1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 821.0 | 819.5 | 1.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 799.0 | 798.0 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | -33.5 | -32.0 | -1.5 | | I01 | 832.5 | 830.0 | 2.5 | I01-I05 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 1 5 日 p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 220 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 27,158 tons [2]. - Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder on January 13 and updated the latest situation of mining restart activities [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, but the lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials, ternary power batteries, and iron - lithium power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decline, while the output of iron - lithium energy storage is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh. The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [2]. - Considering factors such as export tax rebate adjustment, strong terminal expectations, anti - involution of battery factories, and upward revision of production schedules by cathode material manufacturers, even if the sharp rise in raw material prices may suppress terminal demand, it is difficult to disprove in the short term. Under the trading logic of low downstream inventory and long - term bullish on lithium prices, the overall price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 fell 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **News**: Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder and updated mining restart information [2]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply: weekly output increased by 115 tons, but January 2026 output is expected to decline 1.2%. Demand: the output of most products in January 2026 is expected to decline, except for iron - lithium energy storage. Inventory: weekly social inventory increased by 337 tons [2]. - **Price Outlook**: The price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 5,040 yuan/ton, while the continuous contract increased by 3,540 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3,500 yuan/ton, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Price Differences**: Some price differences remained unchanged, while some changed slightly [4]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of most precursors and cathode materials increased [4]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium products from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - **Price Differences**: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 2025 to January 2026 [36][39]. - **Production Costs**: Charts display the production profit trends of different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US economy showed signs of improvement, with retail sales and housing sales data being positive. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. High copper prices led to more cautious downstream procurement, and the export window gradually opened, which may be beneficial for export demand in Q1. The US Supreme Court's non - decision on the Trump tariff policy case briefly alleviated market concerns. At present, there are signs of weakening fundamentals under high copper prices, but market sentiment remains strong. A prudent and optimistic view is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium procurement sentiment and decreasing costs. Alumina production continued to increase after environmental control ended, and with imports, inventories at manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate. The logic of spot prices converging to futures prices continued. The profit from Xinjiang's warehouse delivery may put pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the start - up of the processing end is expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The macro - micro divergence is gradually narrowing, and the over - heating boost is being rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.73% and Shanghai nickel rose 5.62%. LME and SHFE inventories increased. The Indonesian government plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026. As prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain have strengthened, and the production of primary nickel has increased significantly. The tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap, stimulating nickel prices to strengthen. Short - term attention is recommended to the opportunity of going long near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper first declined and then rose, with domestic wide - range fluctuations. The import of refined copper in China was at a loss. US economic data was positive, and copper inventories in multiple markets increased. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, and the export window opened. The non - decision on the tariff policy case alleviated concerns. Fundamentals are weakening under high prices, but market sentiment is strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina prices declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Ore reserves are high, costs are decreasing, and inventories are accumulating. The end of environmental control and export - related policies affect the market, and the macro - micro divergence is narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose significantly. Inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production. The industrial chain product prices strengthened, and the tightening of the quota policy may cause a supply - demand gap [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 14, 2026, the price of flat - water copper increased by 1360 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium increased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference both increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased. The social inventory increased by 20,000 tons. The active contract's import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lead products also changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot discount widened. The prices of raw materials such as alumina and pre - baked anodes changed slightly. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1250 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel inventory and social inventory increased, and stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.2%. The prices of related zinc products all increased. The weekly TC remained unchanged. LME inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of related tin products increased. SHFE inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipt increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are presented [13][15][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 are provided [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 are presented [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 are shown [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry and new - energy industry chain, and provides in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He has won relevant industry awards, focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and serves many leading new - energy enterprises [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The urea futures price oscillated upward on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,814 yuan/ton, a gain of 2.02%. The spot market continued to strengthen. Supply is expected to increase with the resumption of gas - based enterprises, but the pace needs attention. Demand has improved significantly, with the sales - to - production ratio reaching 120% - 310% in the mainstream areas. The market is expected to be in a high - level and strong oscillation, but the room for further increase is limited [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,222 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.16%. The spot prices were stable. The industry's operating rate increased slightly. The supply - demand pressure remains high, and the futures price will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - Glass: The glass futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1,096 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.06%. The spot price was stable. Supply may change before the Spring Festival, and demand follow - up has weakened. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Urea - On January 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,355, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 100 valid forecasts. The daily output of the urea industry was 199,800 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 135,000 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.86%, 1.68 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - On January 14, the inventory of urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [5]. - On January 14, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan was 1,750 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui was 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton (+10), and Shanxi was 1,630 yuan/ton (+10) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On January 14, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,813, a decrease of 1,400 from the previous trading day, with 1,341 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,058, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On January 14, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton [7]. - On January 14, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.21%, up from 86.82% the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 150,600 tons per day, also unchanged [8]. Chart Analysis The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][19][20]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research and has won many awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has also won relevant awards [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a volatile performance on January 15, 2026, with the overall market surging and then falling back, and the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume of the whole market was close to 4 trillion, hitting a new high. The index increase at the beginning of 2026 was mainly driven by global technological development, and geopolitical tensions also made rare metals popular. The stock index is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The short - term reasonable and sufficient liquidity is the biggest support for the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts restrict the bond market. The bond market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - The market had a volatile performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.82%. The rise was driven by technological development and geopolitical factors. The short - term trend is volatile, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract was down 0.04%, the 10 - year main contract was up 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract was up 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract was flat. The central bank carried out 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.75% from 3,137.6 to 3,114.0; IF decreased by 0.39% from 4,758.6 to 4,740.0; IC increased by 0.82% from 8,131.2 to 8,197.8; IM decreased by 0.05% from 8,160.4 to 8,156.0 [3] - The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.67% from 3,132.9 to 3,112.1; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.40% from 4,761.0 to 4,741.9; the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.04% from 8,143.3 to 8,227.7; the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.66% from 8,203.1 to 8,257.2 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS remained flat at 102.33; TF increased by 0.03% from 105.63 to 105.66; T increased by 0.07% from 107.85 to 107.93; TL decreased by 0.07% from 111.35 to 111.27 [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen financial services for major national scientific and technological tasks and technology - based small and medium - sized enterprises in 2026, and play a role in the science - finance coordination mechanism [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [5][6][7][8][9][10] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][21] Exchange Rates - The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [22][23][24][25][27][29]

Group 1: Index Trends - On January 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.31%, closing at 4126.09 points with a trading volume of 1607.041 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of 0.56%, closing at 14248.6 points with a trading volume of 2334.348 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of 0.66% with a trading volume of 884.281 billion yuan, opening at 8204.28, closing at 8257.17, with a daily high of 8415.1 and a low of 8154.24 [1] - The CSI 500 Index had a change of 1.04% with a trading volume of 815.959 billion yuan, opening at 8165.35, closing at 8227.7, with a daily high of 8368.22 and a low of 8123.4 [1] - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.67% with a trading volume of 216.078 billion yuan, opening at 3136.84, closing at 3112.07, with a daily high of 3169.75 and a low of 3106.13 [1] - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.4% with a trading volume of 891.334 billion yuan, opening at 4767.7, closing at 4741.93, with a daily high of 4818.1 and a low of 4720.25 [1] Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 54.04 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and media having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The CSI 500 rose 84.42 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals having a significant upward pull on the index [3] - The SSE 300 rose -19.1 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and computer having an upward pull, while food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had a downward pull [3] - The SSE 50 rose -20.86 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector having an upward pull, while food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had a downward pull [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of 13.22, IM01 of -5.71, IM02 of -42.54, and IM03 of -237.41 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of 15.75, IC01 of 7.19, IC02 of -10.14, and IC03 of -158.45 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of 4.14, IF01 of 4.0, IF02 of 0.9, and IF03 of -41.52 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.02, IH01 of 0.93, IH02 of 3.94, and IH03 of -0.83 [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are in a state of shock. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in Iran and Venezuela, have a significant impact on the prices of oil - related products. The supply and demand fundamentals of different products also affect their price trends [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the closing price of oil rose, but there was a significant plunge around 4 am, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 5%. The WTI February crude oil contract closed at $62.02/barrel, and the Brent March contract closed at $66.52/barrel. SC2602 closed at 457.0 yuan/barrel, up 8.1 yuan/barrel or 1.80%. Trump's statements on the Gaza conflict and the Iranian situation eased geopolitical concerns, causing large - scale fluctuations in oil prices. The view is that the price will be in a state of shock [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.07% to 2586 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2603) rose 2.51% to 3098 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in high - sulfur fuel oil was driven by the geopolitical situation in Iran and its relatively low valuation. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is generally stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the view is shock [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2602) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.38% to 3168 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 23.91%, down 0.28% from last week; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 24.81%, up 0.45% from last week; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 32.47%, up 3.41% from last week. The asphalt market is driven by the expectation of tight processing raw materials and reduced refinery supply, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger, with a shock view [3] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5116 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; EG2605 closed at 3867 yuan/ton, up 1.36%. Multiple PTA and polyester device maintenance plans were announced. In 2025, textile and clothing exports showed a downward trend. Geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. The contradiction between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices is the focus of the market. The polyester price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate widely, with a shock view [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) rose 185 yuan/ton to 16160 yuan/ton, and the NR main contract rose 175 yuan/ton to 13015 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. The rubber price rebounded under the macro - expectation warming, but the price elasticity decreased after the low - production season, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may suppress the price, with a shock view [5] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the Taicang spot price was 2257 yuan/ton. In January, the arrival volume decreased, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port de - stocking pressure will gradually appear. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - shock state, but the tense situation in Iran may intensify the fluctuations, with a shock view [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 6430 - 6550 yuan/ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly due to some temporary maintenance and shutdowns of upstream devices. The demand will recover in the first half of January and decline in the second half. It is expected that polyolefins will still be in a bottom - shock state, with a shock view [5][6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the prices in the East, North, and South China PVC markets showed different trends. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the domestic demand is slowing down. The 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will affect the price trend. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - shock state, with a shock view [6] Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis price information of various energy and chemical products on January 15, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price increase and decrease, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - The commander - in - chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that they are ready to respond to any misjudgment of the enemy. Trump's envoy announced the second phase of the "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, and Trump said that the US would observe the development of the Iranian situation before making a decision, not excluding the possibility of military action [9] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28][31][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][59][61] - **Production Profits**: Presents the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [65][67] Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research directions [70][71][72]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力05合约收盘价1774元/吨，微幅下跌0.11%。现货 | 市场再度回暖，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1740元/吨、1740元/吨，日环 | | | | | | 比分别上涨10元/吨、持平。近期尿素供应窄幅波动，昨日尿素行业日产量19.94万 | 吨，日环比减少0.26万吨，未来在气头企业复产预期下供应仍有提升预期。需求情 | | | | | | 尿素 | 绪继续分化，昨日主流地区产销率低位的仅有5%~10%，高位的40%~60%，仅个别 | 震荡 | 地区达到90%，区域间差异更加明显。短期尿素厂家出货压力可控，且需求仍有冬 | | | | 储肥支撑，再加上国际市场仍有扰动，市场将进入震荡整理阶段。后续随着春节临 | 近，市场成交趋于寡淡，供需压力或逐步体现，盘面或将承压。关注尿素供应恢复 | | | | | | 速度、现货成交氛围、印标最终结果、本周库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, London copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US core inflation level slowed down compared to expectations, which laid the groundwork for the Fed to cut interest rates in the future. However, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January was still relatively high. In China, the adjustment of export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaic cells might lead to a rush to export in the first quarter. LME, Comex, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, and BC copper inventories all increased. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and the trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The expansion of import losses and the opening of the export window were beneficial to export demand in the first quarter. The optimistic sentiment in the precious metal market continued to spread to the non - ferrous market. Although the short - term fundamentals weakened, the capital sentiment remained strong, and the expectation of a rush to export in the first quarter also supported copper prices. It was recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. The ore reserves of alumina plants were high, and the short - term premium procurement sentiment was low, leading to a continuous decline in costs. After the end of environmental control, alumina production continued to increase, and with the addition of imports, the inventories of manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate, and the logic of spot convergence to futures continued. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warehouse receipts might put new pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the operating rate of the processing end was expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The divergence between macro and micro gradually converged, and the over - heating boost was rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continued to be at a high level, and the spot discount continued to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell by 2.63%, and Shanghai nickel fell by 0.33%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Indonesia would adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From the fundamental perspective, as prices rose rapidly, the prices of products at all links in the industrial chain strengthened, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons. Hedging demand might put some pressure on the market price. The Indonesian policy stimulated the rise of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation and market sentiment. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US core inflation slowed down, and there was a rush - to - export expectation in the first quarter in China. Inventories increased, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the export window opened. It was recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, aluminum prices rose. Cost decreased, inventory accumulated, and the processing end was expected to be resilient. Aluminum prices remained high [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices fell, inventories decreased. Indonesia adjusted the quota policy, primary nickel production increased, and it was recommended to buy on dips [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 710 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. The active contract import loss decreased by 260 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 - 15 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventory increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1700 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.0%, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1001 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][17][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and has won relevant industry awards [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. He focuses on the research of lithium and nickel, and has won relevant industry awards [47].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米主力 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价继续上行，近月领涨、远期跟涨，3 月合约期价接近 2300 元整数关口，多头情绪占据主导。现货市场方面，受期货 | | | | 上涨影响，玉米现货市场节前备货对期、现报价提供支撑。东北近日有降雪，或 | | | | 影响玉米上量。销区进入节前备货模式，但随着近期拍卖量的增加，销区需求有 | | | | 一定的补给，销区采购需求多样化。周末华北地区玉米价格有涨有跌，主流价格 | | | 玉米 | 保持稳定，深加工企业根据自身到货情况价格窄幅调整。基层购销相对平稳，贸 | | | | 易商对优质玉米建库意愿逐渐增强。下游企业库存同比偏低，但节前备货压力不 | | | | 大。周末销区市场玉米价格主流平稳运行。节前备货刚需支撑，储备粮持续投放、 | | | | 进口玉米及替代品较多，压制价格上涨，市场整体购销活动一般。技术上，玉米 | ...