关注伊朗局势动向，港口库存仍未兑现去库周期 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤500元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润310元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差33元/吨（-13），内蒙南线1810元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2195元/吨（+10），鲁 南基差43元/吨（-3）；河南2015元/吨（+5），河南基差-137元/吨（-8）；河北2015元/吨（+0），河北基差-77元/吨（-13）。 隆众内地工厂库存424720吨（-13700），西北工厂库存242100吨（-19300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单265660吨（+27392）， 西北工厂待发订单163800吨（+13000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2282元/吨（-8），太仓基差-70元/吨（-21），CFR中国271美元/吨（+3），华东进口价差-22元/ 吨（-2），常州甲醇2275元/吨；广东甲醇2285元/吨（+5），广东基差-67元/吨（-8）。隆众港口总库存1472051吨（+14600）， 江苏港口库存730851吨（+17900），浙江港口库存342000吨（ ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-30 油价反弹走高，成本端支撑偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7049元/吨（+82），PP主力合约收盘价为6870元/吨（+92），LL华北现货为6890 元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为6640元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-159元/吨（-22）， LL华东基差为-99元/吨（-32）， PP华东基差为-230元/吨（-62）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为85.4%（+0.7%），PP开工率为74.8%（-1.2%）。 单边：LLDPE谨慎逢低做多套保，PP谨慎逢低做多套保；短期成本端波动偏强，但需关注聚烯烃当前供需基本面 仍偏弱，反弹持续性或受限，持续关注地缘局势变化。 跨期：无 进出口方面，LL进口利润为50.6元/吨（-315.1），PP进口利润为-323.1元/吨（+89.7），PP出口利润为-69.5美元/吨（-1.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为34.6%（-1.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为42.1%（-2.9%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-30 农业备肥跟进 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-29，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -37元/吨（+2）；河南基差：-47元/吨（-8）；江苏基差：-27元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润215元/吨（+20），出口利润 941元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2026-01-29，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.49 万吨（-0.11），港口样本 库存量为14.40 万吨（+1.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-29，复合肥产能利用率41.34%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为66.45%（+2.80%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.59日（+0.71）。 尿素延续震荡偏强，农业需求跟进，现货成交维持较好行情，春节收单压力较小，后续关注现货价格上方政策指 导价。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂 ...

库存小幅去化，碳酸锂弱势震荡 市场分析 2026-01-29，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于169200元/吨，收于164820元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.24%。当 日成交量为521334手，持仓量为402347手，前一交易日持仓量410985手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为2460元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单30211手，较上个交易日变化245手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价162000-174000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价159000-170000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2250美元/吨，较前一日变化-20美元/吨。 碳酸锂昨日整体呈震荡走势，盘中由于库存数据发布显示去化，导致一度翻红，但多空博弈后尾盘依然收跌。近 期交易所为维护市场公平秩序，对碳酸锂品种各类违规行为保持高压态势，一定程度上抑制了行情的急涨急跌。 现货方面，由于下游库存水平较低，前期价格持续走高情况下，现货成交情况较为清淡，但节前存在补库需求， 对价格起到一定的支撑作用。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 3、 宏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, CP prices rose month - on - month, and the cost side had strong support. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remained tight, with strong cost - side support. The market sentiment in the chemical sector was warming up, and the futures market continued its strong trend. It was recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 6317 yuan/ton (+36), the spot price in East China was 6540 yuan/ton (-10), and in North China was 6400 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis was 223 yuan/ton (-46), and the Shandong basis was 83 yuan/ton (-36). The operating rate was 70% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 241 US dollars/ton (-16), and the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 95 US dollars/ton (+7). The import profit was - 308 yuan/ton (+75), and the in - plant inventory was 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The PP powder operating rate was 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 200 yuan/ton (+20); the propylene oxide operating rate was 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the n - butanol operating rate was 86% (-1%), with a production profit of 1,070 yuan/ton (+30); the octanol operating rate was 91% (-5%), with a production profit of 1,270 yuan/ton (+150); the acrylic acid operating rate was 84% (+3%), with a production profit of 150 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate was 69% (-6%), with a production profit of - 954 yuan/ton (+71); the phenol - acetone operating rate was 88% (+3%), with a production profit of - 781 yuan/ton (+137) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply**: PDH device shutdown news was gradually realized. Multiple PDH devices were under maintenance or restarted, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic PDH operating rate and a tight short - term supply in the propylene spot market [2] - **Demand**: Downstream rigid demand support continued, but after the propylene price rose to a high level, downstream costs were significantly pressured, and demand follow - up might be limited. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed changes, with different impacts on propylene demand [2] - **Cost**: Geopolitical disturbances between the US and Iran strengthened, causing international oil prices to rise significantly. Propane prices remained strong. Saudi Aramco's February CP for propane was announced at 545 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton, strengthening the short - term cost - side support for propylene [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure was still tight, which supported prices. Geopolitical disturbances led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and the external propane market was strong. Due to profit pressure, PDH device maintenance might intensify, and the short - term futures market was expected to remain strong [3] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

氯碱日报 | 2026-01-30 氯碱库存继续累积 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4895元/吨（-18）；华东基差-215元/吨（-2）;华南基差-175元/吨（+18）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4680元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4720元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润-0.8美元/吨（+5.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1964元/吨（-5）；山东32%液碱基差-95元/吨（+2）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价598元/吨（-1）；山东50%液碱报价1010元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

期货研究报告|黑色专题 2026-01-30 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 能源消费结构深层变革，电力结构转型率先垂范 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 余彩云 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 过去十年全球能源消费结构和电力供给结构都发生了巨大的转变，化石能源在其中的 占比不断下降，而可再生能源则迎来了高速发展期，这种翻天覆地的变革对于全球而 言，不仅带来前所未有的机遇，也带来难以估量的挑战。电力市场作为这次能源消费 结构改革的排头兵，即走在了改革的前列，也承担着改革的重任。展望未来，能源消 费结构的变革之路依旧道阻且长，然而转型的方向却始终如一，其中电力市场依旧起 到决定性作用。电力结构变革不仅仅是发电模式的转变，更需要电网系统、配套储能 和终端消费的共同协作，通过技术进步和制度优化最终完成电力市场的历史性变革， 进而推动全球能源消费结构的巨大革新。 核心观点 yucaiyun@htfc.com ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On January 28, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1161700 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1374000 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2626300 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 60700 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1587500 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 35800 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 118800 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 218800 contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day. For example, the call trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 560500 contracts, the put trading volume was 484900 contracts, and the total trading volume was 1045400 contracts [19]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.83, with a month - on - month change of +0.17; the position PCR was reported at 0.73, with a month - on - month change of +0.01. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2][33]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 18.30%, with a month - on - month change of +0.41%. The VIX and its month - on - month changes of other types of options are also presented, such as the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 18.35%, with a month - on - month change of +0.62% [3][48].

FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 美联储如期按兵不动，关注伊朗局势 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下，全球争夺矿产和能源资源的局势明朗。同时，特朗普近期就格陵兰岛一系列事件使得美国 ...