Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consulting Number: Z0018635 [3] Key Data Points New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance reached 422.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 379.8 billion yuan [4] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 48.0% [4] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 479.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 57.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 29.9 billion yuan [7] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 55.7% [8] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 94.4 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 560.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 436.1 billion yuan [11] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 49.2% [13] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 111 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 24.1 billion yuan [16] - As of June 29, the treasury bond net financing progress was 50.3% [17] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 671.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 412.1 billion yuan [20] - As of June 29, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 49.8% [21]

Kpler原油库存:季节性去库得以延续 2025/06/30 杨宇 杨家明 童丹丹 从业资格号:F03086737 从业资格号:F3046931 从业资格号:F03142141 投资咨询号:Z0020561 # 投资咨询号: Z0015448 投资咨询号: Z0021744 投资咨询业务资格: 究 证监许可【2012】669 李云旭 尹伊君 陈子昂 员 号 从业资格号:F03141405 从业资格号:F03107980 从业资格号:F03108012 投资咨询号:Z0021671 投资咨询号:Z0021451 投资咨询号:Z0021454 数据点评 Kpler数据显示，6月29日当周全球原油库存大幅回落,主要因在途库存下滑,陆上库存季节性去化 亦得以延续,同比增幅有所放缓。分地区看,中国、俄罗斯、印度、中东库存均有回落,欧洲库存有所 回升。 风险提示:数据修正调整。 全球原油浮仓量 全球原油陆上库存量 单位:百万桶 单位:百万桶 2021年 =2023年 2025年 ·2022年 -2024年 2021年 2022年 2024年 2025年 =2023年 3900 300 3800 250 3700 200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, while maintaining the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Prevail, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" for the medium - and long - term. The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. The upper targets for gold and silver within the year are $3900 - 4000 and $39 - 40 respectively. The weekly ranges to watch are [3200, 3450] for COMEX gold and [32, 35] for COMEX silver [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Trump welcomes the rapid end of the Israel - Iran war and plans to talk with Iranian officials next week to seek an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions [2] - Powell says Trump's tariff plan may cause a one - time price increase, and the Fed will be cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation risks [2] - The US Treasury extends the authorization for extraordinary cash management measures to July 24 to avoid hitting the debt ceiling [2] - Hong Kong releases the Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0, aiming to build a global digital asset center, and will implement a licensing mechanism for stablecoin issuers on August 1 [2] - The US May durable goods orders monthly rate is 16.4%, much higher than the expected 8.5% [2] - The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value is - 0.5%, worse than the expected - 0.20% [2] - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 are 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 [3] Price Logic - As of the close on the 26th, gold prices rose moderately for the second consecutive day, driven by concerns about Fed independence and rate - cut expectations. However, gold failed to break through $3350 per ounce, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum [4][7] - In the Middle East situation, Trump's claim of victory over Iran and the uncertain damage to Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities, along with market caution, suppressed gold prices [7] - US economic data on the 26th night showed stagflation in Q1, with unexpected manufacturing demand and a robust labor market in Q2. The 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury yield spread reached its steepest level since 2021 [7][8] - Despite Trump's plan to replace Powell, the Fed's Goolsbee says it won't affect FOMC independence [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided documents. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint On June 26, 2025, equity index futures declined, while 30 - year CGB rose; metal futures trended strongly, and agricultural product futures fell. The top three gainers were coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal, and the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On June 26, equity index futures declined, 30 - year CGB rose, metal futures were strong, and agricultural product futures fell. Coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal were the top gainers, with coking coal rising 3.6% and positions increasing 7.7% month - on - month, poly - silicon rising 3.5% and positions decreasing 3.7% month - on - month, and silicon metal rising 2.7% and positions increasing 4.8% month - on - month. Rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean were the top decliners, with rapeseed meal falling 2.7% and positions increasing 8.9% month - on - month, soybean meal falling 2.4% and positions decreasing 0.8% month - on - month, and No.2 Soybean falling 1.6% and positions decreasing 12.0% month - on - month [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise - **Silicon Metal**: On June 26, it increased by 2.7% to 7720 yuan/ton. There was news of a furnace shutdown at an enterprise, but the supply - demand contradiction remained unrelieved, keeping silicon prices under pressure. On the supply side, northern large - scale manufacturers resumed production, and southwest China entered the wet season with reduced electricity prices and new capacity launches. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with polysilicon producers cutting output. Social inventories continued to accumulate, but futures prices made the market more cost - effective, and warehouse receipt inventory was liquidated faster, supporting near - month contracts [16][17][18]. - **TSR20**: On June 26, it increased by 2.6% to 12145 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 2.1% to 14040 yuan/ton. External shocks subsided, and prices may follow overall commodity volatility. The trading focus may return to fundamentals, but rubber's fundamentals had limited short - term variables. Supply was affected by the rainy season, and demand was relatively stable in the short - term but weak in expectation. In the third quarter, de - stocking trades may prevent a deep decline [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Rapeseed Meal**: On June 26, it decreased by 2.7% to 2550 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.4% to 2936 yuan/ton. Domestically, soybean meal had both supply and demand growth, while rapeseed meal faced weakening in both. In the short - to - medium term, soybean arrivals were expected to increase, oil mill operating rates would remain high, and soybean meal inventories were rising seasonally. In the long term, breeding sow inventory growth indicated stable and increasing rigid demand for soybean meal, and there were expected supply gaps in the fourth quarter [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU and will strengthen approval work. The NDRC will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in program in July and will launch and intensify the implementation of the equipment renewal loan interest discount policy [38]. 