Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold prices are oscillating around $4,100 per ounce after three consecutive days of gains, with an annual increase of over 55% in 2025, the best annual performance since 1979. The restart of the US government brings risk - preference repair, while weak employment data, declining business confidence, and interest - rate cut expectations support the medium - term bullish logic. Although the short - term rebound of the US dollar restrains the increase, the gold price center is still supported [1][3]. - Silver has broken through the previous high to $51.7 per ounce, reaching a new stage high. When gold is consolidating, funds are flowing to more volatile precious metals. The tight situation in the London market has been structurally alleviated, but the spot price still gets support from capital momentum and may further rise if gold prices remain strong and the US dollar continues to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections **Key Information** - US House members ended a 53 - day recess and returned to Washington to vote to end the longest government shutdown in US history [2]. - The Russian Ministry of Finance will issue two types of domestic government bonds denominated in RMB on December 8, with maturities ranging from three to seven years [2]. - As of late October, US companies cut more than 11,000 jobs per week, and the consumer confidence continued to decline [2][3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the US suspension of the export control penetration rule is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after the one - year suspension [2]. **Price Logic** - **Gold**: Gold is consolidating in the short - term high range ($4,100 - $4,150). The restart of the US government will bring a window of intensive data in the next three weeks. Preliminary alternative indicators show weak economic momentum. The decline in business confidence and employment slowdown mean that the downward pressure on real interest rates in the fourth quarter persists, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has room for further strengthening, so the gold price center is still supported [3]. - **Silver**: Silver has broken through the previous high. The tight situation in the London market has been alleviated, and the supply has been replenished. However, the spot price is still supported by capital momentum. If the gold price remains strong and the US dollar continues to decline, the silver price is expected to rise further [3]. **Outlook** - In the short term, attention should be paid to the first batch of macro - data after the government restart and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. If employment and business confidence remain weak, the pricing of an interest - rate cut in December may be further consolidated. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the London gold price in the range of $4,070 - $4,200 per ounce, and the London silver price in the range of $49 - $53 per ounce [4][7]. **Commodity Index** - **Composite Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on November 12, 2025, with increases of 0.40%, 0.48%, 0.58%, and 0.44% respectively [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 12, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.27% for the day, 3.84% in the past 5 days, - 0.77% in the past month, and 52.03% since the beginning of the year [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation. The short - term performance of each variety varies, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations influencing their trends [4]. - For crude oil, short - term drivers are lacking, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The supply pressure in the real - world remains, but OPEC+ is becoming more cautious about increasing production, showing a willingness to support prices. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needs attention [9][10]. - For asphalt, the spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating. The premium - driving factors are weakening, and there is still significant inventory accumulation pressure [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - US sanctions on Russia's Lukoil have affected its European business, and multiple European countries' winter energy supplies may be at risk. Bulgaria's available gasoline can only last about a month, and its diesel reserves can last over 50 days [10]. - The Trump administration's plan to sell new offshore oil exploration rights on the US West Coast is likely to fail [10]. - Venezuela did not seek military support from Russia despite the tense regional situation [10]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - On November 11, the short - term drivers were lacking, and the market continued to oscillate. The global inventory was rising, showing supply pressure in the real - world. However, the improvement in refined - oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provided phased support to the demand side. OPEC+ was cautious about increasing production, and the price was expected to oscillate. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needed attention [9][10]. Asphalt - On November 11, the spot price fell, and the futures price oscillated. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela was under control. The asphalt futures price broke below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which was expected to turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread oscillated around 400 yuan/ton. The production schedule in November decreased significantly, but the demand entered the off - season. The supply tension was relieved, and the high - premium driving factors were weakening [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it showed a weak oscillation. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, but the premium on Russian oil still existed. The fuel - oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November was expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. The fuel - oil price still needed to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The refinery processing demand was weak, and the fuel - oil demand was still sluggish [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it might show a moderately upward oscillation. It followed the crude - oil price and oscillated weakly. The domestic refined - oil supply pressure increased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was under the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. However, its current valuation was low and it would follow the crude - oil price fluctuations [13]. PX - On November 11, the commodity market sentiment cooled down, and it was waiting for contradictions to accumulate under the stalemate in profitability. The financial market risk appetite recovered, but the international oil price lacked further positive support. The PX price followed the cost and adjusted downward. The supply remained at a high level, and the price was expected to remain within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the gasoline profit changes would drive further trade flows [14]. PTA - On November 11, the supply - demand situation improved month - on - month, and the processing fee was repaired. The upstream cost cooled down, and the PTA price followed the decline. The supply - demand pattern improved slightly due to some device overhauls, and the spot processing fee was repaired month - on - month. However, the profit - repair space was relatively limited without unplanned overhauls [15][16]. Pure Benzene - On November 11, the port resumed inventory accumulation, and it was running weakly. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread was below 100, at a low level in recent years. The downstream benzene - ethylene overhauls were numerous in November, and the inventory - accumulation pressure was mainly on the pure - benzene side. The upward driving force was currently insufficient, but the valuation was at a low level [18][19]. Styrene - On November 11, the inventory - filling pressure still existed, and it was oscillating weakly. The driving force for going long was insufficient, but the short - selling space was getting smaller. The benzene - ethylene inventory began to decrease, but the pure - benzene inventory pressure reappeared. The pressure in November was mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - On November 11, the long - shutdown device restarted as scheduled, and the supply pressure was gradually realized. The polyester - chain commodity sentiment cooled down, and the ethylene - glycol price adjusted downward. The supply pressure increased as the long - shutdown device restarted, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continued. The price was expected to remain in a low - level range in the short term [21][22]. Short - Fiber - On November 11, the market was characterized by buying on dips and avoiding buying on rallies, and attention should be paid to the off - season to peak - season transition. The polyester upstream price adjusted downward, and the short - fiber price followed the cost and decreased slightly. The market was in the off - season to peak - season transition period, and the downstream demand was expected to weaken. The short - fiber price was expected to move within a range [24][25]. Polyester Bottle Chip - On November 11, the market performance was dull, and it was passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw material price adjusted downward, and the polyester bottle - chip price decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it followed the upstream price fluctuations. The processing fee was expected to be adjusted within a range [26]. Methanol - On November 11, the high - inventory reality suppressed the price, and overseas disturbances were not significant. The methanol price was oscillating and consolidating. The high inventory in coastal areas and sufficient imports suppressed the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The inland methanol also faced high - inventory pressure and relied on downstream olefin procurement and traders' willingness to hold goods [28]. Urea - On November 11, the export information boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions became cautious, and the futures price was expected to oscillate in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota information significantly boosted the spot market, but the high - inventory pressure still existed, and the short - term fundamentals were difficult to support high prices [28]. LLDPE - On November 11, the maintenance support was still limited, and it was oscillating weakly. The oil price was oscillating, and the supply - side support was limited. With the end of the peak season, the upstream and mid - stream still had the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which would suppress the price increase. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak before the significant increase in maintenance [29]. PP - On November 11, the downstream transactions increased, but the maintenance support was limited, and it was oscillating downward. The futures price was oscillating downward. The downstream transactions increased as the price decreased. The supply - side support was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period in the past five years. The price was expected to remain weak in the short term [30]. PL - On November 11, the inventory needed time to be digested, and it was oscillating weakly. The Saudi Aramco's November CP prices for propane and butane decreased. The downstream restocking enthusiasm weakened, and the enterprise inventory was slightly high. The PL price was expected to remain weak in the short term [31]. PVC - On November 11, the weak reality suppressed the price, and it was oscillating weakly. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the PVC fundamentals were under pressure. The production was expected to increase, the downstream demand was seasonally weakening, the export orders were weakening, and the cost was expected to remain stable [33]. Caustic Soda - On November 11, it was in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state and was oscillating. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the caustic - soda supply - demand expectation was poor. Attention should be paid to whether the low - profit situation would drive upstream production cuts. The cost might increase due to the possible decline in liquid - chlorine price, and the futures price was expected to oscillate widely [34]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showed different changes, including increases and decreases [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., were presented, with corresponding changes in the basis and specific warehouse - receipt quantities [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., also showed different changes [39]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - For each variety, detailed basis and spread data were provided, but specific content was not elaborated in the text, only the variety names were mentioned [40][52][64]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On November 11, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of decline. The energy index also showed a decline on that day, with a decline of 0.56%, a decline of 0.99% in the past five days, an increase of 2.04% in the past month, and a decline of 5.98% since the beginning of the year [280][281].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the news of winter coal supply guarantee, there were concerns about increased supply, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to decline rapidly. The expectation of loose coal supply and lower price center also negatively affected the prices of alloys and soda ash through the cost side. Other varieties in the sector were relatively stable. During the night session, the prices of steel and ore rebounded slightly, while other varieties remained volatile [1][2]. - In the current traditional off - season, the industry performance is average. Steel and iron ore, which had significant previous declines, have a chance of a phased rebound. Later, the price drive from the industrial side in the off - season is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can still be watched [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - The negative feedback transmission in the current industrial chain is not smooth. Steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul is weaker than in the same period of the past two years. Later, as arrivals further decline, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally, alleviating the overall inventory accumulation pressure of iron ore. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of scrap steel show both weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [2]. Carbon Element - After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are under great profit pressure and are resistant to further price increases. However, the cost support for coke is relatively strong, and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the coke price is expected to be volatile. Energy supply guarantee mainly involves thermal coal, and coal supply guarantee during the heating season is in line with expectations. Also, safety production work is emphasized, and the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has been launched. The supply of coking coal is still expected to be poor this year, and the spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The coking coal price is expected to be volatile [2]. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of silicomanganese, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increase. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, it will return to fundamental trading, and the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, the price will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price is expected to continue to be volatile and downward. Recently, due to increased costs and factory cold - repair, the market trading sentiment has improved, and the spot price has slightly increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The price above the industry's high - cost line may face certain pressure again. In the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting production capacity reduction [3]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: In the spot market, transactions are generally weak, and market sentiment has weakened. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and seasonal overhauls have increased, leading to a significant drop in steel production. In the off - season, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The current futures valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy factors that may drive a low - level rebound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipment is relatively stable, and arrivals have decreased this week. The demand for iron ore is affected by sintering restrictions and overhauls, and the iron - making water output has declined. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, but the supply - demand may be repaired marginally later. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand shows different trends in short - and long - processes. The overall daily consumption has slightly decreased, and the steel mill inventory has increased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [8]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke followed coking coal and was weak. The supply is difficult to increase due to high costs and environmental protection requirements. Although steel mills have overhaul expectations, the demand support still exists. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to be volatile [8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal was weak due to the news of energy supply guarantee. The supply is tight, and imports are also limited. The spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is suppressed by finished products. It is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply may be disturbed, but the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, it will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still at the bottom of the cycle. Recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the market sentiment has improved, but the long - term supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [13]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the sharp decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support expectation for silicomanganese. The market supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost [15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support for ferrosilicon. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend of the stock index futures market is expected to be moderately bullish; the stock index options market is expected to be volatile; the Treasury bond futures market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and moderately bullish in the long - term [7][8][9] 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index futures market, under the condition of shrinking trading volume, the market risk preference continues to converge. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style asset allocation. In the stock index options market, as the market style rotates and no clear capital main line has been formed, it is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns. In the Treasury bond futures market, the market lacks a clear direction in the short - term and is in a volatile consolidation phase, but is expected to be moderately bullish in the long - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and closed low, barely holding above 4000 points, with trading volume shrinking to 2 trillion yuan. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices retreated, and the TMT sectors led the decline. The coal sector also led the decline due to concerns about a potential reduction in pit - mouth coal prices. Low - position sectors such as commerce and retail, real estate, and steel led the gains. The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy report may support the fundamentals of bank stocks and increase the expectation of counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustment. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETFs and long positions in IM contracts [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety showed a slight weakening trend, and the option sentiment index was weak. The PCR of technology - sector options decreased significantly on Monday, and the PCR of option positions of all varieties declined on Tuesday, indicating a cold market sentiment. The implied volatility of options showed mixed trends. It is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns [8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the prices of Treasury bond futures were volatile and unchanged. The yields of most interest - rate bonds declined, and the 5 - year and 7 - year China Development Bank bonds performed well. The central bank significantly increased net investment in the open market, and the supply and demand of funds in the inter - bank market tended to balance, but interest rates remained firm. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction and is in a volatile consolidation phase, but is expected to be moderately bullish in the long - term. Operation suggestions include maintaining caution in trend strategies, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels in hedging strategies, appropriately paying attention to basis widening in basis strategies, and appropriately paying attention to curve steepening in curve strategies [8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include China's new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply growth rate in October, the US CPI annual rate in October, China's year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, proposing to deepen financial reform and opening - up, and improve the macro - economic governance effectiveness. The US has suspended the implementation of the export - control penetration rule, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after one - year suspension. As of now, the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, of which 83 have been issued and listed, with a total issuance fund of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan [11][12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the need to monitor data in the stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures markets, but specific data are not detailed [13][17][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating strongly. There is still room for short - term price increase, and the regional strong trend continues. Consider short - selling opportunities around 2200 [2][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate strongly, while soybean oil is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. Buy on dips, avoid chasing highs, and consider selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts [6]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating weakly. The near - term end has high - capacity realization and inventory pressure, while the far - term end is supported by production - reduction expectations [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. There may be a repair market for the RU - NR spread, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Short - term, it is recommended to short on rallies before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; long - term, it may oscillate strongly as the 25/26 annual balance sheet may see inventory reduction [13][14]. - **Sugar**: Medium - to long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly; short - term, it fluctuates around 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [14]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The spot market is dominated by weak supply - demand and birch needle warehouse receipts, while the futures market is driven by funds. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market price stops falling and stabilizes as tenders are launched [17][19]. - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly. The fundamentals are weak, and the spot price is under pressure, with recent bottom - oscillating [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products. In general, the agricultural product market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. Different products show different trends. For example, corn prices are currently supported by downstream stocking and upstream hoarding, but there is pressure from new - grain listing in the fourth quarter; pig prices are low due to abundant supply in the short - to medium - term, but supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026; some products like oils and fats, protein meal, and cotton are affected by factors such as international market conditions, production expectations, and inventory levels [2][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the rise in oils and fats. Factors such as the possible resumption of the US government, the outlook for US soybean exports, the planting progress of South American soybeans, and the supply and demand of domestic and international oils and fats affect the market. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean oil is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: The far - term contracts are making up for losses, and the spread between near - term and far - term contracts is narrowing. The market is affected by factors such as the upcoming USDA report, the export of Brazilian soybeans, and the supply and demand of domestic and international soybean meal. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Corn/Starch**: Downstream stocking and upstream hoarding lead to a strongly oscillating market. Currently, prices are supported by supply and demand factors, but there is pressure from new - grain listing in the fourth quarter. The short - term price may continue to rise, and there may be short - selling opportunities around 2200 [2][7]. - **Pigs**: Monthly supply is abundant, and pig prices are running at a low level. The supply is high in the short - to medium - term but may ease in the second half of 2026. The demand, inventory, and market rhythm also affect the price. The market shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Narrowly oscillating, waiting for speculative opportunities. The price is affected by factors such as overseas supply, demand, and the spread between RU and NR. There may be a repair market for the RU - NR spread [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Temporarily stabilizing, but the pressure from raw materials is still large. The market is affected by the price of butadiene and supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. - **Cotton**: Narrowly fluctuating, pay attention to the adjustment of production expectation differences. The short - term price is affected by production expectations and supply - demand relationships, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range. Long - term, it may oscillate strongly [13][14]. - **Sugar**: The external market stabilizes, and the domestic market rebounds slightly. The international and domestic sugar supply and demand situations affect the price. Medium - to long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly; short - term, it fluctuates around 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is driven by funds, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The market is affected by factors such as the price of packaging paper, import costs, and supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to oscillate within a certain range [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tender peak season, the spot price stabilizes and strengthens. The market may show a pattern of rising first and then falling, with price stabilization as tenders are launched [17][19]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price mainly oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand of logs are affected by factors such as import volume, demand from the real - estate industry, and inventory levels. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report lists the data monitoring sections for various agricultural products such as oils and fats, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - glued paper, and logs, but specific data content is not fully elaborated in the provided text.

1. Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and large - scale assets lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so large - scale assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation in large - scale assets in the fourth quarter, hold long positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. In case of a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there seems to be a short - term tight situation in US dollar liquidity, it will not have a significant impact on the prices of large - scale assets. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth year - on - year was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the inflation data for October. In addition, there is a possibility that the consumption data for October may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: As mentioned above, large - scale assets may enter a shock period in the short term, but the overall fourth - quarter allocation idea remains unchanged, and the macro environment is favorable for risk assets [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Summary 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. However, there is a problem of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Key points to watch include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Key points to watch include the performance of the US fundamentals, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the trend of the global equity market. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is pressure on loading, lacking upward drivers. Key points to watch include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season of demand, the market is under pressure, and the price on the disk has fallen from a high level. Key points to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and hot metal production. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation has been released in advance, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. Key points to watch include the production and shipment of overseas mines, domestic hot metal production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is being proposed. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply is difficult to increase, and the sentiment in the spot market remains strong. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support remains strong, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. Key points to watch include raw material costs and steel procurement situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but there is pressure on the upper side of the disk. Key points to watch include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Glass**: Production cuts in Shahe have been implemented, but demand remains weak. Key points to watch include spot production and sales. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has strengthened, and light soda ash has shown a short - term recovery. Key points to watch include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price has adjusted in the short term. Key points to watch include supply disruptions, better - than - expected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still one of over - supply, and the alumina price is under pressure and in a shock state. Key points to watch include less - than - expected ore复产, better - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产, and extreme market trends. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is rising in a shock manner. Key points to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and the zinc price is in a high - level shock state. Key points to watch include macro - turning risks and better - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless steel market on the disk is in a shock state. Key points to watch include Indonesian policy risks and better - than - expected demand growth. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and better - than - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expected复产 is uncertain, and attention should be paid to significant price fluctuations. Key points to watch include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving factors, and the market continues to be in a shock state. Key points to watch include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **LPG**: The external release of refineries has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Key points to watch include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price has fallen, and the asphalt futures price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include geopolitical factors and crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may show a strong - upward shock trend. Key points to watch include crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [10]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - energy and overseas dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions have become more cautious. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between downward supply - demand and cost support. The short - term market is in a low - level range and under obvious upward pressure. Key points to watch include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PX**: There are rumors of some factories reducing the load of disproportionation, which has affected market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the price center has moved up, and there is no unexpected reduction in supply. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and processing fees are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: It follows the raw material price increase passively. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning situations [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PP**: The production volume remains at a relatively high level, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Plastic**: The downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the styrene market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state, and the caustic soda price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The far - month contracts have made up for the increase, and the monthly spread has narrowed. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Downstream procurement and upstream hoarding have led to an upward breakthrough in futures prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: The monthly slaughter volume is sufficient, and the pig price is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Cotton**: The price is fluctuating in a narrow range and in a shock state. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: It has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market has driven the spot market, and the market is dominated by disk funds. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics [10]. - **Logs**: Domestic timber has been delivered successively, and the log market on the disk is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific strategies, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), such as the strategies for copper, zinc, and soybean in the "Opportunity to Watch" section [4]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the cross - border arbitrage opportunities in the Chinese commodity futures market. It assesses various factors including inventory levels, price differentials, market supply and demand, and macro - economic policies in different sectors such as forex, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. Based on these analyses, it provides trading suggestions for each commodity, mainly including "on hold" and specific long - short strategies [4][6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Forex Market - Last week, the US Dollar Index rose because Powell signaled that a December rate cut is not certain. However, the Fed's expectation of strong US consumption may be overly optimistic, and it is expected to continue rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US Dollar may rise in the short - term due to factors like a weak yen, but the potential for further increases is limited and there is no trend reversal [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals 3.2.1 Gold - Last week, the SHFE - COMEX and COMEX - LBMA gold price differentials fluctuated, with valuations at a neutral level. Currently, the gold price is in an adjustment period, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [11]. 3.2.2 Silver - Last week, the silver price spread was range - bounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread recovered to neutrality. In the short - term, silver is expected to fluctuate, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - Last week, the spot discount for LME copper narrowed, LME copper inventories slightly decreased, while Chinese copper social inventories continued to accumulate, and the spot copper import window was at a loss. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [22]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - The traditional peak demand season has passed in China, with inventory accumulating, while LME inventory declined. The price ratio fluctuated within a range, and the cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [28]. 3.3.3 Zinc - Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc is open, and inventory accumulation has slowed. LME plans to limit large open interest in near contracts to ease the squeeze pressure. The strategy is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc [37]. 3.3.4 Lead - Last week, domestic social inventory rose slightly, smelters' inventory remained low, and LME lead inventory decreased with a high canceled warrants ratio. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [38]. 3.3.5 Nickel - The import window is currently closed, with price differences fluctuating within a range and the extreme difference situation improved. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [45]. 3.3.6 Tin - Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed with an import loss of 16,292 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the price spread was not obvious. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. The strategy is to hold [55]. 3.5 Energy 3.5.1 Crude Oil - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. Due to relatively stable Chinese inventory, large freight fluctuations, and uncertain Russian crude supply, the strategy is to hold [59]. 3.5.2 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week, the spread fluctuated. The US gas price was pushed up by cold wave expectations and increased exports, while the European price declined due to a loose LNG market and warm temperature expectations. In the short - term, be cautious about shorting; in the medium - term, there is an expectation of the spread rising in winter [94]. 3.6 Agriculturals 3.6.1 Soybean - Last week, import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the margins are expected to recover. The strategy is to long CBOT and short DCE [65]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Last week, import crushing margins increased, and the overseas market is expected to be stronger. The short - term strategy is to hold [69]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - Last week, there was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage zone. With the approaching of the global tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. The strategy is to hold [72]. 3.7 Overseas Arbitrage 3.7.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week, the spread between COMEX and LME copper widened due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to adjust, COMEX copper inventory will accumulate, and LME inventory will decline, so the spread may narrow. The strategy is to short COMEX and long LME [79]. 3.7.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. With a weakening month - spread and oscillating Middle - East crude oil spot discounts, the short - term guidance is limited, and the strategy is to hold [84]. 3.7.3 WTI - Brent - Last week, the WTI - Brent spread fluctuated. With a continuously weak US refinery utilization rate, reduced refined oil inventory pressure, and expected production increase, the spread driving force is limited, and the strategy is to hold [90].

风险提示: | | 董丹丹 | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 册 | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号: Z0020561 | | | 分 | | | | | | 员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | 杨黎 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | 投资咨询号:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工略升。截至2025年11月6日,国内苯乙烯开工率66.94%,环比+0.22pct,同比-0.9pct。 周度产量33.29万吨,较上期增0.95万吨,华北和华南各有一套装置检修重启,另外东北和华南新增装 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the global styrene market situation as of November 2025 [1][3] Group 2: Domestic Styrene Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 66.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 pct [3] - The weekly output was 33.29 tons, an increase of 0.95 tons from the previous period. The restart of maintenance of units in North and South China and the normal production of new units in Northeast and South China led to an overall increase in domestic supply [3] Group 3: Overseas Styrene Situation - As of November 10, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 75.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 pct, at a relatively low level in the past five - year comparison [3] - A 635,000 - ton line of LyondellBasell in the US started maintenance in November, and a 240,000 - ton INEOS device in Belgium restarted in early November [3] Group 4: Global Styrene Situation - As of November 10, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 71.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 pct, close to the lowest level in the past six years [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].