1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Rainy - season shipping is gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is strengthening. Also, the overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [11][21]. - **Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [11][68][70]. - **Mineral End**: Recently, domestic bauxite production has declined due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south. Domestic ore prices remain firm, but alumina plants' willingness to lower prices has increased due to shrinking profits. For imported ores, the shipping volume is stable, port inventory is rising, and ore prices are under further pressure after the rainy season [12]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [12][43]. - **Import and Export**: As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [12][50]. - **Demand Side**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [12][60]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The decline in alumina spot prices in various regions narrowed this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 15 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and increased by 5 yuan/ton respectively. The inventory accumulation trend continued, and most regional spot prices were still under pressure [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 p.m. on November 21, the alumina index fell 3.76% to 2737 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 0.1 million lots to 57.3 million lots. The Fed's hawkish stance and the unsolved alumina supply - surplus situation led to a further decline in alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was 2775 yuan/ton, with a premium of 71 yuan/ton over the December 12 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 107 yuan/ton, and the weak spot made the near - month contract relatively weaker [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: This week, bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged. For imported ores, the Guinea CIF price decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton to 71.5 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at 68 US dollars/ton. After the impact of the rainy season in Guinea subsided, the ore shipping volume increased. The shrinking profit led to an enhanced willingness of alumina enterprises to lower prices. Coupled with the high port inventory, ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production was 477 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 5052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.22%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production has been decreasing month by month [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In October 2025, China imported 1377 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total import was 17140 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [33]. - **Bauxite Import by Country**: In October 2025, China imported 900 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Guinea was 12743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. Affected by the rainy season, it declined and is expected to gradually recover later. In October 2025, China imported 382 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year increase of 3.48% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative import from Australia was 3160 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.23% [35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In October, China's bauxite inventory increased by 24 million tons, with the total inventory reaching 5250 million tons, still at a near - five - year high, and enterprises' ore inventory was sufficient. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 28 million tons, and that in Henan decreased by 36 million tons in October. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In October 2025, alumina production was 796.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 7480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [42]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In October 2025, the alumina operating capacity was 9640 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.57% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. As of November 21, 2025, the weekly alumina output was 184.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.2 million tons from last week [43]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price has declined, and alumina plant profits are under pressure. According to the alumina spot price on November 21, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic ores, the current production profit can reach 155 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinea ores in Shandong are 0 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively, approaching the loss situation. The cost of transporting port - imported ores for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, the use of overseas ores in Shanxi and Henan has slightly turned into losses [46]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In October 2025, the net alumina import was 1.36 million tons. The opening of the import window earlier drove the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The import volume increased from 6 million tons last month to 18.93 million tons, and the export volume decreased from 24.64 million tons to 17.57 million tons. In the first ten months of 2025, the total net export was 143.75 million tons. As of November 21, the Australian FOB price decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 41 yuan/ton. Overseas alumina prices have been fluctuating in the range of 315 - 320 US dollars recently, and the domestic spot price has been continuously declining, leading to a decrease in import profit and loss [48][50]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In October 2025, overseas alumina production was 541 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.84% and a month - on - month increase of 3.36%. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production was 5191 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.24% [52]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total production was 3687 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [57]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Rate**: In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4456 million tons, the same as last month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in October remained at 97.47% [60]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (including estimated values for November and December), showing data on alumina supply, demand, import, export, and the supply - demand difference for each month [63]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: Alumina's total social inventory increased by 4.3 million tons to 488.3 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 3.2 million tons, decreased by 2 million tons, increased by 3.7 million tons, and decreased by 0.6 million tons respectively [68]. - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.27 million tons to 25.09 million tons this week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.58 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from last week. The supply of circulating spot became looser, and the warehouse receipt registration volume further increased this week [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term following gold and silver prices, and the lease rates indicate that the fundamentals of platinum group metals remain strong. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the Fed will form new monetary policy drivers in December [9] - NYMEX platinum is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern, with limited further downward space. NYMEX palladium is expected to maintain a weak volatile pattern, and the probability of a strong performance in the short - term is low [12][15] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract closing price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's active - contract closing price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce this week [9] - **Policy Impact**: After New York Fed President Williams' dovish speech, the market's probability pricing for a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting rose to 70%. Platinum prices were supported at the $1,480 per ounce level [9] - **Lease Rates**: As of November 21, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum was 14.72%, and for palladium was 10.73%, both at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years [9] - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 21, CME platinum inventory was 19.12 tons, and palladium inventory was 5.39 tons, both at relatively high levels in recent years [9] 3.2. Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 70,090 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price was 399.32 yuan per gram, and the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy [21][25] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's active - contract price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 22,771 lots [22] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the reporting period on October 7, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long position was 18,487 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short position was 4,063 lots [34][37] 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum**: As of November 21, the total platinum ETF position was 75.38 tons, and CME platinum inventory was 19.19 tons [48][55] - **Palladium**: As of November 21, the total palladium ETF position was 14.75 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5,387.88 kilograms [51][60] 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be 41.36 tons [69] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [72][75] 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant data on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant data on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [103] - **London Spot - NYMEX Spread**: The spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices are presented [105]

情绪遇冷， 关注需求走向 碳酸锂周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：11月21日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报93311元，周涨7.57%，其中MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为93550元。同日广期所 LC2601收盘价91020元，本周涨4.19%。 ◆ 供给：11月20日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22130吨，环比增2.7%。2025年10月中国进口碳酸锂23881吨，环比+21.9%，同比增加3%。1-10 月中国碳酸锂进口总量约为19.7万吨，同比增加4.9%。2025年10月智利出口碳酸锂2.5万吨，环比增长56%；其中出口至中国的量为1.62万吨， 同比减4.5%，环比增46.0%。 ◆ 需求：据乘联会，11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比去年11月同期增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来累计零售 1070.3万辆，同比增长21%；11月1-16日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发61 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, shows a high - level volatile upward market trend [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures of options and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,931.05, down 15.69 (-0.40%), with a trading volume of 711.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6 billion yuan, and a PE of 16.46 [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,980.82, down 99.27 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 996.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2 billion yuan, and a PE of 29.93 [3]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 3,008.29, down 12.06 (-0.40%), with a trading volume of 101 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan, and a PE of 12.03 [3]. - The SSE 300 Index closed at 4,564.95, down 23.34 (-0.51%), with a trading volume of 415.1 billion yuan, an increase of 29.8 billion yuan, and a PE of 14.14 [3]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,061.95, down 60.80 (-0.85%), with a trading volume of 254.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan, and a PE of 32.17 [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,340.41, down 46.80 (-0.63%), with a trading volume of 356.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan, and a PE of 46.45 [3]. 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.156, down 0.009 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 3.8637 million shares, an increase of 3.7926 million shares, and a trading value of 1.225 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.029 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.676, down 0.021 (-0.45%), with a trading volume of 5.6194 million shares, an increase of 5.5337 million shares, and a trading value of 2.645 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.382 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.170, down 0.057 (-0.79%), with a trading volume of 3.0324 million shares, an increase of 3.0077 million shares, and a trading value of 2.184 billion yuan, an increase of 0.397 billion yuan [4]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.396, down 0.017 (-1.20%), with a trading volume of 23.5876 million shares, an increase of 23.399 million shares, and a trading value of 3.317 billion yuan, an increase of 0.644 billion yuan [4]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.352, down 0.017 (-1.24%), with a trading volume of 6.5031 million shares, an increase of 6.4286 million shares, and a trading value of 0.886 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.137 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.826, down 0.019 (-0.39%), with a trading volume of 1.2255 million shares, an increase of 1.2138 million shares, and a trading value of 0.594 billion yuan, an increase of 0.029 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.865, down 0.024 (-0.83%), with a trading volume of 0.594 million shares, an increase of 0.5872 million shares, and a trading value of 0.171 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.026 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.363, down 