Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].

General Information - Report Title: Exchange Rate High-Frequency Tracking [1] - Analysts: Zhang Jing (Qualification No. F3022617, Investment Consultation No. Z0013604), Cheng Xiaoqing (Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635) [2] Report Core View - The recent upward movement of the 10V US Treasury yield and dollar fluctuations are mainly due to three factors: the risk of a stronger US Treasury yield caused by a stable US labor market and strong inflation; the tariff uncertainty from the "Greenland conflict" reigniting concerns about de-dollarization; and the spillover effect of Japanese bond yields. If inflation remains at a relatively high level and the labor market stays in a "low-speed balance," the short-term path of Fed monetary easing may be unsupported, and the dollar index may show a "weak first, then strong" pattern [2] Summary by Related Content Exchange Rate Core Logic - The risk of a stronger US Treasury yield is due to a stable US labor market, especially the unemployment rate, and strong inflation. As the PMI employment index and initial jobless claims have not deteriorated significantly, the market's expectation of this year's interest rate cut has been postponed [2] - The "Greenland conflict" has led to tariff uncertainty, reigniting concerns about de-dollarization. Trump's policies have affected some sovereign investors' asset allocation decisions, and if policy uncertainty persists, it may lead to a broader reevaluation of US Treasury asset allocation by international capital [2] - The spillover effect of Japanese bond yields: On January 19, Kao Ichimasa announced the dissolution of the parliament for early elections and proposed more radical tax cuts, causing market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation. Poor Japanese bond auction results have also deepened concerns about long-term bond demand [2] Economic Index Tracking - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded [3] - The difference between the US and European long-term inflation expectations is in a certain range [5] - The difference between the US and European short-term interest rate expectations has increased [7] - The US long-term inflation expectation has risen [7] - The US short-term interest rate expectation has changed [9] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [11] - The euro swap basis shows that the pressure on cross-border dollar liquidity is limited [13] - The CFTC net position shows that the dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [17] - The term spread continues to narrow when looking at US Treasury deficit concerns and the dollar trend from the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread [19] Correlation with Other Assets - There is a certain relationship between the dollar index and the gold-to-copper ratio [24] - There is a relationship between the dollar and copper prices, and copper prices have changed [27] - There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have changed [29] - There is a relationship between the US dollar-yuan central parity rate and the spot exchange rate [35]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, gold and silver prices rose significantly, with Shanghai gold up 3.67% and Shanghai silver up 12.78%. London gold exceeded $5100/oz and London silver approached $110/oz. Geopolitical risks and the implied US dollar credit crisis are the driving factors [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed chair nomination and independence risk are more important than the delayed rate - cut expectation. The market focuses on the Fed's independence as a new chair nomination nears [5]. - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is increasing, and investors should pay attention to trading rhythm. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the annual target range is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Movement and Driving Factors - On January 26, gold and silver prices soared. Geopolitical conflicts in January, such as those between the US and South America, Europe, and Iran, led to a US dollar credit crisis, driving up precious metals. The US's actions around Greenland also affected the market [4]. 2. Fed - Related Factors - US economic data is resilient, and the expected Fed rate - cut is postponed to June. But the market focuses on the Fed's independence risk as a new chair nomination nears. Reed is the most likely nominee and his dovish remarks support long - term rate - cut expectations [5]. 3. Market Outlook and Target Range - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is rising. If geopolitical issues ease or the Fed makes unexpectedly hawkish statements, short - term market adjustments may occur. The annual target range for spot gold is raised to $5900 - 6000/oz, and for spot silver to $120 - 150/oz [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23, equity index futures were mixed, CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities rose with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11]. - Platinum, silver, and lithium carbonate were the top three gainers in commodity futures, while crude oil, egg, and LSFO were the top three decliners [12][13][14]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On January 23, in equity index futures, IC rose 3.4% and IH dropped 0.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.04% [11][13]. - In commodity futures, platinum rose 10.4% with open interest decreasing 4.8% month - on - month; silver gained 8.5% with open interest increasing 2.8% month - on - month; lithium carbonate advanced 7.3% with open interest increasing 0.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - The top three decliners in commodity futures were crude oil (down 1.0% with open interest increasing 4.7% month - on - month), egg (down 0.6% with open interest decreasing 1.4% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 0.3% with open interest increasing 8.0% month - on - month) [13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) - **Platinum (铂)**: On January 23, it rose 10.4% to 685.90 yuan/g. With a sound supply - demand backdrop and improving macro expectations, it is expected to trend oscillatory and strong. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions have eased. Future supply risks remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [18][20][21]. - **Silver (白银)**: On January 23, it rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kg. Silver prices have strong long - term bullish support. Trump's softened stance on Greenland weakens safe - haven demand, but industrial demand is expected to grow, and the market has a structural deficit. Short - term prices may be oscillatory and strong at high levels [25][26][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: On January 23, it rose 7.3% to 181,520 yuan/ton. Short - term supply and demand are in tight balance, and prices are expected to trade strong with fluctuations. January supply is expected to be robust, demand is solid, and inventories are decreasing [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - On January 23, President Xi Jinping held a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, stating that China will boost high - quality development through high - standard opening - up and promote China - Brazil cooperation [37][39]. - On January 22, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 and will keep social financing costs low [38][39].

