Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-19 China Soybean Futures Main Contract Rotation Pattern 大豆期货主力合约轮换分析 王聪颖 Wang Congying 从业资格号 Qualification No：F0254714 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0002180 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Since 2023, the number of main co ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown significant marginal improvement, and it is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose. LME inventories are at a high level, which exerts some pressure on prices. The Indonesian government's plan to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and significantly reduce the nickel ore quota for 2026 has led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price sharply. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel contract rose significantly, with an intraday increase of over 3.4% and breaking through 11,740 tons. The main reasons for the sharp rebound in nickel prices are that Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026. One of the revision points is that the government will treat nickel's associated metals as independent commodities and levy royalties, which will push up the cost of the nickel industry chain and support the price rebound. In addition, Indonesia plans to set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of about 34% compared to this year's 379 million tons. If this plan is implemented, it will have a greater impact on the 2026 nickel balance, and the surplus expectation will decline significantly. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic refined nickel production in November decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 25,800 tons, showing a significant marginal contraction, but it is not enough to effectively improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel and nickel matte in Indonesia all maintained year - on - year growth, and the overall supply - side pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. After the spot market completed phased restocking, the trading volume weakened. The stainless steel production schedule has gradually weakened month - on - month, and the consumption of nickel in electric vehicles and alloys is expected to decline. The overall fundamental surplus remains. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253,900 tons yesterday, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 748 tons to 37,500 tons, but the overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals have not shown significant marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose, and the high - level LME inventory suppresses prices. The Indonesian policy adjustments have led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Enterprises should establish exchange rate risk management systems and use foreign exchange derivatives to hedge exchange rate risks due to factors like the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle leading to a weaker US dollar and stronger RMB, the need for Chinese enterprises going global to manage foreign exchange risks, and the increasing market participation in more flexible foreign exchange futures [1]. Summary by Directory 1. 2026 RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - In 2026, the RMB exchange rate may rise steadily within the range of 6.8 - 7.2, with limited depreciation space. Its trend depends on the central bank's mid - price adjustment, the performance of the external US dollar index and domestic equity markets, and the export situation. A rising equity market may lead to excessive RMB appreciation, and the release of "pending settlement positions" may amplify the appreciation momentum [9]. 2. Foreign Exchange Futures Market Status - The foreign exchange futures market has deepened and become an effective supplement to traditional hedging tools. In the first 10 months of 2025, the monthly average trading volume of foreign exchange futures was 560.1 billion US dollars, ranking first in the trading scale of on - and off - exchange foreign exchange derivatives, accounting for 51.4% [10]. 3. Hedging Theory Introduction 3.1 Hedging Principle - Hedging is to lock in future trading prices by establishing opposite and matching positions in the derivatives market to offset potential losses from spot price fluctuations. In foreign exchange futures trading, it aims to neutralize the combined position risk of foreign exchange futures and spot exchange rates [14]. 3.2 Hedging Types - Export - oriented enterprises worried about foreign currency depreciation or RMB appreciation can use short - selling hedging in the futures market. Import - oriented enterprises concerned about foreign currency appreciation or RMB depreciation can use long - buying hedging. Enterprises can also adjust positions and risk exposures flexibly [17]. 3.3 Hedging Strategies - Strategy design: Start with a "fixed hedging" strategy and then switch to a "dynamic hedging" strategy. Determine the currency and term according to actual needs. Use static hedging, layered rolling, or rolling hedging methods based on different business situations [18][19][20]. 3.4 Hedging End - End hedging by closing futures positions when completing spot transactions or when market conditions change unfavorably. Or hold the futures contract until maturity and complete the physical delivery process [22][23]. 4. RMB Futures Contract Overview - In November 2025, the average daily trading volume of CUS and UC was about 95,000 and 156,000 lots, with an average daily trading value of about 9.5 billion and 15.6 billion US dollars respectively. The average daily open interest was about 32,000 and 197,000 lots, with an average daily capital deposit of about 3.2 billion and 19.7 billion US dollars respectively [27]. 5. Foreign Exchange Futures Hedging Cases 5.1 Crude Oil Import Enterprises - A Shandong private refinery faces risks from oil price and exchange rate fluctuations. By using "crude oil futures + foreign exchange futures" hedging strategies, it can lock in oil purchase prices and exchange rates, avoiding significant losses compared to non - hedging scenarios [36][37][39]. 5.2 Electronic Product Export Enterprises - A Chinese electronics exporter faces the risk of RMB appreciation. Using foreign exchange futures to hedge can not only avoid exchange rate losses but also achieve additional benefits compared to non - hedging and bank forward hedging [42][43][47]. 