0.021 (-0.62%), with a trading volume of 0.6624 million shares, an increase of 0.6534 million shares, and a trading value of 0.225 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.081 billion yuan [4]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.026, down 0.031 (-1.01%), with a trading volume of 13.808 million shares, an increase of 13.6755 million shares, and a trading value of 4.222 billion yuan, an increase of 0.162 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 978,500 contracts, a decrease of 38,300 contracts; the open interest was 1,510,500 contracts, a decrease of 19,200 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.12; the position PCR was 0.87, a decrease of 0.02 [5]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,167,700 contracts, a decrease of 68,200 contracts; the open interest was 1,443,800 contracts, an increase of 3,800 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.20; the position PCR was 0.91, a decrease of 0.04 [5]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,603,400 contracts, an increase of 34,900 contracts; the open interest was 1,492,900 contracts, an increase of 22,400 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.93, a decrease of 0.17; the position PCR was 1.04, a decrease of 0.04 [5]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 1,440,700 contracts, a decrease of 27,400 contracts; the open interest was 2,532,800 contracts, an increase of 33,700 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.69, a decrease of 0.16; the position PCR was 0.79, a decrease of 0.03 [5]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 323,700 contracts, an increase of 28,100 contracts; the open interest was 669,100 contracts, an increase of 12,900 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.03, a decrease of 0.01; the position PCR was 0.77, a decrease of 0.01 [5]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the trading volume was 182,700 contracts, a decrease of 15,500 contracts; the open interest was 327,400 contracts, a decrease of 10,000 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.03, a decrease of 0.56; the position PCR was 0.91, a decrease of 0.07 [5]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the trading volume was 369,500 contracts, an increase of 120,500 contracts; the open interest was 447,800 contracts, an increase of 400 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.78, an increase of 0.20; the position PCR was 0.70, a decrease of 0.03 [5]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the trading volume was 128,900 contracts, an increase of 52,800 contracts; the open interest was 155,500 contracts, a decrease of 2,600 contracts; the volume PCR was 1.81, a decrease of 0.08; the position PCR was 1.29, a decrease of 0.12 [5]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the trading volume was 2,098,800 contracts, an increase of 208,600 contracts; the open interest was 2,080,200 contracts, an increase of 19,300 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.90, a decrease of 0.06; the position PCR was 0.97, a decrease of 0.05 [5]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the trading volume was 54,100 contracts, an increase of 5,700 contracts; the open interest was 78,200 contracts, an increase of 1,600 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.59, a decrease of 0.08; the position PCR was 0.74, an increase of 0.01 [5]. - For the SSE 300 index option, the trading volume was 170,200 contracts, an increase of 4,100 contracts; the open interest was 236,000 contracts, an increase of 1,100 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.60, a decrease of 0.11; the position PCR was 0.78, a decrease of 0.01 [5]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the trading volume was 336,200 contracts, a decrease of 25,500 contracts; the open interest was 347,200 contracts, an increase of 3,900 contracts; the volume PCR was 0.77, a decrease of 0.05; the position PCR was 0.89, a decrease of 0.02 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - For the Shanghai 50 ETF, the underlying closing price was 3.156, the at - the - money strike price was 3.20, the pressure point was 3.20 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 3.10 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 151,449 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 99,449 contracts [7]. - For the Shanghai 300 ETF, the underlying closing price was 4.676, the at - the - money strike price was 4.70, the pressure point was 4.80 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 4.60 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 107,595 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 77,161 contracts [7]. - For the Shanghai 500 ETF, the underlying closing price was 7.170, the at - the - money strike price was 7.25, the pressure point was 7.50 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 7.00 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 130,547 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 87,079 contracts [7]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the underlying closing price was 1.396, the at - the - money strike price was 1.40, the pressure point was 1.50 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 1.35 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 139,380 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 88,753 contracts [7]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, the underlying closing price was 1.352, the at - the - money strike price was 1.35, the pressure point was 1.40 with an offset of - 0.10, the support point was 1.30 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 24,023 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 19,237 contracts [7]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF, the underlying closing price was 4.826, the at - the - money strike price was 4.80, the pressure point was 4.90 with an offset of - 0.10, the support point was 4.70 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 19,268 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 18,301 contracts [7]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF, the underlying closing price was 2.865, the at - the - money strike price was 2.85, the pressure point was 2.90 with an offset of - 0.20, the support point was 2.85 with an offset of 0.10, the maximum call open interest was 20,946 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 14,193 contracts [7]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF, the underlying closing price was 3.363, the at - the - money strike price was 3.40, the pressure point was 3.61 with an offset of 0.00, the support point was 3.32 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 6,053 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 7,559 contracts [7]. - For the ChiNext ETF, the underlying closing price was 3.026, the at - the - money strike price was 3.00, the pressure point was 3.10 with an offset of - 0.10, the support point was 3.00 with an offset of 0.00, the maximum call open interest was 144,175 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 85,630 contracts [7]. - For the Shanghai 50 index option, the underlying closing price was 3,008.29, the at - the - money strike price was 3,000, the pressure point was 3,100 with an offset of 50, the support point was 2,900 with an offset of - 100, the maximum call open interest was 3,441 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 2,106 contracts [7]. - For the SSE 300 index option, the underlying closing price was 4,564.95, the at - the - money strike price was 4,550, the pressure point was 4,700 with an offset of 0, the support point was 4,500 with an offset of - 100, the maximum call open interest was 6,788 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 3,673 contracts [7]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the underlying closing price was 7,340.41, the at - the - money strike price was 7,300, the pressure point was 7,400 with an offset of - 100, the support point was 7,000 with an offset of - 200, the maximum call open interest was 9,706 contracts, and the maximum put open interest was 6,047 contracts [7]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For the Shanghai 50 ETF option, the at - the - money implied volatility was 14.09%, the weighted implied volatility was 14.88%, a decrease of 0.36%, the annual average was 16

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [2]. - For the black sector, compared with short - selling, the cost - effectiveness of finding positions to rebound may be higher. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [10]. - Industrial silicon may present a situation of "weak supply and demand" and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and its price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. - The glass industry's fundamentals continue to be weak, and the soda ash market lacks a clear direction and is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21]. Summary by Categories Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 54306 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 57810 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3267 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4179 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 44323 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar: Supply and demand both decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. - Hot - rolled coil: Terminal demand continued to rise, production declined slightly, but the inventory level was still high. In the short term, prices are likely to weaken, but steel demand may improve with policy implementation [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the open interest decreased by 3421 lots to 47.75 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.23 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly. Demand: The average daily molten iron output decreased, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. In the short term, iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.50% at 5614 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the physical delivery price of 5840 yuan/ton, a premium of 226 yuan/ton over the futures price. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed down 1.05% at 5446 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. Strategy Views - As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for ferrosilicon, the cost - effectiveness of operation is low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 9075 yuan/ton, down 3.35% (- 315). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 28315 lots to 442628 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, and the basis was 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 75 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 52450 yuan/ton, down 3.98% (- 2175). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 4824 lots to 238398 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 remained unchanged, and the basis was - 150 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: It may present a "weak supply and demand" situation and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. - Polysilicon: It is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 16374 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 13285 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (- 0.09%), including a decrease of 1.98 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 4.31 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 974 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 15205 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market lacks positive factors, supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the industry fundamentals continue to be weak. - Soda ash: The supply - side capacity fluctuates little, the terminal glass price is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market's technology - growth sector remains the main line, and in the long - term, there is a policy - supported attitude towards the capital market, suggesting a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, with its supply - demand pattern potentially improving in the fourth quarter, but influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw and increasing allocation forces [7]. - For precious metals, the U.S. labor market shows a trend of weakening, and it is recommended to buy silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals [12][14][16]. - The steel market is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate weakly in the short term but may have a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [29]. - The energy - chemical sector presents various trends, such as rubber having both bullish and bearish factors, and different chemical products having different supply - demand and price trends [44][50]. - The agricultural products market has different outlooks for different products, like pigs having a bearish long - term outlook but potential short - term rebounds, and eggs expected to oscillate in the short term [69][71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: News includes potential Chinese counter - measures against Japan, AI development plans in Guangdong, Google's Gemini 3 leading in the large - model competition, and warnings about the venture - capital sector [2]. - **Strategy**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly. Technology - growth is the main line, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes. The 11 - month LPR remains stable, and the central bank conducts 3000 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 1100 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The fourth - quarter bond market's supply - demand pattern may improve, and it is expected to oscillate and recover, influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices decline. U.S. employment data is mixed, with some sectors showing weakness [8]. - **Strategy**: The U.S. labor market is trending weakly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic social inventory shows slight changes [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates remains low, but copper prices have strong support due to tight supply and reduced inventory - accumulation pressure [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories show different trends [13]. - **Strategy**: With a marginal decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory and low overseas inventory, aluminum prices have strong support and may strengthen after oscillation [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline. Zinc ore inventory slightly increases, and LME zinc ingot inventory shows certain changes [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the winter stockpiling period. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline. Lead ore inventory slightly increases, and domestic social inventory shows marginal accumulation [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai lead market turning from long to short [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise and then fall. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel - iron prices continue to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term downward space of nickel prices is limited, but there is a risk of negative feedback. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline. Supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and demand in emerging fields provides support [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices show different trends. Production increases, and inventory decreases [21]. - **Strategy**: The industry has strong demand, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline. Overseas ore prices are expected to oscillate downward, and domestic inventory shows accumulation [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a reference price range provided and attention to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices decline. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to continue to decline due to over - supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices decline. Inventory shows different trends [26]. - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to strong cost support and general demand [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices decline. Threaded steel and hot - rolled coil show different supply - demand and inventory situations [28]. - **Strategy**: Steel demand is in the off - season, with short - term weak oscillation expected, but a marginal inflection point may occur later [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices decline. The Ximangduo project starts production, and overseas shipments increase [30]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore supply is strong, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory increases. Soda - ash prices decline, and inventory decreases [32][34]. - **Strategy**: Glass industry fundamentals are weak, and soda - ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline. They are in an oscillation range [36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the market - sentiment inflection point. Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon and polysilicon prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with attention to relevant factors [40][42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate and rebound. There are both bullish and bearish factors [44]. - **Strategy**: A bullish approach is recommended, with a stop - loss set, and a hedging strategy is suggested [46]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil prices decline. U.S. inventory data shows different trends [47]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a low - buying and high - selling strategy in the long term [48][49]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decline. High - inventory pressure persists [50]. - **Strategy**: Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline, with high - inventory pressure suppressing prices [50]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices oscillate and rise. Supply and demand show certain changes [51]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and buying on dips is recommended [51]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene prices are stable, and styrene prices rise. Supply and demand show different trends [52]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and attention should be paid to the BZN spread [53]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline. Supply is high, and demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy**: PVC prices are expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices decline. Supply is high, and inventory accumulates [56]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene - glycol prices are expected to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [57]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [58]. - **Strategy**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the PXN spread [59]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [60]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the valuation increase opportunity [61]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rise slightly. Supply and demand show different trends [62]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, influenced by factors such as inventory and demand [63]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [64]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with potential support in the first quarter of next year [66]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends. Supply is normal, and demand is limited [68]. - **Strategy**: The long - term outlook is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. An anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [69]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable or decline. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [70]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [71]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices decline. Global soybean supply is tightening, and domestic inventory is high [73]. - **Strategy**: Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on squeezing profits [74]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil prices decline [75]. - **Strategy**: Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate. A bullish approach can be considered if production declines [76]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices decline. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season [77]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies due to expected oversupply and high import profits [79]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [80]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high selling - hedging pressure [82].

