Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract's main funds are shifting to forward contracts, with the far - month 1 and 3 - month contracts under pressure. Spot market prices show different trends in different regions, and the futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. In the domestic market, although there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil fell for the third day on Thursday, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to fluctuate. The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract is approaching the delivery month with reduced positions, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. Northeast corn prices are slightly weak, Jiangsu's new - season corn has a low price, North China prices are stable with limited adjustments, and the sales area prices are generally stable with some ports rebounding. The futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday. In the domestic market, there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, but the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in positive spreads between months [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, and the inventory pressure is increasing. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to decline on Thursday, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - **USDA Drought Report**: As of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3%, 7% last year), and about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected (previously 4%, 6% last year) [3]. - **IGC Monthly Report**: The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast is slightly increased to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast is increased by 1 million tons to a record high (year - on - year +2%). The 2025/26 global corn production forecast is increased by 23 million tons to 12.99 billion tons, the trade volume is increased by 5 million tons to 192 million tons, the consumption is increased by 13 million tons to 12.85 billion tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 16 million tons to 2.94 billion tons [3]. - **India's Rapeseed Oil Purchase**: India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August, the first in nearly five years, as the domestic price reached a three - and - a - half - year high [4]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, despite increased production and accelerated exports. In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [4]. - **China's Central Reserve Frozen Pork Purchase**: Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and auction on August 25, 2025 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The content provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [5][6][7][11] - **Contract Basis**: The content provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [13][14][17][24] Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0243534 and Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of experience in the futures industry and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3048706 and Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3032578 and Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.17% to 82,760 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 85,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 500 yuan/ton to 82,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 77,690 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 275 tons to 24,320 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 520 tons to 12,179 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 1,250 tons to 2,650 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 90 tons to 2,650 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 78 tons to 1,757 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. On the inventory side, the social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons, with inventory reductions in upstream and other links and continued replenishment by downstream [3]. - Currently, the production problems of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and faces short - term callback pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situation analysis [3]. - Short - term price trend judgment and future focus points [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other products [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13] 3.3.3 Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21] 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][26][28] 3.3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35] 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [38][39][40] 3.3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [42][43]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.19% to 67.47 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 rose 0.11% to 14,030 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 3,484 lots to 482,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang decreased by 42 yuan per ton to 15,038 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B decreased by 30 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton. The international market has limited overall drivers, with both fundamentals and macro - factors showing no significant disturbances. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices are mainly in a volatile state. The domestic market has increased stock index fluctuations and changing market sentiment. Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, and the market's focus will shift to new cotton. New cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, which puts pressure on the upside, but the over - capacity of ginning factories and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. In the future, Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom but needs more drivers to rise, and it is expected to be in a firm and volatile state in the short term [2]. - For sugar, SCA Brasil predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 crushing season will drop to 39.1 million tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5,890 to 6,000 yuan per ton, Yunnan sugar - making groups from 5,770 to 5,820 yuan per ton, and processing sugar factories from 6,050 to 6,200 yuan per ton, with a few increasing by 10 yuan per ton. The fluctuation range of raw sugar futures prices continues to narrow, and there is no new news about Brazil's sugarcane crushing. It is difficult to break through in the short term, and the mid - term impact of macro - factors should be noted. The domestic futures price rebounded slightly, with little change in trading volume and a slight increase in positions. The trend is not obvious, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. The import data for August should be monitored in the mid - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 260, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous period. The main - contract basis is 1,180, a decrease of 5. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,038 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton, and the national price is 15,210 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 46, a decrease of 16 compared to the previous period. The main - contract basis is 302, a decrease of 12. The spot price in Nanning is 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou is 5,990 yuan per ton, also unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On August 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,335, a decrease of 120 from the previous trading day, with 188 valid forecasts [4]. - On August 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,038 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,274 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,208 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,328 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On August 21, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27.6, a decrease of 0.7; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 48.4, unchanged from the previous day; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.4, a decrease of 0.1 [4]. - On August 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,970 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5,990 yuan per ton, also unchanged [4]. - On August 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 15,751, a decrease of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1 valid forecast [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the difference between domestic and foreign prices under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][10][15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand data of rebar has slightly improved, with production decreasing, inventory growth narrowing, and apparent demand slightly rising. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan and the macro - vacuum period contribute to this trend [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to experience narrow - range oscillations. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, while the number of blast furnace overhauls and restarts has changed, and the inventory situation is complex, with port inventory rising and steel mill inventory falling [1]. - The coking coal market is likely to fluctuate. The production of some coal mines has decreased, downstream procurement is cautious, but coke enterprises' profits have recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remains high [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm, but some areas are affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke is relatively stable [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is expected to fluctuate. The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remains high, steel mills' demand is weak, and the inventory is at a medium level in recent years [1]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to fluctuate. The production of silicon - iron is increasing, downstream price - pressing intention is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Market Performance | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | Rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 65,300 in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. | This week, the national rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons year - on - year; social inventory increased by 175,800 tons to 4.3251 million tons; factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.7453 million tons; apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons to 1.948 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Iron Ore | The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from the previous trading day, with 280,000 transactions and an increase of 11,000 in positions. Port spot prices rose. | Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 restarts. Hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2.4075 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 626,300 tons to 144.442 million tons, the number of ships in port decreased by 3, and steel mill inventory decreased by 810,000 tons to 90.65 million tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1147 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 649 in positions. The price of some coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong. | The production of some coal mines decreased due to accidents and safety inspections. Coke enterprises' profits recovered, and steel mills' hot metal production remained high. | Oscillation [1] | | Coke | The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 807 in positions. Port spot prices were stable. | Coke enterprises' profits improved, and production enthusiasm increased, but some areas were affected by production restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke was relatively stable. | Oscillation [1] | | Manganese - Silicon | The manganese - silicon futures price oscillated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 6712 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The production rate of manganese - silicon enterprises remained high, and the weekly output exceeded 200,000 tons. Steel mills' demand was weak, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased slightly. | Oscillation [1] | | Silicon - Iron | The silicon - iron futures price strengthened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, and an increase of 3215 in positions. The market price in some areas decreased. | The weekly production of silicon - iron continued to increase, reaching 113,400 tons this week, a 0.5% increase from the previous week. Downstream price - pressing intention was strong, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 3100 tons to 62,080 tons. | Oscillation [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Basis | Latest Value | MoM | Spot | Latest Value | MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 10 - 1 month | - 79.0 | - 4.0 | 10 - contract | 179.0 | 21.0 | Shanghai | 3300.0 | 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 39.0 | - 1.0 | 01 - contract | 100.0 | 17.0 | Beijing | 3260.0 | 0.0 | | | | | | | | | Guangzhou | 3310.0 | 0.0 | | Hot Roll | 10 - 1 month | 15.0 | - 2.0 | 10 - contract | 45.0 | 17.0 | Shanghai | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | | | | | | | Tianjin | 3420.0 | - 10.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 9.0 | - 12.0 | 01 - contract | 60.0 | 15.0 | Guangzhou | 3520.0 | - 10.0 | | Iron Ore | 9 - 1 month | 18.5 | 1.5 | 09 - contract | 24.9 | - 2.8 | PB powder | 769.0 | 2.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | 24.5 | 2.5 | 01 - contract | 43.4 | - 1.3 | Super Special powder | 652.0 | 4.0 | | Coke | 9 - 1 month | - 59.0 | - 14.0 | 09 - contract | 27.8 | 28.0 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade | 1470.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 88.0 | 1.5 | 01 - contract | - 31.2 | 14.0 | | | | | Coking Coal | 9 - 1 month | - 117.0 | 1.0 | 09 - contract | 128.0 | 134.5 | Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal | 1350.0 | 120.