Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the New Year's Day, geopolitical conflicts caught market attention again. The US escalated sanctions and military operations under the pretext of "drug - busting" and carried out a "decapitation operation" to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3. However, under the same geopolitical disturbance, the futures prices of asphalt and crude oil showed a significant divergence [1]. - The event led to the retracement of geopolitical premium for international crude oil. The reasons are that the market had fully priced in the geopolitical disturbance, Venezuela's oil production and exports accounted for a small proportion in global trade, and the current supply areas were stable with increasing supply and potential demand decline due to refinery maintenance. There is still some uncertainty in the Iranian domestic situation and the Israel - Iran situation [2]. - For asphalt, most of Venezuela's exported crude oil is suitable for asphalt production, and more than 60% is exported to China. The market is worried about future raw material supply shortages, and with low refinery inventory pressure, asphalt cracking has strengthened significantly [3]. - For the future of crude oil, OPEC+ will keep increasing production in Q1, and global refineries will enter the maintenance peak from February to May, suppressing demand. With weak fundamentals, short - term neutral macro - environment, and the end of the Venezuelan situation, the focus returns to the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations. If geopolitical disturbances provide a safety margin, short - selling on rebounds is worth considering in Q1. For asphalt, due to concerns about raw material supply and low refinery inventory, long - positions in asphalt cracking and 03, 06 basis are worth expecting as demand recovers seasonally [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Core Data - Crude Oil - In 2026, the global crude oil supply growth rate is significantly faster than demand, and the supply side is the dominant variable. Non - OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada provide stable increments, and OPEC+ nominal capacity poses potential pressure. The overall supply growth rate is faster than demand recovery, keeping inventory high and pushing the price down [5]. Core Data - Asphalt - The main factors influencing asphalt fluctuations include the tightness of raw materials (affected by sensitive oil premiums, port logistics, and refinery import quotas), capacity issues (although nominal capacity is sufficient, many refineries cannot operate at full capacity), and industrial policies (such as the consumption tax reform pilot in Shandong). It is expected that in 2026, the absolute price of asphalt will follow crude oil, while there will be structural opportunities in cracking, basis, and monthly spreads [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the biggest contradiction in methanol lies in the improvement of the willingness to hold goods. Despite high port inventories, the negotiable inventory is limited. With the slow unloading speed, the methanol port has become a market of stock - based competition. The concentration of cargo rights has led to an increase in port basis, and the strong inland demand has continuously relieved the pressure on the port. In the medium - term, port contradictions will gradually ease. The slow arrival of goods will stretch the inventory accumulation slope, and the pressure of high supply at the port will gradually decrease. From the perspective of port inventories alone, the 05 contract is in a process of gradual inventory reduction. Inland, after the commissioning of Lianhong, traders' bullish sentiment was strong, especially with the maintenance of Jiutai, bringing a prosperous period. However, with Jiutai's resumption, there are signs of weakness. In the long - run, the inland supply - demand situation is still relatively healthy. As an intermediate product, methanol needs to consider the valuation of its upstream and downstream industries. From the perspective of coal and olefin downstream, the valuation is at a low level, and the upside potential of methanol is limited. In summary, under the expectation of inventory reduction, it is difficult for methanol to reach new lows, but its upward movement is restricted by upstream and downstream industries. Attention should be paid to the demand increment brought by the commissioning of new plants. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Methanol Market Review - **First Quarter**: The market was volatile. The article about the Iranian energy crisis in the New York Times triggered a sharp increase in domestic sentiment, with the futures price and port paper - based basis rising significantly. Then, the shutdown of Xingxing at the MTO end led to an expectation of olefin - end shutdown, causing the methanol price to rise first and then fall. After the Spring Festival, there was a large - scale seasonal inventory accumulation inland, and the market price decreased. After the price of inland methanol was oversold, the procurement by coastal olefin producers provided support. The Spring maintenance plans of major plants such as Xin'ao, Rongxin, Huayu, and Jiutai Dalu in March also contributed to the price rebound. The main contradiction was the recovery time of Iranian plants. With the gradual recovery of inland MTO external procurement and downstream operations, the bottom price of methanol was supported. By the end of the first quarter, Iranian plants returned, and the shipping volume recovered, ending the bullish story. - **Second Quarter**: Methanol prices were greatly affected by macro factors. The change in US tariff policy and the outbreak of the Iran - Israel conflict had an impact on the market. The US tariff increase and China's counter - measures led to a decline in methanol valuation. Later, the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks and a larger - than - expected tariff reduction improved market sentiment, and methanol prices rose. The Iran - Israel conflict increased geopolitical risks. As China is the world's largest methanol consumer and imports a large amount of methanol from Iran, the conflict led to concerns about supply and an increase in downstream costs, pushing up the methanol valuation. After the conflict, the rapid decline in methanol prices was mainly due to the disappearance of "geopolitical premium" rather than a weakening of fundamentals. - **Third Quarter**: The Iran - Israel conflict cooled down, but the shadow of war remained. Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, accelerating the loading of ships. The domestic anti - involution sentiment cooled down, and the cost - end price decreased. The methanol price fluctuated downward with intermittent rebounds. The high - level of overseas imports led to a historical high in port inventories, while the inland market was strong due to continuous external procurement by MTO plants. The theoretical reverse - flow window at the port remained open. In September, there was uncertainty about Iranian shipping. If Iranian plants shut down, it would support the price in the fourth quarter, and the methanol price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. - **Fourth Quarter**: Before the shutdown of Iranian plants, the import volume from Iran exceeded expectations, and the shipping volume reached a historical high. The port basis continued to decline, and the port inventory accumulation accelerated, putting pressure on the port basis. The 1 - 5 month spread first decreased and then rebounded due to the relatively fast shipping in the early stage of the fourth - quarter Iranian shipping. 3.2 2026 Methanol Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - Side Device Commissioning - **Domestic**: In 2025, the domestic methanol new - project volume was considerable, and most projects were equipped with downstream facilities. The production process of new projects in 2025 involved coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, and carbon dioxide hydrogenation - based methods. Three new plants were commissioned in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total upstream production capacity of 6.7 million tons, and most of them were配套 with downstream facilities. In 2026, the planned commissioning production capacity was 5.55 million tons, including large - scale projects such as China Coal Yulin and Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng, but they were all配套 with downstream facilities, so the actual external sales volume was limited. - **Overseas**: In 2025, the overseas new commissioning production capacity was 3.4 million tons, including Sarawak in Malaysia (1.75 million tons/year) and Apadana in Iran (1.65 million tons/year). In 2026, attention should be paid to the 1.65 - million - ton/year Denapetro (DPC) plant in Iran. - **Iranian Shipping**: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the early arrival of overseas cold snaps led to the shutdown of some Iranian plants and a strengthening of the port basis. In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly average shipping volume from Iran was about 210,000 tons, and the import volume decreased by 40% compared with the first quarter of 2024 due to the delayed restart of Iranian plants. In the second quarter, the Iran - Israel conflict affected Iranian methanol production areas, and the shipping volume in June decreased sharply. In the third quarter, the conflict cooled down, and Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, with a monthly average shipping volume of 960,000 tons, putting pressure on the port. 3.2.2 Demand - Side Device Commissioning - **MTO Demand in 2026**: In 2025, one new MTO plant (Inner Mongolia Baofeng) was commissioned in the first quarter. Shandong Lianhong was postponed until December 2025. In 2026, a Guangxi Huayi MTO plant is expected to be commissioned in May. - **Traditional Demand in 2025**: In the first quarter, the downstream weighted operating rate was relatively high compared with the historical average, driven by the inland MTO demand. The MTBE demand increased significantly, with more export orders and new plant commissioning. In the second quarter, the downstream situation was affected by summer maintenance, but the operating rate was still acceptable. In the third quarter, the traditional downstream operating rate weakened, but the demand was resilient, with the demand increment mainly in acetic acid and MTBE. - **New Downstream Commissioning in 2026**: In 2025, the new downstream demand pattern was acceptable, with a slower growth rate compared with 2024. The new downstream industries mainly included BDO, acetic acid, silicone, formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF, with BDO and acetic acid having the largest new production capacity. In 2026, there are many new downstream commissioning plans, including MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, BDO, and ethanol projects, which will support the methanol demand. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Views - **Balance Sheet**: The 05 contract is in a process of continuous inventory reduction. In the short - term, the port is a stock - based competition market due to the improvement of the willingness to hold goods, slow unloading speed, and concentrated cargo rights, which has led to an increase in port basis. The strong inland demand has relieved the port pressure. In the long - run, the port contradictions will ease, and the pressure of high supply will decrease. Inland, the supply - demand situation is relatively healthy in the long - run, although there are short - term fluctuations. - **Strategy Views**: The future game points of methanol may include the inventory accumulation expectation after Iran's return (continued high - volume shipping), the huge demand increment brought by the commissioning of Huayi, and the limited upside potential of methanol due to the pressure on upstream and downstream industries.