| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为横盘震荡调整。现货报价平稳。国内仓单增加。上周中储粮大豆竞价收购2025年国产新豆国标 三等及以上大豆全部成交，均价3972元/吨。美豆方面美国仍然在向中国销售大豆,不过由于美国比巴西大豆缺 少价格竞争优势，市场对美豆销售进度存在忧虑的情绪，另外南美天气本周出现降雨,因此美豆价格出现回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 0.97% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 2.37% and 0.78% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals declined 0.32% and 1.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate as the expectation of interest rate cuts has been basically priced in [2][6]. - The short - term precious metals sector may experience high - level fluctuations, the non - ferrous sector may operate stably, the black sector may fluctuate weakly, the energy sector's price center has a downward pressure, the chemical sector may adjust with fluctuations, and the agricultural products and oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose 0.97% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous metals rose 2.37%, black metals rose 0.78%, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals fell 0.32% and 1.08% respectively [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Bottom - performing Varieties**: The top - performing varieties were silver, copper, and pulp, with increases of 7.54%, 6.12%, and 4.85% respectively; the bottom - performing varieties were glass, eggs, and ethylene glycol, with decreases of 5.6%, 5.34%, and 4.17% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, and the volatility - reducing varieties were mainly concentrated in the agricultural products and energy - chemicals sectors [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale increased last week. Only the agricultural products sector had a small net outflow of funds, and most of the inflows were concentrated in the Shanghai copper contract [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook - **General Outlook**: The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen has suppressed the US dollar index. The US core PCE in September was slightly lower than expected, laying a foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to US dollar liquidity. However, the Russia - Ukraine situation has reached a stalemate, bringing uncertainty to the continuous improvement of liquidity. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far lower than expected, hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating market concerns about the sharp deterioration of the labor market. Interest rate cuts have been basically priced in. After silver hit a new high, its upward momentum has slowed down. The short - term sector may experience high - level fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The expectation of the US interest rate cut is gradually increasing, and the pressure of the US dollar index on the sector is weakening. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December has improved, and the overall macro - environment is neutral to warm. Fundamentally, the inventory continued to decline last week, and the raw material supply remained tight, supporting the sector. However, as the price reached a high level, the support weakened. The short - term sector may operate stably [3]. - **Black Metals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. Steel mills' profits were still poor, and pig iron production continued to fall. There are many maintenance plans for steel mills in December, and pig iron production may further decline in the future. In terms of raw materials, the global iron ore shipment was relatively strong, and the port inventory continued to increase last week; the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable, but the import volume increased significantly, suppressing coal prices. With the cost moving down, the short - term sector may fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Energy**: Last week, the geopolitical situation further heated up, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan stalled, weakening the market's expectation of restoring Russian oil exports after reaching an agreement. EIA weekly data showed that US crude oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories increased significantly more than expected. The news boosted oil prices in the short term, and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut also had a positive impact on oil prices. However, the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals still determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [3]. - **Chemicals**: The polyester terminal weaving load continued to decline, and the supply - demand drive of the industrial chain was limited. There was insufficient drive for short - term price increases, and relevant varieties may adjust with fluctuations. For building materials, PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed. The pattern of using alkali to supplement chlorine is not expected to last long. It is possible that PVC enterprises will increase maintenance in the future, alleviating the supply pressure; the glass production capacity continued to be compressed, but some glass factories postponed cold - repair plans, and the actual progress needs to be monitored [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: In the new South American season, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is normal, while the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans is slow due to weather conditions. The domestic soybean meal spot supply remains loose, suppressing prices. The market currently estimates that Malaysian palm oil inventories will continue to increase in November, with high inventory pressure. The short - term oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the data verification of the USDA and MPOB reports [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with returns ranging from 0.78% - 0.87%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 23.4263 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.38%, and the total trading volume was 756,101,805, with a growth of 15.76% [39]. - The energy - chemicals ETF had a weekly return of - 0.67%, with a scale of 16.99 billion yuan and a decrease of 3.47% [39]. - The soybean meal ETF had a weekly return of - 0.59%, with a scale of 26.28 billion yuan and an increase of 0.45% [39]. - The non - ferrous metals ETF had a weekly return of 4.30%, with