1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news indicates that the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 may drop significantly compared to 2025, and the Indonesian government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula for nickel commodities. In addition, Vale Indonesia has suspended nickel ore mining due to the unapproved production plan. Fundamentally, the domestic trade price and premium of nickel ore are basically stable. The weekly nickel - iron transaction price has increased, and the contraction of stainless - steel supply and the strengthening of prices have accelerated inventory depletion. The raw material price is stronger than the finished product, the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate has turned negative, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium have all strengthened, the demand has weakened, and the terminal is facing cost pressure. Influenced by the news, the stock and commodity markets resonate, and the nickel price strengthens, but the actual implementation situation is unknown, so market sentiment should be monitored [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - In the month, the price of Shanghai Nickel increased by 12.6%, and the price of LME Nickel increased by 12.5%. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of products in other links of the industrial chain all strengthened [5]. 3.2 Base Price Difference, Spread & Import Profit and Loss - Relevant charts such as the seasonal chart of Shanghai Nickel basis, the price difference between the active and continuous 3 - month contracts of Shanghai Nickel, and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][7]. 3.3 Inventory - During the week, the LME inventory decreased by 414 tons to 255,282 tons; the Shanghai Nickel inventory decreased by 132 tons to 37,666 tons, the social inventory increased by 556 tons to 58,920 tons, and the bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [5][13]. 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5 per wet ton, and the premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per wet ton to $9.0 per wet ton [5][19]. 3.4.2 Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the production of refined nickel is expected to increase by 35.8% month - on - month to 37,200 tons [5][21]. 3.4.3 Ferronickel - In January 2026, the domestic ferronickel production decreased by 1% month - on - month to 21,000 nickel tons; the tender/transaction price increased, and a steel mill in South China inquired about high - nickel ferronickel at 910 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [5][23]. 3.4.4 Intermediate Products - The spot average prices of MHP and nickel matte increased, and the trading activity increased [5][26]. 3.4.5 Nickel Sulfate - The cost of nickel sulfate increased, and the immediate profit of nickel sulfate was in the red [5][31]. 3.4.6 Scrap Stainless Steel - Relevant charts about the usage and proportion of 300 - series and 200 - series scrap stainless - steel enterprises in China are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [38][39]. 3.4.7 Primary Nickel - Relevant charts about domestic primary nickel production and estimated net imports of primary nickel are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [41][42]. 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 New Energy - In January 2026, the production of ternary precursors is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month to 83,260 tons; the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh. The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026, and new - energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, with a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][47][56]. 3.5.2 Stainless Steel - Most stainless - steel prices increased in the month. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream domestic markets was 977,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%, among which the 300 - series decreased by 8,500 tons to 620,000 tons. The production schedule in January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27%. Among them, the 200 - series was 998,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% and a year - on - year increase of 29.6%; the 300 - series was 1.7193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 9.78%; the 400 - series was 609,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.03% and a year - on - year increase of 16.06%. The theoretical profit was repaired in the month [5][4][77]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Relevant charts about the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate are presented, but no specific data analysis is provided [93][94][96]. 3.7 Options - Relevant charts such as historical volatility and historical volatility cone are presented, as well as the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest related to the closing price of Shanghai Nickel, but no specific data analysis is provided [97][98][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side of PX, PTA, and MEG has more disturbances, and polyester prices fluctuate following the cost. The game between the downward feedback from downstream and the expected improvement remains the focus of market contradictions. For PX, beware of the real - world situation dragging it down; for PTA, it is expected to decline; for MEG, it is expected to fluctuate after a rebound [2][155]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Fluctuations, Geopolitical Factors Affect Crude Oil Price - **Futures Price**: From November 28, 2025, to December 30, 2025, the PTA closing price increased from 4700 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.4%; the MEG closing price decreased from 3885 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0%; the PX closing price increased from 6830 yuan/ton to 7316 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.1% [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The PTA, MEG, and PX basis and spreads have changed to varying degrees. For example, the PTA basis decreased from - 37 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 24.3% [15]. - **Price Differences**: The TA - EG spread widened significantly, with a change value of 482 yuan/ton and a rise of 59.1%. The TA - PX * 0.656 spread also increased, with a change value of 97 yuan/ton and a rise of 44.2%. There were also changes in the price differences between raw materials such as PX - crude oil, PX - MX, etc. [18][22]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance - **PX**: As of December 26, 2025, the Asian PX operating rate was 79.