Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long - term trend with a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more distinct long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, meaning a more distinct long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, representing a more distinct long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Eggs: ☆★☆, meaning a clear upward - looking trend and the market is developing [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market is in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, with different products having different influencing factors and development trends. Short - term and medium - term factors such as export, weather, and policy need to be continuously monitored [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are de - stocking, with stable spot prices. The new - crop domestic soybeans follow the principle of good quality at a good price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates horizontally. Imported soybeans are volatile, and short - term attention should be paid to US soybean exports, while medium - term attention should be on South American weather [2] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans are on holiday. The main contract of Dalian soybean futures is shifting from 01 to 05, with prices fluctuating. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 178.1 million tons. Argentina's soybean planting progress is slow. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, with increased crushing volume and rising soybean meal inventory. The M2605 contract has reached the upper edge of the shock platform, and its upward breakthrough depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of Malaysia's palm oil export market is still poor, and Indonesia's inventory increased slightly in September. The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The output of palm oil in November 1 - 20 is expected to increase by 3.24% month - on - month. Soybean oil has a de - stocking rebound. Short - term attention should be on US soybean exports, and medium - term on South American weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The positions of near - month contracts of rapeseed futures are decreasing, and prices are slightly falling. Canada's rapeseed export is poor, and domestic attention is on Australian rapeseed customs clearance and crushing. The short - term driving force of rapeseed is not significant, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Corn futures are in a wide - range shock at a high level. North port corn prices are firm, and Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market is worried about Northeast corn supply and transportation. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment willingness has increased. New grain is in the peak release period, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement, Northeast grain sales progress, and expired wheat auctions. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is technically strong, and it is recommended to wait and see first [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are weakly volatile, and spot prices continue to decline slightly. The demand for curing and sausage - making in the South will gradually start, but there is also pressure on the supply side. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle is mostly in a double - bottom "W" shape, and it is expected that pig prices will likely have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are rising sharply, and capital is pushing up the far - month contracts. The spot price in Hebei has increased slightly. In the long - term, the egg industry's inventory is expected to decline, but the current spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large, so chasing the rise is not recommended [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The cotton market has support from low commercial inventories and fast sales progress, but short - term upward space is still cautiously viewed. The sugar market is expected to remain weak. The apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets have different supply and demand and inventory situations, with opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. The pulp market is in a situation of high inventory and weak demand. The timber market has low - inventory support [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous trading range. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high, and sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. The market has a certain bullish expectation for the new - year planting in China. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation is to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. The market's trading focus is shifting to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong are mainly for small and medium - sized fruits, and prices in the northwest are stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The de - stocking situation will be the main trading point in the future [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR continued to rise slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan产区 in China has entered the non - production period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has dropped significantly. The demand performance is average, natural rubber inventories are increasing, synthetic rubber inventories are starting to decrease, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The operation is to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price is fluctuating, and the spot price is stable. The external market price is still high, and domestic supply is expected to remain low. Port outbound volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and low inventory supports the price. The operation is to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - No clear core views are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the price, price change, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over specific periods, including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 50ETF price was 3.110, 3.114, and 3.112 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.52%, 0.13%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 11.24%, 12.36%, and 12.02%, and the next month IV was 12.76%, N/A, and 12.87%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 2.80% - 3.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 12.20% - 16.00% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.38 [7]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price was 4.597, 4.626, and 4.622 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.88%, 0.63%, and -0.09%. The current month IV was 14.87%, 14.02%, and 13.68%, and the next month IV was 14.47%, N/A, and 14.54%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 22.40% - 44.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 29.50% - 34.80% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.50 [10]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price was 4.740, 4.778, and 4.768 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.64%, 0.80%, and -0.21%. The current month IV was 16.50%, 14.09%, and 13.88%, and the next month IV was 14.91%, N/A, and 14.59%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 26.50% - 63.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.60% - 39.10% [11]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.13 [17]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price was 7.054, 7.065, and 7.050 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.91%, 1.36%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 20.90%, 17.97%, and 17.67%, and the next month IV was 18.55%, N/A, and 18.53%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 27.80% - 61.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.80% - 36.30% [20]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 113.37 [25]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price was 2.820, 2.825, and 2.817 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.18%, 0.18%, and -0.28%. The current month IV was 20.52%, 18.98%, and 18.52%, and the next month IV was 19.26%, N/A, and 18.99%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 59.