6. Foreign Exchange Futures Simulated Trading 6.1 Forward Premium, Export Settlement Scenario - An export enterprise can use foreign exchange futures to hedge against exchange rate risks. In the forward premium scenario, futures hedging can achieve a 304% hedging effect, better than no hedging and bank forward contracts [48][50]. 6.2 Forward Discount, Export Settlement Scenario - When the forward is at a discount, foreign exchange futures can cover all exchange losses and generate additional benefits, with a 134% hedging effect, superior to no hedging and bank forward contracts [50][51]. 6.3 Comparison between Foreign Exchange Futures Hedging and Bank Forwards - Futures have advantages such as lower costs, better liquidity, lower thresholds, price transparency, and the ability to obtain basis spread benefits compared to bank forward contracts [52]. 7. Futures Risk Management 9.1 Margin Risk - Futures trading requires margin deposits, and market fluctuations can lead to margin shortages. Enterprises should reserve sufficient trading funds and carefully determine hedging strategies and positions [53]. 9.2 Forced Liquidation Risk - Futures trading has a forced liquidation system. Enterprises need to pay attention to margin levels, position limits, and compliance to avoid forced liquidation and subsequent losses [54][56]. 8. Enterprise System Construction - Enterprises should formulate regulations to ensure full coverage of risk exposures, clarify the division of labor between decision - making and execution institutions, and establish a supervision and audit mechanism [57][58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The direction of strength in the stock index futures market has switched again, and it is recommended to allocate cautiously with large - cap stocks performing better recently [1][9] - In the stock index options market, year - end behavior is conservative, and protective put options should be used to deal with risks [2][9] - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment of ultra - long - end bonds may remain unstable, and while the bond market is supported in the short term, caution is needed for ultra - long - end bonds [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market failed to continue the Wednesday sentiment, with major broad - based indices weakening. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% and trading volume shrank. The allocation style became more conservative, with dividend and micro - cap structures outperforming. Industries such as airports, coal, and banks rose over 2%. High - dividend and consumer sectors were resilient. In the future, it is in a stage where both bullish and bearish factors are difficult to be falsified, and it is recommended to hold IC & dividend index [1][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market was volatile and differentiated. The total turnover of the options market was over 7.099 billion yuan, a 29.54% decrease from the previous day. Mid - term sentiment needs improvement, and the short - term market has turned defensive. Volatility of some ETFs increased. It is recommended to use protective put options [2][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. However, the ultra - long - end bonds showed instability, with the 30Y treasury bond yield rising about 0.9BP. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, net injecting 6.97 billion yuan. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy may have increased. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from December 15 - 19, 2025, including China's reserve currency in November, the US non - farm payrolls change in November, and the core CPI in November [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including in emerging industries and productive service industries, and address issues in private investment [12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tungsten concept stocks rose. The rise in tungsten prices is due to supply - demand factors and future expectations, and the increase in tungsten powder prices is related to the tight supply of tungsten concentrates [12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The European Parliament approved a plan to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline inventory increased [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is continued volatility, with a focus on phased stop - profit for short positions in chemicals. [3] Core Viewpoints - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the US in November showed a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021, easing price pressures. After the CPI release, US stock index futures rose, and Treasury yields and the dollar declined. Near - term factors affecting oil prices include US sanctions on Russia and the impact on Venezuela's oil supply. As most chemical futures shift from the 01 to the 05 contract, expected trading will become the main trend. However, high inventory and potential new inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will increase the volatility of the 05 contract. [1][2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical issues in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations, but there is significant downside pressure in the next quarter. - **Main Logic**: The US may further escalate sanctions on Russia, and the situation in Venezuela is uncertain. Although Venezuela's supply is a concern, the US has no extreme remarks about war on Venezuela for now, and the expected supply is still in an over - supply state in the short - term. [7] Asphalt - **View**: The escalation of the US - Venezuela situation has eased, and asphalt futures prices have fallen back below 3000. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continued to increase production in December. The US's expected war on Venezuela was disproven. Oil prices drove asphalt futures down. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the supply - demand of asphalt is weak with large inventory pressure. Also, the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate widely, and the supply - demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the expected US war on Venezuela was disproven. The three drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak. The demand in the off - season is also low. [8] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. It has a strong product attribute and is affected by the supply - demand situation at home and abroad. [9] PX - **View**: Driven by strong macro and commodity sentiment, prices rise. It is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, with PXN expected to be in the [260, 320] range. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices rebounded from a low level, and PX prices were strong under cost support. With the support of polyester and PTA loads, the price is in an upward - biased pattern. [10] PTA - **View**: Spot circulation is tight, the expected inventory accumulation amplitude is narrowed, and the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price will follow the cost to fluctuate and strengthen, and the processing fee will operate within a range. - **Main Logic**: Upstream PX is strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - side variables are limited, and downstream polyester runs stably. The inventory accumulation amplitude of PTA is expected to converge. [11][12] Pure Benzene - **View**: It fluctuates due to expected differences. - **Main Logic**: It is in a state of weak reality and expected differences. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. [13][15] Styrene - **View**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but the supply - demand is in a tight - balanced state, providing some support. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. [17] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The load has increased again, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The short - term price will fluctuate in a range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large. - **Main Logic**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply - demand has weakened again. Although it is currently in a loose balance, there is a long - term inventory accumulation expectation. [18][19] Short - Fiber - **View**: The upstream cost support has increased, and the price will follow the upstream to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials have strengthened, and the downstream reduction in production is not obvious. The inventory of short - fiber has decreased, and the price has risen with the upstream. [21][22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price, and the absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials. - **Main Logic**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have different trends. Polyester bottle chips are supported by cost and fluctuate with the raw materials. [23] Methanol - **View**: Affected by overseas disturbances and strengthened cost support, it will continue to fluctuate and strengthen. - **Main Logic**: There are differences in the methanol market. The inland market is in a state of shock and consolidation, while the port market is strong due to inventory reduction and slow shipping. [27][28] Urea - **View**: Boosted by market information and strengthened cost support, the futures price rebounds in the short term. It may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but significant upward movement is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has weakened slightly. The inventory shows a de - stocking trend, and the Indian tender and coal price rebound have driven the price up. [28][29] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The cost - side support is limited, and it fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile, and the fundamental support for plastics is limited. The supply reduction expectation is weak, and the demand is entering the off - season. [31][32] PP - **View**: Supported by the expectation of maintenance, it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance for gas - fired refineries. However, the current supply pressure is large. [32][33] PL - **View**: Supported by the strong spot and the expectation of PDH maintenance, it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The spot inventory is controllable, but the downstream buying attitude is cautious. [33] PVC - **View**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. It may fluctuate in the medium term, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. - **Main Logic**: Overseas devices have exited, and export orders are booming. However, the domestic marginal enterprise production reduction is limited, and the downstream demand is weak seasonally. [36] Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it may fluctuate. In the short term, the market sentiment is good and the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the supply - demand is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has a short - term boosting effect. In the short term, the upstream in Shandong has reduced inventory, but in the long - term, the high - supply pressure exists. [37][38] Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are presented, with different changes in each variety. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is 50 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PTA is -58 with no change. [40] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties are provided, such as the basis of asphalt is -42, with a change of 60, and the warehouse receipt is 54100. [41] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations are shown, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is -194, with a change of -57, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 1015, with a change of 69. [43] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the given content for this part. [44][56][68] Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 18, 2025 shows that the commodity index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial products index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. [283] - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 18, 2025 is 1080.56, with a daily increase of 0.71%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.54%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.28%, and a year - to - date decrease of 12.00%. [284]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 18, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 542.60 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 5.32%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 476.60 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 6.99% [1] - The platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to focus on opportunities such as low - absorption long positions in platinum, long platinum and short palladium, and internal - external positive spreads. The palladium price has strong bottom support in the short - term but is suppressed by its own supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - and long - term. Both need to be vigilant against significant price fluctuations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Starting from the trading time on December 23, 2025, the daily opening volume limits for non - futures company members or clients in certain platinum and palladium futures contracts are set at 500 lots each. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity [2] - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, causing a temporary supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to loosen, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle support the palladium price [3] - **Outlook**: The palladium price has strong bottom support in the short - term due to spot shortage and a favorable macro - environment, but is suppressed by its own weak supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - and long - term [3] Commodity Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On December 18, 2025, the commodity index was 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index was 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial product index was 2207.25, up 0.79%; the PPI commodity index was 1367.53, up 0.65% [46] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 18, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2551.69, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 1.10%, a 1 - month increase of 3.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.54% [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pricing environment for precious metals remains favorable. The significant slowdown in core inflation in the US in November, continued dovish signals from the Fed, and escalating geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Gold is in a high - level consolidation, and silver has set new records. The deviation between the macro and risk assets drives the demand for hedging and allocation, which supports precious metals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - US November CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. Core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the 3% two months ago, indicating further easing of inflation pressure [3]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with the deposit rate at 2%. The market started to cut rate - cut bets and priced in the possibility of a rate hike in 2026, leading to a slight strengthening of the euro [3]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since February 2023, which was in line with expectations [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Although inflation data quality is limited, the downward trend of real interest rates remains intact. The decline of US November core CPI to 2.6% strengthens the market's pricing of Fed's continued easing before 2026. Despite the limited credibility of inflation data, the forward - looking pricing of the rate - cut path in the interest rate market has not reversed. Gold's demand as an asset allocation and risk - hedging tool remains stable due to geopolitical tensions and year - end liquidity tightening [4]. - **Silver**: In the context of stable gold prices, silver shows relative elasticity. In the short - term, it reflects changes in capital structure and volatility rather than a shift in macro - logic. In the medium - term, real interest rate decline and overall precious metal allocation demand support silver, but at high price levels, the risk of increased volatility and partial retracement rises [4]. Outlook - In the short - term, London gold is expected to trade in the range of [4150, 4500] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [60, 67] dollars per ounce [7]. Index Performance - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index was 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial products index was 2207.25, up 0.79%; the PPI commodity index was 1367.53, up 0.65% [49]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 18, 2025, it was 3717.12, up 0.07% for the day, 2.01% in the past 5 days, 11.68% in the past month, and 68.01% year - to - date [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, equity index futures declined while TL rose; metals and energy sectors advanced, with platinum, palladium, coking coal and coke leading the gains [12][14]. - The rally of coking coal and coke may be a valuation recovery driven by fund flows amid news catalysts, following an oversold period. With the intensification of winter stockpiling, their fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, but potential pressure from high coking coal imports and unstable thermal coal prices should be noted [18][25]. - For iron ore, overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, demand weakened, and port stocks edged up while steel mill stocks fell, with weak restocking willingness [34][35]. - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive investigations against Chinese enterprises and indicates that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case [39][40]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange was approved as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promote the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IC dropped by 0.7%, IM dropped by 0.3%, TL rose by 0.2% [12]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were palladium (up 7.0% with a 39.8% month - on - month surge in open interest), coking coal (up 6.1% with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and coke (up 5.4% with a 23.4% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.1% with a 1.