光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 08 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 | | 昨日国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.62%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.19%， 5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.01%。中国央行开展 1955 亿 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元 7 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.5%。公开市场有 5308 亿元逆回购到期， | | | | 净回笼 3353 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 利率下行 4.82bp 至 1.6613%， | | | | DR007 4.7bp 1.6802%；交易所回购市场方面，GC001 13bp 利率下行 至 下行 | | | 国债 | 至 1.5750%，GC007 利率下行 6bp 至 1.6750%。昨日一揽子增量措施出台， | 偏空 | | | 央行发布 3 类 10 项措施，降准降息落地。当前债市抢跑定价基本面走弱和 | | | | 货币政策发力预期较为明显，在经济尚未受到明显外需的拖累，而降准降息 | | | | 已经落地的情况下，债市预计偏空运行。收益率曲 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, and CF509 declined 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,434 lots to 587,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 13,846 yuan per ton, down 79 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,113 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan. With macro - level disturbances, mixed US economic data, and the Fed likely to hold rates in May, the drought impact on US cotton - growing areas has weakened. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a low - level oscillation. There is an expectation of improved Sino - US tariffs and the price is at a relatively low historical level, but it's the off - season for textile and clothing consumption, and the new cotton planting area has increased. Overall, it's expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the 2024/25 sugar - making season as of April 30, 2025, India's crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from the previous year, and sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%). The spot prices of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan were lowered. The raw sugar price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and crude oil but was pressured by the issue of increased production. Considering future imported sugar arrivals, a bearish view is held, but the downward space is not seen as deep due to the limited inventory pressure of domestic sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread was - 235 with no change, the main basis was 1,368, down 65. The spot price in Xinjiang was 13,846, down 79, and the national price was 14,113, down 70 [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread was 75, up 1, the main basis was 290, down 23. The spot price in Nanning was 6,160, down 10, and in Liuzhou was 6,180, down 20 [2]. 2. Market Information - On May 6, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,116, an increase of 76 from the previous day, with 1,194 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 13,846 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,160 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,148 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,127 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On May 6, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.4, down 0.5 from the previous day, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.4, up 0.5, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.4, down 0.7, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.5, up 0.2 [3]. - On May 6, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,160 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,180 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 28,629, a decrease of 121 from the previous day, with 4,274 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 7 - 9 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][13][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices strengthened on the first trading day after the holiday, with the spot market also significantly stronger. The daily production level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the demand side improved. The futures market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand fulfillment, export situation changes, and price - stabilization policies [1]. - Soda ash futures prices showed a weak and volatile trend after the holiday. The supply is expected to decline due to plant overhauls, and the demand follows as needed. The futures market may experience a phased upward trend, but the long - term pattern remains loose [1]. - Glass futures prices were weak after the holiday. The supply support is limited, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The trading atmosphere improved after the holiday. The futures prices are expected to be strong during the day, and attention should be paid to demand sustainability and macro - sentiment changes [1]. Market Information Urea - On May 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 4,970, an increase of 111 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 125 [4]. - On May 6, the daily production of the urea industry was 201,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from April 30 and an increase of 12,500 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 87.47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4]. - On May 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions increased. For example, in Shandong, it was 1,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On May 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,799, a decrease of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,806. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,266, a decrease of 175 from the previous trading day [6]. - On May 6, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions varied, with some light - alkali prices slightly increasing [6]. - On May 6, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 86.11% [7]. - On May 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 155,800 tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts, such as those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [10][11][19][21]. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [22]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 铜震荡走高，上涨 1.75%至 9520 美元/吨：SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.84%至 78320 元/吨；国内现货进口小幅盈利。宏观方面，海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美 | LME | | | | 国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违约，并承诺财政部不会使用 "花招"绕过债务上限。另外， 美国财政部拍卖 420 亿美元 10 年期国债，整体结果稳 | | | | | 健，多个指标健康。国内方面，中国 4 月财新服务业 PMI 50.7，新订单增速放缓，但财 | | | | | 政部部长蓝佛安表示，将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右 | | | | 铜 | 增长目标。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1675 吨至 195625 吨；SMM 周二统计全国主流地 | | | | | 区铜库存环比节前减少 0.11 万吨至 12.85 万吨。宏观方面美政府态度持续软化，基本面 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 36,410 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%, and the open interest decreased by 510 lots to 53,756 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,090 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.57%, and the open interest increased by 12,934 lots to 17,950 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,637 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 280 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. Industrial silicon was affected by the negative feedback from the downstream and was difficult to get out of the bottom-finding rhythm. The adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production was relatively high, and the space for a sharp decline after the holiday was relatively limited compared with industrial silicon, mainly showing a narrow correction. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies will be newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with a decrease of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan to 280 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,236, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 1,330 tons to 346,180 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 5,900 tons to 244,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons to 409,100 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton to 36,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 835 yuan to 4,090 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30, the GFE inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 90,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.37 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.4 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][13]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][32].

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，五一假期节后开盘玉米期价表现弱于预期，主力 2507 合约小幅高开后期 | | | | 价下行，当日收带长下引线的小阴线，期价呈现偏弱表现。现货市场方面，五一 | | | | 期间玉米现货延续上行，现货市场存粮贸易商看涨热情持续。东北玉米价格偏强 | | | | 运行为主，北港玉米价格上涨对行情形成较为明显的带动，产区贸易商低价售粮 | | | | 意向一般。五一假期期间，华北地区玉米价格延续偏强运行的态势，价格重心继 | | | | 续上移。农户余粮见底，粮源集中到贸易商手中，经过价格持续上涨，市场看涨 | | | 玉米 | 预期增强。期现价格联动上涨，小麦和玉米价格联动上涨。截至 5 月 6 日，山东 | 震荡 | | | 寿光金玉米收购价格 2420 元/吨，较节前价格上涨 40 元/吨，山东大部分企业站 | | | | 上 2400 元/吨的价位。产区带动销区玉米报价上涨，近期产区玉米价格持续上涨， | | | | 销区港口贸易商报价提高，期货市场表现偏强， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 758.5 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 56.5 | 55.0 | 1.5 | | I09 | 704.5 | 703.5 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 0.5 | | I01 | 679.5 | 679.0 | 0.5 | I01-I05 | -81.5 | -79.5 | -2.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 1.51%至 65260 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 850 元/ 吨至 67100 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂跌 850 元/吨至 65400 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 250 元/吨至 67360 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 250 元/吨至 72505 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓 单库存增加 1759 吨至 35236 吨。 2. 供应端，前期价格连续下挫，低价压力下， 上游陆续有停减产动作，周度产量 14483 吨，折 7 天环 比减少 3 吨，5 月预计整体供应量环比下降，但是需要注意仍然有项目在爬坡和投产过程中，且矿 山/一体化项目成本有降幅明显。需求端， 5 月磷酸铁锂预计产量环比增加 4.5%至 276150 吨，三元 材料环比增长 1.4%至 64615 吨，日均消耗碳酸锂环比增长 1%。下游有一定逢低补库动作，下游库 存水平持续增高，实际采购力度也将有限。库存端，整体社会 ...