Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Date: 2025/09/19 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011]1290 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market should focus on the central bank's attitude. Currently, there is no clear right - hand side opportunity with high certainty in the market, and no definite negative news. The market fluctuates with sentiment and requires policy to set the tone. The operation idea is to buy on dips and take partial profits. The decline provides an opportunity for long - side left - hand side intervention, and attention should be paid to controlling positions and widening the buying intervals [2][4] Key Points from Different Sections 1.盘面点评 - On Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly in the morning, fell sharply in the afternoon, and rebounded slightly at the end of the session, with all varieties closing down. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds rose significantly in the afternoon. The open - market reverse repurchase was 35.43 billion yuan, with a net injection of 12.43 billion yuan. The money market eased, and DR001 fell to 1.46% [2] 2.日内消息 - The weighted winning bid yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.8321% and 2.1725% respectively, with the full - field multiples of 3.23 and 3.34, and the marginal multiples of 13.73 and 93.35 respectively [3] 3.行情研判 - Although the money market eased and the stock market fluctuated with shrinking volume today, the bond market did not benefit. After the primary issuance results were announced at noon, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond reopening was higher than the secondary market, which quickly deteriorated market sentiment and led to a sharp decline in the bond market in the afternoon [4] 4.国债期货日度数据 | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 19 | 2025 - 09 - 18 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.358 | 102.414 | - 0.056 | | TF2512 | 105.63 | 105.815 | - 0.185 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 108.065 | - 0.31 | | TL2512 | 114.88 | 115.68 | - 0.8 | | TS基差（CTD) | - 0.0347 | - 0.0528 | 0.0181 | | TF基差（CTD) | - 0.0542 | - 0.002 | - 0.0522 | | T基差（CTD) | 0.019 | 0.3044 | - 0.2854 | | TL基差（CTD） | 0.4458 | 0.5636 | - 0.1178 | | TS合约持仓(手） | 75499 | 76633 | - 1134 | | TF合约持仓(手） | 148476 | 150650 | - 2174 | | T合约持仓(手） | 249865 | 249992 | - 127 | | TL合约持仓(手） | 169501 | 169140 | 361 | | TS主力成交（手） | 35797 | 34264 | 1533 | | TF主力成交（手） | 92239 | 64176 | 28063 | | T主力成交（手） | 140197 | 93558 | 46639 | | TL主力成交（手） | 179539 | 129045 | 50494 | [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1147 points in the week from September 15th to 18th, up 4.65% week-on-week (with an expanding increase) and 29.16% year-on-year (with an expanding increase) [2]. - As of the week of September 12th, the shipping volume showed "one increase and three decreases." The US increased by 44.7%, Russia decreased by 11.72%, Saudi Arabia decreased by 10.7%, and the UAE decreased by 1.65% [2]. - As of September 17th, the number of crude oil tankers in the Red Sea/Aden Gulf region increased significantly [2]. - Last week, the US crude oil shipping volume continued to increase significantly week-on-week, driving up the demand for VLCC tankers, offsetting the negative impact of the week-on-week decline in the Middle East's crude oil shipping volume, and the BDTI freight rate index continued to rise [2]. - Important events to watch: Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [2]. Group 2: BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of September 18, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1147 points, up 4.65% week-on-week and 29.16% year-on-year [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate continued to rise this week, and the gap with the same period in 2024 widened [2]. Group 3: Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 35th week of 2025 (as of September 5th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance narrowed week-on-week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suezmax tankers both lengthened week-on-week, with the VLCC tanker's voyage distance lengthening by more than 15% [5]. - From September 13th to 17th, 2025, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased significantly. The average number of tanker passages in the Red Sea was 817, an increase of 61 from the previous week, including an increase of 3 in the number of crude oil tankers and 52 in the number of product tankers [6]. - In terms of the tanker passage in the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic increased this week. The tanker traffic in the Aden Gulf was 145, an increase of 11 from the previous week, including an increase of 12 in the number of crude oil tankers and 7 in the number of product tankers [6]. Group 4: Tanker Capacity - As of September 12, 2025, 9434 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 4 week-on-week and 87 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18364, an increase of 12 week-on-week and 465 year-on-year; the vessel delivery volume was 211, an increase of 2 week-on-week and 97 year-on-year; the vessel orders were 1325, an increase of 8 week-on-week and 41 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 221, a decrease of 4 week-on-week and an increase of 73 year-on-year [8]. - As of September 13th, the port capacity of VLCC and Aframax tankers decreased week-on-week, while the capacity of Suezmax tankers increased significantly week-on-week. Specifically, the number of VLCC tankers docked was 2224, a decrease of 35 week-on-week; the number of Aframax tankers docked was 2908, a decrease of 46 week-on-week; the number of Suezmax tankers docked was 3069, a significant increase of 873 week-on-week [8]. Group 5: Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, except for the US where the crude oil shipping volume continued to increase week-on-week, the crude oil shipping volumes of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE continued to decrease week-on-week [11]. - In terms of shipping vessel types, the US crude oil shipping volume rebounded significantly week-on-week. The demand for VLCC and Aframax tankers continued to rebound significantly week-on-week [11]. - Russia's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased week-on-week [11]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. Except for the rebound in the demand for VLCC tankers, the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased significantly week-on-week [11]. - The UAE's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers rebounded significantly week-on-week [12]. - From a seasonal perspective, the demand for Aframax tankers fluctuated the most this week, with the demand rebounding above the seasonal level [14]. - The total crude oil shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly this week, mainly due to the week-on-week rebound in the crude oil shipping volumes of Kuwait and Iraq [28]. Group 6: Crude Oil Arrival - In the current week, the crude oil arrival volumes in China, India, and the Netherlands decreased week-on-week, falling