3.2.2 Industry News The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Policy Declaration on Digital Asset Development 2.0". The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to list offset printing paper futures and options [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc., based on the defined rating standards in the report [269]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical factors affecting crude oil will gradually fade, and the market will focus on the US trade war and OPEC+ production plans. Crude oil is expected to remain stable, while the chemical industry may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. Most chemical products have positive basis, and as July approaches, the convergence of futures and spot prices will support these products [1][2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry should be viewed through an oscillating perspective, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The rebound strength is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. After the geopolitical concerns ease, the oil price will return to the supply - surplus fundamental line, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and LPG is expected to oscillate weakly. The overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the market may return to fundamental - driven [9]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of production increase is strong, and the asphalt futures price will continue to decline following crude oil. The asphalt price is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and the fuel oil futures price may continue to decline under pressure. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price will decline following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, and is expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations at a low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: The situation between Iran and Israel has eased, and methanol is expected to oscillate. The support for the futures price from the previous geopolitical situation has weakened, and the domestic market is relatively stable [19]. - **Urea**: Relying on exports to balance the domestic supply - demand gap, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the export situation is favorable [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The supply shock is gradually increasing, but the inventory level is low, and the probability of a downward trend is small. It is recommended that investors conduct short - term range operations [14]. - **PX**: The supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamentals are good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term due to production - cut news [11]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the current situation is still okay, and the cost is relatively strong. It is expected to follow the cost side and show a relatively strong performance in the short term [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is in a healthy state, and the spot processing fee has increased slightly. The processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the upward movement of crude oil drives the energy and chemical market [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The price follows the raw materials, and the production cut has started. The further compression space of the spot processing fee is limited [17]. - **PP**: The oil price oscillates, and PP will follow in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively weak [25]. - **Plastic**: The geopolitical premium has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [24]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and styrene has declined. The supply is returning, and the demand is weakening, but the inventory level is low [13]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is expected to oscillate. The cost center is rising, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The dynamic cost is rising, and caustic soda will oscillate temporarily. The supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 1.17 with a change of - 0.08 [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 242 with a change of 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 98360 [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 246 with a change of - 21 [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific derivatives: - Stock index futures: The outlook is "oscillating, slightly bullish" [7]. - Stock index options: The outlook is "oscillating" [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The outlook is "oscillating" [8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock index futures are in a period of sentiment adjustment, with the market showing signs of weakness after consecutive rises this week, entering a short - term observation period, and it is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [7]. - Stock index options are experiencing a temporary lull in sentiment, and it is advisable to take profits opportunistically. If the market remains oscillating, consider switching to a covered call strategy [2][8]. - Treasury bond futures' sentiment has stabilized to some extent. After recent adjustments, factors such as central bank net injections, non - excessive policy surprises, and potential market speculation on PMI data and central bank bond - buying have contributed. However, caution should still be maintained, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market first rose and then fell. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.28%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index fell nearly 2%. Sectors such as banking and telecommunications rose against the trend, while the sentiment in the non - banking financial sector declined. - The open interest of stock index futures ended three consecutive days of increases, indicating profit - taking by funds. The narrowing of the futures discount may be due to some neutral strategy funds shifting from far - month to near - month hedging, with limited significance for trend prediction. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and the spread between current and next - month contracts changed. The total open interest decreased. - It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying market declined across the board. The CSI 1000 initially performed well in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.45%. - The trading volume of the options market was 5.095 billion yuan, a 31.92% decrease from the previous trading day. The main trading drivers may be profit - taking and the re - entry of sellers. - The continuous increase in the intraday trading volume ratio of call options was interrupted, and the over - heated sentiment cooled. The put - call ratio of open interest in stock index options did not decline significantly, and the sellers were still relatively optimistic, but the decline from the high level was not a good sign historically. - The volatility of each option variety declined after a sharp increase the previous day, returning to the end - of - May level, with room for further decline compared to the beginning of the week. - It is recommended to take profits on directional strategies and switch to a covered call strategy if the market remains oscillating [2][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The T main contract initially rose but then declined, ultimately closing down 0.02%, while the TL main contract rose 0.10%, and the TF and TS main contracts were basically flat. - The central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 203.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity eased, and the DR007 rate slightly declined. - The National Development and Reform Commission's press conference did not bring excessive policy surprises, and the stock - bond seesaw effect that had suppressed the bond market in recent days may have weakened. - As the end of the month approaches, the market may be speculating on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. - For trading strategies, the trend strategy is to expect oscillation; for hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for yield curve strategies, it is more profitable to steepen the curve in the medium term [3][8][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data for the week, including PMI data from the eurozone and the US, the German IFO business climate index, US consumer confidence indices, and US initial and continuing jobless claims [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Hong Kong Dollar: On June 26, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the "weak - side convertibility undertaking" of the linked exchange rate system. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold US dollars and bought 9.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the aggregate balance of the banking system will decrease to 164.1 billion Hong Kong dollars on June 27. Multiple factors led to this situation, which is part of the normal operation of the linked exchange rate system [12]. - China Macro: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and will formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [12]. - Digital Assets: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" on June 26, aiming to make Hong Kong a global innovation center in the digital asset field. The new policy builds on the 2022 declaration, promoting the practical application of tokenization, diversifying application scenarios, and constructing a more vibrant digital asset ecosystem [13][14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report separately lists sections for stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not fully presented in the provided text [15][19][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price trend is weak, but a weak rebound has occurred as prices fall to important cost areas. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties. [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of June 26, the price decline of industrial silicon slowed. Domestic inventory increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 438,500 tons. May production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase but a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. May exports were 55,652 tons, an 8% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year decrease. May new photovoltaic installations were 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month and 388% year - on - year increase. [4] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side news is disturbing, with northwest production rising and southwest entering the wet season. Demand from downstream industries is still weak, and social inventory continues to accumulate. However, the faster decline in futures prices has made the futures more cost - effective, leading to faster clearance of warehouse receipts, which supports the near - month contract. [4] - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices will rebound in the short term, but the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The subsequent price will show an oscillatory trend. [4] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The N - type re - feedstock transaction price is between 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 34,400 yuan/ton. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,600 lots. May exports were 2,097.6 tons, a 66.2% month - on - month increase but a 30% year - on - year decrease. May imports were 793 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month decrease. 1 - 5 months of new photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a 150% year - on - year increase. [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side disturbances have boosted prices. Production is currently low, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year due to the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. [6] - **Outlook**: Polysilicon prices will show wide - range oscillations. [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On June 26, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.02% to 61,500 yuan, and the total position decreased by 10,604 lots to 619,950 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan to 60,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 400 yuan to 59,000 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 620 US dollars/ton. On June 24, the first batch of lithium concentrate from the Ganfeng Goulamina project in Mali was shipped. [7] - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand lack drivers, and prices fluctuate with sentiment. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively flat. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory clearance has slowed down. [8] - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate in the short term. [8]