Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On October 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62% to close at 3865.23 points, with a trading volume of 1209.984 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.54% to 12895.11 points, with a trading volume of 1366.25 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined by 1.95% with a trading volume of 506.69 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index decreased by 2.46% with a trading volume of 505.839 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.21% with a trading volume of 219.194 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.2% with a trading volume of 808.959 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - For the CSI 1000 Index, sectors such as power equipment, computer, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - For the CSI 500 Index, power equipment and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index down [2]. - For the CSI 300 Index, banks and food and beverage sectors pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors pulled it down [2]. - For the SSE 50 Index, banks, food and beverage, and non - bank finance sectors pulled the index up, while pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 44.75, IM01 of - 145.04, IM02 of - 231.03, and IM03 of - 452.67 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.77, IC01 of - 120.78, IC02 of - 173.92, and IC03 of - 336.26 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.29, IF01 of - 24.15, IF02 of - 38.68, and IF03 of - 60.55 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.61, IH01 of - 6.62, IH02 of - 7.19, and IH03 of - 5.78 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, specific data on rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented in the report, such as IM00 - 01 having values like - 73.02267 at 09:45 [22]. - For IC, detailed rollover point differences and annualized costs are provided, e.g., IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 at 09:45 [24]. - For IF, specific values of rollover point differences and annualized costs are given, for example, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 at 09:45 [26]. - For IH, the rollover point differences and annualized costs are also detailed, like IH00 - 01 being 0.707 at 09:45 [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding previous domestic historical highs is low considering the uncertainty of the US government's tariff stance towards China and the upcoming month - end meeting. High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is unlikely to offer a higher premium until there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade [1]. - The aluminum market is overall bearish but approaching a bottom. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October," and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but further price increases depend on demand improvement [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Although the inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, macro - level disturbances need to be watched out for. The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro: Fed Chairman Powell's speech soothed the market, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December is over 90%. The US government shutdown may impact the economy, and the White House plans to continue layoffs. In China, attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and important upcoming meetings [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 138,800 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons; BC copper increased by 2,171 tons to 9,189 tons [1]. - Demand: High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is cautious until Sino - US trade makes substantial progress [1]. Aluminum - Price: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,955 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to par [1][2]. - Market: Alumina plant profits have been further compressed, high - cost production capacity has turned to losses and stopped production. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October" [2]. Nickel - Price: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons to 243,258 tons; domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 245 tons to 25,027 tons [2]. - Industry Chain: The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. The social inventory of stainless steel has increased significantly after the holiday. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 950 yuan/ton to 85,960 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 25 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 3.6 tons to 25.7 tons [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons, and the SHFE aluminum total inventory increased by 1,180 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.1 tons to 65.0 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 6.3 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 375 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 3,604 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,866 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.73 tons to 15.35 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 decreased by 0.5%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 550 tons, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [7]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][46]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oil: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn prices are expected to rebound after a decline due to the release of the pressure of a bumper harvest and the emergence of farmers' reluctance to sell. Soybean meal is affected by uncertainties in US soybean demand and domestic supply, showing an oscillatory weak trend. Oil has short - term pressure but a long - term positive outlook. Egg futures rebounded from the bottom, while the supply pressure of eggs is large. Pork prices continue to be weak [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the November corn contract fell and then closed slightly up, breaking through the 2100 - yuan integer mark. The spot price continued to decline, with the domestic average price at 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the price in North ports and the marketing areas also declined. Technically, the sharp decline of the November contract released the pressure of a bumper harvest. With the cooling weather in the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, and the futures price showed a stable performance at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to uncertainties in US soybean demand. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase. Domestically, protein meal declined, and soybean meal fell below 2900 yuan/ton. Macro uncertainties, abundant domestic spot supply, and sufficient soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter suppress the market, with an oscillatory weak strategy [1]. - **Oil**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil increased from October 1 - 10. Domestically, the three major vegetable oils declined. The short - term pressure exists, but the long - term trend is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures rebounded from the bottom, with the main 2511 contract rising 1.57% to 2852 yuan/500 kilograms. The supply of eggs is normal, and the digestion speed in most areas is average. There are no new positive factors in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pork**: On Tuesday, pork futures closed slightly up in an oscillatory manner. The spot price continued to decline, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at 10.81 yuan/kg. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot price [2]. Market Information - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for November to 4262.23 ringgit per ton (1008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10% [2]. - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [3]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's annual grain purchase volume exceeded 400 million tons, with abundant grain reserves and a stable market [3]. - China urges the US to correct wrong practices, show sincerity in negotiations, and promote the healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and pork, including 1 - 5 spreads and basis, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - The team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and pork industries. They have rich experience and many honors [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,538 tons to 35,180 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile in September decreased, which may have a small impact on imported lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is a peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. The total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, with downstream and intermediate links reducing inventory and upstream accumulating inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there