Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The Sino-US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, and the EC futures market continues to bet on the subsequent freight rate trend. Pay attention to the possible improvement of tariffs on shipments. On October 27, EC2512 closed at 1775 points, down 3.06% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market today was 1312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [6]. - The spot freight rate spread among major shipping companies has widened again. Considering the improvement of long-term contract cargo receipts, the spot freight rate center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually increase from November to December, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The supply capacity in December will increase slightly. The Sino-US ship sanctions will bring cost increases and short-term supply chain disruptions. The progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino-US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased [7][9]. - Trading strategy: Hold the long position of EC2512 and pay attention to the Palestine-Israel negotiation, Sino-US tariff negotiation, and port congestion. For arbitrage, take a wait-and-see approach [10][11]. Group 2: Industry News - Sino-US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached a preliminary consensus on issues such as export control, suspension and extension of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl, and ship fees [12]. - The United States signed a critical minerals agreement with Thailand and will maintain a 19% tariff on Thailand; reached a trade agreement framework with Vietnam and will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam; Trump suspended tariffs during the meeting with the Brazilian president [12]. - The United States threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canada, and Canada expressed dissatisfaction [12]. - Israel approved the entry of an Egyptian technical team to search for hostages, and Palestinian factions agreed to establish an independent technical bureaucracy to govern the Gaza Strip, and Hamas will transfer administrative control to a temporary committee [13][14][15]. Group 3: Data Summary Futures Disk | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1,130.9 | -6.9 | -0.61% | 1,377.0 | 68.54% | 3,428.0 | -20.13% | | EC2512 | 1,775.0 | -56.0 | -3.06% | 27,748.0 | -20.98% | 27,995.0 | -7.45% | | EC2602 | 1,571.6 | -29.4 | -1.84% | 6,174.0 | 55.48% | 13,138.0 | 14.15% | | EC2604 | 1,178.8 | -0.8 | -0.07% | 2,045.0 | 18.48% | 14,146.0 | -0.55% | | EC2606 | 1,387.1 | -10.8 | -0.77% | 109 | -61.75% | 1,371 | -0.44% | | EC2608 | 1,480.3 | -28.7 | -1.90% | 138 | -22.91% | 1,249 | 2.63% | [4] Monthly Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC10 - EC12 | -644 | 49.1 | EC10 - EC02 | -441 | 22.5 | | EC12 - EC02 | 203 | -26.6 | EC10 - EC04 | -48 | -6.1 | | EC12 - EC04 | 596 | -55.2 | EC12 - EC06 | 388 | -45.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | 393 | -28.6 | EC04 - EC06 | -208 | 10.0 | [4] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1312.71 | 15.11% | -40.54% | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 1107.32 | 28.24% | -60.70% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1403.46 | 7.11% | -31.94% | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3755 | 5.64% | -15.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 2153 | 11.21% | -54.44% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2851 | 1.40% | -32.98% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 3032 | 6.27% | -38.98% | SCFI: Shanghai - South America (USD/TEU) | 2619 | -1.47% | -58.00% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1246 | 8.82% | -36.10% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 3.31% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 1764 | 9.36% | -23.70% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 5.59% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 1423 | 14.02% | 19.28% | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 466 | 3.79% | 10.95% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1385 | 5.64% | -31.64% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | 0.00% | -4.17% | [4] Fuel Costs | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.86 | | -0.38% | -14.59% | 64.92 | -0.52% | -14.0% | [4]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3180 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (+20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Market trends: The black metal sector continued to strengthen. Steel spot trading was average overall, with better trading at lower prices. Last week's data showed a decline in hot metal production but still at a high level, with an increase in hot-rolled coil and rebar production. Steel demand has recovered recently, and inventory has shifted from factory warehouses to social warehouses. Rebar destocking has accelerated, and hot-rolled coils have started to destock. Steel apparent demand has increased [5] - Influencing factors: The recovery of steel demand is due to the drop in temperature, the rise in thermal coal prices, frequent coal mine accidents, and