Group 1 - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2 - The EIA data shows that the inventory pressure in the US energy market continues, and the weekly data is bearish [4] Group 3 EIA Weekly Data Overview - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels in the week ending January 16, 2026 [4] - The refinery utilization rate dropped seasonally from 95.3% to 93.3% but remained at a high level for the same period [4] - Crude oil processing volume decreased by 354,000 barrels per day, which was the main driver of crude oil inventory accumulation [4] - Net crude oil exports increased by 27,000 barrels per day, with both imports and exports declining [4] - The estimated weekly crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory and Demand Data Details | Category | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US commercial crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | - 360.2 | △ 339.1 | | US Cushing crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 147.8 | - 74.5 | | US strategic petroleum reserve change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 80.6 | △ 21.4 | | US gasoline inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 597.7 | ▲ 897.7 | | US diesel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 334.8 | - 2.9 | | US jet fuel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 78.8 | ▼ - 89.2 | | US fuel oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 58.5 | ▲ 173.5 | | US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 753.8 | 4 621 | | US crude oil production | 10,000 barrels per day | 1373.2 | 1375.3 | | US refined oil apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 2017.2 | 2100.9 | | US gasoline apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 783.4 | 830.4 | | US diesel apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 352.4 | 409.6 | | US crude oil imports | 10,000 barrels per day | 644.7 | 709.2 | | US crude oil exports | 10,000 barrels per day | 368.8 | 430.6 | | US refinery crude oil processing volume | 10,000 barrels per day | 1660.4 | 1695.8 | | US refinery utilization rate | % | 93.3 | 95.3 | [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the resonance of supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, platinum prices have significantly increased. The fundamentals are healthy and macro expectations are positive, so platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to consider long - position layouts on dips [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs New Dynamics and Reasons - South Africa, a major supplier of platinum - group metals, has declared a "national disaster state" due to floods, which may impact local mining production, logistics, and supply chain stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions still pose risks. Under the influence of supply - side disruptions and geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector has strengthened. As of the time of writing, the main platinum contract on GFEX has risen 9.71% to 681.7 yuan per gram [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: South Africa faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. With few new projects from mining companies, overall production is limited. It is expected that global platinum and palladium mine production will increase by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively in 2026, reaching 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons. - Demand side: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive industrial demand to continue to pick up, and jewelry demand will also rise, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Price fluctuations may stimulate investment demand. It is expected that global platinum demand will grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 37.9 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In the long term, the high concentration of platinum supply means continuous volatility risks, while demand will expand steadily driven by industry and investment. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" scenario will amplify price elasticity. With healthy fundamentals and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Consider long - position layouts on dips [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 22, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton [1] - On January 22, the spot price index was 2633 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 68432 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 457 tons [1] - On January 22, the aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the SMA00 average price was 23740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of ×30 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7609 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 138856 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 101 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 143 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 22, the Baotai 4001 alloy price was 2300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 21, the refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2509 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 126641 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7513 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]

