黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，盘中一度跌破 3000 元/吨关口，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3004 | 弱势整理 | | | 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌 42 元/吨，跌幅为 1.38%，持仓增加 19.1 万手。现货价格下跌，成交维 | | | | 持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 40 元/吨至 | | | | 3090 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.58 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 2.87%至 403.13 万吨，热卷 | | | | 库存下降 3.87%至 179.97 万吨，库存降幅有所收窄。目前螺纹强现实逐步淡化，弱预期逐步兑现，市场情 | | | | 绪整体偏悲观。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 706.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 | 震荡 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 昨日 LME 休市；昨晚 SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.23%至 78450 元/吨。宏观方面，美联储明 | | | | | 年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是新政策的不确定 | | | | | 性，不确定到 9 月份时有足够证据进行降息。欧央行表示欧元可能成为美元的替代， | | | | | 近期全球动荡为欧元推进全球化创造契机。库存方面，SMM 周一统计全国主流地区 铜库存环比上周五微降 0.02 万吨至 13.97 万吨，结束连续两周周一累库重新下降。需 | | | | 铜 | 求方面，高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗 | | | | | 普态度反复摇摆，但美政府关税立场缓和下，宏观方面整体朝着回暖的方向发展。基 | | | | | 本面方面，COMEX 市场继续"吸"铜，LME 库存快速下降，或引起非美国家铜紧 | | | | | 张的情形，从我国 4 月精通、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 651.5 | 662.5 | -11.0 | I05-I09 | -55.0 | -55.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 706.5 | 718.0 | -11.5 | I09-I01 | 35.0 | 35.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 671.5 | 682.5 | -11.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Weakly [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Pigs: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price decreased with reduced positions on Monday, and the spot price in the northern ports was stable over the weekend. The corn price in North China was strong, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises stopped falling. The substitution of wheat increased, and it is expected that the corn futures and spot prices will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans were closed on Monday. The domestic protein meal futures price oscillated. The postponement of the 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9th eased market concerns. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume this week exceeded 2 million tons, and the spot inventory of soybean meal is expected to continue to recover. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil almost closed flat on Monday. The international soybean - palm oil price spread widened, increasing the competitive advantage of palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased, and the production increase slowed down, which helped to ease the inventory pressure. The domestic inventory of three major vegetable oils decreased slightly, but was still higher than last year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to exceed 2 million tons this week, and the soybean oil inventory may continue to rise. Adopt a short - only strategy [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures price oscillated on Monday, with the near - month contract being weak and the far - month contract being relatively strong. The spot price increased slightly. Due to the impact of weather on terminal demand and sufficient supply, the egg price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' willingness to cull hens on egg prices [1]. - Pigs: The September pig futures contract rose on Monday, driven by the near - month contract. The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend, boosting the futures price. The current demand in the pig market is stable, and the price rebounded slightly today. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within a range tomorrow. The pig price is expected to be weak in June due to increased supply [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - The production of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25, 2025 increased by 0.73% [2][3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) [2][3]. - Thailand issued a heavy - rain risk warning from 06:00 on May 26 to 06:00 on May 27 [3]. - It is estimated that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June and 9.5 million tons in July. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has quickly recovered to over 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory will significantly increase [3]. - CGC will organize a two - way bidding trading of 11,905 tons of imported crude soybeans on May 28 [3]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][7][8][12][13][14][18][20][26] Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [30]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published many articles [30]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and been interviewed by the media [30].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.66%，报收 66.06 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.3%，报收 13385 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比减少 2270 手至 57.54 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14504 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14606 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 2 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数跌破 | | | | 100 整数关口后持续下移，对美棉价格无明显驱动。后续除宏观层面外，美棉主产 | | | | 区天气情况也需重点关注，预计短期 ICE 美棉仍低位震荡为主。国内市场方面， | | | | 郑棉期价重心小幅下移，当前国内新棉正常生长中，需求端表现相对稳定，棉花库 | | | | 存在逐渐下降，郑棉没有太多利空驱动，但上行驱动同样不足，预计短期郑棉在当 | | | | 前区间震荡运行为主，后续关注国际 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期、现市场双双走弱。主流地区现货价格昨日继续下调 10~40 元/吨不等， | | | | 山东临沂地区市场价格跌至 1860 元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应继续回升，昨日行业 | | | | 日产量 20.68 万吨，日环比增加 0.22 万吨。需求表现相对分散，北方正值小麦收获高 | | | | 峰期，对化肥的采购活动相对分散，工业下游如复合肥行业对原料保持刚需采购节 | | | | 奏，昨日主流地区尿素产销率多维持在 40%~90%区间。麦收之后尿素农业需求仍有 | 震荡 | | | 支撑，出口也存在放量空间，需求依旧可期，但需建立在尿素价格未大幅上涨的基础 | | | | 上。整体来看，尿素供应压力持续提升，需求虽仍有支撑但价格上方天花板限制明 | | | | 确。市场若无新增利好驱动则盘面将继续承压，后续需求兑现、环保扰动都可能给盘 | | | | 面带来止跌甚至反弹契机，关注需求力度、天气情况及环保动态。 | ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-27 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨 39.11 点，电子,计算机,传媒等板块对指数向上拉动明显，医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨 16.42 点，计算机,电子,国防军工等板块对指数向上拉动明显，汽车,医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨-22.16 点，银行,电力设备,汽车等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨-12.43 点，汽车,银行,食品饮料等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 电子 计算机 传媒 电力设备 机械设备 国防军工 通信 有色金属 食品饮料 环保 基础化工 公用事业 交通运输 商贸零售 农林牧渔 非银金融 房地产 建筑装饰 家用电器 石油石化 建筑材料 轻工制造 社会服务 钢铁 综合 纺织服饰 美容护理 煤炭 银行 汽车 医药生物 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 一、指数走势 05 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.05%，收于 3346.84 点，成交 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周一因阵亡将士纪念日美国休市，WTI 7 月原油即期合约无收盘 | 震荡 | | | 数据。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.04 美元至 64.74 美元/桶，跌幅 | | | | 0.06%。SC2507 以 455.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 0.5 元/桶，跌幅 0.11%。 | | | | 据欧佩克代表透露，欧佩克+将 7 月产量决策会议调整至 5 月 31 | | | | 日，原定于 6 月 1 日召开。此次会议可能会决定 7 月的产量，此 | | | | 前有消息人士称，7 月份日产量可能会再增加 41.1 万桶。伊朗表 | | | | 示，其为亚洲买家设定的 6 月轻质原油官方售价 OSP 为较阿曼/ | | | | 迪拜原油均价每桶升水 1.80 美元，高于上月的 1.65 美元升水。伊 | | | | 朗 6 月重质原油官方售价较阿曼/迪拜原油均价每桶贴水 0.15 美 | | | | 元，上月为贴水 0.35 美元。周 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 662.5 | 671.0 | -8.5 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -56.0 | 0.5 | | I09 | 718.0 | 727.0 | -9.0 | I09-I01 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 682.5 | 691.5 | -9.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | p 2 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...