rebounded at night due to anti - involution news. [1] - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3000 - 3400. [1] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level support has faded, and the steel market is back to fundamentals. [1] - Supply: Molten iron production is decreasing, but profit improvement may slow the production cut. [1] - Demand: Seasonal weakness, real - estate demand decline, and potential export reduction. [1] - Inventory: Rebar inventory reduction is better than hot - rolled coil. [1] - Furnace materials: Iron ore has high inventory and valuation, with winter - stockpiling support; coking coal supply is abundant. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The rebar range may be 2900 - 3300, and the hot - rolled coil range may be 3000 - 3400. [5][6] - **Hedging Strategies**: Positive spreads for finished products have a high profit - loss ratio; shrink the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference. [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: Rebar 01 contract may range from 2900 - 3300 with a volatility of 12.83% (24.5% percentile); hot - rolled coil 01 contract may range from 3100 - 3500 with a volatility of 10.54% (7.49% percentile). [7] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options. [7] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - **Negative Information**: The basis is gradually weakening. [11] 2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size. [14] - Next Tuesday: US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: No significant changes in the term structure of rebar, still in a deep Contango structure; the far - month of hot - rolled coil shows a Contango structure. [23] - **Hot - Rolled Coil to Rebar Price Difference**: Spot and futures price differences may continue to shrink. [20] - **Term Structure**: Rebar's term structure is stable, and hot - rolled coil's far - month shows Contango. [23] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: There are different seasonal patterns for rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads. [27][28][29] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Steel mill profitability has dropped below 40%, but blast furnace and electric furnace profits are improving, reducing the motivation for production cuts of the five major steel products. [30] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - There are various indicators for tracking hot - rolled coil export profits, such as seasonal patterns and relationships with export volumes and orders. [49] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Steel production (rebar and hot - rolled coil) has decreased, and inventory has also decreased slightly. Molten iron production and scrap consumption have decreased. [70] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Production is affected by profitability, furnace maintenance, and raw material consumption. Different steel products have different production trends. [76][77][80] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - There are various consumption forecasts for different steel products, and inventory levels also vary among different steel products. [90][93][103]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Ferroalloys are currently in a bottom - oscillating trend, with support from the cost side and suppression from high inventory and weakening downstream demand [2]. - The supply of ferroalloys is likely to continue to decrease due to seasonal patterns and declining profits, while the demand is expected to decline as hot metal production decreases [2]. - The high inventory of ferroalloys further restricts demand, and destocking may require production cuts [2]. - Despite the weak fundamentals, news about anti - involution competition and green - low - carbon transformation may cause a short - term rebound in ferroalloy prices, but price increases may stimulate hedging and suppress prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: Ferroalloy production generally shows a decreasing trend. Last week, silicon - manganese production increased slightly by 0.68% week - on - week, while silicon - iron production decreased by 2.30% week - on - week. Future production is likely to decrease further due to corporate losses [2]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to fall, and high inventory also inhibits demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprise inventories are at the highest levels in the past five years. Last week, silicon - manganese enterprise inventory increased by 1.73% and silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 7.16% week - on - week [2]. - **Trading Logic**: Near - term trading is based on cost support and weakening demand; long - term trading is influenced by anti - involution expectations and green - low - carbon transformation policies [4][5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategies**: All strategies (basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage) recommend waiting and seeing [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.32% and a historical percentile of 32.5% in three years. The monthly price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 12.21% and a historical percentile of 14.5% in three years [5]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, sell 15% of ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) when the price of silicon - iron is 5800 - 6000 and silicon - manganese is 6000 - 6200. For procurement management, buy 25% of ferroalloy futures when the price of silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 and silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 [5]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Ferroalloys are in a production - cut trend; magnesium ingot production in October increased by 21.96% month - on - month; downstream steel profits are gradually improving; anti - involution competition news and green - low - carbon transformation policies [6][7]. - **Negative Information**: Steel mill profit margins fell below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing; hot metal production is decreasing, reducing ferroalloy demand; ferroalloy enterprise inventories are increasing [7]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and November year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size. - Next Tuesday: The US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements**: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, with the silicon - iron contract in a backwardation structure at certain stages. The basis has narrow fluctuations, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may weaken further [10][11]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Downstream demand is weakening, and ferroalloy production enterprises are gradually incurring losses. The market expects ferroalloy production to continue to decrease [27]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume [57]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Supply: Ferroalloy production is expected to decline due to weakening downstream demand and falling production profits. - Demand: The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease as hot metal production declines. - Inventory: High inventory levels require production cuts for destocking [58]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Ferroalloy production is affected by production profits and seasonal patterns, and is expected to maintain a decreasing trend [62]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The demand for ferroalloys is related to hot metal production, steel enterprise profitability, and the production of downstream products such as magnesium ingots and steel products [66][68]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - The inventory of ferroalloys is at a high level, and the inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese is expected to change according to production and demand [82][89].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations; the near - month 01 contract of glass will follow the delivery logic with a focus on warehouse receipt games, while soda ash is cost - priced with limited upward valuation elasticity; currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, and soda ash is in a state of supply - demand surplus [2]. - For short - term trading, the 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. With unclear short - term drivers, it is advisable to observe [6]. Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: Some glass production lines may undergo cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, affecting far - month pricing. The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, and the middle - stream high inventory and off - season demand suppress spot prices [2]. - Soda ash: It is cost - priced. Although there are occasional supply cut - backs, new production capacities are pending, and the output remains at a medium - high level. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: There are still differences in the near - term spot market. The cold repair expectation and middle - stream high inventory require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. Observe due to unclear short - term drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average price of glass spot decreased slightly. The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 3.51%, the 09 contract by 3.02%, and the 01 contract by 2.2% [8][9]. - Soda ash: The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash also declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 2.34%, the 09 contract by 2.31%, and the 01 contract by 0.91% [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, leading to potential supply - side policy expectations [12]. - Bearish information: The high inventory of glass in the middle - stream persists, and there is still room for price cuts, affecting the delivery price of the 01 contract. New production capacities of soda ash are expected to be put into operation, and the expectation of glass cold repairs will reduce the rigid demand for soda ash [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near delivery. The increase in near - term cold repairs and middle - stream high inventory lead to differences in the spot market, while far - month supply cuts and cost increases may affect market pricing and expectations [15]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass began to narrow this week, showing a positive spread trend, mainly because the near - month contract has a low valuation and short - sellers shifted to far - month contracts. - Soda ash: It generally maintains a C - structure. This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread of soda ash strengthened from around - 70 to around - 30. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term outlook has deteriorated again [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas - fired production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,240 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1,170 yuan/ton [33][34]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in October exceeded 21 million tons, maintaining high expectations [36]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [43]. - Soda ash: The current daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 104,000 - 105,000 tons. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [46]. 5.2 Demand - side and Projections - Glass: Terminal demand remains weak, downstream replenishment is limited in the off - season, and the middle - stream maintains high - level low - price replenishment. The 01 contract mainly focuses on warehouse receipt games [49]. - Soda ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is temporarily stable, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken [58][59]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The manufacturer's inventory is 58.227 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.216 million weight boxes (- 2.05%), and a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [65]. - Soda ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4943 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons. The upstream inventory is being depleted, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good [65].

