1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including fats and oils, protein meals, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and logs, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks for each product [1][4][5]. - Overall, most products are expected to show a trend of either fluctuating or fluctuating weakly, with fats and oils likely to continue weakening due to the resonance of macro and industrial factors [1]. 3. Summary Grouped by Related Catalogs 3.1 Quotes and Views - **Fats and Oils**: Due to the ease of the Middle - East situation, the sharp decline in crude oil prices, and favorable weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major fats and oils generally weakened. In the short term, fats and oils may continue to weaken [1][2][4]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, the inspection volume of US soybean exports was lower than expected, but the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was also lower than expected. Domestically, the supply and demand of soybean meal both increased, while the supply and demand of rapeseed meal were both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: The price of corn in different regions showed different trends. In the short term, long - position holders took profits, leading to a large decline in the market. In the medium term, based on the expected production - demand gap, the driving force is still upward, but the potential negative impact of import auctions should be noted [6][7]. - **Hogs**: In the short term, the proportion of large - hog slaughter increased, and the average slaughter weight continued to decline. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level. The pig price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the external shock ended, the trading focus may return to the fundamentals. The supply has an expected increase, while the demand has an expected decrease. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market followed the sharp decline in crude oil. The external situation may be temporarily controllable, but the market correction may not be over yet [12]. - **Cotton**: New cotton is expected to increase in production in 25/26. The demand side has entered the off - season. The cotton price pulled up at the end of the session, filling the gap. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market is weak, while the domestic market is strong. In the long term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season. In the short term, the downward space is limited [14]. - **Pulp**: After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the supply - demand weakness is the core. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Logs**: As the delivery approaches, the fluctuation intensifies. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the bottom of the market has support [16][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions that there are variety data monitoring sections for fats and oils, corn/starch, hogs, cotton/yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data details are provided [19][50][69][109][122][137][156].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures showed balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [2][4][11][13] - The top three gainers were logs, woodpulp, and LSFO, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), poly-silicon, and rapeseed [11][12][13] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the spot market of SCFIS(Europe) may be at the top range [16][25][30] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 23, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and commodity futures had balanced rises and falls, with EC down nearly 5% [11][13] - The top three gainers were logs (up 1.9% with a 0.8% MoM decrease in open interest), woodpulp (up 1.7% with a 9.0% MoM decrease in open interest), and LSFO (up 1.3% with a 17.6% MoM decrease in open interest) [11][13] - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.7% with a 2.4% MoM increase in open interest), poly-silicon (down 3.3% with a 38.4% MoM increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 2.9% with a 7.1% MoM decrease in open interest) [12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 23, coking coal increased by 1.3% to 807 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16][18] - Supply continued to slightly decrease due to non - resumed and newly shut - down coal mines. Import volume remained low, and the price difference between Australian and domestic coal was still inverted [17][18] - Demand slightly decreased, but downstream and intermediate links' purchases relieved upstream inventory pressure [17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On June 23, iron ore increased by 0.5% to 706 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile operation [23][25] - Short - term demand remained high and stable, while supply increased seasonally. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [23][25] - Overseas mines continued to rush for year - end and quarter - end targets, with shipments expected to be high before early July but with limited YoY growth [24][25] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On June 23, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 4.7% to 1875 points. The spot market may be at the top range [28][30] - The US intervention in the Iran - Israel conflict may cause sentiment risks, but the impact on the Europe route of container shipping is limited [29][30] - The US route is still declining, and the Europe route faces a game between weak reality and supply - chain disruption risks [29][30] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 16th Summer Davos Forum from June 24th to 25th [3][33] - Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China from August 31st to September 3rd [33] 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the DCE, which will enhance the risk - resistance capacity of China's chemical industry chain [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly in the medium to long term, with short - term opportunities for positive spreads or cautious short - selling [5] - Aluminum: Short - term unilateral trading depends on inventory accumulation and geopolitical trends; medium - to long - term trading with a bearish bias [6] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, while the medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [11] - Lead: Oscillating [12] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long term [15] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The reality of low inventories and the expectation of weakening demand in the non - ferrous metals industry are intertwined, leading to continued oscillations. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities, and cautiously consider short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the medium - to long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand prospects of base metals, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper - Information: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate, Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations, copper production increased, and copper inventories decreased significantly. The spot had a certain premium, and嘉能可 purchased Russian copper. Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [4] - Logic: Overseas economies may continue to weaken. Supply risks persist due to low processing fees, and demand is weakening in the off - season, but low inventories support copper prices [4] - Outlook: Copper prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Alumina - Information: Spot prices declined, warehouse receipts decreased, and an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang conducted a tender [4][5] - Logic: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the market is affected by various events. The market has gradually digested the news, and further upward movement requires an expansion of production cuts [5] - Outlook: Medium - to long - term oscillations are weak, and short - term positive spreads or cautious short - selling can be considered [5] Aluminum - Information: Aluminum prices and inventory data changed, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US increased tariffs on household appliances [6] - Logic: The possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has an impact on the regional balance, but the possibility and long - term ability are uncertain. Domestic inventory accumulation is increasing, and consumption may be under pressure in the second half of the year [6] - Outlook: Short - term trading depends on inventory and geopolitics, and medium - to long - term trading has a bearish bias [6] Aluminum Alloy - Information: Aluminum alloy prices and related data changed, and there were policies for new energy vehicle promotions and payment term commitments from car companies [7][10] - Logic: The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, but electrolytic aluminum prices drive the upward movement of waste aluminum and ADC12. In the medium - to long - term, ADC12 demand is expected to recover seasonally [7][8] - Outlook: Short - term spot is weak, and medium - to long - term has an upward expectation [8] Zinc - Information: Spot premiums, inventory changes, and Kipushi's production plan were reported [11] - Logic: Macro uncertainties exist, zinc ore supply is loosening, and demand is weakening in the off - season. Inventory accumulation is emerging, and the price support is weakening [11] - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [11] Lead - Information: Lead prices, inventory, and related data changed, and there were news about lead smelter maintenance and market supply and demand [12] - Logic: The cost support is stable, the supply is decreasing due to smelter maintenance and environmental inspections, and the demand is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the market is in a state of low supply and demand [12][13] - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [12] Nickel - Information: Nickel inventories increased, and there were news about mining cooperation, investment, and policy in the nickel industry [15] - Logic: The market is dominated by sentiment, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply is in excess, with high inventory pressure [15][19] - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to long - term [15] Stainless Steel - Information: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts, spot premiums, production data, and raw material prices changed [22] - Logic: Nickel and chromium prices are falling, and the supply and demand situation is complex. The inventory has a certain accumulation, but the structural oversupply pressure is limited [22] - Outlook: Short - term range oscillations, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes [22] Tin - Information: Tin warehouse receipts, inventory, and spot prices changed [23] - Logic: There is no obvious driving force currently. The supply in the main production areas has stabilized, and the domestic ore supply is tight, but the upward elasticity of prices is limited [23] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-24 多空要素交织，⾦价震荡 美国美联储审慎、地缘风险升温、经济数据超预期，多空要素交织， 金价震荡。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月标普全球制造业PMI初值 52，预期51，前值52；美国 6月标普全球服务业PMI初值 53.1，预期52.9，前值53.7。 2）美国5月成屋销售总数年化 403万户，预期397万户，前值400 万户。 3）俄罗斯总统普京周五表示，他认为整个乌克兰"都是我们 的"，并警告说推进中的俄军可能会占领乌克兰的苏梅市，以期 在边境开辟缓冲区。 价格逻辑： 美国本周末针对伊朗关键核设施发动了代号"午夜铁锤"的协调军事 打击，特朗普宣称行动成功。尽管此次地缘政治紧张局势显著升级， 且伊朗立即予以谴责并威胁报复（伊朗议会特别批准了关闭重要石油 咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的动议），但黄金价格回落，交投于3,370美 元附近并伴有轻微日内跌幅。伊朗威胁可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，加剧 了人们对全球能源供应中断的担忧，推高了通胀风险。