| /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil supply - demand is becoming looser. With the progress of peace talks and various news factors, the oil price fluctuates more violently [3]. - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the fuel oil market to weaken. The low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. The high - sulfur fuel oil has potential raw material fluctuations and medium - term market pressure [4]. - The price of the asphalt main contract rose about 3.6% due to the expected reduction of Venezuelan crude oil supply, which may lead to a tight supply of raw materials for asphalt production. It has a positive impact on asphalt and other heavy oil products [5]. 3. Summary by Category Crude oil - The API data shows that the US API crude oil inventory from December 12 decreased by 9.322 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, but it did not boost oil prices [3]. - Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and the positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation increase market concerns about oil supply and lead to intensified oil price fluctuations [3]. Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - The positive progress of the US - Ukraine negotiation weakens the geopolitical risk premium, and the decline in crude oil prices drives the fuel oil market down [4]. - In the low - sulfur fuel oil market, the remaining low - sulfur quota in December is limited, production may shrink, and import demand may increase. The end - of - year shipping fuel peak season and unstable overseas refinery operations may provide short - term support, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [4]. - In the high - sulfur fuel oil market, US sanctions on Venezuela may affect the arrival of heavy high - sulfur raw materials, providing short - term support. However, rising inventories in Singapore and the Middle East and floating storage accumulation due to logistics blockages bring medium - term market pressure [4]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose about 3.6%. Trump's sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers led to a drop in Venezuelan crude oil shipments to zero (excluding those to the US), and the expected reduction in raw material supply for domestic asphalt production boosted asphalt futures prices [5]. - The competition of local refineries for other heavy high - sulfur crude oils in the spot market may lead to tight global heavy crude oil supply, which is also beneficial to asphalt and other heavy oil products [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Soybean oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Palm oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but low operability [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency with poor operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading space [1] Core Views - The short - term policy is releasing supply to the market, while the new domestic soybean crop has a tightening supply and market hoarding sentiment [2] - The trading logic has changed, with concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a South American bumper harvest. Wait for South American weather changes and consider going long on the main 05 contract [3] - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil are falling, facing short - term downward pressure and high inventory pressure in the overseas palm oil market [4] - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a bearish trend dominated by supply, and attention should be paid to changes in trade policies [6] - The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North Ports has slightly declined, with the short - term Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillating at a high level [7] - The live pig futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is strong, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving [9] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Domestic soybean decline has slowed down, with a trading average price of 4030 yuan/ton and a rotation - in floor price of 4000 yuan/ton. Imported soybeans had an auction volume of 513,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3852.1 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.9% [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the US soybean futures price has fallen to a key position. Wait for South American weather changes to go long on the main 05 contract [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and there is short - term downward pressure. The Malaysian palm oil market faces high inventory pressure [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has fallen significantly. The Australian rapeseed is about to be pressed, and the Canadian rapeseed price is low. The sector is in a supply - dominated bearish trend [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in the Northeast has slightly declined, and the procurement in North China has cooled down. The short - term Dalian corn 03 contract oscillates at a high level [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have added over 10,000 lots. The spot price is strong this weekend, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry is in a fundamental improvement stage [9]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of November was neutral. The current sugar - cane crushing and sugar production are seasonally declining, and the market's attention has shifted to the next season's output forecast. Due to less rainfall after the rainy season and a significant correction in the sugar - alcohol price ratio, Brazil's sugar production may decrease next year [1]. - As of the end of November in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased slightly year - on - year, but the ethanol market competitiveness declined, and the negative impact of the sharp decline in the sugar - alcohol price ratio was digested [2]. Detailed Summaries Production Data in the Second Half of November - Sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 15.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08% [1]. - Sugar - cane ATR was 133.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [1]. - Sugar - making ratio was 35.