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brazil's soybean is in a critical water - demand period, with 22.6% in the flowering stage, 38.5% in the vegetative growth stage, and 37.3% in the grain - filling stage, and some early - sown soybeans are in the mature harvest stage [1][20]. - Argentina's soybean planting area has increased by 6.5% week - on - week to 82%, with 97% of the sown area having suitable or better water conditions, and 17.3% of the first - season soybeans in the reproductive growth stage. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete [1][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Brazil's Regional Conditions - **Mato Grosso**: The field growth is good, having overcome the negative impact of uneven rainfall in November. The replanting area is within the historical average range, and the harvest is about to start [1][20]. - **Goias**: Sowing is nearing completion. Rainfall has become regular, and the phenomena of missing seedlings and uneven growth in the fields have significantly reduced [1][20]. - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Continuous rainfall continues to benefit the crops, with most plots in the reproductive growth stage and high - yield potential [1][20]. - **Minas Gerais**: Sowing has been completed, and the recent decrease in rainfall is conducive to pesticide spraying [1][20]. - **Bahia**: Alternating sunny and rainy weather is conducive to crop growth and the last - stage sowing operations [1][20]. - **Parana**: The harvest has started, about 1/3 of the area is in the grain - filling stage, and most crops are developing well [1][21]. - **Rio Grande do Sul**: Recent rainfall has restored the previously drought - hindered vegetative growth, provided germination conditions for the plots sown in early December, and promoted the smooth continuation of sowing work [1][21]. Argentina's Regional Conditions - **Buenos Aires**: The soybean growth in the two core production areas and the western part of Buenos Aires is more rapid, and the area is expected to receive rainfall to meet the critical water - demand period of the crops. The sowing of late - sown soybeans is 71.9% complete, and the overall emergence is good [41]. International Soybean Annual Focus Points - **January**: U.S. soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [59]. - **February**: U.S. export volume, Chinese import volume, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [59]. - **March**: Brazilian export volume, South American production, and U.S. sowing area [59]. - **April**: South American production, U.S. sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **May**: U.S. sowing area, Chinese sowing area, and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **June**: U.S. yield level and Brazilian export volume [59]. - **July - September**: U.S. yield level [59]. - **October**: U.S. yield level, production, and South American planting area [59]. - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [59]. - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. export volume [59]. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [67]. - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods (continuous rain), drought [67]. - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, drought, and pests [67]. - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50%. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [67].

——春节前下游补库节奏渐起 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月05日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅震荡偏强态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂 资源释放进度、国内锂矿库存紧张程度、下游需求的可持续性，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存紧张程度有所缓解，2026年1月份锂矿进口量持续放量，一定程度上可以缓解 市场锂矿紧张程度。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"经过持续不断的炒作后，市场对此消息的反应已经减 弱，建议直接关注公司公告和工厂实际开工情况。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游库存降幅 显著。同时，下游补库节奏亦不容忽视，预计后续春节前补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。 综合基本面等因素分析，中长期看，行业基本面支撑下的长期价值并未改变，碳酸锂仍具备逢低布多的机 会。操作层面，建议投资者聚焦回调后的结构性做多机会，依托基本面锚定合理估值区间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a wide - range oscillation, and it was difficult to judge the trend. The core logic of the price trend focused on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The industry's fundamentals presented a "weak supply and demand" characteristic. The polysilicon production was on a downward trend, and the expansion of industry supply slowed down significantly. The production of downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components was also under pressure, and the overall industrial chain was contracting. The polysilicon inventory remained at a recent high without an obvious inflection point. The component tendering market was weak this week, with a decline in both the tendering quantity and the average transaction price [2]. - The subsequent trading logic was recommended to be based on the technical analysis supported by price trends and volume - energy changes, as the fundamentals were temporarily ineffective [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price included supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The near - term trading logic (before the Spring Festival in 2026) involved warehouse receipt registration, supply - and - demand side reduction and shutdown, and technical - side long - position holdings. The long - term trading logic (after the Spring Festival in 2026) included observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies, photovoltaic policies, and downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [7]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - The polysilicon futures price was expected to oscillate widely, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - For polysilicon sales, to prevent price drops and profit losses, enterprises could sell far - month futures contracts according to production plans (20% recommended hedging ratio) or use a combined option strategy (10% recommended