Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance [6]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing expectations for下半年 policies. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing and service industries grew, and industrial and consumer data showed positive trends [6]. - Asset viewpoint: The domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro** - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index were weak. Economic recovery is limited by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and high oil prices may lead to a hawkish Fed [6]. - **Domestic Macro** - The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced financial support policies. 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local areas, and the remaining will be distributed gradually. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial and service sectors, and consumer spending all showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Viewpoint** - Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, and the long - term weak - dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, with risks of end - of - session stock stampedes and deteriorating dollar liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Selling options requires waiting for a downward inflection point in volatility, with deteriorating option liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with risks of unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are expected to continue short - term adjustments due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations, with attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping** - The container shipping market to Europe is expected to focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials** - **Steel Products**: Inventory is being depleted, with limited fundamental contradictions. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production, and they are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has increased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coke**: A fourth round of price cuts is imminent, and prices are weakly stable. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, and the price decline has slowed. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: The dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's dovish stance, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina futures price has risen. Attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have led to a rise in aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Industry** - **Crude Oil**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will continue to have high volatility. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a strong futures price. Attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [11]. - **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday's performance was differentiated, with soybean oil being strong. Attention should be paid to South American soybean harvests, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Oil mills' inventory accumulation may put pressure on the basis, and the futures - cash market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade disputes [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is low, and the futures and cash prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, macro factors, and weather [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to continue the "import rush" from Southeast Asia until mid-June, accelerate the "import rush" from China in June and weaken it in July, and the mild restocking in the U.S. may end in August. The second quarter may see the peak of China's year-on-year export growth rate for the year, followed by a quarterly decline. Under a neutral assumption, China's annual export year-on-year growth rate may be approximately 1.5%. [2][3] - The outcome of China-U.S. tariff negotiations has influenced the pace of the U.S. "import rush" from China. The progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and economies with close trade ties to China has a significant impact on China's exports. [17][42] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64] - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted from tariffs to U.S. fiscal and credit issues. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. [66] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In April, high reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. led shipping companies to reallocate capacity to other routes, causing a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity. The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to intensify in June and weaken in July. [7][14] - The "import rush" is first reflected in freight rates, and the shipment lags behind freight rates. Since June 3, the daily shipment volume from China to the U.S. has been above 49 ships. [8][9] - The U.S. "import rush" from Southeast Asia may lead China's "re - export rush" to last until mid - June at most. [10][15] - The U.S. weak restocking may end in August. [11][15] - The future trend of China's exports depends on tariff changes in the global trade environment. The main export destinations in 2024 were ASEAN, the U.S., the EU, etc. [12][16] - The progress of U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiations may impact China's re - export of labor - intensive products, and the inertia of EU economic policy decisions may affect Sino - EU trade. [13][16] 2. Imports Rush of the U.S. - The outcome of China - U.S. tariff negotiations affects the U.S. "import rush" from China. During the tariff tension period (April 9 - May 9), the number of fully - loaded vessels decreased. During the tariff easing period (from May 12), it boosted the "import rush". [17][20] - In April, high reciprocal tariffs led to a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity, and in late May, the actual shipping data continued to decline. [25][26] - The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to end by mid - June, and after mid - June, the incremental volume of China's "re - export rush" through Southeast Asia will be limited. [31][34] - The U.S. may reach the turning