1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Medium - term, the market may maintain range - bound operation, with a current outlook of "Oscillating" [4] - **Protein Meal**: The outlook is "Oscillating". The spot is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis is expected to remain weak [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [4][6] - **Pigs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly", with near - term contracts being weaker and far - term contracts being stronger [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The outlook is that the downward trend may continue, with a current situation of "Oscillating" [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It should be treated weakly, with an outlook of "Oscillating" [8][9] - **Cotton**: Short - term "Oscillating", long - term "Oscillating Weakly" [9] - **Sugar**: Long - term, there is a downward drive; short - term, "Oscillating Weakly" [10] - **Pulp**: The outlook is "Oscillating" [10] - **Logs**: The outlook is "Oscillating Weakly" [11][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, such as pigs with high inventory weights and increasing supply in the third quarter, and sugar with an expected increase in supply in the new season. Some products are affected by weather, trade policies, and other factors, like oils and fats being influenced by trade policies and overseas biodiesel policies, and rubber being affected by macro - sentiment and African tariff policies [2][4][6][7][8][9][10][11][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting is nearing completion, and the growth is good. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. The short - term palm oil production increase pressure may decrease marginally. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import volume may decrease. In the medium term, the market may range - bound, and currently, the sentiment has weakened [4] - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean price is expected to range - bound. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, the basis is weak, and the futures follow the international market. Oil mills can sell short on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy the basis contract or fix the price on dips [4] - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures are weak. The wheat policy has affected the market sentiment. The import of grains is tightening, and the inventory is expected to decrease, but the continuous sharp rise is difficult to sustain [4][6] - **Pigs**: The current inventory weight is high, and the short - term price is under pressure. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong [2][6] - **Natural Rubber**: The rebound has ended, and the price has dropped. The macro - sentiment support has weakened, and the tariff policy may have a negative impact. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak, and the downward trend may continue [7][8] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose, remaining weak. The BR fundamentals are neutral, and the butadiene demand is weak, but there may be short - term support [8][9] - **Cotton**: The new - crop production is expected to increase. The inventory is low, which may support the near - term contracts. The long - term price is under pressure due to the expected increase in production [9] - **Sugar**: The new season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward drive. The current price is oscillating weakly [10] - **Pulp**: The futures price is falling, and it is more likely to break below the platform. The supply and demand are weak, and the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline [10] - **Logs**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures are weak. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory removal has pressure [11][13] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][34][47][63][72][105][117][132]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The overall impact of Sino - US trade frictions on the black sector has weakened. As the off - season approaches, the demand for building materials remains weak, but the inventory has no pressure due to the decline in production. The industrial materials demand shows signs of weakening from June to July, allowing for a decline in hot metal production, and the negative feedback path is difficult to disprove. Currently, the weakening demand and the accumulation of iron ore at ports suppress the upside, and prices are oscillating near support levels waiting for new drivers [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with expected seasonal increases in shipments until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety has increased, leading to a slight decline in coking coal production. However, the overall market supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the coke production level is loosening at a high level, and coke production tends to decline due to increasing inventory pressure on coke enterprises and shrinking coking profits. In terms of inventory, coke enterprises are not enthusiastic about replenishing raw materials during the price cut period, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. Overall, the supply contraction is limited, the downstream rigid demand is expected to decline in the off - season, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, coking coal prices may continue to be weak [3] Alloy - In the alloy sector, the cost of production has been slightly repaired during the wet season in Yunnan and due to electricity price discounts in Guangxi, leading to a slight increase in supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. On the demand side, as the off - season for the black market arrives, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon - manganese in June was 11,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to May. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon - manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, and as the downstream steel consumption enters the off - season, the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The market sentiment remains cautious, and costs may still be a drag. The future focus is on steel procurement and production [3] Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, the demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has significantly increased, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors affecting the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to decline, and the sentiment fluctuates. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led to a decline in the futures market. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and after the maintenance period ends, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5] Specific Products - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the macro - fluctuations have converged. This week, the demand for the five major steel products has weakened, especially for rebar. The hot metal production has peaked, and steel production has significantly declined. Although both supply and demand have weakened this week, the inventory is still decreasing. The main factors suppressing the futures price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [6] - **Iron Ore**: The port trading volume has increased, and the spot market prices have declined slightly. Overseas mines are increasing shipments seasonally, and it is expected to remain high until early July. The profitability rate of steel enterprises and hot metal production have slightly decreased but are expected to remain high in the short term. There is an expectation of a small - scale and phased accumulation of ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and significant price drops are unlikely, so the ore price is expected to oscillate [2][6] - **Scrap Steel**: As the off - season for building materials deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price of finished products is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the resources are relatively tight, supporting the price. The demand has also decreased as the profit of electric furnaces at off - peak hours is negative, and the hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly declined. The inventory in steel mills is still decreasing, but the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that the scrap steel price will oscillate [6] - **Coke**: After three rounds of price cuts, there is an expectation of further price cuts due to the off - season demand for steel and pessimistic market sentiment. On the supply side, the production of some coke enterprises has slightly declined, but the overall production remains stable, and the de - stocking pressure is still high. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining, and there is an expectation of further decline. The supply reduction is limited, and the demand support is weakening, so the coke price still has room to decline [6][7] - **Coking Coal**: The market trading atmosphere is poor, and there are still online auction failures. Recently, the number of shut - down coal mines has increased, leading to a slight decline in production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The coke production is loosening at a high level, and the inventory pressure on coke enterprises is increasing, leading to a decline in demand for coking coal. The upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years. In the short term, the coking coal price may continue to be weak due to the high - inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3][8] - **Glass**: The demand is declining in the off - season, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. The supply pressure remains as there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory has increased slightly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures market is oscillating. In the short term, a weak - oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the price - cut range of Hubei manufacturers [5][8] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the maintenance period ends, the supply pressure remains. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The sentiment affects the futures market, but the long - term oversupply situation cannot be changed. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [5][9] - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost of production has been slightly repaired in Yunnan and Guangxi. The supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased. The supply of non - standard warehouse goods is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The black market is in the off - season, and the downstream is cautious and has a strong intention to bargain. The steel procurement by Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese in June has increased. The supply - demand of silicon manganese is becoming more balanced, and there is an expectation of a decline in manganese ore prices. However, due to cost inversion, manufacturers are less willing to sell. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [3][11] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost of production in various regions has little fluctuation, and the overall supply level is still low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The steel procurement has increased, but the downstream construction progress is average due to the college entrance examination and rainy season. The terminal steel consumption is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong intention to reduce inventory. The procurement sentiment in the magnesium market has recovered, and the price has stabilized and increased. The supply of silicon iron has slightly increased, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and the cost may still be a drag. It is expected that the futures market will oscillate in the short term [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The cost - effectiveness of chasing the rise is not high. Although the stock market may have structural opportunities in the second half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around 3400, and it is advisable to wait for better layout opportunities [1][5]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use options for hedging and defense. The market turnover of options has declined by 21.50%, and the implied volatility has risen. It is recommended to continue holding put options for short - term hedging [1][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The profit - taking sentiment is rising. Although the short - term liquidity environment may be relatively stable, the long - end may be in a volatile state, and the short - end may be slightly stronger [2][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM current - month contracts are - 8.60, - 9.08, - 19.93, - 35.42 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.23, 0.66, 11.81, 7.09 points; the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 42.0, 36.2, 79.6, 97.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 2.6, 3.8, 6.0, 4.2 points; the total positions change by - 15578, - 1138, - 2651, 2007 hands respectively [5]. - **Logic**: The equity market was mainly volatile yesterday, and the offshore Hong Kong stock market adjusted. The AH premium is at a low level, and the poor performance of popular stocks affected market sentiment. The index shows strong resistance to decline, but short - term chasing the rise is not cost - effective [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [5]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Logic**: The equity market was slightly stronger in a volatile manner yesterday. The option market turnover declined by 21.50%. The high trading volume on Tuesday was due to intraday volatility and hedging needs, not new capital inflows. After two consecutive days of narrowing liquidity, the market is still in a volatile state [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for hedging and defense [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL next - quarter contracts are 47942, 47953, 25053, 62753 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 12693, - 2506, - 10233, - 12885 hands; the positions are 188181, 150785, 118548, 106051 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 823, - 60, - 555, 901 hands [5]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The T main contract opened high and closed low, with a significant decline in positions, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment. The spot bond market lacks incremental information, the capital is tight, and most bond varieties have corrected under the