黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3050 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 20 元/吨，跌幅为 0.65%，持仓减少 5.78 万手。现货价格下跌，成交降至低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 30 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3150 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.45 万吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 7.96 万吨至 207.96 万吨，同比减少 25.86 万吨； | | | | 社库环比回落 15.73 万吨至 400.02 万吨，同比增加 103.63 万吨；厂库环比回落 7.1 万吨至 153.32 万吨，同 | | | | 比增加 4.6 万吨；螺纹表需环比回升 14.42 万吨至 230.79 吨，同比减少 3.41 万吨。螺纹产量低位回升，库 | | | | 存降幅继续扩大，表需回升，供需数据表 ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | 震荡下行 | | | 本周，玉米近强远弱，远期 2611 合约领跌，近月合约跟随调整。现货市场，本 周玉米价格整体上涨明显。截至 11 月 20 日，全国玉米周度均价 2243 元/吨，较 | | | | 上周上涨 24 元/吨。分地区看，东北玉米偏强，东北多数产区发北港已顺价，另 | | | | 外产区农户低价售粮意向一般。深加工企业收购价格小幅上调，市场整体气氛良 | | | | 好。华北玉米价格震荡偏强。从供应看，农户售粮节奏依然较慢，基层粮点收购 | | | | 量一般，市场购销活跃度不强。从需求看，深加工企业按需采购，饲料企业多同 | | | | 时采购本地和东北粮源，库存水平稳步上升。销区玉米价格震荡上涨。部分产区 | | | | 到销区的物流运输不畅，现货偏低的企业增加库存支撑港口贸易商报价坚挺。西 | | | | 南饲料企业维持 30-40 天安全头寸，多随用随采，长期建库意愿不强。技术上， | | | | 玉米主力 2601 合约反弹遇阻期价回落，远期新上市合约领跌，远月合约看空预 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton closed flat on Thursday at 63.78 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.15% to 13,465 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,504 lots to 544,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in December to around 40%, pressuring the US cotton price. Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways trend, with the main contract's open interest decreasing for two consecutive days and the 05 contract's increasing. There is currently high supply pressure and commercial inventory is accumulating rapidly, but there is also support from cost, demand, and expectations. The cotton price is unlikely to fall below the previous low again, and the supply pressure will gradually ease over time. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks a directional driver and is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Sugar: China's imports of syrup and premixed sugar powder in October were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was 5,600 - 5,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of old sugar from a Yunnan sugar - making group was 5,440 - 5,490 yuan/ton, and the new sugar price was 5,390 - 5,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processed sugar was 5,750 - 5,890 yuan/ton, with some prices down 20 yuan/ton. Raw sugar trading is guided by the crushing progress in India and Thailand, and with no new news, it is expected to trade sideways. More domestic sugar mills have started crushing, resulting in sufficient supply. Although imports of syrup and premixed powder in October decreased significantly, they were still higher than market expectations. The market has significant differences in views on the future, and the price shows no sign of bottoming out and is expected to continue to decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the main contract basis was 1,326 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. Some sugar data sources had missing values [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On November 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,503, a decrease of 17 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,563 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,826 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,848 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,902 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, up 0.1; the short - fiber fabric comprehensive load was 51.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 29.7, up 0.1 [2][3]. - Sugar: On November 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of the main contracts, but no specific analysis of the charts is provided [6][14]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 9390 | 9075 | -315 | | | | 近月 | 9390 | 9080 | -310 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9250 | 9300 | 50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9650 | 9700 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，市场全天高开低走，创业板指尾盘跌超 1%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 市下跌个股近 3800 只，今日成交 1.72 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.4%，深成指 | | | | 跌 0.76%，创业板指跌 1.12%。随着 6 月以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场 | | | | 重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以 AI 为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来三年的 | | | | 增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下 | | | | 涨价预期明显，中期盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自 6 月以来涨幅均较大， | | | | 临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自 11 月逐渐进入震荡行情。另一方面， | | | | 以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存 | | | | 在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛市。在此背景下，市场成交量 | | | | 和波动率逐渐降低，风险偏好 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]

Index Trends - On November 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4%, closing at 3931.05 points with a trading volume of 711.341 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.76%, closing at 12980.82 points with a trading volume of 996.847 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.63% with a trading volume of 356.712 billion yuan, opening at 7429.7, closing at 7340.41, with a daily high of 7439.04 and a low of 7332.32 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.85% with a trading volume of 254.158 billion yuan, opening at 7174.1, closing at 7061.95, with a daily high of 7180.73 and a low of 7056.9 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.4% with a trading volume of 100.982 billion yuan, opening at 3030.04, closing at 3008.29, with a daily high of 3038.91 and a low of 3004.24 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 46.8 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Computers, Household Appliances, and Power Equipment significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 60.8 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Basic Chemicals, Power Equipment, and Electronics significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 12.06 points from the previous close, with the Banking sector pulling the index up, while sectors such as Non - ferrous Metals, Power Equipment, and Electronics dragging it down [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of 1.97, IM01 - 86.62, IM02 - 315.74, and IM03 - 544.44 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 2.82, IC01 - 70.24, IC02 - 248.19, and IC03 - 455.12 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.63, IF01 - 25.08, IF02 - 57.87, and IF03 - 104.7 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.53, IH01 - 7.99, IH02 - 14.79, and IH03 - 24.75 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report presents data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24][25]

