| 11/11/2 | > El to Billi | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月30日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属反弹，白宫方面称特朗普政府将推翻法院有关关税的裁决，正在进行的贸易谈判不会受影响。数 据方面美国周度初请失业金人数24万人高于预期和前值。近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方处于博弈阶段、贵金 属延续震荡调整格局，金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备强支撑，维持回调买入思路。 ★美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效,此前美国国际贸易法院叫停了"解放日"关税政策；特 朗普麾下官员对取得诉讼胜利表现得极具信心,还认为即使败诉也能另寻他法征收关税,同时关税谈判也将 继续推进，未来几周会有三份协议；美国财长：过去48小时贸易伙伴的态度没有任何变化。 ★美联储古 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].

据新华社消息，联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中说，美国政府关于立即实施行政中止的请求已获批准，在本法院 审议相关动议文件期间,美国国际贸易法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止,直至另行通 知。大连豆粕期货减仓小幅上涨。国内豆粕现货整体上企稳走平，成交趋于平淡。国内大豆供应超于宽松，全 国油厂开机率增高、压榨量加大，而需求端相对谨慎,油厂豆粕库存也逐步升高,现货基差持续走弱,需求端 多以刚需采购为主。豆粕行情缺乏持续上涨驱动,或继续震荡下行。投资者注意风险,关注未来可能发生的天 气变化。 国内呈现油弱箱强的状态。棕榈油大幅减仓,价格回调。美豆油方面市场担心生物柴油小型炼厂豁免敌策影响 需求。中期海外大豆方面会受天气驱动，天气会成为影响价格的主要因素，预计国内油箱期货盘面会跟随美盘 大豆波动。国内大豆现货方面5-7月份面临大量到港的压力。国内24度棕榈油现货方面5-6月份到港也环比增 加。海外棕榈油二季度三季度处于增产周期内,需要给予时间观察产量的增长情况。总体预计豆棕油维持区间 震荡走势。 【豆油&棕榈油】 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 | | | | SDIC F ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月30日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价收跌，布伦特07合约跌1.31%。受原油出口增加影响，上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下 降279.5万桶。市场已消化美国关税遇阻带来的短期情绪提振,但特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实 施关税的可能性依然较大，且OPEC+增产压力悬而未决，关注关税批动及供应风险明朗后的再次做 空机会。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属反弹，白宫方面称特朗普政府将推翻法院有关关税的裁决，正在进行的贸易谈判不会受 影响。数据方面美国周度初请失业金人数24万人高于预期和前值。近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方处 于博弈阶段,贵金属延续震荡调整格局,金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备强支撑，维持回调买入思 (铜) 隔夜铜价继续震荡，伦铜连续三个交易日震荡收阴。LME库存仍在流出，现货升水扩至50美元以 上。围绕特朗普对等关税的司法博弈反复;美国一季度GDP受出口及消费者支出的施累大。整体周内 铜价未脱离偏窄交投区间。关注国内边际需求变化，广东升水缩至65元。社库基本持平在13.87万 吨。倾向反弹空配或主动换月。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。铝市需求 ...

| 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 沥青 | なな女 | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 受美国国际贸易法院暂停特朗普部分关税生效的影响,风险资产市场情绪总体修复,SC07合约日内涨幅达2.98%。 昨日第39届OPEG+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基 线、5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增产指引仍令市场担忧。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶，关注今晚EIA 库存结果。原油市场短期受特朗普关税避阻影响需求预期得到提振，但特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实施关税 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Styrene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PX: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PTA: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Short Fiber: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Methanol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Urea: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PVC: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Caustic Soda: One red star, representing a bullish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Glass: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] - Soda Ash: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and seasonal factors that affect their prices and market outlooks [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be weak. Coastal olefin plant utilization has increased, but imports have led to port inventory accumulation. Coal prices are falling, and domestic production is high, with post - holiday inventory build - up expected [2] Urea - Urea futures prices are falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, and compound fertilizer production is decreasing. Exports are becoming clearer, and production enterprises have large inventory accumulations. The short - term market will be weakly volatile [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rose slightly. Macro news has boosted market sentiment, but polyethylene demand is in the off - season, and the polypropylene market is in a state of low supply and demand [4] Polyesters - The polyester industry has different trends. PX and PTA prices rebounded, but PX supply - demand is weakening. Ethylene glycol prices followed the rebound but face future pressure. Short - fiber prices rebounded, and bottle chips are in the peak season [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are falling due to cost reduction and supply - demand imbalance. There is new production expected in June, and exports may weaken. Caustic soda inventory is decreasing, but demand is not strong, and prices are under pressure [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling due to high inventory and upcoming rainy seasons. Soda ash prices are also falling, with inventory pressure and expected supply increase [8]

| | | | Million 国特期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈,纺企库存出现累积但仍不高,成品库存有所 增加，下游压价情况增多，淡季的压力有所增加。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比 降1.4万吨；2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。国内3 ...

铁矿今日盘面反弹。 供应端，全球发运正常波动，目前仍处于季节性偏强阶段，下半年产能释放的预期依然存在。 国内到港量 未来存在回升预期，全国港口库存继续去化的空间相对有限。需求端，终端需求进入淡季，铁水产量逐步高位回落，目前钢厂 盈利率尚可，中美贸易处于窗口期，我们预计铁水短期减产的空间相对有限。整体来看，铁矿供需存在一定边际走弱压力，外 部贸易有进一步缓和迹象，市场情绪有所好转，我们认为矿价走势以震荡为主。 | | | | Milli | 国际期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格表现偏弱。政策端只是在进行少量的投放。国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩小,主要表现为国产大豆 价格弱于进口大豆。进口大豆方面国内供应端在5-7月表现充裕,主要是巴西大豆大量到港。中期美盘大豆价格 走势会受到天气左右,预 ...

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...