Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the current new - old crop transition period, the spot market shows weak prices in North Ports and strong prices in production areas, with chaotic and differentiated quotes. Corn futures prices can move up or down. The short - term 11 - month contract has a pressure area at 2180 - 2200, with a short - term adjustment expected and a medium - term bearish outlook due to expected high yields and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday. Analysts expect a decrease in US soybean yield, export estimates, and a slight reduction in inventory. Domestic soybean meal prices are mainly oscillating, with stable import costs, sufficient domestic supply, and increased apparent consumption. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday, but weak demand curbed the increase. Canadian rapeseed and US soybean oil also rose. Domestic oil futures prices are oscillating. Strategies include trading volatility or selling put options [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures oscillated on Thursday. Seasonal increases support spot prices, but supply pressure limits the rebound. With the current long - short game, it is recommended to wait and see and focus on market sentiment and supply - side changes [1][2]. - Pigs: Pig futures continued to oscillate on Thursday. Spot prices are generally stable with partial adjustments. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - EU Soft Wheat and Corn: The EU's 2025/26 soft wheat production is expected to reach a record high of 136.1 million tons, up 330,000 tons from last month's forecast and 19.8% higher than the previous season. However, EU soft wheat exports are weak due to Russian competition and lack of Chinese imports. The EU's corn production forecast is lowered to 55.7 million tons, a 5.4% decrease from 2024/25 due to adverse weather [3]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's yield, oil extraction rate, and production decreased compared to the same period last month [3]. - Imported Soybean Auction: On September 11, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 22,524.3 tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average price of 3801 yuan/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11]. - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue a mild recovery supported by the Fed's expected rate - cut, expectations of domestic pro - growth policies, and the anticipated improvement in fundamentals during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, but the market may be cautious around the Fed's interest - rate meeting next week [1] - Aluminum prices are generally strong. Alumina has weak support below, while aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term. The inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots is postponed [2] - For nickel, with the marginal improvement of ferronickel and the new energy sector, there are opportunities to go long at low prices, but continuous inventory accumulation on the LME exerts pressure on prices [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Copper - Macro: US inflation in August was in line with expectations, and a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut next week is almost certain. China's CPI in August turned negative year - on - year, and the finance minister emphasized proactive macro - policies [1] - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 875 tons, Comex copper increased by 1023 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 902 tons, and BC copper increased by 1001 tons [1] - Demand: High copper prices led to weak downstream purchasing sentiment [1] Aluminum - Price: Alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly [1][2] - Inventory: The inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots was postponed, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.0 million tons [2][6] - Market situation: Alumina has a surplus pattern, and the new energy and other sectors' peak - season expectations have started [2] Nickel - Price: Both LME and SHFE nickel prices rose [2] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 2058 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 193 tons [2] - Market situation: Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless - steel cost support strengthened, and the price of new - energy raw materials may remain strong [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Price: The price of flat - water copper increased by 450 yuan/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 221.6 yuan [5] - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 2103 tons, and LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton [5] Lead - Price: The average price of 1 lead increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead increased by 50 yuan/ton [5] - Inventory: SHFE lead inventory increased by 2162 tons, and the active - contract import loss increased by 26 yuan [5] Aluminum - Price: Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the spot premium increased by 30 yuan/ton [6] - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 1518 tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.0 million tons [6] Nickel - Price: The price of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton [6] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 2058 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory increased by 547 tons [6] Zinc - Price: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.2%, and the price of zinc alloy and zinc oxide increased [8] - Inventory: SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [8] Tin - Price: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.7%, and the price of tin concentrate increased by 900 yuan/metal ton [8] - Inventory: SHFE tin inventory increased by 207 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 28328 yuan [8] 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including those for spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals [8][13][16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have achieved many honors and results [44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a "narrowing" trend since August, with high trading congestion in some themes. Short - term corrections are normal due to factors like profit - taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed and expected multiple interest rate cuts this year benefit the A - share market. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The liquidity - driven market is likely to continue with obvious structural features and faster sector rotation [1] - For treasury bonds, in September, the risk of significant fluctuations in the capital market is low, and short - term bonds are relatively stable. With the improvement of the competitive environment and the stronger stock market, long - term bonds will see greater fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market rose strongly throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both rising over 5%. More than 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets were up, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures fell 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.06%. The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. The net investment was 7.94 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 increased by 6bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 increased by 0.5bp to 1.48% [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, IH rose 52.4 points (1.78%), IF rose 129.6 points (2.92%), IC rose 261.2 points (3.81%), and IM rose 236.8 points (3.31%) [3] 3.2.2 Stock Indexes - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 43.5 points (1.48%), the CSI 300 Index rose 102.7 points (2.31%), the CSI 500 Index rose 190.6 points (2.75%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 169.7 points (2.35%) [3] 3.2.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On September 11, 2025, compared with September 10, 2025, TS rose 0.06 points (0.06%), TF rose 0.165 points (0.16%), T rose 0.09 points (0.08%), and TL fell 0.02 points (- 0.02%) [3] 3.3 Market News - The State Council has approved the implementation of 10 pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in Beijing Sub - center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Hefei Metropolitan Area, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, nine mainland cities in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, Chongqing, and Chengdu for a period of two years starting from the date of approval [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, the trends of their monthly basis, etc [7][8][10] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [23][24][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） 三、市场信息 1、9 月 10 日棉花期货仓单数量 5322 张，较上一交易日下降 137 张，有效预报 0 张。 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | 35 | -10 | 1431 | -69 | 新疆 | 15210 | -43 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 15286 | -49 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 26 | 8 | 400 | -17 | 南宁 | 5880 | 0 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5935 | 0 | 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.39%，报收 66.72 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.18%，报收 13855 左右，美元指数震荡偏弱， ...

1. Index Trends - On September 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to close at 3812.22 points, with a trading volume of 821.114 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.38% to close at 12557.68 points, with a trading volume of 1157.009 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, with a trading volume of 396.105 billion yuan. The opening price was 7214.23, the closing price was 7230.17, the highest price was 7296.0, and the lowest price was 7179.76 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.05%, with a trading volume of 359.667 billion yuan. The opening price was 6911.11, the closing price was 6932.11, the highest price was 6977.77, and the lowest price was 6870.4 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.37%, with a trading volume of 133.802 billion yuan. The opening price was 2928.11, the closing price was 2939.59, the highest price was 2954.44, and the lowest price was 2923.56 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 4.14 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as computer, communication, and electronics had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 3.14 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, media, and national defense and military industry had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 9.1 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, communication, and computer had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors such as pharmaceuticals, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 10.96 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as electronics, food and beverage, and communication had a significant upward pull on the index, while the non - banking financial sector had a significant downward pull [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 48.92, IM01 had - 111.1, IM02 had - 256.62, and IM03 had - 440.96 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 45.02, IC01 had - 105.35, IC02 had - 219.54, and IC03 had - 367.48 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.15, IF01 had - 17.91, IF02 had - 37.36, and IF03 had - 57.04 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.43, IH01 had - 2.54, IH02 had - 2.66, and IH03 had - 0.32 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [24]. - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [25]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market for various agricultural products is in a state of oscillation. Corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs are all expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - For corn, the market is affected by factors such as the increase in new grain listings and the transition of old - grain prices to new - grain prices. In the short - term, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust, and in the medium - term, it is judged to be weak due to expected high yields and lower costs [1]. - Regarding soybean meal, the international market has changes in supply and demand expectations, and the domestic market has sufficient spot goods and stable import costs. Without significant driving factors, the price will oscillate, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - In the case of oils, the international market has a negative impact on prices, but there are also some positive factors such as potential bio - diesel policy changes. The market is currently oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - For eggs, the spot price has a certain increase, but the rebound is limited. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - For pigs, the futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot price is weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn decreased in position and price on Wednesday. The trading enthusiasm of both long and short sides has cooled. As the listing volume of new corn in western Liaoning increases, the price returns to range fluctuations. The old grain in the Northeast is still strong, and the price in North China is weakly stable. The price in the sales area has a local increase. Technically, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term and be weak in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Wednesday. Analysts expect a decrease in US soybean yield, export, and inventory. The strengthening of US soybean oil is due to potential bio - diesel policy changes. The domestic spot price of soybean meal oscillates, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day due to the decline of related oils and weak exports. The MPOB August supply - demand report is slightly bearish. The domestic oil futures price is weak. The market is oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2510 and 2511 contracts of eggs showed a weak trend on Wednesday. The spot price increased slightly. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price oscillated strongly on Wednesday, while the spot price was weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Malaysia's sustainable palm oil certification (MSPO) has been recognized by the EU, which helps relevant enterprises comply with EU deforestation regulations [3]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 decreased compared with the same period last month, with a decrease of 1.2% - 8.4% according to different survey agencies [3]. - The MPOB August supply - demand report shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, the production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and the export decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [3]. - In the 36th week of 2025 (September 1 - 5), the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities increased by 2.0% month - on - month, decreased by 29.7% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous week. The price first rose and then fell during the week [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation on September 16, inviting 25 enterprises to participate [5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][25]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report date: September 11, 2025 [1] Group 2: Contract Spreads - I05 closed at 781.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; I09 closed at 847.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; I01 closed at 805.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 was -66.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; I09 - I01 was 42.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; I01 - I05 was 24.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 7 yuan to 63 yuan, while that of FMG blended fines increased by 1 yuan to 72 yuan [6] Charts - Charts presented the basis trends of different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines had a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others were 0 yuan/ton [11] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [11] - Four more brands (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11][12] Group 5: Variety Spreads Data - Various variety spreads changed. For example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines decreased by 5 yuan to 136 yuan/ton, and the spread of Qian'an Concentrate - Carajás fines increased by 12 yuan to 96 yuan/ton [13] Charts - Charts showed the trends of different variety spreads, such as lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][19][20] Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 10, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.87% to 70,720 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,150 yuan to 73,450 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 1,150 yuan to 71,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 500 yuan/ton to 74,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 38,101 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased slightly. The weekly production rose by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. In September, the expected production of lithium carbonate is estimated to increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons. In terms of demand, the expected production of ternary materials in September is projected to decline by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 6% to 335,250 tons. Regarding inventory, the weekly inventory depletion accelerated, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons [3]. - Amid news - related disturbances, the futures price opened significantly lower and then rebounded. However, due to the expected resumption of production, the bullish logic has weakened, and there is certain pressure on the upside. Before the actual resumption of projects, strong demand will support the price, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs continuous attention [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry chain declined on September 10, 2025. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract dropped by 2,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salts also decreased. However, the prices of some products like battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium - bearing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium - phosphorus - aluminum stone from 2024 to September 10, 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts 5 - 10 present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to September 2025 [10][12]. 3.2.3 Spreads - Charts 11 - 22 display the price spreads between different lithium - related products and the basis from 2024 to September 2025 [16][18][19][21]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to September 2025 [23][25][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts 21 - 24 present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to September 2025 [29][32]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts 25 - 39 show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors of lithium carbonate from January 16, 2025, to September 4, 2025 [36][38]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - Chart 42 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole - piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole - piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to September 2025 [42]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The non - ferrous research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new - energy research and have provided services and reports for clients [44][45]. 3.4 Contact Information - The company is located at Building 6, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [48].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素期货价格延续偏弱运行趋势，主力01合约收盘价1669元/吨，跌幅1.01%。 现货市场继续走弱，昨日主流地区市场价格回落10～20元/吨不等，山东、河南地区 | | | | 市场价格均为1670元/吨，日环比分别持平、继续下降10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素 | | | | 供应水平继续窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量18.51万吨，日环比增0.02万吨。需求端情 | | | 尿素 | 绪依旧偏弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率依旧维持10%~20%的低位，仅个别地区产销 | 宽幅震荡 | | | 超110%。印标结果及消息扰动依旧存在，最新消息称采购量基本 合其计划采购量 | | | | ，并未有超预期表现。且在国内需求力度不足的情况下行业库存本周增幅3.44%。后 | | | | 续出口仍处于兑现阶段，但市场新增预期或 不再，尿素期货价格承压运行 率较 | | | | 大，持续关注印标动态、出口动态、 观及商品市场整体情绪。 | | | | ...