hedging ratio). For polysilicon procurement, different hedging strategies were recommended based on different procurement models, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 20% [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 26, the two ministries stated that by 2030, the power grid would accept 900GW of distributed new energy, with an expected increase of 400GW. - On December 30, Zhonglai Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary won the bid for a photovoltaic component project [9]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 58,145 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.53%. The trading volume was 36,300 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76.92%, and the open interest was 136,500 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76,300 lots. The month - spread between PS2602 and PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 720 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, a week - on - week increase of 70 lots [11]. - Technically, the polysilicon futures price ran near the 20 - day line, showing a "long - and - short position reduction and oscillation" feature. It also ran near the middle of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band oscillated and narrowed [12]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon was still in a strong - oscillation state, the implied volatility of at - the - money options showed a weak - oscillation trend, and the PCR of option open interest was in a weak - oscillation state, indicating a decreasing bearish sentiment in the market. The net long - position scale showed signs of reduction, and the futures term structure was in a chaotic state [14][16][18]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of change this week. For example, the price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1.72% week - on - week, and the price index of silicon wafers increased by 10.00% week - on - week [24]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises was stable. The spot profit of polysilicon showed a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method was higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures was about 35.42% [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon production showed different trends. SMM's weekly production was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%, while Baichuan's weekly production was 26,580 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The total domestic polysilicon inventory was 537,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% [30][35]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.18GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%, and the weekly inventory was 23.19GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.92% [38]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 8.63GW, a week - on - week decrease of 14.21% [48]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [54]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 361.73MW, a week - on - week decrease of 78.55%, and the average winning bid price was 0.74 yuan/watt, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% [56]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - No specific data analysis was provided in the text, but there were charts related to China's monthly new photovoltaic installation volume and green power generation [59][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs before the Spring Festival, cost - based pricing for soda ash with new capacity on the way, and high inventories in the glass mid - stream and an ongoing capacity expansion cycle for soda ash [1]. - The glass market has a weak spot price due to high mid - stream inventories and the off - season. The soda ash market is affected by new capacity expectations and high inventories, but its upstream inventory reduction is better than expected [2]. - Glass and soda ash markets are in a state of oscillation without clear trends, and observation is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which impacts long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy - related supply disturbances cannot be excluded [1]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Despite occasional supply cuts, new capacity is pending, and production remains at a medium - high level. Its valuation lacks upward potential without a trend of production reduction, and its demand is expected to decline with potential glass cold repairs [1]. - In reality, the high mid - stream glass inventories need to be digested. For soda ash, the capacity expansion cycle continues, and an oversupply situation is expected [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - Glass spot is weak, with cold repair expectations and high mid - stream inventories. Cost and supply expectations affect long - term pricing. The 05 contract is more about expectations. The glass and soda ash markets lack clear trends and are oscillating, so observation is recommended [7]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: Some prices decreased slightly on January 5, 2026. For example, the average price of沙河交割品 dropped by 1 yuan compared to the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 09 contract having the largest decline rate of - 0.67% [11]. - Soda ash spot prices: Most regional prices remained stable on January 5, 2026, except for a 20 - yuan decrease in the light soda ash price in the central China region [13]. - Soda ash futures prices: The 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased on January 5, 2026, with the 05 contract having the largest decline rate of - 2.65% [14]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Some glass production line cold repairs are expected to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, which may lead to supply - side policy expectations [14]. - Negative information: New soda ash capacity is expected to increase, and the renewed glass cold repair expectations will affect soda ash demand [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - Glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transaction situations [19]. 