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——技术面为主 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从交易情绪来看，近期市场对平台公司已反应，后续的实际落地动作仍需关注。后续交易逻辑建议以价格走 势、量能变化为支撑的技术面逻辑为主。 光伏组件周度中标情况 元/瓦 光伏组件周度中标数据-中标均价 光伏组件项周度中 ...

南华期货铜产业周报 ——预期比现实更重要，铜价面临调整 南华有色金属研究团队 傅小燕 投资咨询证号：Z0002675 联系邮箱：fxiaoyan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/12/14 第一章 核心矛盾与策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周美联储如期降息，符合市场预期，铜价短暂休憩后借助市场情绪再创新高。但CME"美联储观察"将明 年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 40.4%，维持利率不变的概率为52%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.6% 。降息预期偏弱，投机资金高位减 仓。 基本面上，下游加工企业采购时畏高情绪仍在，但卖家高价出售意愿增强，市场继续呈现"有价无市"的状 态。LME铜注销仓单维持在60000吨上方，局部供应紧张支撑中国保税区铜溢价回升，目前出口窗口依然打 开。 展望下周，国内外将公布投资、失业率等宏观经济数据，可能增加铜价波动。临近年底，下游企业开工率预 期回升，供需双方将继续寻求平衡，预期铜价只能以回落来刺激需求，因此回落幅度相对受限。 趋势研判，阴极铜当前阶段: 上涨 ...