to the lowest levels in previous years [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, which marginally supported the transportation demand for large vessels such as Capesize ships. The week-on-week increase in the Capesize ship freight index BCI expanded, driving the further rise of the BDI composite freight index. Meanwhile, the increase in the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed, and the BPI freight index turned down, indicating weak freight rates on some routes. The significant increase in shipments from countries like Russia and Australia, especially the growth in wheat and soybean shipments, supported the transportation demand for Panamax and Handysize ships. The continued substantial increase in the shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize ships. Against the backdrop of the significant increase in agricultural product shipments and the high demand for industrial product shipments, dry bulk carriers continued to benefit [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis Compared with the data on September 11, except for the week-on-week decline of the BPI freight index, the week-on-week increase of the freight indices of other mainstream ship types continued. Among the sub - ship type freight indices, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index expanded to 12%, and the increase of the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed to less than 1%. However, the increase of the BDI composite freight index expanded. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2205 points, a week-on-week increase of 4.45%; the BCI freight index closed at 3411 points, a week-on-week increase of 12.17%; the BPI freight index closed at 1881 points, a week-on-week decrease of 5.86%; the BSI freight index closed at 1492 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.54%; the BHSI freight index closed at 809 points, a week-on-week increase of 1% [4]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize ships still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1378.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.18%; the FDI rental index closed at 1708.96 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%; among them, the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1883.36 points, a month - on - month increase of 4.23%; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1549.47 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the Handymax ship rental index closed at 1635.91 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the FDI freight index closed at 1158.92 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [9]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment by Shipping Countries on the Day The main shipping countries for industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main shipping countries for agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 19, among the main agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 54 ships for shipment, Russia used 20 ships, Argentina used 23 ships, Romania used 1 ship, and Australia used 4 ships. Among the main industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 57 ships, Guinea used 36 ships, Indonesia used 44 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 15 ships, Brazil used 15 ships, and the United States used 9 ships [13][14]. 2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis on the Day In terms of agricultural product shipments, 20 ships were used for corn shipments, 29 for wheat, 25 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 15 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 110 ships were used for coal, 77 for iron ore, and 14 for other dry goods. By ship type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post - Panamax ships (40), followed by 28 Handymax ships and 22 Handysize ships. The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize ships (96), followed by 69 Post - Panamax ships and 53 Handymax ships [15]. 3. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports The weekly data showed that except for the decrease in the number of ships at Australian ports, the number of ships at other ports increased week - on - week. In particular, the number of ships at major Chinese ports increased by 8. The data for mid - to - late September showed an increase at "four ports" with an expanding growth rate. It is expected that the number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports will increase by 4 week - on - week, the number of ships docked at six Australian ports will increase by 9, the number of ships at South African ports will increase by 2, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports will increase by 1 [15][16]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - Brazilian soybeans: On September 18, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40/ton. On September 19, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3986.98 yuan/ton. - Iron ore: On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30,205/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $120.8/thousand tons. - Steam coal: On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,490/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 555.93 yuan/ton. - Logs: On September 18, the Handysize ship freight index was quoted at 805.4 points. On September 19, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, London gold and silver may enter an adjustment phase. The support for London gold is lowered to 3600, with strong support at 3500, and resistance at 3650 and 3700. The support for London silver is 41, with strong support at 40.5, and the upper resistance levels are 42, 43, and the 44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips, and those who hold previous long positions should hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices showed mixed performance. London spot gold slightly declined, while spot silver, platinum, and palladium slightly increased. The precious metal market is in a bullish vacuum period after the Fed's interest rate cut, and may enter a phased consolidation stage. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3678.2 per ounce, down 1.07%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.1 per ounce, down 0.12%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 826.82 yuan per gram, down 1.72%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9835 yuan per kilogram, down 1.94%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years, causing precious metals to fall. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 83.9%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 975.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 15.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.9 tons to 1203.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious metal price data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts. Inventory data shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of relevant ETFs [5][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Other market data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [20].

