1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed's interest - rate meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, liquidity - driven soft - landing trades are heating up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate Hassert has a rising nomination probability, which could lead to a smooth phase for liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risk trades [5]. - Domestic macro: The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive, and it is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, continuing the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals sector and high - financial - attribute varieties in the non - ferrous metals sector such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous varieties (tin, lithium carbonate). Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to industrial - attribute commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. The equity index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings and is defensive [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Attention should be paid to the overcrowding of small - cap funds [6]. - Stock index options: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include the possibility of the option market's liquidity falling short of expectations [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors to watch are policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff - related factors [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: With the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and tight silver spot supply, they are expected to oscillate upward in the short term, with silver having greater elasticity. Attention should be paid to the US economic performance, Fed monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: After the peak season in the third quarter, the market is facing loading pressure and lacks upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [6]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is still weak, and attention should be paid to cost support, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [6]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Factors to watch include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [6]. - Coke: Supported by cost, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the spot price continues to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [6]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost support exists, but there is a lack of upward momentum, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key points are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Silicomanganese: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and the market is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - Glass: Supply cuts have been implemented, and the spot price has risen, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. The focus is on spot sales [6]. - Soda ash: Downstream low - price replenishment has led to a slight increase in the spot price, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [6]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have led to a short - term decline in copper prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, unexpected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends [6]. - Aluminum: Inventory has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - Zinc: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery [6]. - Lead: Secondary lead smelters are about to resume production, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [6]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply release [6]. - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly rebounded, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - Tin: Supply constraints still exist, and the price is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and expected demand improvement [6]. - Industrial silicon: Sentiment fluctuates, but supply is abundant, and the price is oscillating in the short term. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing, and the price has slightly strengthened, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [8]. - LPG: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments, with a short - term outlook of oscillation [8]. - Asphalt: The futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is weakly oscillating, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the crude oil market and oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. The focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - Methanol: There is some support at the 2100 level, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - energy and overseas developments [8]. - Urea: High inventory and cost support co - exist, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Attention should be paid to coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference [8]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimistic sentiment is hard to reverse, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions [8]. - PX: The market lacks clear guidance, and the cost - emotion game maintains oscillation, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: New Fengming has started new production and stopped old production, and short - term new supply is limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - Short - fiber: Downstream factories are digesting previous inventory, and processing fees are expected to be compressed, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [8]. - Bottle chips: Cost is stagnant, and supply - demand drivers are limited, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: Downstream transactions have improved limitedly, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - conditions [8]. - PP: Fundamental support is limited, and the market weakens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Plastic: Short - term maintenance has decreased, and the market is in a weak pattern, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - conditions [8]. - Styrene: Concerns about over - inventory still exist, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic soda: With low valuation and weak expectations, the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [8]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has improved, and waiting for positive factors to ferment, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [8]. - Protein meal: Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory rise. Key factors are weather, domestic demand, macro - conditions, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - Corn/starch: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand, macro - conditions, and weather [8]. - Live pigs: Producers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the price oscillates, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - Natural rubber: The market is oscillating and adjusting, and the bearish sentiment remains, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - Synthetic rubber: The market has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factor is significant crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are demand and inventory [8]. - Sugar: The strategy is to sell at high prices, with a short - term outlook of oscillatory decline. Key