1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel ore benchmark prices have slightly declined, but the premium operation has been relatively stable. In the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, the transaction center of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the raw material support has weakened, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market has shown a sluggish performance. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material side is tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious, with the output of primary nickel increasing month - on - month in December. Referring to the cost support of SMM's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110,000 yuan/ton, one can consider making low - position layouts and waiting for the realization of positive factors, but should be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly decline: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel both fell 3.7%, and most product prices in the industry chain declined. For example, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped from 925 yuan/nickel point last month to 883 yuan/nickel point this month, a decrease of 42 yuan/nickel point [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly changes: LME inventory decreased by 3,744 tons to 254,760 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 239 tons to 33,309 tons; social inventory increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons; and bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,200 tons [8][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Nickel ore**: The domestic trade price of 1.2% nickel ore in Indonesia remained at $23/wet ton, and that of 1.6% remained at $52.5/wet ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5/wet ton, and the price of Philippine nickel ore remained at $8.0/wet ton [5][22]. - **Refined nickel**: The output of refined nickel in December is expected to increase by 6.2% month - on - month to 27,400 tons [5][24]. - **Nickel iron**: The purchase price of large nickel - iron plants is 880 yuan/nickel point. Traders' inquiries are relatively active, but factory quotations are scarce. There may be production cuts in December [5][26]. - **Intermediate products**: The weekly average spot prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte have slightly declined. Recently, some intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park have been affected by tailings dam stacking issues, which are expected to last until the first quarter of next year. SMM expects that the MHP output in December will decrease by about 6,000 nickel tons [5][29]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The economic efficiency of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, and high - grade nickel matte has declined [5][34]. 3.4 Demand - **New energy**: In December 2025, the estimated output of ternary precursors in China is 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 23.09%. Domestic and export demands have declined, and the output is expected to drop. The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons. In November, the estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars is about 2.25 million, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, the retail volume of new energy vehicles can reach about 1.35 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% [6][46]. - **Stainless steel**: Most spot prices of stainless steel have declined this month, and the spot premium has dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country, measured by 89 warehouses, is 1.086 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series has increased by 10,000 tons to 669,000 tons. The estimated crude steel production in November is 3.4551 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. In October, the import of stainless steel increased by 3% month - on - month to 120,000 tons, the export decreased by 14% month - on - month to 358,000 tons, and the net export was 233,000 tons. The positions of raw materials and finished products have fluctuated, and the profit has changed little [6][8]. 3.5 Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [91]. 3.6 Options - Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and the put - call ratios of option trading volume and open interest related to Shanghai nickel is provided [96][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - From the weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to a decline in the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the expected复产 and preliminary downstream production schedules, the fundamentals may show a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal strength of bullish factors is weakening. Therefore, there is a significant risk in continuing to chase the current price increase. The significant deviation of the position - to - inventory ratio on Friday was mainly due to the centralized cancellation, which was caused by a large reduction in the warehouse receipt inventory on November 28th, and the return situation needs to be monitored. From a capital perspective, the current weighted contract position basically remains above 1 million lots. If the price stops rising, a decline in the position may have a significant impact on the futures price [6]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price - The monthly price of lithium carbonate futures increased by 19%, and all links in the industrial chain strengthened. The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 80,780 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, to 96,420 yuan/ton on November 28, 2025, an increase of 15,640 yuan/ton. Prices of various products in the lithium - battery industrial chain also showed different degrees of increase [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons. Downstream inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increased by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [6][8][22]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, etc. [31][32]. 