Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction. The follow - up trend needs to closely monitor the change in trading volume. If the trading volume remains at the current relatively high level, the index is still expected to continue to expand upward after fully digesting floating chips; otherwise, if the volume significantly shrinks, short - term correction risk should be vigilant. The bond market sentiment has been frustrated, and the future sustainability of the rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large, and it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy [9][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Stock index trend review: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points. For the whole year, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 18.41% [9] - Core view: The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months and significantly higher than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December has strong certainty at the structural level but faces uncertainty at the aggregate level. The market's main line rotates rapidly, and stock index futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [9] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate [9] - Strategy outlook: Range - bound fluctuations [9] Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03% [11] - Core view: The composite PMI, manufacturing PMI, and non - manufacturing PMI are all above the boom - bust line of 50, and the bond market sentiment has been frustrated. The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations, and its future sustainability remains to be observed. In 2026, as the starting year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the pressure and necessity for stable growth are still relatively large. Whether it is the remaining fiscal resources at the end of the year or the room for monetary easing, it indicates that it is highly likely that policies will be implemented at the beginning of the year to support the economy. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw, whether the central bank's scale of treasury bond trading will further expand, and the implementation rhythm of monetary policies after the new year [11] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [11] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation [11] Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning above the boom - bust line after 8 months [18] - It was significantly stronger than the seasonal trend. In previous Decembers, the manufacturing PMI decreased by an average of 0.3 pct compared with November, while it increased by 0.9 pct this month [18] - The PMI of high - tech manufacturing industries rebounded significantly by 2.4 pct to 52.5%, indicating a good growth trend in the industry [18] - Large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement. Although the PMI of small enterprises declined, large and medium - sized enterprises' PMIs both rebounded significantly [18] CPI - In November, the year - on - year increase in CPI strengthened, and the month - on - month PPI remained positive, which was the result of the combined effects of seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution" [21] - It is worth noting that the year - on - year CPI has fluctuated below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and the year - on - year PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating that domestic demand is still relatively weak [21] - At the end of the year and during the Spring Festival, driven by seasonal effects and rising gold prices, the year - on - year CPI is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [21] - Since November 2024, the year - on - year base of PPI has entered a downward range again. Affected by low - base effects and the orderly progress of "anti - involution", the year - on - year PPI is also expected to rebound [21] Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $330.35 billion, imports were $218.67 billion, and the trade surplus was $111.68 billion [23] - In terms of representative export commodities, labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products drove the overall export in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01% respectively, with the driving rates increasing by 1.03 pp, 5.06 pp, and 1.55 pp respectively compared with the previous month [23] - The strengthening of exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America drove the year - on - year increase in exports this month, showing a relatively strong performance. Since November 9th, the year - on - year growth rates of global and US imports and China's container bookings to the US have continued to decline week by week, indicating a high probability of pressure on exports in December [24] Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service industry production index dropped to 4.2%. The production - end data has declined for two consecutive months [25] - There are two reasons for the weakening of industrial added value. First, "anti - involution" has begun to suppress the output of key industries. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the automobile industry dropped by 4.9 pct to 11.9%, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the steel industry dropped by 0.5 pct to 0.9%, and the chemical industry dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.7%. In terms of microscopic output, the year - on - year output of automobiles, ethylene, and steel also weakened. Second, after the policy took effect on September 24th last year, the production increase established a relatively high base. From the perspective of the two - year compound growth rate, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in November was basically the same as that in October [28] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped by 2.6%. It is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in November was - 11.1%, a slight increase compared with October [31] - By type, the year - on - year growth rate of private investment rebounded to - 12.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of public investment continued to drop to - 8.9% [31] - By expenditure direction, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rates of construction and installation projects/equipment and tool purchases in November dropped to - 16.1% and 6.3% respectively, and the year - on - year growth rate of other expenses rebounded slightly to - 13.8% [31] - By the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and real estate investment are still declining at a low level, but manufacturing investment has a slight rebound [31] Social Retail - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 1.3%, lower than market expectations and the weakest since 2023 [34] - There are three factors for the weakening of social retail sales in November. First, after the weakening of national subsidy funds, the weakening of durable - goods consumption is the main drag. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption dropped to - 10%, and among them, automobiles and home appliances cumulatively dragged down the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in that month by 1.2 pct. Second, the overall weak performance of the "Double Eleven" sales also dragged down the social retail sales for the whole month. In November, the online retail sales of physical goods dropped by 3.3 pct to 1.5%, and the two - year compound year - on - year growth rate turned negative for the first time this year. Third, the consumption in the post - real - estate cycle continued to be weak. Restricted by the long - term weak real - estate sales, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales of building materials and furniture both dropped and turned negative [34] Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags [37] - Bills continued to boost the volume, and the year - on - year increase in medium - and long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to be less than the previous year [37] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained flat at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber remained flat at 6.3% [37] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined. Attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization in the future [37]

