Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.5%, and the position decreased by 18,176 lots to 176,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2509 closed at 48,720 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%, and the position decreased by 12,729 lots to 98,000 lots [2]. - The policy expectations for polysilicon have peaked, and its valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's focus has shifted to industrial supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are anchored to cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. News of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium [2]. - Continuously track the opportunity to short SI and long PS during the centralized integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production in the southwest of industrial silicon. Industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies, and the resumption of production in the southwest will be the marginal driving factor [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,660 yuan/ton on August 1 to 8,365 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 295 yuan/ton. Spot prices of various grades also generally declined, with the price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropping to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing to 510 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 204, and the total social inventory decreased by 5,400 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,200 yuan/ton on August 1 to 48,720 yuan/ton on August 4, a decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The price of N - type re - fed silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 3,930 yuan/ton. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Include the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. - **Inventory**: Present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Display the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][30]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in commodity research, focus on different aspects of the non - ferrous and new energy industries, and have provided high - quality research reports and services [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - range Fluctuation [1] - Glass: Bearish Fluctuation [1] Core Views - Urea: The domestic urea fundamentals have little improvement, but the international market and Indian tender may boost short - term market sentiment. The urea futures price is expected to be bullish in the short term, but one should not be overly optimistic about the upside in the context of supply guarantee and price stability [1]. - Soda Ash: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, but external factors will increase market volatility. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the long - term supply - demand pressure is not optimistic [1]. - Glass: The sentiment in the glass market has declined significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the overall trend of the commodity market and policy orientation. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread to return [1]. Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 200 [4]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the daily output of the urea industry was 190,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 14,700 tons from the same period last year; the industry's operating rate was 82.24%, 2.59 percentage points higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4]. - On August 4, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were: Shandong 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,760 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), Anhui 1,780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,650 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data: On August 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 2,790, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,497; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1,700, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On August 4, the spot prices of soda ash were: North China light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1,400 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,450 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1,300 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,350 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 1,120 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,120 yuan/ton [6]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 85.47%, compared with 84.75% on the previous working day [7]. - Longzhong data: On August 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,221 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price spreads between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][10][12][15][17][18]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research. He has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [20].

Group 1: Index Trends - On August 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points with a trading volume of 639.776 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points with a trading volume of 858.775 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% with a trading volume of 329.555 billion yuan, opening at 6637.84, closing at 6739.69, with a daily high of 6739.73 and a low of 6631.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 236.649 billion yuan, opening at 6190.34, closing at 6261.73, with a daily high of 6261.96 and a low of 6187.62 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% with a trading volume of 80.252 billion yuan, opening at 2748.62, closing at 2769.39, with a daily high of 2769.39 and a low of 2748.62 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 69.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 48.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, media, and non - ferrous metals significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.52, IM01 of - 107.93, IM02 of - 294.98, and IM03 of - 466.83 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.72, IC01 of - 96.84, IC02 of - 247.57, and IC03 of - 377.49 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.85, IF01 of - 19.1, IF02 of - 50.68, and IF03 of - 81.55 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.09, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 2.36, and IH03 of 2.52 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00 etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791 etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318 etc. [22]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098 etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889 etc. [24].

Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various black commodities on August 5, 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It provides short - term price trend predictions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market had a narrow - range shock. The inventory increased, indicating pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals. However, expectations of anti - involution policies and rumors of military parade production restrictions boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the rebar futures market will have a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose. The supply decreased as Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and the demand weakened with a drop in molten iron production. Considering the "anti - involution" sentiment and military parade production restrictions, it is expected that the iron ore price will show an oscillatory consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and the downstream was replenishing stocks. After the fifth round of coke price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources declined. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the fifth round of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved, and the production remained stable. The cost pressure eased, and the rigid demand from steel mills continued. It is expected that the coke futures market will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The ferromanganese silicon futures price had a narrow - range shock. The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the market returned to fundamental trading. The production increased in July, while the demand from steel mills was weak. Considering the tight spot market, it is expected that the ferromanganese silicon price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The "anti - involution" driver cooled down, and the supply increased in July. The demand from the steel industry was weak, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will have a wide - range shock in the short term [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Basis**: It shows the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis for different contracts of each commodity [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their month - on - month changes in different regions for each commodity are presented [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar futures trading profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) of black commodities is provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different periods are shown, helping to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different - period contracts of various black commodities are provided, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract months [26][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts of cross - commodity spreads of black commodities are presented, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the futures trading profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar are provided to show the profit situation of the rebar industry over time [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, professional backgrounds, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. On Monday, corn's weighted contract positions increased while the futures price was weak. Spot trading weakened with prices in Northeast China, North China, and sales areas showing a weak - stable trend. The 9 - month contract fell below 2300 yuan, and the 1 - month contract is under pressure due to expected high yields [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybean futures rose on Monday, but US soybeans are restricted by large global supplies. In China, soybean meal supply is sufficient, and inventory is rising, but the market expects the inventory peak to pass and the basis to gradually return. A narrow - range oscillation is expected, and 11 - 1, 1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil fell on Monday due to concerns about increased production and inventory. In China, the market sentiment is weak, with palm oil falling and soybean oil relatively stable. The overall oils market shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, and an intraday trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The increase in the number of laying hens has led to a bearish sentiment. On Monday, the near - month egg contracts fell significantly, and the spot price also declined. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price may weaken further [2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The 2509 pig futures contract showed a slight decline on Monday. The supply of pigs is increasing, but terminal demand is weak. Policy support exists, so the price is expected to oscillate. The futures and spot prices are at the important 14000 - yuan/ton level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [4]. - As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key Chinese regions was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) from the previous week and an increase of 3400 tons (0.59%) from the same period last year [4]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's estimated palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease from the same period last month [4]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's estimated palm oil inventory in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons (up 10.8% from June), production was 1.83 million tons (up 8% from June), and exports were 1.3 million tons (up 3.2% from June) [4]. - In July, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to high oil - mill operating rates. The total soybean crushing volume was 10.1 million tons, basically the same as the previous month and a 14.59% increase year - on - year [5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents multiple charts of contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][9][10][13]. - The report also presents multiple charts of contract basis, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 4, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.09% to 68,920 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,250 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and inventory increased 5,998 tons to 12,603 tons [3]. - The supply - demand balance in August may further narrow. Weekly production continued to slow down, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. The lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. Social inventory has seen its first destocking since the end of May, but there is still about 142,000 tons [3]. - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices have fallen from their highs. The market focus is on the uncertainty of whether Jiaxiaowo will stop production. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipt inventory, there is a certain re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 68,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 69,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,085 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,710 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,280 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 71,350 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 69,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 65,620 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 70,770 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 60,520 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.2 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 52,750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,076.1 yuan/ton, down 247 yuan [5]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials showed small increases, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells & Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心下移，其中 WTI 9月合约收盘下跌 1.04 美元至 66.29 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.54%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 0.91 美元至 68.76 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.31%。SC2509 以 510.2 元/桶收盘，下跌 6.6 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 1.28%。OPEC+周日同意将 9 月的石油产量提高 54.7 万 | | | | 桶/日，这是 OPEC+为夺回市场份额而实施的一系列加速增产行 | | | | 动中的最新举措，其理由是经济健康和库存低。此举符合市场预 | | | | 期，并标志着 OPEC+全面提前解除了其最大规模的减产协议，加 | | | | 250 万桶/日，约占全球需求量的 2.4%。 上阿联酋单独增产，合计约 | | | 原油 | 美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅 | 震荡 | | | 大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The A - share market oscillated and rose yesterday, with the Wind All - A index up 0.76% and a trading volume of 1.52 trillion yuan. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise has three logics: long - term, market expectations of fiscal policy shift to consumption promotion and inflation recovery, with foreign capital inflows; medium - term, the "anti - involution" policy and infrastructure investment benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, abundant capital liquidity. It is advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.9 billion yuan. The "anti - involution" policy met market expectations. In the short term, the bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short - term treasury bonds are expected to be strong [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 1.04%, CSI 500 up 0.78%, SSE 50 up 0.55%, and SSE 300 up 0.39%. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step. Future central government financing through central bank bond purchases and more fiscal support may drive inflation. The stock market rise is due to long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors, and investors should wait for clearer signals [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, the 5 - year fell, and the 2 - year was stable. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net injection. Short - term bond market is expected to repair [2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 4, 2025, IH rose by 0.58%, IF by 0.58%, IC by 1.06%, and IM by 1.53% compared to August 1 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.55%, SSE 300 rose 0.39%, CSI 500 rose 0.78%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.04% on August 4, 2025, compared to August 1 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 4, 2025, TS was flat, TF was flat, T rose 0.03%, and TL rose 0.13% compared to August 1 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On August 4, 2025, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased compared to August 1 [3]. 3.3 Market News - In July, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][7][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the trends of US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and currency indices [21][22][23][25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic of cotton has changed, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new cotton year. In the international market, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the domestic market, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, while the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is still in a high - yield pattern. The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton production in 2025/26 would be 25.783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,000 tons or 1.2%, but there is an expectation of an increase later. The estimated production of Chinese cotton is 6.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,000 tons or 3.1%, but the market believes there is an upward adjustment space of about 500,000 tons. Recently, the United States has been affected by drought, but the actual impact is limited, and the good - to - excellent rate of American cotton is still 55% [6]. - In 2025, the actual sown area of domestic cotton increased month - on - month, and the total output is expected to increase by 2.8% year - on - year. The actual sown area of the whole country is 4.5803 million hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the estimated output is 6.864 million tons [49]. - The sales rate of lint cotton is much higher than the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the sales volume of cotton was 6.44 million tons, and the sales rate was 96.5% [57]. Demand Side - The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton consumption in 2025/26 would be 25.718 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 309,000 tons or 1.2%. The estimated consumption of Chinese cotton is 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 109,000 tons or 1.2%, and China is the only major cotton - consuming country with a year - on - year decrease [7]. - In June, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in China were 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 742.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing products were 89.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 534.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products is lower than that of social retail sales [7]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 47.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 44.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [7]. Import and Export - In June, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, hitting a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - In June 2025, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 70.519 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in June was 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.79%, and the cumulative export from January to June was 73.459 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Inventory - As of mid - July, China's commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 287,400 tons; the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,900 tons; the total was 3.4245 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 308,300 tons [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.62 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33.48 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 31.36 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days; the cotton - yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 30.14 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 days. The cotton - yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.48 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 37.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 days [9]. International Market - After the end of the macro super - week, subsequent economic data still need continuous attention, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The price of American cotton is under pressure, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in September is about 80%. Overall, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and if there are unexpected disturbances, the center of gravity may rise slightly [11]. Domestic Market - The driving logic has changed rapidly, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new domestic cotton year. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [12].