Group 1: Report Information - Date: November 21, 2025 [3] - Title: Nonferrous Metals Daily Report [1] Group 2: Copper Market Information - LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.08% at $10,686/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,920 yuan/ton [3] - LME copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly increased, bonded area inventory slightly decreased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 55,000 tons [3] - Shanghai spot premium over futures declined to 80 yuan/ton, and bargain - hunting buying was fair [3] - Guangdong inventory decreased, and the spot premium over futures was 55 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 2,940 yuan/ton [3] Strategy View - After the US employment data release, the Fed's probability of a rate cut remained low, and the weakening US stocks pressured market sentiment [4] - Copper raw material supply remained tight, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased marginally, so copper price support was still strong [4] - The operating range reference for SHFE copper main contract: 85,200 - 87,000 yuan/ton; for LME copper 3M: 10,600 - 10,820 dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Aluminum Market Information - LME aluminum closed down 0.28% at $2,806/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,550 yuan/ton [6] - SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest decreased by 1.4 to 654,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts remained flat at 69,000 tons [6] - Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons compared to Monday, and remained flat compared to last Thursday [6] - Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 8,500 tons compared to Monday and 1,500 tons compared to last Thursday [6] - Aluminum bar processing fees declined, and the market traded on demand [6] - East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a 10 - yuan discount to futures, and trading was warm [6] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 544,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded [6] Strategy View - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased marginally, and overseas aluminum inventory remained low, so aluminum price support was strong [7] - Although there were still headwinds in short - term market risk appetite, if domestic inventory could be effectively reduced, aluminum prices were expected to strengthen further after consolidation [7] - The operating range reference for SHFE aluminum main contract: 21,480 - 21,650 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum 3M: 2,780 - 2,830 dollars/ton [7] Group 4: Lead Market Information - On Thursday, SHFE lead index closed down 0.17% at 17,218 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 82,800 lots in unilateral trading [8] - As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S fell 11 to $2,015/ton compared to the previous day, with a total open interest of 161,100 lots [8] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton [8] - SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 110 yuan/ton [8] - LME lead ingot inventory was 264,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancellation warrants were 87,200 tons [8] - The ex - exchange cash - 3S contract basis was - 27.39 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 78.3 dollars/ton [8] - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons [8] Strategy View - Lead ore inventory increased slightly, but lead concentrate TC continued to decline, and domestic lead raw materials were still in short supply [9] - Primary and secondary smelting profits were good, primary smelting operations remained at a high level, and secondary smelting operations continued to rise [9] - Downstream battery enterprises' operations improved marginally, and domestic lead ingot social inventory increased marginally [9] - Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again, but with the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the sentiment in precious metals and nonferrous metals ebbed [9] - The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead shifted from long to short, and the SHFE lead index reduced its open interest by 40,000 lots from the high point, returning to the oscillation range [9] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [9] Group 5: Zinc Market Information - On Thursday, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.21% at 22,390 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 199,800 lots in unilateral trading [10] - As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose 3.5 to $2,990/ton compared to the previous day, with a total open interest of 218,400 lots [10] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,430 yuan/ton, Shanghai basis was 30 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis was - 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis was - 40 yuan/ton [10] - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 73,700 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 30 yuan/ton [10] - LME zinc ingot inventory was 45,100 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancellation warrants were 3,500 tons [10] - The ex - exchange cash - 3S contract basis was 152.14 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 35.58 dollars/ton [10] - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 152,700 tons [10] Strategy View - Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but zinc ore was still in short supply during the refineries' winter stockpiling period, and zinc concentrate TC continued to decline [11] - Zinc smelting profits were damaged, and zinc ingot supply decreased marginally [11] - Downstream operating rates remained stable, and the accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down [11] - In the LME market, zinc ingot warrants increased slowly, and the LME zinc spread declined marginally [11] - With the Fed officials' hawkish remarks last Friday, the sentiment in precious metals and nonferrous metals ebbed, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly [11] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [11] Group 6: Tin Market Information - On November 20, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 292,030 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day [12] - Upstream Yunnan 40% tin concentrate was quoted at 279,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] - After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rates of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces rebounded and stabilized, but the overall operating level was still at a historical low [12] - Due to the slow actual resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, its