3.4 Lithium Resources and Related Products 3.4.1 Lithium Resources - In October, lithium ore imports increased by 2% month - on - month to 530,000 tons [34]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium mica production increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 22% month - on - month to 24,000 tons [5][8][47]. 3.4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of lithium hydroxide production by process, capacity, etc. [60][61]. 3.4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of monthly operating rate, production, export, etc. [63][64]. 3.4.5 Waste Recycling - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of waste lithium - battery recycling volume, etc. [66][67]. 3.5 Precursor and Cathode Materials 3.5.1 Ternary Precursor - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, production, export, etc. [72][73]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons [75]. 3.5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Production increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons [77]. 3.5.4 Other Materials - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, production, operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate, etc. [78][79]. 3.6 Batteries 3.6.1 Power Cells - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production and production month - on - month change [81][82]. 3.6.2 Lithium - Battery Production - In October 2025, the production of ternary batteries was 34 GWh, lithium iron phosphate batteries was 147.92 GWh, and other types of batteries was 10.99 GWh, with a total of 192.91 GWh. The month - on - month increase was 2%, 10%, 2%, and 8% respectively; the year - on - year increase was 0%, 51%, 133%, and 41% respectively [85]. 3.6.3 Lithium - Battery Installation - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of installation structure, installation volume of different types of lithium batteries [86][87]. 3.6.4 Lithium - Battery Inventory - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of inventory structure, inventory volume of different types of lithium batteries [88][89]. 3.7 End - Users 3.7.1 New - Energy Vehicles - According to the Passenger Car Association, the preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November was about 2.25 million units, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle retail sales could reach about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate was expected to increase to 60% [5][90]. 3.7.2 Energy Storage - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of production capacity, operating rate, bidding, installation, and winning bid situations of energy - storage batteries [91][92]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore [93][94]. 3.9 Options - Not specifically summarized in the text, but relevant charts are provided, including charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, put - call ratio of position and trading volume [95][97][98].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, in a loss situation, production is gradually decreasing, but producer inventories remain high, with limited fundamental support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and market sentiment and new round of steel tender pricing should be monitored [6][7]. - For silicon - iron, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Although cost support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, start - up conditions, and electricity price settlement [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - The prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have decreased in resonance, and are at the lowest levels in recent years. From November 5th to November 28th, 2025, the manganese - silicon futures price dropped from 5,776 yuan/ton to 5,612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%; the silicon - iron futures price dropped from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.06% [11][13]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot prices of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have declined. For example, in manganese - silicon, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and other regions decreased by 160 - 70 yuan/ton from October 31st to November 28th, 2025; in silicon - iron, the prices in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other regions decreased by 100 - 70 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has weakened. For example, on November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the SM01 basis of manganese - silicon decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the SF01 basis of silicon - iron decreased by 14 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.4 Near - far Spread - The 1 - 5 spreads of both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have strengthened slightly. On November 28th, 2025, compared with November 21st, the 1 - 5 spread of manganese - silicon increased by 14 yuan/ton, and that of silicon - iron increased by 4 yuan/ton [23][26]. 