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 46.0 | - 7.5 | 01 - contract | 11.0 | 135.5 | | | | | Manganese - Silicon | 9 - 1 month | - 92.0 | - 12.0 | 09 - contract | 4.0 | 10.0 | Ningxia, Inner Mongolia | 5570.0, 5750.0 | - 30.0, 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 50.0 | 0.0 | 01 - contract | - 88.0 | - 2.0 | Guangxi | 5780.0 | - 20.0 | | Silicon - Iron | 9 - 1 month | - 160.0 | - 6.0 | 09 - contract | - 54.0 | - 58.0 | Ningxia | 5330.0 | 0.0 | | | 1 - 5 month | - 120.0 | 8.0 | 01 - contract | - 214.0 | - 64.0 | Inner Mongolia, Qinghai | 5300.0 | - 50.0 | | | Profit | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | Spread | Latest Value | MoM | | | Rebar futures profit | - 28.6 | - 9.8 | Coil - rebar spread | 254.0 | - 16.0 | Coking coal ratio | 1.5 | 0.01 | | | Long - process profit | 67.8 | 6.4 | Rebar - iron ore ratio | 4.0 | - 0.03 | Coke - iron ore ratio | 2.2 | - 0.03 | | | Short - process profit | 36.2 | 10.4 | Rebar - coke ratio | 1.9 | 0.01 | Double - silicon spread | - 292.0 | 18.0 | 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides historical price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents historical basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [19][20][22][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows historical inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [28][32][34][36][37][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - variety contract spread trend charts for the main contracts of coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal ratio, and double - silicon spread [42][44][46]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit trend charts for the main contract of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to fluctuate. The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics: in the long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to stimulate consumption and an increase in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; in the medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors; in the short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite, but with no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, there is no clear directional driver for the bond market [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Stock Index - On August 21, the A - share market closed down with oscillations. The Wind All - A index fell 0.13% with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index dropped 0.71%, the CSI 500 index declined 0.36%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.53% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.39%. Policies such as personal consumer loan interest subsidies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy program are expected to boost consumption and inflation. It is predicted that the central bank will purchase national debt to raise funds for the central government and introduce more inclusive fiscal support programs to stabilize and increase inflation [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher on August 21. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.34%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The weighted average rates of DR001 and DR007 decreased by 7bp and 5bp to 1.46% and 1.51% respectively. The LPR in August remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.50% [3]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures on August 21, IH rose 0.50%, IF increased 0.29%, IC dropped 0.58%, and IM declined 1.01%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the SSE 300 increased 0.39%, the CSI 500 fell 0.36%, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.71%. For treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.03%, TF increased 0.08%, T rose 0.02%, and TL increased 0.05% [4]. Market News - At the HKEX's 2025 interim results meeting, some market participants suggested extending trading hours. The HKEX CEO's response was misinterpreted. The HKEX stated that it is committed to providing more convenience to investors and is open to relevant suggestions, but extending trading hours has a significant impact on the market and requires careful consideration and consultation with all market participants [5]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, including the closing prices of corresponding stock index futures and the basis trends over time [7][8][9][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][22][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: All the futures varieties in the report are expected to show an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [1][3]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to rebound. The current Russia - Ukraine meeting still has certain uncertainties, and oil prices are slowly recovering from a pessimistic sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization, and supply reduction in September may support the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and demand in the north is relatively stable while that in the east is expected to recover. The market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range [3]. - **Polyester**: PX supply and demand continue to recover, and PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Ethylene glycol supply recovers well, and downstream demand is gradually improving [5]. - **Rubber**: Rubber raw materials are firm, tire demand and production are recovering, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic device maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments are stable. Port inventory is expected to increase, and methanol prices will oscillate narrowly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and with the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream demand is expected to increase. Overall, it will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up. With the intervention of industrial hedging, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI October contract rose $0.81/barrel to $63.52/barrel, a 1.29% increase. Brent October contract rose $0.83/barrel to $67.67/barrel, a 1.24% increase. SC2510 contract closed at 492.9 yuan/barrel at night, a 1.27% increase. There are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and some oil fields have restarted production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil both rose. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by supply reduction in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.72%, EG2601 fell 0.09%. Some PTA devices are under planned - out maintenance, and downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures rose. The operating loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices in different regions were reported. Domestic device maintenance led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments were stable. Port inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the prices of polyolefin products changed. Supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak season [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that the result of the Russia - Ukraine issue would be known in about two weeks, and the US might adopt other strategies. The Trump administration is expected to double the tariffs on India on August 27 [12]. - Two oil tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude oil arrived in US waters on Thursday, which was the first import of Venezuelan oil after Chevron obtained a new license from the US government [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][17][20]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [31][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., including 01 - 05, 09 - 01 spreads [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio charts of some varieties [62][66][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [73][76][78]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research and many honors [80]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many awards [81]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis ability and many honors [82]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On the 