3. Disk Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The glass 05 contract has unclear expectations, with weak supply and demand and no clear signals. Near - term spot pressure is high, and mid - stream inventories are high. Long - term supply reduction and cost increase are expected, but demand is unclear [20]. - Basis and spread structure: The glass 5 - 9 spread oscillates without a clear direction. The soda ash market maintains a C - structure, and its long - term situation may worsen with new capacity [25][26]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in the red, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits [42]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1210 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in central China is around 1105 yuan/ton [43]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [50]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 tons, meeting expectations and accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The November export was close to 19 tons, maintaining high export expectations [50]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 15.1 - 15.2 tons. Some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting volume is expected to decline further [56]. - Soda ash supply: The current daily production of soda ash fluctuates slightly around 10.5 - 10.7 tons. The first phase (100 tons) of the Alxa Phase II project has started trial production, and the 70 - ton new capacity of Yingcheng Xindu is pending [59]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: Mid - stream glass inventories remain high, and spot pressure exists. As of the end of December, glass deep - processing orders and raw material inventories decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to decline by 7.5%. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream restocking during the off - season is limited [62]. - Soda ash demand: The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 24 tons, showing a slight decline. The daily demand for soda ash is about 4.8 tons. With potential glass cold repairs, soda ash demand is expected to decline. Photovoltaic glass inventories are accumulating, and its cold repair expectations should be monitored. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to decline by 0.2% [73][74]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the total glass factory inventory is 56.866 million weight - cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million weight - cases (- 3.00%) and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days are 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. Mid - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [82]. - Soda ash: The soda ash inventory is 1.4083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons. The light soda ash inventory is 732,200 tons, a decrease of 3300 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 676,100 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 390,400 tons (a decrease of 4700 tons). The combined factory and delivery warehouse inventory is 1.7987 million tons, a decrease of 34,900 tons. The upstream inventory reduction exceeds expectations [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Oscillating Upward" [5] Core Viewpoints - After a period of weak fundamentals, methanol prices have rapidly increased. The main trigger was Trump's statement about potentially restarting sanctions on Iran, which reignited market concerns about Iranian methanol plants. The most significant change was the shift in the inventory accumulation expectation. Methanol is likely to enter an oscillating upward phase [2] - The near - term trading logic is driven by the enhanced willingness to hold inventory due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants. The long - term trading expectation focuses on how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the methanol 2601 contract cannot be resolved, and the 2605 contract is expected to be stronger than the 2601 contract, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9][10] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Overseas market turmoil during the holiday, including conflicts between the US and Venezuela and unrest in Iran, may provide short - term support for crude oil prices and increase the risk premium. The main contradiction in the methanol market lies in the shift of inventory accumulation expectations and concerns about MTO profits [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market first rose and then fell, the 01 base - spread remained stable [12] - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread moved in a positive spread direction [13] - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to oscillate within a short - term range. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200 in the short term. The strategy recommendation is to reduce the position of short put options on methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [14] 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The document provides various charts and data on inland methanol inventory, including seasonal inventory in the northwest region, inventory of methanol plants in the south and north lines, and the amount of pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][22][24] 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The document presents multiple charts and data on port inventory, such as weekly port inventory seasonality in China, inventory in different provinces and warehouses, and the shipping volume in Taicang [32][41][43] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range for methanol in the coming month is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [58] - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management based on different scenarios, including using futures contracts, put options, and