3.5 Double - silicon Spread - The spread between silicon - iron and manganese - silicon (silicon - iron - silicon - manganese) decreased by 10 yuan/ton from November 6th to November 28th, 2025 [27]. 3.6 Production Cost - The production cost of silicon - iron has changed significantly, and the production costs in most regions (except Inner Mongolia) have strengthened. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production cost of silicon - iron in Gansu increased by 146 yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai increased by 386 yuan/ton [29][30]. 3.7 Production Profit - The immediate production profit of manganese - silicon has weakened, the production profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia has strengthened month - on - month, but the loss in most production areas has intensified. For example, from October 30th to November 27th, 2025, the production profit of manganese - silicon in the northern region decreased by 175.02 yuan/ton [31][35]. 3.8 Manganese - silicon Supply - The weekly output of manganese - silicon has declined and returned to the median level in recent years. The operating rates of manganese - silicon producers in Ningxia and Yunnan have dropped significantly. For example, from October 31st to November 28th, 2025, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased from 207,725 tons to 194,775 tons [36][39]. 3.9 Manganese - silicon Demand - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon is still at a low level in recent years, and the decline in crude steel production is obvious. For example, in October 2025, the crude steel output was 7199.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% [44][46]. 3.10 Manganese - silicon Cost - The price of manganese ore has increased slightly. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of Gabon manganese ore increased by 2.2 yuan/dry - ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [51][52]. 3.11 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore has remained stable. The inventory of Australian ore has decreased after reaching a phased high, and the inventory of Gabon manganese ore has decreased fluctuantly [54][57]. 3.12 Manganese - silicon Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased month - on - month, continuously hitting a new high in recent years. The available days of manganese - silicon inventory have increased slightly year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15,500 tons [61][68]. 3.13 Manganese - silicon Option - The historical volatility of manganese - silicon options is at a low level. The put - call ratio of the open interest/volume of manganese - silicon options fluctuates greatly, and the current ratio is at the median [69][72]. 3.14 Silicon - iron Supply - The weekly output of silicon - iron has continued to decline. In October 2025, the national silicon - iron output was 505,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons [75][83]. 3.15 Silicon - iron Demand - The demand for silicon - iron from steel mills is still at a low level. The output of magnesium ingots in October 2025 increased month - on - month, reaching a new high in recent years. The import volume of silicon - iron increased by 4.86% month - on - month in October 2025, and the export volume decreased by 36.14% [86][96]. 3.16 Silicon - iron Cost - The price of small - sized semi - coke has increased month - on - month. From October 30th to November 28th, 2025, the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi increased by 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% [97][99]. 3.17 Silicon - iron Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon - iron has decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute value is still high. The available days of silicon - iron inventory have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, from November 14th to November 28th, 2025, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 9,530 tons [101][108]. 3.18 Silicon - iron Option - The put - call ratio of the open interest of silicon - iron options has decreased fluctuantly [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest rate cuts, a marginally weakening but overall resilient economy, and inflation continuing to rise moderately, the bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation within the year [6] Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Performance: Favorable Factors Materialized, Bond Market Bearish - **Market Yield and Contract Price**: In early November, after the favorable policy of central bank's bond trading was implemented, with MLF and outright reverse repurchase continuing net injection, the capital was loose. However, the market's expectation of central bank's interest rate cut was low, resulting in a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation in the bond market. The bond yields oscillated slightly upward, and the yield curve steepened. As of November 28, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 1.42%, 1.62%, 1.84%, and 2.19% respectively, up 1.61BP, 5.21BP, 4.58BP, and 4.20BP from October 31. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 102.378 yuan, 105.745 yuan, 107.94 yuan, and 114.49 yuan respectively, down 0.16%, 0.30%, 0.68%, and 1.88% from October 31 [4][9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On November 28, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 30770, 58008, 66598, and 97157 respectively, with changes of - 3531, 349, - 12082, and - 22444 compared to October 31. The open interests were 67266, 144566, 234480, and 168934 respectively, with changes of - 16912, - 33502, - 50216, and - 13910 [14] - **Net Basis Spread**: The net basis spread showed a narrow - range oscillation [15] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of TS decreased slightly, and the long - end inter - delivery spread also declined slightly [17][20] 2. Policy Dynamics: Low Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - **Reverse Repurchase**: In November, reverse repurchase was flexibly deployed, with a cumulative net injection of 48056 billion yuan, a maturity of 53618 billion yuan, and a net withdrawal of 5562 billion yuan. The reverse repurchase balance at the end of November was 15118 billion yuan. As of November 28, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.43%, 1.52%, 1.30%, and 1.47% respectively, with changes of 1.83BP, 2.99BP, - 1.51BP, and 1.17BP from October 31 [24] - **Outright Reverse Repurchase**: In November, the central bank carried out 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase and 8000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase. After considering the maturity amount, the two - term outright reverse repurchase had a net additional operation of 5000 billion yuan, injecting medium - term liquidity into the market for the sixth consecutive month [28] - **MLF**: In November, the central bank carried out 10000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 9000 billion yuan of MLF maturing in the same month, there was a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [32] - **Treasury Bond Trading**: In October, the central bank resumed the suspended treasury bond trading operation since January 2025, with a net purchase of 200 billion yuan of treasury bonds [33][34] - **LPR**: In November, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous period, in line with market expectations [36] - **PSL**: In October, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 55 billion yuan, with a balance of 10093 billion yuan [36] - **Liquidity**: In November, the overall capital was loose. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit of joint - stock banks declined slightly, and the bill rate continued to be weak [39][40][43] 3. Bond Supply and Demand: Government Bonds Mostly Issued - **Bond Issuance**: In November, the total issuance of government bonds was 19571 billion yuan, with a maturity of 6786 billion yuan and a net issuance of 12785 billion yuan. As of November, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 62348 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 93.62%; the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 71231 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 92.51% [6][49] - **Special Bond Issuance**: In November, 4922 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued. From January to November, the cumulative issuance was 44568 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 96.9%, and the remaining quota for the year was 1432 billion yuan [6] - **Bond Market Trends**: The issuance multiple of local bonds in October remained low. Treasury bond yields rose slightly, US bond yields oscillated weakly, and credit bond spreads widened slightly [53][54][59][60] 4. Strategy Viewpoints: Low Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts, Bond Market Oscillation Continues - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation within the year due to loose funds, weak interest - rate - cut expectations, a marginally weakening but resilient economy, and moderately rising inflation [6]

光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：在质疑中前行 p 2 棉花：在质疑中前行 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量同比增加，当前仍是北半球棉花供应压力高峰期，且仍将持续一段时间，上方压力不容忽视。 1、USDA11月报预计，2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计值为2614.5万吨，环比增加52.3万吨，同比增加0.7%。其中美国棉花产量预计为307.4万吨，环比调增19.6万吨；巴 西棉花产量408.9万吨，环比调增10.9万吨；中国棉花产量预计值为729.4万吨，环比调增21.8万吨。2、当前国内棉花采摘、交售已经基本结束。据同花顺数据，截至11 月20日，新棉加工量为463.1万吨，同比增加140万吨，新棉加工率64.2%，同比增加4.3%。3、截至11月27日，全国棉花公检量404.89万吨，较去年同比增加53.94万吨， 其中新疆地区公检量398.38万吨。 需求端：下游新疆地区纺织企业利润较好，开机稳定，10月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品零售额 ...

光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 p 2 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 硅策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计11月国内工业硅产量38.52万吨，同比下滑2.5%，环比下滑4.9%。月度开炉数减少47台至257台，开炉率下滑6.91%至32.3%。 | | | 西北地区，新疆大厂月内关停11台矿热炉，甘肃新开1台；西南地区，云南关停21台矿热炉，四川关停25台，重庆关停1台。其他地区，内蒙及 | | | 河南各新开1台。 | | | 2.需求：11月多晶硅产量下滑1.86吨至11.9万吨，同比增长5.3%，环比下滑13.6%。11月DMC产量增加1.1万吨至21.2万吨，同比下滑1.5%，环比 | | | 增长5.5%。多晶硅联合限产限售下，现货普遍报价坚挺，因下游订单收缩，硅片率先减产降价，目前晶硅龙头企业与下游根据限售开启新订单， | | | 少量长单签至年末。因下游对高价较为抵触，大部分仍在协商中 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 5年1 2月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：供需双弱，胶价震荡 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内进入停割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅2.15%，NR盘面月涨幅0.37%，BR盘面月跌幅1.61% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 17500 2022-01 2 ...