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.12 percentage points [1]. - Ethanol production was 1.185 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.32% [1]. - Sugar production was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94% [1]. Cumulative Data as of the End of November in the 2025/26 Season - Cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 592.266 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92% [2]. - Cumulative sugar - cane ATR was 138.33 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [2]. - Cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative ethanol production was 29.534 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.43% [2]. - Cumulative sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [2]. November Ethanol Sales Data - Ethanol sales volume in Brazil's central - southern region in November was 2.7 billion liters. Among them, anhydrous ethanol sales volume was 1.07 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%, and hydrous ethanol sales volume was 1.63 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.78% [2]. - The ethanol - gasoline price ratio increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the market competitiveness of ethanol declined. The sugar - alcohol price ratio dropped significantly, and the negative impact was digested [2].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月17日 (原油) 夜盘油价大幅下探，布伦特原油跌破60美元/桶。API公布数据显示美国至12月12日当周API原油库 存大幅下降932.2万桶，远超市场预期，然而该数据并未对油价构成提振。美乌柏林谈判整体进展 非常积极，在多个关键议题上已形成初步共识,并正向达成和平协议迈进。全球原油供需愈发宽松 背景下,和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步增大供应压力,油价承压下 行。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以 来新高且10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售 均低于预期，数据验证经济降温轨迹，市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高 点,如果实现突破则贵金属强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价收阴震荡在MA10日均线，市场反复消化美国10月与11月非农就业相抵消后的增量，1 月降息预期概率小增至三成。市场继续等待通胀指标。国内现铜91700元，上海贴水125元，广东升 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities remained basically unchanged this week. The strength of the precious metals factor remained high, while that of the non-ferrous and agricultural product sectors decreased. The precious metals sector was relatively strong, and the agricultural product and chemical sectors were relatively weak [2]. - The differentiation within the agricultural product sector widened, with the cross - section differentiation of oil and meal products increasing, and the marginal decline in the positions of soybean oil and sugar [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The cross - sectionally strong sector was precious metals, and the weak ones were agricultural products and chemicals. Gold's time - series momentum increased, and although the marginal position of silver decreased, it remained above the neutral range, with the cross - section differentiation at both ends widening [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the short - cycle momentum decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed, and zinc was relatively strong in the cross - section [2]. - In the black sector, the term structure showed narrowing differentiation, the positions of iron ore and rebar remained at low levels, and the short - cycle momentum increased slightly [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the short - cycle momentum factor rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [2]. Factor Returns and Signals - **Methanol**: The demand factor weakened by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.05%. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side was neutral to long, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side turned long, and the spread side was neutral [3][4]. - **General Situation (First Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.56%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.07% and a monthly return of - 0.88%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.12% and a monthly return of 1.45%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.00%; the cumulative return of major categories was 0.05% for the week and 0.50% for the month [3]. - **General Situation (Second Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of - 0.46% and a monthly return of - 0.36%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.49% and a monthly return of - 0.49%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.21%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.26%; the profit factor had a weekly return of 1.07% and a monthly return of 1.82%; the cumulative return of major categories was - 0.32% for the week and - 0.36% for the month [7]. - **General Situation (Third Table)**: The supply factor decreased by 0.08% last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.67%, and the comprehensive factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral [10][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral. The supply side's long feedback further weakened, the demand side's long feedback strengthened, the inventory side's short signal strength increased, and the spread side's short feedback strengthened [13]. - **Aluminum**: The demand factor strengthened by 0.38 last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.13%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.45%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.18%, and this week, the comprehensive signal remained short [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor decreased by 0.46% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.49%, the profit factor strengthened by 1.07%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the inventory side's long strength increased, the spread side was short, and the profit side continued to be short [15]. Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Product | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (suggesting a complex short - term trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing different trends. Some products face supply pressure, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors. Overall, the market is volatile, and different products require different investment strategies based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. Polypropylene's profit inversion led to more plant shutdowns, increasing the expected external supply of propylene from some integrated enterprises. Downstream demand decreased, and the market transaction center moved down slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had a weak consolidation. For polyethylene, the supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was also weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene futures fluctuated. The import pressure decreased slightly, and the port inventory was stable. The supply - demand pressure might be relieved, and it was expected to fluctuate at a low level. A mid - line long - spread arbitrage could be considered on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The cost side had no obvious positive drive, and although supply and demand were expected to increase, the inventory build - up expectation made it difficult to boost prices [3] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA declined slightly due to the falling oil price. Their weekly loads were stable, while polyester's load decreased slightly. PX was expected to be strong in the mid - line, and PTA's processing margin was expected to recover [4] - The price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level due to supply contraction expectations. However, it was still under pressure in the new year due to expected inventory build - up and new plant commissions [4] - Short - fiber's load and inventory decreased simultaneously, and its long - term supply - demand pattern was relatively good. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and its cost was the main driving factor [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's 05 contract fluctuated strongly. The port was de - stocking, but it was expected to build inventory significantly if the unloading speed recovered. The short - term supply - demand pattern was difficult to improve significantly [5] - Urea futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply was at a high level, and the industry's supply - demand was loose, with prices maintaining a range - bound oscillation [5] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices rose. Supply remained high, and although exports improved, domestic demand was weak. It was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [6] - Caustic soda prices had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to follow macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to energy - consumption regulations [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose. The supply pressure was large, and it was expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [7] - Glass was operating weakly. The industry was de - stocking, but it was difficult to maintain this trend. The long - term cold - repairing might continue due to profit compression [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming looser. Sanctions and potential agreements may increase supply pressure, causing oil prices to drop to a new low for the year [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will limit upside in the medium term. For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is expected to remain weak in the medium term despite some short-term supports [2]. - The asphalt market continues to be under pressure due to weak oil prices and fundamentals, with demand showing a north-south divide [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EU announced new sanctions against Russia on the 15th. US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a sharp decline in its oil exports. Market concerns about increased Russian oil supply after a potential agreement are pressuring oil prices [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitical factors affect supply, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand from refineries and shipping may provide some support [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production is expected to shrink in December, potentially increasing import demand. Seasonal consumption and unstable overseas refineries may support crack spreads in the short term, but it will remain weak in the medium term [2]. Asphalt - The spot price of asphalt dropped significantly last night, and the futures market followed suit. Demand shows a north-south divide, and the market continues to be under pressure [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals declined. After the Fed meeting, the easing trade continued. Gold neared its all - time high, and if it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue. Platinum and palladium reached new highs since listing, with the overseas market breaking through the previous high and accelerating the upward trend. Against the backdrop of strong gold and silver, relatively undervalued platinum is favored by long - position funds. With the booming development of commercial space and the potential for platinum use in the hydrogen energy sector, and strong rigid constraints on the supply side, the long - term allocation rhythm of platinum is clear. Tonight, focus on the release of US November non - farm payrolls data [1] Other Key Information - Fed Chair candidate game intensifies. Hassett faces opposition from top - level officials around Trump due to concerns about being too close to Trump. New York Fed President Williams believes that employment slowdown and inflation risk mitigation support a December rate cut, but it's hard to judge the next meeting; Boston Fed President Collins supports a December rate cut due to changes in inflation prospects; Fed Governor Milan thinks the underlying inflation is close to the target and the Fed's policy stance is too tight [2] - The US delegation in Berlin insists that Ukraine hand over the Donbass region, and Ukraine will get security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5. Zelensky says the negotiations are fruitful, but the US and Ukraine have different stances on territory. Trump says it's closer than ever to reaching a "peace agreement" [2] - US media reports that the White House privately scolds Netanyahu for violating the cease - fire agreement [2] - Japanese media reports that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years [2]

今天郑棉有所回调,本周的上涨主要受到传言的犹动。棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅 度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持 稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨，环比增加175.3万吨，同 比增加1万吨。截至12月11号，国内棉花累积加工量为579.4万吨，同比增加83.6万吨。纺企对于原料需求仍存 韧性,纺企成品库存不高,下游纺企现金流尚可。近期郑棉表现震荡偏强,产业可以关注套保机会,操作上多 单谨慎持有。 【白糖】 隔夜美糖弱势运行。巴西方面，11月上半月巴西中南部的生产数据偏中性。甘蔗压榨量有所增加，制糖比例同比下降，产糖量 同比继续增加。本榨季的生产已经进入尾声，累积产糖量维持高位。印度方面，今年生产进度较快，产量同比增加。国内方 面,郑糖增仓下跌。生产方面,11月广西生产进度偏慢，产糖量同比减少,关注后续生产情况。从产量预期来看,三季度广西 降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，广西甘蔗植被指数同比有所增加。25/26榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较 好,关注后续生产情况。综合 ...