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating rate was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. A 70 - ton PX device in the Northeast is restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [36]. - **PTA**: As of December 26, 2025, the PTA operating rate was 72.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. Multiple PTA devices have restarted, such as the 55 - ton PTA device of FCFC in Taiwan and the 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Zhongtai Petrochemical [38]. - **MEG**: As of December 26, 2025, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.32% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.28% (a month - on - month increase of 4.52%). Multiple MEG devices in Taiwan, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have planned maintenance [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: India's BIS Certification Cancelled - **PX**: In November 2025, the total import volume of PX in mainland China was about 817,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% [60]. - **PTA**: In November 2025, the PTA import volume was 300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 89.94%; the export volume was 358,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.93%. The cumulative export volume from January to November 2025 was 3.4553 million tons, close to the full - year level in 2023 [65]. - **MEG**: In November 2025, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 6.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [68]. - **Polyester**: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 96,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons [73]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished - Product Inventory Reduction - **PTA**: The total PTA inventory is at the bottom. - **MEG**: On December 29, 2025, the inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 730,000 tons [85]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Device Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the total planned reduction of three major polyester filament factories was about 2.819 million tons. Multiple devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance, and some devices have restarted [87]. - **Domestic Polyester - Related Data**: The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, looms, etc. have decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory days and cash flows of some products have also changed [88]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand has declined, such as the decline in textile and clothing exports. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 1.9%, and in November, it decreased by 5.1% [105]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **PTA**: As of December 30, 2025, the total PTA position was 1,890,052 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120]. - **MEG**: As of December 30, 2025, the total MEG position was 341,247 lots, showing a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year slight decrease [120]. - **PX**: As of December 30, 2025, the total PX position was 458,083 lots, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [120].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January, the main production center of industrial silicon will continue to shift northward. Although there is a reduction in production due to environmental protection control, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon will have limited - production reduction, silicone will have group - reduction, and aluminum alloy will have environmental - protection reduction. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and it is advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds. [4] - Although the photovoltaic industry chain has seen price increases driven by battery cells recently, due to the transmission blockage in the component segment, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries will further expand the scale of production reduction. [4] - In January, with industry self - discipline and the joint production reduction of silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, which will provide strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's implementation of risk - control position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by silicon material factories, downstream receiving sentiment, and the inventory dynamics of the industrial chain. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - In December, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 31st, the main contract closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.96%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 57,920 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 2.65%. [5] 3.2 Spot Price - All industrial silicon spot prices decreased. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton. Polysilicon P - type remained stable at 44,000 yuan/ton, and N - type increased by 800 yuan/ton to 51,800 yuan/ton. [5] 3.3 Spread - In December, the spread between 553 widened, the spread between high - and low - grade products narrowed, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 narrowed. The industrial silicon spot discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot discount narrowed to 4,670 yuan/ton. [5][17] 3.4 Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in December will be 348,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The number of monthly open furnaces decreased by 14 to 243, and the furnace - opening rate decreased by 1.76% to 0.5%. [4][5] 3.5 Demand - In December, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons to 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The DMC production decreased by 13,200 tons to 196,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. [4][5] 3.6 Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 17,200 tons to 50,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 121,000 tons. In terms of social inventory, the overall inventory of industrial silicon in December increased by 7,750 tons to 456,000 tons, including a 2,750 - ton increase in factory inventory to 266,000 tons; Huangpu Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 58,000 tons, Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 80,000 tons, and Kunming Port's inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.62 tons to 30.8 tons. [4][5]

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：节前有补库需求，价格有一定支撑 p 2 铁合金：节前有补库需求，价格有一定支撑 锰 硅 供应：依据铁合金在线数据，12月全国锰硅产量92.85万吨，环比小幅增加，全年锰硅产量1089.05万吨，同比增加36万吨，增幅为 3.4%。 需求：螺纹产量、样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值均处于历史同期偏低水平。11月我国粗钢产量6987.1万吨，同比下降10.88%。截至12月 末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.26万吨，环比增加0.22%，绝对值仍位于近年来同期最低值。12月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为15.52天，环比 下降0.32天，同比下降0.33天。 库存：样本企业库存持续累积，刷新近年来新高。12月63家样本企业库存持续累积，截至12月末为38.6万吨，刷新近年来新高，同比 增幅超18万吨。 成本与利润：主要原材料价格持稳。依据铁合金在线，截至12月末，内蒙地区锰硅生产成本约5695元/吨，利润率约-2.01%；宁夏地 区约5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the destocking pace slowed down, and both supply and demand weakened. The market will shift from destocking to inventory accumulation, with an estimated inventory increase of at least about 5,000 tons. The fundamental weakening is expected to have a phased negative impact on prices. However, due to the current inventory structure and the medium - to - long - term bullish trading logic for lithium prices, there will still be restocking demand when prices fall [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - The monthly main contract of lithium carbonate rose 26%, and the prices across the industry chain strengthened. For example, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased from 96,420 yuan/ton on November 28, 2025, to 121,580 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, with an increase of 25,160 yuan/ton [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons. Specifically, downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, inventory in other links increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons [4][5][19]. 3.3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - The document presents charts of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, and export profit of lithium hydroxide, etc., but no specific profit data is summarized [28][29]. 3.4 Production 3.4.1 Lithium Carbonate - Weekly production increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. Lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increased by 60 tons to 13,924 tons, lithium mica production increased by 70 tons to 2,936 tons, salt - lake lithium production increased by 70 tons to 3,145 tons, and recycled material - derived lithium production increased by 59 tons to 2,415 tons. In January 2026, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons, with salt - lake, mica, and recycled lithium production decreasing by 0.3%, 6.4%, and 7.4% respectively, and lithium spodumene - derived lithium production increasing by 0.7% [4][5][41]. 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - In January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons [4][5]. 3.4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In January 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons [4][5][72]. 3.4.4 Lithium Batteries - In January 2026, the production of ternary power batteries is expected to decrease by 6.15% month - on - month to 28.7 GWh, the production of lithium - iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month - on - month to 90.01 GWh, and the production of lithium - iron energy - storage batteries is expected to increase by 0.99% month - on - month to 63.15 GWh [4][5][81]. 3.5 Terminal 3.5.1 New Energy Vehicles - The Passenger Car Association expects that the auto market will have a good start in January 2026. New energy vehicles are expected to have a slight increase of 5% in the first quarter, but a 36% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][5][86]. 3.5.2 Energy Storage - The document presents charts of energy - storage battery capacity, start - up rate, bidding, winning bids, and installation, but no specific summarized data is provided [89][90]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The document presents charts of the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, but no specific summarized balance data is provided [91][92]. 3.7 Options - The document presents charts of historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of option trading volume and open interest of lithium carbonate closing prices, but no specific summarized data is provided [93][95][96].

钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2026 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：供需压力逐步累积，钢价或将震荡偏弱 p 2 1.2 价格：12月国际市场热卷价格涨跌互现，美国、欧盟、东南亚等有所上涨，印度、中东等有所下跌 单位：美元/吨 | | | 热轧板卷 | | | 螺纹钢 | | | 方坯 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | 12月31日 | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | | 美国钢厂(中西部) | 995 | 970 | 25 | 1010 | 1010 | 0 | - | - | - | | 美国进口 | 870 | 850 | 20 | 960 | 960 | 0 | - | - | - | | 欧盟钢厂 | 735 | 715 | 20 | 685 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 202 6 年 1 月 5 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 789.5 | 789.0 | 0.5 | I05-I09 | 21.0 | 22.0 | -1.0 | | I09 | 768.5 | 767.0 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | -36.5 | -42.0 | 5.5 | | I01 | 805.0 | 809.0 | -4.0 | I01-I05 | 15.5 | 20.0 | -4.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 22 ...