地缘紧张有所缓解，铂钯延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-23 据新华社1⽉22⽇消息，美国总统特朗普21⽇在社交媒体发⽂称，他已同 北约秘书⻓吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实 施原定于2⽉1⽇⽣效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施。地缘紧张有所缓解， 铂钯延续震荡⾛势。据上海有⾊⽹数据，截⾄2026年1⽉22⽇收盘，GFE X铂主⼒合约收盘价为633.85元/克，跌幅-0.92%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘 价为483.75元/克，跌幅-1.90%。 铂观点：供应与地缘风险持续扰动，铂金延续震荡 主要逻辑：近期南非北部地区持续强降雨引发洪灾，预计将对矿区生产、 物流运输及供应稳定性造成潜在影响。地缘方面近日紧张情况有所缓解， 据新华社1月22日消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体发文称，他已同 北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实 施原定于2月1日生效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施，且不会武力夺取格陵 兰岛。美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样是近期影响市场的 关键因素，短期铂价或延续震荡走势，可关注 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market focuses on the price - rising chain, and the bond market is in a long - short game. The stock index futures are desensitized to negative factors, the stock index options should appropriately supplement call options for defense, and the bond market in the treasury bond futures has a long - short game with a slight decline [1]. - For stock index futures, the equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Some investors may trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7]. - For treasury bond futures, the main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **View**: Desensitized to negative factors [7] - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated upward on Thursday. The market is desensitized to the sporadic selling of broad - based ETFs. The ChiNext and STAR Market are the best in style, while the SSE 50 is weak. The impact of the adjustment of implicit margin for margin trading is weakening. Resource stocks have become market hotspots, and the value of resource products is re - evaluated. In the future, the influence of regulatory cooling will gradually weaken, and the market will be driven by funds. Institutional funds are expected to take over the pricing power, and the CSI 500 and ChiNext/STAR Market styles have comparative advantages [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IC [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: Supplement call options for defense in the short term [7] - **Logic**: The trading volume of each option variety mostly declined, while the open interest increased. Considering the weak option sentiment index and the strengthening of implied volatility, it is speculated that some investors trade call options for hedging. It is recommended to sell call options for covered增厚 and appropriately supplement call options for defense in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered strategy [7] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Long - short game, slight decline in the bond market [8] - **Logic**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment cooled but was not very weak. The improvement of the equity market sentiment, the tightening of the overnight capital due to the tax payment and the small net injection of reverse repurchase by the central bank, and the stable open interest of the main futures contracts and the support from the cash bond allocation disk led to a limited adjustment. After the market closed, the central bank's MLF over - renewal and the statement about the space for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts improved the sentiment of the ultra - long - term bond market. After the MLF over - renewal and the end of the large tax period, the capital may be relaxed [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of TL; Curve strategy: the curve may flatten first and then steepen [8] - **Outlook**: Oscillate [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are consolidating at high levels, and silver prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term downside space of gold is temporarily limited, and the medium - to - long - term pattern of oscillating strongly remains unchanged. Silver may operate in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with amplified fluctuations, and one should be vigilant about the risk of the US changing its stance on the Greenland issue [1][2]. - The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the long - term bullish support for silver is still strong [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Gold prices at home and abroad are stabilizing at high levels. Trump's statement at the Davos Forum weakened the short - term market risk - aversion sentiment. The US Q3 economic data is resilient. The risk on the Greenland issue is not completely eliminated, and the market remains cautious, limiting the short - term downside space of gold [2]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term pattern of gold oscillating strongly remains unchanged [2]. Silver - **Logic**: COMEX silver prices are oscillating after a surge, and Shanghai silver is slightly oscillating strongly. Trump's softened stance on the Greenland issue weakens the risk - aversion demand. The global industrial demand for silver will continue to grow in the next five years, and the silver market has a structural deficit, with rapid consumption of physical inventory and strong ETF investment demand, supporting the short - term silver price. The high volatility of silver, stable short - term lease interest rates, and the impact of the suspension of key mineral tariffs are also evident [2]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish support for silver is still strong. The key silver mineral tariffs are not completely cancelled, and the problem of spot structural tightness caused by hoarding demand has not been fundamentally solved [3]. Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The commodity index is 2444.59, up 0.69%; the commodity 20 index is 2803.19, up 0.45%; the industrial products index is 2334.69, up 0.78%; the PPI commodity index is 1442.08, up 0.33% [47]. Precious Metals Index - On January 22, 2026, the precious metals index was 4529.44, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a 5 - day increase of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 16.94%, and a year - to - date increase of 18.44% [48].