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, and the market is now focused on the future interest - rate path and economic data, especially the labor market [1][2][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][2][4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to oscillate around the current level, and the policy guidance signal of the RMB central parity rate needs to be closely watched [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures declined due to the fulfillment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged due to the interest - rate cut cycles in both China and the US [4] - The small - and medium - cap stock index futures are relatively stronger in the short term, with limited downside space [4] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yield of most spot bonds rose. The market is waiting for the central bank's attitude [5] - The new 2Y and 7Y bonds issued last week have been included in the deliverable bonds, but have not significantly affected the futures price [5] Group 4: Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures prices oscillated slightly downward. The near - month contracts have fallen to a relatively appropriate level, but may continue to decline [6][7] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and wait and see, and look for low - buying opportunities in the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [7] Group 5: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation stage after the Fed's interest - rate cut. The market focus is on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and tariff policies [8] - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [9] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price declined due to the Fed's interest - rate decision. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a production reduction due to a mudslide [11] - The trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [11] Zinc - The zinc price was weak. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see for the internal - external reverse arbitrage or sell out - of - the - money call options [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by the market and were weak. The fundamentals have no obvious changes [14][15] Tin - The tin price declined slightly. The supply is tight in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [15][16] Lead - The lead price was in a high - level oscillation. The supply is relatively weak compared to the demand, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillation in the short term [16][17] Group 7: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were weak. The overall steel market is still in the process of inventory reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate after digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut [18] Iron Ore - The iron ore price oscillated around 800. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate based on fundamentals [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented. It is not recommended to short coking coal, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities at low basis [21] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were affected by the news of the increase in the standard of submerged arc furnaces in the metallurgical industry. The short - term price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to try long positions [22] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price fell slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term, and the probability of a short - term correction has increased [24][25] LPG - The LPG price declined. The supply is controllable, and the demand is lack of clear drivers, so it is expected to oscillate [25][26] PTA - PX - The PX - PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The polyester demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the PTA processing fee repair is limited [27][28][29] Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [29][30] PP - The PP price is supported by the cost side, but the demand is in the "peak season without peak" situation. The downward space is limited, and a rebound may occur if the device shutdown increases [31][32] PE - The PE price is in a weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upward drivers and limited downward space, and is expected to oscillate [34][35] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices are weak, with high inventory and low valuation. They are expected to oscillate and follow the cost side [36][37] Fuel Oil - It is recommended to short the cracking profit of fuel oil. The export volume is decreasing, and the demand is stable [37][38] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by the increase in supply and the inability to release demand. The inventory structure is improving. It may have a last chance to rise this year [39] Rubber and 20 - Rubber - The rubber prices fell. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is stable in the short term. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [40][41][42] Group 9: Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The soda ash price is under pressure due to the high - level supply expectation. The demand is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [43] Glass - The glass price lacks a clear trend. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand in the near term, and factors such as supply ignition and coal price need to be followed [44][45] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak in the spot market. The downstream demand is stable, and the supply fluctuates due to maintenance [46] Group 10: Pulp - The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The macro - level interest - rate cut has a positive impact, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers [46][47] Group 11: Propylene - The propylene price declined. The supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price followed the decline of PP [49][50] Group 12: Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The live pig price declined. The supply is still high in September, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51] Oilseeds - The soybean market is affected by Sino - US negotiations. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the downstream demand is stable [51][53] Vegetable Oils - The vegetable oil prices declined due to the uncertainty of the US bio - fuel policy. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54] Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 futures price rebounded slightly. The new - season soybean price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [54] Corn and Starch - The corn and starch prices are expected to be weak as new grains are gradually coming onto the market [53][56]

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/19 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 玉米中短期供需结构转向宽松，短期新季逐步上市带来的供应放量压制价格表现，但在进口压力继续缺位 下，价格下跌空间或较为有限； 玉米需求端仍有韧性，替代压力有限； CBOT玉米低位震荡，消化丰产压力，在我国进口谷物锐减背景下，国际谷物价格对国内传导度有望下降； 连盘玉米期货短期消化新季上市压力，弱势震荡运行； 淀粉期货跟随玉米回落，后期成本下降预期及消费旺季到来下，价格或区间运行为主； 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 玉米&淀粉期货盘面价格 | | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-18 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米11 | 2161 | 2177 | 16 | 0.74% | | 玉米01 | 2155 | 2164 | 9 | 0.42% | | 玉米03 | 2166 | 2174 | 8 | 0.37% | | 玉米05 | 2224 | ...

EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1250~1350 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1000~1100 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货（EC）价格震荡略偏弱。 截至收盘，EC各合约价格都有不同程度回落。从 交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓1351手至26470手，空头减仓1337手至27460 手，交易量减少23795手至23360手（双边）。 如此前预期，近月合约较前期 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed a weak intraday oscillation. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was sluggish, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals. There were concerns about the supply of nickel ore, while the new energy sector provided support. The stainless - steel market had limited actual transactions, and the overall market momentum was calm. The Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, leading to a weak overall market [4]. 3. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [4]. Core Contradictions - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures oscillated weakly intraday. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Indonesia issued the second - phase benchmark price for nickel ore, and there were concerns about supply due to government interventions and upcoming quota approvals. The new energy sector provided support, and cobalt price increases drove up the prices of MHP and nickel salts [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Nickel - iron quotes were firm, but high - price transactions declined. Stainless - steel spot sales tried to stimulate transactions by reducing prices, but actual transactions were limited [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel - ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - mining areas by the Indonesian forestry working group [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High pure - nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea, and weak stainless - steel spot transactions [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract was 120,940 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M was 15,335 US dollars/ton. Some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,055 tons (up 1,125 tons), LME nickel inventory was 228,450 tons (down 18 tons), nickel - pig - iron inventory was 28,652 tons (down 614.5 tons) [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract was 12,875 yuan/ton, and some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Stainless - steel social inventory was 897.2 tons (down 5.4 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 5,119 tons (a 5.37% decline) [6][7]. Industry News - Ningde Times and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel - integrated smelter [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the domestic market may not have an urgent need to follow suit. The central bank may need to use various tools to inject liquidity. If the central bank does not make a statement in the short term, the market's upside potential will be limited. The trading strategy is not to chase the rise, and long positions can be entered at low levels [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - On Thursday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated within a range, closing down across the board. Except for the 1 - year bond, the yields of spot bonds rose. The open - market reverse repurchase was 487 billion yuan, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan. The funding situation remained tight, and DR001 rose to 1.51% [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, emphasizing the downside risk of employment and an increase in inflation. It is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. Milan cast the only dissenting vote, advocating a 50 - basis - point rate cut. The central bank will tender and issue 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22 [2] 3.2. Futures Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 18 Price | 2025 - 09 - 17 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 18 Position | 2025 - 09 - 17 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.414 | 102.45 | - 0.036 | 76,633 | 79,034 | - 2,401 | | TF2512 | 105.815 | 105.87 | - 0.055 | 150,650 | 147,322 | 3,328 | | T2512 | 108.065 | 108.135 | - 0.07 | 249,992 | 246,189 | 3,803 | | TL2512 | 115.68 | 115.82 | - 0.14 | 169,140 | 166,472 | 2,668 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0528 | - 0.0395 | - 0.0133 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.002 | - 0.0011 | - 0.0009 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.3044 | 0.2948 | 0.0096 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5636 | 0.5555 | 0.0081 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 34,264 | 38,558 | - 4,294 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,176 | 70,704 | - 6,528 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 93,558 | 101,611 | - 8,053 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 129,045 | 132,135 | - 3,090 | | | | [3] 3.3. Other Charts - The report also includes charts of the basis and IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing rates and policy rates, exchange financing rates, and US Treasury bond yield trends and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][10][11][15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Today, the stock market oscillated and declined with a significant increase in trading volume in both the stock and futures markets. After the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed, the demand for profit - taking at high levels and short - hedging is expected to rise. The electronics, communication, and social service industries related to holidays showed relative resilience. The market has already priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year, so today's stock market correction was expected. Given the large trading volume, there is a need to be vigilant about an enlarged correction. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and the support of the 20 - day moving average of the stock index. If the closing price falls below the 20 - day moving average, the downside space may open further. Additionally, the further development of Sino - US trade relations is a major short - term uncertainty [4] Group 3: Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index had a large - scale increase in volume, and the scale index weakened overall. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 1.16%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 7584.20 billion yuan. All stock index futures declined with increased volume [2] Group 4: Important Information Summary - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue, stating that it will never seek any agreement at the expense of principles, corporate interests, and international fairness and justice [3] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.35 | -1.45 | -1.00 | -1.19 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 22.0019 | 10.0595 | 23.6268 | 42.8973 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 5.752 | 3.5836 | 7.2444 | 14.307 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 28.8603 | 11.4842 | 27.1127 | 40.5154 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4691 | 1.0071 | 1.9056 | 2.5806 | [5] Group 6: Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.15 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.06 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.22 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 31351.58 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 7584.20 | [6] Group 7: Other Data Summaries - Data on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength, and index premium/discount rates are presented in graphical forms, showing trends over different time periods from 2023 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]