1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be moderately bullish with short - term fluctuations [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day. Although the supply - demand situation of glass has deteriorated in the medium - to - long - term, there are short - term speculative opportunities due to the planned shutdown of multiple glass production lines around New Year's Day and the mid - stream replenishment before the Spring Festival. Technically, the bulls slightly dominate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures rebounded slightly. With the clear cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month and the rumored shutdown plans in Hubei, the expectation of supply reduction was hyped, slightly pushing up the market. The demand for thin - plate glass from home appliance orders supports the market, but most manufacturers focus on collecting payments and are bearish on next year's market. Given the high supply pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass production capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The outlook is that glass prices are expected to fluctuate and be moderately bullish around New Year's Day [3]. - The operating strategy is to be moderately bullish [4]. 3.2 Market Review - **Spot price**: As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,010 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (-20) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The futures price of the glass 05 contract closed at 1,057 yuan/ton last Friday, up 16 yuan from the previous week [11]. - **Monthly spread**: As of December 26, the futures price of soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 1,057 yuan/ton, with a spread of 143 yuan/ton (+8). The basis of the glass 05 contract was - 37 yuan/ton (-36) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-6) [12][17]. 3.3 Profit - **Cost and profit of different processes**: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 392 yuan/ton (-10). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,162 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 152 yuan/ton (-19). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross profit was - 27 yuan/ton (-20) [21]. - **Fuel prices**: On December 26, the industrial natural - gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US sulfur 3% shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 573 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 154,105 tons/day (-1,000) last Friday, with 218 production lines in operation. The fourth line of Dongguan Humen of Guangdong Xinyi with a capacity of 900 tons/day shut down last week [23]. 3.5 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 5,862.3 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1,086.2 million weight boxes (+41.2), in Central China was 704.5 million weight boxes (+19.5), in East China was 1,172.3 million weight boxes (-37), in South China was 770.5 million weight boxes (-26.8), in Southwest China was 1,190.7 million weight boxes (-6.5), the inventory in Shahe factories was 394 million weight boxes (+44), and in Hubei factories was 501 million weight boxes (+26) [27]. 3.6 Deep - processing - The order days of glass deep - processing were 9.7 days in mid - December (-0.4). The comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 100% on December 25 (+11%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% on December 26 [31][34]. 3.7 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [40]. - **Real estate**: In November, China's real - estate completion area was 45.9293 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new - construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 3 to December 21, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.55 million m², a month - on - month increase of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The real - estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [45]. 3.8 Cost - end - Soda Ash - **Futures price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,200 yuan/ton (+24), and the basis of the soda ash Huazhong 05 contract was 100 yuan/ton (-24) [51][52]. - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the soda - ash profit was - 21 yuan/ton (+21). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 57 yuan/ton (+9); the cost of the co - production method was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit [61]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,544 (a weekly increase of 12). The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons (a monthly decrease of 60,800 tons), including 703,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly decrease of 68,700 tons) and 735,500 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 7,900 tons) [65][68]. - **Apparent consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > hot - rolled coil > coke > iron ore > rebar. The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices, but the black sector was relatively weak [4]. - For steel products, the static valuation is neutral, and it is expected to run in a range with short - term trading recommended. For coal and coke, although the absolute inventory in the industry chain is not high, the market expectation is weak. For iron ore, there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment by steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed narrow - range fluctuations [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall futures market atmosphere was warm with rising commodity prices. The non - ferrous sector led, and many varieties in the energy and chemical sector rose by about 5%. The black sector was relatively weak [4][8] 03 Spot Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented [10] 04 Profit and Valuation - The rebar futures price has risen above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation. Steel mill profitability has stabilized [12][13] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production and demand were both weak, but inventory depletion was smooth, and short - term supply - demand contradictions were not significant. China implements export license management for steel, and there is an expectation of weakening steel exports [5][14] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, both port and steel mill iron ore inventories increased significantly. Iron ore shipments slightly declined from the high level, but arrivals are expected to remain high. Iron water production has stopped falling, and there is an expectation of steel mill resumption in January [5][23] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production declined, but Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and coking coal inventory increased significantly. The market expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the downstream winter storage replenishment rhythm [5][28] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and coking plant profits are currently low. Last week, coke production remained stable month - on - month, but inventory increased again [5][30] 09 Variety Price Differences - The steel mill's on - paper profit fluctuated at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference widened [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The State Council executive meeting made arrangements for implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference. The DCE adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin. Other information includes international interest rate adjustments, economic data, and industry - related policies [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Team of the Industrial Service Headquarters - Researcher: Wang Guodong Report's Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and the market anticipates an optimistic outlook for next year, leading to price increases in many non - ferrous metals, the spot discount has widened more than seasonally. It is not recommended to chase high prices before the holiday [3]. - The prices of domestic and imported bauxite are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is under pressure and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite prices in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. Domestic and imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina remains unchanged at 95.9 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to heavy pollution weather control [3][13]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons to 44.529 million tons week - on - week. New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity [3][22]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week. Overall demand is entering the off - season, and the high - level and volatile aluminum prices are suppressing downstream demand [3]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly during the week. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy has rebounded in Chongqing due to the lifting of environmental protection control, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the holiday [4]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6][7]. 03. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi are stable, while those in Henan continue to decline. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult for many mines to resume production in the short term [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has dropped by $2.9 per dry - ton to $67 per dry - ton. The shipment volume of Guinea's ore has increased, and the spot supply of imported ore has increased, putting pressure on ore prices [10]. - The long - term contract price of Guinea's large - scale mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2025 [10]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change, and the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, also with no week - on - week change. The operating rate was 83.6% [13]. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot decreased by 63.9 yuan/ton to 2,660.9 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased by 93,000 tons to 4.773 million tons week - on - week. Alumina enterprises in Henan have reduced or stopped roasting furnaces due to environmental protection factors, while enterprises in other regions maintain stable production [13]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to encourage mergers and reorganizations of large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises, which pushed alumina prices to the daily limit during the session [13]. 05. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [15][16][17][18]. 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.337 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.529 million tons, also an increase of 35,000 tons week - on - week [22]. - In terms of capacity reduction and resumption, some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy have been shut down for technological transformation, involving a capacity of about 40,000 tons, and some aluminum plants in Xinjiang have reduced production due to environmental protection control [22]. - New production capacities are being put into operation, such as Tianshan Aluminum's 200,000 - ton capacity and Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity, which will reach full production in 2026 [22]. 07. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai Aluminum, the prices of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [24]. 08. Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [26][27][28][29]. 09. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises has increased by 1% to 60.8% week - on - week. The lifting of environmental protection control in Chongqing has promoted the recovery of the operating rate, but the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises are weakening [32]. 10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the prices of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [34][35][37][38]. 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has decreased by 0.7% to 60.8% week - on - week [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises has decreased by 0.6% to 51% week - on - week. The demand for industrial profiles is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the operating rate of construction profiles has declined due to the off - season [42]. - The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises has decreased by 1% to 64% week - on - week. Due to environmental protection and the off - season, some enterprises plan to slow down production and conduct equipment maintenance [42]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has decreased by 1.6% to 60.4% week - on - week. The continuous strengthening of environmental protection control in Henan Gongyi has restricted production capacity, and the grid order matching progress is slow [45]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises has decreased by 0.4% to 59.6% week - on - week. The high - level and volatile aluminum prices have suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises, and the overall operating rate has declined [45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - oscillatory [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold long positions cautiously, hold light positions during holidays; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading; Lithium carbonate - range oscillation [1][10][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - range trading; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - weakly oscillatory [1][17][24] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillatory and slightly bullish; Apple - oscillatory; Jujube - oscillatory [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs - short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - 02 contract for breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, grain - holding entities hedge on rallies; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually, cautious on chasing highs [1][29][36] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, macro policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors all play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Some sectors are expected to have short - term trading opportunities, while others require long - term observation due to uncertainties [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, but may oscillate in the short - term due to factors like policy changes, industrial profit decline, and exchange - rate concerns [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate as previous driving factors fade, and there is a lack of significant positive drivers for a new trend [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between clear bearish realities and weak marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: With a neutral static valuation and stable expectations, short - term range trading is advised [7] - **Glass**: Although the long - term supply - demand situation is deteriorating, there may be short - term trading opportunities around the New Year. