Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently influenced by macro factors, with limited fundamental drivers. The expected rebound space is restricted, and attention should be paid to macro news [2]. - For caustic soda, there is short - term support from supply reduction and tariff easing, but in the medium term, the 09 contract is mainly bearish. Attention should be paid to factors such as delivery volume, inventory depletion, alumina production, and exports [3]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. Although there is short - term support from high raw material prices, the upward drive is insufficient due to expected supply increase and weak downstream demand [4][5]. - Urea supply is stable, and the concentrated release of fertilizer demand will support the price. The export situation is undetermined, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [6]. - Methanol supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has limited short - term承接 capacity, so it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [7]. - The plastic market is under supply pressure in the second quarter. Although there is short - term market boost from trade negotiation news, downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, policies, and other factors [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 14, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4987 yuan/ton (+149), with different market prices rising. The basis weakened. The inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate downturn and export restrictions. The supply side has new investment plans. The market is macro - dominated, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 14, the SH09 contract closed at 2530 yuan/ton (+30). Some prices in the Shandong market changed. The inventory increased year - on - year and month - on - month. There are short - term supports, but in the medium term, supply is sufficient and demand growth is limited, so the 09 contract is mainly bearish [3]. Rubber - On May 14, rubber was strong. Supported by high raw material prices in the short term, but the inventory increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. Urea - The urea main contract fell 0.89% to 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, demand from fertilizer use will be concentrated, and the inventory changed from accumulation to depletion. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.86% to 2353 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, downstream demand has limited short - term承接 capacity, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Plastic - On May 14, the plastic main contract rose 2.11% to 7339 yuan/ton. The second - quarter supply pressure is high, downstream demand is weak, and there is short - term market boost from trade negotiation news [8].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/15 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡上行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，10 合约基差 113（-8）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日， 三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市 场仍在期待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 市场预期改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积， 供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始 季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍 低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸 易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背 景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，市场再度炒作抢出口，盘面向上回 调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 778 ...

◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 1.36%至 78940 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成相关贸易协议，全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解。美通 胀数据低于市场预期，美元走软，隔夜有色金属普涨，铜价小幅上行。 现货市场，日内铜价重心下移，BACK 结构月差有所扩张，下游企业入 市接货情绪难有提振同时由于交割换月临近，持货商大贴水出货情绪有 限。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价回归基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼产出后续存在下滑趋势，不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然 较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小消费表现依然稳中有进，但高 月差抑制了近期消费表现。低库存背景下，铜价或继续维持高位偏强震 荡。技术上看，沪铜短期维持偏强震荡。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 1.4%至 20275 元/吨。氧 化铝运行产能周度环比减少 55 万吨至 8675 万吨，全国氧化铝库存较节 前减少 13.5 万吨至 328.8 万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在 继续，市场处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。有媒体报道北方某大型氧 化铝企业氧化铝产能或存在违规建设，带动市场情绪 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） 棉纺团队 研究员： 洪润霞 咨询电话 ...

◆ 烧碱： 5 月 13 日中美和谈宏观回暖加上现货阶段性反弹，烧碱震荡偏强运行， 主力 SH09 合约收 2500 元/吨（-45），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0）， 折百 2594 元/吨（0），液氯山东 1 元/吨（-99）。5 月 13 日开始，山 东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 20 元/吨，执行出厂 745 元/吨（折百 2328 元/吨）。截至 20250508，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨 及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 41.58 万吨(湿吨)，环比上涨 1.79%， 同比上涨 6.75%。山东意外检修较多，液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看， 供应端，减产装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少 量投产预期，库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影 响烧碱下游非铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步 入淡季；氧化铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际 转弱预期，魏桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有 氧化铝新投产，烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短 期减量和关税缓和有支撑。中期供应仍较为充足，需求增量有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm Oil**: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].

简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PTA 现货价格+ ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日持平，10 合约基差 121（+3）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部门发 布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市场仍在期 待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，市场预期 改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局 有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回 落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉 谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改 善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚 可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计 价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 101.25 美元/吨（+2.65）， 月均 98.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 95 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西 ...