factors are imports and Brazilian production [8]. - Pulp: The futures price has risen with increased trading volume, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [8]. - Offset paper: It follows the pulp market and strengthens, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up [8]. - Logs: The market is oscillating at the bottom, with a short - term outlook of oscillation. Key factors are special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive next year, with a moderately increased intensity. The deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 4% in 2026, and the net supply of government bonds is projected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 820 billion yuan compared to 2025. The front-loading degree of fiscal policy implementation may moderate compared to this year [2][11][42]. - For the bond market, the fiscal policy is likely to provide a measured boost rather than strong stimulus, so a significant market adjustment driven by fiscal expansion is unlikely. However, attention should be paid to potential volatility caused by market speculation about further policy escalation. The pressure from government bond supply is likely to be manageable, and the impact may mainly manifest in the term structure, maintaining a steepening yield curve [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Proactive Fiscal Policy Stone - The central government's stance on macro policy is relatively proactive. The "Recommendations for the 15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening counter - and cross - cyclical adjustments and implementing more proactive macro policies, as well as leveraging the role of proactive fiscal policy to improve fiscal sustainability [12][43]. Moderate Expansion of Fiscal Policy 2.1 The Economy is generally better than the same period last year - Domestic demand continues its moderate recovery. The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of this year was better than the same period last year (5.2% vs. 4.8%), and the inflation readings are overall better than last year. Consumer confidence has been warming up from low levels. The necessity for a significant marginal increase in fiscal policy intensity in 2026 is likely not high [13][43]. - Tariff risks have marginally diminished. The US side will cancel the 10 - percent "fentanyl tariffs" and suspend the 24 - percent reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods for an additional year. The trade situation may have eased compared to the same period last year [14][44]. 2.2 Estimated Treasury Bond Net Financing: 7.08 tn Yuan, + 420 bn Yuan - The targeted deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to be 4%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.88 trillion yuan. The main entity for increasing leverage is likely to be the central government, with a targeted deficit of 5.08 trillion yuan, while local governments' target deficit is expected to remain flat at 80 billion yuan [14][47]. - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to total 1.6 trillion yuan, and the scale of special treasury bonds for capital injection into central financial institutions is projected to be 40 billion yuan. The total issuance scale of special treasury bonds in 2026 is estimated to reach 2 trillion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds in 2026 is projected to be 7.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 42 billion yuan YoY [15][47][48]. 2.3 Estimated Local Government Bond Net Financing: at 8.1 tn Yuan, + 400 bn Yuan - The scale of local government bonds is projected to reach 5.6 trillion yuan in 2026. The targeted local government deficit is expected to remain unchanged at 80 billion yuan, and the scale of special - purpose bonds is anticipated to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. An additional 50 billion yuan from the unused bond quota may be allocated next year. The net financing of local government bonds is projected to reach approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan compared to the current year [29][64]. - Overall, the net financing scale of government bonds is projected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan in 2026, an increase of approximately 82 billion yuan compared to the current year [30][64]. Optimized Expenditure Structure: Investing in People - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, fiscal policy will continue to focus on people's livelihood, optimizing the expenditure structure and increasing the proportion of spending on livelihood - related projects [38][71]. Less Front - loaded Implementation of Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy support in 2026 is expected to remain front - loaded, but the degree of front - loading may be reduced. The utilization of 50 billion yuan in new policy - oriented financial tools and idle fiscal deposits may bolster the economic fundamentals at the end of this year and early next year. The U.S. mid - term elections in the second half of 2026 could reignite tariff risks, necessitating reserved policy space for response measures [39][72].

EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to close short positions on a phased basis. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing the market, and the oil price will continue to oscillate. Different chemical products show different trends due to factors such as raw material supply, device status, and market demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing, and the oil price continues to oscillate. The EIA data shows a seasonal pattern of crude oil inventory reduction and gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US last week. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Asphalt**: Anticipated disruptions in raw material supply cause a sharp rise in asphalt futures prices. If there is a substantial supply cut, the asphalt futures price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is driven up by the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela. However, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with the crude oil price. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low [13]. - **PX**: The cost decline slows down, and PX profitability continues to expand. The polyester load remains high, and the market expects a tight supply of raw materials in 2026, so PX is likely to rise easily and fall difficult in the short term [14]. - **PTA**: It follows the rise of upstream costs, and the spot basis remains firm. The overall supply - demand pattern of near - month PTA is relatively tight, and the profit has stronger support below [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a state of weak reality and divided expectations. The recent trading focuses on far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026 [17][19]. - **Styrene**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it oscillates. The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but its own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in December [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Factories reduce production to maintain prices, and ethylene glycol rebounds after an over - decline. In the short term, the supply - demand pressure eases slightly, but the long - term inventory accumulation pattern remains [22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in upstream costs eases, and the short - fiber price fluctuates with the upstream. The factory inventory decreases slightly, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [24][26]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs. It follows the rise of upstream polyester raw materials, but the price increase is limited due to the restart of some devices [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances occur again, and methanol is expected to oscillate strongly. The port inventory decreases, and there are expectations of supply reduction in the Middle East and non - Iranian sources [30][31]. - **Urea**: A new round of Indian tenders and enterprise inventory - reduction information boost the market, and the futures price rebounds temporarily. The actual fundamental support is insufficient, and the impact of Indian tenders on the domestic market is relatively limited [32][34]. - **Plastic**: The oil price weakens, and the support from maintenance is limited. It oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [36]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance provides support, and it oscillates. The PDH profit is under short - term pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure [37]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance provides support. It oscillates. The PDH maintenance expectation has a boosting effect, but the short - term powder profit is under pressure [38]. - **PVC**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. However, the over - supply expectation in the PVC market has not been reversed, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium term [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations and is likely to oscillate. There is short - term inventory reduction, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [40][41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [44]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given, along with the latest values and changes [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part, only the variety names are mentioned. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all show an upward trend on December 17, 2025 [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 17, 2025 shows a decline. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date percentage changes are - 0.69%, - 2.18%, - 7.35%, and - 12.62% respectively [286].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the stock index futures market needs to be observed for its sustainability. The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, but there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to deal with it with high - dividend and price - rising chains [1][7]. - The short - term amplitude of stock index options has increased, and the mid - term situation still needs to be observed. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved. The capital side is expected to continue to support the bond market sentiment, but caution is still needed for the ultra - long - term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 1.68 points, - 4.48 points, 8.97 points, and 6.26 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 3.52 points, - 1.09 points, 0.08 points, and - 1.12 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 21.0 points, 6.2 points, 9.0 points, and 67.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.6 points, 0.4 points, - 11.8 points, and - 4.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 628 lots, - 1896 lots, 2748 lots, and - 9704 lots [7]. - The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, both rising more than 2%. The TMT and new energy vehicle chains were active, and the market volume rose to 1.83 trillion. The number of limit - up stocks was 57, and the number of limit - down stocks was 25. The relatively small number of limit - up stocks indicated a general rise in the market. ETFs saw significant volume in the afternoon, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. However, there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to hold IC and the dividend index [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The total turnover of the options market exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a month. Due to the market rebound, the proportion of intraday call option trading volume increased, the PCR of open interest rebounded, and the ratio PCR decreased significantly. The indicators basically returned to the level of two days ago, showing a volatile sentiment. The volatility of each variety has increased compared to two days ago, but the overall level is still at a relatively low level since July. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also changed. The central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 189.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7][8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.01%, and 0.63% respectively. The bond market sentiment improved, and the interest rates of all maturities decreased, with the ultra - long - term decreasing relatively more. The capital side was relatively loose, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased, which supported the long - position sentiment in the bond market. The ultra - long - term may have an oversold rebound. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [3][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 15, 2025, China's reserve currency in November was 3.8019683 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 3.7780993 trillion yuan [12]. - On December 16, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payrolls in the US in November was 64,000, compared with the previous value of - 105,000 and the forecast value of 50,000 [12]. - On December 18, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted year - on - year core CPI in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 3%. On December 19, 2025, the year - on - year PCE price index in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 2.79% [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic macro: On December 17, the central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. In the first 11 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Sichuan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5% year - on - year. In Shaanxi, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Henan increased by 8.0% year - on - year [13]. - Non - ferrous metals: On December 15, the inventories of zinc, lead, tin, and copper reached new highs in several months, with significant increases in changes. The inventories of nickel and aluminum decreased, and the inventories of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable at low levels [14]. - Energy and chemical industry: The 2026 regulatory work meeting of the National Energy Administration was held in Beijing. It was required to strengthen energy supervision law enforcement and ensure the safety of the energy and power system [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries were provided in the given text for this part.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment. Although the fundamentals in the off - season are not good, it is expected that the futures market will still have room for a low - level rebound [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has risen while the trading volume has weakened. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the inventory is accumulating. The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still has support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is weak, but the coking and steel enterprises will gradually start winter storage replenishment of raw materials. The current futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to follow the oscillation of coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches and winter storage begins, the spot trading of coking coal is expected to improve, and the fundamentals and market sentiment will gradually recover. The futures valuation may be repaired upwards [2][11] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The high cost supports the price, but the market supply and demand are in a loose state, the cost transmission is not smooth, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][14] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The high cost supports the bottom of the price. However, the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. The upside space of the futures price should be carefully considered, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There is still an expectation of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, otherwise, the price will rise. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand are in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][12][14] Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the futures market is showing a strong performance. However, the export expectation has weakened, the demand in the off - season is weakening, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and the disturbance of the winter storage replenishment expectation should be noted [6] Commodity Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.56% to 2262.95, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.57% to 2590.35, the industrial products index increased by 0.45% to 2189.88, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.52% to 1358.64 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on December 17, 2025, was 1935.67, with a daily increase of 0.34%, a 5 - day increase of 1.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.33%, and a year - to - date decrease of 8.19% [103]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Platinum**: The report suggests that the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. It recommends paying attention to opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets [2]. - **Palladium**: In the short - term, palladium prices are likely to be strong due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment. However, in the long - term, it is subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Platinum - **Price Performance**: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 527.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 7% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment provides support as the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has slightly increased. The supply is tightening, and there is a significant price difference between domestic and foreign markets, presenting an arbitrage opportunity. South Africa, the main supply country, faces power and weather risks. Demand is expanding in various fields, and the "rate cut + soft landing" scenario will increase price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand situation and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish. Investment opportunities such as low - cost buying, long platinum and short palladium, and positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets are recommended [2]. Palladium - **Price Performance**: On December 17, 2025, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 455.15 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 6.99% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The key supply disruption is the Russian geopolitical issue. The US investigation into Russian palladium imports has led to a temporary supply shortage. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term shortages and a Fed rate - cut cycle support the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Given the spot shortage and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price has strong bottom support. In the short - term, low - cost buying is recommended, while in the long - term, it will be subject to weakening supply - demand fundamentals [3]. Commodity Indexes - **Characteristic Indexes**: On December 17, 2025, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2590.35, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI commodity index was 1358.64, up 0.52% [47]. - **Sector Indexes**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, was 2551.16, with a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [48].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of stable gold and rising silver continues, supported by macro - easing and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold remains stable at a high level, while silver accelerates its upward movement and touches $66 under the impetus of funds, with short - term fluctuations increasing but the medium - term direction unchanged [1] - The resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and the gold price enters the high - level repricing stage. The market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided before the US inflation data is released, and the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center provide medium - term support for precious metals. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price due to the US pressure on Venezuela's energy transportation and rising regional military risks. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term [3] - The year - to - date increase of silver has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It is a result of the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors, and there is a need to digest over - heated indicators. However, the medium - term bullish logic for silver remains [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - The US is considering sanctions against the so - called "shadow fleet" tankers for transporting Russian oil and the traders facilitating related transactions. These measures are being prepared and may be launched as early as this week if Russian President Putin refuses to reach a proposed peace agreement with Ukraine [2] - Germany's manufacturing industry is a drag factor, with the output index falling to 49.4, ending nine consecutive months of growth. The manufacturing PMI drops to 47.7, staying in the contraction range for the second consecutive month. France's manufacturing shows positive signals, with the PMI rising to 50.6, reaching a 40 - month high, and the manufacturing output index rebounding significantly to 49.7 from 45.0 in November, hitting a four - month high [2] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday, classifying fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction", which greatly expands the US government's authority to combat the illegal trafficking of this synthetic opioid [2] 2. Price Logic - For gold, the resonance of macro and geopolitical variables