the speculation of environmental governance in Wuhai coal mines, which has led to the recent strength of coking coal. Currently, steel valuations are low, and steel mill profits are shrinking, providing some support at the bottom. However, plate inventory is high in the fourth quarter, with slower capital release, slow downstream payment collection, and a year-on-year decline in the number of projects, so steel prices still face pressure [5] - Policy impact: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" has a long-term positive impact on steel but a limited short-term impact. After the news was released, the market showed some follow-up increases [5] - Short-term outlook: Steel prices will remain range-bound in the short term. They will continue to fluctuate with coking coal, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is pressure at the top [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1-5 positive spread and the long position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - Environmental restrictions in Tangshan: Due to environmental protection requirements, Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production limit on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from the 27th. As of October 24, the daily average hot metal production in Tangshan was 396,900 tons. If the blast furnace production is limited by 30%, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by 91,000 tons, and a total of 409,500 tons of hot metal production will be affected in 4.5 days. The impact on construction steel mills is limited, with TSDH expected to have a daily average impact of 8,000 tons on hot metal. The overall production of the rebar production line remains basically unchanged, still at a level of 8,000 - 10,000 tons per day [6][7] - APEC meeting: President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 30 to November 1 and pay a state visit to South Korea. Regarding the issue of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the two sides are in close communication, and China will release further information in a timely manner [7]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5564 | 22 | 128 | 132349 | -7389 | 174287 | -7891 | | SM主力合约 | 5802 | 30 | 64 | 130341 | -87247 | 345980 | -4913 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5320 | -30 | 40 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: October 27, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,495.38 points, up 1.03%. The main contract, IM2512, rose 0.75% to close at 7,322.6 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 214,742 lots, down 9,711 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 358,844 lots, up 9,755 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 172.78 points to the spot, down 51.54 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -15.95% [5]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,495.38 | 1.03% | 26,534 | 8% | 4,582 | 15% | - | - | - | | IM2511 | 7,399.40 | 0.76% | 45,173 | 5% | 670 | 6% | 72,266 | 2,184 | 128 | | IM2512 | 7,322.60 | 0.75% | 137,585 | -7% | 2,021 | -6% | 187,588 | 4,103 | 330 | | IM2603 | 7,105.20 | 0.78% | 23,471 | -3% | 335 | -1% | 78,846 | 2,254 | 134 | | IM2606 | 6,891.60 | 0.86% | 8,513 | -9% | 118 | -7% | 20,144 | 1,214 | 33 | [4] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.71 points, 0.74 points, 1.23 points, and 45.97 points respectively [5]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,495.38 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,399.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.71 | -95.98 | -1.3% | -18.2% | | Next Month | 7,322.60 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 0.74 | -172.78 | -2.3% | -15.9% | | Quarter 1 | 7,105.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 1.23 | -390.18 | -5.3% | -13.8% | | Quarter 2 | 6,891.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 45.97 | -603.78 | -8.2% | -13.4% | [14] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IM2511, IM2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [18][20][22] IF Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4,716.02 points, up 1.19%. The main contract, IF2512, rose 1.24% to close at 4,684.4 points [23]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 113,332 lots, down 2,849 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 262,244 lots, up 6,831 lots from the previous day [27]. - The main contract was at a discount of 31.62 points to the spot, down 5.74 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.56% [27]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,716.02 | 1.19% | 26,220 | 26% | 6,727 | 22% | - | - | - | | IF2511 | 4,701.00 | 1.30% | 26,252 | 8% | 370 | 9% | 41,727 | 1,286 | 71 | | IF2512 | 4,684.40 | 1.24% | 71,074 | -4% | 998 | -3% | 157,785 | 4,370 | 266 | | IF2603 | 4,656.00 | 1.26% | 12,499 | -12% | 174 | -11% | 56,157 | 314 | 94 | | IF2606 | 4,620.60 | 1.40% | 3,507 | 2% | 49 | 3% | 6,575 | 861 | 11 | [23] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 1.05 points, 1.89 points, 7.02 points, and 37.42 points respectively [32]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 4,716.02 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 4,701.00 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.05 | -15.02 | -0.3% | -4.5% | | Next Month | 4,684.