| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月18日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续下跌，走势偏弱，棉花现货销售基差整体持稳;2025/26南疆机采3129/29B/杂3.5内主流较低销售基差在 CF01+950 "1050，较多报价在1050及以上，疆内自提。新棉集中上市，叠加需求一般、给价格带来一定的压力，但目前现货价格 总体持稳，预计郑棉仍难摆脱区间震荡的走势。截至11月13号 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides historical data on various financial products, including ETFs and indices, such as price, daily change, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles. 3. Summary by Product 3.1 50ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 3.183 to 3.150, with corresponding daily changes of -1.18%, -0.75%, and -0.28% [1]. - The current month's IV increased from 13.10% to 14.82%, and the next month's IV changed from 14.83% to 15.39% [1]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 100.02 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 4.741 to 4.683, with daily changes of -1.48%, -0.65%, and -0.57% [3]. - The current month's IV changed from 15.40% to 16.15%, and the next month's IV changed from 16.58% to 16.86% [3]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 108.77 [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 4.887 to 4.832, with daily changes of -1.55%, -0.63%, and -0.49% [6]. - The current month's IV increased from 15.26% to 17.03%, and the next month's IV increased from 16.63% to 17.39% [6]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 110.08 [12]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 7.338 to 7.262, with daily changes of -0.24%, -1.73%, and -1.04% [15]. - The current month's IV changed from 19.01% to 19.60%, and the next month's IV changed from 20.04% to 19.82% [15]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 104.88 [21]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 2.930 to 2.899, with daily changes of -1.74%, -0.10%, and -0.96% [25]. - The current month's IV increased from 19.73% to 20.53%, and the next month's IV changed from 20.56% to 20.07% [25]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 109.14 [29]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 3.093 to 3.051, with daily changes of -2.80%, -0.29%, and -1.07% [30]. - The current month's IV changed from 29.76% to 29.37%, and the next month's IV changed from 29.60% to 28.92% [30]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 101.69 [37]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 3.423 to 3.380, with daily changes of -2.04%, -0.68%, and -0.59% [42]. - The current month's IV changed from 23.07% to 21.33%, and the next month's IV changed from 22.13% to 21.03% [42]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 103.33 [45]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price first decreased and then increased, from 1.431 to 1.427, with daily changes of -2.59%, -0.63%, and 0.35% [51]. - The current month's IV changed from 33.04% to 32.45%, and the next month's IV changed from 32.14% to 32.07% [51]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 98.81 [53]. 3.9 STAR 50 ETF - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price first decreased and then increased, from 1.387 to 1.383, with daily changes of -2.53%, -0.65%, and 0.36% [56]. - The current month's IV changed from 32.74% to 32.19%, and the next month's IV changed from 32.78% to 31.74% [56]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 101.84 [62]. 3.10 300 Index - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 4628.140 to 4568.193, with daily changes of -1.57%, -0.65%, and -0.65% [68]. - The current month's IV changed from 14.19% to 15.67%, and the next month's IV changed from 16.75% to 17.18% [68]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 111.43 [72]. 3.11 1000 Index - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price first increased and then decreased, from 7502.757 to 7448.101, with daily changes of -1.16%, 0.27%, and -1.00% [73]. - The current month's IV increased from 17.46% to 19.75%, and the next month's IV changed from 19.71% to 19.61% [73]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 114.04 [77]. 3.12 SSE 50 Index - From November 14 - 18, 2025, the price decreased from 3038.426 to 3003.018, with daily changes of -1.15%, -0.87%, and -0.30% [81]. - The current month's IV changed from 13.94% to 14.63%, and the next month's IV changed from 65.79% to 62.90% [81]. - The skew index on November 18, 2025, was 104.65 [84].

