Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pig slaughter volume is increasing, and the spot price is oscillating. The pressure on subsequent pig slaughter volume is still significant, and the short - term pig market still faces certain pressure. The upside space is relatively limited, mainly affected by the supply - side impact on prices after the decline in inventory [3][5]. - The futures price of pigs shows a downward trend, mainly oscillating. The short - term futures near - month contracts are supported, but in the long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor, and the futures are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, the pig prices across the country are oscillating. The average spot price is 10.06 yuan, an increase of 0.02 yuan compared with yesterday. The prices in most regions show a downward trend, with the largest decline in Hebei at - 0.17 yuan, and only a few regions such as Hunan, Sichuan, and Guangdong showing an increase [3]. Futures Price - The futures prices of all contracts are showing a downward trend. For example, LH01 dropped by 20, LH03 dropped by 40, and LH11 dropped by 50 [3]. Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price this week is 347, a decrease of 1 compared with last week; the sow price is 1549, an increase of 2 compared with last week [3]. Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 237.98 yuan, a decrease of 78.33 yuan compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 58.89 yuan, a decrease of 79.72 yuan compared with yesterday [3]. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today is 136,430 heads, a decrease of 33 heads compared with yesterday [3]. Big and Small Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remains unchanged at 0.61; the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.02 to 0.15; the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs increased by 0.06 to 0.56; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.04 to 0.71 [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to mainly wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Meal Daily Report - March 10, 2026" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Date: March 10, 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures declined due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. South American selling pressure increased, but the overall impact was limited. Macro factors were the main influence on the market [3]. - Domestic soybean meal futures also declined significantly, affected by the drop in crude oil prices and limited cost - side support. Soybean and soybean meal inventories remained at relatively high levels [3]. - Rapeseed meal futures also declined significantly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was stronger in the near - term and weaker in the far - term. The inter - month spread of soybean meal was stronger, while that of rapeseed meal declined due to expected supply increases [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean ending stocks remained around 350 million bushels. Export inspection data was average, and the overall supply - demand situation was relatively loose [4]. - In South America, some institutions lowered Brazil's soybean production, mainly in the southern Rio Grande do Sul state. However, the impact on the final output was expected to be limited. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing were good, with significant export growth, but the subsequent crushing drive might be limited. Argentina's old - crop demand was good, with increased crushing and exports, but the new - crop production decreased due to weather disturbances [4]. Domestic Market - Domestic spot supply was gradually tightening. Oil mill operating rates might decline after a short - term increase. Market transactions were average, and inventories were decreasing. As of March 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.833 million tons, the operating rate was 50.47%, soybean inventory was 5.7267 million tons (a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 54.73% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons (an increase of 8.46% from the previous week and an increase of 28.27% year - on - year) [5]. - Domestic rapeseed meal demand was average. Oil mill operating rates increased, but overall supply remained low. Particle rapeseed meal inventory was still at a relatively high level, and there was still supply pressure. As of the week of March 6, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 121,000 tons (a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons (an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week) [5]. Group 4: Logical Analysis - US soybeans were greatly affected by international crude oil, and the decline increased today. The main influencing factor might be related to biodiesel. The impact of fundamentals on US soybeans was gradually decreasing [6]. - South American quotes were slightly adjusted, but the overall change was limited. It would take time for inland pressure to be transmitted to the export market [6]. - The domestic soybean meal fundamental outlook was bearish, but the main influencing factor was still macro. When crude oil prices were strong, the decline of the futures price was restricted. The uncertainty mainly lay in future soybean and soybean meal supply, but the current high inventory was expected to limit the impact. The unilateral and inter - month spreads of soybean meal were under pressure due to the expected tightening of soybean supply [6]. - Domestic rapeseed meal generally followed soybean meal. Although the supply of rapeseed increased, the inventory was still relatively low, and the price was not likely to drop significantly. The international market price was high, and future demand might improve. Rapeseed meal was expected to be strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal would fluctuate widely. The inter - month spreads were expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Arbitrage: Narrow the spread of MRM09 [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 6: Price and Spread Data Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, different contracts (01, 05, 09) had different closing prices and price changes. Spot basis in different regions (Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, Rizhao) also changed [3]. - For rapeseed meal, different contracts (01, 05, 09) had different closing prices and price changes. Spot basis in different regions (Nantong, Guangdong, Guangxi) also changed [3]. Inter - month Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 93 (down 4 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 49 (up 5 from the previous day), and the 91 - spread was - 44 (down 1 from the previous day) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was - 23 (down 2 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 40 (down 11 from the previous day), and the 91 - spread was 63 (up 13 from the previous day) [3]. Cross - variety Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 05 contract was 571 (up from the previous day), and for the 09 contract was 580 (down from the previous day). The oil - meal ratio for the 01 contract was 2.840 (down from the previous day) [3]. Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 573 (up 49 from the previous day), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 130 (down 21 from the previous day), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 933 (up 18 from the previous day) [3] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, for the May shipment, the spot pressing profit was - 76.35, a decrease of 12.18 from the previous day [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and its downstream products are closely related to the production, processing, transportation, and consumption of most agricultural products. Fluctuations in crude oil prices can impact the cost and supply - demand balance of agricultural products, thereby affecting their prices. The prices of crude oil and most agricultural product futures are strongly correlated. [3][8] - If crude oil prices remain strong in the near future, products such as oils, sugar, and cotton are likely to continue to perform strongly. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade later, products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn may face greater downward pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Correlation between Crude Oil and Agricultural Product Futures - Crude oil has a strong correlation with the prices of agricultural products that can provide bioenergy, such as oils, soybeans, soybean and rapeseed meal, corn, cotton, and wheat. Due to differences in domestic and international market environments, the correlation between crude oil and Zhengzhou sugar is lower than that of raw sugar. Crude oil has a certain correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, and little correlation with apples and pigs. [8] - Based on the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil prices and the closing prices of domestic and international agricultural product futures, crude oil has the strongest correlation with domestic three major oils, soybeans (No. 2), soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and overseas products like US soybeans, US soybean oil, US corn, US cotton, US wheat, and Malaysian palm oil, with correlation coefficients generally reaching 0.7. It has a relatively strong correlation with domestic soybeans (No. 1), corn, corn starch, cotton, and overseas US soybean meal and No. 11 sugar, with correlation coefficients between 0.5 and 0.7. The correlation coefficients between crude oil and the prices of eggs and peanuts are 0.44 and 0.35 respectively, and those with apples and pigs are 0.1 and 0.08 respectively. [9] 2. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Oil and Oilseed Market - In the agricultural product futures market, the oil and oilseed sector has the strongest correlation with crude oil prices. The transmission medium is biodiesel. When crude oil prices rise or are high, the production and sales of biodiesel are expected to increase, leading to increased demand for vegetable oils and tighter supply - demand balance, thus enhancing the upward momentum of oil prices. When crude oil prices fall or are low, the opposite occurs. The BOHO and POGO indicators are used to judge the price advantage of biodiesel. The production and sales of biodiesel are also greatly affected by government policies. [11] - In 2024, the total biodiesel production of major producing and consuming countries was about 48.3 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Biodiesel consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil accounted for 18.9%, 19.78%, and 25% of their respective global production, and the total consumption of the three vegetable oils by biodiesel accounted for 20% of their total production. [14] - Soybeans and soybean meal, as raw materials and related products of soybean oil, also have a strong correlation with crude oil prices. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of domestic soybean meal may face a greater decline. Oils are likely to follow crude oil and perform strongly before the trend of crude oil prices reverses. [15] 3. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Cotton Market - Crude oil affects the cotton market through substitution effects, production cost transmission, and macro - sentiment. The medium is chemical fiber. The correlation coefficients between crude oil prices and PTA, MEG, and PF prices are 0.64, 0.38, and 0.81 respectively. Chemical fiber and cotton are strong substitutes. When crude oil prices are low, the cost of chemical fiber is low, and its substitution for cotton increases, putting downward pressure on cotton prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices are high. [22] - Since 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating strongly, driven by the expected tightening of global cotton supply - demand, the expected decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the arrival of the traditional peak season, and the rise in crude oil prices. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will continue to benefit cotton prices. If the positive factors fade, Zhengzhou cotton may be more resilient. [24] 4. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Sugar Market - The medium connecting crude oil and the sugar market is sugar - based ethanol. When crude oil prices are low, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, and sugar production will increase, leading to a looser sugar supply and downward pressure on sugar prices. When crude oil prices are high, the opposite occurs. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and No. 11 sugar prices is 0.52, indicating a strong correlation. [30] - Due to the mainly edible use of domestic sugar and the relatively low proportion of imported sugar, the correlation between Zhengzhou sugar and crude oil prices is low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.25. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will benefit sugar prices. If the positive factors fade, the impact on Zhengzhou sugar may be limited. [33][35] 5. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Corn Market - Crude oil price changes have a great impact on the supply - demand balance of the corn market. When crude oil prices fall, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, reducing corn demand and putting downward pressure on corn prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices rise. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and CBOT corn prices is 0.75, and that between WTI crude oil and domestic corn prices is 0.65. The correlation coefficient between domestic and US corn prices is 0.84. [37][39] - If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of corn may face downward pressure due to factors such as phased grain sales pressure, policy - based grain supply, and wheat substitution pressure. [39] 6. Correlation between Crude Oil and Other Agricultural Product Markets - Crude oil has a certain positive correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, with correlation coefficients of 0.44 and 0.35 respectively. The correlation with eggs is mainly due to transportation costs and macro - sentiment. The correlation with peanuts is due to the impact of crude oil on oils and transportation costs. [43][46] - Apples and pigs are self - produced and self - sold products, with little correlation with crude oil prices, and their correlation coefficients are 0.11 and 0.08 respectively. [46]