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——现货端悲观情绪带动下跌 戴一帆 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 研究助理: 顾恒烨 期货从业证号 F03143348 联系邮箱: guhy@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周聚烯烃盘面快速下跌，主要源于市场情绪持续悲观。上游持续降价出货，但未能有效激发下游投机性补 库意愿，整体成交未见明显好转，现货供应压力进一步累积。因此导致了盘面下跌的同时，基差进一步走弱 的情况。另外，从PE基本面来看，当前呈现供增需减的格局：在供应方面，年底装置计划性检修相对有限， 叠加前期检修的装置陆续重启，开工率回归高位，并且四季度仍有多套装置投产，供应压力持续增加。而在 需求端，下游需求旺季目前已进入尾声，农膜开工率呈现由升转降的趋势，后续需求的刚需支撑将有所转 弱。因此当前PE供需压力依然偏大，较难形成有力支撑。综合来看，若要看到盘面企稳回升，短期需要看到 现货端情况出现改善，而中长期需要看到PE供需情况出现实质性转好。 PE期现价格 元/吨 LLDPE膜华北现货价格 塑料主力基差(右轴) ...

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——复产扰动与强预期博弈 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅偏强震荡态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内锂矿 库存紧张程度、枧下窝复产进展、下游补库节奏、Q1下游排产，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存仍较为紧张。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市 场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游 库存降幅显著。12月份下游正极材料及动力电芯排产环比微增，市场需求维持强劲。同时，下游补库节奏亦 不容忽视，碳酸锂价格已连续上涨约1个月，涨价周期内下游对高价碳酸锂的采购意愿显著下降，以消耗自身 库存为主。若后续刚需补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。从技术面分析，当前面临较大回调压 力。 综合基本面等因素分析，在宁德复产扰动的背景 ...

南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——关注供应预期变化 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面支撑有限，淡季来临需求端有进一步走弱预期，碱厂库存偏高；估值上，液氯价格中性，氯碱利润虽 有下滑但产量偏高，供应压力持续 。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱。 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 30 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/0 ...

摘要：本周，南华综合指数下跌31.1点，跌幅为-1.21%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和螺纹钢，原油品种指数涨 跌幅为-3.58%，贡献度为-0.59%；螺纹钢品种指数涨跌幅为-3.07%，贡献度为-0.24%。南华工业品指数下跌84.82 点，跌幅为-2.42%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和焦炭，原油品种指数贡献度为-0.63%；焦炭品种指数贡献度 为-0.34%。南华金属指数下跌31.88点，跌幅为-0.48%；其中影响力最大的品种为螺纹钢，螺纹钢贡献度 为-0.56%。南华能化指数下跌53.35点，跌幅为-3.4 南华商品指数周报 2025年12月12日 指数发展部 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 摘要 本周,南华综合指数下跌31.1点，跌幅为−1.21%;其中影响力最大的品种为原油和螺纹钢,原油品种指数涨跌 幅为-3.58%，贡献度为-0.59%;螺纹钢品种指数涨跌跌幅为-3.07%，贡献度为-0.24%。南华工业品指数下跌 84.82点，跌幅为-2.42%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和焦炭， ...

宏观：中央经济工作会议如期举行 【市场资讯】1）中央经济工作会议在北京举行，习近平发表重要讲话。会议指出，要继续 实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，着力稳定房地产市场， 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，深入实施提振消费专项行动，清理消费领域不合理限制 措施。2）美国上周首申人数增 4.4 万人，创 2020 年来最大增幅，续请人数骤降至 8 个月 低点。3）黄金"囤积潮"退去，美国 9 月贸易逆差降至五年新低。 【核心逻辑】海外市场聚焦美联储政策动向，下一任主席人选敲定预期升温，哈塞特当选 概率较高。市场预判其上任后或推动更激进降息，但受鲍威尔任期、经济及通胀等因素制 约，降息落地存在不确定性，资产价格将呈现结构性分化。美联储如期再降息 25 基点，同 时宣布将购买短债，被市场解读为"不是 QE 的 QE"，此举有助于解决美元流动性偏紧格局， 调节利率曲线。国内方面，11 月制造业 PMI 止跌回升至 49.2%，主要受益于外需反弹；供 需剪刀差收窄、价格指数回升印证经济边际改善，但 PMI 仍处荣枯线下方，经济向好基础 尚不牢固。政治局会议定调积极，明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 ...