21st, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,635 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.66%, and the position increasing by 3,710 lots to 284,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.28%, and the position decreasing by 476 lots to 149,600 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The increase in polysilicon production is expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon has slowed down. There is obvious upward pressure, and it will still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range. Polysilicon shows a strong separation between quantity and price, with a contradiction between cost pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration cannot relieve the pressure on factory inventories. There are rumors that the production quota for the photovoltaic industry may be expanded at a photovoltaic conference, and there are numerous and divergent market price adjustment and production restriction news. Downstream players are highly cautious and there is little trading activity, which limits the continuous upward movement of polysilicon prices. In the short term, it is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range and continuously monitor the dynamics of industrial production restriction news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,330 yuan/ton on the 20th to 8,595 yuan/ton on the 21st, a rise of 265 yuan/ton. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 9,407 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt increased by 553 to 51,166, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1,295 tons to 252,995 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,875 yuan/ton on the 20th to 51,530 yuan/ton on the 21st, a drop of 345 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 90 to 6,460, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 168,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 12,300 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on various aspects such as industrial silicon prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts present the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 4. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst in gold, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and is frequently interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team Title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports [34]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner due to factors such as limited production cuts in some steel mills in Tangshan, a short - term production - limit period, and a decline in demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [1]. - **Iron Ore**: With an increase in global iron ore shipments and a slight fluctuation in hot - metal output, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Considering the slow resumption of coal mines and the high - level operation of hot - metal output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: As some coke enterprises have received production - limit notices and steel prices are weakly volatile, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, although there is still some rigid demand support [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: Given the continuous increase in silicomanganese production, low demand from steel mills, and a change in market sentiment, the silicomanganese futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: With continuous growth in ferrosilicon production, weak demand, and limited fundamental driving forces, the ferrosilicon futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Trading Volume | Position Change | Spot Price | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3132 yuan/ton (2510 contract) | +6 yuan/ton, +0.19% | - | -85,300 lots | Tangshan billet: 3020 yuan/ton; Hangzhou rebar: 3230 yuan/ton | Production decreased, social inventory increased, factory inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased slightly | Volatile and weak | | Iron Ore | 769 yuan/ton (i2601 contract) | -2 yuan/ton, -0.26% | 290,000 lots | -9,000 lots | PB powder: 767 yuan/ton; PB lump: 915 yuan/ton; Carajás fines: 878 yuan/ton; Super Special fines: 648 yuan/ton | Global shipments increased, and hot - metal output fluctuated slightly | Volatile consolidation | | Coking Coal | 1162.5 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -32 yuan/ton, -2.68% | - | -15,151 lots | Lvliang raw coal: 518 yuan/ton; Mongolian coal: decreased | Slow resumption of coal mines, high - level operation of hot - metal output | Volatile | | Coke | 1678 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -30.5 yuan/ton, -1.79% | - | +644 lots | Rizhao port: 1470 yuan/ton | Production enthusiasm of coke enterprises increased, some received production - limit notices | Volatile | | Silicomanganese | 5836 yuan/ton (main contract) | -2.24% | - | +19,417 lots to 282,100 lots | 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton | Production increased continuously, steel mills' demand was low | Volatile and weak | | Ferrosilicon | 5622 yuan/ton (main contract) | -1.75% | - | -4976 lots to 228,100 lots | 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton | Production increased, supply - demand was in a game | Volatile and weak | [1][3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities over different periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends between different contracts for various black commodities [28][32][34][36][37][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trends such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55].

Group 1: Index Movements - On August 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to close at 3766.21 points with a trading volume of 1017.5 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to close at 11926.74 points with a trading volume of 1390.734 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% with a trading volume of 517.521 billion yuan, opening at 7212.97, closing at 7305.46, with a high of 7305.46 and a low of 7166.99 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.09% with a trading volume of 409.671 billion yuan, opening at 6623.61, closing at 6728.07, with a high of 6728.07 and a low of 6598.55 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.23% with a trading volume of 139.706 billion yuan, opening at 2808.44, closing at 2846.99, with a high of 2848.03 and a low of 2799.4 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 62.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 72.76 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 48.03 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 34.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and non - bank finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 61.01, IM01 was - 110.72, IM02 was - 226.59, IM03 was - 387.11 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 61.45, IC01 was - 101.64, IC02 was - 192.4, IC03 was - 320.35 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 9.18, IF01 was - 15.65, IF02 was - 28.67, IF03 was - 49.83 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.76, IH01 was 0.74, IH02 was 3.57, IH03 was 5.75 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][24]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [26][27]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [29]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [28].