are still expectations of project复产, and with the supplement of overseas import increments, the domestic tight balance will gradually ease, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,680 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract increased by 900 yuan/ton to 72,700 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 828 US dollars/ton, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,025 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,725 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.48 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the value of CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 113 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary material 811 (power type), and cobaltate (60%, 4.35V/domestic) all increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage), lithium manganate (power type), and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of cobaltate cells increased by 0.1 yuan/Ah, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5] 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14] - Price differences: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and others from 2024 to 2025 [17][19] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] - Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 20, 2025, to October 9, 2025 [36][38] - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 14th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 8,520 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.18%, and the position decreasing by 3,048 lots to 163,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,557 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 410 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 49,990 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.55%, and the position decreasing by 6,277 lots to 81,388 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 2,520 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors in the market that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, leading to a divergence in the trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloy is resilient, and the main variable lies in the supply side. Large - scale production shutdowns are about to start in the southwest. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short - selling operations at high levels for the far - month contracts are recommended. Additionally, there are news about the registration of a production capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November [2]. - Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production continued to rise. Coupled with the under - performance of tenders, the domestic component production schedule declined, and the overall terminal market remained weak. After November, major manufacturers will conduct maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern may improve fundamentally. The market is waiting for the meeting results and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase under the influence of news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,805 yuan/ton on the 13th to 8,520 yuan/ton on the 14th, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, most remained stable, except for some minor price adjustments. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,900 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 7 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 48,740 yuan/ton on the 13th to 49,990 yuan/ton on the 14th, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 3,565 yuan/ton to 2,520 yuan/ton [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,854. The total social inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 445,000 tons. For polysilicon, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,900, and the total social inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 254,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][33]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. The team has won the awards for the best non - ferrous metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily and Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of the excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [36].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 10 月 15 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 A | 点评 股市场全天高开低走，创业板指午后跌超 4%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市超 3500 股飘绿，今日成交 2.59 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.62%，深成指跌 2.54%，创业板指跌 3.99%。消息面，中美贸易争端再起，短期可能对指数造 成冲击，但从美国"Taco"交易的习惯来看，未来仍然存在很大变数。考虑 | | | | 到重要会议将于 10 月 20 日开幕，指数在此之前可能以调整为主。此外，国 | | | 股指 | 内部分券商将部分个股融资折算率由 60%调整为 0。如果短期内杠杆资金集 | 偏强 | | | 中离场，可能对科技股估值造成影响。但是，指数长期上涨的动能主要来自 | | | | 于内部政策预期，截止目前没有改变，短期 IV 回落可能是买入机会，可以 | | | | 小仓位布局 11 月虚值看涨期权。国内方面，9 月政治局会议通报，二十届四 | | | | 中全会将于 10 月 20 日在京召开，此前市场对于会议内容 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, with supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, putting strong pressure on oil prices. Currently, the market faces pressure from both supply and demand sides, and the peak demand season is fading with no highlights in the downstream [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong, but Trump's new round of tariff hikes is pressuring oil prices [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil. There is still some construction rush expectation after the festival, but the significant increase in previous production may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester chain prices are expected to be volatile and weak, following the movement of crude oil prices. The supply of TA and EG is in a loose pattern, and the weak sales of polyester products are observed. Pay attention to potential sudden plant overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The end of the typhoon season leads to normal rubber tapping in major production areas, while the high inventory of tire finished products and tariff - disturbed demand result in a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited due to winter gas restrictions. Consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [4]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain at a high level, and although there is still support from downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply remains at a high level, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak due to anti - dumping policies and trade frictions. The total inventory pressure is large [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI November contract closed down $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; Brent December contract closed down $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; SC2511 closed at 444.0 yuan per barrel, down 7.8 yuan per barrel, a 1.73% decline. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s monthly report is less pessimistic [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 2700 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2512 closed down 1.14% at 3203 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.6% at 3290 yuan per ton. There is a construction rush expectation after the festival, but previous production increases may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4440 yuan per ton on Tuesday, down 1.55%; EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan per ton, down 1.22%. The polyester chain prices are weak and volatile, and the polyester operating rate is 91% [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14845 yuan per ton; NR main contract closed down 50 yuan per ton to 11990 yuan per ton. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly, but the supply - demand situation of rubber is unfavorable [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2285 yuan per ton. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6550 - 6700 yuan per ton. The short - term production will remain high, and downstream demand growth is weakening [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the market prices of PVC in East, North, and South China continued to decline. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., covering spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s view is less pessimistic. Oil industry executives expect the global oil market to tighten in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have declined. The release of inventory reports by API and EIA has been postponed [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various products, like the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05 and 09 - 01 [43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit of PP [71]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overnight LME copper price rose significantly, with the domestic market following suit. However, the spot import window remained closed, indicating cautious sentiment in the domestic market. The Fed official's support for two interest rate cuts this year and the US government's conciliatory remarks on Sino - US trade talks boosted market risk appetite and drove up non - ferrous metal prices. Copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, while aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong and volatile trend. Alumina is generally bearish but may be bottoming out. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, and whether it can rise further depends on the improvement of demand [1][2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel ore market is relatively stable, but policy risks in Indonesia need to be watched out for. The nickel - iron and stainless - steel industries and the new energy industry also have different trends [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose, and the domestic market followed. LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 139,395 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,224 tons to 309,239 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons, and BC copper decreased by 75 tons to 7,018 tons. High copper prices led to a decline in downstream orders and a slowdown in spot procurement, and social inventory increased. Copper prices may be strong but have a low probability of exceeding previous domestic highs [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile (AO2601 closed at 2,897 yuan/ton, down 0.64%), aluminum was strongly volatile (AL2510 closed at 20,975 yuan/ton, up 0.55%), and aluminum alloy was strongly volatile (AD2511 closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, up 0.52%). Alumina prices fell, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. The aluminum price is expected to be strong, and the follow - up trend depends on demand improvement [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to 15,180 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.34% to 121,240 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 4,716 tons to 242,094 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 44 tons to 25,272 tons. The nickel ore market is relatively stable, but policy risks in Indonesia need attention. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On October 13, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,010 yuan/ton, down 1,645 yuan from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 50 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,926 tons, and social inventory increased by 36,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 17,030 yuan/ton on October 13, up 50 yuan from October 10. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased by 1,978 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On October 13, the Wuxi quotation was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 2,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,032 tons, and social inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Nickel**: On October 13, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 123,675 yuan/ton, down 1,350 yuan from October 10. LME inventory increased by 4,716 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 44 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,866 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price on October 13 was 22,285 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 475 tons, and social inventory increased by 17,300 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price on October 13 was 283,550 yuan/ton, down 1.7% from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 550 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, including copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, etc. [42][44][48]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, etc. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [51]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [51]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure in the short - term. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level, with the US dollar index strongly oscillating above 99, pressuring the US cotton price. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a new cotton harvest this year, and the supply pressure will persist for a long time [1]. - Sugar is expected to continue to show a weak oscillation, following the trend of raw sugar. The market is short of drivers after the sharp decline, and it awaits the crushing data of the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.47% to 63.54 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.41% to 13,300 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions increased by 8,508 to 563,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,450 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: An investigation shows that the expected cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is 40.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the expected sugar production is 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The US market tumbled by over 3%, and the domestic market also declined after the overnight opening [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 10; the main basis was 1489, up 57; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,642, up 12, and the national spot price was 14,789, up 14 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 30, down 2; the main basis was 350, up 26; the Nanning spot price was 5800, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5820, down 15 [2]. Market Information - On October 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,867, down 75 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 31 [3]. - On October 13, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 14,642 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,802 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,957 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 13, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 29.3, up 0.1 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5800 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou it was 5820 yuan per ton, down 15 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,681, down 186 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be weakly volatile. The export of steel products shows strong resilience, but there is still significant pressure on supply and demand, and macro - level disturbances are increasing [1]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Although the supply has decreased, the demand remains at a relatively high level, presenting a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term. The procurement attitude of enterprises is cautious, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient, but the short - term demand has certain support [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have a weakly volatile trend in the short term. The fundamental driving force is limited, and they mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the new round of steel tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 26,600 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, and the trading volume was low. In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron - making output decreased by 0.23 tons to 2.4154 million tons. The steel mill profit margin continued to decline slightly, and the port inventory increased while the steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1146 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.29%, with a decrease in positions of 7044 lots. Some coal mine production slightly recovered, and the procurement enthusiasm of traders slowed down. The subsequent maintenance of steel mills may expand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1642.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 1.44%, with an increase in positions of 569 lots. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was slightly repaired. Steel mills purchased on demand, and some had production restrictions and maintenance [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract was reported at 5746 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The supply decreased slightly from the high level, and the demand was limited. The cost of manganese ore was relatively stable, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the silicon iron futures price was volatile and weak. The main contract was reported at 5406 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The cost support was weak, the production enterprise's operating rate was relatively high, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 56.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 13.0, down 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the rebar 01 contract was 137.0, up 10.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 01 contract was 41.0, down 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220.0, down 10.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 796.0, up 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar disk profit was - 108.7, down 23.7 from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 178.0, down 4.0 from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].