光大证券 1 2020 年半年度业绩 EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES 光期能化：PVC策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 日 PVC：低估值，弱驱动 | 摘 要 | | --- | | 1、供应：11月仍有部分 PVC 企业检修，但相比于 10 月份数量有所减少，整体开工率有所提升，12月仍有个别企业有新投产计划，产能基 | | 数将进一步扩大，加之国内存有检修计划的 PVC生产企业较少，开工率有所提升，整体供应压力将继续增加。 | | 2、需求：国内房地产施工表现仍然偏弱，天气逐渐变冷，水泥发运和螺纹表需数据显示房地产施工走弱，下游需求淡季以及房地产行业持 | | 续低迷拖累，制品企业开工率较低，整体需求较差，制品企业拿货多保持刚需低价为主，观望情绪浓厚。出口方面，印度取消反倾销政策 | | 及 BIS 认证，国内出口量将有所增加，将缓解国内部分供应压力。 | | 3、库存：基本面依旧供强需弱，随着下游需求有进一步下滑预期，终端企业订单有继续转差预期，PVC 库存消化能力将继续减弱。 | | 4、总结：供应端，12月企业检修低谷，产量将继续增长；需求端，从水泥发运率和螺纹钢表观需求的数据来看 ...

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货：12月震荡为主 p 2 股指期货 月度要点 股 指 策 略 周 报 | 1、指数高位回落 | | --- | 11月，Wind全A缩量震荡，收跌2.22%，日均成交额1.9万亿元。中证1000下跌2.3%，中证500下跌4.08%，沪深300月度下跌2.46%， 上证50下跌1.39%。经过本轮回调，各指数估值回到近5年1倍标准差以内，继续回落风险降低。板块上，电子、计算机、电力设备 等板块回调幅度较大，拖累指数下行，但近期相关板块已经止跌企稳，出现反弹，预计12月板块轮动为主。资金层面情绪有所回落， 但并不存在显著的空头情绪，融资余额11月小幅减少135亿元；新成立股票型基金304亿元，混合型基金235亿元，普遍将在未来三 个月建仓，增量资金仍在路上。 2、政策真空期预计震荡为主 随着6月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以AI为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的增长水平 存在乐观预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of polyolefins is at a relatively low level, and polyolefins tend to fluctuate at the bottom. In December, the supply will increase while the demand will weaken, resulting in high pressure to transfer inventory downstream. However, since the monthly spread is already at the lowest level in the past five years, if the crude oil price remains relatively stable, polyolefins will tend to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 12 - month refinery maintenance decreases, and supply gradually rebounds - **PE**: In November, the number of unit overhauls decreased, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. In December, the overhauls remained low. The 500,000 - ton/year low - pressure unit of BASF is planned to be put into production at the end of the year, with limited impact on linear PE. The PE output is expected to be around 2.75 million tons [3] - **PP**: In November, the number of overhauled units decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively stable at around 78%. The output increased significantly year - on - year, and the domestic supply was relatively sufficient. In December, although there were no new units, the overhauled units resumed production one after another, and the output is expected to increase to around 3.3 million tons [3] 3.2 Demand: Demand gradually weakens in December - **PE**: In November, it was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the start - up rate remained high, but the start - up rates of other downstream industries began to decline. In December, the demand for agricultural film entered the off - season, and the demand is expected to continue to decline [3][19] - **PP**: In December, the traditional demand is expected to enter the off - season. Plastic weaving and injection molding manufacturers are affected by the winter consumption off - season, with fewer orders and cautious procurement. The demand is expected to decline [3][26] 3.3 Inventory: Refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains high - **PE**: At the end of November, the overall social inventory was at a normal level, and the petrochemical inventory was slightly higher than that of the same period last year. It is still in the stage of active inventory reduction [3][37] - **PP**: The supply is at a high level. Although refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the total inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The pressure to reduce inventory in December remains high [3][53] 3.4 Spread: Basis weakens - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds slightly but is at the lowest level in the past five years due to high supply pressure [62][69] - **PP**: The basis strengthens, and the monthly spread continues to weaken due to high supply pressure [81][87] 3.5 Profit: Coal - based profits weaken, and oil - based profits fluctuate slightly - **PE**: Both oil - based and coal - based production profits have declined [101] - **PP**: The production profits from different raw materials show different trends, and the overall situation is complex [106]