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光大期货能化商品日报-20250704
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 02:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]
光大期货软商品日报(2025 年7月2日)-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 08:00
软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二,ICE 美棉下跌 0.25%,报收 67.96 美分/磅,CF509 环比下降 0.51,报收 13745 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨,主力合约持仓环比下降 11709 手至 56.32 万手,新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15187 | | | | 元/吨,较前一日上涨 70 元/吨,中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15212 元/吨,较前 | | | | 一日上涨 58 元/吨。国际市场方面,美棉实播面积报告公布后,美棉价格环比回落, | | | | 新年度美棉产量或同比基本持平。关注后续宏观及天气扰动。国内市场方面,郑 | | | 棉花 | 棉期价连续两日回落,持仓持续下降。我们认为主要原因有以下两点,一是新棉 | | | | 的丰产预期,国家棉花市场监测系统 6 月末调查报告显示,新疆地区植棉面积同 | | | | 比增加 8.2%,增幅环比上调。另一方面是当前下游需求支撑力度有限。当前下游 | | | | 纺织企业开机仍在小幅下降,略低于 ...
光大期货工业硅日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:59
工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 点评 1 日多晶硅震荡偏强,主力 2508 收于 32700 元/吨,日内跌幅 2.39%,持 仓减仓 5137 手至 61196 手;SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/ 吨,最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨,现货对主力升水扩至 1800 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱,主力 2509 收于 7765 元/吨,日内跌幅 4.31%,持仓增仓 5325 手至 36.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8738 元/ 吨,较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格 8000 元/吨,现货贴水转 至升水 165 元/吨。工业硅新疆大厂减产消息逐步被市场消化,双硅结束 反弹开始同步回调,特朗普税收刀砍向新能源板块,多晶硅前期超跌下近 期盘面略强于工业硅。从实际情况来看,工业硅仓单回流市场节奏放缓, 晶硅高品位仓单仍需深跌空间减压。库存高压仍在,硅价易跌难涨。持续 跟踪双硅比价和政策和行业调控产能消息。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 ...
黑色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日)-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and environmental protection restrictions have increased, which has a certain boost to market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. There are both positive and negative factors in supply, demand, and inventory [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply and demand sides are affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, steel prices, and cost pressures [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is likely to experience weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, although the cost side has some support [1][3]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to operate weakly and oscillate. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price drivers are limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 48,100 lots in positions. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume remained low. Environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan may affect production, and the short - term disk is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 708.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (0.98%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 340,000 lots and a decrease of 14,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Supply decreased slightly, demand (blast furnace operating rate) remained flat while iron - water production increased, and inventory showed different trends. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,806 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply is expected to be more relaxed as environmental inspections end, and demand may be affected by environmental protection in some areas. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1388.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.1%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,264 lots in positions. Spot prices in ports increased. Supply was affected by environmental protection and cost pressures, and demand was supported by blast - furnace operations but also faced negative feedback from the weak terminal market. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.95% month - on - month, with a decrease of 7,716 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production has been increasing for six consecutive weeks, demand is still at a low level, and the cost side has some support. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5270 yuan/ton, down 2.04% month - on - month, with an increase of 5,156 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production remained stable at a low level, demand was at a historical low, and the price drivers were limited during the off - season. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different trends, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also showed different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract and 01 - contract of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties changed, including rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou; hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou; and various iron - ore powders [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Different profit indicators (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spread indicators (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc.) showed different changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Showed the basis trends of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presented the spread trends of inter - period contracts of different varieties, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [27][29][31][34][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trends of inter - variety contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Showed the profit trends of the rebar main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].
农产品日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:49
农产品日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二,玉米 | | | 9 月期价震荡上行,进口玉米拍卖溢价成交,现货市场强势表现对玉 | 震荡 | | 米期价提供支撑。周初,玉米 | | | 7 月持仓下降,资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限,期 | | | 价连续四日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面,周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进 | | | | | | 口玉米拍卖消息已出,从周末市场表现来看并未受到明显影响,东北部分深加工 | | | | | | 玉米收购价格继续上调,产区玉米报价仍维持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到 | | | | | | 货量维持低位,加上近期阴雨天气较多,部分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行,普 | | | | | | 玉米 | | | 遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少,贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场 | | | 玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺,下游提货速度一般,港口库存仍有压 | | | | | | 力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限,小部分企业刚需采购玉米 ...