a scale of 30.11 billion yuan and an increase of 8.10% [39]. - The silver fund had a weekly return of 7.33%, with a scale of 43.47 billion yuan and no change in scale [39]. - The total scale of commodity ETFs was 24.5947 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.52%, and the total trading volume was 1,467,321,985, with a growth of 18.70% [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term market for oil is dominated by bullish news, with oil prices maintaining a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is still pressure from inventory accumulation in the medium - and long - term fundamentals [1]. - Before gold breaks through the previous high resistance, it is not advisable to chase after precious metals [2]. - There is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause this week, and it may experience a high - level correction under certain conditions [3]. - The upward trend of Shanghai aluminum may continue to a certain extent, but be cautious when chasing high [4]. - The casting aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend under the background of over - supply, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year [5]. - Alumina is in a weak operation and continues to explore the bottom [6]. - Zinc is not suitable for short - selling configuration, and there is a possibility that Shanghai zinc will break through the annual line and continue to rise [7]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Tin prices are approaching the adjustment point, and attention can be paid to the far - month out - of - the - money put option strategy [9]. - The expected production restriction in Xinjiang may drive up the price of industrial silicon in the short term [10]. - The short - term market for polysilicon is digesting the negative impact of rule changes, and subsequent attention should be paid to the actual warehouse receipt registration speed [11]. - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the continuity of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [12]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by factors such as downstream demand and supply, and their prices show different trends [13][14]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, observe the support strength at the bottom [14][15]. - The short - term upward space for the freight rate of the SCFI European route in December is limited, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [16]. - The fuel oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market presents a volatile trend [17]. - The BU of asphalt is under pressure [18]. - The upward resistance of urea prices increases, and the market oscillates and declines [19]. - The short - term market for methanol may oscillate and correct [20]. - The sentiment in the pure benzene market has slightly improved [21]. - Styrene is expected to be range - bound in the short term [22]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene face different supply and demand situations, and their prices are under different pressures [23]. - PVC is expected to operate in a low - level range, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [24]. - PX is expected to be stronger in the medium term, and the processing margin of PTA is expected to be repaired [25]. - Ethylene glycol is under supply pressure, and its medium - term weakness is difficult to change [26]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip follow different market trends, and their investment strategies vary [27]. - Glass is recommended to be observed temporarily, waiting for further cold - repair to drive up the price [28]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [29]. - For soda ash, adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds [30]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, observe whether the 05 contract can break through upward and look for subsequent long - buying opportunities [31]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and short - term attention should be paid to the guidance of the fundamentals of oils and fats [32]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [33]. - For soybeans, short - term attention should be paid to the performance of domestic policies and the spot market [34]. - For corn, pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat, and be cautious about the 01 contract [35]. - For pigs, the industry is in a de - stocking process, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [36]. - For eggs, adopt a short - selling strategy for the near - month contract [37]. - For cotton, temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [38]. - For sugar, pay attention to the subsequent production situation at home and abroad [39]. - For apples, pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [40]. - For wood, temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41]. - For pulp, the medium - term trend may be range - bound, and temporarily observe or conduct short - term operations [42]. - For stock indices, after the interest - rate meetings of major central banks this month, consider increasing positions slightly on dips [43]. - For treasury bonds, after the 12 - month political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference, there may be a turning point, and participate in the game of oversold rebounds of some varieties [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: UAE set the official selling price of Murban crude oil for January next year at $65.53/barrel. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan has stalled, and OPEC's November oil supply was further below the target. The short - term market is bullish, but there is inventory pressure in the medium - and long - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market shows a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur fuel oil has some support from coking profit, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by refinery device fluctuations [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply has slightly increased, while the weekly shipment volume has decreased, and the commercial inventory de - stocking rhythm has slowed down, with the BU under pressure [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuated greatly on Friday, and silver was relatively strong. Focus on the Fed meeting this week, and it is not advisable to chase high before gold breaks through the previous high [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices hit record highs last week. There is a probability that the upward trend will pause this week, and it may correct under certain conditions [3]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum slightly declined on Friday night. It may continue the upward trend, but be cautious when chasing high [4]. - **Zinc**: Supported by supply constraints and market sentiment, there is a possibility of breaking through the annual line and rising [7]. - **Lead**: It continued to rebound, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: Prices were pushed up by funds last week, and are approaching the adjustment point [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The expected production restriction in Xinjiang may drive up the price in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The rule change may lead to some funds leaving the market, and the fundamental pressure still exists [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana, and observe the bottom support strength [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The demand has some resilience, and observe the bottom support strength [15]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The upward resistance increased, and the market oscillated and declined due to high daily production and weak downstream chasing sentiment [19]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory decreased slightly, but the short - term market may oscillate and correct due to high coastal inventory and weak demand [20]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was slightly pushed up. Although there is pressure in reality, the market sentiment has slightly improved [21]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil fluctuations [22]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: They face different supply and demand situations, with polyethylene under pressure and polypropylene's supply support weakening [23]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to operate in a low - level range, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [24]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices fluctuated last week. PX is expected to be stronger in the medium term, and the processing margin of PTA is expected to be repaired [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure exists, and the medium - term weakness is difficult to change [26]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber follows the raw material price, and bottle - chip is affected by demand and cost [27]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the USDA report and the export and weather conditions of US soybeans, and observe the breakthrough of the 05 contract [31]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: They are expected to fluctuate within a range, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: They are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [33]. - **Soybeans**: Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of domestic policies and the spot market [34]. - **Corn**: The futures price declined, and attention should be paid to the sales progress of new grain in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [35]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The inventory is being reduced, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [36]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the near - month contract [37]. - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and pay attention to the export sales and supply - demand report [38]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the subsequent production situation at home and abroad [39]. - **Apples**: The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, and pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [40]. - **Wood**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy due to low inventory and weak demand [41]. - **Pulp**: The medium - term trend may be range - bound, and temporarily observe or conduct short - term operations [42]. Others - **Shipping**: The short - term upward space for the freight rate of the SCFI European route in December is limited, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation [16]. - **Financial Instruments**: - **Stock Indices**: The stock market shows a volatile and slightly stronger trend. After the interest - rate meetings of major central banks this month, consider increasing positions slightly on dips [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is oscillating, and after the 12 - month political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference, there may be a turning point, and participate in the game of oversold rebounds of some varieties [44].

| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡回落。本周螺纹表需继续回落，产量太幅下滑，库存继续去化。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍有持缓 解。铁水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，关注唐 山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基建增速持续回落，制造业PM 边际 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Operation Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ - Plastic: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Different chemical products in the industry are facing various market situations including supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and inventory changes. Each product's market trend is influenced by factors such as production capacity, device maintenance, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of propylene, plastic, and polypropylene declined. Propylene inventory is low but transaction prices are falling. Polyethylene has a weak fundamental situation, and polypropylene's supply support is weakening due to restart of some devices [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price increased slightly. The market sentiment improved due to expected device maintenance, but there is still pressure from high arrival expectations and weak demand. Styrene is expected to trade in a range [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are slightly weak. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory. Short - fiber's long - term supply - demand is good, while bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are falling and may fluctuate in a range. Urea prices are down, with overall loose supply - demand and expected range - bound trading [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a inventory - accumulation mode and may trade in a low - level range. Caustic soda is in a downward trend with high supply and weak demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is under supply pressure and continues to decline. Glass prices are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View - Overnight, the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far below expectations and hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market. A December interest rate cut is largely priced in, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state. Precious metals as a whole should not be chased higher before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. There is a supply gap for platinum this year, and the supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum outperforming palladium in terms of trend. Tonight, attention should be paid to the US September PCE data [1] - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the Fed should cut interest rates at next week's meeting, predicting a 25 - basis - point cut, and hopes to "bring interest rates much lower" in the long run [2] - The World Gold Council stated that gold prices may fluctuate within a range next year, and a continued strong performance is not ruled out [2] - US Trade Representative Greer said Trump is considering withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement next year, and the possibility of breaking the tripartite tie is not excluded [2] 3. Other Key Information - Red stars represent a predicted trending up, green stars represent a predicted trending down. One star means being bullish/bearish, indicating a driving force for rising/falling but poor operability on the market. Two stars mean holding long/short positions, with a clearer rising/falling trend and the market situation fermenting. Three stars represent an even clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. White stars mean the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the market and it is advisable to wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]

隔夜美糖震荡。巴西方面,虽然今年甘蔗压榨量和出糖率下降,但是制糖比例有所增加，弥补了食糖产量损失,巴西的食糖产 量将继续维持高位。北半球方面,印度和泰国开榨,由于天气条件较好,预计食糖产量同比增加，关注后续生产情况。国内方 面,郑糖弱势运行。10月份我国糖浆进口量同比下降，但是食糖进口较多，供给端依然存在一定压力。从交易逻辑来看，市场 的交易重心转向下榨季的估产。天气方面，三李废广西降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，目前广母甘蔗植 被指数同比有所增加，25/26榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较好，关注后续生产情况。综合来看，预计糖价将维持弱势。 (苹果) 期价高位震荡。现货方面,主流报价持稳。山东产区成交不多，西北产区冷库客商包装自有货源发市场为主,冷库成交不多。 本周冷库出货速度比上周稍有放缓，批发市场到货平稳，价格维持稳定。库存方面,卓创的数据显示，截至12月5日,新季度全 国冷库苹果库存为724.38万吨，同比下降13.24%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转向需求端。今年苹果质量较差、但是收 购价格较高,贸易商和果农惜售的情绪较高,可能会影响去库速度,因此后期的去库情况是未来的主要交易点。综 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2][7] Report Core View - The oil market has been dominated by positive news recently, and short-term oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [3] - The fuel oil market has continued to be weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount. The high-sulfur fuel oil supply pattern remains loose, while the low-sulfur fuel oil is under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from overseas refinery resumption and the improvement of supply and demand structure by shipping and power generation demand [4] - The overall supply of asphalt has slightly increased, but the weekly shipment volume has decreased, the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The PCE data to be released tonight is the only inflation guidance before the Fed's December meeting [3] - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan has stalled, weakening the market's expectation of Russian oil export recovery [3] - After the Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea facilities, Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas condensate production dropped to 1.9 million barrels per day, lower than the November average [3] - OPEC's oil production in November decreased due to the shutdown of some member states, and its supply was further below the target and slightly lower than the October output [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount, and weak market sentiment [4] - Before the substantial progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the geopolitical risk premium of high-sulfur fuel oil is difficult to subside, and the subsequent Russian resource shipments may slow down. However, the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East will increase shipments and partially offset the reduction caused by geopolitical factors [4] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is mainly disturbed by the unplanned maintenance of overseas refineries. Although the return of the Banyan refinery and the delay of the Azur refinery's resumption have relieved the short-term supply pressure, it is still under pressure due to the weakening of refined oil cracking [4] Asphalt - Recently, some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai, Wenzhou Zhongyou, and Shandong Shengxing have stopped production or switched to producing residual oil, while Ke石化 and Liaohe Petrochemical have increased production, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply [5] - The weekly shipment volume is less than 400,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period in the past four years [5] - The social inventory has decreased slightly from the previous week, and the year-on-year increase has gradually expanded since the inflection point of turning from decrease to increase in late October. The refinery inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and the overall commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down [5]

周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 961.04 0.75% 18.31% 0.96% 1.50 0.07 1.55 白银 13,687.00 7.54% 36.28% 5.80% 5.14 0.24 42.62 铜 92,780.00 6.12% 13.61% 28.54% 0.75 0.42 150.71 镍 117,790.00 0.61% 12.02% -2.23% 0.93 0.08 2.83 铝 22,345.00 3.40% 10.83% -4.02% 0.87 0.43 37.72 锡 317,500.00 4.08% 16.55% -0.60% 4.58 0.35 8.97 锌 23,305.00 3.92% 9.95% 36.02% 1.29 0.57 8.48 铅 17,290.00 1.17% 9.05% 5.67% 0.86 0.27 2.19 工业硅 8,805.00 -3.56% 24.47% -8.74% 0.93 -0.26 3.87 螺纹钢 3,157.00 1.28% 9.00% -13 ...