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be moderately bullish [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish [1][17][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples are expected to be moderately bullish; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest short - term shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs suggest hedging on rallies for 02 contracts; corn suggests cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal suggests bullishness on dips for near - term contracts and bearishness for far - term contracts; oils suggest limited rebound and cautious chasing of highs [1][29][31] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the supply and demand, cost, policy and other factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis results. The market trends of different products are affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic policies, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [5][10][29] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The market mainline rotates rapidly, and the index may trade sideways. The follow - up trend depends on trading volume. If the volume remains high, the index may continue to rise; otherwise, it may face short - term correction risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous driving factors are fading, institutions are more cautious at the end of the year, and the market lacks significant driving factors. The market may continue to trade sideways before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. Short - term trading should be based on range - right - side trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price oscillates. In terms of valuation, it is neutral; in terms of driving factors, there is no incremental policy in the short term, and the steel export is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it is suitable for range trading [7] - **Glass**: At the end of the month, multiple production lines are expected to shut down, and the supply is expected to decrease, which may push up the price. Although the medium - long - term supply - demand is deteriorating, there are short - term speculation opportunities around New Year's Day. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but the current price is over - inflated, and the upward momentum is limited. It is expected to trade in a wide range at a high level. Pay attention to changes in spot discounts and inventory accumulation speed [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, but policy expectations are uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. Although the short - term price may be bullish, the upside space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to continue to trade in a moderately bullish range. Pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [15] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by liquidity and are expected to trade in a range. The central price in the medium term has moved up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to be supplemented by South American imports, and the demand is strong but the downstream production may decline. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level. Pay attention to macro data, policies, exports, inventory and upstream start - up rates [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation suppresses the price. The near - term contract may reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival, and the far - term contract's upward trend needs to be verified by supply contraction [19] - **Styrene**: The short - term rebound is due to factors such as rising oil prices, but the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the medium - long term [20][21] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, the cost support may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue to trade sideways [21] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the compound fertilizer demand is supporting. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a range [22] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. Both the mainland and ports are accumulating inventory [23] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient. The upward space is limited. It is expected to be weakly bullish, and pay attention to the support levels [23][24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong after supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and see [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are adjusted downward in the 2025/26 season, and the ending inventory increases slightly. The price is expected to be moderately bullish due to stable consumption and policy expectations [26] - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price rebounds due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress the upward space. The far - term price is cautiously bullish due to capacity reduction, but the industry cost is decreasing [29][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The medium - term supply pressure may be alleviated by large - scale culling, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. The medium - long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to trade in a range, be bullish on dips for near - term contracts and bearish for far - term contracts [34][35] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and gradually close long positions. The medium - long - term fundamentals have certain positive factors [35][41]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