光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：1月供需双增预期，盘面坚挺运行 3、纯碱：基本面和外部因素博弈，期价坚挺运行 4、玻璃：1月供需两端继续博弈，盘面底部震荡 p 2 | 品 | 观 点 总 结 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 1、期货价格：12月尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，趋势先抑制后仰，截至12月31日收盘主力05合约报1749元/吨，月度涨幅0.4%。 | | | 2、现货价格：12月尿素现货价格偏强震荡，截至12月31日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/吨、1700元/吨，二者均较11月底上涨40 | | | 元/吨。 | | | 3、供应：12月尿素供应整体低位波动，一方面行业处于气头企业负荷下降周期，另一方面月内检修、故障频率提升。截至12月31日，尿素 | | | 日产量19.48万吨，较11月底的20.34万吨下降4.23%。1月之后气头企业负荷或逐步回升，但需关注环保因 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market has limited driving forces. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in January. The global cotton supply - demand gap is small, and the US cotton market is expected to fluctuate. [10] - The domestic cotton market has strong expectations. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is certain, leading to a strong expectation of lower production. The demand side is resilient, and there is positive sentiment at the macro - level. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has strong support below, and there may be an upward space in the medium - to - long - term. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - New - year cotton planting area is expected to decline, with strong sentiment. In Xinjiang, measures to reduce cotton planting area are being implemented. [6] - Pima cotton processing volume increased by about 1.1 million tons year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the processing volume was 6.697 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.211 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. [39][41] - National cotton inspection volume increased. As of December 30, 2025, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.1358 million tons, and the national volume was 6.3243 million tons. [43] - Pima cotton sales rate and sales volume are much higher than the same period last year. As of December 25, 2025, the sales volume was 3.731 million tons, and the sales rate was 50.7%. [46][47] 3.2 Demand - US clothing retail remains strong. In October, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were 27.128 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. [50][52] - The operating rates of textile enterprises in Vietnam, India, and Pakistan decreased or remained flat. As of December 26, Vietnam's operating rate was 61.9%, India's was 66.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5%. [54] - In November in China, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The cumulative retail sales from January to November were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. [7][57] - The comprehensive yarn load decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.1%, and the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 46.86%. [7][58] - The opening load of the grey fabric end decreased slightly, with a smaller decline than the yarn end. As of the week of December 26, the comprehensive short - fiber fabric load was 51.26%, and the pure - cotton grey fabric load was 48.66%. [7][59] 3.3 Import and Export - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton export contract volume is still low year - on - year. As of December 11, 2025, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.445 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.243 million tons. [8][60] - In November, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.276 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. The cumulative export from January to November was 130.01 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. [8][64] - In November, the export value of China's clothing and clothing accessories was 11.594 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.93%. The cumulative export from January to November was 137.79 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. [8][66] - In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. [8][70] - In November, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month increase. [75] - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton with a 1% quota was 12,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan. [79][81] 3.4 Inventory - US clothing retail inventory increased month - on - month, while wholesaler inventory decreased month - on - month. In September 2025, the retail inventory was 58.488 billion US dollars, and the wholesaler inventory was 28.229 billion US dollars. [82][84] - Yarn comprehensive inventory decreased, and grey fabric inventory accumulated. As of the week of December 26, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.66 days, and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 31.92 days. [85][86] - Spinning enterprises' raw material inventory decreased slightly, and finished - product inventory decreased significantly. As of the week of December 26, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 31.94 days, and the cotton yarn inventory was 27.66 days. [88] - Weaving factories' raw material and finished - product inventory increased month - on - month. As of the week of December 26, the weaving factories' cotton yarn inventory was 6.92 days, and the pure - cotton grey fabric inventory was 35.06 days. [89] - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory increased by 0.66 million tons month - on - month, basically the same year - on - year. As of December 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 5.349 million tons. [90][92] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is higher than the same period last year. As of December 30, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9,185. [97][99] 3.5 Price - The spot price of cotton moved up. As of December 30, 2025, the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.34%. [18][22] - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton strengthened. As of December 31, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan. [27][29] - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under a 1% tariff fluctuated and strengthened. As of December 30, 2025, the price difference was 2,621 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 605 yuan. [30][31] - The increase in the cotton yarn futures price was lower than that of the cotton futures price. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.69%. [33][34] - The cotton yarn basis gradually converged. As of December 31, 2025, the basis was 555 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan. [35][36] 3.6 Option - The historical volatility of cotton options increased significantly. [100]

光期研究 2 0 2 6年1月涤纶短纤策略报告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 涤纶短纤：短纤基本面尚可，关注油价对产业链影响 p 2 | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | | 1、涤纶短纤价格：跟随原油价格震荡 | | | 2、涤纶短纤成本端：关注装置落地情况 | | | 3、涤纶短纤供应端：开工持续高位 | | | 4、涤纶短纤需求端：订单季节性走弱 | | | 5、涤纶短纤终端需求：终端需求走弱 | | | 6、涤纶短纤持仓情况 | | p 3 1.1 价格：涤纶短纤期货、现货、基差 | 单位：元/吨 | PF主力收盘价 | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 基 差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/31 | 6514 | 6610 | 96 | | 2025/11/28 | 6250 | 6390 | 140 | | 变化值 | 264 | 220 | -44 | | 涨跌幅 | 4.2% | 3.4% | -31.4% | p 4 图表： ...