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光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:40
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.73%. The spot market rebounded significantly, with the mainstream regional market prices rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton. The supply level of urea fluctuated at a high level, and the daily output of the industry was 19.52 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous day. The follow - up sentiment on the demand side declined, and the spot sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream regions dropped to the 10% - 90% range. Urea enterprises continued to accumulate inventory by 6.95% this week. The domestic urea market still had weak drivers, but there were still disturbances from information such as the third export quota. It was expected that the urea futures price would still show a weak trend, and the 09 contract had stronger support. One could pay attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price dropped significantly. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline of 5.01%. The spot market quotation remained stable, but the traders' quotations declined following the futures. The natural soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia had fluctuating operations, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 86.96%. There was an expectation of a short - term shutdown of soda plants in Qinghai at the end of the month. The demand side had no obvious improvement, and the willingness of some mid - and downstream enterprises to stockpile raw materials was still weak after the price drop. The fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and the market sentiment cooled rapidly. It was expected that the short - term futures price would continue the weak oscillation state [1]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price showed a weak downward trend. The closing price of the main 01 contract was 1162 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.36%. The spot market was still weak. The daily melting volume of glass in production remained stable at 15.96 tons. The follow - up strength on the demand side did not increase significantly. The subsequent downstream processing enterprises might be affected by environmental protection and production restrictions, which would further suppress the rigid demand for glass and the enterprise's shipment. The supply - demand contradiction of glass still existed, and there were no favorable factors in the market. It was expected that the glass futures price would continue the weak oscillation state [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Urea** - On August 20, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3573, with no change from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 50 [4]. - On August 20, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.52 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.72 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate on that day was 84.33%, an increase of 8.14% compared with 76.19% in the same period last year [5]. - On August 20, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased. For example, in Shandong, it was 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 1780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 20, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons or 6.95% from the previous week [6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - On August 20, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10254, a decrease of 766 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast volume was 1351. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2388, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day [8]. - On August 20, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton [8]. - On August 20, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.96%, down from 88.89% on the previous working day [9]. - On August 20, the average price of the float glass market was 1149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 15.96 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as those showing the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, the price spreads between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [11][13][16][17][19][21][22]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:39
Group 1: Research Views - On August 20, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.89%. The position decreased by 6,737 lots to 279,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,407 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 440 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.52%. The position decreased by 12,109 lots to 150,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 7,305 yuan/ton [2]. - Southwest industrial silicon production continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry cut production and reduced procurement. The increase in polysilicon production was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between volume and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration could not relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. The actual production - restriction quotas and progress of the photovoltaic conference were still confidential, and market price - adjustment and production - restriction news was complex and divergent. Downstream players were highly skeptical and trading was scarce, which restricted the continuous upward movement of polysilicon. In the short term, short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued, and the industry's production - restriction news should be continuously monitored [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19 to 8,330 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,610 yuan/ton to 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades and regions generally declined. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China decreased from 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 340 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton [4]. - Among spot prices, the price of N - type granular silicon feedstock increased significantly, from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from - 7,760 yuan/ton to - 7,305 yuan/ton, a reduction of 455 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,625. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,930. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [34][35].
有色商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:37
Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the domestic spot import window remaining open. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and the market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" for signals on the Fed's future interest rate cuts. Domestically, measures are being taken to stabilize the real estate market. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE and BC copper inventories decreased. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up, and the market is in a balanced state awaiting external factors [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure on the market may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an unsmooth inventory build - up. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a time - for - space mode [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel fell 0.1%, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.15%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore premiums declined slightly, and stainless steel raw material prices were divided. The overall fundamentals changed little, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper decreased by 340 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The total weekly inventory increased by 4428 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1850 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2510 tons [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot premium increased by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2529 tons. The weekly total inventory increased by 7039 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 725 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 282 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 768 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. Zinc - The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.2%. LME inventory decreased by 950 tons, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. Tin - The主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. SHFE inventory decreased by 13 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. Social Inventory - Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng (Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute), Wang Heng (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon), and Zhu Xi (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel) [47][48].
