1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...

ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 27.00% 37.00% 10. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 T325加工费(右轴) t T325年演出版 (探贝) 太原始翁· 短规金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weakened again. There is no bright spot in the off - season demand, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The basis of steel is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is still room for the basis to shrink. The off - season may see the basis repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - The coking coal spot has continued to recover, and the futures have rebounded again. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have improved, but the futures have been under pressure due to factors such as the alleviation of geopolitical conflicts and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable in the short term, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The iron ore shipment is gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight destocking to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally and for the industry clients to actively participate in selling hedging for coking coal and coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On June 25, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2978 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan, - 0.30%), HC2601 at 3099 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan, - 0.19%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan, - 0.33%), HC2510 at 3098 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan, - 0.26%), etc. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [2]. Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou螺纹 were 3050 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively on June 25. The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou热卷 were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3190 yuan/ton, and 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coking coal, the downstream replenished the raw materials appropriately. The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 1140 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and the coking coal price index was 937.1 (+ 0.6). The Mongolian coal market had more inquiries, and the border trade enterprises had a strong willingness to hold prices [5]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and no strong rebound driver. The basis is in a futures - discount - to - spot structure, and there is a possibility of the basis being repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal spot is improving, and the futures have rebounded. However, the futures may be under pressure due to factors such as the potential increase in supply and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - **Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon**: The prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The short - term supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally [6].

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | TC 国贸期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沥青数据日报 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号:Z0021177 卢钊毅 | | | | 2025/6/26 | | 呉沥青 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | 들 | | 华东 华北 | 华南 | 东北 | 西北 | 山东 | | 现点 | 现值 | 3710 3780 | 3680 | 3900 | 3900 | 3750 | | 货 区 域 | 前值 | 3780 3830 | 3690 | 3900 | 3900 | 3800 | | 涨幅 | | (70) (50) | (10) | 0 | 0 | (50) | | 企 | | 东海-山东 昆仑-广东 海韵-山东 弘润-山东 路畅-山东 长江-江苏 | | | | | | 现业 | 现值 | 3950 3480 | 3710 | 3580 | 3750 | 3630 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 25th, glass and soda ash prices fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, the price elasticity at low levels is relatively large [2]. - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot price is poor, production and sales are weak, inventory accumulation is accelerating, and the outlook has become more pessimistic. Overall, the supply - demand situation may remain weak, with insufficient cost support, and prices are under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - For soda ash, after the end of maintenance, supply has recovered rapidly. There is an expectation of weakening direct demand, and concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced. The profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, the negative feedback has intensified, and cost support has weakened. In the short term, prices may tend to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market Data - **Glass Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1159, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 41. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1200, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.08%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 34, with a change of 0. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1166, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between September and January contracts is 7, with a change of 0 [1]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1066, with no change and a change rate of 0.0%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 130. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1107, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.09%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 90, with a change of - 1. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1017, with a change of 2 and a change rate of 0.2%. The price difference between September and January contracts is - 49, with a change of 2 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Glass Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1230; in other regions, it is 1300 and 9960 (assumed to be a data error, might need further clarification). - **Soda Ash Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1350; in other regions, it is 1300 [1]. Basis Data - **Glass Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from - 206 to 283. - **Soda Ash Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from 134 to 213 [1]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the prices of glass and soda ash may tend to fluctuate. Participate with option call options [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Coal and Gas**: The price of Jincheng anthracite is 900.00, Inner Mongolia steam coal is 630.00, Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas is 4330.00 (down 20.00 from the previous day), international natural gas is 12.00 (down 1.62 from the previous day) [1]. - **Methanol**: Spot prices in many places increased slightly. For example, the price in Taicang is 2620.00 (down 20.00 from the previous day), Inner Mongolia is 2060.00, and Shandong is 2260.00 (up 20.00 from the previous day). The domestic production is 292718.00 (down 1100.00 from the previous day), and the domestic operating rate is 91.27 (down 0.34 from the previous day) [1]. - **Formaldehyde**: The market shows mixed trends. The formaldehyde price in Shandong is 920.00, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Related Products**: Dimethyl ether price is 3450.00 (down 100.00 from the previous day), MTBE price is 5230.00 (down 120.00 from the previous day) [1]. Market Analysis - **Methanol Market**: In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories are at a low level. Downstream and traders have a stronger willingness to replenish at low prices, and the auction transaction prices of enterprises are rising. The positive sentiment in the futures market drives smooth transactions of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stop selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices generally. However, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, and after replenishing at low prices, their purchases become more rational [1]. - **Formaldehyde Market**: The raw material methanol has a slight correction, strengthening the cost - side support. But as the downstream enters the off - season, formaldehyde production enterprises face greater shipment pressure and adjust their shipment mechanisms according to their own inventory [1].

期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/6/26 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 0.11 | DR007 | 1.69 | 2.52 | | | GC001 | 1.81 | 21.00 | GC007 | 1.97 | 7.00 | | 化 贝 | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | H | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.28 | 5年期国债 | 1.52 | 0.03 | | 市 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.30 | -4.00 | | 场 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3653亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日1563亿元逆回购 | | | | | | | 与 | 到期,据此计算,单日净投放2090亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The rebound of futures prices is mainly due to market rumors, but the credibility of these rumors is low and their impact on the fundamentals is limited. The current core contradiction lies in the downstream's "just - in - time procurement + multiple small - batch" approach and no obvious signs of production cuts. The price rebound provides hedging space for the lithium salt sector, further creating upward pressure. In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price: 60,200 yuan, up 300 yuan [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price: 58,600 yuan, up 300 yuan [1] - Price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 1,600 yuan [2] 2. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate 2507 closing price: 61,180 yuan, up 1.02% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2508 closing price: 60,880 yuan, up 0.89% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2509 closing price: 60,800 yuan, up 0.96% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2510 closing price: 60,740 yuan, up 0.76% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2511 closing price: 60,740 yuan, up 1.2% [1] 3. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%): 619 yuan, up 2 yuan [1] - Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%): 685 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] - Lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%): 1,210 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%): 4,875 yuan, down 350 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%): 5,725 yuan, down 350 yuan [2] 4. Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price: 30,230 yuan, up 70 yuan [2] - Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) average price: 142,690 yuan, down 70 yuan [2] - Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) average price: 114,225 yuan, up 50 yuan [2] - Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) average price: 120,305 yuan, down 70 yuan [2] 5. Price Spreads - Price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract: - 680 yuan, up 120 yuan [2] - Price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract: 100 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - Price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract: 300 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] 6. Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons): 134,901 tons, up 1,352 tons [2] - Smelter inventory (weekly, tons): 58,625 tons, up 972 tons [2] - Downstream inventory (weekly, tons): 40,366 tons, down 320 tons [2] - Other inventory (weekly, tons): 35,910 tons, up 700 tons [2] - Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons): 22,370 tons, down 5 tons [2] 7. Profit Estimation - Cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally: 60,147 yuan, profit: - 786 yuan [3] - Cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally: 64,891 yuan, profit: - 7,024 yuan [3] 8. Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]