Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 启动极氪私有化，打造"一个吉利" 事项： ❖ 吉利汽车发布公告，宣布向极氪提交非约束性私有化要约，拟以2.566美元/18.5 元或 1.23 股新发行的吉利汽车股份收购每股极氪股份（以上两种方案股东可 选择，后同），或以 25.66 美元/185 元或 12.3 股新发行的吉利汽车股份收购每 股极氪 ADS。该报价较极氪最后一个交易日收盘价溢价 13.6%，较过去 30 个 交易日成交量加权平均价溢价 20%。目前，吉利汽车持有极氪 65.7%股权，若 私有化建议落实及完成，极氪将成为吉利汽车全资子公司并从纽交所退市。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 240,194 | 336,392 | 441,972 | 514,187 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.03% | 40.05% | 31.39% | 16.34% | | 归母 ...

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The statement emphasized increased uncertainty compared to March, highlighting risks of high unemployment and rising inflation[1] - Powell summarized the current economic situation as "good now, uncertain future, let's wait and see"[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Net exports negatively impacted Q1 GDP, but private domestic final purchases remained strong[1] - The labor market is stable, not a significant source of inflationary pressure[1] - Short-term inflation expectations and consumer confidence indicators have weakened, but not strongly correlated with hard data like consumer spending[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy - High uncertainty exists regarding tariffs' scale, timing, and impact on the economy, inflation, and employment[2] - The Fed's policy response to potential supply chain issues from tariffs is deemed ineffective[2] - The Fed is not currently facing a dilemma between inflation and employment, allowing for a patient approach to monetary policy[2] Group 4: Comparison with 2019 - In 2019, the Fed's rate cuts were preemptive due to clear risks from tariffs and low inflation pressures, with unemployment dropping from 4% to 3.6%[3] - Current conditions present a greater likelihood of facing inflation and employment challenges, making preemptive cuts less feasible[4] - Inflation remains above target, with short-term inflation expectations at risk of decoupling[4] Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market reactions were relatively mild, with slight increases in stock indices and a decrease in bond yields[2] - The implied policy rate for year-end rose from 3.52% to 3.565%, while the probability of a rate cut in June dropped from 33.7% to 20.1%[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed continued to pause rate cuts for the third time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%. The difficulty of the Fed's timing rate cuts has increased. The Fed's "wait-and-see" stance continues, and it reaffirms that there is no need to rush into action. If the economic downward pressure increases significantly and the risk of inflation rebound is realized simultaneously, the current expectation of three rate cuts within the year may be revised [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - The Fed continued to pause rate cuts for the third time, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate remained at 4.4% and 4.5% respectively. After the rate decision was announced, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose from 4.26% to 4.29%, the three major U.S. stock indexes first declined and then rose, and the U.S. dollar index rose. After the press conference began, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 4.28%, with little overall change, the U.S. stocks fluctuated in the red, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen, COMEX gold fell, and crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The main adjustments in the interest rate statement revolve around the description of the economic outlook, including three points: adding "although the fluctuations in net exports have affected the relevant data" at the beginning, but emphasizing the judgment that "U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily"; pointing out that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased"; and clearly stating that the risks of high unemployment and high inflation have both risen [1][5]. 3.3 Economic Situation - The economic outlook faces high uncertainty, but there is no conclusive evidence at the data level. Powell said at the press conference that the economy remains resilient, but the outlook is still highly uncertain. If high tariffs are maintained, the negative impact on the economy will gradually emerge, which is not yet reflected in the data. In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. GDP's quarter-on-quarter annualized rate declined by 0.3%, with net exports and government consumption and investment dragging down GDP by 4.83 and 0.25 percentage points respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the University of Michigan consumer expectation index has dropped sharply, reaching a low of 47.30 as of March 2025, reflecting concerns about trade policies [1][8]. 3.4 Labor Market - The overall state of the employment market is stable, but attention should be paid to the risk of rising unemployment. In April, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States was 177,000. The service industry is still the main contributor to the employment market, but the number of new jobs in industries such as retail, leisure, and hospitality that are more sensitive to economic elasticity has slowed down significantly compared to March, and the number of new jobs in the federal government has declined for the third consecutive month. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.0%-4.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate of hourly wages slowed down [16]. 3.5 Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, and inflation expectation indicators continue to rise. Powell said at the press conference that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term or long-term, and the Fed's responsibility is to maintain the stability of long-term inflation expectations. In March, the U.S. CPI data was lower than expected across the board. Considering that the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy has not yet been reflected in the March data, its guidance for interest rate decisions is relatively limited. Recently, the University of Michigan inflation expectation index has continued to rise, increasing the difficulty of decision-making in a stagflation environment [17].