长江期货贵金属周报 2025/12/29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 美国第三季度GDP超预期增长，流动性支撑，黄金价格 上涨。截至上周五，美黄金报收4562美元/盎司，周内 上涨4.4%，关注上方压力位4620，下方支撑位4500。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, prices are expected to be strong in the near - term due to de - stocking expectations and cost support, but the upside is limited. The 03 contract is likely to perform strongly, while the 05 contract may be weak under the background of South American bumper harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness will continue [7]. - In the oils market, in the short term, domestic three major oils have bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. In the long run, with the intensification of Malaysia's production cuts, India's pre - Ramadan stocking, the advancement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, and the implementation of the US biofuel policy in the first quarter of 2026, it will help the three major oils to bottom out and strengthen again [73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of December 26, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. Brazil's production is 175 million tons, while the US and Argentina's production decreases year - on - year. In China, the 2025/26 soybean import volume is expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. From December to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and soybeans and soybean meal will enter the de - stocking cycle. From April to September, domestic soybean arrivals will remain high at over 9 million tons [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - Current soybean meal demand remains high. Pig and poultry inventories are at a high level, and the good cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand. In the 51st week of 2025, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.2236 million tons, a decrease of 171,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.32%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.66% [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it will rise to 2760 yuan/ton. The domestic import cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of December 26, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 276 yuan/ton to 8568 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 124 yuan/ton to 7836 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 302 yuan/ton to 9046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also increased, and the basis of each oil showed different changes [74][76]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In Malaysia, from December 1 - 25, palm oil exports increased, and production decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation in December will be less than previously estimated, but it is still difficult to start de - stocking. In China, palm oil purchases from December to January are relatively small, and the market demand is average, limiting the de - stocking speed. As of the week of December 19, domestic palm oil inventory rebounded to 700,000 tons [74]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - In the US, although there are reports of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, the actual purchase volume announced by USDA is much lower. In South America, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The US soybean futures price is under pressure, but it is limited by the planting cost and potential bio - diesel policies. In China, soybean arrivals have decreased seasonally since October, and soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.1235 million tons as of the week of December 19 [74]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil market shows a state of strong current situation and weak future expectations. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are at a medium - level. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed is expected to be pressed in January 2026, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. As of the week of December 19, domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The destocking of polyolefins is insufficient, and there is significant upward pressure. The downstream has entered the off - season, with overall开工 declining. Although the cost of crude oil has rebounded slightly, the profit of oil - based olefins has been compressed. The supply pressure is large, and the destocking is insufficient. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with support at 6300, the PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with support at 6200, and the LP spread is expected to narrow [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic 3.1. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The average price of LDPE was 8466.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%. The average price of HDPE was 6800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6480.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 15.56 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 94.54%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28) [12]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 76 yuan/ton (- 28), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 31 yuan/ton (+16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 107 yuan/ton (+12) [17]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes of various plastic products in different regions [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 389 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09%. The maintenance loss this week was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 493 tons of production capacity has been put into operation or is about to be put into operation [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have HDPE, LDPE and other device maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 43.86%, a decrease of 1.32% from last week. The start - up rate of PE packaging films was 48.22%, a decrease of 0.74% from last weekend. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.67%, a decrease of 0.33% from last weekend [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 36.2%, with a difference of 0.6% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 7.7%, with a difference of 0.9% from the annual average level [39]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.15 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.60% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11265 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from last week [46]. PP 3.3. Weekly Market Review - On December 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6292 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% [50]. 3.4. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The report provides the prices and price changes of PP - related products and some downstream products [52][54]. - **Basis**: On December 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6153.33 yuan/ton (- 1.60%). The PP basis closed at - 139 yuan/ton (- 179), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33) [56]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 26 was - 114 yuan/ton (- 33), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+2), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (+31) [61]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.93 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.03 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.37 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66 US dollars/barrel from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.41 yuan/ton from last weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44 yuan/ton from last weekend [71]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [74]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises have PP production line maintenance, and some of the start - up times are uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 53.24% (- 0.56). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.26%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.36% (- 0.14%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.73% (- 2.34%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 318.03 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The export profit was - 1.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.33 tons (- 0.84%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 1.02% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.60% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 1.78% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14905 lots, an increase of 3971 lots from last week [95].

