美国通胀降温，4 月 CPI 同比 2.3%，为自 2021 年 2 月以来最低水平。沙特 承诺向美国投资 6000 亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。 美国或允许阿联酋进口超百万英伟达先进芯片，支持 OpenAI 在联酋建数据 中心。贝森特：欧盟可能在贸易方面存在"集体行动问题"。整体来看，中 美谈判进程超预期，而市场表现冷静，在关税前的位置附近，没有明显上探， 股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 对于仓位较低或者久期较低的机构，左侧交易的动力或者空间可能较为充足， 短期内可能体现为一波 5BP 的波段交易。但如果本身着眼于更长趋势交易的 投资者，当前的位置并未充分反应宏观形势的阶段性好转带来的预期变化， 参与的赔率仍然偏低。后续还有政府债密集供给、税期和经济数据等因素的 轮番扰动，市场波折尚未完全结束，关注短期内市场机构充分调仓后进一步 的方向选择。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-14 公司资质 彭博 从业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting at high prices, tin is recommended for trading within a range, gold is recommended for building positions at low prices after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended for observation; and the outlook for soda ash is weakly fluctuating [1][20][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound with fluctuations, apples are expected to fluctuate, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs are expected to show a weak trend, corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][33][38]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures products based on factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, domestic policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit situations. It believes that Sino - US trade negotiations have a significant impact on the market, with short - term tariff easing exceeding expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. Different products have different trends due to their own supply - demand and cost characteristics, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [5][20]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Sino - US trade situation improvement boosts the strong rebound of US stocks. The negotiation process exceeds expectations, and the index futures may fluctuate strongly. However, there are risks of callback after reaching the previous high [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade negotiations may reduce the pressure of export decline. The potential downward space of bond yields is limited, but there are still phased opportunities. Short - term attention should be paid to the fermentation of reverse trading [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price rebounds, and the market expectation improves due to Sino - US negotiations. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of deterioration, and the price is expected to fluctuate under the background of low valuation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply shows a slight decline, and the demand has limited upward space. Considering the approaching traditional off - season and other factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the coke market has no prominent short - term supply - demand contradictions, but there are adjustment pressures. Both are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation eases, but the impact of the trade war on demand may gradually appear. The fundamentals support the price, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite increases, and the demand has a weakening expectation. It is recommended for observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an excess pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations reduce market risk aversion, but the tariff policy is expected to be repeated. Both are expected to fluctuate [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply has new investment plans. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to tariff progress [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient in the medium term, with limited demand growth [22]. - **Rubber**: The macro - good news boosts the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The decline is expected to slow down [26][27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The short - term news has a certain boost, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [28]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [30]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation [30]. - **PTA**: The cost collapses, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the support at 4200 [32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply increases and is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [33][34]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may be supported, but the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [34]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak. The long - term cost increases, and the price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different periods [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The long - term trend is expected to decline first and then rebound [38][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for stock index: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2] - Investment rating for treasury bonds: Bullish in the short term [3] Group 2: Core Views - For stock index: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has boosted a strong rebound in US stocks. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and Goldman Sachs has postponed its Fed rate cut expectation from July to December. The Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement was released, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that China and the US have cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The Sino - US negotiation process has exceeded expectations, and the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward bias. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the level before the implementation of tariffs, and there is still pressure from additional tariffs in the current fundamentals, as well as the expected disturbance of Trump's changing attitude. When the market sentiment is high, attention should be paid to the possible callback risk after reaching the previous high [1] - For treasury bonds: Considering the relatively high density and intensity of recent domestic policy introductions, the market's expectations for the number and cumulative amplitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will also decline to some extent, and the potential downward space for bond yields is relatively limited. The low - odds situation in the bond market will not improve significantly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the development of reverse trading and patiently wait for the market to gradually stabilize from the high - volatility environment [2] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.23%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.77%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.48%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.56% [4] - Treasury bonds: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.46%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.20%, the 30 - year main contract fell 1.31%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.08% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight downward bias [7] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3853.00 | 1.23 | 61843 | 152926 | | 2025/05/12 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2686.60 | 0.77 | 31684 | 50672 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5688.00 | 1.48 | 52449 | 101404 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6037.00 | 1.56 | 134023 | 170704 | | 2025/05/12 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.46 | 110974 | 160433 | | 2025/05/12 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.89 | - 0.20 | 77590 | 129518 | | 2025/05/12 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.74 | - 1.31 | 122849 | 71751 | | 2025/05/12 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.28 | - 0.08 | 48586 | 74392 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of pigs is increasing and being postponed, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, but the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, resulting in limited decline. Egg prices are expected to be supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. The short - term outlook for palm oil is weak, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be stronger than palm oil in the short - term. In the long - term, the overall trend of oils is to decline in the second quarter and potentially rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, with a long - term upward trend. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias in the long - term, but the upside is limited by substitutes [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Product Pigs - On May 13, the spot prices in different regions were stable. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the supply will increase later. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 is increasing, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to go short on rebounds. The pressure and support levels for 07 and 09 contracts are provided [1]. Eggs - On May 13, egg prices in some regions increased. Short - term price support may come from pre - holiday demand, but long - term supply pressure is significant. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the 06 contract and take a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm oil**: The production increase in Malaysia is greater than the export increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The 07 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term. In China, the inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May to June [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA report is positive, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US is also positive, but the upside of US soybeans is limited. In China, the inventory is expected to increase due to large imports from May to July [5]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening, and the ICE rapeseed is expected to rebound. In China, the inventory is high, but if the supply tightens, the inventory may gradually decrease [6]. Soybean Meal - The price of US soybeans rebounded on May 12. In the short - term, the domestic price is expected to fall due to increased supply, but in the long - term, it may be strong due to cost and weather factors. The strategy is to go short in the short - term and long in the long - term for the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On May 12, the price in some regions increased, while in others it decreased. In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced supply from farmers, but the upside is limited by demand. In the long - term, the price may rise but is restricted by substitutes. The strategy is to go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - Provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products on May 12, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 50 元/吨，10 合约基差 118（-10），中美会谈成果超预期，双 方大幅互降关税，市场预期明显好转。国内政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部 门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高 开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需 双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影 响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方 面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱 动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政 策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关 注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/13 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 ◆ 铁矿石 周一，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。供给方面，全球发 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension has further eased, and metal prices are gradually returning to the fundamental logic. Different metals have different trends due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [1][2][3][5][6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and tin prices are expected to have increased volatility [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of May 12, the Shanghai copper main contract 06 rose 0.77% to 78,260 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US trade agreement, the copper price returned to the fundamental logic. With the TC of copper concentrate decreasing, the smelting output may decline, and the consumption is stable but affected by the high monthly spread. It is recommended to trade cautiously in the range of 74,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of May 12, the Shanghai aluminum main contract 06 rose 1.66% to 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is increasing and the price is falling. The alumina production capacity is in a state of complex change, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate has increased slightly, but there is a weakening expectation. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong [2]. - **Nickel**: As of May 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract 06 rose 2% to 126,130 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - **Tin**: As of May 12, the Shanghai tin main contract 06 rose 0.89% to 263,200 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the supply of tin ore is tight. With the expected resumption of production in the mining end, the price volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market transaction was light, with downstream enterprises maintaining rigid demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: The spot aluminum market stabilized from a weak state. The holders were willing to ship, and the downstream rigid demand supported the transaction. The afternoon trading became lighter [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina was stable with a small increase, but the trading volume was weak [9]. - **Zinc**: The spot zinc market was affected by shipment pressure and imported goods, with high spot premiums but light trading [10][11]. - **Lead**: The spot lead market was mainly for rigid demand from downstream merchants, and the trading activity needed to be improved [12][13]. - **Nickel**: As the nickel price rebounded to a high level, the spot market was cautious and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [14]. - **Tin**: In the spot tin market, some merchants were waiting and watching, and the overall transaction was weak [15]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: The copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 919 tons to 20,084 tons; the aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,899 tons to 62,114 tons; the zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,903 tons; the lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 40,961 tons; the nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 23,222 tons; the tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 8,331 tons [17]. - **LME**: The copper inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 190,750 tons; the tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 2,790 tons; the lead inventory decreased by 1,625 tons to 251,800 tons; the zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 169,850 tons; the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 401,525 tons; the nickel inventory increased by 84 tons to 197,754 tons [17].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PT ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic conditions, and tariff policies. Different products show different trends in the short and medium - term, with some expected to be in a low - level shock state, while others are more likely to be short - term supported but face supply pressure in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - **Price Information**: On May 12, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4836 yuan/ton (+31), the Changzhou market price was 4650 yuan/ton (-10), the main basis was - 186 yuan/ton (+41), the Guangzhou market price was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the Hangzhou market price was 4700 yuan/ton (-30) [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the long - term, demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, and inventory is still high. It is in a state of loose supply - demand [2]. - **Macro - factors**: China and the US will reduce tariffs on each other's goods within 90 days. The short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. The domestic first - quarter data is good, and there may be some support for exports in the second quarter. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main SH09 contract closed at 2545 yuan/ton (+69), the Shandong market mainstream price was 830 yuan/ton (+10), and the converted 100% price was 2594 yuan/ton (+31). The liquid chlorine price in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-50). From May 13, a Shandong alumina manufacturer raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, production reduction and tariff relaxation provide support. In the medium - term, supply is still relatively sufficient, and demand growth is limited. The 09 contract is still mainly short - biased in the medium - term [3]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production and export, the possible support of weak liquid chlorine prices for caustic soda, and the scale and continuity of maintenance from June to August [3]. Rubber - **Price Information**: On May 12, rubber was running strongly. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 tons and an increase of 0.73%. There are also detailed price data for raw materials, finished products, and basis differences [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price remains high, providing bottom support for the rubber price. The inventory in Qingdao is slightly increasing, and the market is expected to fluctuate [4]. Urea - **Price Information**: The main urea contract fell 0.26% to close at 1897 yuan/ton. The daily average price in the Henan market increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1918 yuan/ton, and the daily average price in the Shandong market increased by 68 yuan/ton to 1916 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is stable, with a daily output of 19.5 - 200,000 tons. The demand for rice fertilization in the south and corn base fertilization in the north will be concentrated, and there is also some elasticity in exports. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock state in the short - term [6]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [6]. Methanol - **Price Information**: The main methanol contract rose 1.79% to close at 2270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to continue to increase, while downstream demand is wait - and - see. It is expected that the decline will slow down, and the reference range for the 09 contract is 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin start - up, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [8]. Plastic - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main plastic contract rose 1.08% to close at 7090 yuan/ton. There are also price data for different types of plastics [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In April, the plastic price dropped significantly due to tariffs. The supply side has new capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side is weak. The inventory of upstream enterprises and traders has increased, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].