call options [58] - **Positive News**: The 450,000 - ton MTO unit of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the product will be available after the completion of post - holiday device approval procedures [59] - **Negative News**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [60] 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - The fundamental support is average. Although producers have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they intend to maintain low inventory and sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling, leading to a decline in the market in the sales areas [62] Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - In the inland market, with the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will decrease, and the supply - demand pattern in the production areas is expected to weaken. In the sales areas, the demand is expected to increase. The price in the southern sales areas is strongly supported and is expected to remain higher than that in the northern production areas [63] - This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread oscillated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [65] Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document provides price trends of coal at the Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, as well as the market prices of methanol in Lunan and Taicang. It also shows data on methanol warehouse receipts and valuation [68][71][74] 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document presents the production costs of methanol from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, and coke oven gas) in different regions, as well as the seasonal profits of methanol production and related downstream products [80][82][85] 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Start - up Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - The document shows the weekly start - up rates of major methanol enterprises, different production methods (natural gas, coke oven gas), and downstream MTO units. It also provides data on the weekly production of methanol from different sources [87][91][96] 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The document provides seasonal data on methanol imports from Malaysia, Venezuela, and Iran, as well as information on price differences and import profits [122][123][124] 4.5 Overseas Start - up Tracking - The document shows the seasonal capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol plants, overseas weekly production, and the start - up rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants [126][127] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The document provides a supply - demand balance sheet projection for the methanol market from January 2025 to May 2026, including data on imports, production, demand, inventory, and inventory changes [130]

五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等政策，市场氛围偏暖将有助橡胶 估值支撑。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——情绪偏暖烘托，胶价偏强整理，谨慎围护桩 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，尤其是RU在国内产区临近全面停割且仓单偏少情况下，或受估值"补涨"逻辑驱动 更显著，预期改善推动主力合约上涨，RU1-5价差维持平水波动，RU5-9价差走高。PMI数据显示12月国内制 造业转暖，下游需求预期升温。但橡胶整体基本面仍承压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配 套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承 压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎开工有所下滑， 交投情绪偏弱。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换 和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the beginning of 2026, the intensity of the La Niña phenomenon remained weak, with no significant deviation in overall rainfall in Southeast Asia, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago decreased, with rainfall concentrated in East Malaysia and most parts of Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula had poor soil moisture, and drought might spread further after February. Most areas in Indonesia had abundant rainfall, significantly alleviating soil moisture. The rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak in Malaysia was acceptable, with good soil moisture across the country, but the rest of the regions still faced a risk of soil dryness. Attention should be paid to the drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and western Kalimantan in Indonesia [1] - There was a lack of short - term disruptive weather events. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation did not improve, it might affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区降水预报 - Recent rainfall in the production areas has shown differentiation, with less rainfall in Malaysia [3] 3.2产区土壤湿度 - The Malay Peninsula has insufficient rainfall and poor soil moisture [9] 3.3 Indonesia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.3.1占碑（Jambi） - Rainfall at the beginning of the year increased soil moisture [21] 3.3.2西卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Barat） - Abundant rainfall has led to moist soil [28] 3.3.3中卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Tengah） - The soil moisture level is higher than the same period last year [34] 3.3.4东卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Timur） - Abundant precipitation has resulted in moist soil [42] 3.3.5廖内（Riau） - Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [49] 3.3.6南苏门答腊（Sumatera Selatan） - Rising rainfall is expected to bring soil moisture above the 20 - year average [56] 3.3.7北苏门答腊（Sumatera Utara） - Rainfall returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [62] 3.4 Malaysia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.4.1柔佛（Johor） - Limited rainfall at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to whether soil moisture decreases [69] 3.4.2彭亨（Pahang） - Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [75] 3.4.3霹雳（Perak） - Rainfall decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture declined [82] 3.4.4沙巴（Sabah） - Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [88] 3.4.5沙捞越（Sarawak） - Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].