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Breeding Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020750 [1] Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Pig - In the short term, supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. Egg - Currently, supply is sufficient, and prices are under pressure. In the medium to long term, supply pressure remains, but there is support at the bottom. The market will experience a grinding process, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. Corn - In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be released, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. In the medium to long term, there is strong cost support, but the supply-demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upside [7][105]. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Breeding View Summary Pig - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the national spot price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.82 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,645 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of contract 03 was 175 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price fluctuated narrowly, first falling and then rising [5][58]. - **Supply End**: In September, the official inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly. In October, capacity reduction accelerated under policy regulation and profit losses, but it was still above the normal level of 39 million. With improved production performance, supply will remain high before the first half of next year and decrease marginally after August. Supply pressure is still high from December to the first quarter of next year. The planned pig出栏 of large-scale enterprises in December increased month-on-month. Retailers and second fattening showed stronger reluctance to sell, and the proportion of large pig出栏 decreased. The average出栏 weight stagnated and declined [5][58]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased after the Winter Solstice but rebounded later due to the basic demand in the twelfth lunar month. Terminal consumption was lower than expected, and the fresh sales rate decreased. Slaughterhouses actively digested frozen inventories, but the frozen product sales were average, and the frozen product inventory rate decreased slightly. With the support of New Year's Day and Spring Festival stocking demand, the decline in slaughter volume was limited or gradually increased. However, the high frozen product inventory limited the positive support, and future frozen product outflows would put pressure on supply [5][58]. - **Cost End**: The piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self-breeding and self-raising profit loss narrowed, and the cost of self-breeding and self-raising fattening pigs for 5 months increased slightly compared to last week. The national pig-grain ratio reached the warning level, and the state mainly carried out rotation storage. Attention should be paid to national policies [5][58]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The main contract is undervalued and rebounds under the push of supply-demand mismatch and macro funds, but the rebound is under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation. Wait for the off-season contract to rebound and then go short. For the far-month contract, although capacity is reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level, and costs are decreasing. Be cautious about bullish views. Before effective capacity reduction, the industry can hedge at high profits and operate in a rolling manner [5][58]. Egg - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2602 was 2,957 yuan/500 kg, up 71 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was -137 yuan/500 kg, down 51 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price fluctuated at a low level. As New Year's Day approached, the enthusiasm for purchasing low-priced goods increased, but caution was exercised towards high-priced goods [6][84]. - **Supply End**: The newly laid hens in December correspond to the replenishment in July 2025, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, at the historical average level. The current spot price is still weak, driving the elimination of old hens, and the supply pressure is marginally reduced. However, the inventory base is still large, and the market supply pattern remains sufficient, which will still put pressure on egg prices in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the deterioration of breeding profits, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has continued to decline. The replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and it will still take time to clear the production capacity. Overall, the medium to long-term supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - **Demand End**: The New Year's Day stocking is approaching the end, and the procurement demand from channels has declined. However, the current egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further decline will easily stimulate the increase in channel inventory demand. In terms of substitutes, the pork price has been under long-term pressure, and the vegetable price has remained high. The high cost performance of eggs drives the improvement of terminal substitution demand, which supports the egg price [6][84]. - **Weekly Summary**: Currently, the sufficient supply puts pressure on the spot price, driving the high enthusiasm for eliminating old hens. Coupled with the small number of newly laid hens, the supply pressure is marginally reduced. At the same time, the egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is still support from the Spring Festival demand. Coupled with the high vegetable price, there is support at the bottom of the egg price. Overall, the short-term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price fluctuates at a low level. In the medium to long term, the replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and the medium to long-term supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The current 02 contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a historical low. Breeding enterprises should wait for the price to rebound and then hedge at high prices. In the medium term, the replenishment of chicks has declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the pressure of newly laid hens is not large. If a large number of hens are eliminated around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the supply pressure after the festival. In the long term, it will still take time to clear the production capacity, and the supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to external environmental protection policies, epidemics, and other passive capacity reduction factors [6][84]. Corn - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the corn flat price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 78 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price adjusted narrowly, and the purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and channel levels still existed, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory building enthusiasm and grain sales rhythm. The main contract 03 rebounded significantly in the second half of the week, currently at a discount to the spot, and the basis was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7][105]. - **Supply End**: The national grass-roots grain sales rate was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year. The grain sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported policy grains had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and drying