世界先进（5347.TW）FY25Q1 业绩点评及法说会纪要 25Q1 业绩同环比增长，通信、工业及车规需 求回升 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 5 月 6 日世界先进发布 2025 年 Q1 季度报告，并召开法人说明会。公 司财务季度 FY2025Q1 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q1。 2025Q1，公司实现营收 119.49 亿新台币，同比增长 24.0%，环比增长 3.4%； 毛利率为 30.1%，同比提升 6.1pct，环比提升 1.4pct。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：2025Q1 公司实现收入 119.49 亿新台币(yoy+24.0%,qoq+3.4%)， 主要得益于中国大陆刺激消费方案的持续扩大，供应链为应对关税不确定性而 提前拉货；实现毛利率 30.1%(yoy+6.1pct,qoq+1.4pct)，符合业绩指引（29%- 31%）；实现归母净利润 24.14 亿新台币（yoy+89.8%,qoq+30.7%)。 2. 业绩结构：25Q1 公司出货量为 607000 片八寸晶圆，环比增长 10%，同比 增长 29%；公司产品 ASP 下滑 5%。Q1 客户对 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 回归基本面，信用债如何配置？ ——5 月信用债策略月报 1、城投债方面，关注 3y 以内低等级与 4-5y 中高等级投资机会。对江苏、浙 江等区域，综合实力较强、存量债券余额较多，叠加化债利好保护，可在 3y 以内下沉至 AA-品种；四川、山东、河南、湖南、湖北等地可在 2y 以内下沉 至 AA-品种，天津、重庆等区域可在 2y 以内下沉至 AA(2)品种。 2、地产债方面，关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种。从板块比价来看，当 前地产债收益率具有一定吸引力，1-2yAA 品种利差在 88-98BP。4 月国务院常 务会议指出要持续稳定股市，政治局会议指出持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势， 后续仍可关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种机会。但行业信用风险尚未出 清，景气度预计仍偏低，低等级主体谨慎下沉。 3、周期债方面，煤炭债短端下沉、中高等级拉久期至 3y，钢铁债规避尾部风 险。对短期风险可控的隐含评级 AA 煤企 1-2y 品种适当下沉，中高等级可拉 长久期至 3y。今年以来动力煤供需两弱，煤炭价格持续下跌，关注煤价止跌 回稳情况，若景气度持续下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The company is projected to continue its rapid growth in 2025, with expectations of nearly 40% growth driven by the differential gear, military, and traditional businesses [8]. - The company aims to become a leading supplier in the domestic automotive transmission system and a core component supplier for robotics, with plans for new product development [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The total revenue is expected to grow from 2,360 million yuan in 2024 to 4,013 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.3%, 20.2%, 18.6%, and 19.2% respectively [4][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is projected to increase from 322 million yuan in 2024 to 684 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 76.9%, 40.4%, 23.4%, and 22.8% respectively [4][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 0.39 yuan in 2024 to 0.82 yuan in 2027 [4][9]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37 in 2024 to 17 in 2027 [4][9]. - **Price Target**: The target price is adjusted to 16.3-19.0 yuan based on a projected P/E of 30-35 for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8][18]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is projected to continue its rapid growth in 2025, with expectations of nearly 40% growth driven by the differential gear and aerospace businesses [4][8]. - The company aims to become a leading supplier in the domestic automotive transmission system and a core component supplier for robotics, with plans for new product development [4][8]. Financial Summary - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue is expected to reach 2,837 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.2% [4]. - Net profit is projected at 452 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.54 yuan [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 26 times in 2025, decreasing to 17 times by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 3.2 in 2025 to 2.6 in 2027 [4]. - **Market Performance**: - The company's stock price target is set between 16.3 and 19.0 yuan, with the current price at 14.25 yuan [4][8]. Business Growth Drivers - The differential gear business is expected to see a revenue increase of 60% in 2025, contributing significantly to net profit growth [4][8]. - The aerospace business is anticipated to grow by over 30% in 2025, supported by increased downstream installation volumes [4][8]. - Traditional businesses are projected to grow by around 5% due to recovery in exports and heavy truck sales [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has signed an investment contract with the Chongqing government to develop a smart manufacturing core component project, with an initial investment of 1 billion yuan [4][8]. - Plans include the development of new products such as hollow motor shafts and reducers to capitalize on trends in electrification and supply chain specialization [4][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业周报（20250428-20250430） 一季度板块收入端整体回暖，机构配置尚处 推荐（维持） ❑ 计算机硬件板块、软件行业营收端表现较好。以中信计算机为例，各板块 营收端表现差距不大，其中，计算机硬件板块营收增速为正的公司占比最 大，达到 60.98%。利润端，差距较小，归母净利润增速为正的公司占比均 在 50%左右。 计算机设备：该板块总计 82 家公司，共计 50 家公司营业收入正向增长， 平均增幅为 31.29%。共计 43 家公司归母净利润增幅为正，占该细分板块 公司的 52.44%。其中营收前三的公司分别为实达集团、安博通、亚信安全， 增速分别为 871.42%、444.91%、347.54%。 计算机软件：该板块总计 229 家公司，共计 125 家公司实现营业收入正向 增长，平均增幅为 8.53%。利润方面，共计 123 家公司实现归母净利润正 向变动，占该细分板块的 53.71%。其中营业收入增速前三的公司分别为宏 景科技、华是科技、信息发展，分别为 958.26%、241.85%、142.34%。 云服务：细分板块总计 45 家公司， 22 家公司实现营 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 启动极氪私有化，打造"一个吉利" 事项： ❖ 吉利汽车发布公告，宣布向极氪提交非约束性私有化要约，拟以2.566美元/18.5 元或 1.23 股新发行的吉利汽车股份收购每股极氪股份（以上两种方案股东可 选择，后同），或以 25.66 美元/185 元或 12.3 股新发行的吉利汽车股份收购每 股极氪 ADS。该报价较极氪最后一个交易日收盘价溢价 13.6%，较过去 30 个 交易日成交量加权平均价溢价 20%。目前，吉利汽车持有极氪 65.7%股权，若 私有化建议落实及完成，极氪将成为吉利汽车全资子公司并从纽交所退市。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 240,194 | 336,392 | 441,972 | 514,187 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.03% | 40.05% | 31.39% | 16.34% | | 归母 ...