point of inventory growth rate in August. [37][38] 3. Tariff Negotiations - China's current export demand may be from backlogged orders, and the future export trend depends on tariff changes. The suspension of Trump's reciprocal tariffs for some economies will expire on July 8. [42][43] - The U.S. has only signed agreements with China and the UK, and the EU - U.S. negotiation progresses slowly. The U.S. increasing steel and aluminum tariffs will pressure the negotiation. [47] - Sino - European relations seem to improve, but the EU's potential restrictions on China and the inertia of its economic policy may affect trade. [48][49] - Japan, Indonesia, India and the U.S. have relatively good negotiation progress, but India's stance has hardened recently. [52][54] - Attention should be paid to the U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiation progress and its impact on China's entrepot trade. [53][55] 4. Different Scenarios - China's exports from May to July will maintain resilience, but the U.S. has increased non - tariff barriers against China, and the Sino - U.S. trade trend is uncertain. [56][62] - Three scenarios are assumed: in the optimistic scenario, China's 2025 export growth rate may be around 3%; in the neutral scenario, it may be around 1.5%; in the pessimistic scenario, it may be around - 2%. [58][63] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64][65] 5. Asset Outlook - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. The bond market has value for dip - buying after the funding pressure subsides, and the stock market and commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 19, equity index futures declined while 30 - Y CGB futures rose; energy & chemical futures increased, while metal futures declined [2][10][12] - The MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [1][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On June 19, equity index futures declined, 30 - Y CGB futures rose, energy & chemical futures increased, and metal futures declined. The top three gainers were Chinese jujube (up 4.9% with 29.6% month - on - month open interest increase), crude oil (up 4.7% with 8.4% month - on - month open interest increase), and LSFO (up 2.7% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.0% with 0.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), poly - silicon (down 2.5% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and silver (down 1.9% with 13.1% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Crude Oil - On June 19, crude oil increased by 4.7% to 570.9 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical uncertainties put oil prices in a high - risk phase, expected to be volatile. API data showed a significant draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but gasoline inventories declined more modestly. The IEA monthly report revised down annual demand growth forecast and raised supply expectations. Short - term Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate oil price fluctuations. Attacks on energy infrastructure have occurred but haven't materially affected production or transportation. If geopolitical tensions ease, premiums may decline rapidly, but supply disruption expectations are hard to falsify, leading to more volatile oil prices [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Copper - On June 19, copper decreased by 0.4% to 78310 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support the bottom of copper prices, and it may show high - level volatility in the short term. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with overseas economic weakening risks. Copper concentrate and blister copper processing fees are low, and raw material supplies are tight. Domestic and overseas smelters have cut production. As the consumption off - season approaches, downstream replenishment willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rebound, limiting price upside. The U.S. may increase copper tariffs, causing the COMEX copper price to rise again [22][23][24] 3.1.3.2 Gold - On June 19, gold decreased by 0.5% to 781.24 yuan/gram. The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, indicating two rate cuts this year. It lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, validating stagflation risks. After the meeting, gold had a slight late - session decline but maintained an overall volatile trend. The Israel - Palestine conflict continues but with no significant intensity escalation, and the safe - haven sentiment driving gold is gradually weakening. Since June, gold's correction magnitude has narrowed, and its price center has moved upward, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, with silver following a relatively strong volatile pattern [29][30][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MOFCOM stated that China is fully prepared for CPTPP accession and will actively align with high - standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also said that it will continuously accelerate the review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations and strengthen communication on export controls with relevant countries [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - As of June 19, the total dividend amount of public funds this year exceeded 107.66 billion yuan, a 47% increase year - on - year. At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the HKEX CEO said there are over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges should develop in a dislocation manner to jointly promote the construction of a multi - level capital market system [36][37]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-20 美元⼩幅⾛强，贵⾦属短线震荡 美联储按兵不动符合市场预期，年内降息预期维持两次，⾸降时点维持在 9⽉。美联储继续下调增⻓预期并上调通胀预期，滞胀⻛险的⽅向进⼀步 验证。在流动性未有短期宽松的场景下，⽇内权益市场整体下跌，贵⾦属 同样偏弱震荡运⾏。伊以冲突持续但未显著升级，避险情绪给⻩⾦带来的 驱动逐渐减弱。6⽉以来⻩⾦调整幅度逐渐收窄，价格重⼼震荡抬升， 中⻓期多头趋势维持，⽩银跟随⻩⾦，中期震荡偏强对待。 1）以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，此前一天他再次与美国总统特朗普 通话，双方设定了两个目标：消除伊朗的核威胁和弹道导弹威胁。 以色列军方发言人表示，以色列国防军当天袭击了伊朗位于布什尔、 伊斯法罕和纳坦兹等地的核设施，并仍在继续针对更多伊朗目标发动 打击。 2）英国央行将政策基准利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，利率 保持在逾两年高位。英国央行行长贝利表示，关于预期利率将逐步下 降的声明并不代表对八月份降息的预测。 3）欧盟正在推动与美国达成英国式的贸易协议，该协议将在下个月 的最后期限之后保留部分关税，进 ...