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Reached a record high recently, but there is a risk of short - term correction. Long - term bullish, but hold positions cautiously and lightly during holidays [10] - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak, but due to macro factors, it has rebounded. Strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Expected to be in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Observe or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Driven by factors such as GDP growth and Fed policies, they are expected to oscillate. Hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak fundamentals, low valuation, and concerns about export sustainability, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Under the pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", it is recommended to observe temporarily [19] - **Styrene**: Short - term range oscillation, with the need to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long - term [19] - **Rubber**: Due to the divergence between cost support and weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in a range [21] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are both decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [22] - **Methanol**: With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory [24] - **Polyolefins**: In a situation of strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and PP is expected to oscillate in a range [24] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus as the main pressure, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand adjustments and policy expectations, they are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [26] - **Apple and Jujube**: The market is relatively stable, and they are expected to oscillate [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The price is oscillating at the bottom. Short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, and cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [29][30] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract [31][33] - **Corn**: Short - term sell pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand will gradually recover. Hedge on rallies in the short - term [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade in a range, bullish on dips for near - month contracts and bearish for far - month contracts [35] - **Oils**: Short - term stop - falling and rebound, close long positions gradually [36][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The pressure of new cotton concentrated listing has subsided, and spot sales are relatively smooth. The market focuses on the reduction of next year's planting area and the expectation of stable consumption. With a stable spot market, market purchasing willingness is strong, and prices remain strong [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market mainly follows cotton prices. However, due to intense competition in the industrial chain and the decline in exports, it is expected that there will be greater pressure later. As cotton prices strengthen, yarn prices will also remain strong, but the pattern of compressed yarn profits is difficult to change [69]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Trend Review: Zhengzhou Cotton Fluctuated Strongly in December - In December, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The core reasons were the smooth spot sales this year, with the sales progress significantly higher than in previous years, and the large expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Yarn mainly followed the cotton trend, but spinning profits were compressed. The continued large - scale expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity exerted great pressure on the inland [8]. 3.2. Supply - Side Analysis: New - Season Global Supply - Demand Balance 3.2.1. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2024/25 season was basically stable; the adjustment in the 2025/26 season was also limited, with production, consumption, and imports and exports all reduced by 60,000 tons, and the final ending inventory increased by 10,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, harvesting in most production areas was basically completed, and some started planting for the 2026/27 season. Therefore, the production adjustment shrank significantly, and consumption and import - export trade also declined slightly [14]. 3.2.2. US Cotton - In 2025/26, the US planting area was 56.427 million mu, and the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, with the abandonment rate remaining unchanged at 20.7%. The expected yield per unit was 69.4 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the expected production was adjusted up to 3.106 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The expected consumption was 348,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%; the expected export volume was flat month - on - month. Based on this, the ending inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 980,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3. US Cotton Contracted Exports and Shipments - As of December 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - contracted to export 1.445 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 54.39% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 605,000 tons of cotton, with a shipment rate of 41.88%. Among them, the contracted volume of upland cotton was 1.402 million tons, and 577,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 41.16%. The contracted volume of Pima cotton was 42,000 tons, and 28,000 tons were shipped, with a shipment rate of 65.85%. China had cumulatively contracted to import 64,000 tons of US cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 4.42% of the contracted US cotton volume; and had cumulatively shipped 23,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 3.77% of the total US cotton shipments and 35.68% of China's contracted volume [21]. 3.2.4. India - According to the CAI's November supply - demand balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the expected production was 5.262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons; the expected import was 850,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons. On the demand side, the expected consumption was 5.015 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons; the expected export was 306,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons. Based on this, India's ending cotton inventory increased to 1.821 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [24]. 