Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies, strengthening watch on aluminum, suggesting watching or selling on rallies for nickel, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin, range trading for gold, bullish on silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][10][13][14][15][16][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Adopting a low - buying strategy for PVC, temporarily watching for caustic soda and soda ash, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, and expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][22][23][24][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust sideways, and apples and jujubes to trade weakly [1][26][28][29] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Adopting a short - selling strategy on near - term hog contracts on rallies and cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; being cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedging on rallies for grain holders; being bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts on dips and bearish on far - term contracts; expecting three major oils to trade sideways with rapeseed oil stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][30][33][35][37][38] Core Views - Geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics are the main factors affecting the futures market. For example, Trump's tariff policies, Fed's interest rate decisions, and changes in supply and demand of various commodities have significant impacts on prices [5][6][11][17] - Different commodities have different supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some commodities are affected by seasonal factors, while others are more influenced by policy and macroeconomic factors [8][9][19][22][31] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With market sentiment cooling and the central bank cutting policy tool rates, stock indices are expected to trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank cuts the structural monetary policy tool rate, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend. Government bonds are expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to reduced transportation, slow replenishment by traders, and weak demand, coking coal is suitable for short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: Currently, the futures price is at a neutral valuation. With weakening export expectations and short - term balanced supply and demand, rebar is expected to trade in a range, and investors can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8] - **Glass**: Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has increased. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and glass prices are expected to trade weakly. Investors can sell on rallies and focus on the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a short - term rise, copper prices face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and weak downstream demand. In the short term, copper is expected to trade at a high level, and investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Due to the weak reality of alumina surplus and strong fundamental pressure in January, aluminum prices face upward pressure. Investors are advised to strengthen watch [13] - **Nickel**: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas stimulates bullish sentiment, the fundamentals are weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade sideways, and investors are advised to watch [14][15] - **Tin**: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and downstream demand maintaining rigid procurement, tin prices are expected to trade sideways. Investors can conduct range trading or take profits on previous long positions [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical tensions and changes in the expectation of the Fed chairperson, silver and gold prices are bullish in the medium term. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is suitable for range trading [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and potential supply supplements, lithium carbonate prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors need to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering low valuation and potential policy and cost factors, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and investors can focus on positive calendar spreads [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Although there may be some support in the medium term, the rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to watch [21] - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, styrene's valuation is high. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and focus on cost and supply - demand changes in the medium to long term [21] - **Rubber**: Due to the seasonal inventory build - up, weak cost support, and high downstream production and sales pressure, rubber prices are expected to decline in the short term and trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: With increasing supply and relatively stable demand, urea prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors should focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, and export policies [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of inland supply and weak traditional downstream demand, and affected by geopolitical tensions and port arrivals, methanol prices are expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins are expected to trade weakly. Investors should focus on downstream demand, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus and rising production costs, soda ash prices may have limited downside space. Investors are advised to watch [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a recent rise, cotton prices are adjusting sideways. In the long term, the outlook is optimistic. Investors should be cautious in the short term [28] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the Spring Festival approaching, the trading of apples and jujubes is generally weak, and prices are expected to trade weakly [28][29] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short term, due to high supply pressure, the rebound of hog prices is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and investors should be cautiously bullish [30][31] - **Eggs**: With low basis and high valuation, short - term spot prices are expected to be strong. Investors can hedge post - holiday 02 and 03 contracts on rallies. In the medium and long term, supply pressure still exists [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, there is limited driving force for price increases, and investors should be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, although demand is gradually released, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which limits the upside space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be bullish on dips, while far - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies [37][38] - **Oils**: Three major oils are expected to open lower and trade weakly. Investors can focus on the strategy of narrowing the 05 spreads between rapeseed and palm oils and rapeseed and soybean oils [38][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to increase as maintenance devices have复产 plans and daily output is set to rise, but demand remains supported. With agricultural fertilizer procurement and increased raw - material replenishment in the compound fertilizer industry, and the inventory level of urea enterprises being low compared to the same period last year, the price of urea will fluctuate within the range of 1,730 - 1,830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of the week and declined slightly at the end. On January 16, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,791 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the Henan market averaged 1,744 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.81% increase [4][7]. - The basis of the main urea contract weakened first and then strengthened. On January 16, the main basis in the Henan market was - 47 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of (-86) - (-47) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly, at 28 yuan/ton on January 16, with a weekly range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of urea in China was 83.59%, down 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 54.18%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week. The daily output of urea was 20.07 tons. Some devices in Xinjiang, Shandong, Yunnan, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Sichuan and Xinjiang resumed production. Maintenance devices in Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan are planned to resume next week, indicating an expected increase in supply [4][13]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite coal was slightly stronger. As of January 15, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing - price center up 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [4][17]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 10.64%. The mainstream price of the urea market increased, leading to an increase in production profit [17]. - **Demand**: - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly sales - to - production ratio of urea enterprises was 98.8%. Agricultural demand was mainly for reserve procurement, and industrial demand was stable overall [18][19]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.08%, up 2.91 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 71.18 tons, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market was in the stage of concentrated winter - storage fertilizer sales, and raw - material inventory was replenished at appropriate prices [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 54.29%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 29,000 tons. Although a device of Shandong Heli Tai had a temporary short - stop maintenance and Hubei Huaqiang resumed production, the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises is expected to continue to increase next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, weakening the demand support for the panel market [27]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 84 tons, down 29,000 tons from the previous week and 69 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 27.2 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, totaling 267,100 tons, an increase of 4,280 receipts (85,600 tons) compared to the same period last year [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures weakened, with speculative sentiment cooling down. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle - stream has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 149,000 tons. The national factory inventory continued to decline due to the release of local speculative demand, and the inventory was further transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will take holidays, and the decline of visible inventory is expected to slow down, with overall production and sales gradually declining. Macro - policy expectations have cooled down, and the market lacks substantial upward momentum. Technically, the short - side still has the upper hand, and the price is at a critical position in the adjustment stage. It is expected that the glass price will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner, with the upper resistance level at 1130 - 1140 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures weakened last week. With the cooling of speculative sentiment, although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has reached a high level. The daily melting volume remained stable, and the national factory inventory decreased due to speculative demand. Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises will rest, the decline of visible inventory will slow down, and production and sales will decline. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and there is no substantial upward momentum in the market. Technically, the short - side dominates, and the price is in a critical adjustment position. It is expected that the glass price will be weak and volatile, with the upper resistance at 1130 - 1140. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3]. - The operation strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. 3.2 Market Review: Spot Price Decline - As of January 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,060 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,190 yuan/ton in East China (+10). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,103 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous week [10][11]. 3.3 Market Review: Narrowing of Basis - As of January 16, the futures price of soda ash was 1,192 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,103 yuan/ton, with a spread of 89 yuan/ton (+5). Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 43 yuan/ton (+41), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (-12) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit: Continuous Loss - For the natural gas - making process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (+11). For the coal - gas - making process, the cost was 1,169 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 149 yuan/ton (+1). For the petroleum - coke - making process, the cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+1) [21]. 3.5 Supply: No Change - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 149,535 tons/day (unchanged), with 212 production lines in operation [23]. 3.6 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of January 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample production factories nationwide was 5,301.3 million weight boxes (-250.5). Among them, the inventory in North China was 837.1 million weight boxes (-95.9), in Central China was 588 million weight boxes (-68.5), in East China was 1,118.8 million weight boxes (-23.7), in South China was 658.8 million weight boxes (+26), in Southwest China was 1,097 million weight boxes (-49.8), the inventory in Shahe factories was 160 million weight boxes (-56), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 386 million weight boxes (-73) [28]. 3.7 Deep - processing: Decrease in Order Days - On January 15, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 103% (-42%). On January 16, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (unchanged). In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [30]. 3.8 Demand: Decline in Year - end Automobile Production and Sales - In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. In December, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [38]. 3.9 Demand: Year - on - Year Decline in Real Estate Data - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); and the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From January 4 to January 11, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.33 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 52% and a year - on - year decrease of 40%. In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [43]. 3.10 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Weak Performance in the Futures Market - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,235 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), 1,250 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,425 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,192 yuan/ton (-36). The basis of soda ash 05 contract in Central China was 58 yuan/ton (+36) [45][47]. 3.11 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Deterioration of Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 44 yuan/ton (-4). The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production was 1,330 yuan/ton (+17), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (-38); the cost of the combined - soda process was 1,734 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-4) [52][53]. 3.12 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons), including 413,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons) and 361,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons). The loss was 117,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 20,600 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,221 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,699). As of January 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2,300 tons) [59][63]. 3.13 Cost Side - Soda Ash: Average Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 116,200 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52%. In December, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 27.2 days [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro-finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black building materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell on rallies [1][7]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; aluminum suggests enhanced observation; nickel suggests observation or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be relatively strong; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][18]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples are expected to be slightly strong sideways; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs suggest waiting to sell on rallies for hedging; corn suggests being cautious about chasing highs in the short term and selling on rallies for hedging; soymeal is recommended to be bullish on dips in the near - term contracts and bearish on rallies in the far - term contracts; oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][29]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1]. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by factors such as Fed officials' statements, employment data, and China's monetary policy, the market sentiment has cooled, and index futures are expected to trade sideways. It is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate cut of structural monetary policy tools, the bond market showed a deep "V" trend. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black building materials - **Coking coal**: With a slowdown in replenishment and cautious purchasing, and an accumulation of port inventories, the market is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. It is suitable for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in the range between valley - electricity cost and flat - electricity cost of the electric furnace. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the export is expected to weaken. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention can be paid to the positive cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern has not changed. The inventory problem will still be prominent, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: In the short term, the upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation still exists. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift in the range. It is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, and the policy is uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. It is recommended to enhance observation [12]. - **Nickel**: Although there is a reduction in nickel ore quotas, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and recovering downstream consumption, it is expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to build positions on dips [14]. - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cuts, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is for range trading [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: With supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17][18]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, it has a low valuation. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and attention can be paid to policies and cost - end disturbances [18]. - **Caustic soda**: With large supply pressure and weak demand, it is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, the valuation is high. It is for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: In a state of long - short balance, it is for range trading. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21]. - **Urea**: With an increase in supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22]. - **Methanol**: With a recovery in supply and a weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be weak in the inland market and strong in some areas. It is for range trading [24]. - **Polyolefins**: With a loose supply and a weakening demand in the traditional off - season, the price is expected to be weakly volatile [24][25]. - **Soda ash**: With an over - supply situation and rising costs, it is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the price has adjusted after a previous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26][27]. - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, with different trading situations in different regions. It is expected to be slightly strong sideways [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is showing signs of a bottom - rebound [28]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. It is suitable to sell on rallies for hedging [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to be strong seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to wait to sell on rallies for hedging [32][33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [34][35][36]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term near - term contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37][38]. - **Oils**: The three major oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [38][43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended for selling on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be held long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations; aluminum requires more observation; nickel suggests waiting or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate will trade in a range [1][11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC adopts a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile [1][17][19]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; apples are expected to be slightly strong; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26][28]. - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts should sell on rallies and long - term contracts are cautiously bullish; for eggs, the 02 contract can be hedged on rallies; for corn, short - term chasing highs should be cautious, and long - term there is support at the bottom; for soybean meal, near - term contracts are bullish and far - term contracts are bearish; for oils, soybean and palm oil are stronger than rapeseed oil, and palm oil can be bought [1][29][38]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international market trends. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1][5][8]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The US economic data has mixed impacts, and China's foreign trade is improving, but the increase in margin ratio may put pressure on the stock index. It is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Government Bonds**: Asset fluctuations are large, and there are short - term trading opportunities. The mid - term situation is unclear. The market should focus on the central bank's press conference on monetary policy, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The transportation and procurement are weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8]. - **Rebar**: The price is in the middle range. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak, and there are expectations of weakening exports. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory transfers. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a game between macro - bullishness and weak fundamentals. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but there is a long - term shortage expectation. It is recommended to hold long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina is in a weak situation, and the policy is uncertain. The aluminum price is under fundamental pressure, and it is recommended to observe more [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is cut, but the overall supply is still in excess. It is recommended to wait or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is suitable for range trading [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts, the prices are expected to be strong. Silver is recommended to hold long, and gold is for range trading [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are potential policy and cost - side impacts. It is recommended to buy at low levels [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure. There is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19]. - **Rubber**: The upstream cost is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and it is for range trading [20][21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to trade in a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to trade in a range, with some regions being strong [23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [26]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving. The price is in a high - level adjustment, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26]. - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly strong [28]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand may turn loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The long - term supply pressure still exists, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [31][33]. - **Corn**: The short - term price has selling pressure, and the long - term demand is gradually releasing. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs and hedge on rallies [34][36]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contract is bullish, and the far - term contract is bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the near - term and sell on rallies in the far - term [37][38]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to buy palm oil and pay attention to the China - Canada negotiation results [38][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1] - Rebar: Range - bound trading [1] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [1] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Range - bound trading [1] - Gold: Range - bound trading [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1] - Styrene: Range - bound trading [1] - Rubber: Range - bound trading [1] - Urea: Range - bound trading [1] - Methanol: Range - bound trading [1] - Polyolefins: Weak and oscillating [1] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Oscillating adjustment [1] - Apples: Oscillating and bullish [1] - Jujubes: Bounce back from the bottom [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [1] - Eggs: For the 02 contract, breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies [1] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rallies [1] - Soybean meal: Treat the near - term contracts bullishly on dips and the far - term contracts bearishly [1] - Oils: Soybean and palm oils are stronger than rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agricultural and livestock. It analyzes the market conditions of each sector based on factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international situation, aiming to help investors make informed decisions. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index futures**: In the medium to long term, considering the expansion of December PMI and the strong expectation of early - stage policy implementation at the beginning of the year, the market is expected to develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks may lead to range - bound trading, which helps digest overbought pressure [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: In the short term, the decline momentum of the bond market has weakened, but in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. The bond market is expected to move in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory in ports is accumulating, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a range - bound state. The static valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price rebounded last week, it is mainly due to short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction. The fundamental pattern has not changed, and it is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has experienced a "roller - coaster" ride. In the short term, the upward momentum has weakened, but in the long term, there is still a shortage expectation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the operating range may move down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina will continue, and policy expectations are uncertain. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12]. - **Nickel**: The production of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decrease, but the refining nickel is in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [14]. - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the slowdown of the US economy and the increase in industrial demand, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the medium - term price center will move up. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and be cautious about chasing highs [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, and exports may increase. Although the current supply - demand situation is still weak, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to policies and cost fluctuations [18]. - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the improvement of the market atmosphere of related commodities. It is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but the inventory in Qingdao Port is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a range [21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and the export policy [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is high, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the price in some areas is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate in a range [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to be weak and oscillating [25]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving. Although the price has adjusted recently, it is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27]. - **Apples**: The market price of apples in storage is stable, and the trading volume is not large. The overall market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market is expected to bounce back from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply and demand may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the long term, the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but it should be viewed cautiously. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on the far - term contracts [30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to rise seasonally, but the supply is relatively sufficient, which may limit the increase. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is not strongly driven, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is looser than the previous year, which may limit the increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for grain - holding entities [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The short - term M2603 contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37]. - **Oils**: The performance of soybean and palm oils is stronger than that of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil and conduct rolling position building. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - Canada negotiation from January 14 - 17 [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass recommended to sell on rallies [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; Aluminum advised to strengthen observation; Nickel advised to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver is expected to be strong; Lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC with a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see temporarily; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1][19] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Apples are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs: Near - term contracts to sell on rallies and roll short, far - term contracts to be bullish cautiously; Eggs: Current 02 contract for farmers to wait and sell on rallies for hedging; Corn: Short - term to be cautious of chasing high, grain - holding entities to sell on rallies for hedging; Soybean meal: Near - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, far - term contracts to be treated weakly; Oils: Soybean and palm oil rallies are limited, be cautious of chasing up, rapeseed oil is weak [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading guidance for various futures products in different industries, analyzing the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors of each product, and giving corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the US December non - farm payrolls were disappointing, the unemployment rate dropped, reducing January rate - cut bets. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Geopolitical and precious - metal risks increased. Considering the December PMI returning to expansion and strong expectations of early - year policy support, the market may develop further, but the index may trade sideways. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - long term and buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline momentum of the bond market has attenuated in the short term, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium term. Whether the bond - market pressure has been fully released remains to be seen. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] 2. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory at ports has accumulated, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended for short - term trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost and slightly lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. The supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Glass**: The short - term price rise is due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, but the fundamental pattern has not changed. It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9] 3. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" stage. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation and supporting factors still exist. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [11] - **Aluminum**: The weak reality of alumina surplus will continue, and the policy expectation is uncertain. The aluminum price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, and it faces great pressure in January. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is expected to be cut, but the overall nickel market remains in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and it is recommended for range trading [15] - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the disappointing US non - farm payrolls and interest - rate cut expectations, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious of opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the price is expected to move up in the medium term. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious of chasing high [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strong but may decline slightly. It is expected to trade in a range [18] 4. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering valuation and policies, it is recommended to buy at low levels [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term has delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the market atmosphere of related commodities. However, the rebound space is limited without production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the overseas gap has been filled. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term and focus on the improvement of cost and supply - demand in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, but the inventory accumulation may slow down. The downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural and industrial demand has some support, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - **Methanol**: The supply in the inland area is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by geopolitical and port - arrival factors, the price is expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, the demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 5. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price has shown high - level fluctuations after a continuous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28] - **Apples**: The market of late - Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with different trading situations in different regions. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] 6. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand relationship may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the medium - long term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [30][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient, limiting the increase. In the medium - long term, the new - laying pressure is not large, but the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell on rallies for hedging [33][34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is under selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing high in the short term and sell on rallies for hedging [35][36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to be long on dips for the near - term contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [38][39] - **Oils**: The short - term rallies of soybean and palm oil are limited, and rapeseed oil is weak. In the medium - long term, soybean and palm oil may rebound, and rapeseed oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing up for soybean and palm oil and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [39][43][44]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Profit-Taking at Highs Leads to Copper Price Correction, with Sustained Fundamental Support [1] - Report Date: January 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment was high, pushing up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction [5]. - The shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine [5][9]. - Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks [5][9]. - With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper prices first rose to a high and then corrected. As of January 9, the price closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. Concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches led to high market sentiment, pushing up copper prices. After reaching above 105,000 yuan, long positions took profits, causing the price to correct [5]. 1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The copper mine is in short supply due to disruptions. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was -$45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 11.38% [8][29]. - Demand: High copper prices are suppressing the industry, and the operating rate continues to be under pressure. As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [8][32]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventories continue to pile up. As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week-on-week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [8][37]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Due to concerns about supply shortages and regional supply-demand mismatches, market sentiment among long positions is high, continuing to push up copper prices. After copper prices reached above 105,000 yuan, the sentiment of long positions taking profits was obvious, leading to a price correction. Fundamentally, the shortage of the copper mine has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is expected to intensify concerns about the shortage of the copper mine. Currently, the inventory of COMEX copper in the United States continues to accumulate, and the expectation of tight copper supply in non-US regions continues to push up copper prices. High copper prices are putting pressure on the downstream operations in China, and domestic inventories have been accumulating for six consecutive weeks. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increasing sentiment of funds taking profits, the prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals have corrected. Overall, the tight supply trend of copper concentrates is difficult to reverse. The global energy transition, combined with the incremental demand brought by AI infrastructure construction and power grid upgrades, still provides strong upward momentum for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China: In December, the RatingDog Services PMI was 52, indicating continued expansion. The RatingDog Composite PMI final value was 51.3. The central bank stated that it will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.34% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month. China's CPI in December increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since February 2023, mainly driven by rising food prices. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month [13]. - United States: In December, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached the largest contraction since 2024, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and employment declining for the 11th consecutive month. The ISM Services PMI was 54.4, the highest in more than a year, with new orders increasing significantly and demand driving employment growth. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [13]. 2.2 Industrial News Overview - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of the year to $12,750 per ton but said prices may decline in the second half [14]. - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to a breakdown in negotiations, and the mine is almost completely shut down [14]. - The US government is considering investing in a key mineral mining project in Greenland operated by Amaroq [14]. - The Trump administration and Congress plan to revoke the mining ban in northern Minnesota imposed by the Biden administration, which will benefit the Twin Metals copper - cobalt - nickel mine project [14]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is expected to pass the EU's anti - monopoly review [14]. 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper prices reached a new high, and the spot market was冷清, with transactions falling into a discount. As spot transactions weakened, spot quotes continued to be lowered, and the market discount widened. Subsequently, as copper prices fell, downstream buyers replenished their stocks, and overall trading improved, narrowing the discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper price spread weakened [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 9, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 206,491 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 275,814.8 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21.43%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased [20]. - As of January 2, the net long position of investment companies and credit institutions in LME copper was 3,078.98 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 33.06%. As of January 6, the net long position of asset management institutions in COMEX copper was 68,242 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - The shortage of copper concentrates persists due to disruptions in the copper mine. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 9, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 428,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 43.39%. As of January 9, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $45/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to reach a historical low. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The actual impact of smelter maintenance in December was small, and the supply of scrap - derived anode copper increased, leading to a month - on - month increase in the production of some smelters. The strong sulfuric acid price in December offset smelting losses, and smelters had little intention to cut production voluntarily [29]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 8, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 28.54 percentage points. The New Year's Day holiday and high copper prices restricted the operating rate. In December, the operating rates of copper strips and copper rods were 68.21% and 52.74% respectively. High copper prices have severely weakened the ability of end - users to accept high - priced raw materials, and the order volume has significantly shrunk, causing the operating rate of copper strip enterprises to decline. Most brass rod producers increased production to meet annual output targets, driving a temporary increase in the industry's operating rate. In November, the operating rates of copper tubes and copper rods were 63.82% and 86.30% respectively. The operating rate of copper tubes in November decreased significantly year - on - year, mainly affected by the slowdown in air - conditioning production scheduling and the main engine factory's production speed. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, driven by high demand from the power and energy storage sectors [32]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 9, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22%. As of January 8, the inventory in the mainstream domestic regions monitored by SMM increased by 6.29% week - on - week compared to last Thursday, accumulating for six consecutive weeks, and the total inventory increased by 168,100 tons compared to the same period last year. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. As of January 9, the LME copper inventory was 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the accumulation of COMEX inventory continued to increase [37].