Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The listing of coking coal options on January 16, 2026, can improve market liquidity issues and meet the diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises and investors [1][2][4] - Currently, the coking coal market is in a "ceiling" pattern with limited rebound space due to high supply and weak demand [9] - If the implied volatility of options is significantly higher than historical volatility after listing, the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Option Listing Information - Coking coal options will be listed for trading on January 16, 2026, with night - trading starting on the same night. The first batch of listed contracts are based on JM2604 - JM2612 futures contracts [1] - The trading of coking coal options can use limit orders and limit stop (profit) orders, with a maximum order quantity of 1000 lots per time. The position limit is 8000 lots, and coking coal options and futures are separately limited [1] 3.2 Listing Background - During the "anti - involution" market in July 2025, coking coal experienced multiple limit - up and limit - down situations, resulting in market liquidity problems. The listing of coking coal options can largely improve these two issues [2] 3.3 Comparison with Futures - Options are more refined risk - management tools. After listing, enterprises can flexibly choose different types of option contracts and strategy combinations, and futures investors can use options to hedge futures position risks [4] 3.4 Contract Details - The contract details include the contract subject (coking coal futures contract), contract type (call and put options), trading unit (1 lot of 60 - ton coking coal futures contract), etc [5] - The exercise price covers a certain price range, and the exercise price intervals vary according to different months and price ranges [5] - The exercise method is American, and the buyer can submit an exercise application before 15:30 on the expiration date or on any trading day before the expiration date [5] 3.5 Volatility - Since the options are not yet listed, historical volatility can be used as a reference. The average historical volatility of coking coal is around 39%, and the 20 - day historical volatility (20HV) is more affected by single - day large fluctuations. It is reasonably speculated that the implied volatility on the listing day is around 40% [4][5][6] 3.6 Fundamental Situation - The coking coal market is currently in a "ceiling" pattern, with limited rebound space. Supply is the main suppressing factor, and demand is weak, so the upward resistance of coking coal prices is large, and there is a lack of short - term trend - rising power [9] 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Different option strategies can be matched according to the views on the option underlying (bullish, bearish, range - break, or oscillating) and the option volatility trend (rising or falling) [10] - Based on the fundamental situation and historical volatility, if the implied volatility of options is significantly higher than historical volatility after listing, the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [12]

| 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月PPI录得3%为7月以来新高，零售销售月率录得0.6%略高于预期，美联储多位官员讲话对短 期内降息持否定态度。伊朗局势处于高度紧张状态,尽管释放一定暂缓行动信号,但不确定性依然很强,消 息称联合国安理会将于15日应美国要求举行伊朗局势紧急会议。责金属整体维持多头思路，白银连续拉涨后 波动加剧。今日关注美国1月SPGI制造业PMI初值和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁 ...

豆棕油及豆粕市场年度展望 国投期货研究院 吴小明 投资咨询号Z0015853 202601 全球大豆供需状况 PART 1 全球油料供需格局同比微松 | 7种油籽供需 | | 2020/20 | 2021/20 | 2022/20 | 2023/20 | 2024/20 | 2025/20 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 平衡表 | | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 同比 | | 同比% | | 期初库存 | 万吨 | 11305 | 11566 | 11557 | 12298 | 13607 | 14169 | 562 | 4 . | 1% | | 产量 | 万吨 | 60926 | 61069 | 63730 | 65737 | 68434 | 69315 | 881 | 1 . | 3% | | 进口 | 万吨 | 19101 | 17768 | 19805 | 20466 | 20679 | 21173 | 495 | 2 . | 4% | | 压榨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, China's imports and exports both outperformed expectations against a high - base backdrop. The trade surplus reached $114.14 billion [3]. - In 2026, export growth may remain resilient. Exports to the US may slightly recover, while exports to the EU may continue to slow, and exports to ASEAN and other neighboring countries are expected to drive overall export growth. Imports of commodities and high - tech products are accelerating, and future import volumes are expected to be further boosted by domestic demand expansion policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 December Import and Export Data - Exports in December increased by 6.60% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.22%. Imports increased by 5.70% year - on - year, compared to a 1.90% increase in the previous period [3]. 3.2 Export Market Analysis - The top three export markets in December were ASEAN, the EU, and the US. Exports to ASEAN increased by 11.15% year - on - year, to the EU by 11.63%, and to the US decreased by 30.01% year - on - year [3]. - Exports of high - tech products, such as special equipment, high - end machine tools, and industrial robots, increased significantly [3]. 3.3 Import Analysis - In December, import value rebounded, and the year - on - year growth rate improved significantly. The import value of copper ore and its concentrates increased by 33.21% year - on - year, becoming one of the main drivers of import growth [3]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - In 2026, export growth may remain resilient. Exports to the US may see a slight recovery in the context of the phased easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations. EU demand may continue to weaken, and exports to the EU may continue to slow. Exports to ASEAN and other neighboring countries are expected to drive overall export growth [3]. - Imports of commodities and high - tech products are accelerating, and future import volumes are expected to be further boosted by domestic demand expansion policies [3].

| | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所下跌，棉花现货成交一般，基差总体持稳。截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环比增加110.11万吨, 同比增加9.96万吨，12月中旬时商业库存同比小幅偏少。截至1月8号，累计加工友棉696.9万吨，同比增加63.3万吨，较过去四 年均值增加132.3万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实，会议上提 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 【焦炭】 日内价格震荡为主。焦炭成交价格零星上涨，焦化利润一般，日产略微抬升。焦炭库存几无变动，关注下周下游采购量是否抬 升，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水大概率触底回升，目前对原材料需求保持淡季水平，钢材利 润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦炭盘面升水，不过市场对煤炭相关政策 ...