Report Overview - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: November 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore basis and spreads, including futures contract prices, spreads between different contracts, basis data of various iron ore varieties, and spreads between different iron ore varieties [3][5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 755.0 yuan/ton, 730.0 yuan/ton, and 791.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -2.5 yuan/ton, -4.0 yuan/ton, and -0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are 25.0 yuan/ton, -61.5 yuan/ton, and 36.5 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 1.5 yuan/ton, -3.5 yuan/ton, and 2.0 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 3.2 Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc. is provided, along with their prices, changes, delivery costs, and basis changes compared to the previous day [5] - **Basis Charts**: Charts showing the basis of different types of iron ore (Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores) are presented [7][8][9] 3.3 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands - **New Deliverable Brands**: Four new deliverable brands (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) are added to the I2202 contract, and four more (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Wugang standard fines, SP10 fines) are added later. The brand premiums for all these new brands are 0 [10] - **Adjustment of Brand Premiums**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while the premiums of other deliverable brands are adjusted to 0 [10] - **Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums**: The allowable range of iron grade is adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur are set. A dynamic adjustment mechanism (X) for the premium of iron element is introduced [10] 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Variety Spread Data**: Spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc. are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous day [12] - **Variety Spread Charts**: Charts showing different types of variety spreads (lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc.) are presented [15][16][20][21] 3.5 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces several members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 4.97% to 99,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 88,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,450 yuan/ton to 86,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 79,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 155 tons to 26,766 tons [2]. - On the supply side, production remained flat while imports increased. The weekly production increased slightly month-on-month, and the domestic production in November changed little compared to the previous month. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China increased by 46% month-on-month to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate from ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in November increased by 4% month-on-month to 114,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days have dropped to a new low of 28.1 days since the futures listing, with the downstream inventory decreasing at a faster pace [2]. - In November, the inventory continued to decline rapidly, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a low level. The price of ore remained firm. The strong terminal expectations and the rising prices of related materials increased the demand for inventory replenishment in each link and for raw materials. The market opened lower and closed higher on November 21. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 yuan mark and the position situation. In the short term, it may still fluctuate strongly. In the future, first, as the price rises, the spot trading has become sluggish, but the supply side is expected to increase the operating rate to a certain extent, and the gap in December may narrow compared to November; second, there was a mismatch between the terminal performance in October and market expectations, and there may be an off - season in the power sector in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year; third, the actual resumption of production of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi is still uncertain, with a 10 - working - day document publicity period, and attention should be paid to new market information after the 20th; fourth, the current weighted contract position of lithium carbonate is still large, and position disturbances need to be vigilant [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 99,060 yuan/ton, up 5,640 yuan [4]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,086 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,625 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,575 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 88,900 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 1,450 yuan [4]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 79,080 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 83,850 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,630 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.1 US dollars [4]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 148,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [4]. - Spreads: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,820 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 5,018.76 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan [4]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. For example, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 500 yuan/ton [4]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained stable, with only a few showing small increases, such as the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) increasing by 0.01 yuan/Wh [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [5][7] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11] - Spreads: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [15][17] - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from March to November 2025 [35][37] - Production Cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].