tower levels still existed, and the market supply slowed down. As the grain sales progress in North China was slower than the same period last year, there were not many trucks arriving at the deep processing plants. There may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, which is expected to relieve the short-term tight pattern. In November, the corn import volume was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56% and a year-on-year increase of 86.7%. The import of sorghum increased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year, and the import of barley decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year. The import of international grains remained at a low level but increased year-on-year. As of December 19, the inventories at the northern and southern ports were 1.88 million tons and 502,000 tons respectively, a month-on-month increase of 70,000 tons and 49,000 tons. As of December 26, the average number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep processing enterprises in the morning was 495, a week-on-week decrease of 199 [7][105]. - **Demand End**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of sows increased, and there was a slight reduction from December to January 2025. With improved performance, the inventory of pigs this year has shown an increasing trend, and the inventory of poultry has also remained at a high level. The high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. Recently, the corn price has rebounded significantly, and the price difference between corn and wheat has narrowed. If it continues to rise, the feed use cost performance of wheat will reappear, and feed enterprises may increase the purchase of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. In terms of deep processing, as the raw material price rebounds, the processing profit has narrowed significantly. The operating rate has rebounded but is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory is at a high level, limiting the increase in deep processing demand [7][105]. - **Weekly Summary**: The purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported corn had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders still existed, but the downstream was cautious about high-price purchases and mainly carried out rolling inventory replenishment. Currently, the national grain sales rate is 45%, and there may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, increasing market supply and relieving the tight pattern. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm. In the medium to long term, the planting cost of corn in the 2025/2026 season has decreased, and the weather during the growing period is suitable, so a bumper harvest is expected. However, the carry-over inventory of the old crop is low, and the import is expected to increase year-on-year but is at a low level, driving the enhancement of cost support. In terms of demand, the inventory of pigs and poultry is slowly decreasing, the feed demand is rigid, the deep processing profit is at a relatively low level in history, the finished product sales are not smooth, and the inventory is at a high level. The increase in corn processing demand is limited. Overall, the demand for new-season corn is stable and weak, limiting the upside space of corn. In general, in the short term, the high market price drives the increase in shipping enthusiasm, and it is expected that there is still selling pressure to be released. Attention should be paid to the new grain listing rhythm and channel inventory building. In the medium to long term, the old crop inventory is not much, the import remains at a low level, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, putting pressure on the upside space [7][105]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the spot price, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. Grain holders can hedge at high prices when the price rebounds. In the medium to long term, the demand is gradually released, and there is strong support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, limiting the increase [7][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating widely in the range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton. The increase in urea maintenance devices has led to a decrease in daily output and a reduction in supply. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, mainly for reserve procurement, while the increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. The port inventory has started to accumulate again, but the accumulation rate is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices rose. On December 26, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.24% increase. The highest price during the period was 1743 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1694 yuan/ton. The average daily price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1693 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.01% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On December 26, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 42 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 47) - (- 24) yuan/ton [3][6]. - The increase of the urea 05 contract was relatively large, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On December 26, the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 68) - (- 49) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 81.6%, 1.09 percentage points lower than last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 56.27%, 1.53 percentage points lower than last week. The average daily urea output was 19.05 tons. Some devices in Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Anhui, Henan, Hubei, etc. resumed production, and the daily output first decreased and then increased [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market had average trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 25, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was 850 - 920 yuan/ton, with the closing price center 20 yuan/ton lower than the same period last week [3][13]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the increase in urea prices, the production profit of urea recovered slightly [13]. Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 98.4%. In terms of agricultural demand, most purchases were for reserves. In terms of industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer production capacity increased slightly, the operating load rate of melamine decreased, and overall production and sales were relatively stable [17][18]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.75%, 1.62 percentage points lower than last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.2 tons, an increase of 0.66 tons from last week. Winter storage was proceeding as planned, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production flexibly. The production and sales in Northeast China were fair [22]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 59.47%, 1.3 percentage points lower than last week, with a weekly output of 3.068 tons. Some devices of several enterprises had temporary shutdowns or maintenance, while some others resumed normal production. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support for the panel market strengthened [26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 88.3 tons, a decrease of 9.6 tons from last week. Urea port inventory was 29.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, equivalent to 21.5 tons, a decrease of 226 receipts (equivalent to 0.452 tons) from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Concern - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]