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/6/20 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122528 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099558 股资咨询号 Z0020955 张真 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 申宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 板材供需好于预期,但市场情绪依然偏悲观 需求: 螺纹表需219.19万吨（-0.78）,同比-7.03%; 热卷表需300.69万吨（+10.81）,同比3.68%; 五大材表需 884.18 万吨（+16.08）,同比1.85%。 赌评，本周载探索同比降幅扩大，钢厂库存去优惠度缓良、谈季轻配钥显。随着消酮他揭矿电子，产量低位团升，价格风近运行。制造业同样进入淡季、尽管终新反馈不佳，但本周热卷表席卢明显回升，产生回升相度数小，库存 低位去化。中厚板和冷轧供需维持高位。近期汽车、家电等行业处于淡季，补贴和美国关税政策形成扰动，因此尽管数据表现较好，但上行驱动有限，黑色价格仍维持震荡运行态势。 风险提示:需求放量、炉料供给 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Mid - term outlook is "oscillation" [6] - Alumina: Mid - long term outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [8] - Aluminum: Short - term outlook is "strong oscillation", mid - long term consumption may face pressure [9] - Aluminum alloy: Short - term outlook is "spot is weak in the off - season, the market follows aluminum and is strong", mid - long term outlook is that "spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound" [12] - Zinc: Outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [13] - Lead: Outlook is "oscillation" [17] - Nickel: Short - term outlook is "wide - range oscillation", mid - long term can "short on rebounds" [23] - Stainless steel: Short - term outlook is "range oscillation" [25] - Tin: Outlook is "oscillation" [27] Report's Core View - The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weakening demand are intertwined, and the non - ferrous metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short and medium term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventory, and weakening demand are intertwined. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin can be cautiously considered. In the long term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies for some varieties with supply surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **View**: The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and copper prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: US May labor market data is better than expected; global copper mining giant Antofagasta starts mid - year negotiations; China's electrolytic copper production increases; spot premiums decline; copper inventory decreases; Glencore buys Russian copper; Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. - **Logic**: Overseas economy may continue to weaken. Supply is tight due to falling processing fees and smelter maintenance. Demand weakens in the off - season, and there is a risk of tariff increase on copper. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventory supports prices. Copper may oscillate at a high level in the short term [6] Alumina - **View**: The number of warehouse receipts is at a low level, and the monthly spread of the alumina futures market widens. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; shipping freight increases; warehouse receipts decrease. - **Logic**: In the short and medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but warehouse receipt depletion is obvious. In the long term, events have limited impact without further fermentation. - **Outlook**: Mid - long term outlook is oscillation on the weak side. Short - term positive spreads or shorting can be considered after the far - month contract rises further [7][8] Aluminum - **View**: Low inventory and high premiums lead to high - level oscillation of aluminum prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; inventory decreases; geopolitical events occur; new tariff policies are introduced. - **Logic**: Short - term geopolitical and squeezing risks push up prices. Mid - long term consumption may face pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and mid - long term consumption may be under pressure. Short - term positive spreads can be considered, and mid - long term shorting on rallies is recommended [9][10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The transaction prices of scrap aluminum and spot increase, and the aluminum alloy futures market rises. - **Analysis**: Spot prices decline; relevant policies are introduced; car companies make payment commitments. - **Logic**: Short - term pressure in the off - season is high, but low inventory of electrolytic aluminum drives prices up. Mid - long term demand is expected to recover seasonally. - **Outlook**: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, and the market follows aluminum and is strong. Mid - long term spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound [10][12] Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate on the weak side. - **Analysis**: Spot premiums are different in different regions; inventory increases; a mine's production plan is announced. - **Logic**: Macro uncertainty exists. Supply is loose, and demand is in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and prices may decline further. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate on the weak side [12][13] Lead - **View**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices rise; lead ingot prices increase; inventory changes; some enterprises are in maintenance or production reduction. - **Logic**: Spot premiums narrow slightly; supply tightens; demand is in the off - season but with some positive factors. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][14][17] Nickel - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories change; relevant investment and cooperation projects are announced. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. Industry fundamentals weaken marginally. Inventory accumulates, and prices are under pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, mid - long term shorting on rebounds [17][23] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless steel futures market oscillates. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decrease; spot premiums exist; production data changes. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices decline, and steel mills are under pressure. Supply and demand may weaken, and inventory accumulates slightly. - **Outlook**: Short - term range oscillation [24][25] Tin - **View**: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipts and inventory increase; spot prices rise; high prices suppress restocking. - **Logic**: Supply disturbances in the main production areas subside. Without obvious driving forces, prices oscillate. Supply is tight, but upward elasticity is limited. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [25][27] 2.行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment of both stock and bond bulls has declined. Stock index futures are releasing capital congestion, stock index option selling strategies need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the treasury bond market has weakened [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Capital congestion is being released. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated lower on Thursday with slightly increased trading volume. Over 4,600 stocks in the entire market closed lower. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sectors among the primary industries closed higher. Market sentiment declined, the number of stocks hitting the daily limit increased, and there was a gap in the 4 - board stocks in the consecutive - limit ladder. High - beta styles retreated more significantly. The positions of IM increased by 14,500 lots compared to the previous day. There is no clear main line in the small - cap stocks in the future, so the operation should continue to be defensive [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: Selling options still need to wait and see, waiting for the inflection point of volatility decline. Due to the deeper adjustment of the underlying assets, the liquidity of the option market improved yesterday. Volatility continued to rise. Although the 500ETF options and MO are still at a relatively low percentile, considering that volatility may be in an upward range, the selling option strategy still needs to wait and see. The sentiment indicators show that the willingness to buy options to bottom - fish increased in a falling environment. Therefore, it is recommended to take profit on the long - volatility strategy intraday and use a light - position bullish spread strategy to bet on a short - term technical rebound [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Dual - buying on the main line, light - position bullish spread [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market declined. Treasury bond futures mostly closed lower yesterday. For spot bonds, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds mostly increased, while the yields of ultra - long - term treasury bonds decreased, and the yield curve flattened. The central bank's net injection of 84.2 billion yuan through open - market operations had a negative impact on the short - end as the inter - bank funding rates mostly increased slightly. The conflict between Israel and Iran and the Fed's hawkish stance reduced risk appetite, which was beneficial to the long - end of bonds. In the future, the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous buying of short - term bonds are beneficial to the short - end, while the 10 - year treasury bond yield has dropped to around the previous low of 1.6%, and there may be insufficient momentum for further significant decline in the short term. Attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [2][8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: For the trend strategy, maintain caution; for the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for the basis strategy, pay appropriate attention to the widening of the basis; for the curve strategy, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rate, etc. in China, as well as data on manufacturing indices, retail sales, CPI, and unemployment claims in the United States and the eurozone [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of projects using the risk - sharing tool for science and technology innovation bonds have been officially launched, which can enhance the bond - financing availability and convenience of relevant enterprises and institutions and initially connect the "equity - bond - loan" linkage [11] - During the period from May 16 to June 18, the consumption of home appliances and 3C products with trade - in services at Suning易购 was booming, with significant increases in store traffic, trade - in orders, and high - end product sales [11] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, maintained the IOR at 4.40%, the discount rate at 4.50%, and the pace of quantitative tightening unchanged [12] - The Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report also includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [14][18][30]