Ullie El 2017 11:2 铂钢供求前景分析 国投期货研究院 姓名： 孙芳芳 投资咨询号： Z0018905 2025/11/18 contents 价格走势 铂、锂、金价格回顾 铂、耙消产业结构和消费趋势 产业结构、不同终端领域铂、把消费趋势 终端供求现状 3 铂供求现状 总结 供求格局总结 電投 SDIC FUTI 价格走势 铂、锂、金价格回顾 | | ■金/铂比 -- 黄金 -- 铝金 | 铂金和黄金价格走势图 | | 2015年大众"排放门"事件 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2014年克里米亚独立,西方制裁俄罗斯 | | | 4500.00 | | | | 2014-2015年,强美元,中国黄金零售大幅下滑 | | | | | 1990-2000日本失去的十年 | 2000年中国加入WTO. | 2015年一带一路实施,中国央行大量购金 | | | | | | 汽车尾气排放标准不断收严 | 2016年人民币入蓝,亚投行运行 | | | | | 1990海湾战争 | 2001年美国9.11时间 | 2018年后印度央行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is influenced by long - term bullish beliefs and short - term consumption concerns, with prices oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [1]. - The aluminum and alumina market shows short - term lack of industrial highlights, but the medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken [2]. - The zinc market is supported by exports and costs, with prices consolidating at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - The lead market faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support levels at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. - The nickel and stainless steel market is in a downward channel, with nickel prices showing a weak trend [5]. - The tin market needs to focus on domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. - The lithium carbonate market shows a strengthening trend in futures prices, with prices expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. - The polysilicon market is also expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Sentiment**: The market has a "strong belief" in long - term copper price increases, but end - of - year consumption strength is a concern [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: It continues the situation of "weak supply and demand", and the industry is concerned about the processing fee negotiation at the Shanghai Copper Annual Meeting. The traditional demand sectors have lower operating rates than last year, and the SMM inventory has decreased [1]. - **Overseas**: A landslide accident occurred in a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa), and the province has suspended all artisanal mining activities [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price oscillates between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. Short positions at last week's high can be held around 88,000 yuan, and put options with an exercise price of 84,000 yuan can be considered [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is 95.8 million tons, and the price is in a downward trend. The industry inventory is increasing, and it is expected to be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, and a new 240,000 - ton capacity project of Tianshan Aluminum is progressing steadily [2]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Policy**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the spot premium and discount have shown small - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - **Trend**: The medium - term oscillatory upward trend remains unbroken, but short - term attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. Zinc - **Market**: The LME zinc has risen by 1.7%, and the Shanghai zinc main contract has risen by 1.3% [3]. - **Spot and Supply**: The export window for zinc is open, the LME inventory has increased, and the import zinc concentrate TC has declined. Domestic zinc smelters' profits are under pressure, and there are cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is affected by environmental protection and high prices, and the domestic consumption expectation is average [3]. - **Trend**: The zinc price is expected to consolidate at the low level of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has increased sharply, and the price has risen and then fallen. The Shanghai lead has a weak fundamental turn - weak expectation [4]. - **Spot and Supply**: The overseas lead concentrate is being consumed, and the domestic lead concentrate supply is tight. The production of primary and secondary lead has different trends, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Consumption**: The consumption is expected to weaken, and the short - term correction pressure is increasing [4]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai lead faces significant short - term correction pressure, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton and the 60 - day moving average [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices have declined, and the market trading is weak [5]. - **Macro and Demand**: The inclusion of stainless steel in the list by the UK Department of Commerce has suppressed the demand expectation, and the market remains weak [5]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premiums of different nickel products vary, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have increased [5]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is in a weak trend, with the center of gravity shifting downward [5]. Tin - **Market**: The Shanghai tin has increased significantly, and the multi - empty game is intense due to uncertain supply in the short and long terms [6]. - **Supply**: The tin exports from Indonesia have decreased in October, and the African concentrate exports may be affected by the rainy season. The market is uncertain about the long - term supply [6]. - **Consumption**: The demand in traditional and photovoltaic fields at the end of the year is average, and the inventory has increased [6]. - **Trend**: Attention should be paid to domestic capital changes, and mid - to long - term short positions can be held around 295,000 yuan [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The price has risen again, and the trading is active [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price of Shanghai lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [7]. - **Demand**: The production of downstream material plants is active, and the order demand is strong [7]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, with different trends in smelter, downstream, and trading inventories [7]. - **Trend**: The futures price is strengthening, and the price range is expected to be 80,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The price has declined, and the market trading is average [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is constrained by the dry season in the southwest, and the demand in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is expected to decline. The possibility of production cuts by monomer plants is uncertain [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased [8]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited supply and demand improvement [8]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded after reaching a high, and the market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price has continued to rise, and the production capacity of lithium salt plants has been fully released [9]. - **Demand**: The demand has declined, and the price has been under pressure. The subsequent price increase by silicon wafer enterprises is expected [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has increased [9]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with its price influenced by policy expectations and related themes [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, while the black sector has recovered. The black sector is relatively strong in cross - section, while the non - ferrous and agricultural sectors are relatively weak [3]. - The comprehensive signals of methanol, float glass, iron ore, and lead have different trends this week, with methanol and float glass showing long signals, iron ore showing a short signal, and lead maintaining a short signal [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overview - In the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum of gold has declined, and the trading volume of silver has decreased significantly, with an expanding divergence at both ends of the cross - section. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum divergence has narrowed, and lead is relatively weak in the cross - section. In the black sector, the positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased slightly, but the short - term momentum time - series has recovered, and rebar is relatively strong in the cross - section. In the energy sector, the short - term momentum factor has declined, and the chemical sector is at the relatively strong end of the cross - section. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section divergence of oil and meal has narrowed, and the overall long - term momentum has stabilized slightly [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.57%, the demand factor decreased by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.58%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.45%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side has turned neutral, the demand side has weakened from a long signal to neutral, the inventory side is long, and the spread side is slightly bearish [5]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the profit factor increased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly bearish, the inventory side is long, and the spread side has weakened significantly from a long signal to neutral [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.2%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.3%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned short. The supply side remains bearish, the demand side has turned bearish, the inventory side has turned neutral, and the spread side remains neutral [11]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.18%, the demand factor weakened by 0.17%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The supply side has turned neutral, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side remains bearish [11].

