1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The current off - season demand restricts the elasticity of steel spot, with demand being more likely to decline than increase. Although the decline in the apparent demand of five major steel products is not significant, the apparent demand of external profile materials has decreased. The previous supply contraction expectation affected the futures market, and the market sentiment improvement led to a price rebound. With the implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan from early to mid - July, the spot has short - term support. In the absence of supply - demand contradictions, steel prices will follow the trend of coking coal in the short term. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1][3]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this week, and the arrival volume at ports will also decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill overhauls and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the billet export is strong, the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory increased slightly. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, with an average expected to be between 230 - 240 tons. The short - term iron ore will fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term view on the 09 contract remains bearish. It is recommended to buy the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot was stable with a slight upward bias. The coking coal auction in the domestic market improved, and the number of rising coal types increased. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23. After the end of the environmental protection inspection in late June, the supply is expected to increase. The demand may decrease due to potential environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan, and the iron - water production is expected to remain between 230 - 240 tons per day in July. For coke, it is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, buy the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pullback, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage. For coking coal, it is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coking coal 2601 contract, buy the coking coal 2509 contract at low prices after a pullback, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 3, 2, and 3 respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and South China were stable, while the price in North China decreased by 10. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05 and 01 increased by 5 and 4 respectively, and the 10 - contract remained unchanged [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged, while the slab price remained at 3730. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 4, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 3. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production decreased by 1.5 to 240.8, a decline of 0.6%. The output of five major steel products increased by 4.2 to 885.2, an increase of 0.5%. The rebar output increased by 3.2 to 221.1, an increase of 1.5%, including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 0.9 to 25.8 (3.4%) and an increase in converter output of 2.4 to 195.2 (1.2%). The hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.9 to 328.1, an increase of 0.3%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1 to 1339.9, a decline of 0.0%. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8 to 545.2, a decline of 0.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.8 to 344.9, an increase of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased slightly by 0.2%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 5.4 to 885.3, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0 to 224.9, an increase of 2.3%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.9 to 324.4, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, except for the increase in the warehouse - receipt cost of Jinbuba powder. The 09 - contract basis of most varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.7%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.1%. The spot prices of most iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 10.8%, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.1%. The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average port - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. The monthly national iron and crude steel production increased by 2.1% and 0.6% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 1.7%. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased slightly. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt), coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt), and coking coal 09 and 01 contracts also showed an upward trend. The 09 and 01 basis of coke and coking coal changed, and the J09 - J01 and JM09 - JM01 spreads also changed [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production decreased slightly, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained stable. The iron - water production decreased by 0.6%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The demand for coke and coking coal may be affected by potential production restrictions in Tangshan [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 9.7%, the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.5%. The coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [7].

| 硅铁(SF509) | 5478 | 5350 | 128 | 2.39% | 73.70% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5770 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5650 | 120 | 2.12% | 46.40% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 87 | 3150 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3063 | 45.30% | 2.84% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 39 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3230 | 34.50% | 3191 | 1.22% | | | | | | 42 | 775 | 5.73% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 733 | 35.20% | 焦炭 (J2509) | 1333 | 1425 ...

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to weaken. Short positions above 14,000 should be held. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and the changes in US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex in Shanghai decreased by 0.36%, and the full - latex basis decreased by 216.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup - shaped rubber decreased by 0.63%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.59% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.19% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production in Thailand increased by 157.52%, the production in Indonesia increased by 3.19%, the production in India increased by 5.07%, and the production in China increased significantly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, the domestic tire production decreased slightly, the tire export volume increased by 7.72%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 13.35% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.40%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7.67%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The log market is expected to enter a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2509 log contract closed at 785.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major deliverable standards remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: The monthly port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.23 million cubic meters, a decrease of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand increased by 0.12 million cubic meters. As of July 4, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.69 million cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is rising. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, the oversupply situation may intensify [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis decreased [4]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 350.00%, the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, the production in Xinjiang increased by 1.90%, the production in Yunnan increased by 146.26%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 73.22%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 13.75%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The export volume of industrial silicon in May decreased by 8.03% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 13.19%, the social inventory increased by 1.85%, the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.98%, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.53% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The polysilicon futures price has risen, but the fundamentals remain weak. Although the policy expectation drives the price up, the downstream demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the terminal demand and absorption [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 8.33%, the average price of N - type granular silicon increased by 7.35%, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 219.42% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The PS2506 contract increased by 5.12%. Some inter - monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 1.69%, the monthly production in June increased by 5.10%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed in May, and the silicon wafer production decreased in the week and increased slightly in June [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The soda ash market is in an oversupply situation, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and observation is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 glass contracts increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.11% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 soda ash contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.77% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.08%, the weekly production decreased by 1.07%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate changed, with the completion area and sales area showing improvement [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The short - term trading core drivers are the US copper tariff rate and its implementation time. If the 50% tariff rate is implemented at the end of July, the CL spread will be repaired by "COMEX copper price rising + LME copper price falling". If the implementation is delayed, LME copper price will be supported by arbitrage trading. The reference range for the main contract is 76,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2,850 - 3,150. It is recommended to short on rallies. For electrolytic aluminum, the current high - level price is expected to face pressure in the short - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the 20,800 resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, zinc price is weakening. Pay attention to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle [8]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - policy guidance and short - term disturbances from the news [11]. Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large. Pay attention to changes in US tariffs, and continue to hold previous high - level short positions [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the rhythm of steel mill production cuts [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 60,000 - 65,000. Observe the performance of funds around 65,000 and pay attention to macro risks [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11% [1]. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.30% [1]. - In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.19% [3]. - In June, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.22% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 1.49% [4]. - In June, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.30% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,040 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 6.50% [8]. - In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 5.36% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 121,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 10.04% [11]. - The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 10,325 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 116.90% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 264,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97% [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 3,288 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 36.39% [14]. - SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 2.37% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 3.83% [16]. - The stainless - steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 12.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 6,010 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 8.34% [18]. - In June, the lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 145 tons compared with the previous month, a decline of 0.15% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The inland methanol market has limited short - term downside due to July's concentrated maintenance. The port market faces dual pressures: expected 1.2 million tons of imports in July as Iranian plants resume production, and planned maintenance of coastal MTO reducing olefin demand. A slight inventory build - up is expected in July, with stronger price suppression. Risk of delayed shipping from Iran's low inventory should be watched [1]. Urea - Short - term price drivers are export demand and supply changes. Increased export demand and eased supply pressure support prices, while weakening agricultural and industrial demand limit price increases. Supply pressure is eased as daily production drops below 200,000 tons due to temporary maintenance. Agricultural demand will end soon, and industrial demand recovers slowly, so long positions should not be overly chased [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are in a strong - side oscillation due to the delayed US tariff policy and OPEC+ production increase. Demand suppression is mitigated, and the refinery operation rate is high due to tight diesel supply. Geopolitical risks exist, but no actual supply disruption has occurred. After the summer peak, prices will face pressure, and short - term trading should be range - bound [11]. Pure Benzene - Domestic plant maintenance reduces pure benzene load, but overseas load increases. Downstream demand has a slight rebound. Overall, weekly supply - demand improves marginally, but high port inventory and new production expectations limit price support. A cautious short or wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a reverse spread strategy for month - spreads [33]. Styrene - Supply is expected to increase as some plant maintenance is postponed and previous maintenance units resume. Demand weakens as downstream losses increase and inventory rises. Port inventory is rising, and the market lacks buying support after paper - cargo delivery. Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short - term trading should be short - biased, and options should sell call options above 7500 for EB08 [34]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply - demand tightness eases as PXN recovers, domestic maintenance is postponed, and overseas supply resumes. Oil price support is limited, but 7 - 8 month new PTA plant start - ups may keep supply tight. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [40]. - **PTA**: July maintenance is limited, new plants are stable, and downstream polyester may cut production. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the basis is falling. Oil and PX support prices in the short - term, but terminal feedback restricts price increases. Trade in the 4600 - 4900 range with a short - bias at the upper limit [40]. - **MEG**: Supply increases at home and abroad, with a balanced supply - demand in July and inventory build - up in 8 - 9 months. Domestic coal - based plants may restart, and imports are expected to rise. Terminal demand is weakening, so prices face pressure. Short - term trading should sell call options at 4400 for EG09 and use a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 [40]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand are weak as plants may cut production in July, and downstream demand is poor. Processing fees are mainly restored by PTA basis changes, and prices follow raw materials. Expand processing fees at low levels and watch for production cuts [40]. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply may improve as some plants cut production in July, but high inventory exists. Processing fees are recovering, and prices follow costs. Trading strategies are similar to PTA, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 and expanding processing fees at the lower limit [40]. Polyolefins - Both PP and PE have supply contractions. PP maintenance losses increase, and PE domestic maintenance peaks while imports are expected to be low. Cost - based valuations have recovered, and July balance sheets show inventory reduction, but overall pressure remains. Short - term support from inventory reduction can be watched, and mid - term short positions in PP can be established when prices reach 7200 - 7300 [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices decreased on July 8th. MA91 spread decreased, and the Taicang basis increased. Spot prices in various regions mostly declined, and some regional spreads changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, while some downstream operating rates like MTO and MTBE increased, and others like formaldehyde decreased [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Some futures contract prices increased on July 8th, and some spot prices remained stable or changed slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data showed various changes. Supply pressure eased, and demand had different trends in agriculture and industry [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes on July 9th. Spreads between different contracts and different oil types also changed [11]. - **Product Oil**: Product oil prices and spreads, as well as cracking spreads, showed various trends [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Domestic and overseas operating rates had different trends, and overall supply - demand had marginal changes [33]. - **Styrene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand weakens [34]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed on July 8th [40]. - **PX**: PX prices, spreads, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand tightness eases [40]. - **PTA**: PTA prices, spreads, processing fees, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is expected to weaken [40]. - **MEG**: MEG prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is turning to surplus [40]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products like POY, FDY, etc. changed, and operating rates of different polyester segments also changed [40]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: LLDPE and PP futures and spot prices changed on July 8th, and some spreads and basis values also changed [44]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: PE and PP operating rates, inventory data, and downstream operating rates changed. Both show supply contractions [44].