influence of profit - taking [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, it may be volatile in the short term, and the short - end may be stronger; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of China and the United States from June 9th to June 13th, including China's May PPI, CPI, export and import annual rates, M2, M0, M1 money supply annual rates, and the United States' May CPI, core CPI, PPI annual rates, and the initial value of the June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On June 12th, Ant International responded to the news of applying for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, stating that it is accelerating investment and cooperation in global treasury management [8]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up", with officials from relevant departments making statements on various aspects such as cross - listing, capital cultivation, and industrial development [8]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration jointly issued measures to support Fujian in exploring new ways for cross - strait integration and building a cross - strait integration development demonstration area, including cross - border trade and investment facilitation and financial supervision [8]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not provided in the given text [9][13][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, with various products having different outlooks such as "oscillate", "oscillate weakly", etc., based on the specific situation of each product [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become the core factor driving oil prices, with high uncertainty. The ongoing Iran - US nuclear negotiations are accompanied by military threats. If geopolitical concerns are disproven, the pressure of increased production may drive oil prices down. However, if military action occurs, it could provide significant upward potential for oil prices. The chemical industry shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weak outlook [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to intensified oil price fluctuations. SC2507 closed at 495.7 yuan/barrel on June 12, with a change of +3.68%. Brent2508 closed at 70.34 dollars/barrel, with a change of -0.62%. The Middle East situation is the key factor, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to oscillate after a rapid rise [4] - **LPG**: Cost support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil. However, domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt cracking spread continues to decline. The asphalt futures closed at 3527 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3670 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3725 yuan/ton respectively [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp rise, it has fallen back. The main contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price oscillates following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with low valuation, and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [7] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and it oscillates. The spot price in Taicang on June 12 was 2370 yuan/ton, and the port inventory increased to 65.22 tons on June 11 [15] - **Urea**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is operating weakly. The factory and market low - end prices on June 12 were 1730 and 1715 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily production was 20.74 tons [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethane imports may return to normal, and EG has adjusted significantly. The spot price on June 12 was around 4315 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was about 63.4 tons on June 9 [11] - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. The CFR price in Taiwan on June 12 was 818 dollars/ton. The Asian PX operating rate will further increase, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle [10] - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening. The spot price on June 12 was 4855 yuan/ton, and the polyester sales were weak. The 250 - ton PTA device in Shandong has reached full capacity [10] - **Short Fibre**: Production cuts support processing fees, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The sales rate on June 9 was 60% on average, and the export growth rate from January to April was 33% [11][12] - **Bottle Chip**: The production is at a high level with oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [13][14] - **PP**: Although the oil price rebounds, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and it oscillates. The mainstream transaction price in East China on June 12 was 7100 yuan/ton, and the supply is still increasing [16][17] - **Plastic**: The raw material end provides a boost, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand, and it oscillates. The mainstream LLDPE price on June 12 was 7170 yuan/ton, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - expectations, it rebounds. The spot price in East China on June 12 was 7780 yuan/ton. However, the rebound drive may not be sustainable, and the supply may increase while the demand is weak [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and it operates weakly. The benchmark price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the long - term [18] - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center has shifted downwards, and it operates weakly. The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2719 yuan/ton, and the demand is weak while the supply is expected to increase [18] (2) Variety Data Monitoring (i) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spreads and their changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) being 4 with a change of 0, Brent (M1 - M2) being 0.8 with a change of - 0.05, etc. [19] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of - 61, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [20] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are also data on inter - variety spreads and their changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 141 with a change of - 14 [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical sector is in a volatile trend. The downstream of the chemical industry is generally weak, with the terminal order index declining compared to May. The peak of supply - side maintenance was in May, and after destocking in May, the market frequently trades on the progress of device maintenance and restart. Currently, the maintenance schedule of a large refinery's reforming unit in East China is crucial. The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a volatile mindset [2]. - The geopolitical risk of crude oil is rising, and oil price fluctuations are intensifying. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical uncertainties make the oil price at a high - risk stage [1][4]. - The overall supply - demand situation of various energy and chemical products is different. For example, LPG demand is still weak, asphalt is over - valued, and PTA supply increases while demand decreases [2][5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market View - **Crude Oil**: On June 11, SC2507 closed at 478.1 yuan/barrel with a change of - 0.35%, and Brent2508 closed at 70.78 dollars/barrel with a change of + 6.28%. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the market is worried about direct military conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran. OPEC+ production increase makes the supply expected to be relatively excessive, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to fluctuate [4]. - **LPG**: On June 11, PG 2507 closed at 4130 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.27%. Domestic refinery maintenance is gradually restored, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The upward rebound space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt futures closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The asphalt price is over - valued, and the asphalt spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. The price is under pressure from factors such as increased heavy - oil supply and sufficient domestic raw material supply [4][5]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2966 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3559 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil to fluctuate, with weak supply - demand, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [8]. - **Methanol**: On June 11, the methanol price fluctuated. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Urea**: On June 11, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1730 and 1740 yuan/ton respectively. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On June 11, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated. The market trading logic is shifting, and it is recommended to wait and see. It has support at 4200 - 4300 yuan, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **PX**: On June 11, PX CFR China Taiwan was 812 dollars/ton. The cost - end guidance slows down, and the supply - demand game intensifies. It is expected to continue to consolidate [10]. - **PTA**: On June 11, the PTA spot price was 4820 yuan/ton. Supply increases and demand decreases, and the market price is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Styrene**: On June 11, the East China styrene spot price was 7720 yuan/ton. Driven by the macro - meeting and device rumors, it rebounds, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: On June 9, the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber followed the raw materials to fluctuate. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the processing fee compression space is limited. It is expected to be dominated by macro - negative factors [14][15]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On June 11, the polyester bottle - chip factory price was mostly stable. The low processing fee continues, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **PP**: On June 11, the East China wire - drawing mainstream transaction price was 7050 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [20]. - **Plastic**: On June 11, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7150 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **PVC**: On June 11, the East China calcium - carbide - method PVC benchmark price was 4790 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment warms up, and it rebounds weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand is pessimistic, and the price is under pressure [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: On June 11, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2719 yuan/ton. The spot price has peaked, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 09 - contract fundamental expectation is pessimistic [22]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. have different changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 5 with a change of 1, and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 1.09 with a change of 0.02 [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is 259 with a change of 17, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of pairs such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented with their corresponding changes [25]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The data for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are mentioned, but detailed data are not fully provided in the summary part [26][38][50].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the gold price to break through 3360 in the short term. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 77 bps in the next year and 48 bps by December [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as the "Liberation Day" tariff issue and Sino-US trade negotiations, have pushed some safe-haven funds into gold [2]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In May, the US CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.3%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (expected 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1]. - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that coercive trade policies cannot solve financial imbalances, and all parties need to weigh policy adjustments to resolve tensions [1]. - Sino-US economic and trade consultations in London reached a trade framework agreement, aiming to resolve trade disputes over rare earths and magnets [1][2]. Price Logic - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which was the main reason for the short - term rise in the gold price [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continued to support the safe - haven demand for gold, with some safe - haven funds flowing into gold on Wednesday [2]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's equal - tariff hikes and high uncertainty on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. US economic data in May was weak, but the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market bets on Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, and in the short term, they may mainly utilize existing resources. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but pressure on export and price data may gradually appear. Attention should be paid to China's "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to gradually rise. Bonds are still worth allocating at low prices after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations. Focus on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: In April, the US trade deficit was $61.62 billion. The year - on - year import was 3.4%, and the month - on - month was - 16.3%. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, May's non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth were better than expected [6]. - Domestic: Policies maintain stability. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Pay attention to "rush re - export", "rush export" and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset: Overseas, more hedging and more volatility; in China, a structural market. Allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating at low prices. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3.2 Viewpoints Compendium 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies implement established plans [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks are not fully released, and the market is in a state of shock. Pay attention to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and be cautious with covered strategies. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Sino - US talks have started, and the market is waiting and observing. Pay attention to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and molten iron production, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price fluctuates. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Coke: Demand support weakens, and there is still an expectation of price decline. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Coking coal: Supply and demand are still loose, and upstream sales are weak. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Other products: Such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, are all in a state of shock, with different factors to pay attention to [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and domestic demand recovery, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals: Such as aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., are in a state of shock, with different influencing factors [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other chemical products: Such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock, with some in a state of decline or shock and rise [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Rubber: Driven by the strength of commodities, rubber prices rise. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, and the market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other agricultural products: Such as cotton, sugar, and corn, have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - **Oscillation on the strong side**: Corn and starch [5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - **Livestock**: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Outlook** - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - **Corn and Starch**: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - **Livestock**: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - **Sugar**: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Log**: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. **Variety Data Monitoring** The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is mainly "oscillating", with glass and soda ash having a "weak - oscillating" outlook [6][7][10][11][12][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the black - building materials market is in a state of oscillation. Although the previous price decline has accumulated strong momentum, and there was a large - scale rebound after macro - positive and coking coal news, the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, combined with factors such as increased iron ore shipments and unimproved fundamentals of coking coal and coke, have led to the price returning to a weak state [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mines are increasing shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with shipments expected to remain high until early July. Steel enterprises' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term. The supply - demand balance is tight, with limited short - term inventory accumulation pressure. There may be a slight increase in port inventory at the end of the month, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines have slightly reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines are operating normally, and coking coal production remains relatively high. Mongolian coal transactions are limited, and port inventory is accumulating. On the demand side, coke production has started to decline, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, with shrinking coking profits. During the price - cut period, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory has decreased, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has increased. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost side is under pressure as manganese ore prices may decline. The supply in some regions has slightly increased, but due to cost inversion, manufacturers' willingness to sell is low. The demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season, and downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate [3][5][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply has slightly increased, and the terminal steel - using industry is about to enter the off - season. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious. The cost may still have a negative impact. The short - term disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate, and future steel procurement and production conditions should be monitored [5][14]. Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak compared to the same period last year, leading to a decline in spot prices. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold - repair and ignition, and there are 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors in the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. Coal prices are also expected to decline, and market sentiment fluctuates. The disk price is lower than the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei's spot glass has led the disk price to decline. The short - term view is weak - oscillating [5]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the resumption of maintenance has increased supply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12]. Other Products - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period after the Sino - US talks. The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, and the supply has not decreased significantly, but hot metal production may have peaked. The inventory is still decreasing, and the main factors suppressing the disk price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. The short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, and the finished product disk price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, which supports the price. The demand has slightly increased overall, but the inventory in steel mills has decreased due to a significant drop in arrivals. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate following the finished product price [7]. - **Coke**: After the third price cut, the terminal steel - using demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. There is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply has slightly decreased in some regions, but overall production is stable, and the inventory of coke enterprises is accumulating. The demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. The price is under downward pressure due to weak demand support and cost drag [7][9][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The market transaction price has continued to decline. Some coal mines have reduced production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The demand for coking coal is declining as coke production weakens. The upstream inventory pressure has increased during the price - cut period. The short - term price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase and is expected to be weak [7][11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-12 谈判落地，股债双⽜ 股指期货：市场对⾼度有所分歧 股指期权：期权对冲防御 国债期货：债市表现较强 股指期货方面，市场对高度有所分歧。昨日盘面普涨，热点题材集中 在汽车零部件、新消费、稀土等领域，上行普遍由行业政策所驱动，宏观 及政策预期对盘面扰动弱化。从近一段市场表现来看，A股震荡中稳步上 行，进攻方向相对聚焦，但部分投资者担心微盘拥挤风险，在流动性宽裕 环境中，资金聚焦哑铃配置。但伴随沪指逼近3月高点，市场当前对于高 度分歧严重，谨慎者认为上行仍需盈利或是政策层面的配合，乐观者认为 量化抱团会使得强者恒强，向上突破概率较大。在明确突破或是回调之 前，暂建议维持谨慎态度，多看少动。 程小庆 从业资格号:F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论 ...