光大期货软商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.04% to 67.53 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.5% to 14,055 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 10,082 lots to 478,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang remained flat at 15,080 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B dropped 3 yuan to 15,240 yuan per ton. Internationally, the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Symposium results, with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices fluctuating. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton declined with reduced positions. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, but the upcoming new - cotton harvest (a likely bumper crop) exerts upward pressure. The over - capacity of ginning mills and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain firm and fluctuate in the short term [2]. - For sugar, in July 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing sugar mills were mostly down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures lack a clear direction, showing a range - bound trend. The domestic investment market sentiment is optimistic, with sugar spot trading improving and prices slightly rising. However, facing pressure near previous highs and the weak performance of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue with a range - bound pattern [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a complex situation with inventory support and new - cotton supply pressure. The short - term outlook is a firm and fluctuating trend [2]. - **Sugar**: Import volume decreased, spot prices adjusted downward, and the futures market is range - bound due to lack of direction in raw sugar and pressure near previous highs [2]. Day - to - day Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 255 yuan, up 25 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,185 yuan, up 42 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,080 yuan (unchanged), and the national price was 15,240 yuan, down 3 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 62 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis was 314 yuan, down 25 yuan [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 20, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 141 to 7,455, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data also changed [5]. - **Sugar**: On August 20, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,970 yuan and 5,990 yuan respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 242 to 16,244, with 1 valid forecast [5][6]. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton over different time periods [9][11][12][13][14][15]. - **Sugar**: Charts display the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar over different years [17][18][20].
光大期货农产品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. Near the delivery, the September contract reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price dropping significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowing. After the November contract became the main contract, the price led the decline, and the January contract followed suit. The price range shifted downward. The price of Northeast corn has been weakly adjusted recently, and the market trading activity is poor. Traders have less remaining inventory, and the trading is also relatively light. Traders and deep - processing enterprises are mostly waiting for the new grain to be listed. The price of corn in North China has fluctuated, with an adjustment range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong remains low, but the continuous arrival of spring corn in some deep - processing enterprises supplements the supply, and enterprises adjust the price slightly according to their own situation. The price of corn in the sales area has been slightly adjusted and generally runs stably. The port pick - up speed is average, and downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use inventory. The market trading atmosphere is a bit light, and the new grain in the northwest has been sporadically listed, attracting high attention. Technically, with the November contract as the main contract, the supply pressure of the new grain listing continues to affect the market, and the corn futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory weak trend. However, it should be noted that the January contract should pay short - term attention to the price performance at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose, supported by the increase in soybean meal futures. The market is also paying attention to the results of the Midwest crop inspection. The second - day survey by Pro Farmer showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than the 2024 level, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years. The market is looking forward to the results of the export sales report on Thursday, with an expected net increase in soybean sales of 10 - 130 tons. In the domestic market, soybean meal oscillates. The spot market provides little guidance, and the supply remains in a relatively loose pattern. Currently, the market is waiting for further guidance on China's soybean procurement in the fourth quarter. The repeated fluctuations in Brazilian premiums and US soybean prices have led to a slightly stronger import cost. The market is still worried about the long - term supply, resulting in a relatively strong futures price. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - position thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell due to profit - taking and the weakness of related markets, but the strong export data of Malaysian palm oil limited the decline. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% - 17.5% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is waiting for the EPA's ruling on exempting some small refineries from the blending obligation. The market is worried that this may affect future vegetable oil demand. In the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of the three major oils has increased, and the demand is still relatively weak, with the pre - school stocking demand not yet started. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The oil market is in a bullish trend. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2510 oscillated higher after opening and then declined. As of the close, it rose 0.23% to 3072 yuan/500 kilograms, and the near - month 2509 contract rose 0.57% to 3000 yuan/500 kilograms. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.21 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month. Among the production areas, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month - on - month. Among the sales areas, the price of Puxi brown - shell eggs was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin month - on - month. The terminal digestion is average, and most traders purchase according to sales. The egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing a slight decline. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. Considering the supply - side pressure, the peak is likely to be lower than that of last year. In the short term, the futures will continue to decline, and the intraday rally yesterday followed by a decline shows that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish [1]. - The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the live pig futures oscillated, and the main 2511 contract fell 0.9% to 13775 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 13.78 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg month - on - month. The average price of live pigs in the standard delivery area of Henan remained flat month - on - month, while the prices in Guangdong, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Shandong increased to varying degrees. In the northern region, the breeding side continued to reduce supply and hold back sales, and downstream enterprises increased the purchase price. Affected by the north, the breeding side in the south has a mentality of driving up prices and mostly holds back sales, supporting the rise in pig prices. According to the seasonal pattern, as the high - temperature weather subsides in various places in the future, demand will recover. Coupled with the main theme of anti - involution, there is support for pig prices. However, the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The live pig spot price has rebounded slightly at a low level, and the futures will continue to oscillate weakly. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment on the live pig futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual export volume. The Malaysian government will continue to provide assistance through measures such as the oil palm small - farmer replanting financing incentive plan, including providing special subsidy products for preventing Ganoderma disease [3]. - In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of the 27 EU countries and the UK was 134.0 million tons, up from 123.7 million tons in June but down from 156.9 million tons in July 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 104.6 million tons, down from 115.1 million tons in June and 112.6 million tons in July 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in July was 259.3 million tons, lower than 275.4 million tons in June and 313.6 million tons in July 2024 [3]. - US private exporters reported sales of 125,741 tons of corn to Mexico and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - Malaysian independent inspection机构 Amspec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5%. Shipping survey机构 ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis data for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [5][13]