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 739.0 | 741.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | -45.0 | -43.5 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 784.0 | 784.5 | -0.5 | I05-I09 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 757.0 | 758.0 | -1.0 | I09-I01 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 769 | 760 | 9 | 835 | 86 | 42 | 69 | | 纽曼粉 | 769 | 760 | 9 | 841 | 92 | 49 | 75 | | 麦克粉 | 762 | 756 | 6 | 842 | 93 | 49 | 76 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of apples is strong. The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 18.11 million tons, with a decline of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season. Although the apple price is relatively high this season, the pre - Spring Festival sales and out - of - storage situation is okay. From March to April after the Spring Festival is a relatively empty window period for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple sales situation has improved, with the inventory reduction speed accelerating compared with last week. With March entering the delivery month, the market pays attention to whether cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts again. The fundamentals of the May apple contract are strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 110.41, with the next - working - day price at 110.56, a decrease of 0.15. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.94, with the next - working - day price at 8.00, a decrease of 0.06 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: For AP01, the price is 8573, up 33 from the previous close; AP05 is 10287, down 29 from the previous close; AP10 is 8637, down 15 from the previous close. The spreads between different contracts also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 573, down 33 from the previous trading day; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2287, up 29 from the previous trading day; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 637.0, up 15 from the previous trading day [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Apple Market News - Transaction Logic**: As mentioned above, the apple fundamentals are strong, with low inventory, good sales, and market attention on delivery - related issues [5]. - **Transaction Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, considering that the price of the May contract is already high, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is also recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Other Data**: As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 527.53 million tons, a decrease of 25.39 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7 million tons, with a decline of 4.1%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume in December 2025 was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The apple prices in Shandong are stable, while those in some areas of Gansu and Shaanxi have increased slightly [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, AP contract main - force basis, spreads between different contracts, apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - of - storage volume [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise in oil and gas prices drives up the price of thermal coal as an alternative energy source, which in turn supports coking coal. The price center of coking coal is passively lifted, and funds and sentiment flow into coking coal futures, pushing up its price. Currently, the fundamental factors of coking coal are secondary, and funds and sentiment amplify price elasticity. Before the conflict eases or ends, coking coal prices may follow the upward trend of oil and gas. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and then go long on dips [4]. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts all increased. For example, the JM01 coking coal futures price rose from 1426 to 1468, and the J01 coke futures price rose from 1855.5 to 1906 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Some coking coal and coke spot prices increased. For instance, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the port increased by 40 to 1060, and the price of port quasi - first - grade (wet quenching) coke increased by 10 to 1480 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of coking coal and coke also changed. For example, the Mongolian 5 coking coal warehouse receipt increased by 47 to 1221, and the port spot (wet quenching) coke warehouse receipt increased by 11 to 1591 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of coking coal and coke showed different values for different contracts and varieties [2]. - **Transportation Prices**: The transportation prices of coking coal and coke remained stable [2]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: It is recommended to wait and see due to large fluctuations. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, one can also go long on dips. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [5]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Related Prices**: The report provides the warehouse receipt prices of coke and coking coal, such as the 1591 yuan/ton for Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet quenching) coke warehouse receipt and 1170 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal warehouse receipt [8]. - **Important Information** - Some coal prices in the Shanxi Lvliang area rebounded. For example, the price of medium - sulfur lean coal increased by 50 to 1170 yuan/ton, and the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 to 1190 yuan/ton [10]. - The import of thermal coal continued to rise. The bid price of 3800 - calorie coal was 69.72 US dollars CIF, and the terminal had not responded. The arrival cost increased significantly, and attention should be paid to RKAB and the international situation [10]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the coke comprehensive absolute price index, Mongolian 5 clean coal price, coking coal basis, coke price index, etc., showing the price trends from 2021 to 2026 [12][14][18]

研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 10 日 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15655 | -5 | 5,535 | 2847 | 14,642 | 1075 | | CF05合约 | 15285 | -10 | 912,981 | 623052 | 749,561 | -15519 | | CF09合约 | 15340 | -5 | 262,728 | 188225 | 225,053 | 9964 | | CY01合约 | 20250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 21280 | 75 | 24053 | 14667 | 14518 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 行情研判 【重要资讯】 1. 沐甜 10 日讯 据了解，3 月 5-9 日广西新增 3 家糖厂收榨，目前收榨的 6 家糖厂其中 3 家钦州，北海、南宁、崇左各 1 家。截至目前不完全统计，25/26 榨季广西已有 6 家糖厂 收榨，同比减少 50 家;收榨产能 4.2 万吨/日，同比减少 43.1 万吨/日。预计本周广西还有 10 家左右糖厂收。 白糖日报 2026 年 3 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/3/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,431 | -18 | -0.33% | 102,808 | -64144 | 182,370 | 8681 | | SR01 | | 5,556 | -1 | -0.02% | 4,555 | -4710 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg prices have weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3680, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3412, down 15; JD09 closed at 3835, down 17 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 268, up 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 423, up 2; the 09 - 01 spread was 155, down 20 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.00; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01. Similar data are provided for 05 and 09 contracts [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.11 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [2][7]. 3. Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices and Market Conditions**: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed. Beijing's egg prices rose, and the prices in different regions showed various trends, with the market in a state of oscillatory consolidation and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million (about 50% of the national total), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of the week of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/feather from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of March 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7]. 4. Trading Logic - The good early - stage profit has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices, the overall reduction has weakened. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].