【豆油&棕榈油】 今日商品整体表现偏强,宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆油棕榈油也有一定的溢出效应,由 于油脂驱动偏多，因此更受到青睐。美豆走强，美元偏弱以及市场担心阿根廷大豆产区温度偏高，豆粕也呈现 反弹状态，油粕比冲高回落，豆棕价差下跌，棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示供需面边际转好。另 外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策,利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格继续上涨,利于美国生物质柴油 行业利润转好，利于支撑美豆油价格。2026年气象模型预计夏季发生厄尔尼诺概率大，总体来看，利于油脂表 现偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降,压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳,下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大,基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口维持高位 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 伊朗局势高度紧张，美国总统特朗普周三敦促伊朗回到谈判桌前，就核武器问题达成协议，否则美 国的下一次攻击将会更加猛烈。EIA数据显示美国原油超预期去库。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前 恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始终不及预期。美元指数连续走弱亦提 振油价表现。短期多重利多因素共振下夜盘油价继续走高且已升至2025年9月底以来最高。她缘局 势走向扑朔迷离叠加基本面累库压制仍在,警惕油价大幅波动风险。 (贵金属) 隔夜贵金属延续强势表现，金银继续刷新新高。美联储会议如期维持利率不变，鲍威尔并未释放槽 量信息，表示政策没有预定路线，加息不在预期之内。关注中东局势是否会进一步激化，消息称美 国可能对伊朗发动重大打击。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜减仓震荡，美联储如预期维持利率不变，但金价美盘尾盘继续加速上涨，美盘铜价跟涨。 LME0-3月现货贴水101美元,国内上海铜贴水240元,美伦价差已反转。关注短期均线位置强弱,延 续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 铅价回踩万七，下游少量备货，但整体采买热情平平。精废价差100元/吨，再生铅亏损压 ...

隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金核心逻辑稳固，金银比大幅走低后白银风险较 高。特朗普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队,但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引,美联储维持利率不变已形成共识,重点关注鲍威尔讲话。 铂纪盘面高波动,资金倾向短线操作,铂兜价格冲高回落,5日均线附近暂时止跌,大方向上看,资金逢低 做多倾向依然明显。铂把价差190元/克左右。铂兜降波后再拉升，整体仍处上升趋势中。美元信用承压，资 源脆性强,盘子小,资金控盘能力高,在看到资金流动性明确收紧的信号前, 铂把仍偏向逢低多配。 ★特朗普:不担心美元贬值,可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 ★美联储传声筒:美联储预计将暂停降息,恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 ★芝加哥商品交易所集团宣布对COMEX 5000白银期货合约实施保证金调整，将初始保证金要求提高到11%。 本月早些时候，芝商所将贵金属期货保证金从定额改为按百分比征收。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | >国技期货 111 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No specific rating mentioned but market shows strength [2] - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: No specific rating mentioned, mixed signals in market [2] - PX and PTA: Positive in the first half of the year, but with inventory concerns around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Potential for short - term improvement in the second quarter, long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre: Price follows raw materials, weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip: Consider spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure [3] - Pure Benzene: Short - term uncertainty, potential downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene: Short - term price pressure [5] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline slowly [6] - Urea: Price fluctuates within a range [6] - PVC: Monitor export and cost factors, inventory pressure exists [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak reality, potential for production cut, profit compression [7] - Soda Ash: High - altitude shorting strategy, long - term oversupply pressure [8] - Glass: Seasonal inventory build - up expected, follow macro sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, cost changes, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal factors. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities, with some facing short - term uncertainties and others having long - term capacity pressures [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with low enterprise inventory and increased buying due to strong futures and downstream restocking [2] - Polyethylene has supply pressure and decreasing demand, while polypropylene has cost support and reduced inventory pressure but weak new orders [2] Polyester - PX and PTA may be bullish in the first half, but inventory may accumulate around the Spring Festival. Consider positive spreads in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol may improve in the second quarter but is under long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre price follows raw materials with weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip may have spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure exists [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene price is strong but may face downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline [6] - Urea price fluctuates within a range due to demand and supply factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC has inventory pressure, and its price is affected by exports and costs [7] - Caustic Soda has high inventory and profit compression, with potential for production cuts [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash has inventory pressure and long - term oversupply, use a high - altitude shorting strategy [8] - Glass may have seasonal inventory build - up and follow macro sentiment [8]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月28日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | 棕櫚油 | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆油&棕榈油】 豆油延续增仓，棕榈油减仓,油箱比仍强势上行,豆棕价差下跌,棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示 供需面边际转好,另外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策，利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格上涨，利于 美国生物质柴油行业 ...

| >国技期货 111 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月28日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金核心逻辑稳固，金银比大幅走低后白银风险较 高。特朗普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队,但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引,美联储维持利率不变已形成共识,重点关注鲍威尔讲话。 铂纪盘面高波动,资金倾向短线操作,铂兜价格冲高回落,5日均线附近暂时止跌,大方向上看,资金逢低 做多倾向依然明显。铂把价差190元/ ...

| | | | mile | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年01月28日 | 操作评级 | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | ☆☆☆ | 原油 | | F3066912 Z0016785 | ★☆★ | 燃料油 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | 李海群 中级分析师 | ★☆☆ | | 沥青 | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | 010-58747784 | | | 【原油】 价大幅反弹,Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶,WTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能源基础设施和电网 承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日,约占全国产量的15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前 恢复不到一半的正常产量,该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏 利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构 平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压力显著,市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动,供需宽松 始终是压制油价上行空间的长期因素。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/1/27 能源板块时序动量边际下降 商品本周多空占比变化不大。主要表现 贵金属因子强度维持高位,能源板块小 幅回落,农产品板块仍然维持中性偏弱 格局,目前,截面偏强的板块是贵金 属,截面偏弱的是黑色和农产品。具体 来看,黄金时序动量小幅回升,白银的 持仓量继续边际上升。有色板块短周期 动量回升,期限结构分化收窄,铜和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际小幅 回落,截面上螺纹偏强焦炭偏空。能化 板块短周期动量截面分化收窄,整体时 序动量下降。农产品方面,大部分品种 短周期动量没有发生明显反转,棕榈油 持仓量上升。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 佛诗 | 1.05 | 1.05 | | 需求 | 0.00 | 0.47 | | 库存 | 1.12 | 1.46 | | 价差 | 0.00 | 0.22 | | 大类累加 | 0.83 | 1.18 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走强 1.05%,库存因子走高1.12%,合成因子 上行0.83%,本周综合信号多头。基本面 因子上 ...