Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a state of oscillation. ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton. The macro - level is the main focus in the international market, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, but the supply - demand of US cotton in the new year is relatively loose. In the domestic market, the macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space but needs additional factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - The view on sugar is also oscillation. As of the end of July, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was generally weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and the reverse arbitrage can stop profit - taking. Wait for the guidance of raw sugar and the trading opportunity of the January contract's oversold rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton, and the main contract's position decreased by 11,604 hands to 292,400 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,169 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut probability is high, but US cotton supply - demand is loose. The domestic macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space and needs extra factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the end of July, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year, and the sales rate was 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. In July, the single - month sales volume was 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons. Spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and wait for raw sugar guidance and the January contract's trading opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 165, a decrease of 35; the main basis was 1514, an increase of 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,081 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan per ton, and the national spot price was 15,169 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 70, a decrease of 25 [3]. 3. Market Information - On August 5th, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,563, a decrease of 121 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 348 [4]. - On August 5th, the cotton arrival prices in Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were 15,081 yuan per ton, 15,184 yuan per ton, 15,135 yuan per ton, and 15,225 yuan per ton respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.4, an increase of 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.9, an increase of 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.7, a decrease of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,030 yuan per ton (unchanged) and 6,035 yuan per ton (a decrease of 20 yuan per ton) respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 19,260, a decrease of 113 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore basis and spreads, including futures contract prices, spreads between different contracts, basis data of various iron ore varieties, and spreads between different iron ore varieties [3][6][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - Futures contract prices: I05 closed at 754.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan; I01 closed at 778.0 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan [3] - Contract spreads: The spread between I05 - I09 was -44.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan; I01 - I05 was 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.2 Basis Data - Price changes: The prices of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the price of卡拉拉精粉 rising by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the prices of河钢精粉,鞍钢精粉,本钢精粉,太钢精粉, and马钢精粉 remaining unchanged [6] - Basis changes: The basis of most varieties decreased, with the basis of河钢精粉,鞍钢精粉,本钢精粉,太钢精粉, and马钢精粉 decreasing significantly [6] 3.3 Variety Spreads - Spread changes: The spread between PB块 - PB粉 was 146.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB粉 - 混合粉 was 78.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; PB粉 - 超特粉 was 128.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [13] 3.4 Exchange Rule Adjustments - Newly added deliverable varieties: 4 varieties including本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, and乌克兰精粉 were added, and 4 varieties including太钢精粉,马钢精粉,五矿标准粉, and SP10粉 were also added [11] - Brand premium adjustments: Only PB粉, BRBF, and卡拉加斯粉 have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [11] - Quality difference and premium adjustments: The allowable range of iron grade indicators was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices may be weak due to factors such as the US economic stagflation expectation, Trump's deadline for Russia, and the results of China - US negotiations. However, the expectation of the "Golden September" peak season will limit the decline [1]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state due to increased supply expectations, while electrolytic aluminum may face downward pressure on its price center due to increased production and inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy is expected to repair the price difference in the peak season [2]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term and show a volatile trend, with support from the price of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell 0.76% to $9634.5/ton, and SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 78070 yuan/ton. The US July ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, triggering stagflation expectations. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, Comex copper increased by 916 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons. Terminal orders slowed down during the off - season, and the market may be weak in early August, but the "Golden September" expectation will limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak and volatile, with AO2509 closing at 3207 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline.沪铝 was strong and volatile, with AL2509 closing at 20525 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is rising, with potential inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy may shift from the off - season to the peak - season price difference repair in 2511 [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.33% to $15055/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 120500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. Nickel ore prices declined slightly, and stainless - steel raw material prices were divided. In the short term, prices are affected by market sentiment and show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and LME inventory decreased by 1250 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2300 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons. The alumina inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 795 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 130 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 4725 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged, and the SMM spot price increased by 1200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 254 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 有色金属 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices fell from their highs. The market's focus is on the uncertainty of whether the Jianxiaowo mine will shut down. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipts, there is a certain amount of re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [4] - On the supply side, the weekly production continued to slow down, with a weekly decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory saw its first destocking since the end of May last week, but there is still about 142,000 tons [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 2.65% to 67,680 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, there was a concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts yesterday, and the inventory increased by 1,840 tons to 14,443 tons [4] - In terms of news, on August 5th, according to Cailian Press, the Australian Resources Minister said that Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects; Xinyu High - tech Ecological Environment Bureau released the "Pre - approval Publicity of the Annual Expansion Project of 30,000 Tons of High - Purity Lithium Salt in Zhongkuang Resources (002738) (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd."; Core's restart research shows that it can reduce costs and increase production, and it also terminated the off - take agreement with Yahua [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,080 yuan/ton to 67,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton. Among lithium ores, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,710 yuan/ton, while the price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 5,275 yuan/ton [5][6] - For lithium salts, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton [6] - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 70 yuan/ton to - 5,660 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18] - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][26] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [33][36] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [37][38] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [41] - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [42] - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to be volatile and weak. On Tuesday, corn's weighted contract positions increased, and the September contract gap - down led to an accelerated price decline. Spot trading weakened. With the approaching new - grain listing, the September positions are shifting to the November and January contracts, and the January contract continues to be weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to demand concerns. Domestically, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices rose. Although domestic supply is still abundant and inventories are rising, the market expects the inventory peak to decline and the basis to gradually return. A long - position strategy is recommended for soybean meal, and positive spreads for 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday, supported by bargain - hunting and improved export expectations. Domestically, the three major oils are running strongly. A long - position strategy is recommended, along with selling put options [2]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile and weak. The main 2509 egg contract continued to decline on Tuesday, with a narrowing decline. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic [2]. - Hogs are expected to be in a range - bound state. The main 2509 hog contract fluctuated and adjusted on Tuesday. Currently, the supply side exerts pressure on hog prices, while policies provide support. Attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The futures price is falling, and the spot trading is weak. The price in North China is generally stable, and the price in the sales area is falling. Technically, the September contract has fallen below 2300 yuan, and the January contract is weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell due to demand concerns. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, with sufficient supply and rising inventories, but the market expects the inventory peak to decline [2]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, while US soybean oil and Canadian canola fell. Domestically, the three major oils are strong, supported by a warm market atmosphere and slow procurement in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Eggs**: The main contract continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. The spot price is mostly stable in the production area and mostly falling in the sales area. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Hogs**: The main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price is slightly adjusted, with sufficient supply and mediocre terminal demand. Policies support hog prices, and attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. Market Information - As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared with 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year [3]. - US private exporters reported selling 128,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 sales year [3]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with a year - on - year change of 13.02%. The average sales price was 14.30 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year change of - 21.86%. The sales revenue was 11.639 billion yuan, with a year - on - year change of - 10.41% [4]. - EU officials stated that the 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US is all - inclusive, including the most - favored - nation tariff [4]. - Malaysia plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to speed up the national replanting process [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections have boosted market sentiment [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term, with a decline in global shipments and a decrease in iron - making water production [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. The over - production inspection of coal mines affects the supply side, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, with stable demand [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. Market news has a certain impact on market sentiment, but has not yet affected supply and demand [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The price of rebar futures rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3233 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. Spot prices also increased. The issuance of new local government special bonds accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections boosted sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 rose to 798.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Global shipments decreased, iron - making water production declined, and port inventories decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, up 2.93%. The over - production inspection of coal mines affected the supply side, and coke enterprises still had certain restocking needs. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1634.5 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. After the fifth price increase of coke, the profit of coke enterprises was further repaired, and demand was stable. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6018 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. Market news had a certain impact on sentiment, but "anti - involution" had not affected supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating with support at the bottom [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5716 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The cost increased, and supply continued to rise. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, down 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 127.0, down 9.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various varieties increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit increased. Cross - variety spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio also changed [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [19][20][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [27][29][31]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trend charts of cross - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It provides profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise [54][55].

