Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver continued to be strong with large intraday fluctuations. The US government shutdown and tariff frictions increased market uncertainty, and the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction strengthened the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, but in the short term, the rising speed of gold and silver is too fast, with obvious overbought signs on the disk and high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Fed Governor Milan called for an accelerated pace of interest - rate cuts, but the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP, and he said that two more rate cuts this year are realistic; apart from gold, there is no risk premium in the market [1] Other Summaries US Economic Situation - The Federal Reserve said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, and the employment level has generally remained stable. Overall consumer spending has declined slightly, while prices continue to rise, and several Fed districts reported an accelerated increase in input costs. The cost increase caused by tariffs has been reported in many districts, but the degree of transmission of these higher costs to final prices varies [2] International Events - The Trump administration authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela, and Trump confirmed this news. Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume operations at his order [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1]. - It assigns a ★☆☆ rating to coke and coking coal, indicating a bullish or bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase or decrease, but poor operability on the market [1]. Core Views - The demand expectation for steel remains weak, and the market stabilizes slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of China-US game and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the upcoming important meetings [3]. - The support near the previous low of coke and coking coal is relatively solid, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for rebar increased significantly month-on-month but remained weak year-on-year. Production continued to decline, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils also increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Iron ore production remained high, but downstream demand was insufficient. As steel mill profits declined, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain continued to ferment. From the perspective of downstream industries, the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability, real estate investment declined significantly, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports remained high in September. The demand expectation remained weak, and the market stabilized slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume increased, and there was no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased significantly after the holiday, and iron ore production remained high with resilience. Steel mills had a certain demand for phased replenishment, but as profits shrank and demand remained relatively low, the pressure for future production cuts gradually increased. External trade frictions continued, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthened, and market sentiment weakened. It still needs subsequent policy support. It is expected that iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated upward during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profit levels were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre-holiday replenishment, downstream users are currently consuming inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures market is slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to increase slightly, the spot auction volume decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. Terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month-on-month, and production-end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking coal futures market is slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5,750 yuan/ton. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but production remained at a high level. Silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand remained good. The quoted price of manganese ore shipments increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price mainly oscillated during the day. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was okay. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having varying supply - demand relationships and price trends. The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal demand changes [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakens again after a short - term recovery, and the market trading atmosphere is average [2] - PE supply pressure increases, and terminal demand is limited. PP has more maintenance devices, but supply remains loose, and demand support is insufficient [2] Polyester - PX price rebounds, driving downstream products up. PTA supply is expected to increase, and overall PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. In the short - term, prices may stabilize, but in the medium - term, they may continue to be weak [3] - Ethylene glycol domestic operation declines slightly, and the port continues to accumulate inventory. The impact of Sino - US trade on hexanediol is positive [3] - Short fiber follows the raw material to rebound. Spot is firm, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound, but the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline. Styrene supply is sufficient, and terminal demand support is worrying [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply rhythm is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to port inventory changes. Urea supply is loose, and the market is likely to continue to be weak [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure and export challenges. Caustic soda shows a marginal improvement trend, and the decline of futures price is expected to be limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to accumulate inventory, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Glass may rise due to supply - side news despite weak current reality [8]

国产大豆冲高回落,今日国储拍卖44835吨，全部流拍,底价3900元/吨,成交需求转差。进口大豆方面市场仍 然担忧美豆的出口需求,中国对美国大豆新作尚未进行采购,由于中国的采购体量大,其他国家难以匹敌中国 的市场规模,因此美豆出口需要经受出口的考验,美豆价格预计会受到需求端的打压,去进行压力测试。短期 持续关注海外内大豆政策端以及基本面的指引。 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年10月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | なな☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | ...

Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: Styrene [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Plastics [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Propylene, Polypropylene, PVC, Bottle Chip [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances and various influencing factors such as geopolitical events, trade conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Different chemical products have different trends, with some facing downward pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while others may have short - term support or upward trends due to factors like reduced production or increased demand [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakened again as downstream factories were reluctant to chase price increases. The trading atmosphere was average [2]. - PE supply pressure increased, and terminal demand was limited. PP had more maintenance devices, but supply remained abundant, and demand support was insufficient [2]. Polyester - PX price rebounded, driving up downstream products. PX supply had a short - term contraction, while PTA supply was expected to increase. Overall, PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak. PX might improve in the short term, but both PX and PTA were expected to be weak in the medium term [3]. - EG domestic operation declined slightly, and ports continued to accumulate inventory. Its price was at the bottom of the range. The impact of Sino - US trade tensions on hexanediol was positive [3]. - Short fiber followed the raw material rebound. New capacity was limited, and demand improved. However, there was an expectation of demand decline as the weather turned cold, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded, but imports and weak demand expectations dragged down the market. - Styrene supply was sufficient, and new device plans might increase pressure. Terminal demand was worried about being insufficient due to trade conflicts [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply and high - inventory logic were affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to port inventory and trade disputes [6]. - Urea was in a weak situation with high supply and weak demand. Although there was an expectation of demand increase, overall support was insufficient [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed an oscillating trend. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Exports were under pressure due to trade conflicts, and it might oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda was oscillating strongly. Inventory decreased, and demand improved. The decline of futures price was expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory. Supply was high, and demand increase was limited. The oversupply pattern remained, and it was advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass futures rose at the end due to news. Inventory was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. Futures price might rise due to supply - side news [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under pressure due to the unresolved Sino - US trade game and the expected increase in market looseness in the fourth quarter. However, geopolitical factors may bring risk premiums [1]. - The fuel oil market fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical news. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025, and the support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4 [2]. - The LPG main contract has risen, with changes in Saudi CP forecasts, US propane exports, and inventory levels. The demand in the traditional peak season is expected to increase but has not significantly improved yet [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC11 contract rose 0.02%. The Sino - US trade game and the expected market looseness in the fourth quarter put pressure on the oil market. Last week, US API crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels more than expected. The medium - term bearish view on crude oil remains unchanged, but geopolitical factors may increase risk premiums [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple geopolitical news has affected the market, causing fuel oil to fluctuate with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks, but faces medium - term pressure due to the end of the Middle East power - generation and refining peak season and potential suppression of shipping fuel demand. Strategies can focus on shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread after geopolitical situations become clear. Low - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, with a weak fundamental situation [1]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that factory and social inventories have decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and commercial inventories have decreased by 40,000 tons compared to last week. The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025. The support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4. The cost increase has driven the BU futures price up, but the spot price is still weak, and the basis has weakened [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 3% today. Saudi's latest November CP forecast has increased the propane and butane prices. US propane exports have decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased. In the traditional peak season, the demand for combustion is expected to increase, but the actual demand has not significantly improved. The futures price has gradually recovered from the low level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

| Milli | 国控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银延续强势,日内维持较大波动。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声 强化货币宽松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显,波动风险较 大，观望为主。 ★美联储理事米兰呼吁加快降息步伐,但（单次）降息幅度无需超过50BP，其称今年再降息两次是观实的; 除了黄金，看不到市场中已包含风险溢价。 ★美国联邦储备委员会表示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，就业水平总体保持稳定。根据美联储周三发布 的对各联储辖区商业联络人所作调查的褐皮书报告，整体消费者支出小幅回落。与此同时，价格继续上涨， 几个联储辖区报告投入成本上升速度加快。美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish tendency with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook and poor trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish view and low trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend and limited trading opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short-term trend and poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is under pressure, with crude oil having a mid-term bearish trend, and other energy products also facing various supply and demand challenges and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined further, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.79% intraday. Uncertainty in Sino-US trade and increased expected supply-demand surplus are pressuring the oil market. The mid-term bearish view remains unchanged, and short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US talks during the APAC meeting at the end of the month [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is following the decline of crude oil. High-sulfur fuel oil is relatively stable in the short term but faces multiple pressures in the medium term. Strategies include shorting high-sulfur cracking spreads and widening high-low sulfur spreads after geopolitical tensions ease. Low-sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, and attention should be paid to the impact of increased port fees on trade and demand [2] Asphalt - The asphalt supply-demand remains in a tight balance. It follows the decline of crude oil but with limited跌幅, and the cracking spread rebounds. There is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation by the end of 2025, and the fundamental support is expected to weaken in the later Q4, with continued pressure from the cost side [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG is resistant to decline at a low level. The US propane export volume has decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. There is increased supply pressure from overseas associated gas, and downstream procurement is mainly for刚需. The demand in the combustion end is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not significantly improved [3]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜国际油价震荡,布伦特12合约涨0.31%。中美贸易博弈悬而未决令市场仍处避险倾向，三大机 构10月报总体将今明两年的供需盈余分别上调21万桶/天、46万桶/天，市场宽松放大的预期进一步 对油市构成压力，上周美国API原油库存超预期增加736万桶。原油中期偏空思路不变,短期关注月 末APAC会议期间中美会谈对风险情绪的摇摆。 【责金属】 隔夜金银延续强势。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声强化货币宽 松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固，但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显，波动风险较大， 观望为主。 【铜】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存持续上升，供应过剩明显。9月晋豫平均成本在3000元左 右，当前指数价格尚不足以触发晋豫现金亏损减产但正在接近，氧化铝弱势运行为主。 (镇及不锈钢) 沪镍弱势运行，市场交投平淡。中美摩擦再度提升不确定性，宏观逐步向风险偏好降低的方向发 展。不锈钢基本面偏弱。传统消费旺季下游需求复苏有限，市场成交较为清淡，社会库存也出现止 降回升的趋势。高操铁报价在953元每锦点，纯银库存增近3000吨至4 ...