有色商品日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:49
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高,上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨;SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨;现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面,美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49,连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩,预期为 48.8,前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人,高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人,前值为 739.1 | 万人,该数值大幅超出市场预期,显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能,称若非关税已降息,关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面,7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限,特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略,从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议,以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面, ...
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-07-02-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:48
1. Index Trends - On July 01, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, with a trading volume of 553.557 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11% to close at 10476.29 points, with a trading volume of 912.459 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 334.302 billion yuan, opening at 6358.06, closing at 6373.77, with a daily high of 6373.77 and a low of 6308.06 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.33%, with a trading volume of 213.596 billion yuan, opening at 5915.8, closing at 5934.67, with a daily high of 5936.92 and a low of 5890.11 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, with a trading volume of 66.144 billion yuan, opening at 2714.97, closing at 2717.71, with a daily high of 2721.4 and a low of 2708.19 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 17.59 points from the previous close. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Non - ferrous Metals, and Basic Chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while Non - Banking Finance and Computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 19.28 points from the previous close. Sectors like Medicine and Biology, Electronics, and Non - ferrous Metals significantly pulled the index up, while Power Equipment and Computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 5.72 points from the previous close. Sectors including Banking, Non - ferrous Metals, and Medicine and Biology significantly pulled the index up, while Power Equipment, Food and Beverage, and Electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.15, IM01 of - 151.38, IM02 of - 226.11, and IM03 of - 403.9 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 57.04, IC01 of - 105.34, IC02 of - 158.75, and IC03 of - 282.0 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 27.6, IF01 of - 43.21, IF02 of - 52.91, and IF03 of - 86.83 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 20.26, IH01 of - 24.66, IH02 of - 26.31, and IH03 of - 27.13 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different 15 - minute intervals throughout the trading day [22][24][26].
碳酸锂日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:25
碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 0.16%至 62780 元/吨。现货价格方面,电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 61300 元/吨,工业级碳酸锂平均价维持 59700 元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(粗颗粒)下跌 100 元/吨至 57720 元/吨。仓单方面,昨日仓单库存增加 312 吨至 22940 吨。 2. 供应端,周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨,其中云母增量相对明显,6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端,据第三方排产数据来看,7 月预计磷酸铁锂产量环比增长 3%,三元材料产 量环比增长 1.3%;周度库存周转天数均有增加,磷酸铁锂相对增加明显。库存端,周度库存环比增 加 1936 吨至 136837 吨,其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨,中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨,上游 增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 上周锂矿成交价格小幅上涨,锂盐厂宣布停产检修及技改,叠加市场消息面扰动较多,但当前价格 面临一定套保压力,且矿山端未有停减产迹象,短期或仍偏震荡运行。 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 点 评 ...
光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:25
光期研究 光期黑色:铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 资料来源:Wind,Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差:数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 799 | 805 | -6.0 | 749 ...
光大期货能化商品日报-20250702
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 07:17
光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报(2025 年 7 月 2 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心小幅上移,其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.34 美元至 | | | | 65.45 美元/桶,涨幅 0.52%。布伦特新换 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 | | | | 美元至 67.11 美元/桶,涨幅 0.55%。SC2508 以 498.0 元/桶收盘, | | | | 上涨 1.0 元/桶,涨幅为 0.20%。 | | | | OPEC+预计将在 7 月 6 日会议上宣布 8 月每日增产 41.1 万桶的 | | | | 计划,并指出贸易协议改善需求前景部分抵消了这一影响。美国 | | | | 总统特朗普表示,他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的 7 | | | | 月 9 日截止日期,并对与日本能否达成协议表示怀疑。特朗普表 | | | 原油 | 示,美方已经和日本打过交道,不确定是否会达成协议。特朗普 | 震荡 | | | 表示,他可以对从日本进口的商品征收"30%或 35%或任何我们 | | | | 确定的 ...