tin ore exports were still far below the normal level, unable to effectively make up for the supply gap [12] - In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month [12] - Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate was weak, the long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers supported tin prices [12] - In October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight improvement [12] Strategy View - In the short term, tin supply and demand were in a tight balance, and prices were expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation [13] - It is recommended to buy on dips [13] - The operating range reference for domestic main contract: 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton; for overseas LME tin: 36,000 - 38,000 dollars/ton [13] Group 7: Nickel Market Information - On Thursday, nickel prices rose and then fell. The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 15:00 was 115,380 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day [14] - In the spot market, the premium of various brands was stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 4,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [14] - In the cost aspect, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair this week. The price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was 52.02 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was 23 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day [14] - The price of 1.5% grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 52.7 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [14] - The price of domestic high - nickel pig iron continued to fall, with the ex - factory price at 895 yuan/nickel point, down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] Strategy View - In the short term, the fundamental pressure on nickel remained significant, but considering that the current profit level of nickel pig iron was at an absolute low, the short - term decline space of nickel prices was expected to be limited [15] - It is necessary to guard against the negative feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel ore prices [15] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel pig iron price stabilizes and the nickel price decline is sufficient, consider gradually establishing long positions lightly [15] - The short - term operating range reference for SHFE nickel main contract: 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton; for LME nickel 3M contract: 14,500 - 15,000 dollars/ton [15] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 99,011 yuan in the evening session, up 1.71% from the previous working day [17] - The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 98,500 - 100,000 yuan, with the average price up 1,700 yuan (+1.74%) from the previous working day [17] - The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 97,500 - 98,000 yuan, with the average price up 1.56% from the previous day [17] - The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 98,980 yuan, down 0.32% from the previous closing price [17] - The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [17] Strategy View - This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2.7% week - on - week to 22,130 tons, with the increment mainly from lithium - spodumene extraction [18] - The weekly inventory reduction narrowed to 118,420 tons, down 2,052 tons (-1.7%) from last week [18] - All links in the industrial chain maintained high operating rates, and strong demand could not be falsified [18] - Continuous price increases may trigger potential disturbances such as supply release and a slowdown in demand growth [18] - Currently, the capital game is intense, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of large price fluctuations [18] - It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the position structure, the atmosphere in the equity market, and the production schedules of lithium - battery materials and cells [18] - The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract today: 96,500 - 102,800 yuan/ton [18] Group 9: Alumina Market Information - On November 20, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.33% to 2,755 yuan/ton, with the unilateral trading total open interest down 0.9 to 574,000 lots from the previous trading day [20] - In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,775 yuan/ton, at a 70 - yuan premium to the 12 - contract [20] - Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at 319 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 39 yuan/ton [20] - In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Thursday were reported at 255,100 tons, down 0.06 to 255,100 tons from the previous trading day [20] - In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained at 71.5 dollars/ton, and the Australia CIF price remained at 68 dollars/ton [20] Strategy View - After the rainy season, overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering, and ore prices are expected to oscillate downward [21] - The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues [21] - However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production - cut expectation is strengthened [21] - And the overall nonferrous sector is trending strongly, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high [21] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21] - The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601: 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,285 yuan/ton, down 0.41% (-50) on the day, with the unilateral open interest up 11,517 to 263,300 lots from the previous trading day [23] - In the spot market, Foshan's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil was quoted at 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - Wuxi's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil was quoted at 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 from the previous day [23] - Foshan's basis was 15 (+50), and Wuxi's basis was 165 (0) [23] - Foshan's Hongwang 201 was quoted at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and Hongwang's annealed 430 was quoted at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - In terms of raw materials, Shandong's high - nickel iron ex - factory price was quoted at 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day [23] - Baoding's 304 scrap steel industrial material recycling price was quoted at 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - The northern main - producing area of high - carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,000 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day [23] - The futures inventory was 70,365 tons, down 1,726 from the previous day [23] - According to Steel Union data, the social inventory increased to 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% month - on - month, of which the 300 - series inventory was 65