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 42.90% [29]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 110.26 [35]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price was 2.961, 3.027, and 3.012 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.82%, 2.23%, and -0.50%. The current month IV was 26.96%, 26.05%, and 26.15%, and the next month IV was 26.08%, N/A, and 26.69%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 50.60% - 63.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 45.10% - 63.40% [36]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.55 [42]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price was 3.313, 3.370, and 3.358 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.35%, 1.72%, and -0.36%. The current month IV was 23.34%, 18.41%, and 17.90%, and the next month IV was 19.17%, N/A, and 18.51%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 29.70% - 74.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 33.80% - 53.00% [46]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.04 [49]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price was 1.369, 1.382, and 1.379 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.66%, 0.95%, and -0.22%. The current month IV was 34.51%, 26.80%, and 27.06%, and the next month IV was 27.59%, N/A, and 27.16%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 34.20% - 73.00%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 54.90% [55]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 97.96 [57]. 3.9 Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF price was 1.325, 1.340, and 1.336 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.61%, 1.13%, and -0.30%. The current month IV was 28.18%, 27.18%, and 27.64%, and the next month IV was 28.36%, N/A, and 28.44%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 35.90% - 58.30%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.00% - 58.10% [60]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 101.92 [64]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 300 Index price was 4490.405, 4517.626, and 4515.403 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.95%, 0.61%, and -0.05%. The current month IV was 14.92%, 13.89%, and 14.12%, and the next month IV was 15.81%, 15.02%, and 14.81%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 43.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 27.70% - 44.50% [70]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.31 [74]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 1000 Index price was 7249.947, 7248.449, and 7257.454 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.31%, -0.02%, and 0.12%. The current month IV was 19.12%, 18.68%, and 17.88%, and the next month IV was 19.92%, 19.30%, and 19.00%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 17.30% - 26.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 14.70% - 25.30% [75]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 118.11 [80]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index price was 2968.202, 2971.799, and 2972.265 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, and 0.02%. The current month IV was 13.18%, 12.13%, and 12.25%, and the next month IV was 48.04%, 48.30%, and 47.22%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 8.10% - 19.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.80% - 68.00% [86]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 109.32 [93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Positive (Bullish) - Propylene, Plastic, Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] Negative (Bearish) - Pure Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Bottle Chips, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fibers: ★☆☆ [1] Neutral - Glass, Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two olefin futures contracts continued to consolidate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Polyolefin futures contracts remained in a bearish pattern [2]. - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern, and styrene will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. - PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA will follow cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material price fluctuations, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate [5]. - PVC and caustic soda are expected to run in a low - level range, with PVC potentially showing a stop - falling and stabilizing trend [6]. - Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7]. Summary by Industry Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices increased due to tight supply, but downstream cost pressure may limit upward space. Plastic and polypropylene futures remained bearish, with stable domestic supply and weak demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved slightly, with profits repaired, and will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic, and its processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material prices, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with short - term long - side or positive - spread strategies advisable, but high inventory may suppress the upward space. Urea prices may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC may run in a low - level range, with a possible stop - falling and stabilizing trend due to factors such as improved export and cost support. Caustic soda is weakly operating due to high supply and low demand [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a long - term supply - surplus situation, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hexanediol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows a weak trend, with acrylene price rising but facing constraints, and plastic and polypropylene in a bearish pattern [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market is in an oscillatory state, with pure benzene likely to oscillate and styrene maintaining a low - level range [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA following cost - driven logic, and other products having their own supply - demand characteristics [4]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC and caustic soda in an oscillatory state, with PVC likely to operate in a low - level range and caustic soda running weakly [6]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash in an oversupply situation in the long - term and glass expected to oscillate strongly, and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Acrylene futures fluctuate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Supply in Shandong is tight, pushing up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Polyethylene has stable domestic supply and weakening demand, while polypropylene downstream has low inventory - building willingness [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are under pressure due to weakening gasoline crack spreads, high arrival expectations, and falling demand, but may oscillate due to future device maintenance [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply - demand structure improves slightly, and profit is repaired, but the price may continue to oscillate [3]. Polyester - PX short - term supply - demand weakens, but is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [4]. - Hexanediol supply improves marginally, with limited medium - term rebound space. Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle chip demand fades [4]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are strong, but high imports and potential MTO shutdowns may limit the upside [5]. - Urea prices rise in the short - term due to concentrated demand release, but may return to a stalemate as the demand boost is not sustainable [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillates. Export may improve, and prices may stop falling, but high inventory pressure remains [6]. - Caustic soda oscillates. High inventory, poor demand, and potential alumina production cuts lead to a weak trend [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates. Inventory decreases, but there is an oversupply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to upstream cost fluctuations [7]. - Glass oscillates strongly. Cold - repair may compress capacity, and cost support may lift prices [7].

Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - Overnight, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, reaching the lowest level since the week of April 12, 2025. The economy shows resilience, with gold fluctuating and silver relatively strong. Russia has received the latest version of the US - Ukraine peace plan, but it's too early to say an agreement is imminent. Due to uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, precious metals are in high - level oscillations waiting for a directional breakthrough [1]. - On the first day of the platinum - palladium futures listing, speculative funds pushed up the market in the short term. Compared with the spot price, platinum - palladium futures were significantly overvalued, and the domestic platinum - palladium futures had a lower cost - effectiveness for further long positions. As funds returned to rationality, the market rose and then fell, with sharp intraday fluctuations. On Friday, platinum - palladium options will be listed, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility under high - volatility conditions [2]. Summary by Related Topics Peace Talks Situation - US: Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the US - proposed peace plan was said to borrow from Russian documents; an alleged leaked conversation showed the US Middle - East envoy's suggestion to Russia; US Secretary of State Rubio told European allies that the US hopes to reach a peace agreement before providing security guarantees to Ukraine [3]. - Ukraine: Denied in principle agreeing to the US peace plan [3]. - Europe: EU officials called for continued pressure on Russia, submitted legal texts on using frozen Russian assets, and opposed restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces; German Defense Minister said Ukraine should not be forced to cede territory unilaterally [3]. - Russia: Representatives had meetings in Abu Dhabi; Russia received the latest version of the US peace plan; it's too early to conclude a peace agreement; Russia - US relations are in the early stage of normalization, and Russia won't make concessions on key issues [3]. US - Japan Relations - Trump criticized Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae during a call, asking her not to provoke China on the Taiwan Strait issue. Japanese officials found this information "worrisome". Trump asked Kaochi to soften her tone but did not pressure her to withdraw her remarks [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts [2][3][4] - Different commodities show different trends, such as some in range - bound oscillations, some facing supply - demand imbalances, and others affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [14][20][21] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still a downward drive in the long - term. The market faces a greater inventory build - up expectation in Q4 and Q1 next year. The near - term risk is Russia's stance on the new peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost - end increase. High - sulfur fuel oil may be supported by short - term supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China improved, and inventory declined. The December production plan decreased, and demand will seasonally decline. The spot price is supported at 3000 yuan/ton, but there is medium - to - long - term pressure [22] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose to $11,000, and SHFE copper followed. The probability of a US rate cut next month increased to 85%, boosting copper prices. Short - term trading should focus on volume [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose slightly. After the price correction last week, downstream restocked at low prices. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price is in high - level oscillations [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December increased to 84%, and the support at the bottom is strong due to the decline in TC. However, the domestic demand outlook is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate between 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel rebounded, but the market sentiment was cold. Stainless steel inventory decreased, but the cost support weakened. The fundamental situation is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose to $38,000, and SHFE tin followed with increased positions. The short - term probability of a further rise increased [11] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The night - session of the Dalian soybean meal futures followed the US soybean trend and showed a stabilizing trend. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is at a high level. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina [35] - **Corn**: The night - session of corn futures continued to correct. North port corn prices are firm, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The inventory of downstream industries is low, and the replenishment intention is increasing. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is technically strong, and short - selling on highs is recommended [39] - **Palm Oil & Soybean Oil**: The marginal negative factors for palm oil have eased, and the change in palm oil may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is weak due to the weak spot market expectation. The 02 - month contract may have some recovery space if the cargo volume continues to recover. The far - month contract is under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is abundant, but the concentrated release of downstream demand has improved the trading atmosphere. However, the supply - surplus pattern is expected to continue [23] - **Methanol**: The near - month contract of methanol rose, and the spread strengthened. The overseas production reduction is being realized, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long unilaterally or do a positive spread [24] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in an oscillating trend. The export situation has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand situation is still high - supply and low - demand. Caustic soda is in a weak operation with high supply and low demand [28] - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The sales of glass in Shahe improved, and the price rose slightly. The production capacity may be further compressed. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be considered [32][34] - **Stock Index & Treasury Bond**: The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, and the market is waiting for the resonance of geopolitical situation easing and Fed rate - cut expectation. Treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is worried about bond repayment risks [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - **Asphalt**: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - **Zinc**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - **Methanol**: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - **Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - **Eggs**: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - **Cotton**: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - **Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line)**: Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]