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 6 日） 工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 5 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8450 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.02%，持 仓减仓 24386 手至 15.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9440 元/吨，较 上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回落至 8800 元/吨，现货升水 收至 310 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 50330 元/吨，日内 涨幅 3.88%，持仓增仓 20838 手至 12.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格跌至 44500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现货贴水 扩至 4325 元/吨。多晶硅政策预期见顶、估值出现瓶颈，市场关注转向 产业供应压力和需求弱态结构，现货锚定成本定价，期货中枢跟随高 品仓单溢价，产能整合动态消息给予盘面阶段升水。在多晶硅产能集 中整合和工业硅西南复产节奏中，持续跟踪空 SI 多 PS 机会。工业硅将 以电价补贴取消后成本为基准，西南复产成为边际驱动项。重点关注 政策落地情况，警惕产能收储或电价改革延迟，多头情绪下的退潮踩 踏风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

Group 1: Research Views - The implementation of the Childcare Subsidy System nationwide is expected to be an important path to stabilize and boost China's inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions. The outlook for the stock index is "volatile", and for treasury bonds is "bullish" [1] - On August 6, 2025, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 28.85 billion yuan. Short - term treasury bonds are expected to run strongly [1][2] Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, IH rose 20.6 points (0.74%), IF rose 29.2 points (0.72%), IC rose 29.6 points (0.48%), and IM rose 39.4 points (0.59%) [3] Stock Indexes - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 21.3 points (0.77%), the CSI 300 rose 32.7 points (0.80%), the CSI 500 rose 41.5 points (0.66%), and the CSI 1000 rose 47.8 points (0.71%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF rose 0.04 points (0.04%), T rose 0.07 points (0.06%), and TL rose 0.13 points (0.11%) [3] Group 3: Market News - The Passenger Car Association slightly raised its annual forecast for 2025. It predicts 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% increase, and 5.46 million passenger car exports, a 14% increase [4] Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - Charts show the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, IC, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][9] Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the historical price trends of treasury bond futures, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][14][16] Exchange Rates - Charts present the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - RMB exchange rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [19][20][23]

Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil continued to decline. The September contract of WTI closed down $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7%. The October contract of Brent closed down $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a decrease of 1.63%. The SC2509 closed at 502.5 yuan per barrel, down 6.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels [1]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March [1]. - Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day. India started to purchase oil from the US and Canada. It is reported that Indian Oil Corporation bought crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East through tender, scheduled to arrive in September [1]. - The market's concern about oversupply is significant, and the price center of oil continues to decline. The view is "volatile and weak" [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan per ton [1]. - In August, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil remains sufficient, and demand may show signs of weakening. The fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. The view is "volatile and weak" [1][3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.58% at 3,544 yuan per ton [3]. - In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, and asphalt supply is expected to decrease. Refinery inventories are generally controllable, and North China's main refineries may continue low - production in the short term to deliver previous contracts, with limited supply growth. In the southern market, rainfall has decreased, demand is expected to improve, and terminal construction after the rainy season has positive support. The demand for modified asphalt in Shandong's highway projects has been released intensively, driving an increase in terminal capacity utilization [3]. - In the short term, the asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and spot prices are relatively firm. The risk lies in the fluctuation of crude oil prices at the cost end. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes. The view is "volatile" [3]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,682 yuan per ton yesterday, down 0.34%; the spot offer was at a discount of 13 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,399 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.23%, with the basis increasing by 3 yuan per ton to 83 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,463 yuan per ton. The main PX futures contract 509 closed at 6,734 yuan per ton, down 0.3%. The spot negotiation price was $839 per ton, equivalent to 6,901 yuan per ton in RMB, and the basis widened by 58 yuan per ton to 179 yuan per ton [3]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally light, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is preparing to restart, and its 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to shut down for maintenance soon. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia shut down due to an accident recently, with an initial estimated shutdown time of about one week [3]. - OPEC+ continues to over - produce, the cost - end oil price is further pressured, downstream demand has resilience support, and the terminal operating load is at a low level in the off - season. TA prices are under pressure. The view is "volatile and weak" [3][5]. Rubber - On Tuesday, as of the day - session close, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 180 yuan per ton to 14,545 yuan per ton, the main NR contract rose 140 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton, and the main butadiene rubber BR contract rose 120 yuan per ton to 11,515 yuan per ton [5]. - The weather in rubber - producing areas is currently good, and raw material prices have loosened. Downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and exports will decline, while domestic demand has stable growth. Fundamentally, rubber supply increases while demand is stable. With the peak season gradually materializing, there is pressure on the upside of rubber prices. The view is "volatile" [5]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,373 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,085 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $269 - 273 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $331 - 336 per ton. In the downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1,045 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2,280 - 2,350 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5,050 yuan per ton [5]. - Overall, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in August, but the expected increase in imports in August is not large, and demand changes little. Although inventory increases month - on - month, it will not increase significantly year - on - year, and the total inventory level is relatively low year - on - year. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a volatile trend [5]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,970 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP production was - 306.75 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 476.87 yuan per ton, the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 751.33 yuan per ton, the profit of propane - dehydrogenation - based PP production was - 229.24 yuan per ton, and the profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was 70.67 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,956 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,514 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,403 yuan per ton. In terms of profit, the profit of oil - based polyethylene production was - 362 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based polyethylene production was 970 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, both supply and demand will start to recover, inventory will gradually transfer from society to downstream, and there are not many fundamental contradictions. Without a significant increase in the cost end, the overall upside space is limited. The view is "volatile" [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market fluctuated slightly. The price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was 4,840 - 4,910 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was about 5,000 - 5,300 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, prices rose and fell. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,760 - 4,950 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 5,060 - 5,210 yuan per ton. In the South China PVC market, prices increased. The mainstream reference price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material was about 4,900 - 4,970 yuan per ton, and the mainstream offer price of ethylene - based material was 5,020 - 5,100 yuan per ton [6]. - In August, the fundamental pressure on PVC has eased, and inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the market will gradually return to fundamental trading after the supply - side reform trading. The main contract will switch to V2501, which is in the off - season of consumption. It is expected that prices will be volatile and weak, and the basis and monthly spread will gradually strengthen [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on August 6, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, basis changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc [7]. Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while distillate inventories increased. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories decreased by 4.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 860,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Analysts previously expected a decrease of about 600,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 400,000 barrels in gasoline inventories, and an increase of about 800,000 barrels in distillate inventories [11]. - Cargo tracking data showed that Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in July dropped to a five - month low. The crude oil shipped from Russian ports in July reached 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 3.47 million barrels per day in June and the lowest level since March. Russia's exports to India in July increased by 5% month - on - month to 1.72 million barrels per day [11]. - Fed's Daly said that the time for interest - rate cuts is approaching, and two interest - rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment. It is also possible that there will not be two interest - rate cuts this year, but it is more likely that more cuts will be needed [11]. - US President Trump said that he will meet with Russia tomorrow. He will "wait and see" regarding tariffs on Russia and "quite possibly" impose a 100% tariff on Russian oil [11]. Chart Analysis Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc [13][15][17]. Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc [27][29][33]. Inter - Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 09 - 01), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), etc [41][43][46]. Inter - Commodity Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc [59][62][65]. Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc [69][70][72]. Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [74][75][76].

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.39%，报收 66.62 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.44%，报收 13675 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 21790 手至 30.4 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15069 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 110 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15153 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日下降 107 元/吨。国际市场方面，美国非农数据大幅低于市场预期，9 月降 | | | | 息概率走强，美元指数走弱，美棉价格重心环比上移，宏观层面扰动仍需持续关 | | | 棉花 | 注，基本面驱动有限，短期以震荡对待。国内市场方面，昨日市场情绪有所转暖， | 震荡 | | | 上证指数走强，棉价重心也有小幅上移。持仓方面来看，09 合约持仓仍以每日 2 万 | | | | 张以上速度下降中，主力净多持仓已无较多可下降空间，后续降幅或将放缓，9-1 | | | | 价差持续走弱情况也有所改善。在当前棉花商业库存偏低，且 09 合约已经进入到 | | | ...