3.2.5. Brazil - In 2025, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be adjusted up to 2.17 million hectares (32.55 million mu), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%; the expected yield per unit was adjusted up to 130.5 kg/mu, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; so the expected total production was adjusted up to 4.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. In 2026, Brazil's cotton planting area was expected to be 2.05 million hectares (30.75 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the expected yield per unit was 124.4 kg/mu, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; so the expected total production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, at the second - highest level in the past five years [25]. 3.2.6. China - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory remained stable at 6.16 million tons. In terms of production, although the yield per unit in southern Xinjiang decreased locally, the total production still increased due to the increase in area, and the national total production was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. In terms of imports, it was expected to remain unchanged at 1.2 million tons. According to the above situation, the annual total supply was adjusted up by 260,000 tons to 15.04 million tons. In terms of total demand, new orders from textile enterprises decreased slightly in November, but the market was "not in a slack season", the overall sales - to - production ratio and finished - product inventory remained stable, the operating rate remained at a relatively high level and was resilient, the cumulative cotton consumption in the new season increased year - on - year, and the annual textile cotton consumption was expected to be adjusted up by 130,000 tons to 8.21 million tons. The total demand increased by 130,000 tons to 8.58 million tons [30]. 3.2.7. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of November, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises showed a steady - to - increasing trend. As of the end of November, the in - stock cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. As of the end of November 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. As of December 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.3329 million tons, an increase of 44,500 tons year - on - year and an increase of 709,700 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.8. Imports of Cotton and Yarn in November - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (from 90,000 tons), an increase of 34.4%; a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (from 110,000 tons), an increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. From September to November 2025 (2025/26 season), the cumulative cotton import volume was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8%. In November 2025, China's yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons, an increase of about 25%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 7.14%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative yarn import volume was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [36]. 3.2.9. Supply - Side Summary - According to the latest USDA report, the global supply - demand remained in a balanced state, with overall production and consumption at an absolute high level and moderate inventory. The contradiction was not prominent. Domestically, although production increased, due to the tight industrial and commercial carry - over inventory and smooth sales, the overall inventory did not increase significantly year - on - year. Globally, attention should be paid to the reduction of planting areas in the US, Brazil, and China next year. Domestically, attention should be paid to the situation of structural supply tightness after the growth of Xinjiang's yarn production capacity and the adjustment of Xinjiang's cotton planting policy next year [38]. 3.3. Demand - Side Analysis: Strong Resilience in Downstream Demand 3.3.1. Strong Domestic Demand - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [43]. 3.3.2. Weakening External Demand Exports - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Among them, textile exports were 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03% and a month - on - month increase of 9.05%; clothing exports were 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a month - on - month increase of 5.36%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. Among them, textile exports were 130.009 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; clothing exports were 137.787 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [46]. 3.3.3. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.064 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 3.8 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of the textile industry was 2.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 600 million yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1.6 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.878 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 9 billion yuan; the finished - product inventory of textile and clothing was 1.008 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 billion yuan [48]. 3.3.4. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, the retail sales of clothing and apparel accessories in the US (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.65% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 25.356 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% (the previous month was upward - adjusted to 27.24 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 58.114 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35% (the same period last year was downward - adjusted to 58.321 billion US dollars) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% (the previous month was downward - adjusted to 58.161 billion US dollars). In August 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of clothing and apparel accessory retailers in the US (seasonally adjusted) was 2.13, a year - on - year decrease of 0.21 and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 [55]. 3.3.5. Load Changes - As of November 21, the load index of pure - cotton yarn mills was 64.3, a decrease of 0.14 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 48.3, the same as the previous week; the load of pure - polyester yarn was 59, the same as the previous week. The load of yarn and grey cloth showed signs of weakening [57]. 3.3.6. Industrial Chain Inventory - In terms of inventory, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.9 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous week; the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 28.26 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week; the inventory of all - cotton grey cloth was 31.48 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week. As it entered the consumption slack season, inventory began to accumulate [61]. 3.3.7. Demand - Side Summary - In terms of downstream demand, domestic demand was very stable and resilient. In terms of external demand exports, it began to weaken in the second half of the year. However, judging from the US consumption data, the recent data was acceptable, but there was a long delay, and further observation was needed. In the past two years, although cotton prices were sluggish, global consumption increased steadily, offsetting most of the production growth [66].