★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁实际是货币政策问题，一月份没有降息的必要。②保尔森：今年晚 些时候小幅降息可能较为合适。③橘皮书：有八个地区的整体经济活动以小幅至温和的速度增长，三个地区 报告无变化,一个地区报告温和下降。④共和党人士：鲍威尔可能缺席一年两度的国会听证会。⑤博斯蒂克 称控制通胀的挑战尚未取得胜利,需继续采取限制性政策。⑥术兰批评外国央行决策者为鲍威尔辩护不恰 当。 ★伊朗局势 东多个主要基地撤出人员。③英媒：特朗普政府已获50个伊朗高价值军事目标清单。④伊朗革命卫队称已达 最高战备状态，导弹库存已增加。⑤美侦察机沿伊朗边界飞行。6多国敦促其公民离开伊朗。 | 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月15日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な女女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★★★ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆震荡调整,跌势放缓,今日吉林省贸易粮国产大豆销售2025年产大豆3200吨,全部成交,底价3960元/ 吨，成交均价4325元/吨，溢价365元/吨，吉林贸易粮太豆销售量和价格表现好。目前国产大豆供应端 ...

LME 不再接受两韩企品牌锌锭，锌短时冲高 ———— 孙芳芳 投资咨询号：Z0018905 国投期货研究院 消息：据 LME 公告，自 2026 年 4 月 14 日起，伦敦金属交易所(LME)将不再接受 韩国锌业有限公司生产的锌品牌 KZ-SHG 99.995、铅品牌 KA-LEAD 以及 Young Poong Corporation 生产的锌品牌 YP-SHG 的仓单注册。 影响：截至 2026 年 1 月 15 日上午收盘，LME 锌高开带动沪锌积极跟涨，外盘锌 价一度高达 3355 美元/吨，沪锌主力最高触及 25645 元/吨。 解读：韩国锌业和 Young Poong 所产锌锭品牌是 LME 的锌注册品牌，但不是上期 所的锌注册品牌。历史数据看，两家公司锌锭年产量在 60-70 万吨，其中约 40 万吨供应 韩国自身需求，其他锌锭用于出口，LME 不再两韩企锌锭品牌，届时可能导致外盘显性 库存进一步回落，但并不会从根本上影响锌锭供求平衡，短期对盘面的推涨，更多是情 绪带动，另外也不排除企业补交材料后，两个品牌重回 LME 的可能，需要警惕资金快进 快出。 近期锌价整体偏强，具体而言可以归结为以下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Propylene**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Polypropylene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Plastic**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Pure Benzene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Styrene**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **PTA**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Short Fiber**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Bottle Chip**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Methanol**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Urea**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **PVC**: ★★☆ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Caustic Soda**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - **Soda Ash**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market) [1] - **Glass**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various chemical products, including supply and demand, inventory, and price movements, and provides investment ratings and suggestions based on these analyses [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and prices rose. Downstream demand was good, driving up the trading center [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction price increased, and the production load was stable. For polypropylene, the futures market was high, but there were concerns about downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fell with oil prices. Supply was abundant, and inventory at ports was high. In the short term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and there were difficulties in de - stocking in the long term [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were in a tight balance, inventory was decreasing, and the export market was good [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. The short - term upward drive for PX weakened, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's price was mainly driven by raw materials, and the processing margin improved [5] - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply increased while overseas supply decreased. In the short term, it was affected by geopolitical factors. In the second quarter, supply and demand might improve, but it was under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber demand was weak, and the price followed the raw materials. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment during the Spring Festival [5] - Bottle - chip production decreased, inventory decreased, and the price followed the raw materials. There was still capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose first and then fell. Overseas production was low, and port inventory was decreasing. However, demand from MTO plants was weakening, and the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down [6] - Urea prices were strong. Compound fertilizer production increased, and the market sentiment was positive. The price was expected to continue to be strong [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC prices fluctuated. Production increased slightly, exports increased, but downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, capacity reduction was expected, and the price center might rise [7] - Caustic soda prices were weak. Inventory was increasing, and the industry was generally losing money. The profit of chlor - alkali integration was expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were weak. Production was increasing, supply pressure was high, and downstream demand was poor. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8] - Glass prices were weak. Inventory was decreasing, but production was losing money, and demand was insufficient. In the long term, supply would decrease, and there might be buying opportunities after a correction [8]