Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market's recent rise is driven by long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies benefiting upstream cycle sectors, and short - term capital inflows due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit - loan data. Wait for clearer policy and market trends before adjusting positions [2]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong as the market - driving effect of anti - involution policy expectations since July is over, and the bond market is likely to have a repair market [3]. - Gold is in a window supported by both "rising interest - rate cut expectations" and "geopolitical uncertainties" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. For silver, low - buying and holding is a good strategy [4]. - Most commodities in the steel, coal, and coke sectors are expected to move in a narrow or wide - range oscillation in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy expectations, and cost changes [6][7][9]. - Copper prices may be weak but the expected peak season in September will limit the decline. Nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by market sentiment and will oscillate. Aluminum - related products' prices face downward pressure due to supply increases, while industrial silicon and polysilicon have different trends and investment opportunities [14][15][19]. - Oil prices are under pressure. High and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Asphalt is supported by low supply and inventory but is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, polyolefins, PVC, urea, soda ash, and glass all have their own supply - demand characteristics and are expected to have different short - term price trends [24][25][27]. - Protein meal prices are rising, and a long - position strategy is recommended. Most oils are strong, and a long - position strategy is also suggested. Livestock and poultry products such as pigs and eggs have complex supply - demand situations and are expected to oscillate. Corn has a short - term rebound but a mid - term weakening trend [39][41][42]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak trend. Cotton's 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the medium - long term [46][49]. 3. Summary by Category Financials - **Stock Index**: A - share market was flat yesterday. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is significant. The stock market's rise is driven by multiple factors. Wait for clearer trends before adjusting positions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rose slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. Gold is supported by multiple factors, and silver can be held through low - buying [4]. Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke - **Rebar**: Futures prices were slightly down. Production increased, inventory rose, and demand improved slightly. Exports remained high. It is expected to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fell. Supply decreased, demand was mixed, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected by inspections, and demand was strong. It is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices rose. Supply was affected，and demand was good. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both futures prices weakened. They are affected by policies, cost, and supply - demand factors and are expected to oscillate widely [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices were slightly down. Affected by macro factors, inventory changes, and weak demand, copper prices may be weak but limited by the peak - season expectation [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices fell slightly. Affected by inventory, price differentials, and supply - demand, they are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Aluminum - related Products**: Prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy were weak. Supply is expected to increase, and prices face downward pressure [16][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was strong, and polysilicon was weak. There are different investment opportunities [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices rose. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is changing. The market focuses on production uncertainties [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell for six consecutive days. Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand, oil prices are under pressure [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply may decrease, demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Rubber**: Futures prices rose. Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Prices of related products rose slightly. Affected by cost and demand, PTA may be under pressure, and MEG may adjust weakly [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate as inventory is expected to increase slightly in August with limited import and stable demand [31]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will recover in August, and the upside is limited without significant cost increases [32]. - **PVC**: Market pressure eases, inventory decreases slowly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [33][34]. - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the Indian tender can relieve some pressure. It is expected to oscillate widely and weakly [35]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply increased, demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate widely with a weak sentiment [36]. - **Glass**: Futures prices oscillated widely. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to oscillate widely [37]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Prices rose. U.S. soybeans had strong sales, and domestic prices were boosted by external and cost factors. A long - position strategy is recommended [39]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. A long - position strategy is suggested [40][41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and policy factors. Egg prices have a complex situation with a possible seasonal rebound but a short - term bearish sentiment [42][43]. - **Corn**: Futures prices rebounded technically, but the mid - term is expected to be weak [44]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: Prices are expected to continue to be weak due to production increase expectations and domestic price adjustments [46]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fell. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [47][49].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 5.36% to 72,300 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 65,490 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,420 tons to 16,443 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with a large increase in lithium extraction from lithium mica, followed by lithium extraction from spodumene and salt lakes. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. On the inventory side, the social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with inventory reduction in the upstream and other links and inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. - After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipt inventory, there is a certain reflux, but the current total remains at a low level. The short - term market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiaxiaowo will stop production [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,000 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,550 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 65,490 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 70,610 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 60,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8.05 US dollars/kg, down 0.1 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 52,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [5]. - **Spreads**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,610 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 8,057.28 yuan/ton, down 766 yuan [5]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as manganese acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells & Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing the price difference trends of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Production Costs**: There are charts showing the profit trends of lithium carbonate production from various raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [38][39].