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and taking profit and waiting for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Range trading for copper, tin, and gold; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting observation or short - selling on rallies for nickel; holding long positions for silver and being cautious on new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to be in a bullish consolidation [1][11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be in a bearish consolidation [1][15][17][22] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish consolidation for cotton and cotton yarn; range trading for apples and jujubes [1][23][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bottom - building consolidation for hogs; range trading for eggs; bearish consolidation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; rebound after a decline for oils and fats [1][27][30][32] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on comprehensive analysis of market fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It also emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as policy changes, cost fluctuations, and seasonal patterns when making investment decisions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Japan's large - scale budget increase and China's consumption promotion policies are factors. The market rotation is fast, and the stock indices may trade in a range, with a medium - to long - term bullish outlook [5] - **Government Bonds**: The previous driving factors are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors. The market may continue to trade in a range before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength relationship between assets [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between bearish reality and marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended, with range - right - side trading as the main strategy [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Short - term trading is the main approach [8] - **Glass**: There may be a short - term bullish opportunity around New Year's Day due to production line shutdowns and potential restocking. It is recommended to take profit and wait [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but high prices and year - end capital constraints suppress the upside. The price is in a high - level oscillation [11] - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak, but the macro - atmosphere is positive. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply situation in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [12] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - **Silver and Gold**: The increase in the US unemployment rate and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations drive the prices up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [13][14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine shutdowns, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation [14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [15] - **Caustic Soda**: The "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" situation suppresses the price. It is recommended to temporarily observe [16][17] - **Styrene**: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [17] - **Rubber**: The domestic production area is entering the off - season, and the overseas supply is high. The price may get short - term support, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Urea**: The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is mainly for reserve procurement. The inventory is in a slow - de - stocking state, and range trading is recommended [20] - **Methanol**: The supply in the inland area is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The inventory shows a differentiation between enterprises and ports, and range trading is recommended [21][22] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The PE contract is expected to be in a bearish consolidation, and the PP contract is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand is adjusted, and the new - cotton consumption is stable. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation [23] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The prices of apples and jujubes are in a range - trading state, with stable market conditions [25] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by capacity reduction. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautious about long positions for far - month contracts [27][28] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies [29][30] - **Corn**: The short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and the medium - to long - term demand is gradually released. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for short - term and be cautious about the upside [30][32] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is in a range oscillation. It is recommended to be bullish on the near - month 03 contract and bearish on the far - month 05 contract [32] - **Oils and Fats**: The three major oils and fats show signs of stopping the decline. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and be cautious about chasing the rise [33][40]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,940.95 | 0.53% | | 深圳成指 | 13,486.42 | 0.88% | | 沪深 300 | 4,634.06 | 0.29% | | 上证 50 | 3,025.18 | -0.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,352.04 | 1.31% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,344.10 | -0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 48,731.16 | 0.60% | | 标普 500 | 6,932.05 | 0.32% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,613.31 | 0.22% | | 美元指数 | 97.9542 | 0.05% | | 人民币 | 7.0161 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,505.40 | -0.21% | | WTI 原油 | 58.35 | -0.05% | | LME 铜 | 12,133.00 | 0.65% | | LME 铝 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass to sell on rallies [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper for range trading; Aluminum to strengthen observation; Nickel to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver to hold long positions, be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate to be in a strong - side oscillation [1][10][12] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC for range trading; Caustic soda to wait and see; Soda ash to wait and see; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][14][21] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn to be in a strong - side oscillation; PTA to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples to be in a weak - side oscillation; Jujubes to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][23][26] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs to short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts; Eggs to trade within a range; Corn to be cautious about chasing highs in the short - term, grain - holding entities to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal to be strong for near - term contracts and weak for far - term contracts; Oils to gradually close previous long positions, be cautious about chasing highs [1][28][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market situations, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and macro - economic conditions. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each product, guiding investors to make appropriate trading decisions. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by policies such as the central leadership's instructions on central enterprises and the real - estate policy in 2026, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent positive and negative meeting supports end, index futures may trade sideways. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: Affected by events like the establishment of the academic committee of the China Capital Market Society and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - end yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term interest rates may ease. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports. With high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak downstream demand, and potential domestic coal mine production cuts, it is recommended to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: After the price rose and then fell on Tuesday, the valuation is neutral. With the end of important meetings and a short - term policy vacuum, and considering factors such as export policies and supply - demand conditions, the price fluctuation range is limited, and short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: With 3 - 4 production lines expected to shut down at the end of the month and an optimistic policy atmosphere, the futures price may stop falling and rebound. However, due to weak demand and other factors, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The high - level negotiation results of copper concentrate TC/RC show a tight supply of copper concentrate. However, factors such as year - end capital tightness and high prices suppressing procurement limit the upside. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, and range trading is recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and some technical indicators are positive, the fundamentals are weak, with factors such as falling bauxite prices, increasing electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and weakening demand. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia and the price support from the Philippines are offset by factors such as the overall surplus of refined nickel and nickel iron. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [11] - **Tin**: With an increase in domestic production and imports, and a recovery in the semiconductor industry, but also a tight supply of tin concentrate, tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [12] - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the mid - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. Hold silver long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, range trading is recommended and be cautious about chasing highs [12][13] - **Lithium carbonate**: With a supply increase and strong downstream demand, and considering factors such as mine production cuts and inventory changes, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly [13] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: With high production, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost impacts, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Range trading is recommended [14] - **Caustic soda**: High inventory, potential alumina production cuts, and other factors suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to downstream procurement and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [15] - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as crude oil geopolitics, pure benzene supply - demand, and port inventory, styrene is expected to trade sideways. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change in the crude oil pricing center [16] - **Rubber**: With the end of the harvest season in Hainan, overseas supply pressure, and high inventory, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [16][17] - **Urea**: With a decrease in production due to increased maintenance, a slowdown in agricultural demand, and a partial increase in industrial demand, urea prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Methanol**: With an increase in production and a decline in the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate, and a differentiation in inventory between enterprises and ports, methanol prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [20] - **Polyolefins**: With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, PE is expected to oscillate weakly, and PP is expected to trade within a range. The LP spread is expected to narrow [21] - **Soda ash**: With stable spot transactions, an increase in production costs, and a potential easing of supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [23] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations for Xinjiang's planting area, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [23] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the rise in crude oil prices, and the supply - demand de - stocking situation, PTA prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the range of 4600 - 4900 [24][26] - **Apples and jujubes**: Apples' inventory market is stable but trading is light; jujubes' acquisition is nearing completion, and some prices are slightly loosening. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [26][27] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the balance between supply and demand, pig prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [28][29] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is expected to trade within a range. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is gradually easing, and in the long - term, the production capacity still needs time to clear. It is recommended that breeding enterprises hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long - term, although the demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand situation in 25/26 is relatively loose, limiting the upside [31][33] - **Soybean meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be strong, and far - term contracts are expected to be weak. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can price at low points [34][35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to gradually close previous long positions and be cautious about chasing highs [35][41]

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询 业务 资 格 ：鄂 证 监期 货 字 [2014]1 号 研究员 黄尚海 咨询电话：027- 65777089 从业编号：F0270997 投资咨询编号：Z0002826 苹果专题 产业服务总部 新年度苹果产量与出入库量分析 棉纺产业服务中心 2025-12-23 ◆ 报告要点 2025/26 年度，我国苹果由于天气原因，产量有所下降，品质较差，入 库量同比往年明显偏少。与此同时，今年由于柑橘价格较低影响，出库速度 也明显慢于往年。 风险点：宏观经济变化；天气因素；终端消费情况； 棉纺中心|苹果专题 2025/26 年度，我国苹果由于天气原因，产量有所下降，品质较差，入库量同比往年明显偏少。与此 同时，今年由于柑橘价格较低影响，出库速度也明显慢于往年。 一、2025-26 年度苹果市场特点 据中国果品流通协会专家杨杰总结，2025 年的苹果产季，遭受到前所未有的气候异常的影响，当前 我国苹果采收、收购、发运、入库、销售工作和往年同期大不相同，可以总结为以下 6 个特点： "少"。由于今年天气很不给力，加上果树老、果农老，品种老，效益不好，弃管很多，是今年苹 果果园产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]