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), poly - silicon (down 2.6% with an 8.9% month - on - month slide in open interest), and No.2 soybean (down 1.4% with a 35.9% month - on - month shrinkage in open interest) [13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On December 18th, coking coal rose by 6.1% to 1,126.5 yuan/tonne; coke climbed by 5.4% to 1,603.5 yuan/tonne. The rally may be due to news catalysts and fund flows after an oversold period [18]. - Two factors raised market expectations of tighter coal supply: the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" and safety interviews with major coal - producing regions. However, the short - term impact on production and supply is limited. - Winter stockpiling has started. For coking coal, some coal varieties' cost - performance has become attractive, and mid - and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. For coke, steel mills' procurement intensity has slightly increased [22][23][24]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 18, iron ore rose 1.6% to 777.5 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with Australian shipments slightly growing, Brazilian shipments increasing significantly, and non - mainstream shipments weakening. Demand weakened as iron water output dropped, and steel mills' profitability and sinter powder consumption and inventory declined. Port stocks edged up, and steel mill stocks fell with weak restocking willingness [33][34][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive launch of FSR investigations against Chinese enterprises, which are targeted and discriminatory. China urges the EU to stop the unreasonable suppression and create a fair business environment. - China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case, and China is willing to resolve differences through dialogue [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promotes the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry but gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "Oscillating Weakly", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating Upwards" [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various agricultural products, considering factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and policy impacts, and provides short - to long - term outlooks on price trends for each product [1][6][7] Summary by Product 1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed a divergent trend, with palm oil relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as pre - holiday position adjustment, US soybean price decline, US dollar strengthening, and South American soybean harvest expectations, the market is facing multiple factors' games. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating weakly, palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating weakly [6] 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply outlook for South American soybeans is optimistic, and both domestic and international markets are continuing to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: South American soybean sowing is nearly complete, and production prospects are good. In the US, soybean crushing has decreased month - on - month. In China, state - reserve soybean auctions continue, and inventory reduction is slow. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The purchasing demand for Northeast corn has declined, and price support has weakened. - **Logic**: Market rumors of reserve auctions and high - level price points have led to a change in market sentiment. In the Northeast, the willingness to sell has increased, and in North China, demand for Northeast corn has decreased. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival, with a low probability of breaking previous lows [1][9] 4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Demand has boosted spot prices in the short term, but the futures market remains under pressure. - **Logic**: Supply pressure still exists in the short and medium term, but sow production capacity is expected to decrease in the long term, and demand is improving due to the approaching winter solstice. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - term contracts may be in a weak range, while far - term contracts are supported by production capacity reduction expectations [9] 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The resistance at the pressure level is strong, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. - **Logic**: The market is in an oscillating pattern, with overseas supply increasing seasonally and demand being weak. - **Outlook**: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [13] 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the adjustment strength and time. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after rising, but it may be the strongest among the three types of rubber. The raw material butadiene price has shown support. - **Outlook**: The futures market is temporarily considered to be oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [15] 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices will continue to be strong in the short term. - **Logic**: Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing seasonally, but policy expectations and low warehouse receipts have attracted capital inflows. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of correction; in the long term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [16] 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of loose supply, sugar prices continue to fall. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the supply of new sugar is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the long term [16] 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Futures prices are fluctuating, and spot prices are continuously falling. - **Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors being more likely to be realized in the short term, and negative factors mainly related to long - term price transmission. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upwards [17] 10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Lack of driving force, with narrow - range fluctuations. - **Logic**: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, with stable prices in the short term and expected supply - demand adjustments in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Prices will be weakly stable [20] 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and futures prices are strengthening. - **Logic**: Supply pressure is gradually easing, and the futures market has certain support and game points. - **Outlook**: The market pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage or long - position opportunities in far - term contracts [21] Commodity Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on December 18, 2025, shows that the Commodity Index is 2272.81, up 0.44%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2604.10, up 0.53%; the Industrial Product Index is 2207.25, up 0.79%. - **Sector Index**: The Agricultural Product Index on December 18, 2025, is 915.35, with a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 1.34%, a 1 - month decline of 0.94%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.12%. The PPI Commodity Index is 1367.53, up 0.65% [178][179]