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.89 | -31.62 | -0.7% | -4.6% | | Quarter 1 | 4,656.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.02 | -60.02 | -1.3% | -3.2% | | Quarter 2 | 4,620.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 37.42 | -95.42 | -2.0% | -3.2% | [32] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IF2511, IF2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [36][38][39] IC Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 500 was 7,379.39 points, up 1.67%. The main contract, IC2512, rose 1.76% to close at 7,254.4 points [41]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 136,694 lots, down 1,034 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,585 lots, up 8,981 lots from the previous day [42]. - The main contract was at a discount of 124.99 points to the spot, down 26.26 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.65% [42]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,379.39 | 1.67% | 23,205 | 19% | 4,718 | 29% | - | - | - | | IC2511 | 7,310.40 | 1.74% | 27,275 | -2% | 398 | 0% | 49,174 | 1,344 | 86 | | IC2512 | 7,254.40 | 1.76% | 87,202 | 3% | 1,264 | 5% | 140,233 | 5,789 | 244 | | IC2603 | 7,083.00 | 1.74% | 16,929 | -12% | 240 | -10% | 51,880 | 409 | 88 | | IC2606 | 6,903.40 | 1.87% | 5,288 | -8% | 73 | -6% | 11,298 | 1,439 | 19 | [41] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 1.83 points, 1.92 points, 3.7 points, and 60 points respectively [42]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,379.39 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,310.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.83 | -68.99 | -0.9% | -13.2% | | Next Month | 7,254.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.92 | -124.99 | -1.7% | -11.6% | | Quarter 1 | 7,083.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 3.70 | -296.39 | -4.0% | -10.5% | | Quarter 2 | 6,903.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 60.00 | -475.99 | -6.5% | -10.5% | [51] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IC2511, IC2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [56][58][60] IH Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3,069.53 points, up 0.78%. The main contract, IH2512, rose 0.74% to close at 3,066.8 points [62]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 56,298 lots, down 2,681 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 98,162 lots, up 2,833 lots from the previous day [62]. - The main contract was at a discount of 2.73 points to the spot, down 5.51 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.6% [63]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,069.53 | 0.78% | 7,041 | 28% | 1,853 | 19% | - | - | - | | IH2511 | 3,067.40 | 0.77% | 11,960 | -8% | 110 | -7% | 15,335 | 218 | 17 | | IH2512 | 3,066.80 | 0.74% | 37,476 | -5% | 345 | -4% | 65,887 | 1,268 | 73 | | IH2603 | 3,069.20 | 0.77% | 5,043 | 3% | 46 | 3% | 14,472 | 850 | 16 | | IH2606 | 3,067.40 | 0.80% | 1,819 | 13% | 17 | 14% | 2,468 | 497 | 3 | [62] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0.59 points, 1.43 points, 7.32 points, and 26.56 points respectively [63]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 3,069.53 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 3,067.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.59 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -1.0% | | Next Month | 3,066.80 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.43 | -2.73 | -0.1% | -0.6% | | Quarter 1 | 3,069.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.32 | -0.33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Quarter 2 | 3,067.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 26.56 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -0.1% | [73] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IH2511, IH2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [77][79][

研究所 贵金属研发报告 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属窄幅波动，伦敦金当前交投于 4078 美元附 近，伦敦银当前交投于 48.3 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 1.24%，报 934.14 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收跌 0.47%，报 11394 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走高，当前交投于 98.92 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样走高，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元高开高走，当前交投于 7.11 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.中美贸易谈判：新华社消息，当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方 牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to the weak fundamentals of oils and fats and the relatively weak macro - environment, oils and fats will fluctuate weakly. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, its price mainly follows the overall trend of oils and fats, and the basis and monthly spread of soybean oil are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited. US soybean oil is oscillating at a low level, and the bottom support may be at 48 cents per pound. - In the medium term, if the biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are implemented smoothly and the macro - environment improves, oils and fats have great potential for an upward trend and may show an oscillating upward movement, and soybean oil is also expected to follow the upward trend [37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Smooth Sino - US Negotiations, US Soybeans Expected to Be Exported to China - On October 26, the Sino - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, and China would purchase a large amount of US soybeans. The CBOT soybean series rose significantly on that day, while the domestic soybean series showed limited movements. - Currently, the US has an average tariff of 57.6% on China, and China has an average tariff of 32.6% on the US, with a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. If the two sides cancel reciprocal tariffs, China's tariff on US soybeans may be reduced to 13%, and if all previously imposed tariffs are cancelled, it could return to 3%. However, even at a 3% tariff, there is no crushing profit for near - term shipments in China this year. Whether China will purchase US soybeans in Q1 next year depends on tariff adjustments and CNF prices. - If a large - scale US soybean purchase agreement is reached, China will gradually purchase US soybeans at appropriate times and prices in the future. Although short - term crushing profit is not suitable, the supply expectation will be looser, and the soybean supply gap in Q1 next year may be repaired [3][4]. 2. India's Massive Increase in Soybean Oil Imports, Inflection Point of Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory Approaching - Since August this year, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Brazil's domestic crushing volume this year is lower than last year but slightly higher than the 5 - year average, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in the future. From January to August, Brazil's soybean oil consumption was lower than last year, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in cumulative consumption, while the export volume increased by 15% year - on - year, with a 54% increase in exports to India, accounting for 70% of total exports. As of August, Brazil's soybean oil inventory was 520,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period. Argentina's exports of soybean oil to India increased by 11% year - on - year, and as of early September, its inventory was 220,000 tons, at a low level in the same period. The combined inventory of Brazil and Argentina is above the 5 - year average and higher than last year [10]. - Due to the low international soybean - palm oil price difference this year, India's import profit of soybean oil has increased, leading to a significant increase in imports, with a 42% year - on - year increase in cumulative imports in the 24/25 fiscal year as of September, approaching 4.4 million tons. It is expected that imports in October will remain at a relatively high level in the same period, and the annual imports may reach 4.8 million tons, meeting the market expectation of 4.4 - 4.9 million tons. The market also expects that India's edible oil imports will increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with a limited year - on - year increase in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, which is beneficial to soybean oil prices [19]. - As of September 29, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, and the market expects it to exceed 70%. Brazil's soybean sowing is faster than in previous years, with a sowing rate of 21.7% as of October 18, compared with 17.6% in the same period last year. The new - crop planting area is expected to increase, and the general expectation for the 2025/26 production is 175 - 179 million tons. - Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons or 3.25% from the previous week. The soybean arrival peak has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decline slightly, with an inflection point likely to occur at the end of October. However, the overall supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, and the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited [26]. 3. Positive Expectation of Oils and Fats Biodiesel Policy, Potential Upward Momentum Still Exists - In the US biodiesel sector, in June this year, the EPA proposed to increase the mandatory blending of biomass diesel in the US in 2026 to 5.61 billion gallons, much higher than the previous market expectation of 4.65 - 5.25 billion gallons, an increase of 2.26 billion gallons compared to 2025. If calculated based on this blending volume, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may exceed 7.4 million tons, with an increase of 1.4 - 1.5 million tons. In August, the EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications for SRE, with a total exemption of about 5.34 billion gallons of RINs from 2016 - 2024, but only the exemption quotas from 2023 - 2024 have actual compliance value. In September, the EPA proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted under the SRE plan to large refineries. Although the final RVO and SRE plans are uncertain, it is certain that the US biodiesel demand will increase next year, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [30]. - In