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude oil market faces increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, with medium - term downward risk in oil prices. Short - term focus is on Russian oil export impact after sanctions and risks from Venezuela and Iran. Brent 01 contract dropped 0.4% overnight [2] - Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have reduced the probability of a December rate cut below 50%. The market awaits economic data for further guidance [3] - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term geopolitical support, but medium - term supply will be more abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stronger recent performance due to supply disruptions, but medium - term supply pressure remains [20] - Asphalt has weakening cost support and poor demand, with a bearish outlook in the medium - to - long term [21] - LPG is expected to be bullish due to tightened supply - demand [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper market is oscillating between 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. High - level short positions can be held with a stop - loss at 88,000 yuan. Attention is on the impact of the landslide in a Congolese copper mine [4] - Aluminum has a short - term weak fundamental situation with inventory increases, but the medium - term upward trend is not reversed [5] - Zinc prices may fall, with support at 22,200 yuan/ton for SHFE zinc. LME zinc may break through the support level [8] - Lead prices are expected to decline further, with support at 17,100 yuan/ton [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. Long - term short positions can be held with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Group 3: Industrial Metals and Related Products - Polysilicon prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation. PV terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, with prices expected to oscillate [12] - Iron ore supply has increased significantly, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to oscillate due to sufficient carbon supply and downstream pressure on raw material prices [15][16] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are supported by demand and cost factors [17][18] Group 4: Steel Products - Steel prices fell at night. Rebar demand is weak in the off - season, and hot - rolled coil demand is stable. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and prices may rebound in the short term [13] Group 5: Shipping - The SCFIS European route index dropped 9.8% last week. It may rebound in the next period. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts will be under pressure [19] Group 6: Chemicals - Urea futures are strong, but the spot price is stable with a slight decline. Supply is high, and the market may weaken [23] - Methanol prices are weak due to increased supply and weak demand [24] - Pure benzene has limited upside potential, and PTA follows PX fluctuations [29] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and demand is weakening, with a bearish outlook [30] - PVC may oscillate narrowly, and caustic soda is in a weak position [28] Group 7: Agricultural Products - Soybeans and soybean meal: The USDA November report is bullish. South American soybean planting progress is slow. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and there are opportunities for long positions at low prices [35] - Vegetable oils: Soybean oil is strong, and palm oil supply - demand pressure persists [36] - Corn futures may wait for a correction [38] - Live pigs' spot and futures prices are weak, with a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [39] - Eggs: Spot prices are stable with a slight decline, and short positions in near - month contracts can be held [40] - Cotton: The US agricultural report is bearish. Domestic cotton has supply pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [41] - Sugar: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi has positive expectations [41] - Apples: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [42] Group 8: Forestry and Pulp - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and short - term observation is recommended [43] - Pulp futures are slightly down. Inventory has increased, and prices are expected to improve in the long term but have limited short - term upside [44] Group 9: Financial Futures - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate due to unstable global macro - liquidity. Consider profit - taking in growth stocks and look for opportunities in consumption and cyclical sectors [45] - Treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. The yield curve steepening may end [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The November USDA report shows that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September, while the global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons. The import and export have both been increased by 65,000 tons. The期末 inventory has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons. The report is overall bearish, and the global cotton supply remains relatively loose in the new season. In the short - to - medium term, US cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025/26 Season Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production has been increased by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons, Brazil's by 108,000 tons, and US cotton production by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield [1]. - **Consumption**: Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons, with no adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Cotton consumption remains generally stable despite the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - **Import and Export**: Global imports have been increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports have also been increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - **期末库存**: The global期末库存 in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's期末库存 has been increased by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 (November), the production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, Brazil, and the US has shown different trends. The total global production has increased by 174,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November) [4]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption has decreased by 35,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with minor adjustments in different countries [4]. - **Import**: The total global import has increased by 212,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Vietnam and China [4]. - **Export**: The total global export has increased by 342,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Brazil and the US [4]. - **期末库存**: The total global期末库存 has increased by 315,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with increases in major countries such as China, the US, and Brazil [4].

