投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3872.2 | 0.09% | 0.41% | 1.30% | 0.74% | -1.24% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 2092 | 2.65% | 1.16% | 0.80% | 40.31% | -7.31% | | | 上证50期货 | 2677.4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy has limited short - term impact on the market. For stock index futures, the Lujiazui Forum focuses on new stocks on the Sci - tech Innovation Board, and policies are difficult to accelerate the recovery. For stock index options, the market is resilient, and short - term sentiment is positive. For treasury bond futures, the bond market shows a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Lujiazui Forum introduced "1 + 6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board, which may lower the listing threshold for high - quality enterprises, accelerate the listing process, and increase the number of new stocks. However, the expected policy tools in the order of tens of billions did not appear, and there is no substantial policy to improve industrial profit distribution. The market lacks a clear long - term main line, and operations should be defensive. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' basis, spreads, and positions changed. It is recommended to wait and see [2][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Most underlying assets showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The overall trading volume of the option market increased slightly, with the main increase in 500ETF options and 300 - related varieties. Most varieties had a slight increase in volatility. The buying option strategy performed well in the morning. Sentiment indicators suggest that both buyers and sellers are short - term optimistic. It is recommended to deploy long - volatility strategies and short - term bullish spread strategies on dips, and be cautious with short - volatility strategies [3][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. The central bank's open - market operations slightly withdrew liquidity, but the DR001 rate remained low, and the short - end was favored. The expected loose monetary policy did not materialize, which was negative for the bond market. The central bank still cares about the capital market, and large banks are continuously buying short - term bonds, which is beneficial for the short - end. The long - end 10Y treasury bond rate is close to the previous low, and there may be limited downward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [4][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rates, and other indicators in China, the United States, the eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025, including previous values, predicted values, and published values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing announced to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to build a more attractive and competitive market system. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced pilot structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak" [271]. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict between Israel and Iran remains undetermined, which may lead to the US joining the attack on Iran. The crude oil market is in a volatile situation, and the price increase on the 17th was accompanied by a rise in the monthly spread and a strong diesel crack spread. The chemical industry was driven by the rise in crude oil prices on the 18th, but there were also signs of negative feedback as downstream and terminal products did not follow the price increase strongly. The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating pattern with a focus on long - short configurations [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - On June 18, the SC2508 contract closed at 552.7 yuan/barrel, up 5.3%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at 76.08 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44%. EIA data showed a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but a slight build - up in gasoline and diesel inventories. The refinery utilization rate decreased slightly. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are driving oil price fluctuations. The oil price is expected to oscillate in a high - risk stage [7]. LPG - The cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. Asphalt - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, asphalt has a geopolitical premium. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. Overall, the supply is expected to increase and the demand to decrease, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its valuation is low. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - On June 18, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The situation in Iran provides short - term support. In 2024, China imported about 8 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for 60% of the total imports and about 8% of the total apparent consumption. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. Urea - On June 18, the urea futures price closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. High supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not fully started. The industrial demand is weakening. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the overseas urea price has risen sharply, driving up the domestic price. It is expected that the urea futures price will oscillate strongly [20]. Ethylene Glycol - On June 18, the price of ethylene glycol increased. The inventory is low, and the cost has increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. The upward movement is driven by crude oil, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [15]. PX - On June 18, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 888.4 US dollars/ton. The supply and demand support has weakened, and the short - term trend depends on crude oil. Stimulated by the news of production cuts, it is short - term strong [12]. PTA - On June 18, the PTA spot price was 5205 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to follow crude oil in the short term, and the PTA - crude oil position is mainly compressed [12]. Short - Fiber - The fundamentals of PF are showing marginal improvement signs. The supply pressure has decreased due to production cuts. The processing fee has limited compression space. The export growth rate in 2025 is considerable [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - On June 18, the spot processing fee was compressed to an extremely low value. More production cuts are expected to occur, and it is possible to gradually arrange long positions for the processing fee [18]. PP - On June 18, the PP futures price oscillated strongly. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. Plastic - On June 18, the LLDPE futures price oscillated strongly. It is affected by crude oil prices, and its own fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. Styrene - On June 18, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7950 yuan/ton. The rebound driver is not sustainable, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. PVC - The macro - level conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted PVC, but the fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity releases, off - season demand, and weak export expectations. The dynamic cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [28]. Caustic Soda - In June, the supply and demand of caustic soda were both weak, and it is expected to be weak in July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is based on the production cost. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract [29]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spread - The report provides inter - period spread data for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc., including the latest values and change values [30]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - It presents basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [31]. Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spread data, including the latest values and change values, are given for different combinations of products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. - The outlook for each variety is as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [7] - Iron ore: Oscillation [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [8] - Coke: Oscillation [8] - Coking coal: Oscillation [11] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [15] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is affected by external disturbances and is in an off - season. The prices of each variety are oscillating. The overall demand is weak, and there is a downward pressure, but the upward driving force is also insufficient [1][2]. - After the positive factors of coking coal are digested, there is no new driving force for the time being. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a tight balance. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are in the off - season, and there is not much demand increase. The iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly, and the supply of coking coal and coke has not improved significantly, so the downward pressure is relatively large [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines start to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. The shipment volume is expected to increase seasonally and may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited [2][7]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production have slightly decreased, but it is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the arrival volume decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, the arrival volume will remain high, and there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited [2][7]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are seasonally weakening but not exceeding expectations. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that there is little possibility of a significant decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 2. Carbon Element - Supply: Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and the coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future [3]. - Demand: The coke production has declined from a high level. Under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses, the coke enterprises' production is expected to further decline [3]. - Inventory: During the price - cut cycle, the coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory is not high. The upstream coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved [3]. - Outlook: The contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream coking coal inventory reduction pressure remains. The short - term price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3. Alloys Silicomanganese - Cost: In the manganese ore market, some ore varieties have a shortage of circulating resources. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and the downstream procurement bargaining is more difficult [14]. - Supply: Some factories in Guizhou have few operating enterprises; some factories in Yunnan have plans to resume production; some factories in Guangxi are expected to shut down for maintenance; there are still situations of resuming production and new production capacity in the north. The production is expected to increase [14]. - Demand: The black market is in the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of pressing prices. The steel tender price is around 5600 yuan/ton, in line with market expectations [14]. - Outlook: The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the manganese ore market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The semi - coke market is stable [15]. - Supply: The manufacturers' profits are not good, the overall supply level is still at a low position, and the manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices [15]. - Demand: Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory. The metal magnesium market demand is weak, and the price is rising weakly [15]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, but individual manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production. The supply - demand gap tends to be filled, and the cost may still have a drag. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 4. Glass - Demand: The demand in the off - season is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weakening month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price has declined, and the production and sales are still weak [6]. - Supply: Recently, one production line is planned to be shut down for cold repair due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are still five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists [6]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory is slightly reduced, and the mid - stream inventory continues to decline, with repeated mood swings [6]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the price - cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. 5. Soda Ash - Supply: The pattern of oversupply has not changed, the maintenance is gradually resuming, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. - Demand: The heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting of float glass is expected to increase, but the daily melting growth of photovoltaic glass may not be sustainable [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will still decline [6].

信期货 60 50 460 40 440 30 420 20 400 -10 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 美国战略石油库存(百万桶) 美国汽油库存(百万桶) 2022 -2023 2022 -2023 2021 2021 2024 2025 2024 2025 700 260 650 250 600 240 550 230 500 450 220 400 210 350 - 200 300 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国柴油库存(百万桶) 美国航煤库存(百万桶) 2022 2022 2021 -2023 2021 -2023 2024 2024 = 2025 ·2025 170 51 160 48 150 45 140 42 130 39 N 120 36 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [6][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. After the policy stance is released at the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no visible main line, so the operation should be defensive, waiting for the release of capital crowding [1][6] - Stock index options: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued to seize potential volatility - rising opportunities [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The short - end is favorable, while the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield has limited downward momentum, so attention should be paid to the curve steepening [2][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Views**: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their inter - period spreads have changed, and the positions have also changed [6] - **Logic**: The main lines of new consumption and innovative drugs have corrected, the momentum effect has weakened, and the Hang Seng AH Premium Index has reached a five - year low, which may drag down the A - share market. After the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no clear main line [1][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Views**: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued [7] - **Logic**: The market liquidity has not improved significantly, the volatility is at a low level, and the sentiment indicators are neutral to optimistic, but the volume is weak, so the direction strategy should be on short - term wait - and - see, and a small - position call - buying can be tried [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt the double - buying strategy [7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Views**: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed [7] - **Logic**: The MLF expired, but the inter - bank repurchase rate declined, the funds were loose, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The central bank's attitude towards the funds is still supportive, and large banks are buying short - term bonds, but the long - term yield has limited downward momentum [2][7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Be cautious. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: Steepening the curve in the medium - term has a higher odds [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025 are presented, including fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, unemployment rate, CPI, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - "New Fed Wire" Nick Timiraos believes that the Fed may cut interest rates this week if it were not for tariff risks [11] - The Bank of Japan maintains the target interest rate and will reduce the purchase of Japanese government bonds starting from April 2026 [11] - China plans to implement zero - tariff measures for 53 African countries through a new free - trade agreement [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating Bearish [13] - Sugar: Oscillating Bearish [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Bearish [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [19] Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and rubber is oscillating bullishly. The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided. Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals. The spot price increase of corn/starch has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating. The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. The synthetic rubber futures are moving horizontally. The pulp market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly. The cotton price is slightly oscillating with weak rebound momentum. The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded. The fluctuation of logs has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided [5]. - **Logic**: The EPA's biofuel blending obligation proposal is beneficial to the demand expectation of US soybean oil. The US soybean planting progress is good, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The production increase expectation of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited, and the export expectation is optimistic. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [5]. - **Outlook**: Driven by positive factors such as the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, and the EPA's biofuel proposal, oils and fats may operate bullishly in the near future, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase and the technical resistance at key levels [5]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the rise in crude oil and the EPA proposal are beneficial to US soybeans. The sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going well, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. The freight has increased, and the discount of South American soybeans has risen. Domestically, the strengthening of overseas soybean prices has boosted the domestic soybean meal futures. The basis in East China has rebounded. Although the soybean arrival volume will increase in the next two months, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is not under pressure for the time being, and the market demand is stabilizing [6]. - **Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating range. The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly. Oil mills can actively sell hedging at high prices, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low prices. Unilateral positions can be bought at low prices, and a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be adopted [6]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price increase of corn has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, and the rise has slowed down. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as the low arrival volume at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, the outflow of corn in the Northeast, and the new wheat listing. The demand for corn in the feed and deep - processing industries has changed. In the medium term, the import of grains is tightening, and the inventory reduction expectation for the 24/25 season is established [7]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected production - demand gap, the trend is still upward, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of the import auction policy [7]. 4. Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: After the previous weight reduction and price decline, the reluctance of farmers to sell has fluctuated. The demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, the slaughter weight of pigs is decreasing, and the supply of large pigs is still large. In the long term, the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the number of newborn piglets has been increasing [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearishly. The near - term contracts are under pressure due to the release of large - pig inventory, and the far - term contracts are affected by the expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [8]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is warm, and the futures are oscillating bullishly [10]. - **Logic**: The resurgence of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the commodity market sentiment. Although natural rubber has no direct relationship with crude oil, it is driven by the strong market sentiment. The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has rebounded slightly. The demand side has seen a partial recovery in the start - up of tire enterprises, but the demand expectation is still weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The impact of external events on the futures will continue to dominate, but the duration is unknown. The Ru futures may maintain an oscillating bullish trend in the short term due to the low off - standard basis [10]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures are moving horizontally [12]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East has made the international crude oil price temporarily strong, which has driven the BR futures to be bullish. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral. The operating rate of private enterprises has declined, but the inventory has increased slightly. The price of butadiene has declined, and the market supply is relatively abundant [12]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict may last for at least one week, and the emotional disturbance to the futures may continue. Although the downward trend in fundamentals remains unchanged, short - term participation should be cautious, and the futures may operate oscillating bullishly [12]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is slightly oscillating, and the rebound momentum is weak [13]. - **Logic**: The 25/26 season's cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The demand side has entered the off - season, and the inventory of textile products has increased. The commercial inventory of cotton has been depleted faster than in previous years, which may support the old - crop contracts, but the upward driving force is not strong [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and oscillating bearishly in the long term [13]. 8. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded [15]. - **Logic**: After the continuous decline of the external market driving the domestic market to new lows, the external market has rebounded, and the short - term decline of the domestic market has slowed down. The fundamentals of the sugar market have changed little. The new - season global sugar supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the strong crude oil price are beneficial to sugar prices. The domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrival of imported sugar [15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the long term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season; the sugar price may rebound for valuation repair in the short term [15]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have slightly declined, and the supply and demand are still weak. In the short term, the pulp import volume remains high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, the import pressure is still large, and the demand peak season will not start until August [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply is resilient, and the demand remains weak. The pulp futures are expected to operate oscillating bearishly [16]. 10. Logs - **View**: The fluctuation has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [19]. - **Logic**: The log futures have risen and then fallen, and the delivery game is intensifying. The spot price center of mainstream ports has risen due to the clearance of old goods. The supply pressure will ease at the end of June or early July, and the demand is in the off - season. The profit of downstream processing plants is recovering, and the market sentiment may lead to price support [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to last until the end of June to early July, and the demand has no obvious improvement expectation. The short - term fundamentals maintain a weak balance. The futures may fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the high virtual - to - real ratio of the delivery game [19].

仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 国内商品期货涨跌互现，国债期货震荡上涨 ——中信期货晨报20250618 中信期货研究所 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3868.6 | -0.03% | 0.32% | 1.21% | 0.65% | -1.34% | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 2038 | 0.39% | -1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strongly bullish", "bullish with fluctuations", "sideways", "bearish with fluctuations", and "strongly bearish" [4][277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel - Iran conflict, have intensified, leading to increased volatility in oil prices and a bullish trend in the energy and chemical sector. Chemical products are experiencing a catch - up rally due to the persistent strength of crude oil prices [2][3]. - The supply of some chemical products such as methanol and urea has been affected by the Israel - Iran conflict. The polyester chain's raw material PTA has seen a rapid increase in basis, and the market is expected to be dominated by long - short configurations [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to greater price volatility. API data shows a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but the gasoline drawdown was relatively small. The IEA monthly report has lowered the annual demand growth forecast and raised the supply forecast. Short - term, Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate price fluctuations [8]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is oscillating, and asphalt futures prices are also oscillating. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, which will put pressure on the asphalt crack spread. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating at a high level. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock has decreased significantly. Although there is some support from Egypt's procurement, the overall supply - demand situation is bearish [10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13][14]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is oscillating with a bullish bias. Iranian methanol supply disruptions can significantly affect China's methanol prices [25]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a bullish trend in the futures market. Although the current supply is high, the start of domestic and foreign demand is imminent [26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Future arrivals are still limited, and EG will continue to be in a bullish pattern [19]. - **PX**: The supply - demand support has weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to crude oil trends. The supply capacity of Asian PX is steadily increasing, and the support effect of the domestic PX supply - demand fundamentals is slowing down [16]. - **PTA**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it will follow crude oil in the short term. The overall performance of PTA is still good, but the polyester production cut pressure may form a negative feedback [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: It will continue to oscillate bullishly following its raw materials. The PF fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement, and the supply pressure has been alleviated [20][21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The industry is stable, and the downside space of bottle chip processing fees is limited. Bottle chip enterprises have announced maintenance plans, indicating that the current processing fees cannot be sustained [21][23]. - **PP**: With the uncertainty of Middle East disturbances, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [30]. - **Plastic**: It will fluctuate with oil prices in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The current fundamentals are still under pressure, and the downstream demand is cautious [29]. - **Styrene**: As crude oil prices have declined, styrene is in a weak consolidation phase. The future rebound drive is not sustainable, and both supply and demand are bearish [17]. - **PVC**: The dynamic cost has increased, and PVC is oscillating. Although the supply - demand outlook is bearish, the cost center has shifted upward [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, it is in a bearish trend. In June, the supply and demand were both weak, and in July, supply is expected to increase while demand remains weak [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of SC is 5, with a change of - 6 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 156, with a change of 23, and the number of warehouse receipts is 94,510 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 308, with a change of 3 [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iran's signal to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. If the geopolitical conflict ends, the market is expected to return to fundamental drivers. This week, focus on the guidance from the Fed's June FOMC meeting. Although it is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged in June, the release of the quarterly dot - plot and economic inflation guidance still needs attention. The long - term bullish trend of gold remains [1][3]. - In the medium to long term, the bullish trend of gold is maintained due to factors such as the continuation of the weakening US fundamentals in the second half of the year, the Fed still being on the path of interest rate cuts, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Key Information - According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials have signaled their desire to end hostilities, resume nuclear - related negotiations, and are willing to return to the negotiating table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. They also conveyed to Israel that controlling violence is in the interests of both sides [2]. - The Fed will hold a monetary policy meeting this week, and the market generally expects it to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Despite robust economic data and moderate inflation in the US, President Trump has pressured the Fed to cut rates. Most institutions predict that September may be the first window for a rate cut this year [2]. - The US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 16, worse than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2. The manufacturing employment index was 4.7, up from the previous - 5.1; the new orders index was - 14.2, down from the previous 7; the prices received index was 26.6, up from the previous 22.9 [2]. Price Logic - Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell, while silver prices fluctuated at high levels. The signal from Iran to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. The long - term bullish trend of gold is maintained for three reasons: trade frictions still exist, the US fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half of the year; the Fed is still on the path of interest rate cuts, and the probability of a rate cut in September has increased; the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance is the cornerstone of the gold bull market [3]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3600], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].