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Qatar is rich in oil and natural gas resources, with proven oil reserves of 2.6 billion tons and proven natural gas reserves of 177.7 billion tons, ranking 14th and 3rd in the world respectively [1][10]. - The oil and gas industry is the economic pillar of Qatar. The government has launched the "2030 National Vision" to develop economic diversification and build Qatar into a sustainable, competitive, and high - living - standard country by 2030 [2][10]. - In 2024, Qatar's LNG export volume was about 80 million tons, making it the world's third - largest LNG exporter [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Qatar National Overview 1.1 Location - Qatar is located on the Qatar Peninsula on the south - west coast of the Persian Gulf, bordering Saudi Arabia to the south. It has an area of 11,521 square kilometers, a coastline of 563 kilometers, a tropical desert climate, and an average annual precipitation of only 75.2 mm [8]. 1.2 Economic Overview - Qatar has a population of 3.05 million, with Qatari citizens accounting for about 15%. Its main export products are oil, LNG, and condensate, and main imports are machinery, transport equipment, food, and industrial raw materials. Major trading partners include the US, Japan, and Western European countries [10][11]. - In 2024, Qatar's GDP was $195.72 billion, per - capita GDP was $71,600, and total foreign trade volume was $114.8 billion [10][11]. 1.3 Historical and Political Situation - Qatar was part of the Arab Empire in the 7th century, became independent in 1971 as a hereditary monarchy. The Emir is the head of state and military commander - in - chief, and the Consultative Assembly has the power to review legislation and give policy suggestions [12]. - Qatar pursues an active and pragmatic foreign policy, has established diplomatic relations with over 130 countries, and is a dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It withdrew from OPEC in 2019 [13]. 2. Oil and Other Liquids - As of January 1, 2023, Qatar's crude oil reserves were estimated at 25.2 billion barrels, ranking 6th in the Middle East and 14th in the world. In 2021, its crude oil and Lease condensate production ranked 14th globally [14]. - Total oil and other liquid production decreased from over 2 million barrels per day in 2012 to less than 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022. Crude oil production decreased from 852,000 barrels per day in 2008 to 616,000 barrels per day in 2022 [14]. - Qatar Energy is using enhanced oil recovery technology to maintain production capacity. The Al - Shaheen oilfield increased production by about 60,000 barrels per day from 2020 - 2022 [14]. - Non - crude liquid production is increasing. The North Field expansion project is expected to increase condensate production by about 380,000 barrels per day and ethane and other LPG by about 300,000 barrels per day by 2027 [15]. 3. Natural Gas - As of December 2022, Qatar's proven natural gas reserves were about 843 Tcf, ranking 3rd in the world, mainly in the North Field [17]. - Qatar is an important global LNG exporter. Gas production growth slowed after 2013 due to mature fields and lack of major projects [17]. - Two large - scale natural gas production and liquefaction projects are under development, with a total capacity of 230.5 billion cubic feet per year, starting in 2025 and 2027 respectively [18][20]. 4. Electricity - In 2021, Qatar's power generation installed capacity was 10.6 GW, a 36% increase from 2010, and net power generation increased by 80% [24]. - Electricity consumption has been rising in the past decade. In 2022, the first utility - scale solar power project was installed, and more solar projects are planned to replace part of natural gas power generation [24]. - Qatar plans to increase solar power installed capacity to 5 GW by 2035 and reduce 11 million tons of CO2 emissions per year through CCS technology by 2035 [24]. 5. Energy Trade 5.1 Oil and Other Liquids - Qatar does not import crude oil or condensate, only occasionally imports petroleum products. Its crude oil and condensate exports have been stable at about 800,000 barrels per day since 2017, mainly to Asia [27]. - In 2022, Qatar's petroleum product exports were about 670,000 barrels per day, mainly to Asia, with LPG and naphtha being the main export products [27]. 5.2 Natural Gas - In 2021, Qatar was the world's third - largest natural gas exporter and second - largest LNG exporter. Most of its gas is exported as LNG to Asia and Europe, with a small amount to the UAE and Oman via the Dolphin Pipeline [32]. - In 2022, Qatar signed long - term LNG supply agreements with China and Germany [32]. 5.3 Electricity - As a member of the GCC Interconnection Authority, Qatar conducts a small amount of electricity trade through the regional market, with a transmission line capacity of 750 MW connecting Doha to the main line [35].