市场分析 海外现货升水再次走达到268美元/吨，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，基本面方面全面偏向 利好，国内社会库存持续下滑，11月冶炼端产量环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体 现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格 的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经 全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不 改，再通胀尚未体现。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：跨期正套。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 海外升水再次走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为268.39美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化180元/吨至22740元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日160元/吨至22680元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22670元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-0 ...

市场有所回暖，沪镍不锈钢小幅上探 镍品种 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 2025-12-02日沪镍主力合约2601开于117800元/吨，收于118050元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.49%，当日成交量为 88522（-57307）手，持仓量为121924（-967）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约继续震荡上探，小幅收涨，但仍属于前期超跌后的小幅修复，并未形成绝对的反弹 走势。近期宏观面宽松预期是这波震荡修复的关键因素，美联储降息预期提升、中美关系缓和修复，对大宗商品 起到积极作用。基本面供过于求的局面仍存，但成本线附近支撑明显。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场较为平静，价格持稳运行。上周印尼工厂在菲律宾招标1.4%镍矿成交落地 至50美元/湿吨，环比略有下跌；1.3%镍矿成交落地至43美元/湿吨。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主， 镍矿装船出货效率尚可。下游镍铁价格表现弱势铁厂利润受挫，对原料镍矿采购多保持谨慎。部分铁厂已有减产 止损的心理操作。印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25， 升水区间多在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for urea is "interval shock and bullish", the cross - period rating is "wait - and - see", and the cross - variety rating is "none" [3] Core View - Urea spot prices are firm, but new order transactions are slowing down. With the restart of some production facilities in the compound fertilizer industry and the entry of off - season storage, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved, and factory inventories have decreased. The export quota news at the end of the year improves the export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 2, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1680 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 7 yuan/ton (-22), in Henan was - 7 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 7 yuan/ton (-12) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 2, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 2, 2025, the urea production profit was 150 yuan/ton (-10). The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the melamine capacity utilization rate was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. The export profit was 931 yuan/ton (-21) [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 2, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 2, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: The investment strategy is to expect prices to be volatile but trending stronger [3]. - Red dates: The investment strategy is neutral [8]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: Currently in a seasonal off - peak period during the transfer - to -出库 stage, with slow consumption in the terminal market and competition from low - priced citrus. However, due to the impact of the storage structure this season, price polarization is severe. With the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date market is at a critical "new - old season transition" stage. The acquisition in Xinjiang is about 80% complete, and the supply in the market is sufficient. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality this year is better than last year. There is a large inventory pressure, and the market has a pessimistic outlook for the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9488 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.40%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market of Fuji apples such as late Fuji is in a seasonal off - peak period. The western and Shandong regions are mainly shipping on a sporadic and on - demand basis, with low enthusiasm for merchants to purchase and pack, and the trading atmosphere is average. The sales in the distribution area are slow, and citrus has an obvious impact on medium - and low - grade apple products. It is expected to remain in an off - peak market in the short term, with stable prices [2]. Strategy - The price is expected to be volatile but trending stronger. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, with the upcoming holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9110 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a strong upward trend yesterday. The acquisition progress of gray dates in Xinjiang has reached 80%, and the supply in the Hebei and Guangdong markets is sufficient. The new products are the main trading items, and the prices vary and tend to decline. The market is in a "new - old season transition" stage, with large inventory pressure and a pessimistic market outlook [7]. Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot products in the production area, the futures price may move towards the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The near - month contract may still have some room for decline [8].

农产品日报 | 2025-12-03 出栏维持高位，猪价延续震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11455元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.23元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-225，较前交易日变动-150；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.49元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH01+35，较前交易日变动-110；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+45，较前交易日变动+40。 据农业农村部监测，12月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为127.82，比昨天上升0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.30，比昨天上升0.34个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.59元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；牛肉66.88 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；羊肉63.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.44元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；白条鸡17.61 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.6%。 市场分析 ...

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

塞尔维亚NIS炼厂因制裁关停 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌68美分，收于每桶58.64美元，跌幅为1.15%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌72美分，收于每桶62.45美元，跌幅为1.14%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.75%，报450 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 针对美国总统特朗普当地时间12月2日声称哥伦比亚可能因毒品问题而"遭受攻击"的言论，哥伦比亚总统佩特 罗当天通过社交媒体警告说，切勿威胁哥方主权，"侵犯我们的主权即宣战"。当天早些时候，特朗普在白宫的内 阁会议上对媒体称，哥伦比亚境内的制毒窝点制造可卡因并销往美国，任何向美国"贩毒"的国家都将"遭受攻击"。 （来源：Bloomberg） 3、 塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，已达成协议，将在本周末前确保俄罗斯持股的塞尔维亚石油公司（NIS）的支付交 易安全，美国并未暂停对NIS炼油厂的制裁，同时，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司在塞尔维亚的炼油厂将在数日内关 闭。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-12-03 4、 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯将继续以具有竞争力的价格 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-03 11月央行买债不及预期，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影 ...

供需宽松格局延续，盘面反弹空间受限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5959元/吨（-6），丙烯华东现货价6015元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价6070元/吨（+50）， 丙烯华东基差56元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差75元/吨（+38）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR178美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（-5），进口利润-301元/吨（+3），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-330元/吨（-50）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-175元/吨（+73）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润308元/ 吨（+68）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润429元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-518元/吨 （-38）；酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（+0）。 丙烯日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 单边：观望；短期成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡，但 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-03 市场驱动有限，盘面维持震荡运行 市场分析 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t12月2日地区价格：山东市场，4410-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4470； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷580美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷570美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4520元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4442元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷563美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4466元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4388元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯 ...