1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 74,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons to 39,749 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons. In terms of imports in August 2025, the import volume of spodumene was 619,200 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease; the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year increase, and the export volume was 369 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased, while the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased and that of lithium iron phosphate increased. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - As the National Day approaches, with the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, the price is still supported. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project复产 after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty, so position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) price decreased. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply - side weekly output increased by 400 tons. Import data showed changes in spodumene and lithium carbonate. Demand - side output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased with different inventory changes. Inventory decreased by 981 tons with downstream restocking [3]. - Price outlook: Near the National Day, price is supported, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project复产 has uncertainty [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Lithium - battery industry chain product prices: Most products showed price changes, such as the main and continuous contracts of futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products. For example, the main contract of futures dropped 780 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices generally decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15] - Spreads: Show the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][23] - Precursor & cathode materials: Display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][31] - Lithium battery prices: Illustrate the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [34][36] - Inventory: Show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February to September 2025 [39][41] - Production costs: Present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This is a daily monitoring report on the basis and price spreads of iron ore futures, presenting data and charts on futures contract prices, basis, and price spreads of various iron ore varieties [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - **Contract Price Change**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts all increased compared to the previous day, with increases of 3.0, 2.0, and 1.0 respectively [3] - **Contract Spread Change**: The spreads of I05 - I09 and I09 - I01 increased by 1.0, while the spread of I01 - I05 decreased by 2.0 [3] 3.2 Basis 3.2.1 Basis Data - **Price and Basis Change**: The prices and bases of various iron ore varieties showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of KF increased by 1.0, and the basis remained unchanged; the price of PB decreased by 1.0, and the basis decreased by 2 [5] 3.2.2 Basis Charts - **Basis Trends**: The charts show the basis trends of different types of iron ore, including Brazilian powder ore, Australian medium - grade powder ore, Australian low - grade powder ore, and domestic ore [7][8][9] 3.3 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands - **New Deliverable Brands**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) were added to the I2202 contract, and four more (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Wugang Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were added later, with brand premiums all set to 0 [10] - **Premium Adjustment**: Only PB, BRBF, and Carajas Powder have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands are 0 [10] - **Quality and Premium Adjustment**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium for iron element is dynamically adjusted (currently X = 1.5) [10] 3.4 Variety Price Spread 3.4.1 Variety Price Spread Data - **Price Spread Change**: The price spreads between different iron ore varieties showed different degrees of change. For example, the spread of PB Lump - PB decreased by 2.0, while the spread of BRBF - PB increased by 3.0 [12] 3.4.2 Variety Price Spread Charts - **Price Spread Trends**: The charts show the price spread trends between different types of iron ore, including lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc [13][14][15] 3.5 Black Research Team - **Team Members**: The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of rebar is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation as there is no obvious upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show a volatile trend due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to follow the overall fluctuation of the black commodities in the short term, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.08 million lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased slightly. The national building materials production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all changed, showing weak data [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2601 closed at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a reduction of 0.8 million lots in positions. The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the demand (hot metal production) increased, and the steel mill profitability declined [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7155 lots in positions. The spot price of some coking coal varieties changed. The supply side had normal production in most mines, and the demand was good. The iron - making enterprises purchased as needed, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.73%), with an increase of 113 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke increased. The cost of coking enterprises increased, and the downstream replenishment demand was released as the holidays approached, but the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.44% month - on - month, and the positions decreased by 1401 lots to 333,800 lots. The market price in some regions changed. The steel procurement was ongoing, and the production was expected to increase. The cost was relatively stable [1]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5742 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month, and the positions increased by 621 lots to 188,000 lots. The market price in some regions changed. Some production enterprises resumed production, and the downstream steel mills' inventory days increased. The cost was supported to some extent [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, spot prices, profits, and cross - variety spreads of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [2]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different years and contracts [16][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread data of different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. 3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads - The report shows the spreads of cross - variety contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report presents the profit data of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Relatively Strong", and for treasury bond futures is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The equity market shows mixed performance. The current market expects 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The domestic economic data in August shows a slight decline in demand - side indicators, indicating that the economy is still in the process of bottom - stabilization. The current market mainly prices in long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamentals is limited. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost the inflation environment through more inclusive fiscal support. With the approaching of the important meeting in October, the long - short game intensifies, and it is advisable to reduce long positions appropriately [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term central bank signals to support the capital market. The current bond market shows no obvious inflection point signal and will continue the oscillating trend due to the mixed fundamentals [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 2,925.0 to 2,939.8, an increase of 14.8 or 0.51% [3] - IF rose from 4,483.8 to 4,530.0, an increase of 46.2 or 1.03% [3] - IC rose from 6,940.6 to 7,157.0, an increase of 216.4 or 3.12% [3] - IM rose from 7,127.0 to 7,303.2, an increase of 176.2 or 2.47% [3] Stock Indexes - Shanghai Composite 50 rose from 2,919.5 to 2,939.5, an increase of 20.0 or 0.68% [3] - CSI 300 rose from 4,519.8 to 4,566.1, an increase of 46.3 or 1.02% [3] - CSI 500 rose from 7,180.7 to 7,323.7, an increase of 143.0 or 1.99% [3] - CSI 1000 rose from 7,408.1 to 7,534.2, an increase of 126.2 or 1.70% [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.35 to 102.32, a decrease of 0.024 or 0.02% [3] - TF fell from 105.63 to 105.57, a decrease of 0.06 or 0.06% [3] - T fell from 107.72 to 107.65, a decrease of 0.065 or 0.06% [3] - TL fell from 114.32 to 114.07, a decrease of 0.25 or 0.22% [3] Group 4: Market News - The A - share market opened low and closed high. The ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon, and the STAR 50 Index rose more than 3%. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, with a trading volume of over 2.34 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28% [1][4] - Robot concept stocks continued to strengthen, and stocks in the new energy sectors such as photovoltaic and solid - state batteries rose. The semiconductor sector exploded again [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC futures contracts, as well as their respective basis trends [7][8][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] Exchange Rates - The report displays the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [23][24][25][27][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]

农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约继续减仓下行，1 月合约持仓增加，资金由 11 月向 1 月转移。 | 震荡下行 | | | 阿根廷下调农产品出口关税，农产品板块承压下行，油粕领跌、玉米跟跌，玉米 | | | | 价格区间随之下移。近期玉米加权合约增仓下行，新粮上市的丰收压力继续笼罩 | | | | 市场。周末黑龙江深加工玉米厂家玉米收购价格略显下滑，反映出市场对新季玉 | | | | 米价格的担忧情绪，出价厂家较上周有所增多，新粮上市量也将有所增加。受前 | | | | 期持续降雨影响，周末山东深受前期持续降雨影响，山加工企业门前到货量明显 | | | | 减少，玉米收割进度放缓，加上企业库存维持低位，周末部分企业玉米价格出现 | | | | 反弹。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口提货速度一般，新粮持续上市，但往西 | | | | 南运输不畅，主要粮源是新疆及东北地区，部分饲料厂使用小麦较多，玉米现货 | | | | 较少。技术上，玉米 11 月合约下探新低，近月合约贴水现货， ...

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