Brazil, the National Energy Policy Council has increased the biodiesel blending ratio from 12% to 14% since March 2024 and plans to increase it by 1% annually. Originally, the B16 policy was expected to be implemented in March next year, which is estimated to bring an increase of 550,000 - 700,000 tons in biodiesel consumption and about 400,000 - 500,000 tons in soybean oil consumption. However, the Brazilian government may postpone the implementation of the B16 policy due to incomplete feasibility studies. As of August, the biodiesel blending rate was about 15.7%, slightly exceeding the B15 target. The price difference between biodiesel and diesel is narrowing but still negative, which means there is still profit in biodiesel production. Even if the B16 policy is postponed, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may still increase [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polysilicon, the supply slightly exceeds demand in October, with a small inventory build - up. The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company. However, the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - For industrial silicon, the current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In October, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. The polysilicon output in October is about 130,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up. The current polysilicon inventory is about 500,000 tons, including about 250,000 tons in upstream inventory, about 200,000 tons in downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons in warehouse receipts and trader inventory [5]. - **Trading logic**: The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company, but the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. There is buying power for warehouse receipts below 50000 in the 11 contract. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold long positions for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy; buy call options [6]. Industrial silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6%. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [7][15][26]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. - **Trading strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8920 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton to varying degrees [12]. - **Downstream demand data**: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6% [15]. - **Industrial silicon output**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The number of open furnaces decreased by 4 this week. Yunnan and Sichuan silicon plants may shut down furnaces on a large scale at the end of the month, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon will start to decrease next week [26]. - **Industrial silicon inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [27]. - **Related product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon weakened this week. The prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly, and the operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. The raw material prices remained stable [33][37][46][49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon increased. The prices of some models of silicon wafers, batteries, and some components decreased [54][60][64]. - **Component fundamentals**: Currently, domestic component orders are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in October decreased slightly to 46GW compared with September [73]. - **Battery fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 7.1GW, which is moderate. With the downward adjustment of the component production schedule in October, the battery production schedule increased to 56GW [77]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output of silicon wafers increased to 14.73GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 18.47GW. The silicon wafer production schedule in October increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September [82]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 258,000 tons. It is expected that the polysilicon output in October will be about 130,000 tons. The Southwest production capacity of Tongwei Co., Ltd. has started to reduce the load, and it is expected that the output in November will decrease by 20,000 tons. There are also rumors of potential production cuts at its Inner Mongolia base, which may affect the output by 4000 - 5000 tons [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

原木现货趋弱，关注进口报价落地情况 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面：本周原木现货基本面呈"供需双增、价格承压"的弱稳格局：到港43.8万方环比再增5%，13港库存292万方虽降2.3%但绝 对值仍高，日均出库6.32万方环比回升10.3%却主要由江苏低价放货带动；辐射松主港报价持平760-780元/方，无节材已跌20元/方，云 杉因缺货独涨30元。11月外盘报120美元↑5美元。 【逻辑分析】 成本方面：11月新西兰辐射松较10月成交中枢抬升5美元，对应进口完税成本上移约40元/方，对盘面形成刚性支撑；但现货端无节材率 先下跌20元/方，江苏、山东主港 ...

铅周报：关注资金面影响 铅价或冲高回落 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，近期国内铅精矿供需仍处紧平衡态势，国产铅精矿加工费维持350元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费-125美元/干吨。本周铅价上涨后，再生铅炼厂废电瓶采 购价格并未明显跟涨，回收商观望铅价走势后惜售情绪浓厚。再生铅周度开工率维持增势，原料需求亦维持增势。随再生铅冶炼厂开工提升，后期含铅废料价格预计仍有上涨 空间。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率率为67.57%，较上周下滑0.93%。河南和云南地区的冶炼厂生产整体保持稳定，湖南地区此前检修的某中小规模冶炼厂 ...