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolio strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. - Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview of Underlying Futures Markets - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum call and put open interests of various energy - chemical options, are presented, which help to analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various energy - chemical options [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil inventories have different changes. The crude oil market has shown a complex price trend from August to November [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 460 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The LPG market is relatively strong, with a rebound in the external market. The domestic fundamentals are tightening marginally. The market has shown a complex price trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply may increase, and the inventory is expected to rise slightly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 2500 and the support level is 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The weekly production has a slight increase, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The production has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has risen. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The tire production capacity utilization rate and inventory turnover days have different changes. The market has shown a weak - oscillating trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has dropped to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.6. The pressure level is 16000 and the support level is 15000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The PTA load has been adjusted, and the market has shown a rebound - with - pressure trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a higher - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating an oscillating market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the market has shown a weak - short - side trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory has increased year - on - year, and the market has shown a low - level weak - oscillating trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The market has shown a low - level oscillating and gradually rebounding trend since August [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of hawkish statements from Fed officials and better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a further interest rate cut by the Fed in December has weakened. However, the trend of a weakening US labor market remains unchanged, and further easing by the Fed is just a matter of time. - Currently, it is recommended to enter long silver positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 903 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11534 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 21, 2025, SHFE gold fell 0.66% to 933.90 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 1.34% to 11967.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4076.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 50.36 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.23 [2]. - The September non - farm payroll employment change in the US was 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the revised previous value of - 22,000. But considering the previous revisions, the September employment data did not show an improvement in the US labor market. Except for healthcare and hospitality, the new employment in the service industry was poor, and employment in goods production relied on real estate. The main contributors to the new non - farm payrolls were healthcare (+59,000), hospitality (+47,000), government (+22,000), and construction (+19,000). The government employment sub - item will not support the combined non - farm data for October and November. The construction industry improved in September, but it is difficult to support overall employment in quantity like the service industry. Manufacturing employment decreased by 6,000, and all sub - items declined, continuing the weak performance in August. The number of people unemployed for more than 15 weeks reached 3.105 million, the highest since 2022. The new employment in the information manufacturing (IT industry) was 0, slightly better than the previous decline of 700 [2]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4076.70 dollars/ounce, down 0.04% from the previous day. The trading volume was 26.69 million lots, up 16.83%. The open interest was 49.37 million lots, down 6.63%. The inventory was 1149 tons, down 0.09% [5]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4090.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.88% [5]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 932.56 yuan/gram, down 0.47%. The trading volume was 54.02 million lots, up 10.99%. The open interest was 33.20 million lots, down 1.08%. The inventory was 90.43 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 49.54 billion yuan, out - flowed 1.55% [5]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.36 dollars/ounce, down 1.39%. The open interest was 16.38 million lots, down 1.19%. The inventory was 14367 tons, down 0.13% [5]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 50.85 dollars/ounce, down 2.60% [5]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 12,050.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81%. The trading volume was 258.09 million lots, up 32.77%. The open interest was 74.14 million lots, up 1.91%. The inventory was 535.09 tons, down 2.30%. The settled funds were 24.122 billion yuan, in - flowed 1.09% [5]. 3.3 Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: In the COMEX gold near - far month structure, and the spreads between London gold and COMEX gold, SHFE gold and COMEX gold, and SGE gold and LBMA gold were analyzed. For example, on November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was - 0.95 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 7.57 dollars/ounce [5][51]. - **Silver**: In the COMEX silver near - far month structure, and the spreads between London silver and COMEX silver, SHFE silver and COMEX silver, and SGE silver and LBMA silver were analyzed. On November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 2.28 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.92 dollars/ounce [5][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].