continues, and it enters the high - level repricing stage. Before the US inflation data is released, the market's pricing of further interest rate cuts has not fully subsided. The Fed's continuous interest rate cuts and the downward shift of the real interest rate center support precious metals in the medium term. Geopolitical premiums are re - embedded in the gold price. Gold is more likely to digest the parabolic rise through high - level oscillations in the short term rather than a rapid reversal [3] - For silver, its year - to - date increase has significantly expanded and recently reached a record high of $66 per ounce. It reflects the concentrated allocation behavior of funds to high - elasticity assets under the logic of gold revaluation. The continuous net inflow of ETF funds strengthens the trend trading but also increases short - term congestion. The short - term price has high sensitivity to various factors. There is a need to digest over - heated indicators through high - level oscillations or pullbacks. However, in the medium term, the bullish logic for silver remains, and it is more likely to operate in a pattern of "sharp rise - correction - repricing" [3] 3. Outlook - In the short term, the focus for London gold is in the range of [$4150, $4500] per ounce, and for London silver, it is in the range of [$60, $67] per ounce [6] 4. Index Information Comprehensive Index - No detailed information provided Special Index - The Commodity Index is 2262.95, up 0.56%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2590.35, up 0.57%; the Industrial Products Index is 2189.88, up 0.45%; the PPI Commodity Index is 1358.64, up 0.52% [48] Sector Index - The Precious Metals Index on December 17, 2025, is 3714.40, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a 5 - day increase of 3.74%, a 1 - month increase of 10.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 67.89% [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall outlook for the agricultural industry is mostly "oscillating weakly," with some exceptions like paper pulp having an "oscillating upward" outlook [7][9][10][11][13][16][18][20][22][25]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including their current market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and future outlooks. The market is influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy adjustments, international trade, and weather conditions. Each product has its own unique set of drivers and challenges, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities [7][9][10][13][16][18][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continued to run weakly yesterday. Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, and domestic oils and fats continued to oscillate weakly yesterday [7]. - **Logic**: From a macro - environment perspective, the US November non - farm employment was better than expected, the US dollar oscillated and closed down on Tuesday but showed a pattern of first decline and then rise; crude oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about supply - demand surplus. From an industrial perspective, Brazilian soybean planting is nearing completion, and Argentine soybean planting is nearly 60% complete, with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest. There is uncertainty in US soybean demand. Recently, domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is large, so the domestic soybean oil destocking speed is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of December are still bearish, but the probability of a return to the palm oil production reduction season and inventory reduction in the producing areas is high; Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low; Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase later [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly. The oils and fats market is currently facing a game of multiple factors, and the market sentiment is weak recently [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: With continuous state - reserve auctions, double meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) may oscillate weakly [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is 97% complete, and Argentine soybean sowing is over half. Argentina is accelerating the sales of new crops due to the reduction of export tariffs. In the US, the November soybean crushing volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Domestically, in the short term, the third state - reserve imported soybean auction will be held on Friday, and the spot price of soybean meal has been slightly adjusted down. In the medium term, the progress of January soybean purchases is 88%, and the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed import and crushing increases the volatility of rapeseed meal. In the long term, whether the South American weather is normal determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: With multiple factors at play, the market is in a stalemate [10]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices showed a mixed trend today. Recently, due to news of regulatory reserve auctions and the market reaching a high - level integer mark, the market sentiment has turned, and the futures price has fallen. Affected by this, the upstream's reluctance to sell has loosened, and the market's grain supply has increased. Enterprises are mostly adopting a wait - and - see policy. In the South, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease in the next two weeks, and the price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. However, there may be support from inventory - building demand after the price correction [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: As stocking begins, demand drives a rebound [13]. - **Logic**: As the Winter Solstice approaches, downstream stocking has gradually started, driving a short - term rebound in pig prices. However, the supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the second - fattened large pigs are starting to be slaughtered in December. In the medium term, the number of commercial pigs to be slaughtered is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and it is expected that the supply pressure of commercial pigs will gradually ease after May 2026 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The near - term contracts are expected to run in a weak range, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [13]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to the strength of the short - term pressure level [14]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, natural rubber rose following the strong commodity atmosphere and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber. It is currently near the short - term high - range pressure level. The price increase was driven by geopolitical news and the overall commodity rebound, but there is no strong driving force, and it still maintains a range - bound oscillation. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm but may face a decline later. The demand side is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to oscillate, with no obvious trend in the short term [16]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment remains strong [17]. - **Logic**: The BR futures continued to rise yesterday. The market is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price oscillated last week, and although there is still sufficient supply, the short - term downstream synthetic rubber spot and futures prices are strong, and the market demand has certain support [18]. - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to oscillate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [18]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Policy - related news boosts cotton prices [18]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the Xinjiang cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase year - on - year, and the supply is increasing. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory of cotton is increasing, but the inventory - building speed is lower than expected, which is beneficial to cotton prices. The market expects a significant reduction in the Xinjiang cotton planting area next year, attracting capital inflows, but the actual policy implementation is uncertain [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply pressure puts downward pressure on sugar prices [20]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the global sugar supply is expected to shift from tight to loose in the 2025/2026 season, with expected increases in production in major producing countries. The Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, and the market's focus is shifting to the Northern Hemisphere. As the supply increases, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - to - long term due to the expected supply surplus [20]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **View**: Futures oscillate, and spot prices continue to fall [20]. - **Logic**: Recently, paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a relatively high level. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the rising price of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations due to mill shutdowns, and relatively high actual demand. Bearish factors include difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper products and seasonal demand decline [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward. Bullish news raises the bottom, but there is still hedging pressure from the top [22]. 3.10 Double - Glued Paper - **View**: The market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and paper prices run stably [22]. - **Logic**: The cost support from the upstream wood pulp market is general. The downstream social orders are not strong, and most dealers maintain stable prices. The market lacks upward and downward driving forces in the short term. In the future, there is a plan to resume production for some shutdown production lines in Shandong, and the supply pressure still exists [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of double - glued paper is expected to run weakly and stably, supported by publisher pick - up and paper mill costs but with a pessimistic medium - term demand outlook [22]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The supply pressure is gradually easing, and logs are mainly running stably [25]. - **Logic**: The supply - side pressure is gradually alleviating. Some companies are clearing inventory at the end of the year, which has increased the port's outbound volume. The overseas shipping cost has decreased, and domestic traders are still taking normal deliveries. Some local processing plants have taken early holidays, and the spot price is expected to be stable in the short term. The futures market is under pressure, but the low - valued near - term contracts have certain support [25]. - **Outlook**: The log market will continue to be in a loose pattern. There is little room for near - term contracts to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities for far - term contracts [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced, with lithium carbonate and precious metals leading the gains [2][10][12][13] - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% YoY, while the revenue from the transfer of land - use rights dropped by 10.7% YoY [1][3][38][39][40] - The "lowest price online" requirement for merchants by platforms may constitute monopoly, and the Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced. China's financial futures: IC rose by 2.0%, IM rose by 1.5%, TL rose by 0.6% [10][12] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers are lithium carbonate (up 7.6%, open interest up 0.4% MoM), platinum (up 7.0%, open interest up 26.3% MoM), and palladium (up 7.0%, open interest up 30.3% MoM). The top three decliners are rapeseed oil (down 1.7%, open interest up 5.1% MoM), ethenylbenzene (down 1.4%, open interest up 33.9% MoM), and No.2 Soybean (down 1.4%, open interest down 17.2% MoM) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise 3.1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On December 17th, lithium carbonate rose 7.6% to 108,620 yuan per ton [17][21] - The public notice of cancelling 27 mining rights in Yichun has a greater impact on market sentiment than substantive impact. Currently, lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand but may face marginal weakness. The resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine and off - season demand are key trading points. Short - term prices are expected to remain high, and January's production scheduling and Jianxiawo Mine's resumption news are key factors [18][19][20][21][22][23] 3.1.2.2 Platinum - On December 17th, platinum rose 7.0% to 527.55 yuan per gram [27][31] - U.S. non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data slightly lifted market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year, and tightening spot supply supports platinum prices. In the future, South Africa faces supply risks, and the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. Overall, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [28][29][30][31] 3.1.2.3 Palladium - On December 17th, palladium rose 7.0% to 455.15 yuan per gram [33][35] - Russian geopolitical tensions cause short - term supply tightness, while palladium faces significant structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term physical tightness and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support palladium prices [34][35] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - From January to November, China's national general public budget revenue reached 20.0516 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 0.8%. National tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, down 3.7% YoY [38][40] - From January to November, national government - managed fund budget revenue was 4.0274 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 4.9%. Central government - managed fund budget revenue was 393.8 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 3.6336 trillion yuan, down 5.5% YoY. Revenue from the transfer of state - owned land - use rights was 2.9119 trillion yuan, a YoY drop of 10.7% [39][40] 3.2.2 Industry News - Platforms mandating merchants to offer the "lowest price online" may constitute abuse of dominant market position or monopoly agreement. The Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, stamp duty revenue totaled 404.4 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 27%. Among this, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43]