Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆ [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and suggests a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with stable spot sales basis and average spot trading. Pure cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices. - In July 2025, domestic cotton inventory digestion slowed down, expected to improve in August as the peak season approaches. - In July, cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% or 1.48 million tons. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang this year with more planting area and good weather. - Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Due to insufficient precipitation, the sugarcane yield per unit in Brazil decreased. As of the end of June, the cumulative yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil was 79.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.04%. - The production progress this year was slow, leading to a significant year - on - year decrease in sugarcane and sugar production. - The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production increased year - on - year, and the sugar - alcohol ratio is at the upper edge of the historical range, so there is pressure on the upside of US sugar. - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales were fast this year, with inventory decreasing year - on - year and relatively light spot pressure. - The market focus has shifted to imports and the estimated output of the next crushing season. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure of domestic sugar. However, the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and subsequent weather and sugarcane growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The price of early - maturing apples was basically stable, with high - quality apples having a high price and good purchasing enthusiasm from merchants. - The remaining inventory of cold - storage apples was small, and market demand was average. As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the de - stocking volume was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31%. - The market focus has shifted to the estimated output of the new season. Although the western production area was affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the estimated output due to sufficient flower quantity in the production area this year. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market fluctuated. - Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is still heavy rainfall in most Southeast Asian production areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with some plants restarting and some under maintenance or low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased significantly. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished product inventory of tire enterprises increased. - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, with an increase in bonded area inventory and a decrease in general trade inventory. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 11,500 tons, and this week, the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased significantly to 27,300 tons as imported goods arrived. - Overall, demand is average, rubber supply is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures continued to decline. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was stable at 5,450 yuan/ton, the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish decreased by 50 yuan to 4,150 yuan/ton. - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. - In July, domestic social retail data weakened month - on - month, indicating a decline in domestic demand. Currently, port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The external price has rebounded for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot price was small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low. - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 600,000 cubic meters, with good overall outbound conditions. - As of August 15, the total national port log inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. - Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not started yet. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks are affecting the oil market, and short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain. For precious metals, wait for Powell's speech and the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks to find a better entry point. In the base metals market, various metals show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. Agricultural products are influenced by weather, policies, and international trade relations. Financial products like stocks and bonds are affected by geopolitical, monetary policy, and market sentiment factors [2][3][48] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 10 - contract up 0.94%. Sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rose driven by the rebound in crude oil. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia increased, and the inventory in Fujairah decreased. The 8 - month arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June, and FU warehouse receipts decreased by 7,000 tons to 73,710 tons. The high - low sulfur spread narrowed slightly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In China, the import arrival volume and refinery output have increased, and domestic gas is under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by crude oil, the cost advantage of propane is weakened. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation, waiting for the realization of bearish expectations [23] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that officials generally supported keeping rates unchanged, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. With the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks, the upward momentum of gold is insufficient. It is necessary to wait patiently for a better entry point after a correction [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose after hitting an intraday low. The August manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US was better than expected and above the boom - bust line. The market is waiting for the interest - rate stance at the Jackson Hole meeting. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 began to stabilize and rebound, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation of Shanghai zinc. The SMM0 zinc has a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in domestic zinc social inventory. In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium - term, short positions on rebounds are a major strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times, but downstream acceptance of high - price goods is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down. After the concentrated delivery on the third Wednesday, the 0 - 3 - month spread became a discount of $2. The inventory remains at a low level of 1,740 tons. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium oscillated, and the market was active in trading. Downstream material enterprises increased their inquiry enthusiasm. The total market inventory was basically flat at 142,000 tons. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is affected by news of energy - consumption standards and small - furnace capacity elimination, but it has not been confirmed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the improvement space is limited. The market is in oscillation, and there may be a correction if policy expectations cool down [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type re -投料 was raised to 49,000 yuan/ton. In August, production increased significantly, but downstream demand growth was limited, and there was inventory pressure. The market is in a stage of oscillation adjustment supported by policy expectations [14] Building Materials - **Steel**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated weakly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, production decreased, and inventory continued to rise. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased, and inventory also increased. Iron - water production remained high, and the market faced negative - feedback pressure. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity - market trend [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures oscillated overnight. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic arrival volume increased, with port inventory rising. Terminal demand is weak, but short - term demand is supported by high iron - water production. There is an expectation of production reduction around the parade, and the downward pressure on the futures price may increase [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated downward. There is an expectation of production restriction in East - China coking plants. The seventh round of price increase has improved coking profits, and daily production has increased slightly. Coking coal prices also oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines increased, and the spot - auction market had a slightly higher non - trading rate. Both are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and have large price fluctuations [17][18] Agriculture - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, the lack of rain in the US soybean - producing areas may challenge new - season crop growth. The global oil - strong trend may drive soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Bullish factors are emerging, and soybean - meal prices can be cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [36] - **Edible Oils**: Overnight, US soybean oil prices rose sharply. Policy on bio - fuels is expected to have a structural adjustment. Indonesian palm - oil inventory decreased. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. It is advisable to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils, with attention to risk control [37] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply - side variables in the overseas rapeseed market are decreasing, and the focus will shift to the demand side. The import of Australian rapeseed is a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the futures price is expected to rise [38] - **Corn**: The auction of imported corn by CGSGB continued, but the transaction rate was low. The low - price Xinjiang corn affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1, and the government will conduct a 10,000 - ton frozen - pork purchase. This is expected to boost market sentiment, and the previous short - position strategy should be changed to a wait - and - see approach [41] - **Eggs**: Egg futures continued to fall and hit a new low, but still maintained a premium over the spot. Spot prices continued to fall in many places. The far - month contracts are strong due to the logic of capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spot - price performance and the risk of short - covering rebounds [42] Textiles - **Cotton**: US cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and its excellent - rate improved. Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was slow. Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with weak short - term upward momentum. The downstream orders were weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in August. It is advisable to wait and see [43] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is mainly driven by cost. Consider long - position allocation in the medium - term. The long - term over - capacity of the bottle - chip industry limits the repair of processing margins. Attention should be paid to the implementation of petrochemical industry policies [32] Others - **Sugar**: Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market has sufficient supply, and US sugar is under pressure. In China, the import of syrup is low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The 25/26 sugar - production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillated. The remaining cold - storage inventory is small, and early - maturing apples are priced high but with average quality. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in production estimates, and it is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price has rebounded, and domestic supply may remain low. Pulp futures continued to fall, and the port inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see or use an oscillation - range strategy for pulp [46][47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market冲高回落, and small - cap stocks adjusted significantly. The trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. The performance of stock - index futures was divided. Global hedge funds are accelerating their entry into the Chinese stock market. Pay attention to Powell's speech at the central - bank meeting and macro - factors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year contract up 0.34%. The short - term Shibor mostly declined. Treasury - bond prices are under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [49]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend but poor operability on the disk [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term due to weak downstream demand, high iron - water levels, and market sentiment changes. The iron ore market will face increased downward pressure when iron - water production cuts turn from expectation to reality. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by policies and have large price fluctuations. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are also influenced by policies, with silicon iron following the trend of silicon manganese [2][3][4] Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Thread steel shows rising demand but falling production and rising inventory. Hot - rolled coil has improving demand, rising production, and accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level is low, and attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity near the military parade. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is in a strong and volatile state. Supply is strong with potential for seasonal growth, and port inventory is rising. Demand is supported by high iron - water levels in the short - term, but there are expectations of production cuts around the military parade. The downward pressure on the disk increases when production cuts become a reality [3] Coke - The coke futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. There are expectations of production restrictions in East China due to approaching events. The seventh price increase has improved coking profits and slightly increased daily production. Inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by policies with large short - term fluctuations [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market is in a downward - oscillating state. Coal mine production is increasing, and the spot auction market has a slightly higher non - transaction rate. Terminal inventory is flat, and production - end inventory has a slight increase. The price is affected by policies and is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. Demand is supported by high iron - water production. Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices have a slight decline, and the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market is in a weak and volatile state. Iron - water production is slightly decreasing but remains above 240. Export demand is stable at around 30,000 tons. Supply is increasing significantly, and inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is affected by policies and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fibre: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene prices are boosted by improved supply - demand, while polyolefin has different supply - demand situations for polyethylene and polypropylene [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks for different periods. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 for pure benzene, and benzene - styrene has stable supply and limited downstream boost [3]. - The polyester market has various factors affecting different products. PX has positive valuation, ethylene glycol is multi - factor intertwined, short - fibre has positive demand expectations, and bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different performances for methanol and urea. Methanol has weak reality but strong expectation, and urea is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows different trends for PVC and caustic soda. PVC is expected to be weak, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but limited in long - term increase [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is weak. Soda ash has an over - supply situation, and glass has cost support but weak demand [8]. Summary by Categories Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures rose, with positive supply - demand factors such as downstream restocking and supply - side changes [2]. - Polyolefin futures had a mixed performance. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow demand, while polypropylene has short - term supply support and slow demand recovery [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene has a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3 but may face pressure in Q4. It is recommended for monthly - spread band trading [3]. - Styrene has cost support, stable supply, and limited downstream boost, maintaining a consolidation pattern [3]. Polyester - PX has positive valuation due to improved demand expectations. PTA is affected by device news with limited impact [5]. - Ethylene glycol has a mixed situation with increased supply and stable demand, and needs to focus on policy and demand recovery [5]. - Short - fibre has positive demand expectations in the peak season and is recommended for long - term allocation. Bottle chips face long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has weak current conditions but strong expectations, with port inventory issues and changes in supply and demand [6]. - Urea is affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is expected to be weak due to high supply, low demand, and increased export pressure [7]. - Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to demand for restocking but has long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash has an over - supply situation with high inventory at all levels, and its price is under pressure [8]. - Glass has cost support but weak demand, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish/Short-term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs, Eggs (★☆☆), indicating a bias towards a rising or falling trend with drivers for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market [1]. - **Balanced/Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil (☆☆☆), suggesting short - term supply - demand balance and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather, policies, and international trade situations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Product Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures is weak due to increased supply from auctions and weak demand. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is rising. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - In the next two weeks, low temperature and less rain in the US soybean - producing areas pose challenges to new - season crops. The global oil market's strength may boost soybean crushing. In China, the supply in Q4 and Q1 next year is affected by US tariff policies, with a possible supply gap in Q1 next year. The medium - long - term outlook for soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are in a correction. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in June. The market is concerned about the US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions, which has pressured US soybean oil prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The supply side of the overseas rapeseed market is stabilizing, and the focus is shifting to the demand side. China's imports of Australian rapeseed are a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed is likely to be tight in Q4, and the futures price is expected to rise [5]. Corn - Cofco will continue to auction imported corn. The previous auctions had a low transaction rate. The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively sufficient. New - season Xinjiang corn is affecting market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures are in a weak oscillation. The supply in the second half of the year is high, and the price is expected to decline. Policy may support the price at a certain level. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price is high [7]. Eggs - Egg futures have reached a new low. The spot price is weak, and the futures price is still at a premium. The far - month contracts for the first half of next year are strong. Attention should be paid to the spot price and capacity reduction [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - LPG: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and market trend judgments based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and price movements [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.85% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 601,4000 barrels more than expected due to increased exports and decreased imports. The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has stalled, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and then enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rose driven by the rebound in crude oil. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing, and the heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The expected increase in heavy - resource supply from the Middle East still suppresses the market. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 7000 tons to 73,710 tons, and the high - low sulfur spread narrowed slightly at the close [3] Asphalt - Since mid - August, the diversion effect of US imports of Venezuelan oil on North Asian resources has increased. Sinopec's increase in deep - processing load has led to an expanding year - on - year decline in cumulative asphalt production. The shipment volume of sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the growth bottleneck from June to July. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds for toll roads and the cumulative domestic sales of road rollers are showing positive year - on - year trends, indicating potential asphalt demand. The futures are driven by the strengthening of crude oil, with the basis declining. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support due to strong chemical profits. In China, the import arrival volume and refinery releases have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline in naphtha driven by the fall in crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be monitored. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in a low - level volatile state [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities having various price movements and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, policy expectations, and seasonal factors. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities based on their specific situations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. US EIA crude oil inventories dropped by 601,400 barrels last week due to increased exports and decreased imports. The geopolitical situation has uncertainties, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and consider short positions later [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Middle - East's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments to Asia are increasing. The inventory of heavy residue fuel oil in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively pressured, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [20] - **Asphalt**: After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it may divert North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has decreased year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, demand is expected to recover. The BU contract is expected to fluctuate between 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and the domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that officials generally supported keeping rates unchanged. Gold's upward drive is insufficient. It is recommended to wait patiently for a pull - back to enter the market [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rebounded. The Fed's minutes were in line with market expectations. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has shrunk, and it is recommended to hold short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate. The downstream start - up rate has stabilized, and the inventory is likely to remain at a low level this year. It will mainly oscillate in the short term [4] - **Zinc**: Due to overseas smelting capacity constraints, a large amount of imported ore has flowed in. The domestic smelter's production enthusiasm is high after profit repair. The SHFE zinc price is expected to face resistance on rebounds [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in the mid - to - late stage of a rebound. The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced products is poor. It is recommended to actively enter short positions [9] - **Tin**: The tin market has increased differences. The fundamentals are strong, but there are concerns about medium - to - long - term demand. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10] - **Ferroalloys** - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal. The weekly output has increased, and the inventory has not accumulated [17] - **Silicon Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon manganese. The supply has increased significantly, and the demand is fair. The on - balance - sheet inventory has decreased slightly [18] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price hit the lower limit after a gap - down opening. The market is focused on the expectations after the shutdown of small - scale plants. The fundamentals have limited guidance on prices, and it is recommended to control risks [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price edged down. The market is in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic". The previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price edged down. The policy is expected to support the price, but there is a risk of a correction if the policy expectation weakens [13] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increased export pressure and high supply. Caustic soda is running strongly, supported by short - term replenishment demand, but the long - term supply pressure remains [28] - **PX & PTA**: The market was strong due to news. The short - term supply is stable, and the demand is expected to recover. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The current US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68%, higher than expected. There is less rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas in the next two weeks. In China, the supply of imported soybeans in the far - month is uncertain. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean pod numbers are increasing in some areas. The market is concerned about the bio - fuel exemption decision of the US EPA. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The overseas rapeseed market has little fluctuation. The Australian rapeseed export is limited before the new crop is launched in November. The rapeseed futures prices are expected to have a weak rebound in the short term [37] - **Cotton**: The US cotton good - to - excellent rate has increased. The Brazilian cotton harvest is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating, and the short - term upward momentum is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. In China, the domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The uncertainty of the 25/26 Guangxi sugar production has increased [43] Others - **Shipping**: The spot freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is declining, and the overall situation is judged to be weak. The 12 - month contract is relatively firm, but it may also be affected by the weak spot rate [19] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded strongly. The market style is to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors. Follow the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue, the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and domestic policy details [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve is expected to steepen due to market risk - preference changes and other factors [48]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices rose overnight, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by 6.014 million barrels due to increased exports and decreased imports. The negotiation of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has stalled again, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil shipped from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing continuously. The heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June despite the decline in Russia's shipment volume. The expectation of increased supply of heavy resources from the Middle East still exerts relative pressure on the market [20]. - After the US resumed importing oil from Venezuela, the diversion effect on North Asian resources is expected to gradually emerge. Sinopec's cumulative asphalt production has shown an expanding year-on-year decline due to the increase in deep processing load. As the "Golden September and Silver October" construction peak season approaches, road demand is expected to pick up. The spot price of asphalt is supported by the low year-on-year basis in South China and the center of the spot price in Shandong has moved down. The unilateral price of BU follows the fluctuation of SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the October contract expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - The overseas market of liquefied petroleum gas has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the arrival volume of imports and the release of refineries have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by the fall of crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be concerned. The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that officials generally supported keeping interest rates unchanged, believing that interest rates are not far from the neutral level. Recent progress in Russia-Ukraine related talks has led to insufficient driving force for the continuous upward movement of gold. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper rebounded overnight after a period of oscillating decline, closing slightly below the MA60 moving average. The content of the Fed's minutes basically met market expectations, and most members were still more concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The price of domestic spot copper was reported at 78,770 yuan yesterday. The spread between refined and scrap copper has shrunk to within 1,000 yuan, the operating rate of the scrap copper recycling industry is low, and refined copper consumption has replaced scrap copper. The copper market is still cautiously evaluating the risk of economic growth, and short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper should be held [3]. - SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. The downstream operating rate has stabilized, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off-season may be approaching. The inventory is likely to remain at a relatively low level this year. SHFE aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy oscillates following SHFE aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 19,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. It has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price, and the cross-variety spread between the spot and AL may gradually narrow [5]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the SHFE warehouse receipts have been continuously increasing. The supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot indexes in various regions are declining. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and the 3,000 yuan integer mark provides support [6]. - Constrained by overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally regarded as facing pressure on the upside during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policy. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rebounds should be maintained [7]. - Due to the constraints on overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally expected to face pressure during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policies. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [7]. - The loss of recycled lead has deepened, and there are more enterprises reducing or suspending production. The SMM refined-scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lead price. Whether the weak consumption can form a bottom-up negative feedback to force the upstream raw material prices down is the key to the decline of the lead price. Given the different tax policies in various regions and the still existing difficulty in cross-provincial transportation of scrap batteries, the price of scrap batteries remains resilient. The downside space of SHFE lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. As the start of the school season approaches, it is advisable to hold long positions with a stop-loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - SHFE nickel is in the middle to late stage of the rebound, and investors are advised to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive weeks. However, the downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced stainless steel products remains poor. In addition, the production schedule of stainless steel in August is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. There is still some uncertainty in the market. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,200 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 125 yuan. The price support from the upstream has slightly rebounded recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel-iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Attention should be paid to the signs of the end of de-stocking [9]. - The tin price oscillated overnight. The inventory of LME tin for concentrated delivery has increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium has converged to $32. The market divergence in the tin market has increased. On the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively strong. In July, the physical import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased again, the customs clearance of Burmese tin ore was at a low level, and the domestic tin raw materials were in short supply, and the overseas inventory was low. On the other hand, most base metal varieties are sensitive to long-term demand concerns. Short-term long positions should be held with reference to the MA60 moving average [10]. Group 4: Chemicals - The polycrystalline silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has triggered emotional fluctuations. The "market-oriented" clearance orientation has adjusted the expectations of the capacity policy, but it has reiterated that "selling below cost price" is not allowed, so the downside space of the price is limited. The previous rebound high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level, and the valuation support at the bottom of the market is about 48,000 yuan/ton. In summary, the market is still in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic prevails over fundamental logic" [12]. - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting has reiterated the resistance to low-price competition, and the expectation of policy support still exists. The supply and demand in the fundamentals have both increased, but the improvement is limited. The price in Xinjiang has dropped by another 200 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton (SMM). The market is expected to continue to oscillate. If the policy expectations decline in the future, there will be a certain risk of correction [13]. - The urea market is affected by the news of the third batch of quotas and the relaxation of export country restrictions. The agricultural demand is in the off-season, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is mainly focused on high-phosphorus fertilizers, which generally has a limited boost to the urea market. The production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. There are both potential exports and goods gathering at ports, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The short-term supply and demand of urea are loose, and the market is greatly affected by emotions and export news [23]. - The methanol inventory at ports has been continuously accumulating. The import arrival volume has slightly decreased, the operating rate of MTO plants in the East China coastal area has been continuously low, and there are no plans for复产 in the short term. The port inventory may break through the historical high at the end of the third quarter. The operating load of methanol plants has slightly increased, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased. The inland market is relatively stronger than the port market. The short-term supply and demand weakness in the coastal area will continue. Attention should be paid to the situation of overseas plants and market emotions [24]. - The price of straight-run benzene fluctuated significantly yesterday due to news stimulation and closed with a negative line at night. Recently, the inventory at the pure benzene port has slightly decreased, the import pressure has been relieved, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and increased downstream demand. The supply and demand may face pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band trading on the monthly spread [25]. - The moving average system of the main contract of styrene futures is intertwined, and the market continues to consolidate. Fundamentally, the cost side provides bottom support for styrene, but there is a lack of unilateral driving force. The plants are operating stably, and the market supply is sufficient. The production of downstream three-S products is expected to continue to increase slightly, and they maintain purchasing on dips, but the boost is limited [26]. - The supply of propylene is relatively abundant, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The differentiation of enterprise shipments has intensified, and the offers are mainly slightly discounted. High-end transactions are relatively limited. The supply pressure of polyethylene still exists, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory and are cautious about price increases. The demand side is slowly following up, providing limited support to the market. The supply side of polypropylene still has support. Although there are new plants about to be put into operation, their short-term impact on the market is limited. The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the lack of terminal orders has led to the downstream enterprises maintaining low raw material inventory. The peak-season stocking has not yet started, and the market trading atmosphere is light [27]. - PVC is operating weakly. India has issued a final anti-dumping duty ruling on imported PVC, with a significant increase for mainland China, increasing the export pressure. Although there are more maintenance activities, the overall supply remains at a high level. The overall demand is still insufficient, and the social inventory has been continuously increasing since July. The profit of the chlor-alkali integration is fair, and the cost support is not obvious. With poor demand and high production, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is operating strongly. The non-aluminum downstream in Shandong is taking delivery well, and the purchasing enthusiasm is high. The inventory continues to decrease. A factory in Shandong has started production, and the operating load has increased. The demand from the alumina industry provides fair support. The recent restocking sentiment of the non-aluminum downstream has increased. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking. Supported by short-term restocking demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, the supply pressure remains, and the expected increase in price is limited [28]. - The PX and PTA markets were relatively strong yesterday due to news influence and closed with doji lines at night. The short-term market supply is stable, and there are signs of improvement in the weaving industry, with an expected increase in demand. The supply and demand of PX are expected to improve in the third quarter, and the improvement in valuation will be an important upward driving force for the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the direction of oil prices and the rhythm of demand recovery [29]. - The profit of the ethylene glycol industry is poor. If the industry resolves the problem of petrochemical overcapacity through maintenance in the future, there is a large space for the recovery of the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol. However, the impact of news is short-term. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. Recently, the port inventory has been accumulating, the industry operating rate has increased, and there are signs of improvement in demand. The ethylene glycol market is facing both long and short factors. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the policies and the rhythm of the increase in peak-season demand [30]. - The supply and demand of short fibers are stable, and the market is mainly driven by cost. The new production capacity of short fibers this year is limited, and the increase in peak-season demand will boost the industry's expectations. In the medium term, a long position is recommended, and a positive spread trading strategy on the monthly spread can be considered. The processing margin of bottle chips is oscillating at a low level. Overcapacity is a long-term pressure, which will limit the recovery space of the processing margin of bottle chips. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the petrochemical industry [31]. Group 5: Building Materials - The glass market continues to decline. The weak reality persists, and the spot price continues to decline and inventory accumulates. Due to the military parade in September, the processing operations in the Shahe area have been affected. Recently, the production capacity has not fluctuated much, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still weak year-on-year. Although the market is trading on the weak reality, the cost has increased, and it is expected that the price will not break through the previous low [32]. - The soda ash market has fallen sharply. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory at the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain is all high. The weak reality pattern persists. Yuanxing has future production plans, and the supply shows an increasing trend. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have recently improved, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened, leading to a slight increase in the rigid demand for heavy soda ash. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply of soda ash remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels [34]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The latest good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and it is still at a historically high level for the same period. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main US soybean-producing areas will be generally normal, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. In China, the spot price of soybean meal has increased significantly recently, and the market is continuously concerned about the supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Currently, the sales progress of Brazilian soybeans has exceeded 80%, and the premium is high. Given the unclear situation of Sino-US trade, there are still uncertainties in the far-month supply. The oil mill crushing rate in China is stable, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is limited. Currently, positive factors are gradually emerging. After the Sino-US-Swedish talks, although the mutual addition of tariffs has been postponed, the tariff issue still exists. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors should wait for the callback to enter the market [35]. - The US crop inspection shows that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska has increased year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2003. The number of soybean pods in Indiana has slightly decreased year-on-year but is still higher than the average of the past three years. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week strongly urging the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market, which is crucial for US soybeans. The market expects that the US Environmental Protection Agency will soon make a key decision on the biofuel exemption for refineries. The Trump administration granted exemptions to small refineries in the previous term, and the market is worried that the exemptions will occur again, which has suppressed the price of US soybean oil. The domestic soybean and palm oil markets showed a pattern of reducing positions and correcting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the movement of funds and the guidance of relevant policies. In the medium term, overseas palm oil is in a production reduction cycle. In the long term, the long-term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips, but pay attention to the risk of large price fluctuations after reaching high levels [36]. - The overseas rapeseed market fluctuated little overnight. As new-season crops will be listed one after another and there are few variables

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View The report presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premiums/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on August 21, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. 3) Summary by Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,800, up 30; SMM flat - water copper premium is 120, down 35 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,680, up 160; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 20, up 20. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,220, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 372 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,675, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 100, down 5. Recycled refined lead average price is 16,675, up 50; the price difference between refined and scrap lead is 0, up 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,230, up 60; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 40, down 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 266,800, down 700; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 250, up 610. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 254,800, down 700; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.50% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 120,250, up 200; 1 imported nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract is 400, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,350, up 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2,500, up 100 [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 (with a regional discount of 200 and quality impurity removal) is 9,500, unchanged; 553 silicon spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 940, down 300. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,850, polycrystalline silicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polycrystalline silicon material average price is 49 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,200, down 500; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,660, down 1,980. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 82,900; the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300, unchanged [1]. Analysts - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with从业资格证号 F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with从业资格证号 F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1]. - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel and stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with从业资格证号 F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, studies lead and zinc, with从业资格证号 F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, studies industrial silicon, with从业资格证号 F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]