1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铜 | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜减仓，主力合约8万偏下震荡收阳。今日现铜79990元，上海铜升水扩至130元，精废价差扩至2100元以 上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bonds: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending June 27, the stock index rose significantly, with small and medium - cap stocks showing obvious gains, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16% weekly. The current stock market is mainly supported by loose capital and risk appetite, and the overall trading volume of the stock market has significantly recovered [1]. - From the perspective of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 5 points, the valuation indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 6 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points [1]. - The rapid convergence of the discount in the term structure may indicate an increase in the bullish power of the market and is also related to the correction of style drift at the end of the quarter. It is expected that as the neutral strategy increases again after obtaining a low hedging cost with the season change, the discount is expected to deepen again [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.35% last week, mainly due to holding TF long positions on Thursday and Friday. In the long - term, the decline in industrial enterprise profits exerts some pressure on IC and IF, but the overall impact weight is not large. In the short - term, as the US dollar fluctuates downward, the pressure on interest rate spreads and exchange rates decreases, and the impact weight of the capital side on stock index futures continues to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators such as blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The stock index futures score is 7, and the bond futures score is 0 [2]. 3.2 Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. Both stock index futures and bond futures scores for inflation are 7 [3]. 3.3 Liquidity - Liquidity indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and bond indexes. The stock index futures score for liquidity is 5 [4]. 3.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The stock index futures score for index valuation is 9 [5]. 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Market sentiment indicators for the stock index such as margin trading balances, trading volumes, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the stock index. The bond futures score for stock - market sentiment is 8 [6]. 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bond - Market sentiment indicators for bonds such as the yield of 10 - year government bonds, credit spreads, etc. have different weekly changes, historical quantiles, and correlations with the bond index. The bond futures score for bond - market sentiment is 9 [7]. 3.7 Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital - related high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. 3.8 Prediction Signals - The short - term model, position volume indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF are provided. The comprehensive signal strength is synthesized by weighting the signals of three independent models (0 - 1) [18]. 3.9 Last Week's Situation - The positions of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF last week are presented, and the net value is tracked [20]. 3.10 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, and the model is constructed using PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression. The signals are divided into three categories: '1', '0', and '- 1'. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [21]. 3.11 Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T main contracts from June 23 to June 27 are provided, showing the signals from the N - S model and the trend regression model [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. For example, oil prices are expected to be short - term volatile and weak, and the stock market shows a preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [1][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fell from high levels. After the cooling of the Israel - Iran conflict, oil prices are back to being dominated by macro and supply - demand factors. OPEC+ may increase production in August. The oil market is expected to be short - term volatile and weak. [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Ship refueling and deep - processing demand are low. High - sulfur fuel oil demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited. FU is volatile and weak, while LU's cracking has rebounded from a low level. [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the Middle East market has declined. Domestic chemical demand has increased, but supply pressure still exists, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have given back the war premium as the Israel - Iran conflict stopped. Market attention will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed. [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, copper prices were in a high - level shock. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Short - term, the upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach 81,000, while long - term, short - selling at high levels is recommended. [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum was in a high - level shock on Friday night. There is a large market divergence. There are opportunities for short - selling at high levels after the sentiment stabilizes. [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc market is affected by the strike at a Peruvian smelter, but the global zinc supply is still expected to be in surplus. Wait for the opportunity to short - sell at high levels. [7] - **Lead**: Shanghai lead rose and then fell. The supply side provides support, and the rebound height depends on consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly. The pressure on the ore end has increased. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Tin**: Tin prices retraced last Friday. It is recommended to short - sell distant - month contracts at high levels. [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices follow steel. In the short - term, it is temporarily bullish. [18] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices follow steel. Demand is okay, and it is temporarily bullish in the short - term. [19] - **Ferroalloys** - **Alumina**: Spot trading is scarce. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures follow Shanghai aluminum. Consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the spread widens. [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has rebounded, but high positions indicate risk accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has increased with positions. It is expected to be in a range - bound state. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has increased with reduced positions. It is expected to be in a low - level range - bound state. [13] - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the market is in a range - bound adjustment. Export policies will be the key to the future trend. [24] - **Methanol**: The expected reduction in imports has not materialized. The market is expected to be in a short - term range - bound state. [25] - **Styrene**: The cost side lacks support, supply pressure has increased, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The cost side lacks support, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is relatively strong in the short - term but may be in a low - level range - bound state in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to follow the cost fluctuation. [28] - **PX & PTA**: Prices rebounded last Friday night. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium - term. [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price decline has slowed down. It is expected to be in a bottom - range - bound state. [30] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber prices follow raw materials. Bottle chips may have a chance to repair the processing margin, but it should be treated with caution. [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The drought situation in the US soybean产区 has improved. The market is expected to be in a range - bound state for now. [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is in a range - bound state. Long - term, a long - position strategy at low levels is recommended for vegetable oils. [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed planting area in Canada is lower than expected, and the rapeseed market continues to have a bearish outlook. [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The decline has slowed down. Wait for the US soybean planting area report. [38] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to be in a range - bound state, affected by factors such as wheat policies and state - reserve auctions. [39] - **Hogs**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the long - term supply pressure is large. [40] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to be weak in the long - term. A short - position strategy is recommended. [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is expected to be affected by the planting area report. Domestic cotton has a good inventory reduction, and long - positions should be held with caution. [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in a range - bound state. [43] - **Apples**: The market is bearish on the new - season output, and a short - position strategy is recommended. [44] - **Wood**: The price is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. [45] - **Pulp**: The price is in a low - level range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. [46] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to face pressure on the upside. [20] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a style preference for technology growth on the basis of dividend asset allocation. [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are mostly volatile. The bond market may face increased volatility risk in the short - term. [48]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policy. The short - term market trends are mostly in a state of shock, and long - term trends need to be judged based on different factors such as biodiesel development and policy intentions [2][3][4] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to decline. Imported soybean auctions have all failed. US soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and the market is waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. There is little remaining domestic soybean at the grass - roots level, and the policy side is conducting auctions to supplement supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the guidance of the US soybean area report and weather conditions [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, showing improvement. In the next two weeks, the weather in most US soybean - growing areas is favorable for growth. Domestic spot prices have continued to fall by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills has increased. Five domestic large enterprises have jointly purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal. The soybean meal market is currently in a state of shock. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting area report at 00:00 on July 1 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The soybean and palm oil futures are oscillating and waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. In the short term, the domestic soybean market still faces a large arrival pressure, and the procurement volume in the fourth quarter is relatively low. In the long term, the development of biodiesel can support the vegetable oil market, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The near - and far - month contracts of rapeseed futures have mixed performance but are generally weak. Rainfall in Canadian rapeseed - growing areas has improved soil humidity. The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and there are many uncertainties in new - crop weather. It is recommended to change the short - term strategy from bearish to wait - and - see [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate, with a divergence between futures and spot prices (spot is strong and futures are weak). The overall contradiction in the corn market is not significant. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase in corn prices. North port inventories are decreasing, and south port inventories are slightly increasing. The operating rate of starch deep - processing enterprises may continue to decline. The corn futures market is expected to oscillate in the near future [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are weakly adjusted with reduced positions, and spot prices have increased in various regions. In the medium term, due to the continuous increase in the inventory of breeding sows and the number of newborn piglets, the pressure on future hog slaughter is large, and the room for pig price rebound is limited. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Egg futures contracts show different performances within the day, generally oscillating in the previously formed low - level range. Spot prices are stable. Since the number of chick replenishments from January to April this year was the highest in the same period in recent years, it is believed that the production capacity is still being released. The culling of old hens is insufficient, and the culling age is relatively high. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out, and the strategy of shorting on rallies for futures prices continues [9]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is mainly in a state of shock, with different trends for each variety. The demand side is generally weak, but there are certain differences in supply and inventory for each product, which affects their price trends. The market is also affected by factors such as policies, cost, and international trade [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Steel - The steel market is mainly in a state of shock. The demand for rebar remains stable, production increases, and inventory removal slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coils declines, production remains high, and inventory accumulates slightly. The overall domestic demand is weak, but the lower support of the disk is strengthened, and the upside space is restricted [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be in a state of shock. The global supply is at a high level, and domestic port inventory begins to rise. The terminal demand in the off - season has toughness, and steel mills have no strong willingness to cut production. The market sentiment has improved, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited [3] Coke - The coke price has rebounded significantly, but it is likely to be a short - term market. The coking industry has a price increase expectation, production profit is meager, and production has declined. The overall inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has also rebounded significantly, probably a short - term market. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the production of coking coal mines has declined. The spot auction market has improved slightly, and the terminal inventory continues to decline [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese follows the steel trend. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production has begun to increase. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the short - term inventory is low, with an upward price trend [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon follows the steel trend. The iron water production remains high, the export demand has little marginal impact, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The short - term trend is bullish [8]

| FSI 11 King of 期货 1111. SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | | Company of | 握作评级 | 原油 ★★★ 燃料油 女女女 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ 能源日报 2025年06月27日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 季祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 隔夜国际油价震荡，SC08合约日内下跌0.87%。伊朗已正式颁布法律暂停与IAEA合作，美伊谈判并无确定性消 息。特别是针对伊朗"零波缩轴''红线仍存重大分歧。三季度旺季全球石油累库幅度面临收窄，但OPEG+谱产 压力之下宽松形势难有根本改观,伊以冲突降温后原油重回宏观与供需面主导，短期震荡偏弱运行,关注与美 伊核相关中东局势的反复风险。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜高位震荡，增仓测试8万关口。今日现铜上调到80125吨，上海铜升水扩至110元。海外投行再次强调对 铜征收高额进口关税，美盘高位涨幅走扩，LMEO-3月现货升水走高到300美元以上。临近7月市场关注 ...