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:35
Group 1: Research Views - Yesterday, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract dropping to 80,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 85,700 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 83,400 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons [3]. - The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security will subject steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and red dates to stricter reviews due to alleged human - rights violations against the Uyghur population in these industries. However, for lithium batteries exported to the US, raw material procurement is generally avoided. In July 2025, China imported 750,700 tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 174,800 tons; the import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,853 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. Spodumene - based lithium production increased by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, lepidolite - based lithium production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons, salt - lake - based lithium production increased by 300 tons to 2,742 tons, and recycled - material - based lithium production increased by 157 tons to 1,679 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased this week, with the total inventory decreasing by 162 tons to 142,256 tons. The upstream reduced inventory, while other links and downstream increased inventory [3]. - Currently, the production issues of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and is facing short - term回调 pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 87,540 yuan/ton on August 19 to 80,980 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 6,560 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 87,580 yuan/ton to 81,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,540 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium ores, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 978 US dollars/ton to 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,385 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 2,185 yuan/ton to 2,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 7,765 yuan/ton to 7,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton to 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton [5]. - For lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized), industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,300 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 7,960 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 22 yuan/ton [5]. - Among precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - For batteries, the prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 square ternary battery cell, 523 cylindrical ternary battery, and cobalt acid battery cell [5]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][29][30][31][32][33]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [35][36][37][38]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [40][41][42][43]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [44][45]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has served many leading spot enterprises. He has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure [49]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [49]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Square, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [52]
光大期货能化商品日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].
光大期货金融期货日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:20
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and a recovery in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data [1]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite, but with no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, it should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: On August 20, 2025, the A - share market fluctuated and rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.97% and a trading volume of 2.45 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also increased. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to drive inflation recovery through more inclusive fiscal support. The market is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On August 20, 2025, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan. Short - term, the bond market is under pressure due to risk appetite recovery, and should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with increases of 1.27%, 1.28%, 1.44%, and 1.37% respectively [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all increased, with increases of 1.23%, 1.14%, 1.09%, and 0.86% respectively [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, with decreases of - 0.01%, - 0.16%, - 0.19%, and - 0.42% respectively [4]. Market News - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.50%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the trends of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [27]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures [27].
农产品日报(2025年8月20日)-20250820
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 03:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties: - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Edible Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating downward [1] - Pork: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are affected by new grain supply pressure and market sentiment, with the 11 - month contract leading the decline and the 1 - month contract potentially rebounding after a sharp drop [1]. - Soybean meal prices are supported by concerns over long - term supply, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - Edible oils are in a bullish trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by external market performance and inventory changes. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Egg prices are currently weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, although the peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. - Pork prices are under supply pressure, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with the recovery of demand and the anti - involution trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices decreased with increased positions. The 11 - month contract led the decline, and the 1 - month contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn prices were weak, while North China prices were strong over the weekend. Shandong Shouguang's deep - processing corn purchase price rose to 2490 yuan/ton on August 18, up 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The market is waiting for new grain, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to profit - taking, but the reduced autumn harvest forecast provided support. US soybean meal rose, and domestic protein meal was strong during the day but fell at night. The import cost was slightly stronger, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking and weak crude oil. Domestic edible oils were strong during the day but fell at night, led by palm oil. The inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils increased by 0.98 tons compared to last week. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, egg futures continued to weaken. The main 2510 contract fell 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500 kg, and the near - month 2509 contract fell 2.7%. The spot price increased slightly. Terminal consumption was stable, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future [1]. - **Pork**: On Monday, the main 2511 contract of pork futures weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.9% at 13820 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased slightly. Supply pressure persists, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with demand recovery [2]. Market Information - Brazil's competition management agency CADE plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan," and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) will appeal [2]. - ProFarmer's crop inspection shows that the expected corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 is 185.69 bushels, and in South Dakota is 174.18 bushels. The expected average number of soybean pods in Ohio is 1287.28, and in South Dakota is 1188.45 [3]. - The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills reached 64.64% as of August 16, an increase of 2.08% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 241.68 tons, an increase of 7.79 tons from last week. The expected processing volume this week is 247 tons, with a crushing rate of 66.07% [4]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 - 15 was 392.46 reais/ton, slightly lower than the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1525.17 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6166.27 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][24]
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250820
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 03:23
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Urea**: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].