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，09合约收盘价1737元/吨，跌幅1.36%。01合约收盘价 | 震荡 | | | 1757元/吨，跌幅0.96%。现货市场偏弱运行，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1780 | | | | 元/吨、1790元/吨，日环比分别跌10元/吨、持平。基本面来看，昨日尿素行业日产 | | | | 量19.40万吨，日环比增0.19万吨。需求端跟进情绪仍有放缓，昨日主流地区产销率 | | | | 仍维持低位徘徊，高成交地区产销也不足60%。印标方面，印度本轮招标最终采购 | | | | 量199.88万吨，符合采购计划但较初步确认量有所减少，中国在配额内可供印度20- | | | | 30万吨数量，利于缓 国内供需压力。整体来看，印标及出口政策落地后市场新增 | | | | 驱动不足，国内基本面支撑力度有限。短期期货盘面仍以宽幅震荡趋势为主，短期 | | | | 偏弱。后续关注出口订单兑现情况、现货成交氛围。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Weakly bearish [2] - Asphalt: Sideways [2] - Polyester: Weakly bearish [4] - Rubber: Sideways [4] - Methanol: Sideways [6] - Polyolefins: Sideways [6] - Polyvinyl chloride: Weakly bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices have been declining for six consecutive days. The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with weak fundamentals, keep oil prices under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil supply remains sufficient in August, demand may weaken, and the overall fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory in the short term, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester prices are under pressure due to the further decline in oil prices at the cost end, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a sideways trend with inventory accumulation in August but a relatively low overall inventory level [6]. - The supply and demand of polyolefins will recover in August, with limited upside space in the absence of a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - The fundamental pressure of PVC has eased in August, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, WTI September contract closed at $63.88/barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%; Brent October contract closed at $66.43/barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69%; SC2509 closed at 497.1 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan or 1.43%. US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 310 barrels per day. The market is concerned about the US - Russia leaders' meeting, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains uncertain. Fundamentally, oil prices lack support and are under pressure [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2509 rose 0.6% to 2835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2510 rose 0.31% to 3550 yuan/ton. As of August 6, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 165.1 barrels (6.69%) week - on - week, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory increased by 172 barrels (21.67%) week - on - week. In August, supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and the fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2509 rose 0.17% to 3529 yuan/ton. In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, supply is expected to decrease, and demand in the south is expected to improve. The short - term asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.9%; EG2509 closed at 4414 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the downstream demand has resilience. Ethylene glycol supply has recovered well, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2509 rose 30 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton. The weather in rubber - producing areas is good, downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - **Methanol**: In August, inventory accumulation is expected, but the increase in imports is not large, and the overall inventory level is relatively low. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a sideways trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, both supply and demand will recover, inventory will gradually shift from society to downstream, and the upside space is limited without a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: In August, the fundamental pressure of PVC has eased, inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on August 8, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics, supply and demand, and is concerned about US President Trump's recent remarks. He expects oil prices to be below $72 per barrel. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that Kuwait's quota production is 2.548 million barrels per day [9]. - US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years due to insufficient domestic supply, which increased the price of WTI futures relative to Brent crude and damaged overseas demand [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products are provided, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [39][41][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products are shown, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [56][59][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products are presented, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65][67][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [70][71][72]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - On August 7th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.46%, and the position increasing by 15,654 lots to 224,000 lots. Polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.8%, and the position decreasing by 2,072 lots to 136,000 lots. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focus has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon production capacity and the resumption of production in Southwest China of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in Southwest China will be the marginal driving factor [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoint - Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly on August 7th, and polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The policy expectation of polysilicon has peaked, and the market focuses on supply pressure and weak demand. Continuously track the short SI and long PS opportunity, and industrial silicon is affected by the resumption of production in Southwest China and electricity price subsidies [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price increased slightly, and most spot prices remained stable. The current lowest delivery product price was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 105, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 4,030. The factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1,100, and the social inventory decreased by 1,100 [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract's futures settlement price decreased, and some spot prices increased. The current lowest delivery product price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount decreased to 5,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 60, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: Most of the DMC and other organic silicon spot prices remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Include charts of various industrial silicon brand prices, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Include charts of DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [13][16] 3.3 Inventory - Include charts of industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Include charts of the average cost level and average profit level of main producing areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][27][31] 4. Non - core Content (Team Introduction) - The non - core content includes the introduction of the non - ferrous metals team, including the background and achievements of members such as Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi [32][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has risen recently due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution policies and infrastructure investment, and short - term capital inflows and improved enterprise deposit and loan data. The bond market is expected to show a repair trend. Precious metals are supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty". Most commodities are expected to show a wide - range or weak - range oscillation trend [2][3][4] - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical events, and their price trends vary. For example, steel products are affected by production, inventory, and policy expectations; copper is affected by tariffs and inventory; and energy products are affected by supply, demand, and price adjustments [6][15][23] Summary by Category Financials Stock Index - The A - share market rose yesterday with the Wind All - A up 0.72% and a turnover of 1.76 trillion yuan. The rise is attributed to long - term, mid - term, and short - term logics. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [2] - The treasury bond futures showed different trends. The short - term bond market is expected to repair, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell overnight. Gold is in a window supported by "interest rate cut expectation" and "geopolitical uncertainty" and is expected to maintain a strong trend. Low - buying and holding silver is a good strategy [4] Mineral, Steel, Coal, and Coke Rebar - The rebar futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand pressure increased, but policy expectations and rumors boosted market sentiment. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price fell. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rose. The supply is affected by inspections, and the demand is strong. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [9] Coke - The coke futures rose. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [10] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures strengthened. Market news boosted confidence, and the demand increased. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [11][12] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures strengthened. Cost support is strong, and the fundamentals have little contradiction. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices rose slightly. The macro situation is complex, and the demand is insufficient. The price may be weak, but the "Golden September" expectation restricts the decline [15][16] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were affected by market sentiment. The fundamentals changed little, and the short - term is expected to oscillate [17] Alumina, Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloy - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices rose. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may face downward pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices rose. Pay attention to the policy implementation and the opportunity of shorting SI and longing PS [20] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to increase. The short - term focus is on production uncertainties [21] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. The market is affected by sanctions and price adjustments. The price is under upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [23] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand may weaken. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [24] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term is expected to oscillate [25][26] Rubber - Rubber prices showed different trends. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [27] PX, PTA, and MEG - PX, PTA, and MEG prices rose. The cost is under pressure, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price trends vary [28][29] Methanol - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the increase is not significant [30] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are affected by supply and demand and cost. The short - term upward space is limited [31] Polyvinyl Chloride - PVC prices showed different trends. The fundamentals improved slightly. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [32][33] Urea - Urea prices strengthened. The supply increased, and the demand slowed down. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices showed different trends. The supply and demand are stable. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [35] Glass - Glass prices were weak. The supply was stable, and the demand declined. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely [36][37] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell, while domestic protein meal prices rose. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to peak. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal and participate in positive spreads [39] Oils - BMD palm oil fell, while domestic oils were strong. The supply and demand data will be released, and the strategy is to go long and sell put options [40] Live Pigs - Live pig futures rose, and the spot price fell. The supply pressure and policy support coexist. The short - term is expected to oscillate [41][42] Eggs - Egg futures rose, and the spot price fell. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, but there is a possibility of seasonal rebound [43] Corn - Corn futures rebounded, and the spot price was weak. The short - term is expected to face resistance, and the medium - term is expected to be weak [44] Soft Commodities Sugar - The domestic sugar sales data is good, but the spot price is down. The external market is weak. The domestic market is expected to be weak [46] Cotton - ICE cotton fell, while domestic cotton rose slightly. The international market focuses on macro factors, and the domestic market is supported by inventory. The 01 contract is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [47]