| 粕类产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 朱迪 Z0015979 2025年7月9日 | | | | 豆粕 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | 现价 2800 2800 0 0.00% 江苏豆粕 | | | | 期价 M2509 2935 2937 -2 -0.07% | | | | 基差 M2509 -135 -137 2 1.46% | | | | 现货基差报价 广东现货基差 m2509-150 m2509-150 - - | | | | 盘面进口榨利 美湾船期 - - - - | | | | 33 17 ાર 94.1% 盘面进口榨利 巴西9月船期 | | | | 仓单 42250 40280 1970 4.9% | | | | 菜相 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 张跃幅 | | | | 现价 江苏菜粕 2480 2500 -20 -0.80% | | | | 期价 RM2509 2576 2579 -3 -0.12% | | | | RM2509 -de -79 -17 -21.52% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, and analyzes the changes in total positions and the top 20 seats' positions [1][5][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total position significantly increased, with the top 20 seats mainly increasing positions. On July 8, the total position of the IF variety increased by 13,588 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 6,572 hands [1][5] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,747 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (1,425 hands), and Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position decrease (286 hands) [6] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,429 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase (2,179 hands), and CICC Wealth had the most short - position decrease (19 hands) [8] IH (SSE 50) - Total position slightly increased, and the positions of the top 20 seats changed little. On July 8, the total position of the IH variety increased by 2,249 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 2,097 hands [1][11] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,132 hands. Guotou Futures had the most long - position increase (352 hands), and GF Futures had the most long - position decrease (228 hands) [12] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,033 hands. GF Futures had the most short - position increase (440 hands), and Huawen Futures had the most short - position decrease (143 hands) [13] IC (CSI 500) - Total position significantly increased, and both Guotai Junan and CITIC increased their long and short positions by more than 2,000 hands. On July 8, the total position of the IC variety increased by 13,286 hands, and the position of the main contract 2507 increased by 4,008 hands [1][17] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,866 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase (2,439 hands), and Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position decrease (208 hands) [18] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,930 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase (2,807 hands), and Shan Jin Futures had the most short - position decrease (223 hands) [19] IM (CSI 1000) - Total position significantly increased, and CITIC increased its long and short positions by more than 8,000 hands. On July 8, the total position of the IM variety increased by 26,607 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 15,443 hands [1][23] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,750 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (8,512 hands), and Yong'an Futures had the most long - position decrease (401 hands) [24] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 67,946 hands. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase (9,100 hands), and CICC Wealth had the most short - position decrease (265 hands) [26]

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月7日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 其差 | 品种 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 前值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 77 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 11 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 137 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3098 | 300dd | -1 | 72 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3072 | 3076 | -4 | ರಿ8 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 77 | 3093 | 3090 | 3 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3250 | 0 | 40 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping, and provide data on price differentials, spreads, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions, as well as upcoming economic data releases. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Price Differentials**: The latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile data of various stock index futures price differentials are presented, such as the IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' price differentials and cross - period spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios of different stock index futures, like CSI 500/CSI 300, are provided along with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: The basis and implied repo rate (IRR) data of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures are given, including their latest values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented with relevant data [2]. Precious Metals - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, and futures prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, and domestic precious metal contracts are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [4][5][6]. - **Basis, Ratios, and Other Data**: Basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract), price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions are presented [4]. Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping routes of different shipping companies are given, including their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFI comprehensive index are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of shipping contracts (e.g., EC2602) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, Shanghai port - related indicators, and overseas economic data are presented [7]. Data Calendar - **Overseas Data**: Upcoming economic data releases in the eurozone and the US, such as the eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index and USDA export inspection data, are listed [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Upcoming domestic economic data releases, including China's June foreign exchange reserves and various commodity - related data, are provided [9].