国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 7 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2025/11/13 3.221 0.75% 13.06% 14.76% 2025/11/14 3.183 -1.18% 13.10% 14.83% 2025/11/17 3.159 -0.75% 13.46% 14.73% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 25.30% 26.50% 29.70% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 28.80% 29.40% 34.10% 近1年 次月IV分位数 35.40% 38.30% 34.50% 近2年 次月IV分位数 44.30% 46.30% 43.50% 2025年11月17日 金融期权波动率 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2022/11/15 2023/4/13 2023/9/7 2024/2/5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the overall market showed a volatile trend. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, major indices generally closed lower, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index leading the decline with a weekly drop of 3.84%. Textile and apparel industries performed well with a weekly increase of about 4.42%, while the electronics sector was weak with a weekly decline of about 4.76% [1]. - The market continued to focus on the issue of US dollar liquidity. Although the news of the end of the US government shutdown boosted market risk appetite to some extent, the tightness of US dollar liquidity remained unchanged. The Fed continued to send hawkish signals, reducing market expectations for a December interest - rate cut, and the weak yen also supported the US dollar. As a result, the US dollar remained strong last week, but the RMB was relatively stable, and the impact on Chinese asset prices was limited [1]. - In the short term, the global liquidity environment remains unstable, and the domestic market is expected to continue its volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the geopolitical environment and domestic policy signals [1]. - Most financial option implied volatilities (IV) in the options market continued to decline last week. The IVs of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 options (IV = 31%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 29%) have been falling since September but are still at relatively high levels above the median of the past year. The IVs of 50 and 300 options are currently in the range of 12% - 15%, and those of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options are in the range of 17% - 19%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the range of 80% - 115%, slightly higher than the previous week [2]. - The market may continue its volatile pattern, and the IVs of most financial options continue to decline. External liquidity pressure has a certain but limited impact on domestic asset prices. The domestic liquidity environment is generally positive, and the stable RMB exchange rate provides support for the A - share market. Investors can continue to hold indices with reasonable valuations, such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. With the decline of option IVs, they can also buy out - of - the - money call options on the corresponding indices with long - term expirations. For the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, which has large fluctuations and relatively high static valuations, investors holding spot can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If they have accumulated substantial spot returns, they can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small number of long - term call options to cope with irrational market rallies, such as the ChiNext Index. The CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures still have a high discount, and investors can consider continuing to hold the covered call strategy of long stock index and short out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the market was volatile. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, other major indices fell, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index leading the decline. Textile and apparel industries rose, while the electronics sector fell. The market focused on US dollar liquidity, and the US dollar remained strong while the RMB was stable [1]. 3.2 Options Market - Most financial option IVs continued to decline. The IVs of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and ChiNext Index options were relatively high but falling. The IVs of 50, 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 options were in different ranges, and the position PCR of most financial options increased slightly [2]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market may continue to fluctuate. Investors can hold reasonable - valued indices, buy long - term out - of - the - money call options on corresponding indices, manage risks for the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, and consider the covered call strategy for the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures [3]. 3.4 Data Tables - Data on various indices and ETFs, including closing prices, price changes, IVs, IV changes, historical quantiles, option trading volumes, and position PCRs, are provided from November 10 - 14, 2025 [5]. - Data on the IVs, quantiles, and other information of different indices and ETFs on specific dates (November 13, 14, and 17, 2025) are presented, along with historical trends of price and IV, IV term structures, and smile curves [9][20][29] etc.