尽管这种地缘 政治不确定性增强了黄金的避险吸引力，但金价仍难以突破关键阻力 位3,400美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical impact on stock index futures is controllable, and the A-share market is in a stage of oscillation to find a direction. The core contradiction lies in the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events on the fundamentals. The marginal flow of funds determines the short - term market direction [1][7]. - For stock index options, sentiment repair continuity can be arranged. The trading volume of the options market increased, and the sentiment of each variety rebounded slightly. The defensive sentiment weakened, and the volatility reached the lowest level this year. It is advisable to use collar strategies or bull spreads and also consider light - position double - buying [2][8]. - In the case of treasury bond futures, the profit - taking sentiment may increase. The treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. Although the market's risk - aversion sentiment may have increased due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, the increase was limited. With the approaching of the end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance, the market is cautious about the capital side, and the 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market oscillated and recovered yesterday, with the whole A - index rising 0.85%. The computer, military, and coal sectors led the gains, and the trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion. The number of daily limit stocks increased to 83 [7]. - **Key Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 34.50 points, - 30.78 points, - 48.37 points, and - 76.82 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.74 points, 6.14 points, 2.74 points, and - 12.03 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 18334 lots, 12339 lots, 6879 lots, and 12238 lots [7]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical risk is the main variable in the news, but the market expects a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked. The core contradiction in the A - share market is the need for policy support in the weak reality and the unclear impact of tariff events. The recent depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar has suppressed the sentiment of the pharmaceutical and new - consumption sectors [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market opened low and closed high yesterday. The sentiment of small - cap stocks recovered. The trading volume of the options market was 4082 million yuan, a 5.08% increase from the previous trading day, with medium - to - high liquidity and active intraday trading [2][8][9]. - **Key Data**: The PCR of the 50ETF and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different rebound strengths, with the 50ETF reaching the level at the end of May [8]. - **Logic**: The downward sentiment of each variety has eased, and the defensive sentiment has weakened. The volatility has reached the lowest level this year, and the cost - effectiveness of short - volatility is low [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use collar strategies, bull spreads, and light - position double - buying [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures mostly declined yesterday. The T main contract continued to decline in price after opening, rebounded in the afternoon, but still closed slightly lower. The TL main contract opened higher in the morning but turned down during the day [3][8][10]. - **Key Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 22.05 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 34.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - **Logic**: The conflict between Israel and Iran may have increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment, but the increase was limited. The stock market strengthened during the day, showing a stock - bond seesaw effect. The capital side was relatively stable, but the market was cautious due to the approaching end of the quarter and the acceleration of local bond issuance. The 10Y treasury bond interest rate is near the key point [3][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a trend strategy of oscillation, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies, appropriately focus on the widening of the basis for basis strategies, and choose to steepen the curve in the medium - term for curve strategies [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On June 23, 2025, the initial value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the same as the previous value; the initial value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the predicted value [11]. - On June 24, 2025, the German June IFO business climate index and the US June Conference Board consumer confidence index are yet to be announced [11]. - Other economic data such as the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, and the Eurozone's June consumer confidence index final value are also scheduled for release in the following days [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macroeconomics**: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that if inflation remains subdued, she may support a rate cut by the Fed in July. If inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens, the FOMC can cut interest rates [12]. - **Real Estate**: The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a service allowing employees to use their housing provident fund to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second - hand houses is under development and will be launched soon [12]. - **Stablecoins**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, 2025. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has set relatively strict standards for stablecoin issuers, with a high entry threshold. It is expected that only a few licenses will be issued initially, and the licensed stablecoins will have specific uses such as cross - border trade [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data is mentioned in the content, but no specific detailed summaries are provided in the text other than the data presented in the market views section [13][17][29].